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At least 649 records · Page 36

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergency Diesel Generator Reliability and Installation Energy Security

The U.S. Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) fixed installations - or military bases - are a critical element of national security. Military bases support the maintenance and deployment of weapons systems, training and mobilization of combat forces, and provide direct support to combat operations. Fixed installations do not operate without energy and they rely largely on electricity to support critical missions and functions. Installations are dependent on a commercial grid that is vulnerable to disruption due to severe weather, physical attacks, and cyberattacks. This report looks at the impact on the highest priority critical loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Disruption avoidance via island suppression: the crucial roles of DIII-D and foundational research

The FESAC long range plan calls out disruption avoidance and mitigation as key remaining technical gaps. In discussing the roles of DIII-D and NSTX-U, the FESAC long range plan says “Additional research on these facilities, in combination with private and international collaborations, continuing support of existing university tokamak programs, and utilization of US expertise in theory and simulation, is needed to find solutions to remaining technical gaps. These gaps include disruption prediction, avoidance, and mitigation …”. Disruptions pose an existential threat to ITER and to FPPs. For a fusion reactor, unplanned shutdowns caused by disruptions will be a significant barrier to connecting such a reactor to the electric grid, even if disruption mitigation is successful. Disruption studies for ITER in recent years have largely focused on disruption mitigation (e.g., pellet injection), motivated by near-term deadlines for finalizing the design of the mitigation hardware. It is recognized, however, that mitigation alone will not suffice. The 2022 U.S. ITER Research Needs Workshop Report states that ”[d]isruptions are considered the largest threat to the ITER Research Program”, and that “[m]itigation should be a last resort”. As we discuss below, there are unresolved foundational issues that play a critical role in avoidance, and DIII-D is an ideal device for generating the data needed to address these issues.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simplifying Geospatial Workflows with GeoGridFusion

Growing demands to understand PV deployment and reliability across an expanding range of climates, along with increasing computational power, are driving the need for simplified computing tools that support large-scale analysis and geospatial workflows. While existing open-source libraries and PV system modeling tools offer extensive collections of empirical and physical models, they often lack the ability to scale to large geospatial datasets. The tool presented here, GeoGridFusion, enables PV modelers to store and utilize gridded geospatial data from sources such as NSRDB, PVGIS, and others. GeoGridFusion harmonizes diverse datasets, taxonomies, and nomenclatures, and includes utilities that support intuitive geospatial area selection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project: Stage I - Steady Flow Blind Predictions: Preprint

This paper presents the first blind prediction stage of the Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project being conducted and funded by the UK's EPSRC and Supergen ORE Hub. In this first stage, only steady flow conditions, at low and elevated turbulence (3.1%) levels, were considered. Prior to the blind prediction stage, a large laboratory scale experiment was conducted in which a highly instrumented 1.6m diameter tidal rotor was towed through a large towing tank in well-defined flow conditions with and without an upstream turbulence grid. Details of the test campaign and rotor design were released as part of this community blind prediction exercise. Participants were invited to use a range of engineering modelling approaches to simulate the performance and loads of the turbine. 26 submissions were received from 12 groups from across academia and industry using solution techniques ranging from blade resolved computational fluid dynamics through actuator line, boundary integral element methods, vortex methods to engineering Blade Element Momentum methods. The comparisons between experiments and blind predictions were extremely positive helping to provide validation and uncertainty estimates for the models, but also validating the experimental tests themselves. The exercise demonstrated that the experimental turbine data provides a robust data set against which researchers and design engineers can test their models and implementations to ensure robustness in their processes, helping to reduce uncertainty and provide increased confidence in engineering processes. Furthermore, the data set provides the basis by which modellers can evaluate and refine approaches.

benchmarking↗

Fault Response of Distributed Energy Resources Considering the Requirements of IEEE 1547-2018

Inverter-based DER responses to faults on the electric power system are different than those of conventional generators and are often poorly understood. Inverter fault responses are largely software-defined, within physics-based constraints. DERs are regulated by standards and grid codes that also constrain their responses. Though fault response of DERs will vary widely, for any DER following any particular standard, a pattern of fault response can be synthesized by observing that particular standard. In this paper, the recently published IEEE 1547-2018 is examined to explore the general fault response of any DER that follows IEEE 1547-2018. Additionally, an IEEE 1547-2018 compliant inverter model is developed and tested in simulation to find the fault response, and that response is compared with the fault response of a commercial off-the-shelf inverter.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

To What Extent Will Decarbonization Deepen the Conversation Between Industry and the Grid?

