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Cost and schedule estimation study report

This report describes the analysis performed and the findings of a study of the software development cost and schedule estimation models used by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD), Goddard Space Flight Center. The study analyzes typical FDD projects, focusing primarily on those developed since 1982. The study reconfirms the standard SEL effort estimation model that is based on size adjusted for reuse; however, guidelines for the productivity and growth parameters in the baseline effort model have been updated. The study also produced a schedule prediction model based on empirical data that varies depending on application type. Models for the distribution of effort and schedule by life-cycle phase are also presented. Finally, this report explains how to use these models to plan SEL projects.

Condon, Steve↗

Three-Gorge Reservoir: A 'Controlled Experiment' for Calibration/Validation of Time-Variable Gravity Signals Detected from Space

With the advances of measurements, modern space geodesy has become a new type of remote sensing for the Earth dynamics, especially for mass transports in the geophysical fluids on large spatial scales. A case in point is the space gravity mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) which has been in orbit collecting gravity data since early 2002. The data promise to be able to detect changes of water mass equivalent to sub-cm thickness on spatial scale of several hundred km every month or so. China s Three-Gorge Reservoir has already started the process of water impoundment in phases. By 2009,40 km3 of water will be stored behind one of the world s highest dams and spanning a section of middle Yangtze River about 600 km in length. For the GRACE observations, the Three-Gorge Reservoir would represent a geophysical controlled experiment , one that offers a unique opportunity to do detailed geophysical studies. -- Assuming a complete documentation of the water level and history of the water impoundment process and aided with a continual monitoring of the lithospheric loading response (such as in area gravity and deformation), one has at hand basically a classical forwardinverse modeling problem of surface loading, where the input and certain output are known. The invisible portion of the impounded water, i.e. underground storage, poses either added values as an observable or a complication as an unknown to be modeled. Wang (2000) has studied the possible loading effects on a local scale; we here aim for larger spatial scales upwards from several hundred km, with emphasis on the time-variable gravity signals that can be detected by GRACE and follow-on missions. Results using the Green s function approach on the PREM elastic Earth model indicate the geoid height variations reaching several millimeters on wavelengths of about a thousand kilometers. The corresponding vertical deformations have amplitude of a few centimeters. In terms of long-wavelength spherical harmonics, the induced geoid height variations are very close to the accuracy of GRACE- recoverable gravity field, while the low-degree (2 to 5) harmonics should be detectable. With a large regional time-variable gravity signal, the Three-Gorge experiment can serve as a useful calibration/verification for GRACE (including the elastic loading effects), and future gravity missions (especially for visco-elastic yielding as well as underground water variations).

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Design and fabrication of the Brayton rotating unit

The Brayton rotating unit (BRU), operating on a gas bearing system, has been designed, fabricated, and demonstrated for use in a closed Brayton cycle space power conversion system. The BRU uses a binary mixture of xenon and helium (molecular weight, 83.8) as the cycle working fluid and bearing lubricating medium and was designed to produce from 2.25 to 10.5 kw sub e of 1200 Hz three-phase electrical power. The single-shaft rotating assembly operates at a design speed of 36,000 rpm and comprises a radial single-stage compressor, a four-pole Rice alternator rotor, and a radial inflow turbine. Four units, a dynamic simulator and three component research packages, were supplied to the NASA Lewis Research Center for performance testing and further development.

Davis, J. E.↗

Calculations on the rate of the ion-molecule reaction between NH3(+) and H2

The rate coefficient for the ion-molecule reaction NH3(+) + H2 yields NH4(+) + H has been calculated as a function of temperature with the use of the statistical phase space approach. The potential surface and reaction complex and transition state parameters used in the calculation have been taken from ab initio quantum chemical calculations. The calculated rate coefficient has been found to mimic the unusual temperature dependence measured in the laboratory, in which the rate coefficient decreases with decreasing temperature until 50-100 K and then increases at still lower temperatures. Quantitative agreement between experimental and theoretical rate coefficients is satisfactory given the uncertainties in the ab initio results and in the dynamics calculations. The rate coefficient for the unusual three-body process NH3(+) + H2 + He yields NH4(+) + H + He has also been calculated as a function of temperature and the result found to agree well with a previous laboratory determination.

