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NASA NTRS2014

Investigating the Differential Emission Measure and Energetics of Microflares with Combined SDO/AIA and RHESSI Observations

An important question in solar physics is whether solar microflares, the smallest currently observable flare events in X-rays, possess the same energetic properties as large flares. Recent surveys have suggested that microflares may be less efficient particle accelerators than large flares, and hence contribute less non-thermal energy, which may have implications for coronal heating mechanisms. We therefore explore the energetic properties of microflares by combining EUV and X-ray measurements. We present forward-fitting differential emission measure (DEM) analysis of 10 microflares. The fitting is constrained by combining, for the first time, high-temperature Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) observations and flux data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). Two fitting models are tested for the DEM; a Gaussian distribution and a uniform DEM profile. A Gaussian fit proved unable to explain the observations for any of the studied microflares. However, 8 of 10 events studied were reasonably fit by a uniform DEM profile. Hence microflare plasma can be considered to be significantly multi-thermal, and may not be significantly peaked or contain resolvable fine structure, within the uncertainties of the observational instruments. The thermal and non-thermal energy is estimated for each microflare, comparing the energy budget with an isothermal plasma assumption. From the multi-thermal fits the minimum non-thermal energy content was found to average approximately 30% of the estimated thermal energy. By comparison, under an isothermal model the non-thermal and thermal energy estimates were generally comparable. Hence, multi-thermal plasma is an important consideration for solar microflares that substantially alters their thermal and non-thermal energy content.

Sun: flares↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Summer 1997 Eruption at Pillan Patera on Io: Implications for Ultrabasic Lava Flow Emplacement

Galileo data and numerical modeling were used to investigate the summer 1997 eruption at Pillan Patera on Io. This event, now defined as 'Pillanian' eruption style, included a high-temperature (greater than 1600 C), possibly ultrabasic, 140-km-high plume eruption that deposited dark, orthopyroxene-rich pyroclastic material over greater than 125,000 sq km, followed by emplacement of dark flow-like material over greater than 3100 sq km to the north of the caldera. We estimate that the high-temperature, energetic episode of this eruption had a duration of 52- 167 days between May and September 1997, with peak eruption temperatures around June 28, 1997. Galileo 20 m/pixel images of part of the Pillan flow field show a widespread, rough, pitted surface that is unlike any flow surface we have seen before. We suggest that th.s surface may have resulted from (1) a fractured lava crust formed during rapid, low-viscosity lava surging, perhaps including turbulent flow emplacement; (2) disruption of the lava flow by explosive interaction with a volatile-rich substrate: or (3) a combination of 1 and 2 with or without accumulation of pyroclastic materials on the surface. Well-developed flow lobes are observed, suggesting that this is a relatively distal part of the flow field. Shadow measurements at flow margins indicate a thickness of approx. 8-10 m. We have modeled the emplacement of putative ultrabasic flows from the summer 1997 Pillan eruption using constraints from new Galileo data. Results suggest that either laminar sheet flows or turbulent channelized flows could have traveled 50-150 km on a flat. unobstructed surface, which is consistent with the estimated length of the Pillan flow field (approx. 60 km). Our modeling suggests low thermal erosion rates (less than 0.1 m/d), and that the formation of deep (greater than 20 m) erosion channels was unlikely, especially distal to the source. We calculate a volumetric flow rate of approx. 2-7 x l0(exp 3) cu m/s, which is greater than those for typical Mauna Loa/Kilauea flows but comparable to those for the (1783) Laki eruption and the inferred flow rates of the Roza flows in the Columbia River flood basalts. The differences in ultrabasic eruption styles on Earth and Io appear to be controlled by the different eruption environments: Plumes at sites of ultrabasic eruptions on Io suggest strong magma-volatile: interactions on a low-gravity body lacking an atmosphere, whereas the geology at sites of komatiite eruptions on Earth suggest mostly submarine emplacement of thick flows with a pronounced lack of subaerial explosive activity.

