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DOE OSTI2023

Polarimetric Geometric Modeling for mm-VLBI Observations of Black Holes

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that has imaged the apparent shadows of the supermassive black holes M87* and Sagittarius A*. Polarimetric data from these observations contain a wealth of information on the black hole and accretion flow properties. In this work, we develop polarimetric geometric modeling methods for mm-VLBI data, focusing on approaches that fit data products with differing degrees of invariance to broad classes of calibration errors. We establish a fitting procedure using a polarimetric “m-ring” model to approximate the image structure near a black hole. By fitting this model to synthetic EHT data from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models, we show that the linear and circular polarization structure can be successfully approximated with relatively few model parameters. We then fit this model to EHT observations of M87* taken in 2017. In total intensity and linear polarization, the m-ring fits are consistent with previous results from imaging methods. In circular polarization, the m-ring fits indicate the presence of event-horizon-scale circular polarization structure, with a persistent dipolar asymmetry and orientation across several days. The same structure was recovered independently of observing band, used data products, and model assumptions. Despite this broad agreement, imaging methods do not produce similarly consistent results. Our circular polarization results, which imposed additional assumptions on the source structure, should thus be interpreted with some caution. Polarimetric geometric modeling provides a useful and powerful method to constrain the properties of horizon-scale polarized emission, particularly for sparse arrays like the EHT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical Observations of the 2023 September 24 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Sample return capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 2023 September 24 arrival of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing, and Global Positioning System technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the data set collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models and augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Properties of Arctic liquid and mixed-phase clouds from shipborne Cloudnet observations during ACSE 2014

This article presents Cloudnet retrievals of Arctic clouds from measurements conducted during a 3-month research expedition along the Siberian shelf during summer and autumn 2014. During autumn, we find a strong reduction in the occurrence of liquid clouds and an increase for both mixed-phase and ice clouds at low levels compared to summer. About 80 % of all liquid clouds observed during the research cruise show a liquid water path below the infrared black body limit of approximately 50 g m -2 . The majority of mixed-phase and ice clouds had an ice water path below 20 g m -2 . Cloud properties are analysed with respect to cloud-top temperature and boundary layer structure. Changes in these parameters have little effect on the geometric thickness of liquid clouds while mixed-phase clouds during warm-air advection events are generally thinner than when such events were absent. Cloud-top temperatures are very similar for all mixed-phase clouds. However, more cases of lower cloud-top temperature were observed in the absence of warm-air advection. Profiles of liquid and ice water content are normalized with respect to cloud base and height. For liquid water clouds, the liquid water content profile reveals a strong increase with height with a maximum within the upper quarter of the clouds followed by a sharp decrease towards cloud top. Liquid water content is lowest for clouds observed below an inversion during warm-air advection events. Most mixed-phase clouds show a liquid water content profile with a very similar shape to that of liquid clouds but with lower maximum values during events with warm air above the planetary boundary layer. The normalized ice water content profiles in mixed-phase clouds look different from those of liquid water content. They show a wider range in maximum values with the lowest ice water content for clouds below an inversion and the highest values for clouds above or extending through an inversion. The ice water content profile generally peaks at a height below the peak in the liquid water content profile – usually in the centre of the cloud, sometimes closer to cloud base, likely due to particle sublimation as the crystals fall through the cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of secondary ice production on Arctic mixed-phase clouds based on ARM observations and CAM6 single-column model simulations