Herbst, Eric↗

Reinventing The Design Process: Teams and Models

The future of space mission designing will be dramatically different from the past. Formerly, performance-driven paradigms emphasized data return with cost and schedule being secondary issues. Now and in the future, costs are capped and schedules fixed-these two variables must be treated as independent in the design process. Accordingly, JPL has redesigned its design process. At the conceptual level, design times have been reduced by properly defining the required design depth, improving the linkages between tools, and managing team dynamics. In implementation-phase design, system requirements will be held in crosscutting models, linked to subsystem design tools through a central database that captures the design and supplies needed configuration management and control. Mission goals will then be captured in timelining software that drives the models, testing their capability to execute the goals. Metrics are used to measure and control both processes and to ensure that design parameters converge through the design process within schedule constraints. This methodology manages margins controlled by acceptable risk levels. Thus, teams can evolve risk tolerance (and cost) as they would any engineering parameter. This new approach allows more design freedom for a longer time, which tends to encourage revolutionary and unexpected improvements in design.

Wall, Stephen D.↗

Phasor algorithms of the SIM fringe estimation

The Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) will provide unprecedented micro-arcsecond (pas) precision to search for extra-solar planets and possible life in the universe. SIM will also revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics and evolutions of the local universe through hundred-fold improvements of inertial astrometry measurements. SIM has two so-called guide interferometers to provide stable inertial orientation knowledge of the baseline, and a science interferometer to measure target fringes. The guide and science measurements are based on the fringe phase measurements using a CCD detector. One of the key issues with SIM is to develop a new algorithm for calculation of fringe parameters. Not only astrometric results need that new algorithm, but also real-time fringe tracking requires a new method to calculate phase and visibility fast and accurately. The formulas for the phasor algorithms for fringe estimation are presented. The signal-noise ratio performances of the fringe quadratures are demonstrated. The advantages of phasor algorithms for application of fast fringe tracking and on-board data compression are discussed.

interferometry↗

First Results from an Airborne Ka-band SAR Using SweepSAR and Digital Beamforming

NASA/JPL has developed SweepSAR technique that breaks typical Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) trade space using time-dependent multi-beam DBF on receive. Developing SweepSAR implementation using array-fed reflector for proposed DESDynI Earth Radar Mission concept. Performed first-of-a-kind airborne demonstration of the SweepSAR concept at Ka-band (35.6 GHz). Validated calibration and antenna pattern data sufficient for beam forming in elevation. (1) Provides validation evidence that the proposed Deformation Ecosystem Structure Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) SAR architecture is sound. (2) Functions well even with large variations in receiver gain / phase. Future plans include using prototype DESDynI SAR digital flight hardware to do the beam forming in real-time onboard the aircraft.

Digital Beamforming↗

Solar System Escape Architecture for Revolutionary Science

Our most distance spacecraft, Voyager 1 and Voyager 2, recently reached the boundary of the solar system known as the Heliopause. Beyond this boundary lies interstellar space, and, at tremendous distance, the stars. The Voyager spacecraft have shown us that the Heliopause is a dynamic, rapidly changing environment, varying greatly as the fields and effects emanating from the sun are met by a host of forces pushing in from our nearby galactic neighborhood. This is the region we aim to explore. Specifically we aim to develop a mission architecture and spacecraft concept capable of reaching the Heliopause (approximately100 AU (Astronomical Units)) region in multiple directions of interest, with a variety of scientific instrument suites, within a reasonable timeframe (about 15 years.) This report details our Phase 1 work including science goal definition, trajectory planning, technology research, mission planning, instrument selection, spacecraft design, and more. We present an architecture employing a 250-meter by 250-meter solar sail with a 175 kilogram spacecraft. This spacecraft could carry a variety of instrument suites depending on the destination, time, and other factors. The spin-stabilized spacecraft would powered by a small radioisotope power system (about 20 watts), makes use of an optical communication system, and carries 3 extensible booms for instrument accommodation as visible in the sketch and rendering below. We conclude that it would be reasonable to implement the architecture described herein in the 2020-2030 timeframe based on likely near-term technological and material advances. We are confident that cruise times of around 15 years could be achieved to science-rich destinations. This report details the approach we used to come to these conclusions and identifies some of the steps along the way. We utilized a variety of methodologies involving our full capability at JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) - from small point studies to large collaborative engineering processes. This paper also describes potential industry partnerships and costing information, and includes the methods used to account for our project’s significant deviation from any prior mission in the NASA costing tool database. Outreach and public engagement is an important part of NASA activities. We engaged in several different forms of this outreach and describe them in this report. We conclude with some open questions and a summary of activities we hope to engage in with Phase 2 funding. The entire team would like to thank the NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) program for the opportunity to investigate this fascinating and challenging concept. The Voyager program gives us tantalizing clues as to the nature and behavior of the Heliopause – the boundary between the sun’s influence and the interstellar medium. This information comes from forty-year old instruments designed to study the outer planets. A targeted Heliopause investigation would give insight into the formation of the solar system, the role of the sun in the local interstellar neighborhood, and contribute to human exploration planning by helping to predict periods of low galactic cosmic ray (GCR) penetration into the inner solar system.

