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DOE OSTI2021

Stepwise Dynamic Calibration of a Hydromechanical Simulation Using Time-Lapse Vertical Seismic Profile

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is the 13-10A injector well within the ongoing CO2-EOR operation of the Farnsworth Field Unit. The Time-lapse VSP dataset carries the combined effects of fluid substitution and mean effective stress changes, thereby providing a dataset amenable for the calibration of production and injection-induced stress changes. The concept is similar to calibrating a reservoir simulation model in that the process honor real field data to set up an inverse problem. The solution optimizes the independent and impactful geomechanical parameters that replicate the observed time-lapse seismic velocity changes. This stress calibration is enabled by 4D geomechanical modeling and the VSP Integration workflow. This calibration benefits from extensive geological, geophysical and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the 13-10A subject well. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model. The Biot Gassmann workflow combines rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the fluid substitution contribution to seismic velocity change. Additionally, modeled seismic velocity attributed to mean effective stress are determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from the ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements on the extracted Morrow B core. A penalty function is then formed between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. Four independent and impactful geomechanical parameters have been determined. These are the bulk modulus and shear modulus for zero porosity and the shear and compressional seismic velocity to mean effective stress derivatives. The dataset of numerous coupled hydromechanical- geomechanical simulation realizations is built by combining variations of the four stated geomechanical parameters. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer are used to converge on the optimal geomechanical parameters. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evidence of Inverse Hall-Petch Behavior and Low Friction and Wear in High Entropy Alloys

We present evidence of inverse Hall-Petch behavior for a single-phase high entropy alloy (CoCrFeMnNi) in ultra-high vacuum and show that it is associated with low friction coefficients (~0.3). Grain size measurements by STEM validate a recently proposed dynamic amorphization model that accurately predicts grain size-dependent shear strength in the inverse Hall-Petch regime. Wear rates in the initially soft (coarse grained) material were shown to be remarkably low (~10 –6 mm 3 /N-m), the lowest for any HEA tested in an inert environment where oxidation and the formation of mixed metal-oxide films is mitigated. The combined high wear resistance and low friction are linked to the formation of an ultra-nanocrystalline near-surface layer. The dynamic amorphization model was also used to predict an average high angle grain boundary energy (0.87 J/m 2 ). This value was used to explain cavitation-induced nanoporosity found in the highly deformed surface layer, a phenomenon that has been linked to superplasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Production of neutron-rich isotopes for 𝑍 ≥ 98 in the 238 U + 248 Cm reaction

Multinucleon transfer (MNT) reactions in actinide systems are a promising method to synthesize transuranium neutron-rich elements. Appropriate theoretical approaches are needed to understand the mechanisms behind MNT. We employ a microscopic approach to calculate neutron-rich isotope production in the reaction 238 U + 248 Cm system. Here, the stochastic mean-field (SMF) approach is used to calculate the primary cross sections in MNT reactions based on the quasifission and inverse quasifission processes, and a statistical de-excitation model with GEMINI ++ code to calculate the secondary fragment cross sections. The calculated cross sections using SMF and GEMINI ++ explain available experimental results for the 238 U + 248 Cm system at 𝐸 c.m. = 898.7 MeV energy. This shows the effectiveness and applicability of the quantal diffusion approach, based on the SMF theory, in heavy-ion collisions. Production of transuranium neutron-rich elements with a proton number up to 𝑍=101 is obtained with sizable cross sections. Theoretical results calculated for the 𝑍=102–105 region, for which there are no experimental data, show that the cross-section values would be lower than the microbarn level. SMF theory does not contain any adjustable parameters other than the standard parameters of the energy density functional used in the TDHF theory and is an important approach for the microscopic understanding of reaction mechanisms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Latent diffusion can map beam loss to two-dimensional phase-space projections

Beam loss monitors (BLMs) and beam current monitors (BCMs) are ubiquitous at particle accelerators around the world. These simple devices provide noninvasive high-level beam measurements but give no insight into the detailed 6D (𝑥,𝑦,𝑧,𝑝 𝑥 ,𝑝 𝑦 ,𝑝 𝑧 ) beam phase-space distributions or dynamics. We show that generative conditional latent diffusion models can learn intricate patterns to solve the extreme inverse problem of mapping waveforms of tens of BLMs or BCMs along an accelerator to detailed 2D projections of a charged particle beam’s 6D phase-space density. This transformational method can be used at any particle accelerator to transform simple noninvasive devices into detailed beam phase-space diagnostics. We demonstrate this concept via multiparticle simulations of the high-intensity beam in the kilometer-long Los Alamos Neutron Science Center linear proton accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Imaging the crust and uppermost mantle structure of Portugal (West Iberia) with seismic ambient noise