For decades, measured ice crystal number concentrations have been found to be orders of magnitude higher than measured ice-nucleating particle number concentrations in moderately cold clouds. This observed discrepancy reveals the existence of secondary ice production (SIP) in addition to the primary ice nucleation. However, the importance of SIP relative to primary ice nucleation remains highly unclear. Furthermore, most weather and climate models do not represent SIP processes well, leading to large biases in simulated cloud properties. This study demonstrates a first attempt to represent different SIP mechanisms (frozen raindrop shattering, ice–ice collisional breakup, and rime splintering) in a global climate model (GCM). The model is run in the single column mode to facilitate comparisons with the Department of Energy (DOE)'s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations. We show the important role of SIP in four types of clouds during M-PACE (i.e., multilayer, single-layer stratus, transition, and frontal clouds), with the maximum enhancement in ice crystal number concentrations up to 4 orders of magnitude in moderately supercooled clouds. We reveal that SIP is the dominant source of ice crystals near the cloud base for the long-lived Arctic single-layer mixed-phase clouds. The model with SIP improves the occurrence and phase partitioning of the mixed-phase clouds, reverses the vertical distribution pattern of ice number concentrations, and provides a better agreement with observations. The findings of this study highlight the importance of considering SIP in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wildfire smoke triggers cirrus formation: lidar observations over the eastern Mediterranean

The number of intense wildfires may increase further in upcoming years as a consequence of climate change. It is therefore necessary to improve our knowledge about the role of smoke in the climate system, with emphasis on the impact of smoke particles on the evolution of clouds, precipitation, and cloud radiative properties. Presently, one key aspect of research is whether or not wildfire smoke particles can initiate cirrus formation. In this study, we present lidar observations over Limassol, Cyprus, from 27 October to 3 November 2020, when extended wildfire smoke fields crossed the Mediterranean Basin from Portugal to Cyprus. We found strong evidence that aged smoke (organic aerosol particles) originating from wildfires in North America triggered significant ice nucleation at temperatures from -47 to -53 °C and caused the formation of extended cirrus layers. The observations suggest that the ice crystals were nucleated just below the tropopause in the presence of smoke particles serving as ice-nucleating particles (INPs). The main part of the 2–3 km thick smoke layer was, however, in the lower stratosphere just above the tropopause. With actual radiosonde observations of temperature and relative humidity and lidar-derived smoke particle surface area concentrations used as starting values, gravity wave simulations show that the lofting of air by 100–200 m is sufficient to initiate significant ice nucleation on the smoke particles, leading to ice crystal number concentrations of 1–100 L -1 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface-based observations of cold-air outbreak clouds during the COMBLE field campaign

Abstract. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) are characterized by extreme air–sea energy exchanges and low-level convective clouds over large areas in the high-latitude oceans. As such, CAOs are an important component of the Earth's climate system. The CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) deployment of the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) provided the first comprehensive view of CAOs using a suite of ground-based observations at the northern coast of Norway. Here, cloud and precipitation observations from 13 CAO cases during COMBLE are analyzed. A vertical air motion retrieval technique is applied to the Ka-band ARM Zenith-pointing Radar (KAZR) observations. The CAO cumulus clouds are characterized by strong updrafts with magnitudes between 2–8 m s−1, vertical extents of 1–3 km, and horizontal scales of 0.25–3 km. A strong relationship between our vertical air velocity retrievals and liquid water path (LWP) measurements is found. The LWP measurements exceed 1 kg m−2 in strong updraft areas, and the vertical extent of the updraft correlates well with the LWP values. The CAO cumulus clouds exhibit eddy dissipation rate values between 10−3 and 10−2 m2 s−3 in the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere, and using a radar Doppler spectra technique, evidence of secondary ice production is found during one of the cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mid-Atlantic US observations of radiocarbon in CO 2 : fossil and biogenic source partitioning and model evaluation

