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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

A Multi-sensor Evaluation of Precipitation Uncertainty for Landslide-triggering Storm Events

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select among a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity-duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of reported landslides across the continental US and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296mm with an average range of 51mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8262745mm/hr and as much as 57mm/hr. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit-ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually-verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.

Precipitation inter-comparison↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards large-scale quantum optimization solvers with few qubits

Quantum computers hold the promise of more efficient combinatorial optimization solvers, which could be game-changing for a broad range of applications. However, a bottleneck for materializing such advantages is that, in order to challenge classical algorithms in practice, mainstream approaches require a number of qubits prohibitively large for near-term hardware. Here we introduce a variational solver for MaxCut problems over $m={{\mathcal{O}}}({n}^{k})$ binary variables using only n qubits, with tunable k > 1. The number of parameters and circuit depth display mild linear and sublinear scalings in m , respectively. Moreover, we analytically prove that the specific qubit-efficient encoding brings in a super-polynomial mitigation of barren plateaus as a built-in feature. Altogether, this leads to high quantum-solver performances. For instance, for m = 7000, numerical simulations produce solutions competitive in quality with state-of-the-art classical solvers. In turn, for m = 2000, experiments with n = 17 trapped-ion qubits feature MaxCut approximation ratios estimated to be beyond the hardness threshold 0.941. Our findings offer an interesting heuristics for quantum-inspired solvers as well as a promising route towards solving commercially-relevant problems on near-term quantum devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1996

Polar Vortex Conditions during the 1995-96 Artic Winter: Meteorology and MLS Ozone

The 1995-96 northern hemisphere (NH) 205 winter stratosphere was colder than in any of the previous 17 winters, with lower stratospheric temperatures continuously below the type 1 (primarily HN03) polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) threshold for over 2 1/2 months. Upper tropospheric ridges in late Feb and early Mar 1996 led to the lowest observed NH lower stratospheric temperatures, and the latest observed NH temperatures below the type 2 (water ice) PSC threshold. Consistent with the unusual cold and chemical processing on PSCS, Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) MLS observed a greater decrease in lower stratospheric ozone (03) in 1995-96 than in any of the previous 4 NH winters. 03 decreased throughout the vortex over an altitude range nearly as large as that typical of the southern hemisphere (SH). The decrease between late Dec 1995 and early Mar 1996 was about 2/3 of that over the equivalent SH period. As in other NH winters, temperatures in 1996 rose above the PSC threshold before the spring equinox, ending chemical processing in the NH vortex much earlier than is usual in the SH. A downward trend in column 03 above 100 hPa during Jan and Feb 1996 appears to be related to the lower stratospheric 03 depletion.

Manney, G. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling between Alfven wave and Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in the low latitude boundary layer

The Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of magnetohydrodynamic surface waves at the low latitude boundary layer is examined using both an eigenfrequency analysis and a time-dependent wave simulation. The analysis includes the effects of sheared flow and Alfven velocity gradient. When the magnetosheath flows are perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field direction, unstable KH waves that propagate obliquely to the sheared flow direction occur at the sheared flow surface when the Alfv\'en Mach number is higher than an instability threshold. Including a shear transition layer between the magnetosphere and magnetosheath leads to secondary KH waves (driven by the sheared flow) that are coupled to the resonant surface Alfven wave. There are remarkable differences between the primary and the secondary KH waves including wave frequency, the growth rate, and the ratio between transverse and the compressional component. The secondary KH wave energy is concentrated near the shear Alfven wave frequency at the magnetosheath with a lower frequency than the primary KH waves. Although the growth rate of the secondary KH waves is lower than the primary KH waves, the threshold condition is lower, so it is expected that these types of waves will dominate at lower Mach number. Because the transverse component of the secondary KH waves is stronger than the primary KH waves, more efficient wave energy transfer from the boundary layer to the inner magnetosphere is also predicted.

Alfven wave↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Between Alfvén Wave and Kelvin–Helmholtz Waves in the Low Latitude Boundary Layer

The Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability of magnetohydrodynamic surface waves at the low latitude boundary layer is examined using both an eigenfrequency analysis and a time-dependent wave simulation. The analysis includes the effects of sheared flow and Alfvén velocity gradient. When the magnetosheath flows are perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field direction, unstable KH waves that propagate obliquely to the sheared flow direction occur at the sheared flow surface when the Alfvén Mach number is higher than an instability threshold. Including a shear transition layer between the magnetosphere and magnetosheath leads to secondary KH waves (driven by the sheared flow) that are coupled to the resonant surface Alfvén wave. There are remarkable differences between the primary and the secondary KH waves, including wave frequency, the growth rate, and the ratio between the transverse and compressional components. The secondary KH wave energy is concentrated near the shear Alfvén wave frequency at the magnetosheath with a lower frequency than the primary KH waves. Although the growth rate of the secondary KH waves is lower than the primary KH waves, the threshold condition is lower, so it is expected that these types of waves will dominate at a lower Mach number. Because the transverse component of the secondary KH waves is stronger than that of the primary KH waves, more efficient wave energy transfer from the boundary layer to the inner magnetosphere is also predicted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pre-Ionization Controlled Laser Plasma Formation for Ignition Applications (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report consists of three grand funded papers. Abstracts for each follow. 1) In this work, we present experimental and modeling studies of air pre-ionization using ultraviolet (UV) laser pulses and its effect on laser breakdown of an overlapped near-infrared (NIR) pulse. Experimental studies are conducted with a 266 nm beam (fourth harmonic of Nd:YAG) for UV pre-ionization and an overlapped 1064 nm NIR beam (fundamental of Nd:YAG), both having pulse duration of 10 ns. Results show that the UV beam produces a pre-ionized volume which assists in breakdown of the NIR beam, leading to reduction in NIR breakdown threshold by factor of >2. Numerical modeling is performed to examine the ionization and breakdown of both beams. The modeled breakdown threshold of the NIR, including assist by pre-ionization, is in reasonable agreement with the experimental results. 2) The present contribution compares the energy absorption, optical emission, temperature, and fluid dynamics of ultraviolet (UV) λ = 266 nm and near infrared (NIR) λ = 1064 nm nanosecond laser induced plasmas in ambient air. For UV pulses at the conditions studied, energy absorption by the plasmas increases relatively gradually with laser pulse energy starting at delivered energy of E~8 mJ. Corresponding measurements of plasma luminosity show that the absorption of UV radiation does not necessarily result in visible plasma emission. For the NIR induced plasmas, the energy absorption profile is far more abrupt and begins at ~55 mJ. In contrast with UV, the absorption of NIR radiation is always accompanied by intense optical emission. The temperatures of both types of plasma have been measured with Rayleigh scattering thermometry (at times after the Thomson signal sufficiently diminishes). The UV plasmas can attain a wider range of temperatures, including lower temperatures, depending on the pulse energy (e.g., T ~400–2000K for E ~7–35 mJ at Δt = 10 μs after the pulse) while the NIR plasmas show only hotter temperatures (e.g., T ~ 12 000 K for E = 75 mJ at Δt = 10 μs after the pulse) as is consistent with the literature. Differences in the fluid dynamics for UV versus NIR pulses are shown with Schlieren imaging. In this work, the contrast in the UV and NIR plasma threshold behavior is attributed to differing roles of avalanche ionization and multiphoton ionization as is also illustrated by a simple numerical model. 3) The present contribution examines the impact of plasma dynamics and plasma-driven fluid dynamics on the flame growth of laser ignited mixtures and shows that a new dual-pulse scheme can be used to control the kernel formation process in ways that extend the lean ignition limit. We perform a comparative study between (conventional) single-pulse laser ignition (λ = 1064 nm) and a novel dual-pulse method based on combining an ultraviolet (UV) pre-ionization pulse (λ = 266 nm) with an overlapped near-infrared (NIR) energy addition pulse (λ = 1064 nm). We employ OH* chemiluminescence to visualize the evolution of the early flame kernel. For single-pulse laser ignition at lean conditions, the flame kernel separates through third lobe detachment, corresponding to high strain rates that extinguish the flame. In this work, we investigate the capabilities of the dual-pulse to control the plasma-driven fluid dynamics by adjusting the axial offset of the two focal points. In particular, we find there exists a beam waist offset whereby the resulting vorticity suppresses formation of the third lobe, consequently reducing flame stretch. With this approach, we demonstrate that the dual-pulse method enables reduced flame speeds (at early times), an extended lean limit, increased combustion efficiency, and decreased laser energy requirements.

