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Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An accelerated threshold-based back-projection algorithm for Compton camera image reconstruction

Purpose: Compton camera imaging (CCI) systems are currently under investigation for radiotherapy dose reconstruction and verification. The ability of such a system to provide real-time images during dose delivery will be limited by the computational speed of the image reconstruction algorithm. In this work, the authors present a fast and simple method by which to generate an initial back-projected image from acquired CCI data, suitable for use in a filtered back-projection algorithm or as a starting point for iterative reconstruction algorithms, and compare its performance to the current state of the art. Methods: Each detector event in a CCI system describes a conical surface that includes the true point of origin of the detected photon. Numerical image reconstruction algorithms require, as a first step, the back-projection of each of these conical surfaces into an image space. The algorithm presented here first generates a solution matrix for each slice of the image space by solving the intersection of the conical surface with the image plane. Each element of the solution matrix is proportional to the distance of the corresponding voxel from the true intersection curve. A threshold function was developed to extract those pixels sufficiently close to the true intersection to generate a binary intersection curve. This process is repeated for each image plane for each CCI detector event, resulting in a three-dimensional back-projection image. The performance of this algorithm was tested against a marching algorithm known for speed and accuracy. Results: The threshold-based algorithm was found to be approximately four times faster than the current state of the art with minimal deficit to image quality, arising from the fact that a generically applicable threshold function cannot provide perfect results in all situations. The algorithm fails to extract a complete intersection curve in image slices near the detector surface for detector event cones having axes nearly parallel to the image plane. This effect decreases the sum of the image, thereby also affecting the mean, standard deviation, and SNR of the image. All back-projected events associated with a simulated point source intersected the voxel containing the source and the FWHM of the back-projected image was similar to that obtained from the marching method. Conclusions: The slight deficit to image quality observed with the threshold-based back-projection algorithm described here is outweighed by the 75% reduction in computation time. The implementation of this method requires the development of an optimum threshold function, which determines the overall accuracy of the method. This makes the algorithm well-suited to applications involving the reconstruction of many large images, where the time invested in threshold development is offset by the decreased image reconstruction time. Implemented in a parallel-computing environment, the threshold-based algorithm has the potential to provide real-time dose verification for radiation therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity analysis of a geometric calibration method using projection matrices for digital tomosynthesis systems

Purpose: To study the sensitivity of a geometric calibration method using projection matrices for digital tomosynthesis systems. Methods: A generic geometric calibration method for tomographic imaging systems has been presented in our previous work. The method involves a scan of a calibration phantom with multiple markers. Their locations in projection images are detected and are associated with their 3D coordinates to compute 3x4 projection matrices, which can be used in subsequent image reconstruction. The accuracy of geometric calibration may be affected by errors in the input data of marker positions. The effects of errors may depend on the number of markers and the volume surrounded by them in 3D space. This work analyzed the sensitivity of the calibration method to the above factors. A 6 cm CIRS breast research phantom and a prototype breast tomosynthesis system were used for our tests. A high contrast ring and two small speck groups were reconstructed in various testing cases for comparison. To achieve quantitative assessment, a 15x15 point detection mask was adopted for detecting signals and for computing changes between testing cases and the regular geometric calibration. Results: When 3D coordinates and 2D projections of markers were accurate, all tested numbers of markers, 6-44, provided similar high quality reconstructions of the ring and the two speck groups. Errors in marker positions resulted in image degradations and signal changes, which increased with fewer markers and smaller volume surrounded by markers in the 3D object space. Signal changes of small specks were more significant than those of the ring. Errors in marker projections produced drastic image degradations. Coplanar marker placement caused a failure in projection matrix computation. Conclusions: For practical geometric calibration phantom design, ample markers are desired. They need to have a large volumetric coverage in the 3D space and be far from being coplanar. Precise determination of marker projections on detector planes is crucial for accurate geometric calibration and for small object detection using the reconstructed images.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-QI-08: Fourier Properties of Cone Beam CT Projection