Decarbonization - the transition away from un-mitigated fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy - requires big changes from both power and process systems. On the power system side, those changes are expected to include large increases in variable generation, e.g., from wind and solar, which has near-zero marginal costs and at large shares can produce infrequent but consequential energy droughts. On the process systems side, industries are investigating their options for direct and indirect electrification, the latter exemplified by replacing fossil fuel inputs with zero-carbon, energy-carrying chemicals like hydrogen and ammonia produced via electrochemical processes. The economic features of these changes within the larger context of power and process systems suggest that their realization could be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how industrial facilities interact with the grid. For example, the dominant type of demand participation in power markets could change from today's focus on load reductions at peak times to a new focus on shifting electricity use, enabled in part by large-scale product storage, to take advantage of renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed and to avoid consumption during high-price energy droughts. This talk will describe these and other possible design and operational approaches from grid and industrial economic perspectives, culminating in an enumeration of open problems that lie at the interface of today and tomorrow's power and process systems.

co-design↗

MindSynchro

This report presents the developments and results of MindSynchro project as part of DOE OE FOA 1861. DOE and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have made available to FOA awardees datasets containing years of real historical data recorded from various phasor measurement units (PMUs) which are installed in three large US interconnections: Texas (IC A), Western (IC B), and Eastern (IC C). The main goal of the project, which was successfully achieved, was to develop methods for detection and identification of events which are relevant for power grid operation. Tasks performed for achieving the project goals included data exploration and pre-processing, the development and application of physics-based features, data analysis and labeling based on unsupervised learning approaches, training and testing of DSSL models for classification of events which are relevant for power grid operation, and deployment of solutions to cloud environments. The methods developed in the project can potentially provide relevant benefits to power grid asset owners/operators in general in terms of situational awareness. Two main types of outcomes can be provided by these tools: Identification of specific relevant power grid event types: Semi-supervised ML methods developed in the project can adequately employ not only the relatively scarce labeled data but also the large amount of available unlabeled data to train models for detection of specific event types. Such methods enable the application of trained models for the detection of events in a population of PMUs much larger than that associated to the labeled events. Support in data labeling / label validation: Labels are critical for training of models for identification of specific types of events. However, labeling large amounts of data is a manual and tedious process. This means that such process is error prone and is not scalable. Methods developed in the project, based on ensembles of clustering models, have been successfully employed for turning manual labeling into a scalable process. Accurate identification of specific relevant events can provide the operators with immediate situational awareness that could otherwise require hours or days of analysis from domain experts. We envision that such methods could be initially employed in support of post-mortem analysis of events and, as confidence is gained, they could be employed for online/real-time support, providing, among other benefits, insights for avoiding major events which could happen due to a combination of smaller ones. On the longer term, related methods could potentially be employed to improve protection and control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

MIRACL Co‐Simulation platform for control and operation of distributed wind in microgrid

Abstract This paper presents a co‐simulation platform (CSP) developed as a part of the “Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)” project, hereafter called MIRACL‐CSP, to allow simulation‐based testing, demonstration, and evaluations of distributed wind under various grid operating conditions. MIRACL‐CSP provides modular interactions among the power distribution system, distributed wind, and utility decision‐making framework. A hierarchical engine for large‐scale infrastructure co‐simulations (HELICS) is used as the core engine of MIRACL‐CSP to establish time and information coordination among the MIRACL‐CSP modules. In this study, MIRACL‐CSP performance is demonstrated using the IEEE 123‐node test distribution grid modelled in GridLAB‐D and the utility decision support application modelled in Python. The functionality of MIRACL‐CSP is demonstrated through various grid operational scenarios in a microgrid and networked microgrid environment. A co‐simulation study is described that demonstrated MIRACL‐CSP capabilities for the microgrid operational scenario in the IEEE 123‐node test system. MIRACL‐CSP is a generic platform that facilitates distributed wind research for different test systems, applications, and valuation of distributed wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Driving Zn-MnO2 grid-scale batteries: A roadmap to cost-effective energy storage

