Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model interpretability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36

Visual scanning behavior and pilot workload

Sophisticated man machine interaction often requires the human operator to perform a stereotyped scan of various instruments in order to monitor and/or control a system. For situations in which this type of stereotyped behavior exists, such as certain phases of instrument flight, scan pattern was shown to be altered by the imposition of simultaneous verbal tasks. A study designed to examine the relationship between pilot visual scan of instruments and mental workload is described. It was found that a verbal loading task of varying difficulty causes pilots to stare at the primary instrument as the difficulty increases and to shed looks at instruments of less importance. The verbal loading task also affected the rank ordering of scanning sequences. By examining the behavior of pilots with widely varying skill levels, it was suggested that these effects occur most strongly at lower skill levels and are less apparent at high skill levels. A graphical interpretation of the hypothetical relationship between skill, workload, and performance is introduced and modelling results are presented to support this interpretation.

Tole, J. R.↗

The zonally averaged transport characteristics of the atmosphere as determined by a general circulation model

Two dimensional modeling has become an established technique for the simulation of the global structure of trace constituents. Such models are simpler to formulate and cheaper to operate than three dimensional general circulation models, while avoiding some of the gross simplifications of one dimensional models. Nevertheless, the parameterization of eddy fluxes required in a 2-D model is not a trivial problem. This fact has apparently led some to interpret the shortcomings of existing 2-D models as indicating that the parameterization procedure is wrong in principle. There are grounds to believe that these shortcomings result primarily from incorrect implementations of the predictions of eddy transport theory and that a properly based parameterization may provide a good basis for atmospheric modeling. The existence of these GCM-derived coefficients affords an unprecedented opportunity to test the validity of the flux-gradient parameterization. To this end, a zonally averaged (2-D) model was developed, using these coefficients in the transport parameterization. Results from this model for a number of contrived tracer experiments were compared with the parent GCM. The generally good agreement substantially validates the flus-gradient parameterization, and thus the basic principle of 2-D modeling.

Plumb, R. A.↗

Further evidence for a black hole in Beta Lyrae.

Comments regarding an interpretation of the OAO-2 observations of Beta Lyrae are presented. This interpretation had been reported by Wilson (1971). Six color UV curves represent the first continual coverage of a single cycle of Beta Lyr. Explanations for the deepening secondary minimum in the far UV are discussed. It is pointed out that the secondary component is apparently a massive object. The 'black hole' model represents one approach to interpret the observations of Beta Lyr.

Kondo, Y.↗

Direct integration transmittance model

A transmittance model has been developed for interpretation of high spectral resolution measurements of laboratory absorption and of planetary thermal emission. The high spectral resolution requires transmittances to be computed monochromatically by summing the contribution of individual molecular absorption lines. A magnetic tape atlas of H2O, O3, and CO2 molecular line parameters serves as input to the transmittance model with simple empirical representations used for continuum regions wherever suitable laboratory data exist. The theoretical formulation of the transmittance model and the computational procedures used for the evaluation of the transmittances are discussed, and application of the model to several homogeneous-path laboratory absorption examples is demonstrated.

