Results for “model updating” — Page 36

DOE OSTI2021

Discovery and characterization of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems

ABSTRACT AM CVn systems are ultra-compact, hydrogen-depleted, and helium-rich, accreting binaries with degenerate or semidegenerate donors. We report the discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems with orbital periods of 61.5, 55.5, 53.3, 37.4, and 35.4 min. These systems were discovered by searching for deep eclipses in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) light curves of white dwarfs selected using Gaia parallaxes. We obtained phase-resolved spectroscopy to confirm that all systems are AM CVn binaries, and we obtained high-speed photometry to confirm the eclipse and characterize the systems. The spectra show double-peaked H e lines but also show metals, including K and Zn, elements that have never been detected in AM CVn systems before. By modelling the high-speed photometry, we measured the mass and radius of the donor star, potentially constraining the evolutionary channel that formed these AM CVn systems. We determined that the average mass of the accreting white dwarf is ≈0.8 M⊙, and that the white dwarfs in long-period systems are hotter than predicted by recently updated theoretical models. The donors have a high entropy and are a factor of ≈2 more massive compared to zero-entropy donors at the same orbital period. The large donor radius is most consistent with H e-star progenitors, although the observed spectral features seem to contradict this. The discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems is consistent with the known observed AM CVn space density and estimated ZTF recovery efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Jovian plasma modeling for mission design

The purpose of this report is to address uncertainties in the plasma models at Jupiter responsible for surface charging and to update the jovian plasma models using the most recent data available. The updated plasma environment models were then used to evaluate two proposed Europa mission designs for spacecraft charging effects using the Nascap-2k code. The original Divine/Garrett jovian plasma model (or "DG1", T. N. Divine and H. B. Garrett, "Charged particle distributions in Jupiter's magnetosphere," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 88, pp. 6889-6903,1983) has not been updated in 30 years, and there are known errors in the model. As an example, the cold ion plasma temperatures between approx.5 and 10 Jupiter radii (Rj) were found by the experimenters who originally published the data to have been underestimated by approx.2 shortly after publication of the original DG1 model. As knowledge of the plasma environment is critical to any evaluation of the surface charging at Jupiter, the original DG1 model needed to be updated to correct for this and other changes in our interpretation of the data so that charging levels could beproperly estimated using the Nascap-2k charging code. As an additional task, the Nascap-2k spacecraft charging tool has been adapted to incorporate the so-called Kappa plasma distribution function--an important component of the plasma model necessary to compute the particle fluxes between approx.5 keV and 100 keV (at the outset of this study,Nascap-2k did not directly incorporate this common representation of the plasma thus limiting the accuracy of our charging estimates). The updating of the DG1 model and its integration into the Nascap-2k design tool means that charging concerns can now be more efficiently evaluated and mitigated. (We note that, given the subsequent decision by the Europa project to utilize solar arrays for its baseline design, surface charging effects have becomeeven more of an issue for its mission design). The modifications and results of those modifications to the DG1 model to produce the new DG2 model presented here and the steps taken to integrate the DG2 predictions into Nascap-2k are described in this report.

Voyager 2↗

NASA NTRS2015

Jovian Plasma Modeling for Mission Design

The purpose of this report is to address uncertainties in the plasma models at Jupiter responsible for surface charging and to update the jovian plasma models using the most recent data available. The updated plasma environment models were then used to evaluate two proposed Europa mission designs for spacecraft charging effects using the Nascap-2k code. The original Divine/Garrett jovian plasma model (or "DG1", T. N. Divine and H. B. Garrett, "Charged particle distributions in Jupiter's magnetosphere," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 88, pp. 6889-6903,1983) has not been updated in 30 years, and there are known errors in the model. As an example, the cold ion plasma temperatures between approx.5 and 10 Jupiter radii (Rj) were found by the experimenters who originally published the data to have been underestimated by approx.2 shortly after publication of the original DG1 model. As knowledge of the plasma environment is critical to any evaluation of the surface charging at Jupiter, the original DG1 model needed to be updated to correct for this and other changes in our interpretation of the data so that charging levels could beproperly estimated using the Nascap-2k charging code. As an additional task, the Nascap-2k spacecraft charging tool has been adapted to incorporate the so-called Kappa plasma distribution function--an important component of the plasma model necessary to compute the particle fluxes between approx.5 keV and 100 keV (at the outset of this study,Nascap-2k did not directly incorporate this common representation of the plasma thus limiting the accuracy of our charging estimates). The updating of the DG1 model and its integration into the Nascap-2k design tool means that charging concerns can now be more efficiently evaluated and mitigated. (We note that, given the subsequent decision by the Europa project to utilize solar arrays for its baseline design, surface charging effects have becomeeven more of an issue for its mission design). The modifications and results of those modifications to the DG1 model to produce the new DG2 model presented here and the steps taken to integrate the DG2 predictions into Nascap-2k are described in this report