Accurately quantifying regional anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes is fundamental to improving our understanding of the carbon cycle and for creating effective carbon mitigation policies, and the radiocarbon to total carbon ratio in atmospheric CO 2 (Δ 14 CO 2 ) is a robust tracer of fossil fuel CO 2 that can discriminate between biogenic and fossil fuel CO 2 sources. NASA's Atmospheric Carbon and Transport-America (ACT-America) airborne mission between 2016 and 2019 aimed to improve the accuracy of regional greenhouse gas flux estimates, through refining our understanding and characterization of fluxes and flux uncertainties in models. Δ 14 CO 2 observations from 26 flights are presented for examining seasonal CO 2 source partitioning in the Mid-Atlantic USA. Observed variability in boundary layer CO 2 at timescales ranging from intra-day to seasonal was largely driven by biogenic CO 2 (CO 2bio ) variability that ranged from −19.7 ppm in summer to 16.2 ppm in fall, while fossil fuel CO 2 (CO 2ff ) variability remained at 3.3±2.0 ppm. Carbonyl sulfide uptake was well-correlated with CO 2bio uptake, and examining this relationship, as well as that between CO 2 and CO 2bio variability reinforces the seasonal extent of gross primary productivity response throughout ACT-America. We use airborne Δ 14 CO 2 flask sampling alongside in situ carbon monoxide measurements to calculate high-frequency CO 2ff and evaluate the magnitude and diurnal variability of modeled CO 2ff , deducing likely transport errors in an example flight. Although ACT-America CO 2ff signals were attenuated due to the broad source regions sampled, results illustrate the value of Δ 14 CO 2 sampling and observation-based methodologies for regional CO 2 flux attribution, evaluation and improvement of modeled CO 2 .

Baier, Bianca C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of the radiation budget during MOSAiC based on ground-based and satellite remote sensing observations

An accurate representation of the radiation budget is essential for investigating the impact of clouds on the climate system, especially in the Arctic, an environment highly sensitive to complex and rapid environmental changes. In this study, we analyse a unique dataset of observations from the central Arctic made during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in conjunction with state-of-the-art satellite products from CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) to investigate the radiative effect of clouds and radiative closure at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA). We perform a series of radiative transfer simulations using derived cloud macro- and microphysical properties as inputs to the simulations for the entire MOSAiC period, comparing our results to collocated satellite products and ice-floe observations. The radiative closure biases were generally within the instrumental uncertainty, indicating that the simulations are sufficiently accurate to reproduce the radiation budget during MOSAiC. Comparisons of the simulated radiation budget relative to CERES show similar values in the terrestrial flux but relatively large differences in the solar flux, which are attributed to a lower surface albedo and a possible underestimation of atmospheric opacity by CERES. While the simulation results were consistent with the observations, more detailed analyses reveal an overestimation of simulated cloud opacity for cases involving geometrically thick ice clouds. In the annual mean, we found that, during the MOSAiC expedition, the presence of clouds leads to a loss of 5.2 W m −2 of the atmosphere–surface system to space, while the surface gains 25.0 W m −2 and the atmosphere is cooled by 30.2 W m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arctic observations and numerical simulations of surface wind effects on Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera measurements

Abstract. Ground-based measurements of frozen precipitation are heavily influenced by interactions of surface winds with gauge-shield geometry. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC), which photographs hydrometeors in free-fall from three different angles while simultaneously measuring their fall speed, has been used in the field at multiple midlatitude and polar locations both with and without wind shielding. Here, we present an analysis of Arctic field observations – with and without a Belfort double Alter shield – and compare the results to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the airflow and corresponding particle trajectories around the unshielded MASC. MASC-measured fall speeds compare well with Ka-band Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Zenith Radar (KAZR) mean Doppler velocities only when winds are light (≤5ms-1) and the MASC is shielded. MASC-measured fall speeds that do not match KAZR-measured velocities tend to fall below a threshold value that increases approximately linearly with wind speed but is generally <0.5ms-1. For those events with wind speeds ≤1.5ms-1, hydrometeors fall with an orientation angle mode of 12∘ from the horizontal plane, and large, low-density aggregates are as much as 5 times more likely to be observed. Simulations in the absence of a wind shield show a separation of flow at the upstream side of the instrument, with an upward velocity component just above the aperture, which decreases the mean particle fall speed by 55 % (74 %) for a wind speed of 5 m s−1 (10 m s−1). We conclude that accurate MASC observations of the microphysical, orientation, and fall speed characteristics of snow particles require shielding by a double wind fence and restriction of analysis to events where winds are light (≤5ms-1). Hydrometeors do not generally fall in still air, so adjustments to these properties' distributions within natural turbulence remain to be determined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A semi-Lagrangian method for detecting and tracking deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite observations

