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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Systematic Analysis of Stellar Populations in the Host Galaxies of Changing-look AGNs

“Changing-look” active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) are a newly discovered class of AGNs that show the appearance (or disappearance) of broad emission lines within short timescales (months to years),and are often associated with dramatic changes in their continuum emissions. They provide us with an unprecedented chance to directly investigate the host galaxy properties with minimal contamination from the luminous central engine during the turn-off state, which is difficult for normal luminous AGNs. In this work, for the first time, we systematically characterize the stellar populations and star formation histories of host galaxies for 26 turn-off CL-AGNs using the stellar population synthesis code STARLIGHT. We find that the stellar populations of CL-AGNs are similar to those of normal AGNs, except that the intermediate stellar populations contribute more fractions. We estimate their stellar velocity dispersions (σ * ) and black hole masses (M BH , vir ), and find that CL-AGNs also follow the overall M BH –σ * relationship. We also confirm the previous claims that CL-AGNs tend to be biased toward lower Eddington ratios, and that their extreme variabilities are more likely due to the intrinsic changes of the accretion rates. In addition, CL-AGNs with recent star formations tend to have higher Eddington ratios. Compared with previous studies, our analysis suggests that there may be a correlation between CL-AGN host galaxy properties and their CL phenomena.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Pore Morphology in Spray-Formed Tantalum Using X-ray Micro-computed Tomography

In order to establish quantitative process–structure–property relationships in thermal spray coatings, a robust framework for defining (micro)structural characteristics is needed. Here, we present a quantitative characterization of the three-dimensional morphology of porosity in spray-formed tantalum samples based on high-resolution X-ray micro-computed tomography. Using synchrotron facilities, we acquired dozens of high-resolution scans, enabling a statistically meaningful comparison across multiple samples, different regions within samples, and spray processes. We quantify the spatial distribution, size, and topology of porous inclusions, with a significant focus on variability across samples and different spray processes (plasma and cold sprayed), as well as sensitivity to image segmentation and resolution. Based on a typical segmentation, we report porosities ranging from 0.9 to 1.7 pct for all samples tested, with significant sensitivity due to image segmentation resulting in estimates as low as 0.6 pct and as high as 4.8 pct. For the complex pore space morphology observed in these materials, we argue that a conventional analysis based on identifying individual pores is not well suited, and propose an alternative approach based on morphological metrics with a rich history in porous media literature, such as spatial correlations, local pore thickness, and scale-dependent sub-sampling. Spatial correlations indicate anisotropic splat structures, but only mildly anisotropic pores. Various measures of pore size show a wide distribution of sizes, ranging from sub-micron to 10-micron length scales. Scale-dependent variations in porosity suggest that representative volumes of several hundred microns are required for convergence of morphological metrics, with larger volumes for cold-spray materials. This work provides a robust quantitative basis for describing three-dimensional pore structure in thermal spray coatings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of the Milky Way’s thin disc radial metallicity gradient with K2 asteroseismic ages

ABSTRACT The radial metallicity distribution of the Milky Way’s disc is an important observational constraint for models of the formation and evolution of our Galaxy. It informs our understanding of the chemical enrichment of the Galactic disc and the dynamical processes therein, particularly radial migration. We investigate how the metallicity changes with guiding radius in the thin disc using a sample of red giant stars with robust astrometric, spectroscopic, and asteroseismic parameters. Our sample contains 668 stars with guiding radii 4 < Rg < 11 kpc and asteroseismic ages covering the whole history of the thin disc with precision ${\approx} 25 {{\, \rm per\ cent}}$. We use MCMC analysis to measure the gradient and its intrinsic spread in bins of age and construct a hierarchical Bayesian model to investigate the evolution of these parameters independently of the bins. We find a smooth evolution of the gradient from ≈−0.07 dex kpc−1 in the youngest stars to ≈−0.04 dex kpc−1 in stars older than 10 Gyr, with no break at intermediate ages. Our results are consistent with those based on asteroseismic ages from CoRoT, with that found in Cepheid variables for stars younger than 1 Gyr, and with open clusters for stars younger than 6 Gyr. For older stars we find a significantly lower metallicity in our sample than in the clusters, suggesting a survival bias favouring more metal-rich clusters. We also find that the chemical evolution model of Chiappini '09 is too metal poor in the early stages of disc formation. Our results provide strong new constraints for the growth and enrichment of the thin disc and radial migration, which will facilitate new tests of model conditions and physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Focus history of the Hubble Space Telescope: Launch to May 1993