Garrett, Henry B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

O/S analysis of conceptual space vehicles

The application of recently developed computer models in determining operational capabilities and support requirements during the conceptual design of proposed space systems is discussed. The models used are the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model, the maintenance simulation model, and the operations and support (O&S) cost model. In the process of applying these models, the R&M and O&S cost models were updated. The more significant enhancements include (1) improved R&M equations for the tank subsystems, (2) the ability to allocate schedule maintenance by subsystem, (3) redefined spares calculations, (4) computing a weighted average of the working days and mission days per month, (5) the use of a position manning factor, and (6) the incorporation into the O&S model of new formulas for computing depot and organizational recurring and nonrecurring training costs and documentation costs, and depot support equipment costs. The case study used is based upon a winged, single-stage, vertical-takeoff vehicle (SSV) designed to deliver to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) a 25,000 lb payload including passengers without a crew.

Ebeling, Charles E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

Spadoni, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The evolution and discharge of electric fields within a thunderstorm

An analysis of the present three-dimensional thunderstorm electrical model and its finite-difference approximations indicates unconditional stability for the discretization that results from the approximation of the spatial derivatives by a box-schemelike method and of the temporal derivative by either a backward-difference or Crank-Nicholson scheme. Lightning propagation is treated through numerical techniques based on the inverse-matrix modification formula and Cholesky updates. The model is applied to a storm observed at the Kennedy Space Center in 1978, and numerical comparisons are conducted between the model and the theoretical results obtained by Wilson (1920) and Holzer and Saxon (1952).

Hager, William W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Wave-Particle Interactions As a Driving Mechanism for the Solar Wind

Our research has been focusing on a highly experimentally relevant issue: intermittency of the fluctuating fields in outflowing plasmas. We have contributed to both the theoretical and experimental research of the topic. In particular, we have developed a theoretical model and data analyzing programs to examine the issue of intermittency in space plasma outflows, including the solar wind. As fluctuating electric fields in the solar wind are likely to provide a heating and acceleration mechanism for the ions, our studies of the intermittency in turbulence in space plasma outflows help us toward achieving the goal of comparing major physical mechanisms that contribute to the driving of the fast solar wind. Our new theoretical model extends the utilities of our global hybrid model, which has allowed us to follow the kinetic evolution of the particle distributions along an inhomogeneous field line while the particles are subjected to various physical mechanisms. The physical effects that were considered in the global hybrid model included wave-particle interactions, an ambipolar electric field that was consistent with the particle distributions themselves, and Coulomb collisions. With an earlier version of the global hybrid model, we examined the overall impact on the solar wind flow due to the combination of these physical effects. In particular, we studied the combined effects of two major mechanisms that had been proposed as the drivers of the fast solar wind: (1) velocity filtration effect due to suprathermal electrons; (2) ion cyclotron resonance. Since the approval of this research grant, we have updated the model such that the effects due to these two driving mechanisms can be examined separately, thereby allowing us to compare their contributions to the acceleration of the solar wind. In the next section, we shall demonstrate that the velocity filtration effect is rather insignificant in comparison with that due to ion cyclotron resonance.

