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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Confusion-Driven Machine Learning of Structural Phases of a Flexible, Magnetic Stockmayer Polymer

We use a semisupervised, neural-network-based machine learning technique, the confusion method, to investigate structural transitions in magnetic polymers, which we model as chains of magnetic colloidal nanoparticles characterized by dipole–dipole and Lennard-Jones interactions. As input for the neural network, we use the particle positions and magnetic dipole moments of equilibrium polymer configurations, which we generate via replica-exchange Wang–Landau simulations. We demonstrate that by measuring the classification accuracy of neural networks, we can effectively identify transition points between multiple structural phases without any prior knowledge of their existence or location. We corroborate our findings by investigating relevant conventional order parameters. Our study furthermore examines previously unexplored low-temperature regions of the phase diagram, where we find new structural transitions between highly ordered helicoidal polymer configurations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

NASA NTRS1989

Real-time neuromorphic algorithms for inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators

The paper presents an efficient neuromorphic formulation to accurately solve the inverse kinematics problem for redundant manipulators. The approach involves a dynamical learning procedure based on a novel formalism in neural network theory: the concept of 'terminal' attractors. Topographically mapped terminal attractors are used to define a neural network whose synaptic elements can rapidly encapture the inverse kinematics transformations, and, subsequently generalize to compute joint-space coordinates required to achieve arbitrary end-effector configurations. Unlike prior neuromorphic implementations, this technique can also systematically exploit redundancy to optimize kinematic criteria, e.g., torque optimization. Simulations on 3-DOF and 7-DOF redundant manipulators, are used to validate the theoretical framework and illustrate its computational efficacy.

Barhen, Jacob↗

DOE OSTI2022

Control systems and methods to enable autonomous drilling

A system or method for drilling includes autonomously controlling a rotary or percussive drilling process as it transitions through multiple materials with very different dynamics. The method determines a drilling medium based on real-time measurements and comparison to prior drilling data, and identifies the material type, drilling region, and approximately optimal setpoint based on data from at least one operating condition. The controller uses these setpoints initially to execute an optimal search to maximize performance by minimizing mechanical specific energy. Near-bit depth-of-cut estimations are performed using a machine learning prediction deployed in an embedded processor to provide high-speed ROP estimates. The sensing capability is coupled with a near-bit clutching mechanism to support drilling dysfunction mitigation.

Buerger, Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Control systems and methods to enable autonomous drilling

Buerger, Stephen↗

NASA NTRS2014

What Was Learned in Predicting Slender Airframe Aerodynamics with the F16-XL Aircraft

The CAWAPI-2 coordinated project has been underway to improve CFD predictions of slender airframe aerodynamics. The work is focused on two flow conditions and leverages a unique flight data set obtained with the F-16XL aircraft for comparison and verification. These conditions, a low-speed high angle-of-attack case and a transonic low angle-of-attack case, were selected from a prior prediction campaign wherein the CFD failed to provide acceptable results. In re-visiting these two cases, approaches for improved results include better, denser grids using more grid adaptation to local flow features as well as unsteady higher-fidelity physical modeling like hybrid RANS/URANS-LES methods. The work embodies predictions from multiple numerical formulations that are contributed from multiple organizations where some authors investigate other possible factors that could explain the discrepancies in agreement, e.g. effects due to deflected control surfaces during the flight tests, as well as static aeroelastic deflection of the outer wing. This paper presents the synthesis of all the results and findings and draws some conclusions that lead to an improved understanding of the underlying flow physics, and finally making the connections between the physics and aircraft features.

Rizzi, Arthur↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous Experiments in Scanning Probe Microscopy and Spectroscopy: Choosing Where to Explore Polarization Dynamics in Ferroelectrics

Polarization dynamics in ferroelectric materials are explored via automated experiment in piezoresponse force microscopy/spectroscopy (PFM/S). A Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for imaging is developed, and its performance for a variety of acquisition and pathfinding functions is explored using previously acquired data. The optimized algorithm is then deployed on an operational scanning probe microscope (SPM) for finding areas of large electromechanical response in a thin film of PbTiO 3 , with results showing that, with just 20% of the area sampled, most high-response clusters were captured. Furthermore, this approach can allow performing more complex spectroscopies in SPM that were previously not possible due to time constraints and sample stability. Improvements to the framework to enable the incorporation of more prior information and improve efficiency further are modeled and discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2013

STS-114: Engine Cut-Off Sensors Are a No-Go: Teaching Notes for NASA Case Study

This case study format is intended to simulate the experience of facing the same difficult challenges and making the same critical decisions as managers, engineers, and scientists in the Space Shuttle Program. It has been designed for use in the classroom setting to help students develop skills related to decision-making. Students will read about the engine cut-off sensor anomaly which created challenges during the STS-114 mission and have the opportunity to make decisions as lead NASA engineers and Mission Management Team members. Included within this document are three case study presentation options - class discussion, group activity, and open-ended research. Please read the full case prior to in-class presentation to allow ample time for students' analysis and reflection, as well as to prepare additional questions. activities or exercises, material selection, etc. Depending upon the setting of your presentation and the number of participants, please choose at least one presentation format beforehand and plan accordingly. You may expect the following learning objectives by using the proposed formats. Learning Objectives: To enable students to experience the responsibilities of NASA management, engineers, and analysis; to discover possible procedures for investigating system anomalies; to become familiar with the liquid hydrogen low level engine cut-off sensor, including its function, connecting components, and location within the Space Shuttle; and to encourage critical analysis and stimulating discussion of Space Shuttle mission challenges.