Since the launch of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) the secondary mirror of the telescope has been moved several times in order to collimate the telescope and also to define a position of best focus. In addition to these moves the focus position changes over time because of water desorption by the graphite epoxy in the metering truss. The authors report here the focus history of the telescope based on a knowledge of the mirror moves made and an analysis of desorption monitoring data obtained by the Faint Object Camera (FOC) in the F/96 mode and of the routine calibration data obtained by the Wide Field and Planetary Cameras. Focus values are extracted using two different methods. In the first method the distance between the center of the point spread function (PSF) and the shadows of the pads supporting the HST primary mirror are related to the focus error. In the second method an analytical formula for the PSF with variable aberration coefficients is fitted to the data. Focus positions derived from the two methods show good agreement. The data show that a desorption of about 83 microns has taken place since Aug. 16, 1990. The desorption has clearly not leveled off as expected from the trend of the earlier data. Long term variations of the secondary mirror position of approximately 3-15 microns from the 'best' focus position have been observed. Variations of the order of 2-5 microns over an orbital period have also been noted. Focus changes resulting from secondary mirror movements greater than approximately 5 microns changes the point spread function significantly and makes deconvolution and quantitative measurements difficult.

Hasan, H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using A Guided Interview to Create an Individual Exposure Profile for The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH)

BACKGROUND To support NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) project, Individual Exposure Profiles (IEPs) were developed to record an astronaut’s pre-, in-, and post-NASA exposures. NASA astronauts were invited to participate in a one-time guided interview to review known hazard exposures and medical history documented in NASA records and to add new information not otherwise reported. The purpose of the IEP project was to determine if any significant information was gained from these interviews and identify potential trends in long-term health. METHODOLOGY The pre-filled exposure profile data was extracted from several sources including medical records, biographies, and LSAH records. The information that was pre-filled before the interview included occupational exposures prior to selection to the Astronaut Corps, during active astronaut career (e.g., EVA and ground-based training, on-orbit exposures), and after active career. The IEPs also contained relevant medical history (e.g., audiometry, illnesses, injuries) and significant non-occupational exposures. 189 interviews were conducted from 2012-2014. A Microsoft Access database was created to store the information collected in the IEPs before and after the interviews. The database houses the information from the IEPs to track the updates made to the original data. By analyzing which astronauts supplied additional information and which kinds of data were consistently added, potential gaps and trends in missing data may be identified. In designing the database, an efficient structure was implemented for ease of inputting data and to create variables that would generate quantifiable data. Creating standardized variables within the structure helped ease the process of inputting, organizing data, and analyzing data. Additional updates/data were denoted and were categorized by type of update. The categories identified were “Confirmed”, “Confirmed & Supplemented”, “Supplemented”, “Denied”, “Denied & Supplemented”, and “Other”. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND RESULTS To assess frequency of exposure updates, descriptive statistics will be generated and stratified by relevant factors such as astronaut selection decade, age at selection, and program/era. Hypothesis testing will be performed to understand the associations between updates to exposure information and population characteristics.

