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Facets and Challenges of Managing the Development of a $1 Billion Satellite

Contents include the folloving: Presidents budget. Office of Administrator chart. Aura project organization chart. Agreements. Aura observatory configuration. Aura science questions. EOS Aura atmospheric profile measurements. Science objectives: tracking ozone layer recovery; global measurements of air quality; impact of atmospheric constituente on climate. MLS instruments, OH measurement example. Osone monitoring instrument (OMI). OMI technology. OMI will track global ozone changes.

Loiacono, John↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report: Improving NOAA's PORTS(R) Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including nautical charting, maritime navigation, hydrography, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings. Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years. NOAA s PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System) DST (decision support tool), managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, supports safe and cost-efficient navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid groundings and collisions. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s PORTS. NASA has a long heritage of collecting data for ocean research, including its current Terra and Aqua missions. Numerous other missions provide additional important information for coastal management issues, and data collection will continue in the coming decade with such missions as the OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission). OSTM will provide data on sea-surface heights for determining ocean circulation, climate change, and sea-level rise. We suggest that NASA incorporate OSTM altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA s PORTS DST in support of NASA s Coastal Management National Application with secondary support to the Disaster Management and Public Health National Applications.

Guest, DeNeice↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Improving NOAA's Tides and Currents Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including hydrography, nautical charting, maritime navigation, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings (NOAA, 2002; Digby et al., 1999). Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years (NOAA, 2006). NOAA s Tides & Currents DST (decision support tool, managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, is the portal to a vast collection of oceanographic and meteorological data (historical and real-time), predictions, and nowcasts and forecasts. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s Tides & Currents.

Guest, DeNeice C.↗

Methodology for Designing Fault-Protection Software

A document describes a methodology for designing fault-protection (FP) software for autonomous spacecraft. The methodology embodies and extends established engineering practices in the technical discipline of Fault Detection, Diagnosis, Mitigation, and Recovery; and has been successfully implemented in the Deep Impact Spacecraft, a NASA Discovery mission. Based on established concepts of Fault Monitors and Responses, this FP methodology extends the notion of Opinion, Symptom, Alarm (aka Fault), and Response with numerous new notions, sub-notions, software constructs, and logic and timing gates. For example, Monitor generates a RawOpinion, which graduates into Opinion, categorized into no-opinion, acceptable, or unacceptable opinion. RaiseSymptom, ForceSymptom, and ClearSymptom govern the establishment and then mapping to an Alarm (aka Fault). Local Response is distinguished from FP System Response. A 1-to-n and n-to- 1 mapping is established among Monitors, Symptoms, and Responses. Responses are categorized by device versus by function. Responses operate in tiers, where the early tiers attempt to resolve the Fault in a localized step-by-step fashion, relegating more system-level response to later tier(s). Recovery actions are gated by epoch recovery timing, enabling strategy, urgency, MaxRetry gate, hardware availability, hazardous versus ordinary fault, and many other priority gates. This methodology is systematic, logical, and uses multiple linked tables, parameter files, and recovery command sequences. The credibility of the FP design is proven via a fault-tree analysis "top-down" approach, and a functional fault-mode-effects-and-analysis via "bottoms-up" approach. Via this process, the mitigation and recovery strategy(s) per Fault Containment Region scope (width versus depth) the FP architecture.

Barltrop, Kevin↗

Applications of Advanced Nondestructive Measurement Techniques to Address Safety of Flight Issues on NASA Spacecraft

Advanced nondestructive measurement techniques are critical for ensuring the reliability and safety of NASA spacecraft. Techniques such as infrared thermography, THz imaging, X-ray computed tomography and backscatter X-ray are used to detect indications of damage in spacecraft components and structures. Additionally, sensor and measurement systems are integrated into spacecraft to provide structural health monitoring to detect damaging events that occur during flight such as debris impacts during launch and assent or from micrometeoroid and orbital debris, or excessive loading due to anomalous flight conditions. A number of examples will be provided of how these nondestructive measurement techniques have been applied to resolve safety critical inspection concerns for the Space Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and a variety of launch vehicles and unmanned spacecraft.