Williams, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Summer 1997 Eruption at Pillan Patera on Io: Implications for Ultrabasic Lava Flow Emplacement

Galileo data and numerical modeling were used to investigate the summer 1977 eruption at Pillan Patera on Io. This event, now defined as "Pillanian" eruption style, included a high-temperature (greater than 1600 C), possible ultrabasic , 140-km-high plume eruption that deposited dark, orthopyroxene-rich pyroclastic material over greater than 125,000 sq km, followed by emplacement of dark flow-like material over greater than 3100 sq km to the north of the caldera. We estimate that the high-temperature, energetic episode of this eruption had a duration of 52 - 167 days between May and September 1997, with peak eruption temperatures around June 28, 1997. Galileo 20 m/pixel images of part of the Pillan flow field show a wide-spread, rough, pitted surface that is unlike any flow surface we have seen before. We suggest that this surface may have resulted from: 1. A fractured lava crust formed during rapid, low-viscosity lava surging, perhaps including turbulent flow emplacement. 2. Disruption of the lava flow by explosive interaction with a volatile-rich substrate. or 3. A combination of 1 and 2 with or without accumulation of pyroclastic material on the surface. Well-developed flow lobes are observed, suggesting that this is a relatively distant part of the flow field.Shadow measurements at flow margins indicate a thickness of-8 - 10 m. We have modeled the emplacement of putative ultrabasic flow from the summer 1997 Pillan eruption using constraints from new Galileo data. Results suggest that either laminar sheet flows or turbulent channelized flows could have traveled 50 - 150 km on a flat, unobstructed surface, which is consistent with the estimated length of the Pillan flow field (approx. 60 km). Our modeling suggests low thermal erosion rates (less than 4.1 m/d), and that the formation of deep (greater than 20 m) erosion channels was unlikely, especially distal to the source. We calculate a volumetric flow rate of approx. 2 - 7 x 10(exp 3)cu m/s, which is greater than those for typical Mauna Loa/Kilaueaq flows but comparable to those for the (1783) Laki eruption and the inferred flow rates of the Roza flows in the Columbia River flood basalts. The differences in ultrabasic eruption styles on Earth and Io appear to be controlled by the different eruption environments; Plumes at sites of ultrabasic eruptions on Io suggest strong magma-volatile interactions on a low-gravity body lacking an atmosphere, whereas the geology at sites of komatiite eruptions on Earth suggest mostly submarine emplacement of thick flows with a pronounced lack of subaerial explosive activity.

Williams, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1955

Chemical Action of Halogenated Agents in Fire Extinguishing

The action of halogenated agents in preventing flame propagation in fuel-air mixtures in laboratory tests is discussed in terms of a possible chemical mechanism. The mechanism chosen is that of chain-breaking reactions between agent and active particles (hydrogen and oxygen atoms and hydroxyl radicsls). Data from the literature on the flammability peaks of n-heptane agent-air mixtures are treated. Ratings of agent effectiveness in terms of the fuel equivalent of the agent, based on both fuel and agent concentrations at the peak, are proposed as preferable to ratings in terms of agent concentration alone. These fuel-equivalent ratings are roughly correlated by reactivities assigned to halogen and hydrogen atoms in the agent molecules. It is concluded that the presence of hydrogen in agent need not reduce its fire-fighting ability, provided there is enough halogen to make the agent nonflammable. A method is presented for estimating from quenching-distance data a rate constant for the reaction of agent with active particles. A quantitative result is obtained for methyl bromide. This rate constant predicts the observed peak concentration of methyl bromide quite well. However, more data are needed to prove the validity of the method. The assumption that hal.ogenatedagents act mainly by chain-bresking reactions with active particles is consistent with the experimental facts and should help guide the selection of agents for further tests.

