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DOE OSTI2026

Reliability Assessment of Cooling Fans for PV Inverters: Testing, Modeling, and Case Studies

The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters is critical for long-term solar system performance, with cooling fan failures frequently leading to costly downtime. While much research exists on general cooling fan reliability, little attention has been given to fans operating within PV inverters and their unique environmental challenges. Here, this article proposes a comprehensive methodology to address this gap. First, a failure mode and effects analysis is performed on fans to identify the key failure mechanisms in PV applications, their corresponding stressors, and the models necessary for lifetime prediction. Second, an accelerated life test is designed and conducted to collect valuable experimental data for PV inverter fans in a reasonable amount of time. Third, a mathematical conversion of dynamic mission profiles into effective constant stress levels is derived. Fourth, case studies are given, showcasing lifetime estimates that account for geographic variations in mission profile data. The results demonstrate that this integrated approach leads to an accurate reliability assessment for PV inverter cooling fans.

accelerated life testing (ALT)↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Efficacy of Repeat Voltage Holds for Conditioning and Calendar Life Testing of Graphite and Silicon Cells

Voltage-hold (V-hold) protocols have shown promise toward calendar lifetime analysis of cells with graphite (Gr) and silicon (Si) anodes. In this work, repeat V-holds are performed on Gr and Si cells paired with lithium iron phosphate cathodes to delineate their beneficial role in formation and conditioning. We find that V-hold at the top of charge supplements constant current cycling in conditioning the cell to higher capacities for both Gr and Si cells after the first V-hold. A reduced order model provides the irreversible capacity proportions of each V-hold. With each repeat V-hold, parasitic loss of lithium to the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) decreases on both Gr and Si cells. Gr cells show the square-root-of-time capacity loss behavior within 200 h of V-hold, indicative of its fast relaxation and low impact of reference performance test cycles on the SEI growth. Lifetime estimates from repeat V-holds on Gr can reach years. Si exhibits longer transition times from kinetic to diffusion-limited SEI growth, evidenced by the 400 h and 200 h holds showing square-root-of-time and linear behavior, respectively. Lifetime predictions from repeat V-holds on Si only reach 1–2 months, highlighting its limitations. Recommended duration of V-holds for Si cells should be ≥400 h.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Principle of Maximum Conformality Correctly Resolves the Renormalization-Scheme-Dependence Problem

In this paper, we clarify a serious misinterpretation and consequent misuse of the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which also can serve as a mini-review of PMC. In a recently published article, P. M. Stevenson has claimed that “the PMC is ineffective and does nothing to resolve the renormalization-scheme-dependence problem”, concluding incorrectly that the success of PMC predictions is due to the PMC being a “laborious, ad hoc, and back-door” version of the Principle of Minimal Sensitivity (PMS). We show that such conclusions are incorrect, deriving from a misinterpretation of the PMC and an overestimation of the applicability of the PMS. The purpose of the PMC is to achieve precise fixed-order pQCD predictions, free from conventional renormalization schemes and scale ambiguities. We demonstrate that the PMC predictions satisfy all the self-consistency conditions of the renormalization group and standard renormalization-group invariance; the PMC predictions are thus independent of any initial choice of renormalization scheme and scale. The scheme independence of the PMC is also ensured by commensurate scale relations, which relate different observables to each other. Moreover, in the Abelian limit, the PMC dovetails into the well-known Gell-Mann–Low framework, a method universally revered for its precision in QED calculations. Due to the elimination of factorially divergent renormalon terms, the PMC series not only attains a convergence behavior far superior to that of its conventional counterparts but also deftly curtails any residual scale dependence caused by the unknown higher-order terms. This refined convergence, coupled with its robust suppression of residual uncertainties, furnishes a sound and reliable foundation for estimating the contributions from unknown higher-order terms. Anchored in the bedrock of standard renormalization-group invariance, the PMC simultaneously eradicates the factorial divergences and eliminates superfluous systematic errors, which inversely provides a good foundation for achieving high-precision pQCD predictions. Consequently, owing to its rigorous theoretical underpinnings, the PMC is eminently applicable to virtually all high-energy hadronic processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Higgs trilinear coupling and the scale of new physics