Astronaut health↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mineralogy of Pyroxene and Olivine in the Almahata Sitta Ureilite

The Almahata Sitta meteorite (hereafter "Alma") is the first example of a recovered asteroidal sample that fell to earth after detection still in the orbit (2008TC3 asteroid), and thus is critical to understand the relationship between meteorites and their asteroidal parent bodies [1]. Alma is a polymict ureilite showing a fine-grained brecciated texture with variable lithologies from black, porous to denser, white stones [1]. It is an anomalous ureilite because of wide compositional ranges of silicates with abundant pores often coated by vapor-deposit crystals [1]. Nevertheless, Alma has general similarities to all ureilites because of reduction textures of silicates suggestive of rapid cooling from high temperature as well as heterogeneous oxygen isotope compositions [e.g., 1-5]. Alma is especially unique because it spans the compositional range of known ureilites [1]. In this abstract we report detailed mineralogical and crystallographic investigations of two different fragments to further constrain its thermal history with regards to the nature of the ureilite parent body.

Mikouchi, T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

CPViz: Visualizing clinical pathways represented in higher-order networks

To improve clinical care practice, it is important to understand the variability of clinical pathways executed in different contexts (e.g., pathways in different geographical locations, demographics, and phenotypic groups). A common way of representing clinical pathways is through network-based representations that capture trajectories of treatment steps. However, first-order networks, which are based on the Markovian property and the de facto standard model to represent transitions between steps, often fail to capture real trajectories. This paper introduces a visual analytic tool to explore and compare pathways represented in higher-order networks. Because each higher node in the network is a subtrajectory (i.e., partial or full history of treatment steps), the tool can display true sequences of treatment steps and compute the similarity of the two networks in a space of higher-order nodes. The tool also highlights areas in which the two networks are similar and dissimilar and how a certain subtrajectory is realized differently in different pathways. The paper demonstrates the tool's usefulness by applying it to multiple antidepressant pharmacotherapy pathways for veterans diagnosed with major depressive disorder and by illustrating heterogeneity in prescription patterns across pathways.

Chae, Junghoon↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Mass-loss History of the Red Hypergiant VY CMa

Imaging and spectroscopy of the knots, clumps, and extended arcs in the complex ejecta of VY CMa confirm a record of high mass-loss events over the past few hundred years. Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph spectroscopy of numerous small knots close to the star allow us to measure their radial velocities from the strong K i emission and determine their separate motions, spatial orientations, and time since ejecta. Their ages concentrate around 70, 120, 200, and 250 yr ago. A K i emission knot only 50 mas from the star ejected as recently as 1985–1995 may coincide with an H{sub 2}O maser. Comparison with VY CMa’s historic light curve from 1800 to the present shows several knots with ejection times that correspond with extended periods of variability and deep minima. The similarity of this correspondence in VY CMa with the remarkable recent dimming of Betelgeuse and an outflow of gas is apparent. The evidence for similar outflows from the surface of a more typical red supergiant suggests that discrete ejections are more common and surface or convective activity is a major source of mass loss for red supergiants.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A generalizable machine learning-assisted fast Fourier transform algorithm to simulate the large strain phenomena in polycrystalline materials

Machine learning methods have shown initial promise in constitutive modeling for single crystals or homogenized polycrystals, delivering notable computational efficiency. However, existing machine learning-based constitutive models often lack generalizability, limiting their application across diverse boundary value problems. This study introduces a thermodynamics-informed artificial neural network model to accelerate rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform simulations for cross-scale deformation behaviors of polycrystals under complex loading. Our model integrates microstructural variability and local interactions effectively. To address local effects in each grain, we employ K-means clustering to group Gauss points within the microstructure into clusters assumed to be in similar mechanical states. This approach, based on self-clustering analysis, extends model scope from macroscopic stress response to the granular level, capturing mechanical responses and orientation evolution across grains. This reduces the number of nonlinear problems to solve, with cluster responses propagated throughout each group. The thermodynamics-based artificial neural network-extracted features are further processed using local material state clusters to account for history-dependent deformation and evolving microstructures. Additionally, representative volume element simulations with rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform provide reliable datasets for model training. The proposed model demonstrates high efficiency, accuracy, self-consistency, and enhanced generalizability in predicting strain–stress responses and orientation evolution at both individual grain and aggregate scales under complex loading conditions, such as biaxial tension and arbitrary loading scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial assessment of second generation of large-area picosecond photodetectors with multi-channel systems-on-a-chip readout