Spacecraft↗

Integration and evaluation of a simulator designed to be used within a dynamic prototyping environment

The human computer interface (HCI) prototyping environment is designed to allow developers to rapidly prototype systems so that the interface and functionality of a system can be evaluated and iteratively refined early in the development process. This keeps development costs down by modifying the interface during the requirements definition phase, thus minimizing changes that need to be made during and after flight code development. Problems occur within a system when the user interface is not adequately developed and when designers and developers have an incomplete understanding of the system requirements. A process has been developed for prototyping on-board payload displays for Space Station Freedom. This prototyping process consists of five phases: identification of known requirements, analysis of the requirements, development of a formal design representation and specification, development of the prototype, and evaluation of the prototype. The actual development of the prototype involves prototyping the displays, developing a low fidelity simulator, building of an interface (or communication) between the displays and the simulator, integration of these components, and testing to ensure that the interface does what the developer expects. This research integrates and evaluates a software tool which has been developed to serve as a simulator within the prototyping environment. The tool is being evaluated to determine whether or not it meets the basic requirements which are needed for a low fidelity simulator within this environment. In order to evaluate the architecture and its components, a human computer interface for and a simulator of an automobile have been developed as a prototype. The individual components (i.e., the interface and simulator) have been developed, and the current research was designed to integrate and test the complete working system within the prototyping environment. The following sections will describe the architecture and components of the rapid prototyping environment, the development of a system to assess the environment, and the integration and evaluation of PERCNET.

Moore, Loretta A.↗

Dynamic interpretation of space shuttle photographs: Deepwater internal waves in the western equatorial Indian Ocean

Visible images of deep-ocean internal waves in the western equatorial Indian Ocean taken by the space shuttle Atlantis during mission STS 44 in 1991 are interpreted and analyzed. The internal waves occurred in the form of a multisoliton packet in which there are about a dozen solitons. The average wavelength of the solitons is 1.8 +/- 0.5 km, ranging from 1.1 to 2.6 km. The crest lines are mostly straight and reach as long as 100 km. The distance between two adjacent packets is about 66 km. Using the deepwater soliton theory, we derived that the mean amplitude of the solitons is 25 m, the nonlinear phase speed is 1.7 m/s, and the average period is 18 min. The internal semidiurnal tides are the principal generating mechanism. The oblique collision of two multisoliton packets shown on photograph STS 44-93-103 is examined. The results show that the deep-ocean internal waves obey the general properties of soliton collision. The leading solitons and a few followers exhibit some properties of inelastic collision characterized by a phase shift, and the rest of the solitons exhibits properties of elastic collision under resonance conditions.

Zheng, Quanan↗

Physics of Hard Sphere Experiment: Scattering, Rheology and Microscopy Study of Colloidal Particles

The Physics of Hard Sphere Experiment has two incarnations: the first as a scattering and rheology experiment on STS-83 and STS-94 and the second as a microscopy experiment to be performed in the future on LMM on the space station. Here we describe some of the quantitative and qualitative results from previous flights on the dynamics of crystallization in microgravity and especially the observed interaction of growing crystallites in the coexistance regime. To clarify rheological measurements we also present ground based experiments on the low shear rate viscosity and diffusion coefficient of several hard sphere experiments at high volume fraction. We also show how these experiments will be performed with confocal microscopy and laser tweezers in our lab and as preparation for the phAse II experiments on LMM. One of the main aims of the microscopy study will be the control of colloidal samples using an array of applied fields with an eye toward colloidal architectures. Temperature gradients, electric field gradients, laser tweezers and a variety of switchable imposed surface patterns are used toward this control.