Belles, Frank E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Energetics of Several Large Solar Eruptive Events

We have evaluated the energetics of 38 solar eruptive events observed by a variety of spacecraft instruments between February 2002 and December 2006, as accurately as the observations allow. The measured energetic components include: (1) the radiated energy in the GOES 1 { 8 A band; (2) the total energy radiated from the soft X-ray (SXR) emitting plasma; (3) the peak energy in the SXR-emitting plasma; (4) the bolometric radiated energy over the full duration of the event; (5) the energy in are-accelerated electrons above 20 keV and in ions above 1 MeV; (6) the kinetic and potential energies of the coronal mass ejection (CME); (7) the energy in solar energetic particles (SEPs); and (8) the amount of free (nonpotential) magnetic energy estimated to be available in the pertinent active region. Major conclusions include: (1) the energy radiated by the SXR-emitting plasma exceeds, by about half an order of magnitude, the peak energy content of the thermal plasma that produces this radiation; (2) the energy content in are-accelerated electrons and ions is sufficient to supply the bolometric energy radiated across all wavelengths throughout the event; (3) the energy contents of are-accelerated electrons and ions are comparable; (4) the energy in SEPs is typically a few percent of the CME kinetic energy (measured in the rest frame of the solar wind); and (5) the available magnetic energy is sufficient to power the CME, the are-accelerated particles, and the hot thermal plasma.

Emslie, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Meteoric ion production near Jupiter

Meteoric ion layer formation within the Jovian atmosphere is examined with attention to metallic ion production in the lower ionosphere. The Fe(+) impact ionization rate within the Jovian atmosphere peaks above the mesopause with a magnitude of approximately 0.5 cu cm/sec and is much less than the ambient ionosphere photoionization rates near the late afternoon Pioneer 10 ionosphere occultation. Charge exchange of the ablated neutral Fe atoms with ambient ions can result in an Fe(+) production rate of about 10 cu cm/sec. Ignoring transport, steady state Fe(+) density maxima of about 10,000 or 1,000,000 cu cm can be maintained when Fe(+) loss is through radiative association or radiative recombination respectively. Even if an estimated lower limit to the incident meteoroid flux is used based on a meteoroid spatial density which does not vary with distance from the sun, the corresponding Fe(+) peak densities are 1,000 and 500,000 cu cm, respectively. Meteoric ion densities may thus be important in the Jovian lower ionosphere.

Grebowsky, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Observation of the 63 micron (0 1) emission line in the Orion and Omega Nebulae

The 63 micron fine structure transition P4 : 3Pl yields 3P2 for neutral atomic oxygen was obtained during a series of flights at an altitude of approximately 13.7 km. In the Orion Nebula (M42), the observed line strength was 8 x 10 to the minus 15 power watt cm/2 which is estimated to be approximately 0.3 o/o of the energy radiated at all wavelengths. For the Omega Nebulae (M17), the line strength was 2.4 x 10 to the minus 15 power watt cm/2, and the fraction of the total radiated power was slightly higher. These figures refer to a 4' x 6' field of view centered on the peak for infrared emission from each source. The uncertainty in the line strength is approximately 50% and is caused by variable water vapor absorption along the flight path of the airplane. The line position estimate is 63.2 micron (+0.1, -0.2) micron. The prime uncertainty is due to the uncertain position of the (0 I) emitting regions in the field of view.

Melnick, G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003 - November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cm(sub H2O) (1 cm(sub H2O) similar to 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cm(sub H2O) estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) (1.1 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv ( Sv equivalent to 10(exp 6) m(exp 3) s(exp -1)) of barotropic transport variability per cm(sub H2O) of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40 de - 65 deg S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

oceanographic regions↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

Cheng, Yanyan↗

NASA NTRS2022

Tracking the Impacts of Precipitation Phase Changes Through the Hydrologic Cycle in Snowy Regions: From Precipitation to Reservoir Storage

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by >45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.