Here, we first briefly describe the history and motivation behind Cherenkov and scintillation light detection. We then discuss the instrumentation needed to detect these photons as it applies to both photodetectors and readout electronics. One of the motivations is future large neutrino detectors that could, in principle, differentiate between Cherenkov and scintillation light if using novel water-based scintillators. In this paper, we present the first measurements utilizing the second generation of Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors (LAPPDs) in conjunction with commercial system-on-a-chip readouts from Nalu Scientific—in particular, the High Density System on Chip (HDSoC) and Advanced ASoC Rapid Digitizer, Variable Adaptive Readout Chip (AARDVARC) platforms. These state-of-the-art full-waveform digitizers feature sampling rates on the order of 1 and 10 samples per nanosecond, respectively. Using a picosecond laser, we measured the timing jitter between a pair of LAPPD channels, demonstrating the potential of this setup for precise timing applications.

Li, V. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Influence of Strain Path and Heat Treatment Variations on Recrystallization in Cold-Rolled High-Purity Niobium Polycrystals

With the standard material and cavity production guidelines, the properties and performance of industrially produced high-purity niobium superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities are unpredictably variable. Currently, assembled niobium SRF cavities undergo post-purification vacuum heat treatment at 800 °C for three hours to remove hydrogen and increase performance; however, recent work has shown significant improvements in cavity performance when annealed between 900–1000 °C, causing recrystallization (Rx). Increasing the annealing temperature and/or the heating rate should facilitate the onset of Rx, resulting in a greater reduction in the density of geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) that are strongly associated with the degradation of cavity performance via trapped magnetic flux. Improving the SRF community's understanding of the influence of both heat treatment and deformation history on the resulting microstructure and Rx behavior in high-purity niobium is needed. This fundamental metallurgy is critical for identifying improved specifications for the consistent production of high-performing niobium SRF cavities. This research investigates variations in deformation paths, heating rates, and annealing temperatures on Rx of deformed samples of polycrystalline high-purity niobium. To assess the effects of strain path, samples were cold-rolled to ~30% reduction prior to annealing, with half of the sample set rolled parallel to the as-received niobium sheet and the other half in the transverse direction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1994

Parabolized stability equations

The parabolized stability equations (PSE) are a new approach to analyze the streamwise evolution of single or interacting Fourier modes in weakly nonparallel flows such as boundary layers. The concept rests on the decomposition of every mode into a slowly varying amplitude function and a wave function with slowly varying wave number. The neglect of the small second derivatives of the slowly varying functions with respect to the streamwise variable leads to an initial boundary-value problem that can be solved by numerical marching procedures. The PSE approach is valid in convectively unstable flows. The equations for a single mode are closely related to those of the traditional eigenvalue problems for linear stability analysis. However, the PSE approach does not exploit the homogeneity of the problem and, therefore, can be utilized to analyze forced modes and the nonlinear growth and interaction of an initial disturbance field. In contrast to the traditional patching of local solutions, the PSE provide the spatial evolution of modes with proper account for their history. The PSE approach allows studies of secondary instabilities without the constraints of the Floquet analysis and reproduces the established experimental, theoretical, and computational benchmark results on transition up to the breakdown stage. The method matches or exceeds the demonstrated capabilities of current spatial Navier-Stokes solvers at a small fraction of their computational cost. Recent applications include studies on localized or distributed receptivity and prediction of transition in model environments for realistic engineering problems. This report describes the basis, intricacies, and some applications of the PSE methodology.

