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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Concordance

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. This software takes a new approach towards estimating the active subspace, in which Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used as a surrogate model, and relevant calculation are obtained analytically. Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. This software is also capable of conducting a so-called "concordance analysis", using a generalization of ASs which we refer to as "Co-Active" subspaces.

Rumsey, Kelin↗
NASA NTRS1982

The McMillan and Newton polygons of a feedback system and the construction of root loci

The local behaviour of root loci around zeros and poles is investigated. This is done by relating the Newton diagrams which arise in the local analysis to the McMillan structure of the open-loop system, by means of what we shall call the McMillan polygon. This geometric construct serves to clarify the precise relationship between the McMillan structure, the principal structure, and the branching patterns of the root loci. In addition, several rules are obtained which are useful in the construction of the root loci of multivariable control systems.

Byrnes, C. I.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regularized Differentiation for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

In this paper, we propose and investigate the performance of two novel shrinkage estimators for bioburden density estimation in planetary protection. The estimators are based on the regularized differentiation of a cumulative count of colony forming units collected throughout the data collecting session or the life cycle of the entire mission. The regularized differentiation recasts the problem of bioburden density estimation as a linear least squares problem. The least squares problem is then solved through regularization techniques, such as truncated singular value decomposition and penalized least squares. The regularization is necessary to avoid noise amplification during the differentiation of noisy data. The two regularization estimators are compared with four other commonly used estimators to simultaneously evaluate the means of multivariable independent Poisson distributions: the maximum likelihood, noninformative Bayes estimator with Jeffreys prior, Empirical Bayes using conjugate gamma-Poisson model with gamma parameters selected by method of moments, and the Clevenson-Zidek estimator. It is shown through computer-simulated data that the regularized differentiation based on ridge regression has the smallest mean-squared error among all estimators. The analysis of shrinkage mechanism implemented by regularized differentiation is performed, and it is shown that the regularized differentiation amounts to performing a weighted averaging of all the samples. The weights are determined by the regularization parameter automatically selected by the L-curve technique. Since the method of least squares makes no distributional assumptions about the data, it presents an attractive technique for bioburden density estimation when there are concerns about the misspecification of the distributional model. The paper concludes with the analysis of the bioburden data collected during InSight mission and directions for future work.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling interval trendlines: Symbolic singular spectrum analysis for interval time series

Abstract In this article we propose an extension of singular spectrum analysis for interval‐valued time series. The proposed methods can be used to decompose and forecast the dynamics governing a set‐valued stochastic process. The resulting components on which the interval time series is decomposed can be understood as interval trendlines, cycles, or noise. Forecasting can be conducted through a linear recurrent method, and we devised generalizations of the decomposition method for the multivariate setting. The performance of the proposed methods is showcased in a simulation study. We apply the proposed methods so to track the dynamics governing the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) in real time, in a case study over a period of turbulence that led to discussions of the government of Argentina with the International Monetary Fund.

de Carvalho, Miguel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the top quark pair production cross section in PbPb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}=5.36$ TeV

The inclusive cross section for top quark pair ($\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}$) production in lead-lead (PbPb) collisions is reported for the first time at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.36 TeV. The analysis uses data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.58 nb −1 collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2023. The $\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}$ production cross section, ${\sigma}_{\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}}={3.42}_{-0.51}^{+0.54}{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.43}^{+0.50}\left(\mathrm{syst}\right)$ μb, is measured in dilepton final states using a fit to a multivariate discriminator that combines the decay electron and muon kinematic properties with the multiplicity of bottom quark jets. The result is consistent with perturbative quantum chromodynamics calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) accuracy employing several nuclear parton distribution functions. In addition, the Drell–Yan production cross section (σ DY ) for dilepton masses above 10 GeV and the ratio of $\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}$ to DY cross sections $\left({R}_{\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}/\mathrm{DY}}\right)$ are found to be compatible with the NNLO predictions. The observables ${\sigma}_{\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}}$, σ DY , and ${R}_{\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}/\mathrm{DY}}$ are measured separately for central and semicentral PbPb collisions to investigate for the first time the dependence of top quark production on the collision impact parameter.

