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NASA NTRS2002

Regaining Lost Separation in a Piloted Simulation of Autonomous Aircraft Operations

NASA is currently investigating a new concept of operations for the National Airspace System, designed to improve capacity while maintaining or improving current levels of safety. This concept, known as Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM), allows appropriately equipped autonomous aircraft to maneuver freely for flight optimization while resolving conflicts with other traffic and staying out of special use airspace and hazardous weather. While Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) tools would normally allow pilots to resolve conflicts before they become hazardous, evaluation of system performance in sudden, near-term conflicts is needed in order to determine concept feasibility. If an acceptable safety level can be demonstrated in these situations, then operations may be conducted with lower separation minimums. An experiment was conducted in NASA Langley s Air Traffic Operations Lab to address issues associated with resolving near-term conflicts and the potential use of lower separation minimums. Sixteen commercial airline pilots flew a total of 32 traffic scenarios that required them to use prototype ASAS tools to resolve close range pop-up conflicts. Required separation standards were set at either 3 or 5 NM lateral spacing, with 1000 ft vertical separation being used for both cases. Reducing the lateral separation from 5 to 3 NM did not appear to increase operational risk, as indicated by the proximity to the intruder aircraft. Pilots performed better when they followed tactical guidance cues provided by ASAS than when they didn't follow the guidance. As air-air separation concepts are evolved, further studies will consider integration issues between ASAS and existing Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems (ACAS).These types of non-normal events will require the ASAS to provide effective alerts and resolutions prior to the time that an Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS) would give a Resolution Advisory (RA). When an RA is issued, a pilot must take immediate action in order to avoid a potential near miss. The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) II currently functions as an ACAS aboard commercial aircraft. Depending on the own aircraft s altitude, TCAS only issues RA s 15-35 seconds prior to the Closest Point of Approach (CPA). Prior to an RA, DAG-TM pilots operating autonomous aircraft must rely solely on ASAS for resolution guidance. An additional area of DAG-TM concept feasibility relates to a potential reduction in separation standards. Lower separation standards are likely needed in order to improve NAS efficiency and capacity. Current separation minimums are based in large part on the capabilities of older radar systems. Safety assessments are needed to determine the feasibility of reduced separation minimums. They will give strong consideration to surveillance system performance, including accuracy, integrity, and availability. Candidate surveillance systems include Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and multi-lateration systems. Considering studies done for Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums (RVSM) operations, it is likely that flight technical errors will also be considered. In addition to a thorough evaluation of surveillance system performance, a potential decision to lower the separation standards should also take operational considerations into account. An ASAS Safety Assessment study identified improper maneuvering in response to a conflict (due to ambiguous or improper resolution commands or a pilot s failure to comply with the resolution) as a potential safety risk. If near-term conflicts with lower separation minimums were determined to be more challenging for pilots, the severity of these risks could be even greater.

Barhydt, Richard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗

NASA NTRS2003

Use of a Prototype Airborne Separation Assurance System for Resolving Near-Term Conflicts During Autonomous Aircraft Operations

Barhydt, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2019

Influence of ABCB1 polymorphisms on the pharmacokinetics and toxicity of lenalidomide in patients with multiple myeloma

Individual diversity in plasma concentrations of lenalidomide occurs despite dosage modifications based on creatinine clearance (CCr), which can lead to unexpected toxicity. We have previously identified a cutoff value of area under the concentration–time curve (AUC{sub 0–24}) for lenalidomide to avoid severe toxicity. Here, we investigated the association between ABCB1 polymorphisms and pharmacokinetics of lenalidomide in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) treated with lenalidomide and dexamethasone. Plasma concentrations of lenalidomide were analyzed using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Genotyping for ABCB1 1236C>T, 2677G>A/T, and 3435C>T polymorphisms was performed, and the effects of ABCB1 polymorphisms on AUC{sub 0–24} for lenalidomide were compared in 36 patients with MM who were administered lenalidomide according to the drug label based on CCr. Genotyping analysis showed that although there were no differences in AUC{sub 0–24} in 1236C>T and 2677G>A/T polymorphisms. AUC{sub 0–24} was significantly higher in patients with the T allele of 3435C>T (n = 15) than in those without (n = 21) (median 6324.6 ng h/mL vs. 2857.4 ng h/mL, p = 0.028). The AUC{sub 0–24} value exceeded the aforementioned cutoff value in 95% of the patients with the T allele of 3435C>T but in 60% with C/C genotype (p = 0.013). Multivariate logistic analysis confirmed the significance of T allele of ABCB1 3435C>T as a factor due to which the AUC{sub 0–24} cutoff value was exceeded (hazard ratio of 15.0, p = 0.019). We show that lenalidomide pharmacokinetics is influenced by the ABCB1 3435C>T polymorphism, which could be useful to individualize dosage design and reduce unexpected toxicity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Diagnostics for machine protection of DEMO