Purpose: To explore the Fourier properties of cone beam CT (CBCT) projections and apply the property to directly estimate noise level of CBCT projections without any prior information. Methods: By utilizing the property of Bessel function, we derivate the Fourier properties of the CBCT projections for an arbitrary point object. It is found that there exists a double-wedge shaped region in the Fourier space where the intensity is approximately zero. We further derivate the Fourier properties of independent noise added to CBCT projections. The expectation of the square of the module in any point of the Fourier space is constant and the value approximately equals to noise energy. We further validate the theory in numerical simulations for both a delta function object and a NCAT phantom with different levels of noise added. Results: Our simulation confirmed the existence of the double-wedge shaped region in Fourier domain for the x-ray projection image. The boundary locations of this region agree well with theoretical predictions. In the experiments of estimating noise level, the mean relative error between the theory estimation and the ground truth values is 2.697%. Conclusion: A novel theory on the Fourier properties of CBCT projections has been discovered. Accurate noise level estimation can be achieved by applying this theory directly to the measured CBCT projections. This work was supported in part by NIH(1R01CA154747-01), NSFC((No. 61172163), Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No. 20110201110011) and China Scholarship Council.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

MO-E-18C-02: Hands-On Monte Carlo Project Assignment as a Method to Teach Radiation Physics

Purpose: To present a hands-on project on Monte Carlo methods (MC) recently added to the curriculum and to discuss the students' appreciation. Methods: Since 2012, a 1.5 hour lecture dedicated to MC fundamentals follows the detailed presentation of photon and electron interactions. Students also program all sampling steps (interaction length and type, scattering angle, energy deposit) of a MC photon transport code. A handout structured in a step-by-step fashion guides student in conducting consistency checks. For extra points, students can code a fully working MC simulation, that simulates a dose distribution for 50 keV photons. A kerma approximation to dose deposition is assumed. A survey was conducted to which 10 out of the 14 attending students responded. It compared MC knowledge prior to and after the project, questioned the usefulness of radiation physics teaching through MC and surveyed possible project improvements. Results: According to the survey, 76% of students had no or a basic knowledge of MC methods before the class and 65% estimate to have a good to very good understanding of MC methods after attending the class. 80% of students feel that the MC project helped them significantly to understand simulations of dose distributions. On average, students dedicated 12.5 hours to the project and appreciated the balance between hand-holding and questions/implications. Conclusion: A lecture on MC methods with a hands-on MC programming project requiring about 14 hours was added to the graduate study curriculum since 2012. MC methods produce “gold standard” dose distributions and slowly enter routine clinical work and a fundamental understanding of MC methods should be a requirement for future students. Overall, the lecture and project helped students relate crosssections to dose depositions and presented numerical sampling methods behind the simulation of these dose distributions. Research funding from governments of Canada and Quebec. PP acknowledges partial support by the CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Grant number: 432290)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A method for volumetric imaging in radiotherapy using single x-ray projection

Purpose: It is an intriguing problem to generate an instantaneous volumetric image based on the corresponding x-ray projection. The purpose of this study is to develop a new method to achieve this goal via a sparse learning approach. Methods: To extract motion information hidden in projection images, the authors partitioned a projection image into small rectangular patches. The authors utilized a sparse learning method to automatically select patches that have a high correlation with principal component analysis (PCA) coefficients of a lung motion model. A model that maps the patch intensity to the PCA coefficients was built along with the patch selection process. Based on this model, a measured projection can be used to predict the PCA coefficients, which are then further used to generate a motion vector field and hence a volumetric image. The authors have also proposed an intensity baseline correction method based on the partitioned projection, in which the first and the second moments of pixel intensities at a patch in a simulated projection image are matched with those in a measured one via a linear transformation. The proposed method has been validated in both simulated data and real phantom data. Results: The algorithm is able to identify patches that contain relevant motion information such as the diaphragm region. It is found that an intensity baseline correction step is important to remove the systematic error in the motion prediction. For the simulation case, the sparse learning model reduced the prediction error for the first PCA coefficient to 5%, compared to the 10% error when sparse learning was not used, and the 95th percentile error for the predicted motion vector was reduced from 2.40 to 0.92 mm. In the phantom case with a regular tumor motion, the predicted tumor trajectory was successfully reconstructed with a 0.82 mm error for tumor center localization compared to a 1.66 mm error without using the sparse learning method. When the tumor motion was driven by a real patient breathing signal with irregular periods and amplitudes, the average tumor center error was 0.6 mm. The algorithm robustness with respect to sparsity level, patch size, and presence or absence of diaphragm, as well as computation time, has also been studied. Conclusions: The authors have developed a new method that automatically identifies motion information from an x-ray projection, based on which a volumetric image is generated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-AB-213-01: AAPM Projects and Collaborations in Africa