Heavy Ion Experiments↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for the production of a Higgs boson in association with a single top quark in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the production of a Higgs boson in association with a single top quark, tH, is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The search targets Higgs-boson decays into $b\bar{b}$, WW * , ZZ * , and ττ, accompanied by an isolated lepton (electron or muon) from the top-quark decay. Multivariate techniques are employed to enhance the separation between signal and background processes. The observed signal strength, μ tH , defined as the ratio between the measured cross-section and the predicted Standard Model value, is μ tH = 8.1 ± 2.6 (stat.) ± 2.0 (syst.). The significance of the observed (expected) signal above the background-only expectation is 2.8 (0.4) standard deviations. The corresponding observed (expected) upper limit at the 95% confidence level on the tH cross-section is found to be 13.9 (6.1) times the value predicted by the Standard Model. An interpretation with an inverted sign of the top-quark Yukawa coupling is performed, and the signal strength and corresponding limit are reported.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitive detection of structural dynamics using a statistical framework for comparative crystallography

Chemical and conformational changes are crucial to protein function and its pharmacological control. X-ray crystallography can reveal these changes in atomic detail, but standard analysis methods, which refine separate datasets, often overlook differences that are subtle or arise in only a subset of molecules. Direct comparison of crystallographic datasets is, in principle, more powerful, but systematic errors (“scales”) often mask changes in the crystallographic observables (“structure factors”). Machine learning algorithms that jointly estimate scales and structure factors can address this limitation. Here, we augment this approach with multivariate, structured priors derived from crystallographic theory, implemented in the variational deep learning framework Careless. Doing so strongly improves the detection of protein dynamics, element-specific anomalous signals, and the binding of drug candidates, offering a robust approach to comparative crystallography and, potentially, to detection of protein dynamics by other structure determination methods.

Hekstra, Doeke R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (U↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contraceptive Sabotage and Contraceptive Use at the Time of Pregnancy: An Analysis of People with a Recent Live Birth in the United States

Contraceptive sabotage and other forms of intimate partner violence (IPV) can interfere with contraceptive use. We used 2012 to 2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System data from 8,981 people residing in five states who reported that when they became pregnant, they were not trying to get pregnant. We assessed the relationships between ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (both by the current partner) and contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy using multivariable logistic regression. We also assessed the joint associations between physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy and ever experienced contraceptive sabotage with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Few people ever experienced contraceptive sabotage (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4, 2.3) or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (2.8%; 95% CI: 2.3, 3.3). In models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, and state of residence, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was associated with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.82), but not with physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.02). When examining the joint association, compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was significantly related to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (aOR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.95). However, it was not associated with experiencing physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.45, 1.04) or with experiencing both contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.42, 3.50), compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy. Our study highlights that current partner contraceptive sabotage may motivate those not trying to get pregnant to use contraception; however, all people in our sample still experienced a pregnancy.

Huber-Krum, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS1992

Visualization of second order tensor fields and matrix data

We present a study of the visualization of 3-D second order tensor fields and matrix data. The general problem of visualizing unsymmetric real or complex Hermitian second order tensor fields can be reduced to the simultaneous visualization of a real and symmetric second order tensor field and a real vector field. As opposed to the discrete iconic techniques commonly used in multivariate data visualization, the emphasis is on exploiting the mathematical properties of tensor fields in order to facilitate their visualization and to produce a continuous representation of the data. We focus on interactively sensing and exploring real and symmetric second order tensor data by generalizing the vector notion of streamline to the tensor concept of hyperstreamline. We stress the importance of a structural analysis of the data field analogous to the techniques of vector field topology extraction in order to obtain a unique and objective representation of second order tensor fields.