Ransom, Khadijah S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Variable rate neural compression for sparse detector data

Particle colliders produce data at extraordinary rates, posing major challenges for transmission and storage. High-throughput compression algorithms are therefore essential. In the sPHENIX experiment taking data at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, a time projection chamber records three-dimensional (3D) particle trajectories that are highly sparse, making conventional learning-free lossy compression ineffective. Convolutional neural networks have surpassed traditional methods in compression ratio and accuracy. However, they fail to exploit sparsity for efficiency. To address these gaps, we present BCAE-VS, a bicephalous convolutional autoencoder with variable compression ratio for sparse data, which adapts compression to input complexity through key-point identification and sparse convolution. BCAE-VS achieves higher accuracy and compression ratios than prior neural approaches while being orders of magnitude smaller. Moreover, its throughput increases with sparsity—a property not observed in other methods. Although it was developed for collider experiments, BCAE-VS readily extends to other sparse data domains, such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensing and 3D microscopy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting resistive wall mode stability in NSTX through balanced random forests and counterfactual explanations

Abstract Recent progress in the disruption event characterization and forecasting framework has shown that machine learning guided by physics theory can be easily implemented as a supporting tool for fast computations of ideal stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas. In order to extend that idea, a customized random forest (RF) classifier that takes into account imbalances in the training data is hereby employed to predict resistive wall mode (RWM) stability for a set of high beta discharges from the NSTX spherical tokamak. More specifically, with this approach each tree in the forest is trained on samples that are balanced via a user-defined over/under-sampler. The proposed approach outperforms classical cost-sensitive methods for the problem at hand, in particular when used in conjunction with a random under-sampler, while also resulting in a threefold reduction in the training time. In order to further understand the model’s decisions, a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes (DPP) is generated and evaluated. Via the use of DPP, the underlying RF model infers that the presence of hypothetical magnetohydrodynamic activity would have prevented the RWM from concurrently going unstable, which is a counterfactual that is indeed expected by prior physics knowledge. Given that this result emerges from the data-driven RF classifier and the use of counterfactuals without hand-crafted embedding of prior physics intuition, it motivates the usage of counterfactuals to simulate real-time control by generating the β N levels that would have kept the RWM stable for a set of unstable discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

FluxRETAP: a REaction TArget Prioritization genome-scale modeling technique for selecting genetic targets

MOTIVATION: Metabolic engineering is rapidly evolving as a result of new advances in synthetic biology tools and automation platforms that enable high throughput strain construction, as well as the development of machine learning tools (ML) for biology. However, selecting genetic engineering targets that effectively guide the metabolic engineering process is still challenging. ML can provide predictive power for synthetic biology, but current technical limitations prevent the independent use of ML approaches without previous biological knowledge. RESULTS: Here, we present FluxRETAP, a simple and computationally inexpensive method that leverages the prior mechanistic knowledge embedded in genome-scale models for suggesting targets for genetic overexpression, downregulation or deletion, with the final goal of increasing the production of a desired metabolite. This method can provide a list of desirable engineering targets that can be combined with current ML pipelines. FluxRETAP captured 100% of reaction targets experimentally verified to improve Escherichia coli isoprenol production, 50% of targets that experimentally improved taxadiene production in E. coli and ∼60% of genetic targets from a verified minimal constrained cut-set in Pseudomonas putida, while providing additional high priority targets that could be tested. Overall, FluxRETAP is an efficient algorithm for identifying a prioritized list of testable genetic and reaction targets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FluxRETAP is implemented in python and released under the creative commons license. The implementation and code are freely available at: https://github.com/JBEI/FluxRETAP.