AAPM projects and collaborations in Africa Adam Shulman (AA-SC Chair) The African Affairs Subcommittee (AA-SC) of the AAPM will present a multi-institutional approach to medical physics support in Africa. Current work to increase the quality of care and level of safety for the medical physics practice in Senegal, Ghana, and Zimbabwe will be presented, along with preliminary projects in Nigeria and Botswana. Because the task of addressing the needs of medical physics in countries across Africa is larger than one entity can accomplish on its own, the AA-SC has taken the approach of joining forces with multiple organizations such as Radiating Hope and TreatSafely (NGO’s), the IAEA, companies like BrainLab, Varian and Elekta, medical volunteers and academic institutions such as NYU and Washington University. Elements of current projects include: 1) Distance training and evaluation of the quality of contouring and treatment planning, teaching treatment planning and other subjects, and troubleshooting using modern telecommunications technology in Senegal, Ghana, and Zimbabwe; 2) Assistance in the transition from 2D to 3D in Senegal and Zimbabwe; 3) Assistance in the transition from 3D to IMRT using in-house compensators in Senegal; 4) Modernizing the cancer center in Senegal and increasing safety and; 5) Training on on 3D techniques in Ghana; 6) Assisting a teaching and training radiation oncology center to be built in Zimbabwe; 7) Working with the ISEP Program in Sub-Saharan Africa; 8) Creating instructional videos on linac commissioning; 9) Working on a possible collaboration to train physicists in Nigeria. Building on past achievements, the subcommittee seeks to make a larger impact on the continent, as the number and size of projects increases and more human resources become available. The State of Medical Physics Collaborations and Projects in Latin America Sandra Guzman (Peru) The lack of Medical Physicists (MP) in many Latin American (LA) countries leads to recruitment of professionals with incomplete education. In most LA countries only one MP responsible for each Center is currently mandated. Currently there is a large disparity among MP training programs and there is significant debate about the standards of MP graduate education in many LA countries. There are no commonly recognized academic programs, not enough clinical training sites and clinical training is not typically considered as part of the MP work. Economic pressures and high workloads also impede the creation of more training centers. The increasing need of qualified MPs require establishing a coordinated system of national Education & Training Centers (ETC), to meet the international standards of education and training in Medical Physics. This shortfall calls for support of organizations such as the IOMP, AAPM, ALFIM, IAEA, etc. Examples from various LA countries, as well as some proposed solutions, will be presented. In particular, we will discuss the resources that the AAPM and its members can offer to support regional programs. The ‘Medical Imaging’ physicist in the emerging world: Challenges and opportunities - Caridad Borrás (WGNIMP Chair) While the role of radiation therapy physicists in the emerging world is reasonably well established, the role of medical imaging physicists is not. The only perceived needs in radiology departments are equipment quality control and radiation protection, tasks that can be done by a technologist or a service engineer. To change the situation, the International Basic Safety Standard, which is adopted/adapted world-wide as national radiation protection regulations, states: “For diagnostic radiological procedures and image guided interventional procedures, the requirements of these Standards for medical imaging, calibration, dosimetry and quality assurance, including the acceptance and commissioning of medical radiological equipment, are fulfilled by or under the oversight of, or with the documented advice of a medical physicist, whose degree of involvement is determined by the complexity of the radiological procedures and the associated radiation risks”. Details on how these requirements can be carried out in resource-limited settings will be described. IAEA support to medical physics in Africa and Latin America: achievements and challenges Ahmed Meghzifene (IAEA) Shortage of clinically qualified medical physicists in radiotherapy and imaging, insufficient and inadequate education and training programs, as well as a lack of professional recognition were identified as the main issues to be addressed by the IAEA. The IAEA developed a series of integrated projects aiming specifically at promoting the essential role of medical physicists in health care, developing harmonized guidelines on dosimetry and quality assurance, and supporting education and clinical training programs. The unique feature of the IAEA approach is support it provides for implementation of guidelines and education programs in Member States through its technical cooperation project. The presentation will summarize IAEA support to Latin America and Africa in the field of medical physics and will highlight how the new International Basic Safety Standards are expected to impact the medical physics practice in low and middle income countries. Learning Objectives: Learn about the shortage of qualified Medical Physicists in Africa and Latin America. Understand the reasons of this shortage. Learn about the ways to improve the situation and AAPM role in this process.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-AB-213-02: Status of Medical Physics Collaborations, and Projects in Latin America

