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DOE OSTI2026

Data From: "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater," published in Nature Geoscience, 2026. This study seeks to answer how various ages of groundwater interact with mountainous streamflow in mountainous headwaters such as the East River. It includes various model-data processing scripts, primarily for ParFlow-CLM analysis of simulated water years 2015-2021, and two numerical warming experiments (+2.5 and +4.0 degrees C), including run scripts, forcing scripts, and post-processing, as well as comparison to observation datasets, detailed below. This data requires the use of R (.r, .rmd), Python (.py), Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab (.ipynb), ParFLOW-CLM, EcoSLIM. Further information on the use of all file formats mentioned below (e.g. .tff. .nc) are provided within the associated scripts and directory where the files are located. Contents & Usage ASO/: Contains the bash and python scripts used to convert airborne snow observatory (ASO) data (ASO, 2023) in various data formats (georeferenced tiff file, NetCDF, UTM, and to latitude/longitude) then regrided to the ParFlow equivalent grid. Output data are in regrid_regll_data.zip and subsequently visualized and analyzed in plot_and_compare.py for Supplementary Figures A14 and A15. The wksht_ASO_comparison.xlsx spreadsheet is used to calculate the data for Supplementary Figure A16. EcoSLIM/: Contains the scripts and input files to run the EcoSLIM particle tracking simulations (/run_scripts) and the post-processing python script (/plot_scripts/eco_agedist_plots.ipynb). Jasechko et al./: Contains the jupyter notebook (Extract_Elevation.ipynb) to determine the outlet elevations of the 260 watersheds used in Jasechko et al. (2016), and the corresponding table, Table_S1_Watersheds_alt.csv. Used to create Supplementary Information Figure A2. PLM_Wells/: Contains the QA/QC-ed groundwater level time series of the PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells from Faybishenko et al. (2023), reformatted to water years used for Supplementary Figures A19 and and A20. ParFlow/: Contains the input files and run scripts to run ParFlow-CLM (/run_scripts), the python and tool command language (Tcl) scripts to create and distribute the ParFlow forcing simulation files (/forcing), and various scripts and intermediary files to analyze the model outputs (/post_process). SQUIRE/: Contains the processing scripts and intermediary files for the Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) data (Grover, 2023) used to generate Supplementary Figure A18. USGS_Streamflow/: Contains the raw and gap-filled United States Geological Survey streamflow data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2026) used at the Almont station (site number 09112500). Gap-filling is performed in the R script with data from the Taylor station (site number 09110000). (/USGS_09112500_EAST_RIVER_AT_ALMONT_GAP_FILLED/code_almont_streamflow_gap_fill.Rmd). discharge/: Contains the gap-filled discharge data at the Watershed Function SFA East River pumphouse site (Newcomer et al., 2022) used to generate Supplementary Figure A13 and to compute hourly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) in Table A4. snotel_and_flux_tower/: Contains the snow telemetry data (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) from the Butte (site ID 380) and Schofield (site ID 737) stations, reformatted by water year, accessed with the snotelr R package. Used to create Supplementary Figure A17. Also contains the flux tower observational data (FluxTower_Pumphouse_ESS-DIVE.ET_only.h.txt) from Ryken et al. (2022) and sap flux transpiration data (MaxB_Transpiration_5Sites.daily_sums.h.txt) from Ryken (2021), used to create Supplementary Figures A22 and A23, respectively. Raw EcoSLIM model outputs are in excess of 24TB, and are stored on National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and publicly available via the external link provided in the paper.

atmospheric warming↗

DOE OSTI2024

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2019

In Situ Observation of Growth Dynamics in DECLIC Directional Solidification Insert Onboard ISS: DSI-R Flight Campaign

