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At least 649 records · Page 36

Basin scale distributions of dissolved manganese, nickel, zinc and cadmium in the Mediterranean Sea

Samples for dissolved trace metal concentrations were collected during GEOTRACES expedition GA04-N in summer/spring in the Mediterranean Sea, starting in the Atlantic Ocean and sampling both deep basins of the Mediterranean Sea. Outflow of Mediterranean Outflow Water leads to elevated concentrations of Mn, Ni and Zn in the Atlantic Ocean, but a concentration minimum in the Atlantic distribution of Cd. Nevertheless, when comparing the in- and outflow, the Mediterranean is a net source of Cd to the Atlantic Ocean. Surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd are elevated in the Mediterranean relative to the Atlantic Ocean where Ni and Cd gradually increased along the eastward surface water flow path, Zn reached a homogenous concentration in the order of 1 to 1.5 nM, and Mn displayed a patchy surface distribution. The observed differences are attributable to the different dynamics of their biogeochemical cycling, notably the partitioning between the dissolved and particulate phases due to biological uptake, scavenging and possibly organic complexation. The elevated surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Mediterranean are derived from atmospheric deposition, where most likely Zn and Cd are mainly sourced from anthropogenic origin, Mn mostly from lithogenic origin and Ni from both anthropogenic and lithogenic origin. Dissolved Zn and Cd, as well as phosphate and nitrate, display striking inter-basin fractionations with elevated concentrations in the deep water of the western basin compared to the deep eastern basin, without a coinciding increase in the apparent oxygen utilization. Given that physical circulation or contribution from biogenic particulate metals cannot explain the elevated dissolved concentrations, an external non-biological source is required. This source is most likely a vertical flux of metal laden particles dissolving through the water column of the western Mediterranean where these particles, most likely from anthropogenic origin, are derived from either atmospheric deposition or particulate material deposited on the continental shelves that makes its way into the deep basin. Furthermore, to confirm or detect trends in dissolved metal concentrations in the deep basin, regular basin wide assessments of the trace metal distributions in the Mediterranean are needed. The distributions of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Sea of Marmara illustrate that all of these metals can be affected by anthropogenic surface sources and highlight the different susceptibilities of the dissolved metal distributions to supply from remineralization, and to removal through scavenging. This study provides a first baseline to assess future changes and underlines that the Mediterranean marine environment is susceptible to anthropogenic disturbances, with varying effects for different metals due to differing source strengths and biogeochemical cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Paleoclimatic implications of glacial fluctuations in the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy, northern Andes, Colombia, during the Lateglacial and Holocene

The reconstruction of former mountain glaciers from geomorphic mapping and cosmogenic-nuclide surface-exposure dating provides a unique opportunity to infer patterns of past terrestrial climate variability. Tropical mountain glaciers are particularly valuable as there are comparatively few terrestrial climate proxies at equatorial latitudes relative to higher latitudes. As the single largest climate zone on Earth, the tropics play an outsized role in mediating global climate via the ocean-atmosphere transfer of latent heat and water vapor. Nonetheless, there remains a persistent gap in our understanding of how the tropics influenced – or were influenced by – the high-magnitude climate shifts of the Late Pleistocene, and whether this high-energy region simply responded to extratropical forcing or was itself a driver of global climatic change. To help address this knowledge gap, we analyzed geologic evidence for past glacial fluctuations in three adjacent valleys in the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy, the highest subrange of the Eastern Cordillera in the Colombian Andes, to provide a terrestrial record of atmospheric temperature during the latter part of Termination 1. Coupled with geomorphic mapping and paleo-snowline reconstructions, our beryllium-10 glacial chronology indicates that glaciers in the humid inner tropics underwent pronounced growth and gradual decay during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (14.5–12.8 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.8–11.7 ka) periods, respectively, following a trend that, according to directly dated moraine records from throughout both polar hemispheres, appears to have been global. While the specific mechanism(s) behind this large-scale behavior remains to be corroborated, we revisit the hypothesis that ocean-atmosphere heat transfer and water vapor flux are key drivers of abrupt Lateglacial temperature fluctuations. Subsequent to the Lateglacial, deglaciation of the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy accelerated during the Early Holocene, a pattern also observed in other tropical glacier records. More recently, the magnitude of snowline rise and glacier retreat over the last two centuries supports the view that modern tropospheric warming is anomalously strong at least relative to the last ∼16,000 years.

