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DOE OSTI2020

Slip Tendency Analysis of Fracture Networks to Determine Suitability of Candidate Testbeds for the EGS Collab Hydroshear Experiment

Experiment 2 of the EGS Collab project is aimed at testing stimulation by hydro-shearing of existing natural fractures, versus Experiment 1, which is focused on hydraulic fracturing a rock mass to enhance permeability. The main criterion for the testbed selection in Experiment 2 is the presence of an interconnected network of fractures, at least 10 meters in extent, and with orientations such that shear slip can be induced at injection pressures less than the minimum horizontal stress (Shmin). The feasibility analysis for this experiment requires a well-constrained stress state along with well-characterized fracture networks. The fracture systems at two candidate locations in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), the 4850 Level (number refers to depth below ground surface in feet) and the 4100 Level, have been characterized to different extents. The 4850 Level has a well-characterized Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) from borehole (drilled for an experimental test bed) and drift observations. In contrast, the 4100 level has a fracture network characterized only by observations from the drift wall, which provides little constraint on fracture extents. This paper will present assessments for the interpreted slip potential for the natural fractures at the two locations. Data uncertainties are addressed by performing a probabilistic analysis that takes into account the uncertainty in the stress state, uncertainty in the fracture properties, and preliminary borehole locations. There is strong evidence of shear stimulation of some natural fractures in Experiment 1 on the 4850 level. We use examples of natural fractures strongly linked to shear stimulation in Experiment 1 from multiple monitoring indicators to test the consistency of the stress model and guide the uncertainty interpretation. This analysis is intended to guide the site selection process for Experiment 2 by highlighting the fracture orientations that are likely to be shear-stimulated in a majority of modeled realizations.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for $t\bar{t}H/A$ → $t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ production in the multilepton final state in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new heavy scalar or pseudo-scalar Higgs boson ($H/A$) produced in association with a pair of top quarks, with the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of top quarks ($H/A$ → $t\bar{t}$) is reported. The search targets a final state with exactly two leptons with same-sign electric charges or at least three leptons. The analysed dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 of proton–proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Two multivariate classifiers are used to separate the signal from the background. No significant excess of events over the Standard Model expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in the context of a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model. The observed (expected) upper limits at 95% confidence level on the $t\bar{t}$$H/A$ production cross-section times the branching ratio of $H/A$ → $t\bar{t}$ range between 14 (10) fb and 6 (5) fb for a heavy Higgs boson with mass between 400 GeV and 1000 GeV, respectively. Assuming that only one particle, either the scalar $H$ or the pseudo-scalar $A$, contributes to the $t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ final state, values of tan $β$ below 1.2 or 0.5 are excluded for a mass of 400 GeV or 1000 GeV, respectively. These exclusion ranges increase to tan $β$ below 1.6 or 0.6 when both particles are considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a τ lepton pair in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for dark matter particles produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying into a pair of τ leptons is performed using data collected in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector. The analysis is based on a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 collected in 2017–2018. No significant excess over the expected standard model background is observed. This result is interpreted within the frameworks of the 2HDM+a and baryonic Z′ benchmark simplified models. The 2HDM+a model is a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model featuring a heavy pseudoscalar with an additional light pseudoscalar. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the product of the production cross section and the branching fraction for each of these two simplified models. Heavy pseudoscalar boson masses between 400 and 700 GeV are excluded for a light pseudoscalar mass of 100 GeV. For the baryonic Z′ model, a statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data set of 36 fb −1 collected in 2016. In this model, Z′ boson masses up to 1050 GeV are excluded for a dark matter particle mass of 1 GeV.

Dark Matter↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Methods for Modeling Functional Transition Metal Compounds in Complex Environments: Ground States, Excited States, and Spectroscopies

Rapid advances in energy applications require new theory and computational models to provide guidance for interpretation of experimental results and mechanistic understanding. New theory development is necessary to treat systems of increasing complexity, size, and relevance to real applications. Functional transition metal compounds, including molecules, clusters, nanoparticles, surfaces, and solids, provide particular promise for magnetic, optical, and catalytic applications. However, such systems can be exceptionally challenging to model. To make progress in understanding and designing transition metal compounds for energy applications, theory must be able to simulate such systems in complex environments, as well as simulate the spectra of such complex systems to provide direct connections with experiment. Leveraging the independent expertise of the team’s members, this project aimed to make inroads to the theoretical and computational challenges associated with studying transition metal compounds, their reaction chemistry, photophysics and photochemistry, and response to spectroscopic interrogation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Parallel Kinetic Model for Surface and Bulk Charge Storage in ε -MnO 2 Pseudocapacitors