Highlights Zn-MnO 2 batteries promise safe, reliable energy storage, and this roadmap outlines a combination of manufacturing strategies and technical innovations that could make this goal achievable. Approaches such as improved efficiency of manufacturing and increasing active material utilization will be important to getting costs as low as $100/kWh, but key materials innovations that facilitate the full 2-electron capacity utilization of MnO 2 , the use of high energy density 3D electrodes, and the promise of a separator-free battery with greater than 2V potential offer a route to batteries at $50/kWh or less. Abstract Large-scale energy storage is certain to play a significant, enabling role in the evolution of the emerging electrical grid. Battery-based storage, while not a dominant form of storage today, has opportunity to expand its utility through safe, reliable, and cost-effective technologies. Here, secondary Zn–MnO 2 batteries are highlighted as a promising extension of ubiquitous primary alkaline batteries, offering a safe, environmentally friendly chemistry in a scalable and practical energy dense technology. Importantly, there is a very realistic pathway to also making such batteries cost-effective at price points of $50/kWh or lower. By examining manufacturing examples at the Zn–MnO 2 battery manufacturer Urban Electric Power, a roadmap has been created to realize such low-cost systems. By focusing on manufacturing optimization through reduced materials waste, scalable manufacturing, and effective materials selection, costs can be significantly reduced. Ultimately, though, coupling these approaches with emerging research and development advances to enable full capacity active materials utilization and battery voltages greater than 2V are likely needed to drive costs below a target of $50/kWh. Reaching this commercially important goal, especially with a chemistry that is safe, well-known, and reliably effective stands to inject Zn–MnO 2 batteries in the storage landscape at a critical time in energy storage development and deployment. Graphical abstract

Spoerke, Erik D. (ORCID:0000000322862560)↗

MPC solution for optimal load shifting for buildings with ON/OFF staged packaged units: Experimental demonstration, and lessons learned

Small and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCB) are significant demand response resources, and it is important to develop grid-responsive control algorithms that exploit those resources and create financial benefits for building owners and HVAC service providers. Furthermore, unlike large-sized commercial buildings, there is an opportunity to have universally applicable control solutions for many SMCBs since those buildings have a consistent HVAC system configuration: SMCBs are commonly served by multiple-staged air conditioning units controlled by their own thermostats. Despite the demand response potential and scalability, however, very few control solutions are available for SMCBs. Typical model predictive control (MPC) and heuristic control approaches for cooling load shifting that lower thermostat setpoints before an electric price jump are suitable mainly for large-sized commercial buildings where a continuous capacity modulation is possible, e.g., via dampers in variable air volume terminal units. However, those approaches can cause undesired, high peaks for SMCBs due to the nature of ON/OFF unit staging and narrow thermostat deadbands. This could discourage the use of advanced grid-responsive controls for SMCBs due to the concern of high demand charges, and has to be resolved. This paper presents a MPC solution that overcomes this challenge. It has a hierarchical MPC structure where an upper level MPC is responsible for electrical load shifting in response to an electric price signal while a lower level MPC is responsible for coordinating compressor stages to eliminate unnecessary peaks and follows the setpoints determined by the upper level MPC. In this work, two one-month, comprehensive laboratory tests have been carried out to demonstrate load shifting and cost savings for the algorithm. Interesting trade-offs between energy efficiency and load flexibility were observed and are discussed, and lessons learned for applying MPCs for SMCBs are also presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

