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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

ARETE: Accurate Error Assessment via Machine Learning-Guided Dynamic-Timing Analysis

Nanometer circuits are increasingly prone to timing errors, escalating the need for fault injection frameworks to accurately evaluate their impact on applications. Here in this paper, we propose ARETE, a novel cross-layer, fault-injection framework that combines dynamic-binary instrumentation with machine learning-guided dynamic-timing analysis. ARETE enables accurate fault-injection into any application by estimating the location of the injecting errors via dynamic-timing analysis. To accelerate fault-injection, we develop a novel, data-aware, machine learning-based mechanism that dynamically pre-selects the error-prone instructions and limits the application of the costly dynamic-timing analysis only to them. To evaluate ARETE's accuracy, our fully automated toolflow is configured to support fault-injection based on detailed post-layout gate-level simulations as well as via existing workload-agnostic error models. Our results for various workloads, including an autonomous-driving library, show that the location and time of injected errors performed by ARETE, is 89.9% consistent with fault-injection based on full gate-level simulation. On average, ARETE executes 84.6x faster than gate-level simulation and at a cost of 3.4% loss in the program output quality estimation. When compared to the existing statistical fault-injection tools that are based on workload-agnostic error models, ARETE improves the accuracy of fault-injection rate and output quality estimation by 143.9% and 40.4% on average, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1986

Simulation and study of small numbers of random events

Random events were simulated by computer and subjected to various statistical methods to extract important parameters. Various forms of curve fitting were explored, such as least squares, least distance from a line, maximum likelihood. Problems considered were dead time, exponential decay, and spectrum extraction from cosmic ray data using binned data and data from individual events. Computer programs, mostly of an iterative nature, were developed to do these simulations and extractions and are partially listed as appendices. The mathematical basis for the compuer programs is given.

Shelton, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Taking the initiative: A leadership conference for women in science and engineering

The conference sprang from discussions on the current climate that women face in science, mathematics, engineering, and technology. The conference (and this document) is a beginning, not a culmination, of women's learning leadership skills. Conferees were active, articulate, energetic, and ready to learn leadership qualities, some of which seem universal, others that appear to require skills in specific fields. After the introduction, the workshops and presentations are arranged under vision and direction, barriers, alignment and communication, and motivation and inspiration. Some statistics are presented on women degrees and employment in various fields.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning model for predicting the minimum miscibility pressure of CO 2 and crude oil system based on a support vector machine algorithm approach

CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a potential way for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Though, the effect of CO 2 injection is greatly influenced by the reservoir conditions. Typically, Minimum miscible pressure (MMP) is selected as one of the key parameters for the screening and evaluation of prospective CO 2 flooding. Conventional slim tube test is both accurate and widely accepted but it is inefficient. Existing empirical formulas for MMPs are easy to be used but have been proved inaccurate and unreliable. Machine learning-based methods have great advantages in predicting MMP. However, only predication accuracy is discussed for most models without the screening of the main control factors and further validation of the model reliability. In this paper, a new prediction model based on support vector machine (SVM) was developed for pure/impure CO 2 and crude oil system. This study was based on 147 sets of MMP data from the literature with full information on reservoir temperature, oil composition and gas composition. The main control factors were screened by several statistical methods. Unlike the conventional prediction models that verified by only prediction accuracy, learning curve and single factor control variable analysis are further validated to obtain the optimum model.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Regression of exchangeable relational arrays

Relational arrays represent measures of association between pairs of actors, often in varied contexts or over time. Trade flows between countries, financial transactions between individuals, contact frequencies between school children in classrooms and dynamic protein-protein interactions are all examples of relational arrays. Elements of a relational array are often modelled as a linear function of observable covariates. Uncertainty estimates for regression coefficient estimators, and ideally the coefficient estimators themselves, must account for dependence between elements of the array, e.g., relations involving the same actor. Existing estimators of standard errors that recognize such relational dependence rely on estimating extremely complex, heterogeneous structure across actors. This paper develops a new class of parsimonious coefficient and standard error estimators for regressions of relational arrays. Here we leverage an exchangeability assumption to derive standard error estimators that pool information across actors, and are substantially more accurate than existing estimators in a variety of settings. This exchangeability assumption is pervasive in network and array models in the statistics literature, but not previously considered when adjusting for dependence in a regression setting with relational data. We demonstrate improvements in inference theoretically, via a simulation study, and by analysis of a dataset involving international trade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seeing is Believing: Autonomous Microscopy and the Data Revolution in Materials Science

This presentation explores the transformative potential of autonomous electron microscopy and artificial intelligence (AI) in accelerating materials science discovery, particularly for energy applications and materials operating in extreme environments. We discuss pioneering self-driving laboratories at NREL designed to intelligently probe material synthesis and degradation across multiple scales, aiming to rapidly bridge the gap between atomic-level understanding and the development of high-performance, reliable materials. Utilizing advanced machine learning techniques, such as few-shot learning and multimodal analysis integrating imaging and spectroscopy, we demonstrate methods to extract actionable descriptors for material behavior, quantify complex microstructural evolution, and statistically link synthesis parameters to defect populations. This AI-driven approach promises to accelerate the creation of predictive materials tailored for specific missions, enabling faster development cycles and enhanced material assurance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1963

Mathematical Optimization Techniques

The papers collected in this volume were presented at the Symposium on Mathematical Optimization Techniques held in the Santa Monica Civic Auditorium, Santa Monica, California, on October 18-20, 1960. The objective of the symposium was to bring together, for the purpose of mutual education, mathematicians, scientists, and engineers interested in modern optimization techniques. Some 250 persons attended. The techniques discussed included recent developments in linear, integer, convex, and dynamic programming as well as the variational processes surrounding optimal guidance, flight trajectories, statistical decisions, structural configurations, and adaptive control systems. The symposium was sponsored jointly by the University of California, with assistance from the National Science Foundation, the Office of Naval Research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and The RAND Corporation, through Air Force Project RAND.