We consider modifications of the Higgs potential due to new physics at high energy scales. These upset delicate cancellations predicted by the Standard Model for processes involving Higgs bosons and longitudinal gauge bosons, and lead to a breakdown of the theory at high energies. We focus on modifications of the Higgs trilinear coupling and use the violation of tree-level unitarity as an estimate of the scale where the theory breaks down. We obtain a completely model-independent bound of $ \underset{\sim }{<} $ 13 TeV for an order-1 modification of the trilinear. We argue that this bound can be saturated only in fine-tuned models, and the scale of new physics is likely to be much lower. The most stringent bounds are obtained from amplitudes involving multiparticle states that are not conventional scattering states. Our results show that a future determination of the Higgs cubic coupling can point to a well-defined scale of new physics that can be targeted and explored at future colliders.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Trends in Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen Core in the X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy of Carbon Nanomaterials: A Guide for the Perplexed

Successful deployment of carbon nanomaterials in many applications, such as sensing, energy storage, and catalysis, relies on the selection, synthesis, and tailoring of the surface properties. Predictive analysis of the behavior is difficult without detailed knowledge of the differences between various carbon nanomaterials and their surface functionalization, thus leaving the selection process to traditional trial-and-error work. The present characterization fills this knowledge gap for carbon nanomaterial surface properties with respect to chemical states and functionalization. We present an overview of the chemical trends that can be extracted from soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) spectra on an extended set of nonideal carbon nanomaterials as a function of sp 2 bonded carbon and bond ordering. In particular, the surface chemical state, the presence of long-range order in the carbon matrix, and a qualitative estimation of the amount of oxygen and nitrogen and their respective functional group formation on the material surface, together with the detailed material fabrication parameters, are reported. The results expand our understanding of carbon nanomaterial functionalization, which can support material selection in practice, provided that the specifications of the application are known.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of hydrodynamic theory to estimate electrical current redistribution in metals

Using the analogy between hydrodynamic and electrical current flow, we study herein how electrical current density j redistributes and amplifies due to two commonly encountered inhomogeneities in metals. First, we consider flow around a spherical resistive inclusion and find significant j amplification, independent of inclusion size. Hence, even μ m-scale inclusions can affect performance in applications by creating localized regions of enhanced Joule heating. Next, we investigate j redistribution due to surface roughness, idealized as a sinusoidal perturbation with amplitude A and wavelength λ . Theory predicts that j amplification is determined by the ratio A / λ , so that even “smooth” surface finishes (i.e., small A ) can generate significant amplification, if λ is correspondingly small. We compare theory with magnetohydrodynamic simulation to illustrate both the utility and limitations of the steady-state theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular simulation of liquid–vapor coexistence for NaCl: Full-charge vs scaled-charge interaction models

Scaled-charge models have been recently introduced for molecular simulations of electrolyte solutions and molten salts to attempt to implicitly represent polarizability. Although these models have been found to accurately predict electrolyte solution dynamic properties, they have not been tested for coexistence properties, such as the vapor pressure of the melt. In this work, we evaluate the vapor pressure of a scaled-charge sodium chloride (NaCl) force field and compare the results against experiments and a non-polarizable full-charge force field. The scaled-charge force field predicts a higher vapor pressure than found in experiments, due to its overprediction of the liquid-phase chemical potential. Reanalyzing the trajectories generated from the scaled-charge model with full charges improves the estimation of the liquid-phase chemical potential but not the vapor pressure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast, differentiable, and extensible big bang nucleosynthesis package

Here, we introduce light isotope nucleosynthesis with JAX (LINX), a new differentiable public big bang nucleosynthesis code designed for fast parameter estimation. By leveraging JAX, LINX achieves both speed and differentiability, enabling the use of Bayesian inference, including gradient-based methods. We discuss the formalism used in LINX for rapid primordial elemental abundance predictions and give examples of how LINX can be used. When combined with differentiable cosmic microwave background power spectrum emulators, LINX can be used for joint cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis analyses without requiring extensive computational resources, including on personal hardware.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ab initio estimation of E 2 strengths in Li 8 and its neighbors by normalization to the measured quadrupole moment