Wagner, William J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Hindlimb Unloading Rat Model: Literature Overview, Comparison with Spaceflight Data, and Technique Update

The hindlimb unloading (HU) rodent model is used extensively to study the response of many physiological systems to certain aspects of spaceflight, as well as to disuse and recovery from disuse for Earth benefits. This chapter describes the evolution of HU, and is divided into three sections. The first section examines the characteristics of 1063 articles using or reviewing the HU model, published between 1976 and April 1, 2004. The characteristics include number of publications, journals, countries, major physiological systems, method modifications, species, gender, genetic strains and ages of rodents, experiment duration, and countermeasures. The second section provides a comparison of results between space flown and Hu animals from the 14-day Cosmos 2044 mission. The final section describes modifications to HU required by different experimental paradigms and a method to protect the tail harness for long duration studies. HU in rodents has enabled improved understanding of the responses of the musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, immune, renal, neural, metabolic, and reproductive systems to unloading and/or to reloading on Earth with implications for both long-duration human spaceflight and disuse on Earth.

Morey-Holton, Emily↗

NASA NTRS1994

SEQ-GEN: A comprehensive multimission sequencing system

SEQ-GEN is a user-interactive computer program used to plan and generate a sequence of commands for spacecraft. Desired activities are specified by the user of SEQ-GEN; SEQ-GEN in turn expands these activities, deriving the spacecraft commands necessary to accomplish the desired activities. SEQ-GEN models the effects on the spacecraft of the commands, predicting the state as a function of time, flagging any conflicts and rule violations. These states, conflicts, and violations are viewable both graphically and textually at the user's request. SEQ-GEN also displays the entire sequence graphically, showing each requested activity as a bar on its graphical timeline. SEQ-GEN immediately revalidates the sequence, updating its models and calculations along with its displays based on these changes. Because it has the ability to recalculate spacecraft states immediately, the user is able to perform 'what-if' sessions easily. SEQ-GEN, a multimission tool, is adaptable to any flight project. A flight project writes its adaptation files containing project unique information including in its simplest form, only spacecraft commands. For more involved projects the adaptation files may also contain flight and mission rules, description of the spacecraft and ground models, and the definition of activities. SEQ-GEN operates at whatever level of detail the adaptation files imply. Simple adaptations are straight forward to do. There is, however, no limit to the complexity of activity definitions or of spacecraft models: both may involve unlimited logical decision points. Commands and activities may involve any number of parameters of a wide variety of data types, including integer, float, time, boolean, and character strings. SEQ-GEN will be used by the Mars Pathfinder, Cassini, and VIM (Voyager Interstellar Mission) project in an effort to speed up adaptation time and to keep sequence generation costs down. SEQ-GEN is hosted on UNIX workstations. It uses MOTIF and X for windowing, and was designed and coded in an object-oriented style in the language C++.

Salcedo, Jose↗

DOE OSTI2025

Architecture-Aware Models of AI Engines for High-Performance Matrix Matrix Multiplication

The AI Engine (AIE) architecture, available in systems from mobile SoCs to server-class FPGAs, aims to efficiently execute AI/ML tasks through a two-dimensional array of compute tiles. Previous work on AIEs has explored different approaches to mapping computation across spatial arrays, but the compute kernel running on each tile has not been the focus. Additionally, the AIE-ML architecture introduces memory tiles and omits programmable logic, requiring new approaches to staging and moving data throughout the array. In this work we update analytical models developed for CPUs to produce the design of high performance kernels while introducing new model considerations such as memory structure, throughput, and latency as required by the AIE hardware. We evaluate our models by developing AIE-ML kernels for matrix multiplication in low-precision data types showing performance up to 95% of compute peak for the kernel when data resides in local memory and above 90% of compute peak when data resides in main memory.

Binder, Elliott D. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pi↗

NASA NTRS1992

Model-based vision for space applications

This paper describes a method for tracking moving image features by combining spatial and temporal edge information with model based feature information. The algorithm updates the two-dimensional position of object features by correlating predicted model features with current image data. The results of the correlation process are used to compute an updated model. The algorithm makes use of a high temporal sampling rate with respect to spatial changes of the image features and operates in a real-time multiprocessing environment. Preliminary results demonstrate successful tracking for image feature velocities between 1.1 and 4.5 pixels every image frame. This work has applications for docking, assembly, retrieval of floating objects and a host of other space-related tasks.