AAPM projects and collaborations in Africa Adam Shulman (AA-SC Chair) The African Affairs Subcommittee (AA-SC) of the AAPM will present a multi-institutional approach to medical physics support in Africa. Current work to increase the quality of care and level of safety for the medical physics practice in Senegal, Ghana, and Zimbabwe will be presented, along with preliminary projects in Nigeria and Botswana. Because the task of addressing the needs of medical physics in countries across Africa is larger than one entity can accomplish on its own, the AA-SC has taken the approach of joining forces with multiple organizations such as Radiating Hope and TreatSafely (NGO’s), the IAEA, companies like BrainLab, Varian and Elekta, medical volunteers and academic institutions such as NYU and Washington University. Elements of current projects include: 1) Distance training and evaluation of the quality of contouring and treatment planning, teaching treatment planning and other subjects, and troubleshooting using modern telecommunications technology in Senegal, Ghana, and Zimbabwe; 2) Assistance in the transition from 2D to 3D in Senegal and Zimbabwe; 3) Assistance in the transition from 3D to IMRT using in-house compensators in Senegal; 4) Modernizing the cancer center in Senegal and increasing safety and; 5) Training on on 3D techniques in Ghana; 6) Assisting a teaching and training radiation oncology center to be built in Zimbabwe; 7) Working with the ISEP Program in Sub-Saharan Africa; 8) Creating instructional videos on linac commissioning; 9) Working on a possible collaboration to train physicists in Nigeria. Building on past achievements, the subcommittee seeks to make a larger impact on the continent, as the number and size of projects increases and more human resources become available. The State of Medical Physics Collaborations and Projects in Latin America Sandra Guzman (Peru) The lack of Medical Physicists (MP) in many Latin American (LA) countries leads to recruitment of professionals with incomplete education. In most LA countries only one MP responsible for each Center is currently mandated. Currently there is a large disparity among MP training programs and there is significant debate about the standards of MP graduate education in many LA countries. There are no commonly recognized academic programs, not enough clinical training sites and clinical training is not typically considered as part of the MP work. Economic pressures and high workloads also impede the creation of more training centers. The increasing need of qualified MPs require establishing a coordinated system of national Education & Training Centers (ETC), to meet the international standards of education and training in Medical Physics. This shortfall calls for support of organizations such as the IOMP, AAPM, ALFIM, IAEA, etc. Examples from various LA countries, as well as some proposed solutions, will be presented. In particular, we will discuss the resources that the AAPM and its members can offer to support regional programs. The ‘Medical Imaging’ physicist in the emerging world: Challenges and opportunities - Caridad Borrás (WGNIMP Chair) While the role of radiation therapy physicists in the emerging world is reasonably well established, the role of medical imaging physicists is not. The only perceived needs in radiology departments are equipment quality control and radiation protection, tasks that can be done by a technologist or a service engineer. To change the situation, the International Basic Safety Standard, which is adopted/adapted world-wide as national radiation protection regulations, states: “For diagnostic radiological procedures and image guided interventional procedures, the requirements of these Standards for medical imaging, calibration, dosimetry and quality assurance, including the acceptance and commissioning of medical radiological equipment, are fulfilled by or under the oversight of, or with the documented advice of a medical physicist, whose degree of involvement is determined by the complexity of the radiological procedures and the associated radiation risks”. Details on how these requirements can be carried out in resource-limited settings will be described. IAEA support to medical physics in Africa and Latin America: achievements and challenges Ahmed Meghzifene (IAEA) Shortage of clinically qualified medical physicists in radiotherapy and imaging, insufficient and inadequate education and training programs, as well as a lack of professional recognition were identified as the main issues to be addressed by the IAEA. The IAEA developed a series of integrated projects aiming specifically at promoting the essential role of medical physicists in health care, developing harmonized guidelines on dosimetry and quality assurance, and supporting education and clinical training programs. The unique feature of the IAEA approach is support it provides for implementation of guidelines and education programs in Member States through its technical cooperation project. The presentation will summarize IAEA support to Latin America and Africa in the field of medical physics and will highlight how the new International Basic Safety Standards are expected to impact the medical physics practice in low and middle income countries. Learning Objectives: Learn about the shortage of qualified Medical Physicists in Africa and Latin America. Understand the reasons of this shortage. Learn about the ways to improve the situation and AAPM role in this process.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-EF-207-08: Improve Cone Beam CT Using a Synchronized Moving Grid, An Inter-Projection Sensor Fusion and a Probability Total Variation Reconstruction