Kunde, V. G.↗

Observations of the solar wind speed near the sun

Two-antenna scintillation (IPS) observations can provide accurate measurements of the velocity with which electron density fluctuations drift past the line of sight. We will present recent IPS measurements made with the EISCAT and VLBA arrays. It is common, particularly during declining activity. for the line of sight to pass through plasma with a wide range of speed. Therefore it is important to account for the line of sight integration. It is clear from ULYSSES measurements that the speed is bimodal in nature, i.e., either 'fast' or 'slow.' Thus it is not necessary to model a continuous velocity distribution - one need only locate the 'fast-slow' interface. In addition one must consider the possibility that the density fluctuations are moving with respect to the flow of particles. Alfven waves propagating through field-aligned density fluctuations can mimic a sound wave in this respect, so the apparent IPS velocity can be the flow speed plus the Alfven speed. In modeling the IPS it is important that the scattering be 'weak,' because the weak scattering model requires only 1 spatial parameter instead of 3. Furthermore the effect of multiple velocities in much more distinct in weak scattering. EISCAT can only operate near 933 MHz, which limits the observations to outside of 17R(solar mass). The VLBA is the only facility with the combination of high frequency operation and long baselines required to observe inside of 15R(solar mass). A simple bimodal model has been successfully used to interpret our IPS observations near the sun. Farther out interaction regions have built up significantly and a two speed model is no longer valid. An apparent deceleration in the fast polar wind is sometimes evident when compared to the ULYSSES observation. The density variance delta N(exp 2)e in the fast wind appears to decrease from equator to pole.

Grall, R. R.↗

Global Aerodynamic Modeling Using Automated Local Model Networks in Real Time

A novel method is presented for automated real-time global aerodynamic modeling using local model networks, known as Smoothed Partitioning with Localized Trees in Real Time (SPLITR), as part of NASA’s Learn-to-Fly technology development initiative. The global nonlinear aerodynamics are partitioned into several local regions known as cells, with the dimension, location, and timing of each partition automatically selected based on a residual characterization procedure, under the constraints of real-time operation. Regression trees represent the successive partitioning of the global flight envelope and describe the evolution of the cell structure. Recursive equation-error least-squares parameter estimation in the time domain is used to estimate a model that represents the local aerodynamics in each region, so that it can be updated independently with non-contiguous data in the range of each cell over time. A weighted superposition of these piecewise local models across the flight envelope forms a global nonlinear model that also accurately captures the local aerodynamics. The SPLITR approach is demonstrated using both simulation and flight data, and the results are analyzed in terms of model predictive capabilities as well as interpretability. The results show that SPLITR can be used to automatically partition complex nonlinear aerodynamic behavior, produce an accurate model, and provide valuable physical insight into the local and global aerodynamics.

Weinstein, Rose↗

Mineral Dust Optical Properties for Remote Sensing and Global Modeling: A Review

Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.

Aeolian dust↗

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

A model of the variability of the Venus ionopause altitude

A model for the variability of the Venus ionopause as a function of solar wind dynamic pressure and EUV flux during quiescent solar wind conditions is presented. The radio occultation measurements of the Venus ionopause from Mariner 5, 10 and Venera 9, 10 spacecraft, as well as recent in situ Pioneer Venus measurements are interpreted in terms of this model. An ionospheric model consistent with observations in the 400-1000 km region is predominantly O(+) with densities of about 10,000/cu cm and (T sub e + T sub i) approximately equal to 4500-6500 K. For ionopause measurements below 400 km the ionosphere appears severely compressed and density and temperature profiles cannot be simply described, although a strong correlation with solar wind dynamic pressure is observed. Possible effects of IMF direction switching on the dynamics and structure of the ionosphere are also considered and compared with available ionopause data.

Wolff, R. S.↗

Sensitivity of Temperature Profiles Retrieved from Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES) Observations to the GSFC Synthetic Mars Model Atmosphere

Part of the task of interpreting IR spectral features observed by MGS/TES due to surface minerals requires distinguishing those IR signatures from atmospheric signatures of gas and dust. Surface-atmosphere separation for MGS/TES depends on knowledge of the retrieved temperature profile. In turn, the temperature retrieval Erom the observed data depends on molecular parameters including 15 micron CO2 line shape or line intensities which contribute to defining the Mars synthetic radiative transfer model. Using a simple isothermal, homogeneous single layer model of Pinnock and Shine, we find the ratio of (the error in degrees Kelvin of the retrieved temperature profile) to (the percentage error in the absorption coefficient) (deg K/percent) to be 0.4 at 200K. This ratio at 150K and 250K is 0.2 and 0.6, respectively. A more refined model, incorporating observed MGS/TES retrieved temperature profiles, the TES instrumental resolution and the most recent molecular modelling, will yield an improved knowledge of this error sensitivity. We present results of such a sensitivity study to determine the dependence of temperature profiles inverted from MGS/TES on these and other molecular parameters. This work was supported in part by NASA's Mars Data Analysis Program.

