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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Based Metamodel for Faster Life Cycle Assessment of Large Portfolio of Buildings

Managing a large portfolio of buildings involves decisions on reuse, retrofit, renovation, rehabilitation, and new construction, influenced by trade-offs between performance metrics such as cost, time, and operational flexibility over the building's life cycle. Traditional life cycle assessment tools for evaluating these metrics can be labor- and compute-intensive, requiring extensive data and modeling for each building. Metamodels (or surrogate models) using machine learning have been explored as faster alternatives, but training these models has been hindered by the limited availability of comprehensive data on key life cycle metrics. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly deep learning techniques like zero-shot and few-shot learning, allow models to learn from sparse or limited data. We propose a machine learning-based metamodel that leverages these techniques for rapid estimation of key building life cycle metrics. This presentation will cover the model architecture, data collection, training, and validation processes, along with an ongoing case study applied to a large portfolio of buildings. We will discuss the model's performance in terms of accuracy, compute time, limitations, and its potential for expanding to additional life cycle metrics. This data-driven approach offers a promising direction for the rapid evaluation of large building portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced characterization-informed machine learning framework and quantitative insight to irradiated annular U-10Zr metallic fuels

Abstract U-10Zr Metal fuel is a promising nuclear fuel candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast spectrum reactors. Since the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II in the late 1960s, researchers accumulated a considerable amount of experience and knowledge on fuel performance at the engineering scale. However, a mechanistic understanding of fuel microstructure evolution and property degradation during in-reactor irradiation is still missing due to a lack of appropriate tools for rapid fuel microstructure assessment and property prediction based on post irradiation examination. This paper proposed a machine learning enabled workflow, coupled with domain knowledge and large dataset collected from advanced post-irradiation examination microscopies, to provide rapid and quantified assessments of the microstructure in two reactor irradiated prototypical annular metal fuels. Specifically, this paper revealed the distribution of Zr-bearing secondary phases and constitutional redistribution across different radial locations. Additionally, the ratios of seven different microstructures at various locations along the temperature gradient were quantified. Moreover, the distributions of fission gas pores on two types of U-10Zr annular fuels were quantitatively compared.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Machine Learning Approach to Disentangle Multitemperature Regions in Galaxy Clusters

The hot intracluster medium (ICM) surrounding the heart of galaxy clusters is a complex medium that comprises various emitting components. Although previous studies of nearby galaxy clusters, such as the Perseus, the Coma, or the Virgo cluster, have demonstrated the need for multiple thermal components when spectroscopically fitting the ICM’s X-ray emission, no systematic methodology for calculating the number of underlying components currently exists. In turn, underestimating or overestimating the number of components can cause systematic errors in the emission parameter estimations. In this paper, we present a novel approach to determining the number of components using an amalgam of machine learning techniques. Synthetic spectra containing a various number of underlying thermal components were created using well-established tools available from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. The dimensions of the training set was initially reduced using principal component analysis and then categorized based on the number of underlying components using a random forest classifier. Our trained and tested algorithm was subsequently applied to Chandra X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster. Our results demonstrate that machine learning techniques can efficiently and reliably estimate the number of underlying thermal components in the spectra of galaxy clusters, regardless of the thermal model (MEKAL versus APEC). We also confirm that the core of the Perseus cluster contains a mix of differing underlying thermal components. We emphasize that although this methodology was trained and applied on Chandra X-ray observations, it is readily portable to other current (e.g., XMM-Newton, eROSITA) and upcoming (e.g., Athena, Lynx, XRISM) X-ray telescopes. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/XtraAstronomy/Pumpkin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

cTULIP: application of a human-based RNA-seq primary tumor classification tool for cross-species primary tumor classification in canine

The domestic dog, Canis familiaris, is quickly gaining traction as an advantageous model for use in the study of cancer, one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Naturally occurring canine cancers share clinical, histological, and molecular characteristics with the corresponding human diseases. In this study, we take a deep-learning approach to test how similar the gene expression profile of canine glioma and bladder cancer (BLCA) tumors are to the corresponding human tumors. We likewise develop a tool for identifying misclassified or outlier samples in large canine oncological datasets, analogous to that which was developed for human datasets. We test a number of machine learning algorithms and found that a convolutional neural network outperformed logistic regression and random forest approaches. We use a recently developed RNA-seq-based convolutional neural network, TULIP, to test the robustness of a human-data-trained primary tumor classification tool on cross-species primary tumor prediction. Our study ultimately highlights the molecular similarities between canine and human BLCA and glioma tumors, showing that protein-coding one-to-one homologs shared between humans and canines, are sufficient to distinguish between BLCA and gliomas. The results of this study indicate that using protein-coding one-to-one homologs as the features in the input layer of TULIP performs good primary tumor prediction in both humans and canines. Furthermore, our analysis shows that our selected features also contain the majority of features with known clinical relevance in BLCA and gliomas. Our success in using a human-data-trained model for cross-species primary tumor prediction also sheds light on the conservation of oncological pathways in humans and canines, further underscoring the importance of the canine model system in the study of human disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chemistry-mediated Ostwald ripening in carbon-rich C/O systems at extreme conditions