For electric quadrupole (E2) observables, which depend on the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, ab initio no-core configuration interaction (NCCI) calculations converge slowly, making meaningful predictions challenging to obtain. Nonetheless, the calculated values for different E2 matrix elements, particularly those involving levels with closely-related structure (e.g., within the same rotational band) are found to be robustly proportional. This observation suggests that a known value for one observable may be used to determine the overall scale of E2 strengths, and thereby provide predictions for others. In particular, we demonstrate that meaningful predictions for E2 transitions may be obtained by calibration to the ground-state quadrupole moment. Here, we test this approach for well-measured low-lying E2 transitions in 7 Li and 9 Be, then provide predictions for transitions in 8 Li and 9 Li. In particular, we address the 2 + → 1 + transition in 8 Li, for which the reported measured strength exceeds ab initio Green's function Monte Carlo (GFMC) predictions by over an order of magnitude.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for fundamental spectroscopic and thermodynamic data of actinides and lanthanides

Accurately modeling optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities is vital for nuclear forensics applications that depend on characterizing optical emissions from energetic nuclear phenomena. This requires precise knowledge of the individual atomic transition probabilities, known as Einstein A-coefficients, for each emission line. Obtaining these values theoretically or experimentally is often impractical due to the complex electronic structures and the number of transitions involved in atoms relevant to nuclear applications. In this study, we explore the use of machine learning to predict the Einstein A coefficients for atomic transitions. Seven models were evaluated that ranged from deep learning to decision tree algorithms, and found that gradient boosting performed best, specifically the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) architecture, achieving a precision of 86% across transitions of 36 elements. Furthermore, the model was cross-validated using published transition probabilities reported in the literature and applied to estimate Pu plasma temperatures from a previous experiment conducted at Savannah River National Laboratory.

Atomic spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental study of the partitioning of some platinum group elements (Pd and Ir) between orthopyroxene and silicate melt

Past experiments and observations on natural samples have largely focused on the roles of olivine and chromite in controlling the behaviour of the platinum-group elements (PGE) during melting and solidification, whereas other phases, such as pyroxene, have gone largely uncharacterized. Here, to address this, experiments have been done to measure the partitioning of Pd (with a subset of results for Ir), between orthopyroxene and silicate melt at 1340 °C, 0.1 MPa and log fO 2 of FMQ - 1 to FMQ + 6 (FMQ = Fayalite-Magnetite-Quartz). The X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure (XANES) was measured in a subset of experiment glasses. Glass concentrations of Pd (corrected to unit Pd activity) increase from ~6 to ~650 ug/g over the fO 2 range of experiments. The slope of the solubility-fO 2 relation is consistent with Pd 1+ as the dominant oxidation state, with evidence for Pd 0 and Pd 2+ at the lowest and highest experiment fO 2 , respectively. Consistent with this result, the XANES reveal spectral features similar to Pd 0 and Pd 2+ spectral reference materials (specRM) at the most reduced and oxidized synthesis conditions, respectively. Other lines of evidence require the presence of a third melt species, here interpreted to be Pd 1+ . Values of orthopyroxene/melt partition coefficients for Pd (D Pd Opx/melt ) are 0.0051 (+/-0.006) at log fO 2 < ΔFMQ + 3, increasing with fO 2 to a maximum of 0.013 at ~FMQ + 6. Sodium partition coefficients, expected to be similar to Pd, range from 0.0061 (+/-0.00061) at FMQ + 3, increase to 0.007–0.009 at higher fO 2 , but with no clear systematic trend. A value for D Ir Opx-melt of ~0.6 was measured at ~FMQ + 4, indicating significantly more compatible behaviour for Ir relative to Pd. Partitioning results are interpreted in the context of the Blundy-Wood elastic strain model in which the variation in partitioning is related to ionic radius mismatch to an optimal crystallographic site size. Based on the trend in ionic radius with oxidation state, the estimated ionic radius of Pd 1+ in octahedral coordination is similar to Na 1+ , and comparison to previous orthopyroxene-melt partitioning experiments suggests D Pd1+ opx/melt and DNaopx/melt should be nearly identical, consistent with the results of this study. The ionic radius of VI-fold Pd 2+ is close to the optimal M2 site size, so an increased proportion of this species with fO 2 accounts for the larger values of D Pd opx/melt at the highest fO 2 investigated. The much larger partition coefficient for Ir is consistent with the presence of Ir 2+ , whose estimated ionic radius is close to Fe 2+ and Mg 2+ , as well as predictions for the optimal M1 site size. With the assumption that D Pd opx/melt = D Na opx/melt , combined with a revised value for the Pd content of the primitive mantle, a melting model is presented that better reproduces the Pd concentration of high degree melts from sulfide-free mantle sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Loss and Isotopic Fractionation of Alkali Elements during Diffusion-Limited Evaporation from Molten Silicate: Theory and Experiments