Mechanical engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changes in trachoma indicators in Kiribati with two rounds of azithromycin mass drug administration, measured in serial population-based surveys

Baseline mapping in the two major population centers of Kiribati showed that trachoma was a public health problem in need of programmatic interventions. After conducting two annual rounds of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA), Kiribati undertook trachoma impact surveys in 2019, using standardized two-stage cluster surveys in the evaluation units of Kiritimati Island and Tarawa. In Kiritimati, 516 households were visited and in Tarawa, 772 households were visited. Nearly all households had a drinking water source and access to an improved latrine. The prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis remained above the elimination threshold (0.2% in ≥15-year-olds) and was virtually unchanged from baseline. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) in 1–9-year-olds decreased by approximately 40% from baseline in both evaluation units but remained above the 5% TF prevalence threshold for stopping MDA. TF prevalence at impact survey was 11.5% in Kiritimati and 17.9% in Tarawa. Infection prevalence in 1–9-year-olds by PCR was 0.96% in Kiritimati and 3.3% in Tarawa. Using a multiplex bead assay to measure antibodies to the C. trachomatis antigen Pgp3, seroprevalence in 1–9-year-olds was 30.2% in Kiritimati and 31.4% in Tarawa. The seroconversion rate, in seroconversion events/100 children/year, was 9.0 in Kiritimati and 9.2 in Tarawa. Seroprevalence and seroconversion rates were both assessed by four different assays, with strong agreement between tests. These results show that, despite decreases in indicators associated with infection at impact survey, trachoma remains a public health problem in Kiribati, and provide additional information about changes in serological indicators after MDA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Liquid-phase epitaxy grown PbSnTe distributed feedback laser diodes with broad continuous single-mode tuning range

Distributed feedback (DFB) pulsed laser operation has been demonstrated in stripe geometry Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Te double-heterostructures grown by liquid-phase epitaxy. The grating structure of 0.79 micron periodicity operates in first order near 12.8 microns and was fabricated prior to the liquid-phase epitaxial growth using holographic exposure techniques. These DFB lasers had moderate thresholds, 3.6 kA/sq cm, and the output power versus current curves exhibited a sharp turn-on free of kinks. Clean, single-mode emission spectra, continuously tunable over a range in excess of 20 per cm, centered about 780 per cm (12.8 microns), and at an average rate of 1.2 per cm-K from 9 to 26 K, were observed. While weaker modes could at times be seen in the spectrum, substantially single-mode operation was obtained over the entire operating range and to over 10 times threshold.

Hsieh, H.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Experimental evidence for the acceleration of thermal electrons by ion cyclotron waves in the magnetosphere

Experimental evidence is presented for the acceleration of thermal electrons by large amplitude ion cyclotron waves (ICWs). The wave power in the ULF range near the helium gyrofrequency is compared with the distribution function of low energy electrons measured by GEOS satellite instruments. This comparison shows that electrons are accelerated near the geomagnetic equator along field lines, at times when the ICW energy is large and the cold plasma density is below a threshold value. It is suggested that these accelerated electrons can account for the ELF emissions, modulated at the ICW frequency, observed by Wehrlin (1981). A very efficient acceleration of thermal electrons along field lines results from other ULF events having frequencies close to the proton gyrofrequency. Evidence for this lies in the fact that medium energy protons having large temperature anisotropies in the 100-500 eV range are responsible for the ICW wave generation.

Norris, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Survival of carbon grains in shocks

Supernova shocks play a significant part in the life of an interstellar grain. In a typical 10 to the 9th power year lifetime, a grain will be hit by an average of 10 shocks of 100 km s(sup -1) or greater velocity, and even more shocks of lower velocity. Evaluation of the results of this frequent shock processing is complicated by a number of uncertainties, but seems to give about 10 percent destruction of silicate grains and about half that for graphite grains. Because of the frequency of shocking, the mineralogy and sizes of the grain population is predominately determined by shock processing effects, and not by the initial grain nucleation and growth environment. One consequence of the significant role played by interstellar shocks is that a certain fraction (up to 5 percent) of the carbon should be transformed into the diamond phase. Diamond transformation is observed in the laboratory at threshold shock pressures easily obtainable in grain-grain collisions in supernova shocks. Yields for transforming graphite, amorphous carbon, glassy carbon, and other nearly pure carbon solids into diamond are quite high. Impurities up to at least the 10 percent level (for oxygen) are tolerated in the process. The typical size diamond expected from shock transformation agrees well with the observed sizes in the Lewis et al. findings in meteoritic material. Isotropic anomalies already contained in the grain are likely to be retained through the conversion process, while others may be implanted by the shock if the grain is close to the supernova. The meteoritic diamonds are likely to be the results of transformation of carbon grains in grain-grain collisions in supernova shock waves.

Seab, C. Gregory↗
NASA NTRS1993

Laser diode ignition activities at Sandia National Laboratories

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: ignition subsystems, enhanced safety, optical ordnance power densities, optical ignition factors, low energy optical ordnance program, absorptance of 2-(5-cyanotetrazolato) pentaaminecobalt(III) perchlorate (CP) near 800 nm, power dependence of doped CP, system operational electrical requirements, dopant concentration effects for different CP particle sizes, ZR/KCLO4 optical ignition thresholds, and electrostatic discharge testing.