Z D Cheng↗

Structural Modeling of a Five-Meter Thin Film Inflatable Antenna/Concentrator

Inflatable structures have been the subject of renewed interest in recent years for space applications such as communications antennas, solar thermal propulsion, and space solar power. A major advantage of using inflatable structures in space is their extremely light weight. An obvious second advantage is on-orbit deployability and related space savings in the launch configuration. A recent technology demonstrator flight for inflatable structures was the Inflatable Antenna Experiment (IAE) that was deployed on orbit from the Shuttle Orbiter. Although difficulty was encountered in the inflation/deployment phase, the flight was successful overall and provided valuable experience in the use of such structures. Several papers on static structural analysis of inflated cylinders have been written, describing different techniques such as linear shell theory, and nonlinear and variational methods, but very little work had been done in dynamics of inflatable structures until recent years. In 1988 Leonard indicated that elastic beam bending modes could be utilized in approximating lower-order frequencies of inflatable beams. Main, et al. wrote a very significant 1995 paper describing results of modal tests of inflated cantilever beams and the determination of effective material properties. Changes in material properties for different pressures were also discussed, and the beam model was used in a more complex structure. The paper demonstrated that conventional finite element analysis packages could be very useful in the analysis of complex inflatable structures. The purposes of this paper are to discuss the methodology for dynamically characterizing a large 5-meter thin film inflatable reflector, and to discuss the test arrangement and results. Nonlinear finite element modal results are compared to modal test data. The work is significant and of considerable interest to researchers because of 1) the large size of the structure, making it useful for scaling studies, and 2) application of commercially available finite element software for modeling pressurized thin-film structures.

Smalley, Kurt B.↗

Submm-Wave Radiometry for Cloud/Humidity/Precipitation Sciences

Although active sensors can provide cloud profiles at good vertical resolution, clouds are often coupled with dynamics to form fast and organized structures. Lack of understanding of these organized systems leads to great challenge for numerical models. The deficiency is partly reflected, for example, in poorly modeled intraseasonal variations (e.g., MJD). Remote sensing clouds in the middle and upper troposphere has been challenging from space. Vis/IR sensors are sensitive to the topmost cloud layers whereas low-frequency MW techniques are sensitivity to liquid and precipitation at the bottom of cloud layers. The middle-level clouds, mostly in the ice phase, require a sensor that has moderate penetration and sensitivity to cloud scattering, in order to measure cloud water content. Sensors at submm wavelengths provide promising sensitivity and coverage with the spatial resolution needed to measure cloud water content floating in the upper air. In addition, submm-wave sensors are able to provide better measurements of upper-tropospheric humidity than traditional microwave instruments.

Wu, Dong L.↗

An Overall Assessment of JPSS-2 VIIRS Radiometric Performance Based on Pre-Launch Testing

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on-board the second Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) completed its sensor level testing in February 2018. The JPSS-2 (J2) mission is scheduled to launch in 2022 and will be very similar to its two predecessor missions, the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) mission, launched on 28 October 2011 and JPSS-1 (renamed NOAA-20) launched on 18 November 2017. VIIRS instrument has 22 spectral bands covering the spectrum between 0.4 and 12.6 μm: 14 reflective solar bands (RSB), 7 thermal emissive bands (TEB) and one day-night band (DNB). It is a cross-track scanning radiometer capable of providing global measurements through observations at two spatial resolutions, 375 m and 750 m at nadir for the imaging bands and moderate bands, respectively. This paper will provide an overview of J2 VIIRS characterization methodologies and calibration performance during the pre-launch testing phases performed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) VIIRS Characterization Support Team (VCST) to evaluate the at-launch baseline radiometric performance and generate the parameters needed to populate the sensor data record (SDR) Look-Up-Tables (LUTs). Our analysis results confirmed the good performance of J2 VIIRS, in general as good as previous VIIRS instruments and all non-compliances are expected to have low impact on data quality. Key sensor performance metrics include the signal to noise ratio (SNR), radiance dynamic range, reflective and emissive bands calibration performance, polarization sensitivity, spectral performance, response versus scan-angle (RVS) and scattered light response. A set of performance metrics generated during the pre-launch testing program will be compared to both the SNPP and JPSS-1 VIIRS sensors.

