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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Covalently linked HslU hexamers support a probabilistic mechanism that links ATP hydrolysis to protein unfolding and translocation

The HslUV proteolytic machine consists of HslV, a double-ring self-compartmentalized peptidase, and one or two AAA+ HslU ring hexamers that hydrolyze ATP to power the unfolding of protein substrates and their translocation into the proteolytic chamber of HslV. Furthermore, we use genetic tethering and disulfide bonding strategies to construct HslU pseudohexamers containing mixtures of ATPase active and inactive subunits at defined positions in the hexameric ring. Genetic tethering impairs HslV binding and degradation, even for pseudohexamers with six active subunits, but disulfide-linked pseudohexamers do not have these defects, indicating that the peptide tether interferes with HslV interactions. Importantly, pseudohexamers containing different patterns of hydrolytically active and inactive subunits retain the ability to unfold protein substrates and/or collaborate with HslV in their degradation, supporting a model in which ATP hydrolysis and linked mechanical function in the HslU ring operate by a probabilistic mechanism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Optimization Method to Branch and Bound Large SBO State Spaces Under Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment via use of LENDIT Scales and S2R2 Sets

Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been developed and are quite effective in evaluating risk associated with complex systems, but lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. These time and energy scales associated with the transient may vary as a function of transition time to a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems, while complete, results in issues associated with combinatorial explosion. In order to address the combinatorial complexity arising from the number of possible state configurations and discretization of transition times, a characteristic scaling metric (LENDIT – length, energy, number, distribution, information and time) is proposed as a means to describe systems uniformly and thus provide means to describe relational constraints expected in the dynamics of a complex (coupled) systems. Thus when LENDIT is used to characterize four sets – ‘state, system, resource and response’ (S2R2) – describing reactor operations (normal and off-normal), LENDIT and S2R2 in combination have the potential to ‘branch and bound’ the state space investigated by DPRA. In this paper we introduce the concept of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets applied to a branch-and-bound algorithm and apply the methods to a station black out transient (SBO).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic R&D Portfolio Management Applied to Energy Storage

Here this paper proposes a methodology to analyze the potential of several alternative technologies in advancing a research and development portfolio. The methodology considers technology maturation, use case requirements, performance goals, cost projections, and existing research and development (R&D) efforts to predict the impact of various R&D investment tracks across several energy storage technologies. Technology maturation and cost projections are derived from a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation, yielding results that incorporate uncertainty in modeling the impact of future R&D. This framework allows the researcher to perform a robust sensitivity analysis to uncover critical pathways and areas where investment will have a high impact.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic inference of reaction rate parameters from summary statistics

Here, this investigation tackles the probabilistic parameter estimation problem involving the Arrhenius parameters for the rate coefficient of the chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. This is achieved in a Bayesian inference framework that uses indirect data from the literature in the form of summary statistics by approximating the maximum entropy solution with the aid of approximate bayesian computation. The summary statistics include nominal values and uncertainty factors of the rate coefficient, obtained from shock-tube experiments performed at various initial temperatures. The Bayesian framework allows for the incorporation of uncertainty in the rate coefficient of a secondary reaction, namely OH + H 2 → H 2 O + H, resulting in a consistent joint probability density on Arrhenius parameters for the two rate coefficients. It also allows for uncertainty quantification in numerical ignition predictions while conforming with the published summary statistics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated experimental design of safe rampdowns via probabilistic machine learning

Abstract Typically the rampdown phase of a shot consists of a decrease in current and injected power and optionally a change in shape, but there is considerable flexibility in the rate, sequencing, and duration of these changes. On the next generation of tokamaks it is essential that this is done safely as the device could be damaged by the stored thermal and electromagnetic energy present in the plasma. This works presents a procedure for automatically choosing experimental rampdown designs to rapidly converge to an effective rampdown trajectory. This procedure uses probabilistic machine learning methods paired with acquisition functions taken from Bayesian optimization. In a set of 2022 experiments at DIII-D, the rampdown designs produced by our method maintained plasma control down to substantially lower current and energy levels than are typically observed. The actions predicted by the model significantly improved as the model was able to explore over the course of the experimental campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Copacabana: a probabilistic membership assignment method for galaxy clusters