Purpose: To present a cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) system, which uses a synchronized moving grid (SMOG) to reduce and correct scatter, an inter-projection sensor fusion (IPSF) algorithm to estimate the missing information blocked by the grid, and a probability total variation (pTV) algorithm to reconstruct the CBCT image. Methods: A prototype SMOG-equipped CBCT system was developed, and was used to acquire gridded projections with complimentary grid patterns in two neighboring projections. Scatter was reduced by the grid, and the remaining scatter was corrected by measuring it under the grid. An IPSF algorithm was used to estimate the missing information in a projection from data in its 2 neighboring projections. Feldkamp-Davis-Kress (FDK) algorithm was used to reconstruct the initial CBCT image using projections after IPSF processing for pTV. A probability map was generated depending on the confidence of estimation in IPSF for the regions of missing data and penumbra. pTV was finally used to reconstruct the CBCT image for a Catphan, and was compared to conventional CBCT image without using SMOG, images without using IPSF (SMOG + FDK and SMOG + mask-TV), and image without using pTV (SMOG + IPSF + FDK). Results: The conventional CBCT without using SMOG shows apparent scatter-induced cup artifacts. The approaches with SMOG but without IPSF show severe (SMOG + FDK) or additional (SMOG + TV) artifacts, possibly due to using projections of missing data. The 2 approaches with SMOG + IPSF removes the cup artifacts, and the pTV approach is superior than the FDK by substantially reducing the noise. Using the SMOG also reduces half of the imaging dose. Conclusion: The proposed technique is promising in improving CBCT image quality while reducing imaging dose.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-G-BRA-08: Diaphragm Motion Tracking Based On KV CBCT Projections with a Constrained Linear Regression Optimization

Purpose: To develop a novel strategy to extract the respiratory motion of the thoracic diaphragm from kilovoltage cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) projections by a constrained linear regression optimization technique. Methods: A parabolic function was identified as the geometric model and was employed to fit the shape of the diaphragm on the CBCT projections. The search was initialized by five manually placed seeds on a pre-selected projection image. Temporal redundancies, the enabling phenomenology in video compression and encoding techniques, inherent in the dynamic properties of the diaphragm motion together with the geometrical shape of the diaphragm boundary and the associated algebraic constraint that significantly reduced the searching space of viable parabolic parameters was integrated, which can be effectively optimized by a constrained linear regression approach on the subsequent projections. The innovative algebraic constraints stipulating the kinetic range of the motion and the spatial constraint preventing any unphysical deviations was able to obtain the optimal contour of the diaphragm with minimal initialization. The algorithm was assessed by a fluoroscopic movie acquired at anteriorposterior fixed direction and kilovoltage CBCT projection image sets from four lung and two liver patients. The automatic tracing by the proposed algorithm and manual tracking by a human operator were compared in both space and frequency domains. Results: The error between the estimated and manual detections for the fluoroscopic movie was 0.54mm with standard deviation (SD) of 0.45mm, while the average error for the CBCT projections was 0.79mm with SD of 0.64mm for all enrolled patients. The submillimeter accuracy outcome exhibits the promise of the proposed constrained linear regression approach to track the diaphragm motion on rotational projection images. Conclusion: The new algorithm will provide a potential solution to rendering diaphragm motion and ultimately improving tumor motion management for radiation therapy of cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-G-IeP2-15: Virtual Insertion of Digital Kidney Stones Into Dual-Source, Dual- Energy CT Projection Data