Automated methods for the detection and tracking of deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite imagery have a vital role in both the forecasting of severe storms and research into their behaviour. Studying the interactions and feedbacks between multiple deep convective clouds (DCC), however, poses a challenge for existing algorithms due to the necessary compromise between false detection and missed detection errors. We utilise an optical flow method to determine the motion of deep convective clouds in GOES-16 ABI imagery in order to construct a semi-Lagrangian framework for the motion of the cloud field, independently of the detection and tracking of cloud objects. The semi-Lagrangian framework allows severe storms to be simultaneously detected and tracked in both spatial and temporal dimensions. For the purpose of this framework we have developed a novel Lagrangian convolution method and a number of novel implementations of morphological image operations that account for the motion of observed objects. These novel methods allow the accurate extension of computer vision techniques to the temporal domain for moving objects such as DCCs. By combining this framework with existing methods for detecting DCCs (including detection of growing cores through cloud top cooling and detection of anvil clouds using brightness temperature), we show that the novel framework enables reductions in errors due to both false and missed detections compared to any of the individual methods, reducing the need to compromise when compared with existing frameworks. The novel framework enables the continuous tracking of anvil clouds associated with detected deep convection after convective activity has stopped, enabling the study of the entire life cycle of DCCs and their associated anvils. Furthermore, we expect this framework to be applicable to a wide range of cases including the detection and tracking of low-level clouds and other atmospheric phenomena. In addition, this framework may be used to combine observations from multiple sources, including satellite observations, weather radar and reanalysis model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles from ground-based high-resolution infrared observations using an adaptive fast iterative algorithm

Various retrieval algorithms have been developed for retrieving temperature and water vapor profiles from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) observations. The physical retrieval algorithm, named AERI Optimal Estimation (AERIoe), outperforms other retrieval algorithms in many aspects except the retrieval time, which is significantly increased due to the complex radiative transfer process. The calculation of the Jacobian matrix is the most computationally intensive step of the physical retrieval algorithm. Interestingly, an analysis of the change in AERI observations' information content with respect to Jacobians revealed that the AERIoe algorithm's performance presents negligible dependence on these metrics. Thus, the Jacobian matrix could remain unchanged when the variation in the atmospheric state is small in the retrieval process to reduce the most time-consuming computation. On the basis of the above findings, a fast physical–iterative retrieval algorithm was proposed by adaptively recalculating Jacobians in keeping with the changes in the atmospheric state. Experiments with synthetic observations demonstrate that the proposed method experiences an average reduction in retrieval time by an impressive 59 % compared to the original AERIoe algorithm while achieving maximum root-mean-square errors of less than 0.95 K and 0.22 log(ppmv) for heights below 3 km for the temperature and water vapor profile, respectively. Further analyses revealed that the fast-retrieval algorithm reached an acceptable convergence rate of 98.7 %, marginally lower than AERIoe's 99.9 % convergence rate for the 826 cases used in this study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) datasets are critical to understanding the global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles and benefit extensive societal applications. However, individual sources of SM data (e.g., in situ and satellite observations, reanalysis, offline land surface model simulations, Earth system model – ESM – simulations) have source-specific limitations and biases related to the spatiotemporal continuity, resolutions, and modeling and retrieval assumptions. Here, we developed seven global, gap-free, long-term (1970–2016), multilayer (0–10, 10–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) SM products at monthly 0.5∘ resolution (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13661312.v1; Wang and Mao, 2021) by synthesizing a wide range of SM datasets using three statistical methods (unweighted averaging, optimal linear combination, and emergent constraint). The merged products outperformed their source datasets when evaluated with in situ observations (mean bias from −0.044 to 0.033 m3 m−3, root mean square errors from 0.076 to 0.104 m3 m−3, Pearson correlations from 0.35 to 0.67) and multiple gridded datasets that did not enter merging because of insufficient spatial, temporal, or soil layer coverage. Three of the new SM products, which were produced by applying any of the three merging methods to the source datasets excluding the ESMs, had lower bias and root mean square errors and higher correlations than the ESM-dependent merged products. The ESM-independent products also showed a better ability to capture historical large-scale drought events than the ESM-dependent products. The merged products generally showed reasonable temporal homogeneity and physically plausible global sensitivities to observed meteorological factors, except that the ESM-dependent products underestimated the low-frequency temporal variability in SM and overestimated the high-frequency variability for the 50–100 cm depth. Based on these evaluation results, the three ESM-independent products were finally recommended for future applications because of their better performances than the ESM-dependent ones. Despite uncertainties in the raw SM datasets and fusion methods, these hybrid products create added value over existing SM datasets because of the performance improvement and harmonized spatial, temporal, and vertical coverages, and they provide a new foundation for scientific investigation and resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observations

