SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Validating sequential Monte Carlo for gravitational-wave inference

Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalescences. It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements, but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes and binary neutron stars and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.

black hole mergers↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: $w$CDM cosmology from simulation-based inference with persistent homology on the sphere

We present cosmological constraints from Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using persistent homology, a topological data analysis technique that tracks how features like clusters and voids evolve across density thresholds. For the first time, we apply spherical persistent homology to galaxy survey data through the algorithm TopoS2, which is optimized for curved-sky analyses and HEALPix compatibility. Employing a simulation-based inference framework with the Gower Street simulation suite, specifically designed to mimic DES Y3 data properties, we extract topological summary statistics from convergence maps across multiple smoothing scales and redshift bins. After neural network compression of these statistics, we estimate the likelihood function and validate our analysis against baryonic feedback effects, finding minimal biases (under $0.3σ$) in the $Ω_\mathrm{m}-S_8$ plane. Assuming the $w$CDM model, our combined Betti numbers and second moments analysis yields $S_8 = 0.821 \pm 0.018$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.304\pm0.037$-constraints 70% tighter than those from cosmic shear two-point statistics in the same parameter plane. Our results demonstrate that topological methods provide a powerful and robust framework for extracting cosmological information, with our spherical methodology readily applicable to upcoming Stage IV wide-field galaxy surveys.

Prat, J. [Nordita; Royal Inst. Tech., Sodertalje; ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping the cosmic gamma-ray horizon: the 1CGH catalogue of Fermi -LAT detections above 10 GeV

ABSTRACT We present the First Cosmic Gamma-ray Horizon (1CGH) catalogue, featuring $\gamma$-ray detections above 10 GeV based on 16 yr of observations with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) satellite. After carefully selecting a sample of blazars and blazar candidates from catalogues in the literature, we performed a binned likelihood analysis and identified 2791 $\gamma$-ray emitters above 10 GeV, at >3$\sigma$ level, including 62 that are new $\gamma$-ray detections. For each source, we estimated the mean energy of the highest energy bin and analysed them in the context of the cosmic gamma-ray horizon. By adopting a reference model for the extragalactic background light (EBL), we identified a subsample of 525 sources where moderate to severe $\gamma$-ray absorption could be detected across the redshift range of 0–3. This work provides the most up-to-date compilation of detections above 10 GeV, along with their redshift information. We condense extensive results from the literature, including reports on observational campaigns dedicated to blazars and $\gamma$-ray sources, thereby delivering an unprecedented review of the redshift information for sources detected above 10 GeV. Additionally, we highlight key 1CGH sources where redshift information remains incomplete, offering guidance for future optical observation campaigns. The 1CGH catalogue aims to track the most significant sources for studying the $\gamma$-ray transparency of the Universe. Furthermore, it provides a targeted subsample where the EBL optical depth, $\tau _{(E,z)}$, can be robustly measured using Fermi-LAT data.

Arsioli, Bruno (ORCID:0000000181666602)↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI peculiar velocity survey – Fundamental Plane

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) peculiar velocity survey aims to measure the peculiar velocities of early- and late-type galaxies within the DESI footprint using both the Fundamental Plane and optical Tully–Fisher relations. Direct measurements of peculiar velocities can significantly improve constraints on the growth rate of structure, reducing uncertainty by a factor of approximately 2.5 at redshift 0.1 compared to the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey’s redshift space distortion measurements alone. We assess the quality of stellar velocity dispersion measurements from DESI spectroscopic data. These measurements, along with photometric data from the Legacy Survey, establish the Fundamental Plane relation and determine distances and peculiar velocities of early-type galaxies. During survey validation, we obtain spectra for 6698 unique early-type galaxies, up to a photometric redshift of 0.15. 64 per cent of observed galaxies (4267) have relative velocity dispersion errors below 10 per cent. This percentage increases to 75 per cent if we restrict our sample to galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts below 0.1. We use the measured central velocity dispersion, along with photometry from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys, to fit the Fundamental Plane parameters using a 3D Gaussian maximum likelihood algorithm that accounts for measurement uncertainties and selection cuts. In addition, we conduct zero-point calibration using the absolute distance measurements to the Coma cluster, leading to a value of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 76.05 ± 0.35 (statistical) ±0.49 (systematic Fundamental Plane) ±4.86 (statistical due to calibration) km s –1 Mpc –1 ⁠. This H 0 value is within 2σ of Planck cosmic microwave background results and within 1σ of other low-redshift distance indicator-based measurements.

cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2024

Substitution Models of Protein Evolution with Selection on Enzymatic Activity

Abstract Substitution models of evolution are necessary for diverse evolutionary analyses including phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequence reconstructions. At the protein level, empirical substitution models are traditionally used due to their simplicity, but they ignore the variability of substitution patterns among protein sites. Next, in order to improve the realism of the modeling of protein evolution, a series of structurally constrained substitution models were presented, but still they usually ignore constraints on the protein activity. Here, we present a substitution model of protein evolution with selection on both protein structure and enzymatic activity, and that can be applied to phylogenetics. In particular, the model considers the binding affinity of the enzyme–substrate complex as well as structural constraints that include the flexibility of structural flaps, hydrogen bonds, amino acids backbone radius of gyration, and solvent-accessible surface area that are quantified through molecular dynamics simulations. We applied the model to the HIV-1 protease and evaluated it by phylogenetic likelihood in comparison with the best-fitting empirical substitution model and a structurally constrained substitution model that ignores the enzymatic activity. We found that accounting for selection on the protein activity improves the fitting of the modeled functional regions with the real observations, especially in data with high molecular identity, which recommends considering constraints on the protein activity in the development of substitution models of evolution.

Ferreiro, David↗

DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survey of Gravitationally lensed objects in HSC Imaging (SuGOHI). VIII. New galaxy-scale lenses from the HSC SSP

Abstract We conduct a search for galaxy-scale strong gravitational lens systems in Data Release 4 of the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC SSP), consisting of data taken up to the S21A semester. We select 103191 luminous red galaxies from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) sample that have deep multiband imaging from the HSC SSP and use the YattaLens algorithm to identify lens candidates with blue arc-like features automatically. The candidates are visually inspected and graded based on their likelihood of being a lens. We find eight definite lenses, 28 probable lenses, and 138 possible lenses. The new lens candidates generally have lens redshifts in the range 0.3 ≲ zL ≲ 0.9, a key intermediate redshift range to study the evolution of galaxy structure. Follow-up spectroscopy will confirm these new lenses and measure source redshifts to enable detailed lens modeling.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Singlet Oxygen Leads to Structural Changes to Chloroplasts during their Degradation in the Arabidopsis thaliana plastid ferrochelatase two Mutant

Abstract During stress, chloroplasts produce large amounts of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Chloroplasts also contain many nutrients, including 80% of a leaf’s nitrogen supply. Therefore, to protect cells from photo-oxidative damage and to redistribute nutrients to sink tissues, chloroplasts are prime targets for degradation. Multiple chloroplast degradation pathways are induced by photo-oxidative stress or nutrient starvation, but the mechanisms by which damaged or senescing chloroplasts are identified, transported to the central vacuole and degraded are poorly defined. Here, we investigated the structures involved with degrading chloroplasts induced by the ROS singlet oxygen (1O2) in the Arabidopsis thaliana plastid ferrochelatase two (fc2) mutant. Under mild 1O2 stress, most fc2 chloroplasts appeared normal, but had reduced starch content. A subset of chloroplasts was degrading, and some protruded into the central vacuole via ‘blebbing’ structures. A 3D electron microscopy analysis demonstrated that up to 35% of degrading chloroplasts contained such structures. While the location of a chloroplast within a cell did not affect the likelihood of its degradation, chloroplasts in spongy mesophyll cells were degraded at a higher rate than those in palisade mesophyll cells. To determine if degrading chloroplasts have unique structural characteristics, allowing them to be distinguished from healthy chloroplasts, we analyzed fc2 seedlings grown under different levels of photo-oxidative stress. A correlation was observed among chloroplast swelling, 1O2 signaling and the state of degradation. Finally, plastoglobule (PG) enzymes involved in chloroplast disassembly were upregulated while PGs increased their association with the thylakoid grana, implicating an interaction between 1O2-induced chloroplast degradation and senescence pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pulse Shape Discrimination in JSNS 2