Delmarcelle, Thierry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1983

Vegetation classification based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer /AVHRR/ satellite imagery

Data from the NOAA-6 spacecraft Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) were tested for effectiveness for vegetation classification. Vegetation, climatological, and meteorological data were gathered for three days over 12 locations, and the normalized differences between the AVHRR bands 1 and 2 were determined. A vegetative greenness index was compared with a hydrologic factor and vegetation characteristics as measured by ground truth. A multivariate vegetation gradient model was formulated, incorporating AVHRR and climatological data. The hydrologic factor was calculated in terms of the precipitation, evaporation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and the hydrologic capacity. The observations were taken over Texas, which has a wide range of climates. A high correlation was found in the vegetation-HF index. The AVHRR data are concluded to be an effective tool for analysis of vegetation/climate relationships.

Norwine, J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Building a landslide hazard indicator with machine learning and land surface models

The U.S. Pacific Northwest has a history of frequent and occasionally deadly landslides caused by various factors. Using a multivariate, machine-learning approach, we combined a Pacific Northwest Landslide Inventory with a 36-year gridded hydrologic dataset from the National Climate Assessment – Land Data Assimilation System to produce a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) on a daily 0.125-degree grid. The LHI identified where and when landslides were most probable over the years 1979–2016, addressing issues of bias and completeness that muddy the analysis of multi-decadal landslide inventories. The seasonal cycle was strong along the west coast, with a peak in the winter, but weaker east of the Cascade Range. This lagging indicator can fill gaps in the observational record to identify the seasonality of landslides over a large spatiotemporal domain and show how landslide hazard has responded to a changing climate.

XGBoost↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-time confinement regime detection in fusion plasmas with convolutional neural networks and high-bandwidth edge fluctuation measurements

Abstract A real-time detection of the plasma confinement regime can enable new advanced plasma control capabilities for both the access to and sustainment of enhanced confinement regimes in fusion devices. For example, a real-time indication of the confinement regime can facilitate transition to the high-performing wide-pedestal (WP) quiescent H-mode, or avoid unwanted transitions to lower confinement regimes that may induce plasma termination. To demonstrate real-time confinement regime detection, we use the 2D beam emission spectroscopy (BES) diagnostic system to capture localized density fluctuations of long wavelength turbulent modes in the edge region at a 1 MHz sampling rate. BES data from 330 discharges in either L-mode, H-mode, quiescent H (QH)-mode, or WP QH-mode were collected from the DIII-D tokamak and curated to develop a high-quality database to train a deep-learning classification model for real-time confinement detection. We utilize the 6×8 spatial configuration with a time window of 1024 µ s and recast the input to obtain spectral-like features via fast Fourier transform preprocessing. We employ a shallow 3D convolutional neural network for the multivariate time-series classification task and utilize a softmax in the final dense layer to retrieve a probability distribution over the different confinement regimes. Our model classifies the global confinement state on 44 unseen test discharges with an average F 1 score of 0.94, using only ∼1 ms snippets of BES data at a time. This activity demonstrates the feasibility for real-time data analysis of fluctuation diagnostics in future devices such as ITER, where the need for reliable and advanced plasma control is urgent.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Visualizing 2D Probability Distributions from Satellite Image-Derived Data

Creating maps of biophysical and geophysical variables using Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite image data is an important component of Earth science. These 2D maps have a single value at every location and standard techniques are used to visualize them. Current tools fall short, however, when it is necessary to describe a distribution of values at each location. Distributions may represent a frequency of occurrence over time, frequency of occurrence from multiple runs of an ensemble forecast or possible values from an uncertainty model. 'Distribution data sets' are described, then a case study is presented to visualize such 2D distributions. Distribution data sets are different from multivariate data sets in the sense that the values are for a single variable instead of multiple variables. Our case study data consists of multiple realizations of percent forest cover, generated using a geostatistical technique that combines ground measurements and satellite imagery to model uncertainty about forest cover. We present several approaches for analyzing and visualizing such data sets. The first is a pixel-wise analysis of the probability density functions for the 2D image while the second is an analysis of features identified within the image. Such pixel-wise and feature-wise views will give Earth scientists a more complete understanding of distribution data sets.