SUMMARY We present a new high-resolution 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath Portugal, inferred from ambient seismic noise tomography. We use broad-band seismic data from a dense temporary deployment covering the entire Portuguese mainland between 2010 and 2012 in the scope of the WILAS project. Vertical component data are processed using phase correlation and phase weighted stack to obtain empirical Green functions (EGFs) for 2016 station pairs. Further, we use a random sampling and subset stacking strategy to measure robust Rayleigh-wave group velocities in the period range 7–30 s and associated uncertainties. The tomographic inversion is performed in two steps: First, we determine group-velocity lateral variations for each period. Next, we invert them at each grid point using a new trans-dimensional inversion scheme to obtain the 3-D shear wave velocity model. The final 3-D model extends from the upper crust (5 km) down to the uppermost mantle (60 km) and has a lateral resolution of ∼50 km. In the upper and middle crusts, the Vs anomaly pattern matches the tectonic units of the Variscan Massif and Alpine basins. The transition between the Lusitanian Basin and the Ossa Morena Zone is marked by a contrast between moderate- and high-velocity anomalies, in addition to two arched earthquake lineations. Some faults, namely, the Manteigas–Vilariça–Bragança fault and the Porto–Tomar–Ferreira do Alentejo fault, have a clear signature from the upper crust down to the uppermost mantle (60 km). Our 3-D shear wave velocity model offers new insights into the continuation of the main tectonic units at depth and contributes to better understanding the seismicity of Portugal.

Silveira, Graça (ORCID:0000000221102554)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the impact of temporal analysis of products reactor initial state uncertainties on kinetic parameters

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor, a transient kinetic tool, provides users with information as the catalyst state evolves. However, the state of the art for TAP uncertainty quantification only considers the experimental noise present in the outlet flow signal. Additional sources of uncertainty, including, but not limited to, initial surface coverages, the catalyst zone location, the inert void fraction, and the gas pulse intensity and pulse delay, are not included. For this reason, a framework for quantifying all uncertainty sources present in TAP experiments is presented and applied to a carbon monoxide oxidation case study. Herein, two methods for quantifying these sources of uncertainty are introduced. The first utilizes initial state sensitivities to approximate the parameter variances, as well as to provide insights into the structural certainty of the model. The second generates parameter confidence distributions through an ensemble-based sampling algorithm. This initial state covariance matrix can ultimately be merged with the experimental noise covariance matrix, providing a unified description of the parameter uncertainties for a single TAP experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for low-energy neutrinos from astrophysical sources with Borexino

We report on searches for neutrinos and antineutrinos from astrophysical sources performed with the Borexino detector at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy. Electron antineutrinos ( $\bar{ν}_e$ ) are detected in an organic liquid scintillator through the inverse β -decay reaction. In the present work we set model-independent upper limits in the energy range 1.8-16.8 MeV on neutrino fluxes from unknown sources that improve our previous results, on average, by a factor 2.5. Using the same data set, we first obtain experimental constraints on the diffuse supernova $\bar{ν}_e$ fluxes in the previously unexplored region below 8 MeV. A search for $\bar{ν}_e$ in the solar neutrino flux is also presented: the presence of $\bar{ν}_e$ would be a manifestation of a non-zero anomalous magnetic moment of the neutrino, making possible its conversion to antineutrinos in the strong magnetic field of the Sun. We obtain a limit for a solar $\bar{ν}_e$ flux of 384 cm -2 s -1 (90% C.L.), assuming an undistorted solar 8 B neutrinos energy spectrum, that corresponds to a transition probability pνe→$\bar{ν}_e$< 7.2 ×10-5 (90% C.L.) for E $\bar{ν}_e$ > 1.8 MeV.At lower energies, by investigating the spectral shape of elastic scattering events, we obtain a new limit on solar 7 Be- ν e conversion into $\bar{ν}_e$ of pνe→$\bar{ν}_e$< 0.14 (90% C.L.) at 0.862 MeV. Last, we investigate solar flares as possible neutrino sources and obtain the strongest up-to-date limits on the fluence of neutrinos of all flavor neutrino below 3–7 MeV. Assuming the neutrino flux to be proportional to the flare’s intensity, we exclude an intense solar flare as the cause of the observed excess of events in run 117 of the Cl-Ar Homestake experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microsecond Isomer at the N = 20 Island of Shape Inversion Observed at FRIB