Abstract There is significant interest in establishing a capability for tailored synthesis of next-generation carbon-based nanomaterials due to their broad range of applications and high degree of tunability. High pressure (e.g., shockwave-driven) synthesis holds promise as an effective discovery method, but experimental challenges preclude elucidating the processes governing nanocarbon production from carbon-rich precursors that could otherwise guide efforts through the prohibitively expansive design space. Here we report findings from large scale atomistically-resolved simulations of carbon condensation from C/O mixtures subjected to extreme pressures and temperatures, made possible by machine-learned reactive interatomic potentials. We find that liquid nanocarbon formation follows classical growth kinetics driven by Ostwald ripening (i.e., growth of large clusters at the expense of shrinking small ones) and obeys dynamical scaling in a process mediated by carbon chemistry in the surrounding reactive fluid. The results provide direct insight into carbon condensation in a representative system and pave the way for its exploration in higher complexity organic materials. They also suggest that simulations using machine-learned interatomic potentials could eventually be employed as in-silico design tools for new nanomaterials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are identifying hidden geothermal resources in the USA and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many non-obvious processes and parameters could characterize geothermal resources and could control the ultimate energy potential of geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize geothermal resources, but this data is sparse and multi-scale. This has hindered attempts to leverage the datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) give promise to overcome these issues. Modern ML methods and tools can (1) analyze large datasets, (2) assimilate model ensembles that include a multitude of inputs and outputs, (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning between sites with different data quality, (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures from field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. In this work, we implement ML-based geothermal exploration and an enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tool to achieve the above goals. Our exploration tool is GeoThermalCloud (GTC) EGS design tool is GeoDT-ML. GTC (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. It enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. GeoDT-ML (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/) adds coupling to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git) for stochastic EGS design optimization and performance prediction. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. Contributors to this effort include LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dial

A key step in almost all scientific endeavors is answering the question: Given this data I already collected, what new data do I expect will yield the most useful information toward my scientific objective? The area of (sequential) experimental design has long been investigating answers to this question, but in recent years techniques from the machine learning subfield of active learning are increasingly applied. Researchers need a simple software tool for active learning applied to experimental design that can easily integrate into their existing workflows. This computer code, Dial, provides a microservice in ORNL's INTERSECT ecosystem for active learning applied to experimental design. By being part of the INTERSECT ecosystem, Dial is simple to integrate into any INTERSECT-based workflow. Dial provides multiple backend options, where a backend is an implementation of a specific active learning method. Users can select the backend that performs best for their application. Developers can also add new backends as needed. At its core, Dial receives a set of pre-existing measurements and input parameter bounds and then recommends one or more new sets of parameters to measure. Dial also includes interfaces to other microservices in the INTERSECT ecosystem so that it can be incorporated into INTERSECT campaigns. Dial provides a simple, yet powerful interface to convert automated INTERSECT workflows into autonomous workflows that adapt based on the results that are obtained. A shared microservice for active learning prevents duplicated effort by each application team implementing its own adaptive design of experiments tool.

Drane, Lance [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine-Learning Approach to Assess Aircraft Engine System Performance

Artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning, and big data are transforming the global business environment. They have become the most disruptive technologies for organizations to improve workplace efficiency and productivity. This work explored the application of machine learning-based predictive analytics that would enable aircraft engine designers to estimate engine system performance quickly during the conceptual design stage. Supervised machine-learning algorithm was employed to study patterns in an existing database of production and research turbofan engines, and built predictive analytics for use in predicting system performance of new turbofan designs. Specifically, the author developed deep-learning analytics to predict turbofan system weight, using turbofan design parameters as the input. The predictive analytics were trained and deployed in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application program interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (an open-source artificial AI library developed by Google) serving as the backend engine. The current engine-weight prediction results, together with those for the TSFC (thrust specific fuel consumption) and core-size predictions that were studied previously by the author, show that machine learning-based predictive analytics can be an effective, time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. It would enable expeditious identification of the best engine design amongst several candidates.