Andes↗

Cloud Morphology Evolution in Arctic Cold‐Air Outbreak: Two Cases During COMBLE Period

Abstract Cloud feedbacks play an important role in Arctic warming. Cloud morphology, for example, cloud size and spatial distributions, is among key factors that directly impact their radiative effects. In this work, we use two cases observed during the Cold‐air Outbreak (CAO) in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) to study the evolution of cloud size distributions as an air mass is advected from the Arctic over a comparatively warm ocean and cloud mesoscale organization changes from rolls to cells. Cloud objects are identified from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance images through an object segmentation procedure and roll breakup is identified by homogeneities in cloud water path (CWP). Roll breakup is found to be accompanied by a local minimum in wind shear and local maxima in cloud size and marine cold air outbreak index. The mean cloud horizontal aspect ratio has weak fetch dependency and is around 2 in roll, transition, and cell regimes. Regardless of distance from the ice edge, smaller clouds (<10 km 2 ) dominate the population number but not cloud cover. Cloud size distributions show bimodality in transition and cell regimes. For clouds with comparable sizes, mean nearest neighbor distances normalized by equivalent cloud radius converge to a single value for all regimes and for all but the smallest clouds, suggesting that clouds of comparable sizes in CAOs are separated by distance proportional to their sizes. The presented statistical results pave the way to evaluating model simulated cloud organizations during CAO events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Offshore Wind Turbines Will Encounter Very Low Atmospheric Turbulence

Turbulence governs the development and erosion of wind farm wakes, which can deplete the offshore wind resource. Therefore, an accurate understanding of atmospheric turbulence is required to support the rapid growth of offshore wind energy. Using 13 months of lidar observations off the coast of Massachusetts, we find that offshore wind plants at the site will experience very low turbulence, quantified as lidar turbulence intensity, especially in summer, when the wind flows from the open ocean. Moreover, the lowest turbulence regimes are often associated with large wind veer conditions, which can impact the effectiveness of wake steering solutions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks

This study assesses the deterministic and probabilistic forecasting skill of a 1-month-lead ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (EANN) based on low-frequency climate oscillation indices. The predictand is the February-April (FMA) rainfall in the Brazilian state of Ceará, which is a prominent subject in climate forecasting studies due to its high seasonal predictability. Additionally, the study proposes combining the EANN with dynamical models into a hybrid multi-model ensemble (MME). The forecast verification is carried out through a leave-one-out cross-validation based on 40 years of data. The EANN forecasting skill is compared with traditional statistical models and the dynamical models that compose Ceará’s operational seasonal forecasting system. A spatial comparison showed that the EANN was among the models with the smallest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Ranked Probability Score (RPS) in most regions. Moreover, the analysis of the area-aggregated reliability showed that the EANN is better calibrated than the individual dynamical models and has better resolution than Multinomial Logistic Regression for above-normal (AN) and below-normal (BN) categories. It is also shown that combining the EANN and dynamical models into a hybrid MME reduces the overconfidence of the extreme categories observed in a dynamically-based MME, improving the reliability of the forecasting system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMBLE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) Measurements of Ice Nucleating Particles Field Campaign Report

During the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE), a project with the overarching goal to shed light on the dynamics and microphysical properties of clouds and precipitation in the high-latitude marine boundary layer during cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), we were tasked with providing and assisting the collection of aerosol filter samples for measuring ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations. Little is known about the properties of CAO cloud systems, how they vary with surface, environmental, and aerosol conditions, the role of cold-air outbreaks in the global atmospheric and ocean circulation, and the accuracy of the treatment of this atmospheric regime in climate models. Uncertainties in climate projections for the arctic and sub-arctic region are large, in part due to the lack of observational guidance to constrain the treatment of aerosol-cloud-precipitation linkages in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using MARCUS, MICRE, and COMBLE data to improve understanding and modeling of cloud, aerosol, and boundary layer processes at high-latitudes

Because it is believed general circulation (GCM) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models underestimate shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean (SO) due to inadequate representations of boundary layer (BL) and cloud processes, it is critical to improve our understanding of key aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and BL processes. Over the north Atlantic Ocean (NA), cold-air outbreaks are common, yet few studies of the aerosol and environmental controls of the associated convective BL clouds exist as needed to develop and evaluate GCM representations. Although processes cannot be observed, cloud and aerosol properties can be measured in-situ or remotely retrieved, which when combined with numerical simulations enable process level understanding required to improve model representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

California - Quality-Controlled Reanalysis and Observational Data for Buoy (130), Morro Bay / Derived Data

This collection provides spatiotemporally paired reanalysis and satellite data to supplement the lidar buoy observations during the California deployments. Point time series of observed and reanalysis data are provided, using inverse distance weighting to geolocate the reanalysis data to the buoy location. Gridded time series of reanalysis data are provided, covering the California coast and extending into the Pacific Ocean. Satellite data in the coastal California region are also provided. The reanalysis collection includes the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP). The satellite data collection is that of Ribal and Young (2019). All datasets are publicly available with the sources provided in the References section.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