Abstract. Poor representations of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) in Earth system models (ESMs) have long been the largest uncertainties in predicting global climate change. Huge efforts have been made to improve the representation of these processes in ESMs, and the key to these efforts is the evaluation of ESM simulations with observations. Most well-established ESM diagnostics packages focus on the climatological features; however, they lack process-level understanding and representations of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. In this study, we developed the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs simulated the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). This paper documents its version 2 functionality (ESMAC Diags v2), which has substantial updates compared with version 1 (Tang et al., 2022a). The simulated aerosol and cloud properties have been extensively compared with in situ and remote-sensing measurements from aircraft, ship, surface, and satellite platforms in ESMAC Diags v2. It currently includes six field campaigns and two permanent sites covering four geographical regions: the eastern North Atlantic, the central US, the northeastern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility and other agencies. ESMAC Diags v2 generates various types of single-variable and multivariable diagnostics, including percentiles, histograms, joint histograms, and heatmaps, to evaluate the model representation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. Select examples highlighting the capabilities of ESMAC Diags are shown using E3SM version 2 (E3SMv2). In general, E3SMv2 can reasonably reproduce many observed aerosol and cloud properties, with biases in some variables such as aerosol particle and cloud droplet sizes and number concentrations. The coupling of aerosol and cloud number concentrations may be too strong in E3SMv2, possibly indicating a bias in processes that control aerosol activation. Furthermore, the liquid water path response to a perturbed cloud droplet number concentration behaves differently in E3SMv2 and observations, which warrants further study to improve the cloud microphysics parameterizations in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of citizen science data in snowpack modeling using a new snow data set: Community Snow Observations

A physically based snowpack evolution and redistribution model was used to test the effectiveness of assimilating crowd-sourced snow depth measurements collected by citizen scientists. The Community Snow Observations project gathers, stores, and distributes measurements of snow depth recorded by recreational users and snow professionals in high mountain environments. These citizen science measurements are valuable since they come from terrain that is relatively undersampled and can offer in situ snow information in locations where snow information is sparse or nonexistent. The present study investigates (1) the improvements to model performance when citizen science measurements are assimilated, and (2) the number of measurements necessary to obtain those improvements. Model performance is assessed by comparing time series of observed (snow pillow) and modeled snow water equivalent values, by comparing spatially distributed maps of observed (remotely sensed) and modeled snow depth, and by comparing fieldwork results from within the study area. The results demonstrate that few citizen science measurements are needed to obtain improvements in model performance, and these improvements are found in 62 % to 78 % of the ensemble simulations, depending on the model year. Model estimations of total water volume from a subregion of the study area also demonstrate improvements in accuracy after CSO measurements have been assimilated. These results suggest that even modest measurement efforts by citizen scientists have the potential to improve efforts to model snowpack processes in high mountain environments, with implications for water resource management and process-based snow modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observations and Lessons Learned in Residential Roofing Integrated Photovoltaics