Melissa L. Wrzesien↗

NASA NTRS1988

Flood basalt eruptions, comet showers, and mass extinction events

A chronology of initiation dates of the major continental flood basalt episodes has been established from compilation of published K-Ar and Ar-Ar ages of basaltic flows and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales, and the estimated errors of the inititation dates are approximately + or - 4 pct. There are 11 distinct episodes of continental flood basalts known during the past 250 Myr. The data show that flood basalt episodes are generally relatively brief geologic events, with intermittent eruptions during peak output periods lasting ony 2 to 3 Myr or less. Statistical analyses suggest that these episodes may have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 Myr. The initiation dates of the flood basalts are close to the estimated dates of marine mass extinctions and impact-crater clusters. Although a purely internal forcing might be argued for the flood basalt volcanism, quasi-periodic comet impacts may be the trigger for both the flood basalts and the extinctions. Impact cratering models suggest that large-body impactors lead to deep initial cratering, and therefore may cause mantle disturbances and initiate mantle plume activity. The flood basalt episodes commonly mark the initiation or jump of a mantle hotspot, and are often followed by continental rifting and separation. Evidence from dynamical studies of impacts, occurrences of craters and hotspots, and the geochemistry of boundary layers is synthesized to provide a possible model of impact-generated volcanism. Flood basalt eruptions may themselves have severe effects on climate, and possibly on life. Impacts might, as a result, have led to mass extinctions through direct atmospheric disturbances, and/or indirectly through prolonged flood basalt volcanism.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Attenuating Stereo Pixel-Locking via Affine Window Adaptation

For real-time stereo vision systems, the standard method for estimating sub-pixel stereo disparity given an initial integer disparity map involves fitting parabolas to a matching cost function aggregated over rectangular windows. This results in a phenomenon known as 'pixel-locking,' which produces artificially-peaked histograms of sub-pixel disparity. These peaks correspond to the introduction of erroneous ripples or waves in the 3D reconstruction of truly Rat surfaces. Since stereo vision is a common input modality for autonomous vehicles, these inaccuracies can pose a problem for safe, reliable navigation. This paper proposes a new method for sub-pixel stereo disparity estimation, based on ideas from Lucas-Kanade tracking and optical flow, which substantially reduces the pixel-locking effect. In addition, it has the ability to correct much larger initial disparity errors than previous approaches and is more general as it applies not only to the ground plane.

pixel locking effect↗

DOE OSTI2021

Midwest US Croplands Determine Model Divergence in North American Carbon Fluxes

Large uncertainties in North American terrestrial carbon fluxes hinder regional climate projections. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), the essential tools for understanding continental-scale carbon cycle, diverge on whether temperate forests or croplands dominate carbon uptake in North America. Evidence from novel photosynthetic proxies, such as those based on chlorophyll fluorescence, has cast doubt on the “weak cropland, strong forest” carbon uptake patterns simulated by most TBMs. However, no systematic evaluation of TBMs has yet been attempted to pin down space-time patterns that are most consistent with regional CO 2 observational constraints. Here, we leverage atmospheric CO 2 observations and satellite-observed photosynthetic proxies to understand emergent space-time patterns in North American carbon fluxes from a large suite of TBMs and data-driven models. To do so, we evaluate how well the atmospheric signals resulting from carbon flux estimates reproduce the space-time variability in atmospheric CO 2 , as is observed by a network of continuous-monitoring towers over North America. Models with gross or net carbon fluxes that are consistent with the observed CO 2 variability share a salient feature of growing-season carbon uptake in Midwest US croplands. Conversely, the remaining models place most growing-season uptake in boreal or temperate forests. Differences in model explanatory power depend mainly on the simulated annual cycles of cropland uptake—especially, the timing of peak uptake—rather than the distribution of annual mean fluxes across biomes. Our results suggest that improved model representation of cropland phenology is crucial to robust, policy-relevant estimation of North American carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Solar Activity Relations in Energetic Electron Events Measured By the MESSENGER Mission