JSNS 2 (J-PARC Sterile Neutrino Search at J-PARC Spallation Neutron Source) is an experiment that is searching for sterile neutrinos via the observation of $\overline{ν}$ μ → $\overline{ν}$ e appearance oscillations using neutrinos from muon decay-at-rest. For this search, rejecting cosmic-ray-induced neutron events by Pulse Shape Discrimination (PSD) is essential because the JSNS2 detector is located above ground, on the third floor of the building. We have achieved 94.95% ± 0.15% rejection of neutron events while keeping 92.82% ± 1.77% of signal, electron-like events using a data-driven likelihood method. This article will report the PSD technique using the full fiducial volume of the JSNS2 detector.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The emergence and transmission dynamics of HIV-1 CRF07_BC in Mainland China

A total of 1155 partial pol gene sequences of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 CRF07_BC were sampled between 1997 and 2015, spanning 13 provinces in Mainland China and risk groups [heterosexual, injecting drug users (IDU), and men who have sex with men (MSM)] to investigate the evolution, adaptation, spatiotemporal and risk group dynamics, migration patterns, and protein structure of HIV-1 CRF07_BC. Due to the unequal distribution of sequences across time, location, and risk group in the complete dataset (‘full1155’), subsampling methods were used. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis as well as discrete trait analysis of geographical location and risk group were carried out. To study mutations of a cluster of HIV-1 CRF07_BC (CRF07-1), we performed a comparative analysis of this cluster to the other CRF07_BC sequences (‘backbone_295’) and mapped the mutations observed in the respective protein structure. Our findings showed that HIV-1 CRF07_BC most likely originated among IDU in Yunnan Province between October 1992 to July 1993 [95 per cent hightest posterior density (HPD): May 1989–August 1995] and that IDU in Yunnan Province and MSM in Guangdong Province likely served as the viral sources during the early and more recent spread in Mainland China. We also revealed that HIV-1 CRF07-1 has been spreading for roughly 20 years and continues to cause local transmission in Mainland China and worldwide. Overall, our study sheds light on the dynamics of HIV-1 CRF07_BC distribution patterns in Mainland China. Our research may also be useful in formulating public health policies aimed at controlling acquired immune deficiency syndrome in Mainland China and globally.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phylogenetic Diversity and Mycotoxin Potential of Emergent Phytopathogens Within the Fusarium tricinctum Species Complex

Recent studies on multiple continents indicate members of the Fusarium tricinctum species complex (FTSC) are emerging as prevalent pathogens of small-grain cereals, pulses, and other economically important crops. These understudied fusaria produce structurally diverse mycotoxins, among which enniatins (ENNs) and moniliformin (MON) are the most frequent and of greatest concern to food and feed safety. Herein a large survey of fusaria in the Fusarium Research Center and Agricultural Research Service culture collections was undertaken to assess species diversity and mycotoxin potential within the FTSC. A 151-strain collection originating from diverse hosts and substrates from different agroclimatic regions throughout the world was selected from 460 FTSC strains to represent the breadth of FTSC phylogenetic diversity. Evolutionary relationships inferred from a five-locus dataset, using maximum likelihood and parsimony, resolved the 151 strains as 24 phylogenetically distinct species, including nine that are new to science. Of the five genes analyzed, nearly full-length phosphate permease sequences contained the most phylogenetically informative characters, establishing its suitability for species-level phylogenetics within the FTSC. Fifteen of the species produced ENNs, MON, the sphingosine analog 2-amino-14,16-dimethyloctadecan-3-ol (AOD), and the toxic pigment aurofusarin (AUR) on a cracked corn kernel substrate. Interestingly, the five earliest diverging species in the FTSC phylogeny (i.e., F. iranicum, F. flocciferum, F. torulosum, and Fusarium spp. FTSC 8 and 24) failed to produce AOD and MON, but synthesized ENNs and/or AUR. Moreover, our reassessment of nine published phylogenetic studies on the FTSC identified 11 additional novel taxa, suggesting this complex comprises at least 36 species.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Output-weighted sampling for multi-armed bandits with extreme payoffs