Prosser, Bill↗

Functional Fault Model Development Process to Support Design Analysis and Operational Assessment

A functional fault model (FFM) is an abstract representation of the failure space of a givensystem. As such, it simulates the propagation of failure effects along paths between the origin ofthe system failure modes and points within the system capable of observing the failure effects. Asa result, FFMs may be used to diagnose the presence of failures in the modeled system. FFMsnecessarily contain a significant amount of information about the design, operations, and failuremodes and effects. One of the important benefits of FFMs is that they may be qualitative, ratherthan quantitative and, as a result, may be implemented early in the design process when there ismore potential to positively impact the system design. FFMs may therefore be developed andmatured throughout the monitored system's design process and may subsequently be used toprovide real-time diagnostic assessments that support system operations. This paper provides anoverview of a generalized NASA process that is being used to develop and apply FFMs. FFMtechnology has been evolving for more than 25 years. The FFM development process presented inthis paper was refined during NASA's Ares I, Space Launch System, and Ground SystemsDevelopment and Operations programs (i.e., from about 2007 to the present). Process refinementtook place as new modeling, analysis, and verification tools were created to enhance FFMcapabilities. In this paper, standard elements of a model development process (i.e., knowledgeacquisition, conceptual design, implementation & verification, and application) are describedwithin the context of FFMs. Further, newer tools and analytical capabilities that may benefit thebroader systems engineering process are identified and briefly described. The discussion isintended as a high-level guide for future FFM modelers.

Melcher, Kevin J.↗

Air and Water Temperature Relationship and Growth of Hyacinth and Primrose

Temperature is a primary determining factor for plant growth and development so providing an appropriate temperature input is critically important for developing growth models. The Delta Region Areawide Aquatic Weed Project (DRAAWP), a USDA (US Dept. of Agriculture)-sponsored area-wide project including NASA Ames Research Center and State of California Department of Boating and Waterways, uses modeling to assess invasive aquatic plant impacts on ecosystem services in the Delta. Availability of continuous records for monitored temperature is limited and particularly in the case of water temperature the distribution of monitoring is inadequate. This work quantitatively defines the influence of air and water temperature in determining dominant growth rate processes for important floating aquatic invasive plants in the Delta. Since these plants function with portions submerged and above water we wanted to understand the relationship between root zone and shoot zone temperature and ability to use a single temperature inputs in DRAAWP models. Water Hyacinth and Primrose were gown in multiple controlled environment chamber studies with various combinations of root zone and shoot zone temperatures. Long-term growth studies provided integrated response of biomass accumulation and distribution within the canopy. Short-term gas exchange studies provide a time scale for responsiveness to temperature and a short-term study approach to evaluate temperature responses at various stages of canopy development.

Hyacinth↗

Fire Station #2, Former Sewage Treatment Plant #17, and Towway Area-SWMU 114 PFAS Site Assessment Progress Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This PFAS Site Assessment Progress Report (SAPR) presents the findings of the 2022 PFAS investigation conducted from November 2021 through August 2022 at Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 114 located within Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. SWMU 114 includes area around Fire Station #2, Former Sewage Treatment Plant #17, the southern portion of the Shuttle Landing Facility Runway, Remote Launch Vehicle Hangar, and the Towway area. Fire Station #2 was constructed in 2008 and is currently active, housing fire station personnel and equipment, including aqueous film forming foam (AFFF). Releases of AFFF has occurred at SWMU 114. Previous environmental assessments have been performed at SWMU 114, including soil, groundwater, and surface water sampling for volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and metals. No active remediation has been performed at the SWMU 114. PFAS site assessment field activities were conducted at SWMU 114 from November 2021 through August 2022. During the 2021-2022 Site Assessment, 124 direct-push samples were collected from 27 locations, 17 surface water samples were collected from 15 locations, 41 groundwater samples were collected from 37 newly installed monitoring wells, five concrete samples were collected from four locations, and one asphalt sample was collected. Additionally, two soil borings were advanced to 60 feet for lithologic descriptions, ten staff gauges were installed, and one round of water level measurements were collected from monitoring wells and staff gauges for groundwater flow determination. All groundwater and surface water samples were analyzed for 25 PFAS analytes by USEPA Method 537M. Concrete, and asphalt samples were analyzed by synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) PFAS analysis by USEPA Modified Method 537M. Groundwater results were compared to the most recent Regional Screening Levels (RSLs) published by USEPA for residential tap water (USEPA, 2022a) to determine the extent of PFAS contamination at SWMU 114 for six PFAS analytes (PFOA, PFNA, PFBS, PFHxS, PFOS, and GenX). Surface water results were compared to the FDEP surface water screening levels (SW SLs) (FDEP, 2020) for PFOA and PFOS. The PFAS investigation concluded that groundwater exceeding RSLs extends east and south to Banana Creek and west to approximately the center of the SLF runway. The extent of PFAS is approximated to the north, to an area between Sharkey Road and Astronaut Road, where samples below the RSLs do not fully bound SWMU 114. At least two distinct PFAS source areas are located near Fire Station #2 and along Towway, at S114-MW0007S, within SWMU 114. Groundwater head measurements indicate that flow at SWMU 114 is generally similar across the shallow and intermediate water tables. A northeast to southwest trending groundwater divide is located near the middle of Towway where groundwater southeast of the divide flows to the south and groundwater northwest of the divide flows to the west. The groundwater divide generally separates the two areas of higher PFAS concentrations. Surface water samples indicated concentrations of PFOS above the SW SLs in surface water bodies across the site. Further assessment and sampling are required to better understand the interaction between groundwater and surface water at SWMU 114. Concrete and asphalt samples collected confirm that a significant release of AFFF occurred near the stormwater pond northwest of Fire Station #2. Additional concrete samples surrounding Fire Station #2 and at the northwest and southeast edges of the SLF tarmac indicate elevated PFOS concentrations. These results indicate that discharges of AFFF in these locations have infiltrated into asphalt and concrete and may act as a continuing source of PFAS to groundwater and surface water after rain events. Additional direct-push samples are required to delineate PFAS at SWMU 114. Samples may need to extend beyond the Former SLF Rescue Building and Morpheous Test Site to delineate PFAS in groundwater. Monitoring wells should be sampled and gauged quarterly to determine if seasonal impacts are observable, especially in shallow wells near surface water features. Furthermore, surface water samples should be collected from additional ditches to further define the extent of surface water impacts at SWMU 114 and extending along the SLF runway. Staff gauges should be gauged quarterly with groundwater gauging to determine surface water flow and interaction with groundwater. The PFAS sampling results and path forward for SWMU 114 were presented to the KSC Remediation Team in October 2022. Once the PFAS SAPR is approved, it will be submitted to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