Pseudocapacitive materials such as manganese dioxide (MnO 2 ) are attractive for energy storage applications due to their ability to combine the fast kinetics of capacitors with the higher energy density of battery-type systems. However, the electrochemical behavior of MnO 2 remains difficult to interpret mechanistically, in part because existing models often fail to distinguish between surface-based redox processes and bulk intercalation mechanisms. In this work, we develop a physics-based model that represents MnO 2 pseudocapacitance as a linear combination of two independent, parallel electrochemical processes: (i) the surface or near-surface redox storage and (ii) lithium ion intercalation into the bulk material. These two processes are treated with distinct kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and are assumed to proceed independently. The total measured current is assumed to be the sum of these two partial currents. We validate the model using rate-dependent cyclic voltammetry experiments, demonstrating that it captures key trends and provides physically interpretable parameters reflecting the relative contributions of surface and bulk processes. By enabling a clear separation between these mechanisms, the model offers a useful framework for analyzing pseudocapacitive materials and can guide the rational design of high-performance energy storage electrodes.

Energy - Storage↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Accuracy Indicators of Androgen Suppression Therapy Failure for Prostate Cancer—A Modeling Study

Prostate cancer is a serious public health concern in the United States. The primary obstacle to effective long-term management for prostate cancer patients is the eventual development of treatment resistance. Due to the uniquely chaotic nature of the neoplastic genome, it is difficult to determine the evolution of tumor composition over the course of treatment. Hence, a drug is often applied continuously past the point of effectiveness, thereby losing any potential treatment combination with that drug permanently to resistance. If a clinician is aware of the timing of resistance to a particular drug, then they may have a crucial opportunity to adjust the treatment to retain the drug’s usefulness in a potential treatment combination or strategy. In this study, we investigate new methods of predicting treatment failure due to treatment resistance using a novel mechanistic model built on an evolutionary interpretation of Droop cell quota theory. We analyze our proposed methods using patient PSA and androgen data from a clinical trial of intermittent treatment with androgen deprivation therapy. Our results produce two indicators of treatment failure. The first indicator, proposed from the evolutionary nature of the cancer population, is calculated using our mathematical model with a predictive accuracy of 87.3% (sensitivity: 96.1%, specificity: 65%). The second indicator, conjectured from the implication of the first indicator, is calculated directly from serum androgen and PSA data with a predictive accuracy of 88.7% (sensitivity: 90.2%, specificity: 85%). Our results demonstrate the potential and feasibility of using an evolutionary tumor dynamics model in combination with the appropriate data to aid in the adaptive management of prostate cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Superior CO 2 /N 2 separation performance of highly branched Poly(1,3 dioxolane) plasticized by polyethylene glycol

With its high content of CO 2 -philic ether oxygen groups, poly(1,3-dioxolane) (PDXLA) has emerged as an attractive platform to achieve excellent CO 2 /N 2 separation properties for post-combustion carbon capture. Herein we demonstrate that the separation properties of PDXLA can be further enhanced by plasticizing with miscible polyethylene glycol (PEG)-based additives using an integrated experimentation and modeling approach. The effects of the chain end groups and loading level of the additives on the physical properties of the blends are thoroughly investigated, including glass transition temperature (T g ), fractional free volume, and gas transport properties, and the effects can be satisfactorily described using models available for homogeneous blends. Notably, a T g -integrated free volume model is adapted to successfully interpret the unified effect of the blend composition and temperature on gas diffusivity and permeability. A sample containing 45 mass% PEG dimethyl ether (PEGDME with a molecular mass of 240 g/mol) displays stable mixed-gas CO 2 permeability of 1540 Barrer and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity of 40 when challenged with a model flue gas at 60 °C, outperforming Robeson's 2008 upper bound. Elucidating how small plasticizers impact gas transport in homogeneous blends may unravel a facile way to design high-performance membranes for gas separations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for light pseudoscalar boson pairs produced from Higgs boson decays using the 4τ and 2μ2τ final states in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for a pair of light pseudoscalar bosons (a 1 ) produced in the decay of the 125 GeV Higgs boson is presented. The analysis examines decay modes where one a 1 decays into a pair of tau leptons and the other decays into either another pair of tau leptons or a pair of muons. The a1 boson mass probed in this study ranges from 4 to 15 GeV. The data sample was recorded by the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . No excess above standard model (SM) expectations is observed. The study combines the 4τ and 2μ2τ channels to set upper limits at 95% confidence level (CL) on the product of the Higgs boson production cross section and the branching fraction to the 4τ final state, relative to the Higgs boson production cross section predicted by the SM. In this interpretation, the a 1 boson is assumed to have Yukawa-like couplings to fermions, with coupling strengths proportional to the respective fermion masses. The observed (expected) upper limits range between 0.007 (0.011) and 0.079 (0.066) across the mass range considered. The results are also interpreted in the context of models with two Higgs doublets and an additional complex singlet field (2HD+S). The tightest constraints are obtained for the Type III 2HD+S model. In this case, assuming the Higgs boson production cross section equals the SM prediction, values of the branching ratio for the Higgs boson decay into a pair of a1 bosons exceeding 16% are excluded at 95% CL for a1 boson masses between 5 and 15 GeV and tan β > 2, with the exception of scenarios in which the a1 boson mixes with charm or bottom quark-antiquark bound states.