TASTI-GRID: An Overview of West Virginia’s Grid Resilience Challenges

West Virginia’s legacy as a top power producer with a legacy of mining and natural gas is well-known across the country. A state with historic underinvestment, vulnerability to natural hazards, and a large rural population – much of West Virginia’s critical energy infrastructure is beyond its recommended lifecycle at 75+ years old. West Virginian’s are feeling the effects of neighboring Virginia’s data center growth, as its grid interconnectedness with neighboring states have impacted energy affordability as power supply has not kept up with demand. The state aims to attract data centers to improve economic development, however, the age of infrastructure, utility reliability, weather-induced major outages, and cost of proposed improvements compound West Virginia’s resilience challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling and Optimizing Pumped Storage in a Multi-stage Large Scale Electricity Market under Portfolio Evolution

To leverage the fast-ramping capability of resources to provide great value to the grid, electricity system operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) continue to evolve their approaches for integrating energy storage resources, including pumpedstorage hydro (PSH), into the electricity markets. However, new challenges arise in modeling and optimizing these energy-limited resources across multiple market clearing processes and planning studies with uncertainties and imperfect information. For instance, current market practices of PSH owners specifying pumping/generating hours can result in sub-optimal generation dispatch. Letting grid operators optimize PSH with the consideration of multiple operating modes and energy limitation constraints can potentially bring economic benefits to both the system and the PSH owners. However, in multi-stage clearing process of electricity markets, utilizing the PSH flexibility to deal with realized uncertainties can cause deviation in the multi-stage scheduling processes. The resulting financial risks from the schedule deviation may not be acceptable to PSH owners. In addition, to effectively utilize this energy limited resource, the state of charge (SOC) constraints of PSH needs to be continuously optimized and the marginal cost of deviation need to reflect the expected cost to purchase or sell energy at future times to compensate for deviations. This project aims to develop a prototype enhanced PSH model and improved price signals in the multi-stage market clearing process with proper consideration of the unique characteristics of PSH, in order to better align underlying PSH capabilities with evolving grid needs, particularly including the needs for more frequent and larger cycling to manage variability and uncertainty from renewables.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawatt-scale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Small-Signal Stability of Grid-Forming Inverters Using Current-Limiting and Frequency Stabilization

This paper presents a small-signal stability analysis of grid-forming (GFM) inverters under current-limiting conditions. It examines how adjustments in virtual impedance angles, implemented through advanced current-limiting and frequency stabilization techniques, influence small-signal stability. This paper studies a GFM inverter control integrating a fictitious power technique stabilizing primary control by adding a virtual power term and a hybrid current limiter integrating virtual impedance in the anti-wind-up feedback with current reference saturation limiting. A small-signal model is developed to assess the impact of virtual impedance angles on GFM inverter dynamics during grid disturbances, such as voltage drops. The findings indicate that although increasing the virtual impedance angle (to make it more inductive) enhances large-signal stability and voltage support during faults, it can induce oscillations and lead to instability if the angle exceeds certain thresholds. Based on the small-signal models, this paper provides design considerations for the current-limiter impedances to ensure reliable GFM inverter behavior under grid disturbances while maintaining small-signal stability.

current limiting↗

The Role of Multiscale Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis and Its Predictability in Near-Global Aquaplanet Cloud-Resolving Simulations

Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is a multiscale process that involves interactions between large-scale circulation and small-scale convection. A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with 4-km horizontal grid spacing that produces tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to investigate TCG and its predictability. This study analyzes an ensemble of three 20-day NGAqua simulations, with initial white-noise perturbations of low-level humidity. TCs develop spontaneously from the northern edge of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where large-scale flows and tropical convection provide necessary conditions for barotropic instability. Zonal bands of positive low-level absolute vorticity organize into cyclonic vortices, some of which develop into TCs. A new algorithm is developed to track the cyclonic vortices. A vortex-following framework analysis of the low-level vorticity budget shows that vertical stretching of absolute vorticity due to convective heating contributes positively to the vorticity spinup of the TCs. A case study and composite analyses suggest that sufficient humidity is key for convective development. TCG in these three NGAqua simulations undergoes the same series of interactions. The locations of cyclonic vortices are broadly predetermined by planetary-scale circulation and humidity patterns associated with ITCZ breakdown, which are predictable up to 10 days. Whether and when the cyclonic vortices become TCs depend on the somewhat more random feedback between convection and vorticity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