The study of solidification microstructure formation is of utmost importance for materials design and processing, as solid-liquid interface patterns largely govern mechanical and physical properties. Pattern selection occurs under dynamic conditions of growth in which the initial morphological instability evolves nonlinearly and undergoes a reorganization process. The dynamic and nonlinear nature of this instability renders in situ observation of the interface an invaluable tool to gain knowledge on the time-evolution of the interface pattern. Transparent organic analogs, which solidify like metallic alloys, allow direct visualization of interface dynamics. Extensive ground-based studies of both metallic and organic bulk samples have established the presence of significant convection during solidification processes that alters the formation of interfacial microstructures. A reduced-gravity environment is therefore mandatory for fluid flow elimination in bulk samples. In the framework of the CNES project MISOL3D (MIcrostrutures de SOLidification 3D) and the NASA projects DSIP (Dynamical Selection of 3D Interface Patterns), SPADES (SPAtiotemporal Evolution of three-dimensional DEndritic array Structures) and CAMUS (ComputAtional Studies of MicrostrUcture Formation During Alloy Solidification in Microgravity), we participated in the development of the Directional Solidification Insert (DSI) of the DEvice for the study of Critical Liquids and Crystallization (DECLIC). The DECLIC-DSI is dedicated to in situ and real-time characterization of solid-liquid interface patterns during directional solidification of transparent alloys in diffusive transport regime. Between April 2010 and March 2011, the first ISS campaign (DSI) explored the entire range of microstructures resulting in unprecedented observations. A second campaign (DSI-R), performed between October 2017 and December 2018, in which the insert contained an alloy of higher solute concentration, allowed to complete the benchmark database. The increase of solute concentration resulted in well-developed dendritic patterns at lower velocities (lower interface curvature and larger tip radius). The microstructure resulting from dendritic growth is dominant in metallurgy so that it is fundamental to understand the mechanisms of its formation. The main aims of this experimental campaign are to understand: the mechanisms of the cell to dendrite transition, the fundamental mechanisms of sidebranching formation, the dependence of dendrite tip shapes on growth conditions, the interaction of primary array and secondary sidebranches, and the influence of subgrain boundaries on the spatiotemporal organization of the array structure. Preparation, analysis and interpretation of the experiments performed onboard ISS are considerably enhanced by experiments performed on ground using thin-samples (Pr. Trivedi’s group) and phase-field simulations of microstructure formation in a diffuse growth regime (Pr. Karma’s group). In this summary, we will present an initial assessment of the results obtained during the DSI-R campaign. Nomenclature Vp: pulling velocity G: thermal gradient L: solidified length rtip: tip curvature radius Acronyms/Abbreviations CADMOS: Centre d'Aide au Développement des activités en Micro-pesanteur et des Opérations Spatiales CNES: Centre National d’Études Spatiales DECLIC: Device for the study of Critical LIquids and Crystallization DSI: Directional Solidification Insert DSI-R: Directional Solidification Insert - Refurbish ISS: International Space Station NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration PF: phase-field SCN: Succinonitrile 3D: three-dimensional

Mota, F.L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Assessing the Dynamics and Complexity of Disease Pathogenicity Using 4-Dimensional Immunological Data

Investigating disease pathogenesis and personalized prognostics are major biomedical needs. Because patients sharing the same diagnosis can experience different outcomes, such as survival or death, physicians need new personalized tools, including those that rapidly differentiate several inflammatory phases. To address these topics, a pattern recognition-based method (PRM) that follows an inverse problem approach was designed to assess, in <10 min, eight concepts: synergy , pleiotropy , complexity , dynamics , ambiguity , circularity , personalized outcomes , and explanatory prognostics (pathogenesis). By creating thousands of secondary combinations derived from blood leukocyte data, the PRM measures synergic, pleiotropic, complex and dynamic data interactions, which provide personalized prognostics while some undesirable features—such as false results and the ambiguity associated with data circularity-are prevented. Here, this method is compared to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evaluated with data collected from hantavirus-infected humans and birds that appeared to be healthy. When human data were examined, the PRM predicted 96.9 % of all surviving patients while PCA did not distinguish outcomes. Demonstrating applications in personalized prognosis, eight PRM data structures sufficed to identify all but one of the survivors. Dynamic data patterns also distinguished survivors from non-survivors, as well as one subset of non-survivors, which exhibited chronic inflammation. When the PRM explored avian data, it differentiated immune profiles consistent with no, early, or late inflammation. Yet, PCA did not recognize patterns in avian data. Findings support the notion that immune responses, while variable, are rather deterministic: a low number of complex and dynamic data combinations may be enough to, rapidly, unmask conditions that are neither directly observable nor reliably forecasted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Visualization and Quantification of Rotor Tip Vortices in Helicopter Flows

Helicopter aeromechanics encompasses a highly vortical flow field. The vortices generated at each blade tip contain unsteady, complex, three-dimensional structures, which interact with each other, other blades, the fuselage and various components of the helicopter. It is crucial to understand vortex kinematics and their subsequent dynamic evolution. Much research has been devoted to the understanding of helicopter vortex dynamics, including a number of experimental studies.1-6 In May 2010 Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements of a full-scale UH-60A rotor were acquired in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel.1 These measurements were taken at a plane just downstream of the advancing blade in the vicinity of the blade tip—the so-called PIV plane. The resulting PIV data were then processed using an ensemble-average approach to create graphical representations of the vortical wake velocity and vorticity fields, which, in turn, have enhanced the understanding of rotorcraft vortical wake flow field physics and have provided a more detailed validation of vortical wake computer simulations.7 A common approach used to analyze flow field features is to compute and plot color contour maps of various scalar quantities such as pressure, velocity magnitude and vorticity magnitude. For example, the color map of the vorticity magnitude is typically used to determine vortical flow structure. With this approach the vortex core may appear larger or smaller, depending on the contour levels that are selected. Thus, the resulting visualization is sensitive to user-specified contour levels. For vortex core radius measurements, it is more accurate to calculate the vortex core radius using the cross-flow velocity profile across the vortex core. The task of extracting the cross-flow velocity profile can be time consuming with existing tools since the user needs to manually select the core center then specify sampling points along the profile axis. The task becomes even more challenging when the associated grid system uses AMR (Adaptive Mesh Refinement) where the profile axis could span multiple grid blocks. There are a number of existing techniques for profiling of vortex core attributes;8-9 however, these techniques are not fully automatic in that the user still needs to select the vortex core center to compute the cross-flow velocity profile. The present study introduces a new color map scheme that is based on the vortex core radius, which is fully automatic and does not require user intervention. Analysis and visualization of blade tip vortices on the PIV plane using the proposed new color map scheme are described in Section II. The new approach is evaluated using two case studies, which are described in Section III. The paper ends with a summary in Section IV.

Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multidimensional perspectives of geo-epidemiology: from interdisciplinary learning and research to cost–benefit oriented decision-making

Research typically promotes two types of outcomes (inventions and discoveries), which induce a virtuous cycle: something suspected or desired (not previously demonstrated) may become known or feasible once a new tool or procedure is invented and, later, the use of this invention may discover new knowledge. Research also promotes the opposite sequence—from new knowledge to new inventions. This bidirectional process is observed in geo-referenced epidemiology—a field that relates to but may also differ from spatial epidemiology. Geo-epidemiology encompasses several theories and technologies that promote inter/transdisciplinary knowledge integration, education, and research in population health. Based on visual examples derived from geo-referenced studies on epidemics and epizootics, this report demonstrates that this field may extract more (geographically related) information than simple spatial analyses, which then supports more effective and/or less costly interventions. Actual (not simulated) bio-geo-temporal interactions (never captured before the emergence of technologies that analyze geo-referenced data, such as geographical information systems) can now address research questions that relate to several fields, such as Network Theory. Thus, a new opportunity arises before us, which exceeds research: it also demands knowledge integration across disciplines as well as novel educational programs which, to be biomedically and socially justified, should demonstrate cost-effectiveness. Grounded on many bio-temporal-georeferenced examples, this report reviews the literature that supports this hypothesis: novel educational programs that focus on geo-referenced epidemic data may help generate cost-effective policies that prevent or control disease dissemination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.

Rogers, Laura↗

NASA NTRS2008

Intelligent Integrated Health Management for a System of Systems

An intelligent integrated health management system (IIHMS) incorporates major improvements over prior such systems. The particular IIHMS is implemented for any system defined as a hierarchical distributed network of intelligent elements (HDNIE), comprising primarily: (1) an architecture (Figure 1), (2) intelligent elements, (3) a conceptual framework and taxonomy (Figure 2), and (4) and ontology that defines standards and protocols. Some definitions of terms are prerequisite to a further brief description of this innovation: A system-of-systems (SoS) is an engineering system that comprises multiple subsystems (e.g., a system of multiple possibly interacting flow subsystems that include pumps, valves, tanks, ducts, sensors, and the like); 'Intelligent' is used here in the sense of artificial intelligence. An intelligent element may be physical or virtual, it is network enabled, and it is able to manage data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) focused on determining its condition in the context of the entire SoS; As used here, 'health' signifies the functionality and/or structural integrity of an engineering system, subsystem, or process (leading to determination of the health of components); 'Process' can signify either a physical process in the usual sense of the word or an element into which functionally related sensors are grouped; 'Element' can signify a component (e.g., an actuator, a valve), a process, a controller, an actuator, a subsystem, or a system; The term Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) is used to describe a capability that focuses on determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, prognosis of future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) not just data to control systems for safe and effective operation. A major novel aspect of the present development is the concept of intelligent integration. The purpose of intelligent integration, as defined and implemented in the present IIHMS, is to enable automated analysis of physical phenomena in imitation of human reasoning, including the use of qualitative methods. Intelligent integration is said to occur in a system in which all elements are intelligent and can acquire, maintain, and share knowledge and information. In the HDNIE of the present IIHMS, an SoS is represented as being operationally organized in a hierarchical-distributed format. The elements of the SoS are considered to be intelligent in that they determine their own conditions within an integrated scheme that involves consideration of data, information, knowledge bases, and methods that reside in all elements of the system. The conceptual framework of the HDNIE and the methodologies of implementing it enable the flow of information and knowledge among the elements so as to make possible the determination of the condition of each element. The necessary information and knowledge is made available to each affected element at the desired time, satisfying a need to prevent information overload while providing context-sensitive information at the proper level of detail. Provision of high-quality data is a central goal in designing this or any IIHMS. In pursuit of this goal, functionally related sensors are logically assigned to groups denoted processes. An aggregate of processes is considered to form a system. Alternatively or in addition to what has been said thus far, the HDNIE of this IIHMS can be regarded as consisting of a framework containing object models that encapsulate all elements of the system, their individual and relational knowledge bases, generic methods and procedures based on models of the applicable physics, and communication processes (Figure 2). The framework enables implementation of a paradigm inspired by how expert operators monitor the health of systems with the help of (1) DIaK from various sources, (2) software tools that assist in rapid visualization of the condition of the system, (3) analical software tools that assist in reasoning about the condition, (4) sharing of information via network communication hardware and software, and (5) software tools that aid in making decisions to remedy unacceptable conditions or improve performance.

Smith, Harvey↗