Purpose: In order to investigate novel methods to more accurately estimate the mineral composition of kidney stones using dual energy CT, it is desirable to be able to combine digital stones of known composition with actual phantom and patient scan data. In this work, we developed and validated a method to insert digital kidney stones into projection data acquired on a dual-source, dual-energy CT system. Methods: Attenuation properties of stones of different mineral composition were computed using tabulated mass attenuation coefficients, the chemical formula for each stone type, and the effective beam energy at each evaluated tube potential. A previously developed method to insert lesions into x-ray CT projection data was extended to include simultaneous dual-energy CT projections acquired on a dual-source gantry (Siemens Somatom Flash). Digital stones were forward projected onto both detectors and the resulting projections added to the physically acquired sinogram data. To validate the accuracy of the technique, digital stones were inserted into different locations in the ACR CT accreditation phantom; low and high contrast resolution, CT number accuracy and noise properties were compared before and after stone insertion. The procedure was repeated for two dual-energy tube potential pairs in clinical use on the scanner, 80/Sn140 kV and 100/Sn140 kV, respectively. Results: The images reconstructed after the insertion of digital kidney stones were consistent with the images reconstructed from the scanner. The largest average CT number difference for the 4 insert in the CT number accuracy module of the phantom was 3 HU. Conclusion: A framework was developed and validated for the creation of digital kidney stones of known mineral composition, and their projection-domain insertion into commercial dual-source, dual-energy CT projection data. This will allow a systematic investigation of the impact of scan and reconstruction parameters on stone attenuation and dual-energy behavior under rigorously controlled conditions. Dr. McCollough receives research support from Siemens Healthcare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-DE-207B-12: Scatter Correction for Dedicated Cone Beam Breast CT Based On a Forward Projection Model

Purpose: The image quality of dedicated cone-beam breast CT (CBBCT) is fundamentally limited by substantial x-ray scatter contamination, resulting in cupping artifacts and contrast-loss in reconstructed images. Such effects obscure the visibility of soft-tissue lesions and calcifications, which hinders breast cancer detection and diagnosis. In this work, we propose to suppress x-ray scatter in CBBCT images using a deterministic forward projection model. Method: We first use the 1st-pass FDK-reconstructed CBBCT images to segment fibroglandular and adipose tissue. Attenuation coefficients are assigned to the two tissues based on the x-ray spectrum used for imaging acquisition, and is forward projected to simulate scatter-free primary projections. We estimate the scatter by subtracting the simulated primary projection from the measured projection, and then the resultant scatter map is further refined by a Fourier-domain fitting algorithm after discarding untrusted scatter information. The final scatter estimate is subtracted from the measured projection for effective scatter correction. In our implementation, the proposed scatter correction takes 0.5 seconds for each projection. The method was evaluated using the overall image spatial non-uniformity (SNU) metric and the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) with 5 clinical datasets of BI-RADS 4/5 subjects. Results: For the 5 clinical datasets, our method reduced the SNU from 7.79% to 1.68% in coronal view and from 6.71% to 3.20% in sagittal view. The average CNR is improved by a factor of 1.38 in coronal view and 1.26 in sagittal view. Conclusion: The proposed scatter correction approach requires no additional scans or prior images and uses a deterministic model for efficient calculation. Evaluation with clinical datasets demonstrates the feasibility and stability of the method. These features are attractive for clinical CBBCT and make our method distinct from other approaches. Supported partly by NIH R21EB019597, R21CA134128 and R01CA195512.The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reconstruction of implanted marker trajectories from cone-beam CT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling

Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) is a widely used imaging modality for image-guided radiotherapy. Most vendors provide CBCT systems that are mounted on a linac gantry. Thus, CBCT can be used to estimate the actual 3-dimensional (3D) position of moving respiratory targets in the thoracic/abdominal region using 2D projection images. The authors have developed a method for estimating the 3D trajectory of respiratory-induced target motion from CBCT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling. Methods: Because the superior–inferior (SI) motion of a target can be easily analyzed on projection images of a gantry-mounted CBCT system, the authors investigated the interdimensional correlation of the SI motion with left–right and anterior–posterior (AP) movements while the gantry is rotating. A simple linear model and a state-augmented model were implemented and applied to the interdimensional correlation analysis, and their performance was compared. The parameters of the interdimensional correlation models were determined by least-square estimation of the 2D error between the actual and estimated projected target position. The method was validated using 160 3D tumor trajectories from 46 thoracic/abdominal cancer patients obtained during CyberKnife treatment. The authors’ simulations assumed two application scenarios: (1) retrospective estimation for the purpose of moving tumor setup used just after volumetric matching with CBCT; and (2) on-the-fly estimation for the purpose of real-time target position estimation during gating or tracking delivery, either for full-rotation volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in 60 s or a stationary six-field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with a beam delivery time of 20 s. Results: For the retrospective CBCT simulations, the mean 3D root-mean-square error (RMSE) for all 4893 trajectory segments was 0.41 mm (simple linear model) and 0.35 mm (state-augmented model). In the on-the-fly simulations, prior projections over more than 60° appear to be necessary for reliable estimations. The mean 3D RMSE during beam delivery after the simple linear model had established with a prior 90° projection data was 0.42 mm for VMAT and 0.45 mm for IMRT. Conclusions: The proposed method does not require any internal/external correlation or statistical modeling to estimate the target trajectory and can be used for both retrospective image-guided radiotherapy with CBCT projection images and real-time target position monitoring for respiratory gating or tracking.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

(SPT-)LSM theorems from projective non-invertible symmetries

Projective symmetries are ubiquitous in quantum lattice models and can be leveraged to constrain their phase diagram and entanglement structure. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of projective algebras formed by non-invertible symmetries and lattice translations in a generalized 1+1 1 + 1 D quantum XY model based on group-valued qudits. This model is specified by a finite group G G and enjoys a projective \mathsf{Rep}(G)× Z(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) × Z ( G ) and translation symmetry, where symmetry operators obey a projective algebra in the presence of symmetry defects. For invertible symmetries, such projective algebras imply Lieb-Schultz-Mattis (LSM) anomalies. However, this is not generally true for non-invertible symmetries, and we derive a condition on G G for the existence of an LSM anomaly. When this condition is not met, we prove an SPT-LSM theorem: any unique and gapped ground state is necessarily a non-invertible weak symmetry protected topological (SPT) state with non-trivial entanglement, for which we construct an example fixed-point Hamiltonian. The projectivity also affects the dual symmetries after gauging \mathsf{Rep}(G)× Z(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) × Z ( G ) sub-symmetries, giving rise to non-Abelian and non-invertible dipole symmetries, as well as non-invertible translations. We complement our analysis with the SymTFT, where the projectivity causes it to be a topological order non-trivially enriched by translations. Throughout the paper, we develop techniques for gauging \mathsf{Rep}(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) symmetry and inserting its symmetry defects on the lattice, which are applicable to other non-invertible symmetries.

Pace, Salvatore D. (ORCID:0000000306093335)↗

A New Tool for Effective and Efficient Project Management

Organizations routinely handle thousands of projects per year, and it is difficult to manage all these projects concurrently. Too often, projects do not get the attention they need when they need it. Management inattention can lead to late projects or projects with less than desirable content and/or deliverables. This paper discusses the application of Visual Project Management (VPM) as a method to track and manage projects. The VPM approach proved to be a powerful management tool without the overhead and restrictions of traditional management methods.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040