Merson, John A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Far Ultraviolet Astronomy

The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) is studying a wide range of astronomical problems in the 905-1187 Angstrom wavelength region through the use of high resolution spectroscopy. The FUSE bandpass forms a nearly optimal complement to the spectral coverage provided by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), which extends down to approximately 1170 Angstroms. The photoionization threshold of atomic hydrogen (911 Angstroms) sets a natural short-wavelength limit for the FUV. FUSE was launched in June 1999 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a Delta II rocket into a 768 km circular orbit. Scientific observations started later that year. This spectral region is extremely rich in spectral diagnostics of astrophysical gases over a wide range of temperatures (100 K to over 10 million K). Important strong spectral lines in this wavelength range include those of neutral hydrogen, deuterium, nitrogen, oxygen, and argon (H I, D I, N I, O I, and Ar I), molecular hydrogen (H2), five-times ionized oxygen (O VI), and several ionization states of sulfur (S III - S VI). These elements are essential for understanding the origin and evolution of the chemical elements, the formation of stars and our Solar System, and the structure of galaxies, including our Milky Way. FUSE is one of NASA's Explorer missions and a cooperative project of NASA and the space agencies of Canada and France. These missions are smaller, more scientifically focused missions than the larger observatories, like Hubble and Chandra. FUSE was designed, built and operated for NASA by the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Johns Hopkins University. Hundreds of astronomers world-wide are using FUSE for a wide range of scientific research. Some of the important scientific discoveries from the first two years of the mission are described.

Sonneborn, George↗
NASA NTRS2008

Improving the Optical Quality Factor of the WGM Resonator

Resonators usually are characterized with two partially dependent values: finesse (F) and quality factor (Q). The finesse of an empty Fabry-Perot (FP) resonator is defined solely by the quality of its mirrors and is calculated as F=piR(exp 1/2)/(1-R). The maximum up-to-date value of reflectivity R approximately equal to 1 - 1.6 x 10(exp -6) is achieved with dielectric mirrors. An FP resonator made with the mirrors has finesse F=1.9 x 10(exp 6). Further practical increase of the finesse of FP resonators is problematic because of the absorption and the scattering of light in the mirror material through fundamental limit on the reflection losses given by the internal material losses and by thermodynamic density fluctuations on the order of parts in 109. The quality factor of a resonator depends on both its finesse and its geometrical size. A one-dimensional FP resonator has Q=2 F L/lambda, where L is the distance between the mirrors and lambda is the wavelength. It is easy to see that the quality factor of the resonator is unlimited because L is unlimited. F and Q are equally important. In some cases, finesse is technically more valuable than the quality factor. For instance, buildup of the optical power inside the resonator, as well as the Purcell factor, is proportional to finesse. Sometimes, however, the quality factor is more valuable. For example, inverse threshold power of intracavity hyperparametric oscillation is proportional to Q(exp 2) and efficiency of parametric frequency mixing is proportional to Q(exp 3). Therefore, it is important to know both the maximally achievable finesse and quality factor values of a resonator. Whispering gallery mode (WGM) resonators are capable of achieving larger finesse compared to FP resonators. For instance, fused silica resonators with finesse 2.3 x 10(exp 6) and 2.8 x 10(exp 6) have been demonstrated. Crystalline WGM resonators reveal even larger finesse values, F=6.3 x 10(exp 6), because of low attenuation of light in the transparent optical crystals. The larger values of F and Q result in the enhancement of various nonlinear processes. Low-threshold Raman lasing, optomechanical oscillations, frequency doubling, and hyperparametric oscillations based on these resonators have been recently demonstrated. Theory predicts a possibility of nearly 10(exp 14) room-temperature optical Q-factors of optical crystalline WGM resonators, which correspond to finesse levels higher than 10(exp 9). Experiments have shown numbers a thousand times lower than that. The difference occurs due to media imperfections. To substantially reduce the optical losses caused by the imperfections, a specific, multi-step, asymptotic processing of the resonator is implemented. The technique has been initially developed to reduce microwave absorption in dielectric resonators. One step of the process consists of mechanical polishing performed after high temperature annealing. Several steps repeat one after another to lead to significant reduction in optical attenuation and, as a result, to the increase of Q-factor as well as finesse of the resonator which demonstrates a CaF2 WGM resonator with F greater than 10(exp 7) and Q greater than 10(exp 11).

Savchenkov, Anatoliy↗
NASA NTRS2009

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model pre- dicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model predicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