The data file includes field observations of residential roofing integrated photovoltaics installation that happened between July 2021 and June 2022 in California. There are 21 observations - 2 in the re-roofing category and 19 in the new construction category. The file includes two time and motion forms (Re-Roofing & New Construction) we used to capture the time it takes for each activity in the rooftop solar and electrical installation process. You will see the duration for detailed steps along with activities that are included for total installation time for the paper. There are three parts to the time and motion form - Part 1 has project and crew characteristics, product information, and inspection and permitting data and can be filled before the installation. Part 2 has the actual installation time stamps and related notes. Part 3 has the crew information and can be filled on-site or off-site, but this section is optional. The re-roofing form has pre-solar activities and gutters and vents section in Part 2 of the form, whereas new construction form includes a section for capturing the time it took for rough wiring. The re-roofing form does not include rough wiring but instead includes the final electrical wiring process. These are the key differences in both the forms. Each day/step/installation activity needs to include the crew break time as they happen and there is space available to capture the crew breaks duration. In Table 1 below, the different terms used in the time and motion form are defined and their corresponding unit of measurement stated. We also highlight the optional sections. The data is captured in total mins, total hours, person mins, person hours. You can use this form or make edits to the form to recreate the study or make your own observations. The data herein was reviewed but may not be comprehensive. NREL invites questions and inputs to improve the data, including to: Correct erroneous information Fill in missing/updated information Clarifications on data and variables Updated information may be submitted to Sushmita Jena at sushmita.jena@nlr.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Gravity and Laser Interferometry: Towards Observable Predictions

Understanding quantum gravity remains one of the deepest challenges in modern physics, as direct experimental access to Planck-scale effects is beyond current technological reach. However, recent theoretical advances indicate that quantum fluctuations of spacetime may produce measurable effects in precision experiments, particularly near causal horizons. This opens new avenues for testing quantum gravity phenomena through high-precision measurement techniques. This dissertation develops multiple theoretical models to characterize these effects and examines their potential observational signatures in future gravitational wave interferometers. We begin by investigating the role of quantum fluctuations in near-horizon geometries through the lens of the AdS/CFT correspondence, which provides a powerful framework for understanding the interplay between quantum field theory and general relativity via holographic principles. By modeling stochastic energy-momentum sources in Rindler-AdS spacetime, we demonstrate that vacuum fluctuations transform the Einstein equations into a Langevin-type stochastic differential equation, leading to potentially observable fluctuations in photon traversal times. Extending this approach to Minkowski spacetime, we establish a correspondence between gravitational shockwaves and fluid dynamics, showing that near-horizon perturbations satisfy an equation analogous to that governing incompressible fluids, thereby reinforcing the membrane paradigm and hydrodynamic analogies in the context of the fluid/gravity duality. Furthermore, we construct the covariant phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in Minkowski spacetime, identifying two fundamental charges that govern its evolution. These results provide a foundation for quantizing causal horizons and understanding their microscopic degrees of freedom. Building upon these theoretical developments, we further examine a related stochastic phenomenon: the gravitational wave memory background arising from the cumulative memory steps produced by supermassive black hole mergers. After reviewing the standard stochastic gravitational wave background, gravitational memory effects, and BMS symmetries, we model the stochastic memory background using a Brownian motion framework. We show that while the cumulative memory background initially appears above the sensitivity curve of space-based interferometers like LISA, the realistic subtraction of individually resolvable merger events substantially suppresses the residual signal, making its detection more challenging. This highlights the critical importance of source subtraction when evaluating the detectability of gravitational memory effects. By bridging fundamental theory with experimental prospects, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing effort to uncover the quantum nature of spacetime through precision measurement techniques. Whether through detecting quantum spacetime fluctuations, gravitational memory backgrounds, or probing the symmetries of causal horizons, the pursuit of observable quantum gravity phenomena continues to expand the frontiers of both theory and experiment.

Zhang, Yiwen [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000323559416)↗