We present a new type of acquisition function for online decision-making in multi-armed and contextual bandit problems with extreme payoffs. Specifically, we model the payoff function as a Gaussian process and formulate a novel type of upper confidence bound acquisition function that guides exploration towards the bandits that are deemed most relevant according to the variability of the observed rewards. This is achieved by computing a tractable likelihood ratio that quantifies the importance of the output relative to the inputs and essentially acts as an attention mechanism that promotes exploration of extreme rewards. Our formulation is supported by asymptotic zero-regret guarantees, and its performance is demonstrated across several synthetic benchmarks, as well as two realistic examples involving noisy sensor network data. Finally, we provide a JAX library for efficient bandit optimization using Gaussian processes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stokes-dependent droplet collection efficiency on a NACA 0012 airfoil from droplet-informed simulations with statistical overloading

Accurate modelling of ice accretion on aircraft wings requires analysing droplet impingement on the surface to optimize the design of ice-protection systems. We perform Euler–Lagrange simulations of a droplet-laden flow impinging on a NACA 0012 airfoil. Our study includes water droplets with eight discrete sizes ranging from 1 to 160 microns. We vary the free-stream velocity of the incoming airflow in the range 60 ≤ U ≤ 240 m s −1 and the chord length of the airfoil in the range 0.5 ≤ c ≤ 2 m. Due to the dilute nature of supercooled clouds, one-way coupling is used in the simulations. The effects of droplet breakup and collision are also neglected. To reduce the computational cost, we employ statistical overloading of droplets, allowing us to simulate millions of impinging droplets in a time span on the order of milliseconds. Our results show that the droplet collection efficiency, which measures the likelihood of droplet impingement on the airfoil surface, increases with droplet size and free-stream velocity but decreases with airfoil size. We demonstrate that collection efficiency, impingement velocity and impingement angle are primarily dictated by a single non-dimensional parameter, the droplet Stokes number. We also identify a critical stagnation-streamline Stokes number below which impingements do not occur and use it to estimate the minimum droplet size for impingement. In addition, we observe droplet behaviour to become Stokes number independent at large values of the Stokes number. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

The contributions from the progenitor genomes of the mesopolyploid Brassiceae are evolutionarily distinct but functionally compatible

The members of the tribe Brassiceae share a whole-genome triplication (WGT), and one proposed model for its formation is a two-step pair of hybridizations producing hexaploid descendants. However, evidence for this model is incomplete, and the evolutionary and functional constraints that drove evolution after the hexaploidy are even less understood. Here, we report a new genome sequence of Crambe hispanica , a species sister to most sequenced Brassiceae. Using this new genome and three others that share the hexaploidy, we traced the history of gene loss after the WGT using the Polyploidy Orthology Inference Tool (POInT). We confirm the two-step formation model and infer that there was a significant temporal gap between those two allopolyploidizations, with about a third of the gene losses from the first two subgenomes occurring before the arrival of the third. We also, for the 90,000 individual genes in our study, make parental subgenome assignments, inferring, with measured uncertainty, from which of the progenitor genomes of the allohexaploidy each gene derives. We further show that each subgenome has a statistically distinguishable rate of homoeolog losses. There is little indication of functional distinction between the three subgenomes: the individual subgenomes show no patterns of functional enrichment, no excess of shared protein-protein or metabolic interactions between their members, and no biases in their likelihood of having experienced a recent selective sweep. We propose a "mix and match" model of allopolyploidy, in which subgenome origin drives homoeolog loss propensities but where genes from different subgenomes function together without difficulty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