California - Quality-controlled Reanalysis and Observational Data for Buoy (120), Humboldt / Derived Data

This collection provides spatiotemporally paired reanalysis and satellite data to supplement the lidar buoy observations during the California deployments. Point time series of observed and reanalysis data are provided, using inverse distance weighting to geolocate the reanalysis data to the buoy location. Gridded time series of reanalysis data are provided, covering the California coast and extending into the Pacific Ocean. Satellite data in the coastal California region are also provided. The reanalysis collection includes the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP). The satellite data collection is that of Ribal and Young (2019). All datasets are publicly available with the sources provided in the References section.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of permeability anisotropy in the upper ocean crust on advective heat transport by a ridge-flank hydrothermal system

Here, in this study, we highlight the importance of permeability anisotropy on the hydrogeological regime of a ridge-flank hydrothermal system. Our study site, North Pond, is a marine sediment pond on ~8 Ma seafloor in the North Atlantic, and represents a low-temperature, end-member ridge-flank hydrothermal system. Previous simulations of North Pond elucidated long-standing hypotheses concerning hydrothermal fluid and heat transport in the upper volcanic crust but failed to fully explain observed patterns of seafloor heat flux in this area. Here we use variography, a geostatistical method, to quantify relations between seafloor heat-flux measurements, and coupled numerical simulations of fluid and heat flow to simulate the hydrogeologic regime. Directional variography shows that heat-flux observations are correlated along-strike of the regional crustal fabric. Three-dimensional simulations that include permeability anisotropy are able to replicate seafloor heat-flux patterns across North Pond. The simulations that result in the best match to thermal data incorporate permeability anisotropy in the horizontal plane. We find that the feedback between permeability anisotropy and the asymmetric geometry of North Pond combine to promote advective removal of heat and mass within the crustal aquifer. These findings suggest that permeability anisotropy in the oceanic crust may influence ridge-flank hydrothermal circulation more broadly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Brachiopod δ 34 S CAS microanalyses indicate a dynamic, climate-influenced Permo-Carboniferous sulfur cycle

Early isotopic studies of sulfate in carbonate minerals (carbonate associated sulfate; CAS) suggested that carbonates can provide a reliable, well-dated archive of the marine sulfur cycle through time. However, subsequent research has shown that diagenetic alteration can impose highly heterogeneous CAS sulfur isotopic compositions (δ 34 S CAS ) among different carbonate phases within sediments. Such alteration necessitates targeted sampling of well-preserved, primary carbonate phases. Here, we present a new record of Carboniferous and Early Permian brachiopod δ 34 S CAS generated from over 130 measurements of microsampled brachiopod shells. Our record refines existing brachiopod δ 34 S CAS records and confirms a large, ~6.5‰ δ 34 S CAS decrease in the Early Carboniferous. Importantly, the record also features a novel 3–5‰ increase in δ 34 S CAS near the Serpukhovian-Bashkirian boundary (323.4 Ma) that coincides with carbonate δ 13 C and δ 18 O increases. Variability in δ 34 S CAS is minor both within (≤0.3‰) and among (≤2‰) individual co-depositional brachiopod specimens. A taxon-specific δ 34 S CAS offset is present one species (Composita subtilita) that also exhibits a δ 13 C offset, supporting the existence of biological “vital effects” on δ 34 S CAS . Geologic evidence and mathematical modeling of the Permo-Carboniferous carbon and sulfur cycles suggest that changes in the burial ratio of organic carbon to pyrite sulfur (R C:S ) are insufficient to explain the observed mid-Carboniferous δ 34 S CAS record. We find that changes in the 34 S depletion of pyrite relative to seawater sulfate ( 34 ε) or in the δ 34 S of the input to the ocean (δ 34 S in ) are also needed. Large additions of O 2 from organic carbon burial during the Permo-Carboniferous cannot be entirely compensated for with sulfur cycle changes; lower than modern late Visean pO 2 and/or additional O 2 sinks are needed to keep pO 2 at plausible levels. Based on the geologic context surrounding our record's mid-Carboniferous δ 34 S CAS increase, we advocate for simultaneous changes in pyrite burial, 34 ε, and δ 34 S in , driven by sea level or tectonically induced changes in environments of sulfur burial, as a viable mechanism to produce rapid seawater δ 34 S changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Airborne Infrasound Makes a Splash