Moderately volatile elements (MVEs) are variably depleted in planetary bodies, reflecting the imprints of nebular and planetary processes. Among MVEs, Na, K, and Rb are excellent tracers for unraveling the history of MVE depletion in planetary bodies because they have similar geochemical behaviors but can be chemically fractionated by evaporation and condensation processes. Furthermore, K and Rb are amenable to high-precision isotopic analyses, which can help constrain the conditions of evaporation and condensation. To quantitatively understand why Na, K, and Rb are depleted in planetary bodies, we have carried out vacuum evaporation experiments from basaltic melt at 1200 and 1400 °C to study their evaporation kinetics and isotopic fractionations. We chose this composition because it is relevant to evaporation from small differentiated planetesimals. The Rb isotopic compositions of the evaporation residues were measured by multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS), and the K isotopic compositions were measured along profiles across the residues by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). In the 1400 °C run products, we found that the concentrations of both K and Rb in the run products decreased from core to rim, which was accompanied by a heavy K isotope enrichment near the surface. This indicates that, in this run, evaporation was limited by diffusion. To use those data quantitatively, we derive analytical equations that describe the evaporation rate and isotopic fractionation associated with diffusion-limited evaporation from a sphere, slab, and cylinder in transient and quasi-steady state regimes. This model is used to tease out the roles that diffusive transport in the melt and evaporation at the melt/gas interface play in setting the elemental depletion and isotopic composition of the residue. Under our experimental conditions, volatility decreases in the order of Na, Rb, and K. Using our experimental results in a thermodynamic model, we have estimated the product γΓ of activity coefficients × evaporation coefficients of Na, Rb, and K. The measured isotopic compositions of the residues are well explained using Rayleigh distillations, whereby the relative volatilities of K and Rb isotopes are given by the square root of their masses. We use our results and previously published data to predict how K and Rb could have been lost as a function of temperature, melt composition, oxygen fugacity, and saturation degree relevant to Vesta’s building blocks. We find that the K and Rb depletions, K/Rb elemental fractionation, and δ 41 K and δ 87 Rb isotopic fractionations of Vesta (as sampled by howardite-eucrite-diogenite (HED) meteorites) are best explained by evaporation of submillimeter size objects for 0.1-10 years at moderate temperatures (~1050 °C) in a medium ~98.8% saturated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate core excitation and ionization energies from a state-specific coupled-cluster singles and doubles approach

Here, we investigate the use of orbital-optimized references in conjunction with single-reference coupled-cluster theory with single and double substitutions (CCSD) for the study of core excitations and ionizations of 18 small organic molecules, without the use of response theory or equation-of-motion (EOM) formalisms. Three schemes are employed to successfully address the convergence difficulties associated with the coupled-cluster equations, and the spin contamination resulting from the use of a spin symmetry-broken reference, in the case of excitations. In order to gauge the inherent potential of the methods studied, an effort is made to provide reasonable basis set limit estimates for the transition energies. Overall, we find that the two best-performing schemes studied here for ΔCCSD are capable of predicting excitation and ionization energies with errors comparable to experimental accuracies. The proposed ΔCCSD schemes reduces statistical errors against experimental excitation energies by more than a factor of two when compared to the frozen-core core–valence separated (FC-CVS) EOM-CCSD approach – a successful variant of EOM-CCSD tailored towards core excitations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reionization history constraints from neural network based predictions of high-redshift quasar continua