Maguire, William C.↗

Surface temperature of a magnetized neutron star and interpretation of the ROSAT data. 1: Dipole fields

We model the temperature distribution at the surface of a magnetized neutron star and study the effects on the observed X-ray spectra and light curves. Generalrelativistic effects, i.e., redshift and lensing, are fully taken into account. Atmospheric effects on the emitted spectral flux are not included: we consider only blackbody emission at the local effective temperature. In this first paper we restrict ourselves to dipole fields. General features are studied and compared with the ROSAT data from the pulsars 0833 - 45 (Vela), 0656 + 14, 0630 + 178 (Geminga), and 1055 - 52, the four cases for which there is strong evidence that thermal radiation from the stellar surface is detected. The composite spectra we obtain are not very different from a blackbody spectrum at the star's effective temperature. We conclude that, as far as blackbody spectra are considered, temperature estimates using single-temperature models give results practically identical to our composite models. The change of the (composite blackbody) spectrum with the star's rotational phase is also not very large and may be unobservable inmost cases. Gravitational lensing strongly suppresses the light curve pulsations. If a dipole field is assumed, pulsed fractions comparable to the observed ones can be obtained only with stellar radii larger than those which are predicted by current models of neutron star struture, or with low stellar masses. Moreover, the shapes of the theoretical light curves with dipole fields do not correspond to the observations. The use of magnetic spectra may raise the pulsed fraction sufficiently but will certainly make the discrepancy with the light curve shapes worse: dipole fields are not sufficient to interpret the data. Many neutron star models with a meson condensate or hypersons predict very small radii, and hence very strong lensing, which will require highly nondipolar fields to be able to reproduce the observed pulsed fractions, if possible at all: this may be a new tool to constrain the size of neutron stars. The pulsed fractions obtained in all our models increase with photon energy: the strong decrease observed in Geminga at energies 0.3-0.5 keV is definitely a genuine effect of the magnetic field on the spectrum in contradistinction to the magnetic effects on the surface temperature considered her. Thus, a detailed analysis of thermal emission from the four pulsars we consider will require both complex surface field configurations and the inclusion of magnetic effects in the atmosphere (i.e., on the emitted spectrum).

Page, Dany↗

New methods and results for quantification of lightning-aircraft electrodynamics

The NASA F-106 collected data on the rates of change of electromagnetic parameters on the aircraft surface during over 700 direct lightning strikes while penetrating thunderstorms at altitudes from 15,000 t0 40,000 ft (4,570 to 12,190 m). These in situ measurements provided the basis for the first statistical quantification of the lightning electromagnetic threat to aircraft appropriate for determining indirect lightning effects on aircraft. These data are used to update previous lightning criteria and standards developed over the years from ground-based measurements. The proposed standards will be the first which reflect actual aircraft responses measured at flight altitudes. Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates of the distribution of the peak electromagnetic rates of change for consideration in the new standards are obtained based on peak recorder data for multiple-strike flights. The linear and nonlinear modeling techniques developed provide means to interpret and understand the direct-strike electromagnetic data acquired on the F-106. The reasonable results obtained with the models, compared with measured responses, provide increased confidence that the models may be credibly applied to other aircraft.