Kao, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Exploratory Approach Using Regression and Machine Learning in the Analysis of Mass Absorption Cross Section of Black Carbon Aerosols: Model Development and Evaluation

Mass absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) describes the absorptive cross-section per unit mass of black carbon, and is, thus, an essential parameter to estimate the radiative forcing of black carbon. Many studies have sought to estimate MAC BC from a theoretical perspective, but these studies require the knowledge of a set of aerosol properties, which are difficult and/or labor-intensive to measure. We therefore investigate the ability of seven data analytical approaches (including different multivariate regressions, support vector machine, and neural networks) in predicting MAC BC for both ambient and biomass burning measurements. Our model utilizes multi-wavelength light absorption and scattering as well as the aerosol size distributions as input variables to predict MAC BC across different wavelengths. We assessed the applicability of the proposed approaches in estimating MAC BC using different statistical metrics (such as coefficient of determination (R 2 ), mean square error (MSE), fractional error, and fractional bias). Overall, the approaches used in this study can estimate MAC BC appropriately, but the prediction performance varies across approaches and atmospheric environments. Based on an uncertainty evaluation of our models and the empirical and theoretical approaches to predict MAC BC , we preliminarily put forth support vector machine (SVM) as a recommended data analytical technique for use. We provide an operational tool built with the approaches presented in this paper to facilitate this procedure for future users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Demographic, Genetic, and Imaging Variables Associated With Brain Resilience and Cognitive Resilience to Pathological Tau in Patients With Alzheimer Disease

Importance: Better understanding is needed of the degree to which individuals tolerate Alzheimer disease (AD)-like pathological tau with respect to brain structure (brain resilience) and cognition (cognitive resilience). Objective: To examine the demographic (age, sex, and educational level), genetic (APOE-ε4 status), and neuroimaging (white matter hyperintensities and cortical thickness) factors associated with interindividual differences in brain and cognitive resilience to tau positron emission tomography (PET) load and to changes in global cognition over time. Design, setting, an participants: In this cross-sectional, longitudinal study, tau PET was performed from June 1, 2014, to November 30, 2017, and global cognition monitored for a mean [SD] interval of 2.0 [1.8] years at 3 dementia centers in South Korea, Sweden, and the United States. The study included amyloid-β-positive participants with mild cognitive impairment or AD dementia. Data analysis was performed from October 26, 2018, to December 11, 2019. Exposures: Standard dementia screening, cognitive testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid-β PET and cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and flortaucipir (tau) labeled with fluor-18 (18F) PET. Main outcomes and measures: Separate linear regression models were performed between whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake and cortical thickness, and standardized residuals were used to obtain a measure of brain resilience. The same procedure was performed for whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake vs Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) as a measure of cognitive resilience. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression models were conducted with age, sex, educational level, APOE-ε4 status, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and cortical thickness as independent variables and brain and cognitive resilience measures as dependent variables. Linear mixed models were performed to examine whether changes in MMSE scores over time differed as a function of a combined brain and cognitive resilience variable. Results: A total of 260 participants (145 [55.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 69.2 [9.5] years; mean [SD] MMSE score, 21.9 [5.5]) were included in the study. In multivariable models, women (standardized β = -0.15, P = .02) and young patients (standardized β = -0.20, P = .006) had greater brain resilience to pathological tau. Higher educational level (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) and global cortical thickness (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) were associated with greater cognitive resilience to pathological tau. Linear mixed models indicated a significant interaction of brain resilience × cognitive resilience × time on MMSE (β [SE] = -0.235 [0.111], P = .03), with steepest slopes for individuals with both low brain and cognitive resilience. Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that women and young patients with AD have relative preservation of brain structure when exposed to neocortical pathological tau. Interindividual differences in resilience to pathological tau may be important to disease progression because participants with both low brain and cognitive resilience had the most rapid cognitive decline over time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