Higgs physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data from: Arctic ice-ocean interactions in an 8-to-2 kilometer resolution global model

This data collection represents all UH8to2 model data used for the publication "Arctic ice-ocean interactions in an 8-to-2 kilometer resolution global model." This includes ocean and sea ice characteristics from the 2017-2020 UH8to2 model run. Further details about the model setup, forcing, and our interpretation of these data can be found in the publication.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Actinide signatures in low electron fraction kilonova ejecta

ABSTRACT Neutron star (NS) mergers are known to produce heavy elements through rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis. Actinides are expected to be created solely by the r-process in the most neutron-rich environments. Confirming if NS mergers provide the requisite conditions for actinide creation is therefore central to determining their origin in the Universe. Actinide signatures in kilonova (KN) spectra may yield an answer, provided adequate models are available in order to interpret observational data. In this study, we investigate actinide signatures in neutron-rich merger ejecta. We use three ejecta models with different compositions and radioactive power, generated by nucleosynthesis calculations using the same initial electron fraction ($Y_e = 0.15$) but with different nuclear physics inputs and thermodynamic expansion history. These are evolved from 10 to 100 d after merger using the sumo non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) radiative transfer code. We highlight how uncertainties in nuclear properties, as well as choices in thermodynamic trajectory, may yield entirely different outputs for equal values of $Y_e$. We consider an actinide-free model and two actinide-rich models, and find that the emergent spectra and light-curve evolution are significantly different depending on the amount of actinides present, and the overall decay properties of the models. We also present potential key actinide spectral signatures, of which doubly ionized $_{89}$Ac and $_{90}$Th may be particularly interesting as spectral indicators of actinide presence in KN ejecta.

Pognan, Quentin (ORCID:0000000152550782)↗

DOE OSTI2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification (A ∼ 900) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary-lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio of q ∼ 2 × 10{sup −3} improves the fits by Δχ {sup 2} = 181.8, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with Δχ {sup 2} = 16.0 and 13.5 for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of M{sub host}=0.31{sub −0.17}{sup +0.37} M{sub ⊙} and that the planetary system is located at a distance of D{sub L}=7.04{sub −1.33}{sup +1.10} kpc toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is M{sub p}=0.64{sub −0.35}{sup +0.76} M{sub J}. The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by follow-up observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive follow-up observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmic Overture Echoed in a Stellar Final Act: Implications of Nanohertz Gravitational Waves for Core Collapse Supernova Neutrinos

The growing evidence for nanohertz gravitational waves, from NANOGrav and other observations, may be pointing to a cosmological first-order phase transition at temperatures of 𝒪⁢(10−100)⁢MeV. Such an interpretation requires beyond the Standard Model dynamics in this energy range. If so, it may well be the case that galactic core-collapse supernova explosions would produce the key components related to the first-order phase transition, leaving detectable imprints on the spectrum of neutrinos emitted in the initial few seconds of the collapse. This might provide further evidence in support of the early universe interpretation of the nanohertz gravitational wave signal. The scenario proposed here is also suggestive of a low-mass seesaw mechanism to explain neutrino masses. We outline the prospects for future observations of Galactic supernovae to uncover the signals of this scenario, with further confirmation from future pulsar timing array measurements of primordial nanohertz gravitational waves.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric fields imbue enzyme reactivity by aligning active site fragment orbitals