Cosmological analyses using galaxy clusters in optical/near-infrared photometric surveys require robust characterization of their galaxy content. Precisely determining which galaxies belong to a cluster is crucial. In this paper, we present the COlor Probabilistic Assignment of Clusters And BAyesiaN Analysis (Copacabana) algorithm. Copacabana computes membership probabilities for all galaxies within an aperture centred on the cluster using photometric redshifts, colours, and projected radial probability density functions. We use simulations to validate Copacabana and we show that it achieves up to 89 per cent membership accuracy with a mild dependence on photometric redshift uncertainties and choice of aperture size. We find that the precision of the photometric redshifts has the largest impact on the determination of the membership probabilities followed by the choice of the cluster aperture size. We also quantify how much these uncertainties in the membership probabilities affect the stellar mass–cluster mass scaling relation, a relation that directly impacts cosmology. Using the sum of the stellar masses weighted by membership probabilities (⁠μ * ⁠) as the observable, we find that Copacabana can reach an accuracy of 0.06 dex in the measurement of the scaling relation at low redshift for a Legacy Survey of Space and Time type survey. These results indicate the potential of Copacabana and μ * to be used in cosmological analyses of optically selected clusters in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic variable-length segmentation of protein sequences for discriminative motif discovery (DiMotif) and sequence embedding (ProtVecX)

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present peptide-pair encoding (PPE), a general-purpose probabilistic segmentation of protein sequences into commonly occurring variable-length sub-sequences. The idea of PPE segmentation is inspired by the byte-pair encoding (BPE) text compression algorithm, which has recently gained popularity in subword neural machine translation. We modify this algorithm by adding a sampling framework allowing for multiple ways of segmenting a sequence. PPE segmentation steps can be learned over a large set of protein sequences (Swiss-Prot) or even a domain-specific dataset and then applied to a set of unseen sequences. This representation can be widely used as the input to any downstream machine learning tasks in protein bioinformatics. In particular, here, we introduce this representation through protein motif discovery and protein sequence embedding. (i) DiMotif: we present DiMotif as an alignment-free discriminative motif discovery method and evaluate the method for finding protein motifs in three different settings: (1) comparison of DiMotif with two existing approaches on 20 distinct motif discovery problems which are experimentally verified, (2) classification-based approach for the motifs extracted for integrins, integrin-binding proteins, and biofilm formation, and (3) in sequence pattern searching for nuclear localization signal. The DiMotif, in general, obtained high recall scores, while having a comparable F1 score with other methods in the discovery of experimentally verified motifs. Having high recall suggests that the DiMotif can be used for short-list creation for further experimental investigations on motifs. In the classification-based evaluation, the extracted motifs could reliably detect the integrins, integrin-binding, and biofilm formation-related proteins on a reserved set of sequences with high F1 scores. (ii) ProtVecX: we extend k-mer based protein vector (ProtVec) embedding to variable-length protein embedding using PPE sub-sequences. We show that the new method of embedding can marginally outperform ProtVec in enzyme prediction as well as toxin prediction tasks. In addition, we conclude that the embeddings are beneficial in protein classification tasks when they are combined with raw k-mer features. Availability Implementations of our method will be available under the Apache 2 licence at http://llp.berkeley.edu/dimotif and http://llp.berkeley.edu/protvecx .

Asgari, Ehsaneddin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic simulation of quantum circuits using a deep-learning architecture

The fundamental question of how to best simulate quantum systems using conventional computational resources lies at the forefront of condensed matter and quantum computation. It impacts both our understanding of quantum materials and our ability to emulate quantum circuits. Here we present an exact formulation of quantum dynamics via factorized generalized measurements which maps quantum states to probability distributions with the advantage that local unitary dynamics and quantum channels map to local quasistochastic matrices. This representation provides a general framework for using state-of-the-art probabilistic models in machine learning for the simulation of quantum many-body dynamics. Using this framework, we have developed a practical algorithm to simulate quantum circuits using an attention network based on a powerful neural network ansatz responsible for the most recent breakthroughs in natural language processing. We demonstrate our approach by simulating circuits that build Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and linear graph states of up to 60 qubits, as well as a variational quantum eigensolver circuit for preparing the ground state of the transverse field Ising model on several system sizes. Our methodology constitutes a modern machine learning approach to the simulation of quantum physics with applicability both to quantum circuits as well as other quantum many-body systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models for fast and high-fidelity whole-event simulation in high-energy heavy-ion experiments

Artificial intelligence (AI) generative models, such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows, have been widely used and studied as efficient alternatives for traditional scientific simulations. However, they have several drawbacks, including training instability and inability to cover the entire data distribution, especially for regions where data are rare. This is particularly challenging for whole-event, full-detector simulations in high-energy heavy-ion experiments, such as sPHENIX at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and Large Hadron Collider experiments, where thousands of particles are produced per event and interact with the detector. This work investigates the effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) as an AI-based generative surrogate model for the sPHENIX experiment that includes the heavy-ion event generation and response of the entire calorimeter stack. DDPM performance in sPHENIX simulation data is compared with a popular rival, GANs. Results show that both DDPMs and GANs can reproduce the data distribution where the examples are abundant (low-to-medium calorimeter energies). Nonetheless, DDPMs significantly outperform GANs, especially in high-energy regions where data are rare. Additionally, DDPMs exhibit superior stability compared to GANs. The results are consistent between both central and peripheral centrality heavy-ion collision events. Moreover, DDPMs offer a substantial speedup of approximately a factor of 100 compared to the traditional Geant4 simulation method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Error mitigation in variational quantum eigensolvers using tailored probabilistic machine learning