Howard Franklin Fowler↗

Three-Wavelength Approach for Aerosol-Cloud Discrimination in the Sage III/ISS Aerosol Extinction Dataset

The tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is dominated by aerosols and clouds affecting Earth’s radiation budget and climate. Thus, satellites’ continuous monitoring and identification of these layers is crucial for quantifying their radiative impact. However, distinguishing between aerosols and clouds is challenging, especially under the perturbed UTLS conditions during post-volcanic eruptions and wildfire events. Aerosol-cloud discrimination is primarily based on their disparate wavelength-dependent scattering and absorption properties. In this study, we use aerosol extinction observations in the tropical (15°N-15°S) UTLS from June 2017 to February 2021, available from the latest generation of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instrument-SAGE III onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to study aerosols and clouds. During this period, the SAGE III/ISS provided better coverage over the tropics at additional wavelength channels (relative to previous SAGE missions) and witnessed several volcanic and wildfire events that perturbed the tropical UTLS. We explore the advantage of having an extinction coefficient at an additional wavelength channel (1550 nm) from the SAGE III/ISS in aerosol-cloud discrimination using a method based on thresholds of two extinction coefficient ratios, R1R1 (520 nm/1020 nm) and R2R2 (1020 nm/1550 nm). This method was proposed earlier by Kent et al. [Appl. Opt. 36, 8639 (1997) [CrossRef] ] for the SAGE III-Meteor-3M but was never tested for the tropical region under volcanically perturbed conditions. We call this method the Extinction Color Ratio (ECR) method. The ECR method is applied to the SAGE III/ISS aerosol extinction data to obtain cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficients, cloud-top altitude, and seasonal cloud occurrence frequency during the entire study period. Cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficient obtained using the ECR method revealed the presence of enhanced aerosols in the UTLS following volcanic eruptions and wildfire events consistent with the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and space-borne lidar-Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The cloud-top altitude obtained from the SAGE III/ISS is within 1 km of the nearly co-located observations from OMPS and CALIOP. In general, the seasonal mean cloud-top altitude from the SAGE III/ISS events peaks during the December, January, and February months, with sunset events showing higher cloud tops than the sunrise events, indicating the seasonal and diurnal variation of the tropical convection. The seasonal altitude distribution of cloud occurrence frequency obtained from the SAGE III/ISS also agrees well with CALIOP observations within 10%. We show that the ECR method is a simple approach that relies on thresholds independent of the sampling period, providing cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficients uniformly for climate studies irrespective of the UTLS conditions. However, since the predecessor of SAGE III did not include a 1550 nm channel, the usefulness of this approach is limited to short-term climate studies after 2017.