Chaconas, Karen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Mission Entry and Descent Modeling and Simulation Overview

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission, led by The Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, that will deliver a rotorcraft lander to Saturn’s moon, Titan. The focus of this work is to analyze the trajectory of the entry vehicle from cruise stage separation until lander separation. This analysis is done by the NASA Langley Research Center Entry, Descent, and Landing team using the Program to Optimize Trajectories II. This paper provides an overview of the current design and the robustness of the overall entry sequence using a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The work presented in this study includes the updated design, models, and analysis completed since the Dragonfly Entry, Descent, and Landing Mission Preliminary Design Review.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Mission Entry and Descent Modeling and Simulation Overview

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission, led by The Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, that will deliver a rotorcraft lander to Saturn’s moon, Titan. The focus of this work is to analyze the trajectory of the entry vehicle from cruise stage separation until lander separation. This analysis is done by the NASA Langley Research Center Entry, Descent, and Landing team using the Program to Optimize Trajectories II. This paper provides an overview of the current design and the robustness of the overall entry sequence using a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The work presented in this study includes the updated design, models, and analysis completed since the Dragonfly Entry, Descent, and Landing Mission Preliminary Design Review.

Simulation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inverse Bremsstrahlung Absorption

Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption was measured based on transmission through a finite-length plasma that was thoroughly characterized using spatially resolved Thomson scattering. Expected absorption was then calculated using the diagnosed plasma conditions while varying the absorption model components. To match data, it is necessary to account for: (1) the Langdon effect; (2) laser-frequency (rather than plasma-frequency) dependence in the Coulomb logarithm, as is typical of bremsstrahlung theories but not transport theories; and (3) a correction due to ion screening. Radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of inertial confinement fusion implosions have to date used a Coulomb logarithm from the transport literature and no screening correction. Here, we anticipate that updating the model for collisional absorption will substantially revise our understanding of laser-target coupling for such implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Improvement of structural models using covariance analysis and nonlinear generalized least squares

The next generation of large, flexible space structures will be too light to support their own weight, requiring a system of structural supports for ground testing. The authors have proposed multiple boundary-condition testing (MBCT), using more than one support condition to reduce uncertainties associated with the supports. MBCT would revise the mass and stiffness matrix, analytically qualifying the structure for operation in space. The same procedure is applicable to other common test conditions, such as empty/loaded tanks and subsystem/system level tests. This paper examines three techniques for constructing the covariance matrix required by nonlinear generalized least squares (NGLS) to update structural models based on modal test data. The methods range from a complicated approach used to generate the simulation data (i.e., the correct answer) to a diagonal matrix based on only two constants. The results show that NGLS is very insensitive to assumptions about the covariance matrix, suggesting that a workable NGLS procedure is possible. The examples also indicate that the multiple boundary condition procedure more accurately reduces errors than individual boundary condition tests alone.

Glaser, R. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

NASA NTRS2016

Preparation for Cassini Grand Finale - Validation of Saturn Ring Heating in TSS

Thermal analysis of spacecraft at Saturn have previously been restricted to three environmental heat fluxes: solar, Saturn planet IR, and Saturn planet albedo. Heat flux from Saturn’s rings were not available in any commercially available thermal analysis tools. While preparing for the Cassini Grand Finale, during which Cassini will travel extremely close to the rings of Saturn, it was determined the existing thermal model required updating to accurately predict heat fluxes from the rings. This is particularly important for Cassini’s Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer infrared spectrometer (VIMS-IR), as it is cooled by a passive radiator which operates below the temperature of Saturn’s rings. This paper discusses the validation of the heat flux from solar, Saturn, and Saturn’s rings in Spacedesign’s Thermal Synthesizer System (TSS). The incorporation of heating from Saturn’s rings also led to the use of SPICE geometry to ensure accurate spacecraft positioning and pointing. Thermal model results are compared against historical heating events as well as predictive Grand Finale sequences.

Swanson, Kirsten S.↗