The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System. The report begins with an “Executive summary” that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a “Legislation and regulations” section that discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation and regulations, such as: Updated handling of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for industrial boilers and process heaters; New light-duty vehicle (LDV) greenhouse gas (GHG) and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2017 to 2025; Reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after the court’s announcement of intent to vacate the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR); and Modeling of California’s Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), which allows for representation of a cap-and-trade program developed as part of California’s GHG reduction goals for 2020. The “Issues in focus” section contains discussions of selected energy topics, including a discussion of the results in two cases that adopt different assumptions about the future course of existing policies, with one case assuming the elimination of sunset provisions in existing policies and the other case assuming the elimination of the sunset provisions and the extension of a selected group of existing public policies—CAFE standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits. Other discussions include: oil price and production trends in AEO2013; U.S. reliance on imported liquids under a range of cases; competition between coal and natural gas in electric power generation; high and low nuclear scenarios through 2040; and the impact of growth in natural gas liquids production. The “Market trends” section summarizes the projections for energy markets. The analysis in AEO2013 focuses primarily on a Reference case, Low and High Economic Growth cases, and Low and High Oil Price cases. Results from a number of other alternative cases also are presented, illustrating uncertainties associated with the Reference case projections for energy demand, supply, and prices. Complete tables for the five primary cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Major results from many of the alternative cases are provided in Appendix D. Complete tables for all the alternative cases are available on EIA’s website in a table browser at http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser. AEO2013 projections are based generally on federal, state, and local laws and regulations in effect as of the end of September 2012. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards (and sections of existing legislation that require implementing regulations or funds that have not been appropriated) are not reflected in the projections. In certain situations, however, where it is clear that a law or regulation will take effect shortly after the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is completed, it may be considered in the projection.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Recovery Act: Hydroelectric Facility Improvement Project - Replacement of Current Mechanical Seal System with Rope Packing System

On January 27, 2010 the City of North Little Rock, Arkansas received notification of the awarding of a Department of Energy (DOE) grant totaling $450,000 in funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) under the Project Title: Recovery Act: Hydroelectric Facility Improvement Project – Automated Intake Clearing Equipment and Materials Management. The purpose of the grant was for improvements to be made at the City’s hydroelectric generating facility located on the Arkansas River. Improvements were to be made through the installation of an intake maintenance device (IMD) and the purchase of a large capacity wood grinder. The wood grinder was purchased in order to receive the tree limbs, tree trunks, and other organic debris that collects at the intake of the plant during high flow. The wood grinder eliminates the periodic burning of the waste material that is cleared from the intake and reduces any additional air pollution to the area. The resulting organic mulch has been made available to the public at no charge. Design discussion and planning began immediately and the wood grinder was purchased in July of 2010 and immediately put to work mulching debris that was gathered regularly from the intake of the facility. The mulch is currently available to the public for free. A large majority of the design process was spent in discussion with the Corps of Engineers to obtain approval for drawings, documents, and permits that were required in order to make changes to the structure of the powerhouse. In April of 2011, the City’s Project Engineer, who had overseen the application, resigned and left the City’s employ. A new Systems Mechanical Engineer was hired and tasked with overseeing the project. The transfer of responsibility led to a re-examination of the original assumptions and research upon which the grant proposal was based. At that point, the project went under review and a trip was booked for July 2011 to visit facilities that currently had an IMD installed. This further study of facilities revealed that the implementation of the project as originally described, while proving the benefits described in the original grant application, would likely intensify sand intake. Increased sand intake would lead to an increase in required shutdowns for maintenance and more rapid depreciation of key equipment which would result in a loss of generation capacity. A better solution to the problem, one that continued to meet the criteria for the original grant and ARRA standards, was developed. A supporting day trip was planned to visit other facilities located on the Arkansas River to determine how they were coping with the same strong amounts of sand, silt, and debris. Upon returning from the trip to other Arkansas River facilities it was extremely clear what direction to go in order to most efficiently address the issue of generator capacity and efficiency. Of the plants visited on the Arkansas River, every one of them was running what is called a rope packing shaft sealing system as opposed to mechanical shaft seals, which the facility was running. Rope packing is a time proven sealing method that has been around for centuries. It has proved to perform very well in dirty water situations just like that of the Arkansas River. In April of 2012 a scope change proposal was submitted to the DOE for approval. In August of 2012 the City received word that the change of scope had been approved. Plans were immediately set in motion to begin the conversion from mechanical seals to a packing box at the facility. Contractors arrived on October 1st, 2012 and the project team began unwatering the unit for disassembly. The seal conversion was completed on February 29th, 2013 with start-up of the unit. Further testing and adjusting was done throughout the first two weeks of March.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