Bellman, R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

NASA NTRS1995

On the spatial distribution of magnetic fields on the solar surface

Recent measurements of solar surface magnetic fields suggest that the spatial distribution of these fields is fractal. In order to understand the physical basis for such geometric complexity, we study here the advection of magnetic flux tubes relatively simple random motions on the surface of a fluid and investigate the spatial statistics of the resulting surface field. While this study does not directly address the question of why solar surface fields have the observed spatial structure, it is designed to build our intuition about how surface flows lead to complex spatial structuring of magnetic fields. As part of our study, we discuss the various methods by which one can describe the spatial distribution of the surface magnetic flux and relate them mathematically; this turns out to be a crucial point of our work since, as we show, a number of previous analyses have misinterpreted the analysis procedures for determining fractal dimensions. Our principal result is the explicit demonstration that simple random flows lead to magnetic flux spatial distributions with a multifractal dimension spectrum. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this magnetic spatial structure is generic, i.e., is characteristic of a very large class of random flows.

Tao, L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic learning and updating of a digital twin for composite material systems

This paper presents an approach for characterizing and estimating statistical dependence between a large number of observables in a composite material system. Conditional regression is carried out using the estimated joint density function, permitting a systematic exploration of interdependence between fine scale and coarse observables that can be used for both prognosis and design of complex material systems. An example demonstrates the integration of experimental data with a computational database. The statistical approach is based on the probabilistic learning on manifolds recently developed by the authors. This approach leverages intrinsic structure detected through diffusion on graphs with projected stochastic differential equations to generate samples constrained to that structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Complexity of Quantum Learning

Abstract Learning problems involve settings in which an algorithm has to make decisions based on data, and possibly side information such as expert knowledge. This study has two main goals. First, it reviews and generalizes different results on the data and model complexity of quantum learning, where the data and/or the algorithm can be quantum, focusing on information‐theoretic techniques. Second, it introduces the notion of copy complexity, which quantifies the number of copies of a quantum state required to achieve a target accuracy level. Copy complexity arises from the destructive nature of quantum measurements, which irreversibly alter the state to be processed, limiting the information that can be extracted about quantum data. As a result, empirical risk minimization is generally inapplicable. The paper presents novel results on the copy complexity for both training and testing. To make the paper self‐contained and approachable by different research communities, an extensive background material is provided on classical results from statistical learning theory, as well as on the distinguishability of quantum states. Throughout, the differences between quantum and classical learning are highlighted by addressing both supervised and unsupervised learning, and extensive pointers are provided to the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Topological aspects of matters and Langlands program

The Langlands program is a vast mathematical projection linking number theory and geometry. In high-energy physics, a connection with mirror symmetry has been suggested in string theory, but it has been little studied in low-energy physics. In the framework of the Langlands program, we present a unified description of the integer and fractional quantum Hall effect and the duality found in the fractal nature of the energy spectrum of two-dimensional Bloch electrons, statistical physics, and quantum computation. The new unified view of existing dualism presented in this paper raises the entirely new question of how each theory of physics is connected as a piece of the Langlands program.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the effect of hypersonic boundary layer turbulence on antenna performance: A computational approach

The degradation of antenna performance during hypersonic re-entry is a well known phenomenon that can lead to complete radio blackout. Recent additions to the Empire code establish it as a tool for the study and analysis of the problem. Coupling to the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC) enables the electromagnetic analysis of realistic re-entry plasma profiles. The geometric flexibility afforded by both Empire and SPARC allow the consideration of arbitrary vehicle and antenna configurations. We have used this tool to study antenna performance during re-entry when the boundary layer becomes turbulent. A concise description of line-of-sight transmissions, which employs advanced statistical methods, was developed. New insights into the low altitude reflectometer readings of RAM-C2 are offered. Techniques for the reconstruction of the re-entry plasma profile from reflectometer data were explored.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Decomposition of Electron Ionization Mass Spectra for Space Application Using a Monte-Carlo approach

Rationale: Quadrupole mass spectrometers equipped with an electron ionization (EI) sources have been widely used in space exploration to investigate the composition of planetary surfaces and atmospheres. However, the complexity of the samples and the minimal calibration for the fragmentation of molecules in the ionization chambers have prevented the deconvolution of the majority of the mass spectra obtained at different targets, thus limiting the determination of the exact composition of the samples analyzed. We propose a Monte‐Carlo approach to solve this issue mathematically. Methods: We decomposed simulated mass spectra of mixtures acquired with unit resolving power mass spectrometers and EI sources into the sum of the single components fragmentation patterns weighted by their relative concentration using interior‐point least‐square fitting. To fit compounds with poorly known fragmentation patterns, we used a Monte‐Carlo method to vary the intensity of individual fragment ions. We then decomposed the spectrum thousands of times to obtain a statistical distribution. Results: By performing the deconvolution on a mixture of seven different molecules with interfering fragmentation patterns (H2O, O2, CH4, Ar, N2, C2H4, and C2H6) we show that this approach retrieves the mixing ratio of the individual components more accurately than regular mass spectra decomposition methods that rely on fragmentation patterns from general databases. It also provides the probability density function for each species's mixing ratio. Conclusions: By removing the solution degeneracy in the decomposition of mass spectra, the method described herein could significantly increase the scientific retrieval from archived space flight mass spectrometry data, where calibration of the ionization source is no longer an option.

Thomas Gautier↗