Natural and anthropogenic events may create low frequency sound waves, or infrasound, that can travel for vast distances in planetary atmospheres. They permit the remote monitoring of geophysical activity over local to global scales. Most studies have utilized ground-based recorders, but it is possible to deploy acoustic sensors to altitudes of over 50 km. Such elevated platforms can capture sounds that their surface analogs cannot access. High altitude balloons and low altitude aerostats are filling this observation gap, but key environments remain out of reach of both of these. Furthermore, recent work by den Ouden, Smets et al. (2021) addressed this with a new instrumentation platform—a large seabird flying just above the ocean's surface. Their work demonstrates that, infrasound sensing using heavier-than-air platforms in windy environments is possible, which has implications both terrestrially (e.g., extending sensor networks over the oceans) and extraterrestrially (proposed or planned missions to Venus and Titan).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Prototype acoustic positioning system for the Pacific Ocean Neutrino Experiment

We present the design and initial performance characterization of the prototype acoustic positioning system intended for the Pacific Ocean Neutrino Experiment. It comprises novel piezo-acoustic receivers with dedicated filtering- and amplification electronics installed in P-ONE instruments and is complemented by a commercial system comprised of cabled and autonomous acoustic pingers for sub-sea installation manufactured by Sonardyne Ltd. We performed an in-depth characterization of the acoustic receiver electronics and their acoustic sensitivity when integrated into P-ONE pressure housings. These show absolute sensitivities of up to -125 dB re V2/μPa2 in a frequency range of 10–40 kHz. We furthermore conducted a positioning measurement campaign in the ocean by deploying three autonomous acoustic pingers on the seafloor, as well as a cabled acoustic interrogator and a P-ONE prototype module deployed from a ship. Using a simple peak-finding detection algorithm, we observe high accuracy in the tracking of relative ranging times at approximately 230–280 μs at distances of up to 1600 m, which is sufficient for positioning detectors in a cubic-kilometer detector and which can be further improved with more involved detection algorithms. The tracking accuracy is further confirmed by independent ranging of the Sonardyne system and closely follows the ship's drift in the wind measured by GPS. The absolute positioning shows the same tracking accuracy with its absolute precision only limited by the large uncertainties of the deployed pinger positions on the seafloor.

Data analysis↗

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

We report the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation simulated from CMIP6 models during 1996-2005 are evaluated globally between 60°S and 60°N, as well as at ten selected locations representing three categories of diurnal cycle of precipitation: (1) afternoon precipitation over land, (2) early morning precipitation over ocean, and (3) nocturnal precipitation over land. Three satellite-based and two ground-based rainfall products are used to evaluate the climate models. Globally, the ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows a diurnal phase of 3 to 4 hours earlier over land and 1 to 2 hours earlier over ocean, when compared with the latest satellite products. These biases are in line with what were found in previous versions of climate models but reduced compared to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Analysis at the selected locations complimented with in-situ measurements further reinforces these results. Several CMIP6 models have shown a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of precipitation compared to their CMIP5 counterparts, notably on delaying afternoon precipitation over land. This can be attributed to the use of more sophisticated convective parameterizations. Most models are still unable to capture the nocturnal peak associated with elevated convection and propagating mesoscale convective systems, with a few exceptions that allow convection to be initiated above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. We also quantify an encouraging consistency between the satellite- and ground-based precipitation measurements despite differing spatiotemporal resolutions and sampling periods, which provides confidence in using them to evaluate the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Earth as a Proxy Exoplanet: Deconstructing and Reconstructing Spectrophotometric Light Curves

Point-source spectrophotometric (single-point) light curves of Earth-like planets contain a surprising amount of information about the spatial features of those worlds. Spatially resolving these light curves is important for assessing time-varying surface features and the existence of an atmosphere, which in turn is critical to life on Earth and significant for determining habitability on exoplanets. Given that Earth is the only celestial body confirmed to harbor life, treating it as a proxy exoplanet by analyzing time-resolved spectral images provides a benchmark in the search for habitable exoplanets. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides such an opportunity, with observations of ∼5000 full-disk sunlit Earth images each year at 10 wavelengths with high temporal frequency. We disk-integrate these spectral images to create single-point light curves and decompose them into principal components (PCs). Using machine-learning techniques to relate the PCs to six preselected spatial features, we find that the first and fourth PCs of the single-point light curves, contributing ∼83.23% of the light-curve variability, contain information about low and high clouds, respectively. Surface information relevant to the contrast between land and ocean reflectance is contained in the second PC, while individual land subtypes are not easily distinguishable (<0.1% total light-curve variation). We build an Earth model by systematically altering the spatial features to derive causal relationships to the PCs. This model can serve as a baseline for analyzing Earth-like exoplanets and guide wavelength selection and sampling strategies for future observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame, ↗