Pitts, Felix L.↗

Remote Sensing of Earth Terrain

Theoretical models that are useful and practical in relating remote sensing data to the important physical parameters characterizing Earth terrain are developed. The development of models that are useful in data analysis and interpretation, scene simulation, and developing new remote sensing approaches and techniques is discussed. Numerous theoretical models that are applicable to the active and passive remote sensing of plowed fields, atmospheric precipitation, vegetation, and snow fields were developed. The radiative transfer theory is used to interpret the active and passive data as a function of rain rate. Both the random medium model and the discrete scatterer model is used to study the remote sensing of vegetation fields. Due to the non-spherical geometry of the scatterers there is strong azimuthal dependence in the observed data. Thus, the anisotropic random medium model and the discrete scatterer model with nonspherical particles was developed. In order to relate the remote sensing data to the actual physical parameters, the scattering of electromagnetic waves from randomly distributed dielectric scatterers was studied. Both the rigorous random discrete scatterer theory and the strong fluctuation theory are used to derive the backscattering cross section in terms of the actual physical parameters and the results agree well with the data obtained from the snow fields.

Kong, J. A.↗

Structure and evolution of solar radio bursts at 26.4 MHz

Results are reported for multiple-baseline interferometric measurements of type II, III, IV, and V solar radio bursts at 26.4 MHz. Thirty-two burst events in a two-month period are analyzed by fitting a double-Gaussian two-dimensional source-brightness distribution model to the observed interferometer visibility function. The multibaseline time-sharing interferometer system employed is described in detail, the model-fitting technique is outlined, and values of the model-fit parameters are given for all 32 cases, which include two type II bursts, three type IV bursts, 17 type III bursts, seven type V bursts, and three bursts of type III, V pairs. The temporal evolution of source structure, size, and motion is examined for the different burst types. The core-halo source structure for the type III bursts is interpreted in comparison to two models, one of which assumes scattering and refraction of a point source while the other postulates primarily refraction from an ensemble of sources distributed over a wide sector in solar longitude.

Chen, H. S.-L.↗

Interactive computer graphic surface modeling of three-dimensional solid domains for boundary element analysis

The establishment of the boundary element method (BEM) as a valid tool for solving problems in structural mechanics and in other fields of applied physics is discussed. The development of an integrated interactive computer graphic system for the application of the BEM to three dimensional problems in elastostatics is described. The integration of interactive computer graphic techniques and the BEM takes place at the preprocessing and postprocessing stages of the analysis process, when, respectively, the data base is generated and the results are interpreted. The interactive computer graphic modeling techniques used for generating and discretizing the boundary surfaces of a solid domain are outlined.

Perucchio, R.↗

AMMPER: a user-friendly agent-based model that recapitulates simple metabolic responses of yeast to deep-space radiation

For humans venturing to deep space, radiation exposure poses a major health risk. Fundamental research into the biological effects of space radiation are essential for enabling exploration, and the first experimental organisms we send to deep space will be microbial. Yet there are many ways in which microorganisms are likely to experience the effects of high-energy particle radiation (such as Galactic Cosmic Rays) differently from multicellular animals, partly due to the simple fact that microbes are small and unicellular-- less likely to get hit in the first place, and less likely to communicate damage between cells. Computational modeling can aid in designing experiments and predicting the biological effects of radiation, but thus far particle radiation models have not focused on microbes. Here we present the latest developments in AMMPER, the Agent-based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation. Originally written in 2021, AMMPER is a Python-based model that incorporates radiation track data from NASA's RITRACKS software and simulates the growth, damage, and death of yeast cells in 3D. It is now freely available as an open-source package on NASA's GitHub repository. Recent improvements include the ability to simulate the dynamics of alamarBlue, a color-changing redox dye commonly used to track metabolic activity in microbial spaceflight experiments. We demonstrate that a simple blue-pink-clear transition model is able to recapitulate key features observed in empirical data from ground studies. AMMPER also includes a new graphical user interface and introductory tutorial to facilitate ease of use by a wider audience. AMMPER can help us to understand how spatially heterogeneous particle radiation damage at the single-cell level can translate to growth differences at the population level, ultimately allowing us to better interpret experiments using microbes as model organisms and how well their results apply to humans.

yeast↗