Clouds Aerosols↗

Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis Facility, SWMU #041 - Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Site Assessment Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This PFAS Site Assessment (SA) Report presents the activities and results associated with PFAS investigations at the Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis (CRCA) facility located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. In 2022, CRCA was identified as an Area of Potential Concern because the facility stores several potential PFAS-containing chemicals. A groundwater sample collected from an onsite monitoring well detected PFOA and PFOS at concentrations greater than State of Florida provisional Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (pGCTLs). PFAS SA activities were conducted between March 2022 and February 2024. During this timeframe, a total of 16 direct-push technology (DPT) locations and 82 discrete samples were collected from these locations, along with 90 monitoring well samples. The analytical data screening process focused on State of Florida pGCTLs and United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Regional Screening Level (RSLs) from November 2023 to evaluate the data. Analytical results identified PFOS, PFOA, and PFBA at concentrations exceeding their respective RSLs at each depth interval (shallow, intermediate, and deep). PFOS and PFOA had the largest footprint of RSL exceedances in each depth interval, but pGCTL exceedances were only observed at limited locations in the shallow and intermediate intervals. PFBA had the highest detections of any PFAS compound, with concentrations exceeding 180,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L), which is 100-times the RSL of 1,800 ng/L in the shallow and intermediate intervals and 10-times the RSL in the deep interval. The maximum PFBA detection was 841,000 ng/L at shallow monitoring well, MW0006. The PFAS SA also included samples collected from the onsite hydraulic containment system (HCS) which was installed to control and treat the onsite chlorinated volatile organic compound (CVOC) plume. Influent and effluent aqueous samples were collected monthly from the system. PFAS concentrations were relatively the same for both influent and effluent samples, indicating that while the HCS has been effective for CVOC treatment, it does not provide any additional treatment for PFAS compounds. Since the HCS has achieved its objectives, the system was shut down in December 2024. PFAS data gaps still exist, to include surface water and soil, which were not sampled during this SA. Soil sampling near the Chemical Process Area is recommended. Surface water and soil sampling at select stormwater outfalls is also recommended. Additionally, further groundwater sampling is recommended (DPT and monitoring well) in all depth intervals to delineate the extent of PFAS impacts at CRCA.

K Alex Murphy↗

DIGITAL APPLICATIONS USING REAL-TIME VEHICLE EXHAUST INFORMATION

Vehicle emission is a major source of air pollution that causes a significant number of deaths globally. It has a profound impact on energy and the environment as well. The existing vehicle emission monitoring system is unable to help mitigating the pollution properly and therefore, requires precise real-time pollution measurement. The purpose of this paper is to discuss novel applications using the real-time measurement of pollutants from a vehicle tailpipe where exhaust gases enter the environment. Today, it is possible to measure such emission due to the emergence of affordable digital technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), wireless connectivity, cloud platform, and artificial intelligence. This paper discusses how digital technologies can be used for real-time monitoring of NOx gas as a measure of vehicle emission and predictive analytics applications. A description of data collection and pre-processing methodologies, actual collected data, and an approach to identify patterns between inputs such as vehicle speed and altitude and output such as NOx emission are included. Applying a simple neural network has produced promising results and is a first step towards developing predictive applications.

Digital, Vehicle Exhaust, IoT, AI, 1.4.2, Predicti↗

Modeling the Worst-Case-Scenario of Soil Drydown for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in Kansas Using NASA Earth Observations and In-situ Parameters

Climatologists in Kansas have observed rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions and rapid intensification of drought conditions for the state in recent years. As a leading state in agricultural production, drought events can lead to decreased crop yields and impact the state’s economy. The exponential decay of soil moisture content is a major consequence of drought and can exacerbate these impacts on agricultural production. This study examined the rate of soil moisture drydown in Kansas to understand and monitor the worst-case-scenario of short-term soil water shortage. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band Radiometer rootzone soil moisture imagery from March 2015 to June 2019 was used to estimate the minimum and maximum soil moisture capacity throughout the state. In situ soil moisture parameters, such as the exponential decay constant, were approximated from the Kansas Mesonet system. These variables were inputs into an exponential decay model that forecasted gridded rootzone soil moisture in a scenario that assumed no precipitation for a user-identified period of time. The forecasts were output on the order of weeks to capture the rapid shifts in soil moisture content. Another model was used to identify areas in Kansas currently below a given percentage of the relative soil moisture saturation, measured as a function of minimum, maximum, and current soil moisture. This model forecasted the number of days until each cell in the soil moisture grid reached the input percentage of relative soil moisture saturation. The gridded model outputs and workflow were developed in partnership with the Kansas Water Office and Kansas Office of the State Climatologist at Kansas State University, as a part of their drought monitoring efforts.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Blind to Chemistry: Molecular Contaminant Films We Could Be Missing During Visual Inspections and the Potential Impact to System Performance