Aims. We perform a statistical study of the relations between the properties of solar energetic electron (SEE) events measured by the MESSENGER mission from 2010 to 2015 and the parameters of the respective parent solar activity phenomena in order to identify the potential correlations between them. During the time of analysis, the MESSENGER heliocentric distance varied between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Methods. We used a published list of 61 SEE events measured by MESSENGER, which includes information on the near-relativistic electron peak intensities, the peak-intensity energy spectral indices, and the measured X-ray peak intensity of the flares related to the SEE events. Taking advantage of multi-viewpoint remote-sensing observations, we reconstructed, whenever possible, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shock waves; and we determined the three-dimensional (3D) properties (location, speed, and width) of the CMEs and the maximum speed of the 3D CME-driven shocks in the corona. We used different methods (Spearman, Pearson, and a Bayesian approach, namely the Kelly method to linear regression) to estimate the correlation coefficients between the flare intensity, maximum speed at the apex of the CME-driven shock, CME speed at the apex, and CME width with the electron peak intensities and with the energy spectral indices. In this statistical study, we considered and addressed the limitations of the particle instrument on board MESSENGER (elevated background intensity level, anti-Sun pointing). Results. There is an asymmetry to the east in the range of connection angles (CAs) for which the SEE events present the highest peak intensities, where the CA is the longitudinal separation between the footpoint of the magnetic field connecting to the spacecraft and the flare location. Based on this asymmetry, we define a subsample of well-connected events as when −65° ≤ CA ≤ +33°. For the well-connected sample, we find moderate to strong correlations between the near-relativistic electron peak intensity and the 3D CME-driven shock maximum speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.53 ± 0.05; Pearson: cc = 0.65 ± 0.04; Kelly: cc = 0.87 ± 0.20), the flare peak intensity (Spearman: cc = 0.63 ± 0.03; Pearson: cc = 0.59 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.74 ± 0.30), and the 3D CME speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.50 ± 0.04; Pearson: cc = 0.46 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.60 ± 0.39). When including poorly connected events (full sample), the relations between the peak intensities and the solar-activity phenomena are blurred, showing lower correlation coefficients. Conclusions. Based on the comparison of the correlation coefficients presented in this study using near 0.4 au data, (1) both flare and shock-related processes may contribute to the acceleration of near relativistic electrons in large SEE events, in agreement with previous studies based on near 1 au data; and (2) the maximum speed of the CME-driven shock is a better parameter to investigate particle-acceleration-related mechanisms than the average CME speed, as suggested by the stronger correlation with the SEE peak intensities.

Sun↗

NASA NTRS2002

Lightning Return-Stroke Current Waveforms Aloft, From Measured Field Change, Current, and Channel Geometry

Direct current measurements are available near the attachment point from both natural cloud-to-ground lightning and rocket-triggered lightning, but little is known about the rise time and peak amplitude of return-stroke currents aloft. We present, as functions of height, current amplitudes, rise times, and effective propagation velocities that have been estimated with a novel remote-sensing technique from data on 24 subsequent return strokes in six different lightning flashes that were triggering at the NASA Kennedy Space Center, FL, during 1987. The unique feature of this data set is the stereo pairs of still photographs, from which three-dimensional channel geometries were determined previously. This has permitted us to calculate the fine structure of the electric-field-change (E) waveforms produced by these strokes, using the current waveforms measured at the channel base together with physically reasonable assumptions about the current distributions aloft. The computed waveforms have been compared with observed E waveforms from the same strokes, and our assumptions have been adjusted to maximize agreement. In spite of the non-uniqueness of solutions derived by this technique, several conclusions seem inescapable: 1) The effective propagation speed of the current up the channel is usually significantly (but not unreasonably) faster than the two-dimensional velocity measured by a streak camera for 14 of these strokes. 2) Given the deduced propagation speed, the peak amplitude of the current waveform often must decrease dramatically with height to prevent the electric field from being over-predicted. 3) The rise time of the current wave front must always increase rapidly with height in order to keep the fine structure of the calculated field consistent with the observations.

Willett, J. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

National Lightning Detection Network: Summary of Strike Peak Currents

Over the years 2006 through 2017, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) mea- sured about 880 million lightning ground strikes in the continental United States. About 5.5% of these strikes had positive initial peak current. We examine the extreme quantiles of positive and negative peak current. For example, the 99% quantile indicates that 99 out of 100 strokes are less than the quantile. Noting that the estimation of the 99% quantile, e.g., depends on the area and time period under consideration, we examined the e ects of location and time period (both seasonally and yearly) on the determination of 99% quantiles. In the appendices, we detail the uncertainty quanti cation procedure and summarize strikes in January 2016.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