Czajka, Jeffrey J↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ig-VAE: Generative modeling of protein structure by direct 3D coordinate generation

While deep learning models have seen increasing applications in protein science, few have been implemented for protein backbone generation—an important task in structure-based problems such as active site and interface design. We present a new approach to building class-specific backbones, using a variational auto-encoder to directly generate the 3D coordinates of immunoglobulins. Our model is torsion- and distance-aware, learns a high-resolution embedding of the dataset, and generates novel, high-quality structures compatible with existing design tools. We show that the Ig-VAE can be used with Rosetta to create a computational model of a SARS-CoV2-RBD binder via latent space sampling. We further demonstrate that the model’s generative prior is a powerful tool for guiding computational protein design, motivating a new paradigm under which backbone design is solved as constrained optimization problem in the latent space of a generative model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Influence of convection on microstructure

The primary motivation for this research has been to determine the cause for space processing altering the microstructure of some eutectics, especially the MnBi-Bi eutectic. Prior experimental research at Grumman and here showed that the microstructure of MnBi-Bi eutectic is twice as fine when solidified in space or in a magnetic field, is uninfluenced by interfacial temperature gradient, adjusts very quickly to changes in freezing rate, and becomes coarser when spin-up/spin-down (accelerated crucible rotation technique) is used during solidification. Theoretical work at Clarkson predicted that buoyancy driven convection on earth could not account for the two fold change in fiber spacing caused by solidification in space. However, a lamellar structure with a planar interface was assumed, and the Soret effect was not included in the analysis. Experimental work at Clarkson showed that the interface is not planar, and that MnBi fibers project out in front of the Bi matrix on the order of one fiber diameter. Originally four primary hypotheses were to be tested under this current grant: (1) a fibrous microstructure is much more sensitive to convection than a lamellar microstructure, which was assumed in our prior theoretical treatment; (2) an interface with one phase projecting out into the melt is much more sensitive to convection than a planar interface, which was assumed in our prior theoretical treatment; (3) the Soret effect is much more important in the absence of convection and has a sufficiently large influence on microstructure that its action can explain the flight results; and (4) the microstructure is much more sensitive to convection when the composition of the bulk melt is off eutectic. As reported previously, we have learned that while a fibrous microstructure and a non-planar interface are more sensitive to convection than a lamellar microstructure with a planar interface, the influence of convection remains too small to explain the flight and magnetic field results. Similarly addition of the Soret effect does not explain the flight and magnetic field results.

Wilcox, William R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Design of Perovskite Catalytic Properties

Abstract Discovering new materials that efficiently catalyze the oxygen reduction and evolution reactions is critical for facilitating the widespread adoption of solid oxide fuel cell and electrolyzer (SOFC/SOEC) technologies. Here, machine learning (ML) models are developed to predict perovskite catalytic properties critical for SOFC/SOEC applications, including oxygen surface exchange, oxygen diffusivity, and area specific resistance (ASR). The models are based on trivial‐to‐calculate elemental features and are more accurate and dramatically faster than the best models based on ab initio‐derived features, potentially eliminating the need for ab initio calculations in descriptor‐based screening. The model of ASR enables temperature‐dependent predictions, has well calibrated uncertainty estimates and online accessibility. Use of temporal cross‐validation reveals the model to be effective at discovering new promising materials prior to their initial discovery, demonstrating the model can make meaningful predictions. Using the SHapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP) approach, detailed discussion of different approaches of model featurization is provided for ML property prediction. Finally, the model is used to screen more than 19 million perovskites to develop a list of promising cheap, earth‐abundant, stable, and high performing materials, and find some top materials contain mixtures of less‐explored elements (e.g., K, Bi, Y, Ni, Cu) worth exploring in more detail.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2011

ISS Regenerative Life Support: Challenges and Success in the Quest for Long-Term Habitability in Space

This presentation will discuss the International Space Station s (ISS) Regenerative Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) operations with discussion of the on-orbit lessons learned, specifically regarding the challenges that have been faced as the system has expanded with a growing ISS crew. Over the 10 year history of the ISS, there have been numerous challenges, failures, and triumphs in the quest to keep the crew alive and comfortable. Successful operation of the ECLSS not only requires maintenance of the hardware, but also management of the station resources in case of hardware failure or missed re-supply. This involves effective communication between the primary International Partners (NASA and Roskosmos) and the secondary partners (JAXA and ESA) in order to keep a reserve of the contingency consumables and allow for re-supply of failed hardware. The ISS ECLSS utilizes consumables storage for contingency usage as well as longer-term regenerative systems, which allow for conservation of the expensive resources brought up by re-supply vehicles. This long-term hardware, and the interactions with software, was a challenge for Systems Engineers when they were designed and require multiple operational workarounds in order to function continuously. On a day-to-day basis, the ECLSS provides big challenges to the on console controllers. Main challenges involve the utilization of the resources that have been brought up by the visiting vehicles prior to undocking, balance of contributions between the International Partners for both systems and resources, and maintaining balance between the many interdependent systems, which includes providing the resources they need when they need it. The current biggest challenge for ECLSS is the Regenerative ECLSS system, which continuously recycles urine and condensate water into drinking water and oxygen. These systems were brought to full functionality on STS-126 (ULF-2) mission. Through system failures and recovery, the ECLSS console has learned how to balance the water within the systems, store and use water for contingencies, and continue to work with the International Partners for short-term failures. Through these challenges and the system failures, the most important lesson learned has been the importance of redundancy and operational workarounds. It is only because of the flexibility of the hardware and the software that flight controllers have the opportunity to continue operating the system as a whole for mission success.

Bazley, Jesse A.↗