Throughout the assembly, integration and test process, molecular contamination levels of space mission hardware are monitored to meet system performance requirements. Qualitatively, reflective surfaces and witness mirrors are continuously inspected for the visible presence of molecular contaminant films. Quantitatively, periodic reflectance measurements of witness mirrors indicate changes of mirror reflectivity over time due to the accumulation of molecular contaminant films. However, both methods only consider the presence of a contaminant film and not the molecular composition. Additionally, there is a risk that hardware may appear to be “visibly clean” even with a molecular contaminant film present on critical surfaces. To address these issues, experiments were performed to quantify the maximum molecular contaminant film that could be missed in visual inspections on witness mirrors with five different contaminants present. The corresponding changes in mirror reflectivity were modeled using the program STACK to determine the impact to space mission hardware performance. The results of this study not only show the criticality in considering the chemical make-up of molecular contaminant films on system performance, but also the need to recognize and understand the limitations of traditional visual inspection techniques on detecting molecular contaminant films.

Seasly, Elaine↗

Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment Preliminary Design and Analysis

The ability to deploy new nuclear fuels for current or future reactor concepts requires carefully designed experiments to generate data to support fuel qualification. Ideally these experiments would include state of-the-art sensing to maximize the amount of in situ data that can be collected during operation. Furthermore, advanced reactor systems can take advantage of integrated in-core sensing technologies to maximize fuel utilization, reduce unnecessary conservativism in design margins, and improve operator’s understanding of limiting peaking factors. Before any novel sensing technologies can be readily adopted for nuclear applications, they must first demonstrate acceptable performance in test reactors. This report summarizes the preliminary design and analysis of the most highly instrumented irradiation experiment ever performed in the removable beryllium (RB) positions of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21) will test a wide range of sensors including wireless sensors being developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) that could provide in situ measurements of peak fuel temperatures and fuel rod pressurization due to fission gas release. The ability to wirelessly transmit a signal through the fuel rod’s cladding is critical to improving fuel monitoring capabilities without requiring signal penetrations through the cladding pressure boundary, which would significantly impact fuel fabrication, handling, and operation. Other sensors that will be tested in WIRE-21 include an array of thermocouples, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs), and spatially distributed fiber-optic temperature sensors. More generally, WIRE-21 will establish a flexible irradiation vehicle design to allow accelerated, economical testing of advanced sensor technologies while leveraging the extremely high neutron flux that is available in HFIR. This report summarizes the mechanical design for WIRE-21, the experimental test matrix, initial neutronic and thermal design analyses, and the active monitoring and control system enhancements necessary to support testing of advanced sensor technologies. The containment for WIRE-21 is similar to previous RB irradiation vehicles but includes a few modifications, most notably the use of integrated compression seals to pass a larger number of sensor leads through the experiment’s pressure boundary. In addition to the sensor leads, inert gas lines are passed into the experiment to enable active temperature control and the ability to pneumatically actuate a bellows-driven pressure sensor. WIRE-21 is targeting temperatures (300–350°C) and neutron fluence levels (~10 22 n/cm 2 ) relevant to light water reactors (LWRs), but the flexible design of the experiment vehicle allows much higher operating temperatures (>1,100°C). Neutronic calculations determine the neutron flux conditions as well as the nuclear heating within the experiments. These results are used as inputs to detailed thermal finite element calculations, which are required to evaluate the complex, three-dimensional heat transfer that occurs within WEC’s wireless sensor enclosures. Initial results show that the temperatures of the sensors’ enclosures and the metal bellows can be operated near the temperature range of LWR coolants and cladding while simultaneously increasing the temperature of a surrogate fuel material to values in the range of 800–1200°C to simulate centerline fuel temperatures during LWR operation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.

Doell, Petra↗

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Southern California environment from ERTS-1

ERTS-1 imagery is a useful source of data for evaluation of earth resources in Southern California. The improving quality of ERTS-1 imagery, and our increasing ability to enhance the imagery has resulted in studies of a variety of phenomena in several Southern California environments. These investigations have produced several significant results of varying detail. They include the detection and identification of macro-scale tectonic and vegetational patterns, as well as detailed analysis of urban and agricultural processes. The sequential nature of ERTS-1 imagery has allowed these studies to monitor significant changes in the environment. In addiation, some preliminary work has begun directed toward assessing the impact of expanding recreation, agriculture and urbanization into the fragile desert environment. Refinement of enhancement and mapping techniques and more intensive analysis of ERTS-1 imagery should lead to a greater capability to extract detailed information for more precise evaluations and more accurate monitoring of earth resources in Southern California.

Bowden, L. W.↗

Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan↗