It is broadly recognized that intramolecular electric fields, produced by the protein scaffold and acting on the active site, facilitate enzymatic catalysis. This field effect can be described by several theoretical models, each of which is intuitive to varying degrees. In this contribution, we show that a fundamental effect of electric fields is to generate electrostatic potentials that facilitate the energetic alignment of reactant frontier orbitals. We apply this model to demystify the impact of electric fields on high-valent iron–oxo heme proteins: catalases, peroxidases, and peroxygenases/monooxygenases. Specifically, we show that this model easily accounts for the observed field-induced changes to the spin distribution within peroxidase active sites and explains the transition between epoxidation and hydroxylation pathways seen in Cytochrome P450 active site models. Thus, for the intuitive interpretation of the chemical effect of the field, the strategy involves analyzing the response of the orbitals of active site fragments, and their energetic alignment. We note that the energy difference between fragment orbitals involved in charge redistribution acts as a measure for the chemical hardness/softness of the reactive complex. This measure, and its sensitivity to electric fields, offers a single parameter model from which to quantitatively assess the effects of electric fields on reactivity and selectivity. Thus, the model provides an additional perspective to describe electrostatic preorganization and offers ways for its manipulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Sylvester Graphical Lasso (SyGlasso)

This paper introduces the Sylvester graphical lasso (SyGlasso) that captures multiway dependencies present in tensor-valued data. The model is based on the Sylvester equation that defines a generative model. The proposed model complements the tensor graphical lasso that imposes a Kronecker sum model for the inverse covariance matrix by providing an alternative Kronecker sum model that is generative and interpretable. A nodewise regression approach is adopted for estimating the conditional independence relationships among variables. The statistical convergence of the method is established, and empirical studies are provided to demonstrate the recovery of meaningful conditional dependency graphs. Here we apply the SyGlasso to an electroencephalography (EEG) study to compare the brain connectivity of alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects. Here, we demonstrate that our model can simultaneously estimate both the brain connectivity and its temporal dependencies.

Wang, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recent Progress in the Electroweak Structure of Light Nuclei Using Quantum Monte Carlo Methods

Nuclei will play a prominent role in searches for physics beyond the Standard Model as the active material in experiments. In order to reliably interpret new physics signals, one needs an accurate model of the underlying nuclear dynamics. In this review, we discuss recent progress made with quantum Monte Carlo approaches for calculating the electroweak structure of light nuclei. We place particular emphasis on recent β decay, muon capture, neutrinoless double β decay, and electron scattering results.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Materials characterization: Can artificial intelligence be used to address reproducibility challenges?

Material characterization techniques are widely used to characterize the physical and chemical properties of materials at the nanoscale and, thus, play central roles in material scientific discoveries. However, the large and complex datasets generated by these techniques often require significant human effort to interpret and extract meaningful physicochemical insights. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as machine learning (ML) have the potential to improve the efficiency and accuracy of surface analysis by automating data analysis and interpretation. In this perspective paper, we review the current role of AI in surface analysis and discuss its future potential to accelerate discoveries in surface science, materials science, and interface science. We highlight several applications where AI has already been used to analyze surface analysis data, including the identification of crystal structures from XRD data, analysis of XPS spectra for surface composition, and the interpretation of TEM and SEM images for particle morphology and size. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with the integration of AI into surface analysis workflows. These include the need for large and diverse datasets for training ML models, the importance of feature selection and representation, and the potential for ML to enable new insights and discoveries by identifying patterns and relationships in complex datasets. Most importantly, AI analyzed data must not just find the best mathematical description of the data, but it must find the most physical and chemically meaningful results. In addition, the need for reproducibility in scientific research has become increasingly important in recent years. The advancement of AI, including both conventional and the increasing popular deep learning, is showing promise in addressing those challenges by enabling the execution and verification of scientific progress. By training models on large experimental datasets and providing automated analysis and data interpretation, AI can help to ensure that scientific results are reproducible and reliable. Although integration of knowledge and AI models must be considered for the transparency and interpretability of models, the incorporation of AI into the data collection and processing workflow will significantly enhance the efficiency and accuracy of various surface analysis techniques and deepen our understanding at an accelerated pace.

Materials Science↗