Quantum computing technology has the potential to revolutionize the simulation of materials and molecules in the near future. A primary challenge in achieving near-term quantum advantage is effectively mitigating the noise effects inherent in current quantum processing units (QPUs). This challenge is also decisive in the context of quantum-classical hybrid schemes employing variational quantum eigensolvers (VQEs) that have attracted significant interest in recent years. In this paper, we present a method that employs parametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) within an active learning framework to mitigate noise in quantum computations, focusing on VQEs. Our approach, grounded in probabilistic machine learning, exploits a custom prior based on the VQE ansatz to capture the underlying correlations between VQE outputs for different variational parameters, thereby enhancing both accuracy and efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a two-site Anderson impurity model and a eight-site Heisenberg model, using the IBM open-source quantum computing framework, Qiskit, showcasing substantial improvements in the accuracy of VQE outputs while reducing the number of direct QPU energy evaluations. This paper contributes to the ongoing efforts in quantum-error mitigation and optimization, bringing us a step closer to realizing the potential of quantum computing in quantum matter simulations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Setting the threshold for high throughput detectors: A mathematical approach for ensembles of dynamic, heterogeneous, probabilistic anomaly detectors

Cyber operations now manage a high volume of heterogeneous log data. Anomaly Detection (AD) in such operations involves multiple (e.g., per IP, per data type) ensembles of detectors modeling heterogeneous characteristics (e.g., rate, size, type) often with adaptive online models producing alerts in near real time. Because of the high data volume, setting the threshold for each detector in such a system is an essential yet underdeveloped configuration issue that, if slightly mistuned, can leave the system useless, either producing a myriad of alerts (and flooding downstream systems) or giving none. In this work, we build on the foundations of Ferragut et al. to provide a set of rigorous results for understanding the relationship between threshold values and alert quantities for probabilistic detectors. This informs an algorithm for setting the threshold of multiple, heterogeneous, possibly dynamic detectors completely a priori, in principle. Indeed, if the underlying distribution of the incoming data is known, the algorithm provides provably manageable thresholds. If the distribution is unknown (poorly estimated), our analysis gives insight into how the model distribution differs from the actual distribution, indicating refitting is necessary. We provide empirical experiments, regulating the alert rate of a system with ≈2,500 adaptive detectors scoring over 1.5M events in 5 hours of timestamps. Further, we demonstrate on real network data and detection framework of Harshaw et al. the alternative case, demonstrating that the inability to regulate alerts indicates how the detection model is not a good fit to the data.

Bridges, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Estimation with PVs

The increasing penetration of behind-the-meter PVs causes challenges to maintain voltage security due to the lack of distribution system visibility. This paper proposes a nonlinear autoregressive Gaussian process (NARGP) approach to fuse limited number of SCADA/AMI data together with historical pseudo measurements for distribution node voltage probabilistic estimation. The high-fidelity SCADA data are fused with the low-fidelity AMI and pseudo measurements by the autoregressive algorithm embedded in the Gaussian process. This allows us to use multi-fidelity data to achieve entire distribution system voltage visibility. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 123node system demonstrate that the NARGP method is able to obtain high accuracy in estimating bus voltage and quantifying estimation uncertainties as compared to other approaches.

distribution system estimation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity based Preemptive Voltage Monitoring in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

With increasing penetration of renewable energy and active consumers, control and management of power distribution networks has become challenging. Renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations as their output power depends on weather conditions. Conventional voltage control schemes such as tap changers and capacitor banks lack the foresight required to quickly alleviate voltage violations. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective approaches for predicting and mitigating voltage violations as a result of random fluctuations in power injections. This work proposes a novel voltage monitoring approach based on low-complexity, data-driven probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis. The usefulness of this work is not only in predicting voltage violations in unbalanced distribution grids, but also in opening up the door for optimal voltage control. Using system data and forecasts, the proposed approach predicts the distribution of system node voltages which is then used to to identify nodes that may violate the nominal operational limits with high probability. The method is tested on the IEEE 37 node distribution system considering integrated distributed solar energy sources. The method is validated against the classic load flow based method and offers over 95% accuracy in predicting voltage violations.

Abujubbeh, Mohammad↗