Excited-state spectroscopy from the first experiment at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) is reported. A 24(2)-μs isomer was observed with the FRIB Decay Station initiator (FDSi) through a cascade of 224- and 401-keV γ rays in coincidence with 32 Na nuclei. This is the only known microsecond isomer (1 μs ≤T 1/2 <1 ms) in the region. This nucleus is at the heart of the N=20 island of shape inversion and is at the crossroads of the spherical shell-model, deformed shell-model, and ab initio theories. It can be represented as the coupling of a proton hole and neutron particle to 32 Mg, 32 Mg+π -1 +ν +1 . This odd-odd coupling and isomer formation provides a sensitive measure of the underlying shape degrees of freedom of 32 Mg, where the onset of spherical-to-deformed shape inversion begins with a low-lying deformed 2 + state at 885 keV and a low-lying shape-coexisting 0$^+_2$ state at 1058 keV. Here, we suggest two possible explanations for the 625-keV isomer in 32 Na: a 6 - spherical shape isomer that decays by E2 or a 0 + deformed spin isomer that decays by M2. The present results and calculations are most consistent with the latter, indicating that the low-lying states are dominated by deformation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving Data and Prediction Quality of High-Throughput Perovskite Synthesis with Model Fusion

Combinatorial fusion analysis (CFA) is an approach for combining multiple scoring systems using the rank-score characteristic function and cognitive diversity measure. One example is to combine diverse machine learning models to achieve better prediction quality. In this work, we apply CFA to the synthesis of metal halide perovskites containing organic ammonium cations via inverse temperature crystallization. Using a data set generated by high-throughput experimentation, four individual models (support vector machines, random forests, weighted logistic classifier, and gradient boosted trees) were developed. We characterize each of these scoring systems and explore 66 possible combinations of the models. When measured by the precision on predicting crystal formation, the majority of the combination models improves the individual model results. The best combination models outperform the best individual models by 3.9 percentage points in precision. In addition to improving prediction quality, we demonstrate how the fusion models can be used to identify mislabeled input data and address issues of data quality. In particular, we identify example cases where all single models and all fusion models do not give the correct prediction. Experimental replication of these syntheses reveals that these compositions are sensitive to modest temperature variations across the different locations of the heating element that can hinder or enhance the crystallization process. In summary, we demonstrate that model fusion using CFA can not only identify a previously unconsidered influence on reaction outcome but also be used as a form of quality control for high-throughput experimentation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Code for Calculating Regional Seismic Travel Time

The RSTT software computes predictions of the travel time of seismic energy traveling from a source to a receiver through 2.5D models of the seismic velocity distribution within the Earth. The two primary applications for the RSTT library are tomographic inversion studies and seismic event location calculations. In tomographic inversions studies, a seismologist begins with number of source-receiver travel time observations and an initial starting model of the velocity distribution within the Earth. A forward travel time calculator, such as the RSTT library, is used to compute predictions of each observed travel time and all of the residuals (observed minus predicted travel time) are calculated. The Earth model is then modified in some systematic way with the goal of minimizing the residuals. The Earth model obtained in this way is assumed to be a better model than the starting model if it has lower residuals. The other major application for the RSTT library is seismic event location. Given an Earth model, an initial estimate of the location of a seismic event, and some number of observations of seismic travel time thought to have originated from that event, location codes systematically modify the estimate of the location of the event with the goal of minimizing the difference between the observed and predicted travel times. The second application, seismic event location, is routinely implemented by the military as part of its effort to monitor the Earth for nuclear tests conducted by foreign countries.