Michael T Tong↗

DOE OSTI2021

CERES: CRISPR Engineering for the Rapid Enhancement of Strains

Previous strain development efforts for cyanobacteria have failed to achieve the necessary productivities needed to support economic biofuel production. We proposed to develop CRISPR Engineering for Rapid Enhancement of Strains (CERES). We developed genetic and computational tools to enable future high-throughput screening of CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) libraries in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002, including: (1) Operon- SEQer: an ensemble of algorithms for predicting operon pairs using RNA-seq data, (2) experimental characterization and machine learning prediction of gRNA design rules for CRISPRi, and (3) a shuttle vector for gene expression. These tools lay the foundation for CRISPR library screening to develop cyanobacterial strains that are optimized for growth or metabolite production under a wide range of environmental conditions. The optimization of cyanobacterial strains will directly advance U.S. energy and climate security by enabling domestic biofuel production while simultaneously mitigating atmospheric greenhouse gases through photoautotrophic fixation of carbon dioxide.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

DOE OSTI2025

hashin_shtrikman_mp: a package for the optimal design and discovery of multi-phase composite materials

hashin_shtrikman_mp is a tool for composites designers who have desired composite properties in mind, but who do not yet have an underlying formulation. The library utilizes the tightest theoretical bounds on the effective properties of composite materials with unspecified microstructure – the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds – to identify candidate theoretical materials, find real materials that are close to the candidates, and determine the optimal volume fractions for each of the constituents in the resulting composite. Its features include (i) leveraging of materials in the Materials Project database, (ii) integration with the Materials Project API, (iii) use of genetic machine-learning, (iv) agnosticism to underlying microstructure, and (v) ultimate engineering application, make it a tool with much broader applications than its predecessors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data Science in Chemical Engineering: Applications to Molecular Science

Chemical engineering is being rapidly transformed by the tools of data science. On the horizon, artificial intelligence (AI) applications will impact a huge swath of our work, ranging from the discovery and design of new molecules to operations and manufacturing and many areas in between. Early adoption of data science, machine learning, and early examples of AI in chemical engineering has been rich with examples of molecular data science—the application tools for molecular discovery and property optimization at the atomic scale. Here, we summarize key advances in this nascent subfield while introducing molecular data science for a broad chemical engineering readership. We introduce the field through the concept of a molecular data science life cycle and discuss relevant aspects of five distinct phases of this process: creation of curated data sets, molecular representations, data-driven property prediction, generation of new molecules, and feasibility and synthesizability considerations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Based Crater Detection for Terrain Relative Navigation

As Lunar exploration continues to become more commonplace, reliable methods of precise Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) are needed. While there are many TRN techniques available, one that has received increased interest in the past few years is that of crater based navigation. Crater based navigation has numerous benefits, including being a human recognizable feature (important for crewed missions), as well as the fact that craters are often possible hazards that need to be detected and avoided. The use of crater based navigation has been limited however. This has been due to the difficulty of running such algorithms on board a spacecraft, as well as the difficulty in procuring large amounts of the required training data. This paper presents a new rendering tool for generating large amounts of high quality training data. It then looks at two recently developed machine learning techniques for crater detection and crater identification in real-time on near-future space hardware.

computer vision↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modular performance prediction for scientific workflows using Machine Learning

Scientific workflows provide an opportunity for declarative computational experiment design in an intuitive and efficient way. A distributed workflow is typically executed on a variety of resources, and it uses a variety of computational algorithms or tools to achieve the desired outcomes. Such a variety imposes additional complexity in scheduling these workflows on large scale computers. As computation becomes more distributed, insights into expected workload that a workflow presents become critical for effective resource allocation. In this paper, we present a modular framework that leverages Machine Learning for creating precise performance predictions of a workflow. The central idea is to partition a workflow in such a way that makes the task of forecasting each atomic unit manageable and gives us a way to combine the individual predictions efficiently. We recognize a combination of an executable and a specific physical resource as a single module. This gives us a handle to characterize workload and machine power as a single unit of prediction. Overall, our modular technique of creating atomic modules and deployment of longest-path approach to estimate workflow performance, allows the framework to adapt to highly complex nested directed acyclic workflows and scale to new scenarios, since it does not make assumptions of underlying workflow structure. We present performance estimation results of independent workflow modules executed on the XSEDE SDSC Comet cluster using various Machine Learning algorithms. The results provide insights into the behavior and effectiveness of different algorithms in the context of scientific workflow performance prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying Deep Learning for Wildfire Identification: Economical and Accessible Solutions Leveraging Small Datasets

Wildfires significantly impact human health, air quality, visibility, weather, and climate change and cause substantial economic losses. While state and county-operated air quality monitors provide critical insights during wildfires, they are not available in all regions. This highlights the need for affordable, accessible tools that allow the general public to assess air quality impacts. In this study, we apply machine learning with deep neural networks to diagnose air quality rapidly from sky images taken at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA, USA. Using a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework, we trained a deep learning model to classify air quality indices based on sky images. By leveraging transfer learning, our approach fine-tunes a pre-trained model on a small dataset of sky images, significantly reducing training time while maintaining high accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning to provide rapid air quality diagnostics during wildfire episodes, offering early warnings to the public and enabling timely mitigation strategies, particularly for vulnerable populations. Additionally, we show that lower respiratory infections pose the highest health risk during acute smoke exposures. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) from wildfire particles further exacerbate health risks by triggering inflammation and other adverse effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