ABSTRACT Observations of the early Universe suggest that reionization was complete by z ∼ 6, however, the exact history of this process is still unknown. One method for measuring the evolution of the neutral fraction throughout this epoch is via observing the Lyα damping wings of high-redshift quasars. In order to constrain the neutral fraction from quasar observations, one needs an accurate model of the quasar spectrum around Lyα, after the spectrum has been processed by its host galaxy but before it is altered by absorption and damping in the intervening intergalactic medium (IGM). In this paper, we present a novel machine learning approach, using artificial neural networks, to reconstruct quasar continua around Lyα. Our Quasar Spectra from Artificial Neural Network based predictive Regression Algorithm(QSANNdRA) improves the error in this reconstruction compared to the state-of-the-art principal component analysis (PCA) based model in the literature by 14.2 per cent on average, and provides an improvement of 6.1 per cent on average when compared to an extension thereof. In comparison with the extended PCA model, QSANNdRA further achieves an improvement of 22.1 per cent and 16.8 per cent when evaluated on low-redshift quasars most similar to the two high-redshift quasars under consideration, ULAS J1120+0641 at z = 7.0851 and ULAS J1342+0928 at z = 7.5413, respectively. Using our more accurate reconstructions of these two z > 7 quasars, we estimate the neutral fraction of the IGM using a homogeneous reionization model and find $\bar{x}_\mathrm{H\, \small{I}} = 0.25^{+0.05}_{-0.05}$ at z = 7.0851 and $\bar{x}_\mathrm{H\, \small{I}} = 0.60^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$ at z = 7.5413. Our results are consistent with the literature and favour a rapid end to reionization.

Ďurovčíková, Dominika↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imaging of a fluid injection process using geophysical data — A didactic example

In many subsurface industrial applications, fluids are injected into or withdrawn from a geologic formation. It is of practical interest to quantify precisely where, when, and by how much the injected fluid alters the state of the subsurface. Routine geophysical monitoring of such processes attempts to image the way that geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities or electrical conductivity, change through time and space and to then make qualitative inferences as to where the injected fluid has migrated. The more rigorous formulation of the time-lapse geophysical inverse problem forecasts how the subsurface evolves during the course of a fluid-injection application. Using time-lapse geophysical signals as the data to be matched, the model unknowns to be estimated are the multiphysics forward-modeling parameters controlling the fluid-injection process. Properly reproducing the geophysical signature of the flow process, subsequent simulations can predict the fluid migration and alteration in the subsurface. The dynamic nature of fluid-injection processes renders imaging problems more complex than conventional geophysical imaging for static targets. This work intents to clarify the related hydrogeophysical parameter estimation concepts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Weak-lensing Analysis of X-Ray-selected XXL Galaxy Groups and Clusters with Subaru HSC Data

We present a weak-lensing analysis of X-ray galaxy groups and clusters selected from the XMM-XXL survey using the first-year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program. Our joint weaklensing and X-ray analysis focuses on 136 spectroscopically confirmed X-ray-selected systems at 0.031 6 z 6 1.033 detected in the 25 deg2 XXL-N region, which largely overlaps with the HSC-XMM field. With high-quality HSC weak-lensing data, we characterize the mass distributions of individual clusters and establish the concentration–mass (c–M) relation for the XXL sample, by accounting for selection bias and statistical effects and marginalizing over the remaining mass calibration uncertainty. We find the mass-trend parameter of the c–M relation to be β = -0.07 ± 0.28 and the normalization to be c200 = 4.8 ± 1.0 (stat) ± 0.8 (syst) at M 200 = 1014h -1M and z = 0.3. We find no statistical evidence for redshift evolution. Our weaklensing results are in excellent agreement with dark-matter-only c–M relations calibrated for recent ΛCDM cosmologies. The level of intrinsic scatter in c200 is constrained as σ(ln c 200 ) < 24% (99.7% CL), which is smaller than predicted for the full population of ΛCDM halos. This is likely caused in part by the X-ray selection bias in terms of the cool-core or relaxation state. We determine the temperature–mass (TX–M 500 ) relation for a subset of 105 XXL clusters that have both measured HSC lensing masses and X-ray temperatures. The resulting TX–M 500 relation is consistent with the self-similar prediction. Our TX–M 500 relation agrees with the XXL DR1 results at group scales but has a slightly steeper mass trend, implying a smaller mass scale in the cluster regime. The overall offset in the TX–M 500 relation is at the ~ 1.5σ level, corresponding to a mean mass offset of (34 ± 20)%. We also provide bias-corrected, weak-lensing-calibrated M 200 and M 500 mass estimates of individual XXL clusters based on their measured X-ray temperatures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