BALLARD, SANFORD↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Seismic Travel Time v.3.2.0

BALLARD, SANFORD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-lived biνo at the LHC

We examine the detection prospects for a long-lived bi ν o, a pseudo-Dirac bino which is responsible for neutrino masses, at the LHC and at dedicated long-lived particle detectors. The bi ν o arises in U(1) R -symmetric supersymmetric models where the neutrino masses are generated through higher dimensional operators in an inverse seesaw mechanism. At the LHC the bi ν o is produced through squark decays and it subsequently decays to quarks, charged leptons and missing energy via its mixing with the Standard Model neutrinos. We consider long-lived bi ν os which escape the ATLAS or CMS detectors as missing energy and decay to charged leptons inside the proposed long-lived particle detectors FASER, CODEX-b, and MATHUSLA. We find the currently allowed region in the squark-bi ν o mass parameter space by recasting most recent LHC searches for jets+. We also determine the reach of MATHUSLA, CODEX-b and FASER. We find that a large region of parameter space involving squark masses, bi ν o mass and the messenger scale can be probed with MATHUSLA, ranging from bi ν o masses of 10 GeV-2 TeV and messenger scales 10 2 - 11 TeV for a range of squark masses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗

DOE OSTI2021

Very-high-energy Emission from Pulsars

Abstract Air-Cherenkov telescopes have detected pulsations at energies above 50 GeV from a growing number of Fermi pulsars. These include the Crab, Vela, PSR B1706−44, and Geminga, with the first two having pulsed detections above 1 TeV. In some cases, there appears to be very-high-energy (VHE) emission that is an extension of the Fermi spectra to high energies, while in other cases, additional higher-energy spectral components that require a separate emission mechanism may be present. We present results of broadband spectral modeling using global magnetospheric fields and multiple emission mechanisms that include synchro-curvature (SC) and inverse Compton scattered (ICS) radiation from accelerated particles (primaries) and synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from lower-energy pairs. Our models predict three distinct VHE components: SC from primaries whose high-energy tail can extend to 100 GeV, SSC from pairs that can extend to several TeV, and ICS from primary particles accelerated in the current sheet that scatter pair synchrotron radiation, which appears beyond 10 TeV. Our models suggest that H.E.S.S.-II and MAGIC have detected the high-energy tail of the primary SC component that produces the Fermi spectrum in Vela, Geminga, and PSR B1706−44. We argue that the ICS component peaking above 10 TeV from Vela has been seen by H.E.S.S. Detection of this emission component from the Crab and other pulsars is possible with the High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory and Cherenkov Telescope Array, and will directly measure the maximum particle energy in pulsars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Inverse design of hypoeutectoid pearlite steel microstructures using a deep learning and genetic algorithm optimization framework

Goal-oriented microstructure design in metallic materials is a challenging task due to complex structure-property relationships. Traditional experimental and computational approaches are time-intensive and economically inefficient, limiting their applicability for large-scale design space exploration. Here, in this work, we propose an end-to-end framework that integrates deep learning models with genetic optimization to design microstructures with targeted mechanical properties. Deep learning models enable accurate forward design, while their integration with genetic optimization enables efficient inverse design within a few hours, compared to days or weeks using conventional finite element simulations. The framework combines experimental characterization and finite element modeling to analyze the influence of microstructural features on the mechanical behavior of hypoeutectoid steels. Data from both experiments and simulations are used to train the deep learning models. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we apply the framework to 0.63% carbon steel with proeutectoid ferrite and pearlite phases, commonly used in industrial applications. In this study, 2D microstructures were used for modeling, selected primarily for computational efficiency and to establish proof of concept. The framework successfully optimizes microstructures for targeted yield strength, ultimate strength, and stress concentration factors while significantly reducing computational time. Beyond hypoeutectoid steels, this scalable framework can be extended to other material systems and integrated with additive manufacturing, offering an efficient approach for accelerating microstructure design for specific engineering applications.

ConvLSTM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis for Ill-Posed Inverse Problems

Inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a critical role in model development and calibration. In many applications, there are multiple uncertain parameters in a model that must be estimated. However, high dimensionality of the parameters and computational complexity of the PDE solves make such problems challenging. A common approach is to reduce the dimension by fixing some parameters (which we will call auxiliary parameters) to a best estimate and use techniques from PDE-constrained optimization to estimate the other parameters. In this article, hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA) is used to assess the sensitivity of the solution of the PDE-constrained optimization problem to changes in the auxiliary parameters. Foundational assumptions for HDSA require satisfaction of the optimality conditions which are not always practically feasible as a result of ill-posedness in the inverse problem. Here we introduce novel theoretical and computational approaches to justify and enable HDSA for ill-posed inverse problems by projecting the sensitivities on likelihood informed subspaces and defining a posteriori updates. Our proposed framework is demonstrated on a nonlinear multiphysics inverse problem motivated by estimation of spatially heterogeneous material properties in the presence of spatially distributed parametric modeling uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