Herbert, Thorwald↗
NASA NTRS2012

In-Situ Nondestructive Evaluation of Kevlar(Registered Trademark)and Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composite Micromechanics for Improved Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Health Monitoring

NASA has been faced with recertification and life extension issues for epoxy-impregnated Kevlar 49 (K/Ep) and carbon (C/Ep) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) used in various systems on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station, respectively. Each COPV has varying criticality, damage and repair histories, time at pressure, and pressure cycles. COPVs are of particular concern due to the insidious and catastrophic burst-before-leak failure mode caused by stress rupture (SR) of the composite overwrap. SR life has been defined [1] as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress level(s), time at stress level(s), and associated environment. SR has none of the features of predictability associated with metal pressure vessels, such as crack geometry, growth rate and size, or other features that lend themselves to nondestructive evaluation (NDE). In essence, the variability or surprise factor associated with SR cannot be eliminated. C/Ep COPVs are also susceptible to impact damage that can lead to reduced burst pressure even when the amount of damage to the COPV is below the visual detection threshold [2], thus necessitating implementation of a mechanical damage control plan [1]. Last, COPVs can also fail prematurely due to material or design noncompliance. In each case (SR, impact or noncompliance), out-of-family behavior is expected leading to a higher probability of failure at a given stress, hence, greater uncertainty in performance. For these reasons, NASA has been actively engaged in research to develop NDE methods that can be used during post-manufacture qualification, in-service inspection, and in-situ structural health monitoring. Acoustic emission (AE) is one of the more promising NDE techniques for detecting and monitoring, in real-time, the strain energy release and corresponding stress-wave propagation produced by actively growing flaws and defects in composite materials [3,4,5,6,7,8]. To gain further insight into the mechanisms responsible for composite rupture, broadband modal acoustic emission analysis was used. Also, since AE data reduction proved to be very time consuming, specialized data reduction software was written to automate the process.

Waller, Jess↗
NASA NTRS2016

Authigenesis/Diagenesis of the Murray Formation Mudstone in Gale Crater, Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity has been exploring sedimentary deposits in Gale crater since August, 2012. The rover has traversed up section through approximately 150 m of sedimentary rocks deposited in fluvial, deltaic, and lacustrine environments (Bradbury group and overlying Mount Sharp group). The Murray formation lies at the base of the Mt. Sharp group and has been interpreted to be a finely laminated mudstone likely deposited in a subaqueous lacustrine environment. Four drill samples from several elevations in the Murray fm have been acquired by the rover's sampling system and delivered to the CheMin XRD instrument. The lower section of the Murray fm contains 2:1 phyllosilicate(s), hematite, jarosite, XRD amorphous materials, and primary basaltic minerals. Further up section, the Murray fm contains magnetite, cristobalite, tridymite, abundant Si-rich XRD amorphous materials along with plagioclase and K-feldspars. Murray formation materials appear to have been altered under an open hydrologic system based on the bulk chemistry of these materials measured by the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS). The 2:1 phyllosilicate only occurs in the lowermost section of the Murray fm and may be detrital or formed during authigenesis of Murray fm materials, similar to the Fe-saponite and magnetite detected in a mudstone in the Yellowknife Bay fm near Curiosity's landing site (stratigraphically at the base of the Bradbury group). The occurrence of jarosite and hematite in the lower section indicates an acidic diagenetic event. These phases may have formed via several acidic alteration mechanisms, including (1) oxidative weathering of mafic igneous rocks containing sulfides; (2) sulfuric acid weathering of Fe-bearing phases; and (3) near-neutral pH subsurface solutions rich in Fe2(+) that were rapidly oxidized to Fe3(+), which produced excess acidity. The transition from abundant hematite in the lowermost Murray fm to magnetite moving up section may indicate changes in lake chemistry, i.e., variable redox conditions, possibly during authigenesis or subsequent diagenetic events. Tridymite, a high temperature mineral, (and possibly cristobalite) is detrital, potentially deposited in a lake from a distal silicic volcanic rock source or from crustal materials present prior to the Gale Crater impact event. Abundant Si-rich XRD amorphous materials in the upper sections of the Murray fm may be detrital or an aqueous alteration product of primary igneous phases and phyllosilicates. Curiosity's science team is still deciphering the authigenesis and diagenetic events that formed the Murray fm. The mineralogy and geochemistry of the formation suggest a complicated history with several (many?) episodes of aqueous alteration under a variety of environmental conditions.