Oudrari, Hassan↗

Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins↗

Charged dust in planetary magnetospheres: Hamiltonian dynamics and numerical simulations for highly charged grains

We use a combination of analytical and numerical methods to investigate the dynamics of charged dust grains in planetary magnetospheres. Our emphasis is on obtaining results valid for particles that are not necessarily dominated either by gravitational or electromagnetic forces. A Hamiltonian formulation of the problem yields exact results, for all values of charge-to-mass ratio, when we introduce two constraints: particles remain in the equatorial plane and the magnetic field is taken as axially symmetric. In particular, we obtain locations of equilibrium points, the frequencies of stable periodic orbits, the topology of separatrices in phase space, and the rate of longitudinal drift. These results are significant for specific applications: motion in the nearly aligned dipolar field of Saturn, and the trajectories of arbitrarily charged particles in complex magnetic fields for limited periods of time after ejection from parent bodies. Since the model is restrictive, we also use numerical integrations of the full three-dimensional equations of motion and illustrate under what conditions the constrained problem yields reasonable results. We show that a large fraction of the intermediately charged and highly charged (gyrating) particles will always be lost to a planet's atmosphere within a few hundred hours, for motion through tilted-dipole magnetic fields. We find that grains must have a very high charge-to-mass ratio in order to be mirrored back to the ring plane. Thus, except perhaps at Saturn where the dipole tilt is very small, the likely inhabitants of the dusty ring systems are those particles that are either nearly Keplerian (weakly charged) grains or grains whose charges place them in the lower end of the intermediate charge zone. Fianlly, we demonstrate the effect of plasma drag on the orbits of gyrating particles to be a rapid decrease in gyroradius followed by a slow radial evolution of the guiding center.

Schaffer, L.↗

Defect, Kinetics and Heat Transfer of CDTE Bridgman Growth without Wall Contact

A detached growth mechanism has been proposed, which is similar to that proposed by Duffar et al. and used to study the current detached growth system. From numerical results, we can conclude that detached growth will more likely appear if the growth and wetting angles are large and meniscus is flat. Detached thickness is dependent on growth angle, wetting angle, and gap width and shape of the fins. The model can also explain why the detached growth will not happen for metals in which the growth angle is almost zero. Since the growth angle of CdZnTe cannot be changed, to promote detached growth, the number density of the fins should be low and the wetting angle should be high. Also, a much smaller gap width of the fins should be used in the ground experiment and the detached gap width is much smaller. The shape of the fins has minor influence on detached growth. An integrated numerical model for detached solidification has been developed combining a global heat transfer sub-model and a wall contact sub-model. The global heat transfer sub-model accounts for heat and mass transfer in the multiphase system, convection in the melt, macro-segregation, and interface dynamics. The location and dynamics of the solidification interface are accurately tracked by a multizone adaptive grid generation scheme. The wall contact sub-model accounts for the meniscus dynamics at the three-phase boundary. Simulations have been performed for crystal growth in a conventional ampoule and a designed ampoule to understand the benefits of detached solidification and its impacts on crystalline structural quality, e.g., stoichiometry, macro-segregation, and stress. From simulation results, both the Grashof and Marangoni numbers will have significant effects on the shape of growth front, Zn concentration distribution, and radial segregation. The integrated model can be used in designing apparatus and determining the optimal geometry for detached solidification in space and on the ground.

Larson, D. J., Jr.↗

Vibration of a large space beam under gravity effect

The structural characteristics of a large simply supported beam subjected to gravity are described. The nonlinear governing equations for both the static and the dynamic response are derived and solved analytically. The results show the feasibility of verifying the on-orbit dynamic characteristics of a large space beam by utilizing ground test data of such a structure. It is noted that the gravity effect interacts mostly with the first vibration mode. It was also found that the system of a large space beam subjected to its own weight is a hardening system. The differential equation for the asymmetric mode is a Duffing type equation. However, the governing equation for the symmetric mode has an additional quadratic term. It is this term that causes the maximum vibration amplitudes at different phases to be non-identical.

Shih, C.-F.↗