Ming, D. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term, large-scale experiment reveals the effects of seed limitation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance on restoration of plant communities in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecological restoration is essential for maintaining biodiversity in the face of dynamic, global changes in climate, human land use, and disturbance regimes. Effective restoration requires understanding bottlenecks in plant community recovery that exist today, while recognizing that these bottlenecks may relate to complex histories of environmental change. Such understanding has been a challenge because few long-term, well-replicated experiments exist to decipher the demographic processes influencing recovery for numerous species against the backdrop of multiyear variation in climate and management. Here we address this challenge through a long-term and geographically expansive experiment in longleaf pine savannas, an imperiled ecosystem and biodiversity hotspot in the southeastern United States. Using 48 sites at three locations spanning 480 km, the 8-y experiment manipulated initial seed arrival for 24 herbaceous plant species and presence of competitors to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management actions (e.g., prescribed burning) on plant establishment and persistence. Adding seeds increased plant establishment of many species. Cool and wet climatic conditions, low tree density, and reduced litter depth also promoted establishment. Once established, most species persisted for the duration of the 8-y experiment. Plant traits were most predictive when tightly coupled to the process of establishment. Our results illustrate how seed additions can restore plant diversity and how interannual climatic variation affects the dynamics of plant communities across a large region. The significant effects of temperature and precipitation inform how future climate may affect restoration and conservation via large-scale changes in the fundamental processes of establishment and persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Modeling Investigation of Thermal and Strain Induced Recovery and Nonlinear Hardening in Potential Based Viscoplasticity

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and the complementary dissipation potentials were chosen such that a complete potential based multiaxial, isothermal, viscoplastic model was obtained. This model in general possesses three internal state variables (two scalars associated with dislocation density and one tensor associated with dislocation motion) both thermal and dynamic recovery mechanisms, and nonlinear kinematic hardening. This general model, although possessing associated flow and evolutionary laws, is shown to emulate three distinct classes of theories found in the literature, by modification of the driving threshold function F. A parametric study was performed on a specialized nondimensional multiaxial form containing only a single tensorial internal state variable (i.e., internal stress). The study was conducted with the idea of examining the impact of including a strain-induced recovery mechanism and the compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, on the uniaxial and multiaxial response. One important finding was that inclusion of strain recovery provided the needed flexibility in modeling stress-strain and creep response of metals at low homologous temperatures, without adversely affecting the high temperature response. Furthermore, for nonproportional loading paths, the inclusion of the compliance operator had a significant influence on the multiaxial response, but had no influence on either uniaxial or proportional load histories.

Arnold, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Quantitative Hydroclimatic Context for the European Great Famine of 1315–1317

The European Great Famine of 1315–1317 triggered one of the worst population collapses in European history and ranks as the single worst European famine in mortality as a proportion of population. Historical records point to torrential rainfall, land saturation, crop failure, and prolonged flooding as important causes of the famine. Here we use the tree-ring based Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) to show that the average of each growing season preceding the Great Famine years (1314–1316) was the fifth wettest over Europe from 1300 to 2012 C.E. The spatial and temporal characteristics of our OWDA-estimated anomalies are in excellent agreement with available historical accounts. We also characterize a mode of European hydroclimate variability that is associated with the Great Famine, which we term the “Great Famine mode.” This mode emerges as the leading mode of European hydroclimate variability from 1300–2012 and is strongly associated with extreme wet and dry events in Europe over the last millennium.

Environmental impact↗