DEMO aims to (i) integrate, demonstrate and validate all relevant technology necessary to convert fusion energy to electrical energy and (ii) that the machine and its operations are economically and environmentally acceptable. To maintain the efficiency and availability of the machine, there are several physics and combined physics/technology issues as well as the engineering issues. Machine Protection (also known as Protection of Investment) addresses both the risks to plant (to avoid costly repair or replacement) and the risks to normal operating time (to avoid loss of productivity and the return on investment). The plasma-related Machine Protection issues involve measurement and control of plasma stability, plasma purity, and plasma-wall interactions. Machine Protection aims to avoid hitting catastrophic limits by using early warning alarm systems, and controlled termination or avoidance, involving coordinated actions of the magnets, gas and auxiliary heating or current-drive systems. This article outlines the key processes, some of which are used in present-day tokamaks and some of which are new specifically for DEMO (e.g. First wall and divertor power handling) and reveals the need to research and develop new science and technology for Machine Protections in DEMO's high radiation and thermal fields. This work was funded by the RCUK Energy Programme under grant EP/I501045 and the European Communities under the contract of Association between EURATOM and CCFE and conducted partly under EFDA PPPT (WP13-DAS04). The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include [1]: • Improved management of complex development • Reduced risk in the development process • Improved cost management • Improved design decisions With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community also can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative [2, 3]. These include the following: • Model viewpoints that promote rapid and systematic assessment of requirements coverage, hazard tagging and risk management • Embedded safety assessments for launch vehicles • Deployment of model assisted development of reliability products - Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) and Fault Trees • Test Planning • Validation and Verification of complex functions • Support of Assurance Case development for complex systems In addition, while there are benefits to be harvested, there is a realization that these do not come without effort and cost. Enabling model-based approaches requires structure, not only in an organizational context, but in a modeling context as well. There can be a steep learning curve and costs associated to train skilled modelers. But, on the other hand, not all of the assurance community need to be modelers. Models themselves must conform to ontologies that enable assurance. This places constraints upon the models and modelers. Optimums have yet to be developed where resources and constraints on modeling must be traded off in the organization and modeling efforts for projects. A number of barriers need to be overcome, as well, which pose challenges to the developers of the software that supports MBSE/MBMA. Information and data must be made to flow seamlessly through the life cycle. Because there is a wide variety of tools used in the community, to avoid the problems of the past of silos, delays, and diverging interests, information should flow among these tools to support the “single source of truth” paradigm of MBSE. This will greatly facilitate MBMA and advancement of assurance functions.

Evans, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Hazard Analysis Integrator

Hazard analysis addresses hazards that arise in the design, development, manufacturing, construction, facilities, transportation, operations and disposal activities associated with hardware, software, maintenance, operations and environments. An integrated hazard is an event or condition that is caused by or controlled by multiple systems, elements, or subsystems. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is especially daunting and ambitious for large, complex systems such as NASA s Constellation program which incorporates program, systems and element components that impact others (International Space Station, public, International Partners, etc.). An appropriate IHA should identify all hazards, causes, controls and verifications used to mitigate the risk of catastrophic loss of crew, vehicle and/or mission. Unfortunately, in the current age of increased technology dependence, there is the tendency to sometimes overlook the necessary and sufficient qualifications of the integrator, that is, the person/team that identifies the parts, analyzes the architectural structure, aligns the analysis with the program plan and then communicates/coordinates with large and small components, each contributing necessary hardware, software and/or information to prevent catastrophic loss. As viewed from both Challenger and Columbia accidents, lack of appropriate communication, management errors and lack of resources dedicated to safety were cited as major contributors to these fatalities. From the accident reports, it would appear that the organizational impact of managers, integrators and safety personnel contributes more significantly to mission success and mission failure than purely technological components. If this is so, then organizations who sincerely desire mission success must put as much effort in selecting managers and integrators as they do when designing the hardware, writing the software code and analyzing competitive proposals. This paper will discuss the necessary and sufficient requirements of one of the significant contributors to mission success, the IHA integrator. Discussions will be provided to describe both the mindset required as well as deleterious assumptions/behaviors to avoid when integrating within a large scale system.

Morris, A. Terry↗

DOE OSTI2018

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

Highlights: • The study projects future heat-related mortality risk in 51 major cities in China. • The projections are based on high resolution climate and population projections. • Future heat mortality risk is likely to be considerable under all emission scenarios. • Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk. Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041–2060) relative to 1970–2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300–43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200–36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300–29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800–14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200–40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Terminal weather information management

Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

Lee, Alfred T.↗

DOE OSTI2014

A compact and accurate semi-global potential energy surface for malonaldehyde from constrained least squares regression

We present a new approach to semi-global potential energy surface fitting that uses the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) constrained least squares procedure to exploit an extremely flexible form for the potential function, while at the same time controlling the risk of overfitting and avoiding the introduction of unphysical features such as divergences or high-frequency oscillations. Drawing from a massively redundant set of overlapping distributed multi-dimensional Gaussian functions of inter-atomic separations we build a compact full-dimensional surface for malonaldehyde, fit to explicitly correlated coupled cluster CCSD(T)(F12*) energies with a root mean square deviations accuracy of 0.3%–0.5% up to 25 000 cm{sup −1} above equilibrium. Importance-sampled diffusion Monte Carlo calculations predict zero point energies for malonaldehyde and its deuterated isotopologue of 14 715.4(2) and 13 997.9(2) cm{sup −1} and hydrogen transfer tunnelling splittings of 21.0(4) and 3.2(4) cm{sup −1}, respectively, which are in excellent agreement with the experimental values of 21.583 and 2.915(4) cm{sup −1}.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

Analyzing Malaysians’ perception of risk in developing radiological and nuclear crisis communication framework

Crisis communication is an indicator of a sustaining public normalcy that serves to control and decrease any untoward situations during disasters’ meltdown. Prior findings highlighted that 25.85 percent of arising organizational disputes can be resolved using public announcements and an enhancement of public awareness through avoiding related dissatisfactions, disorders and untoward circumstances during radiation and nuclear emergencies. Hence, in this paper, we are interrogating Malaysians on their perception of risk regarding to radiation and nuclear disasters and emergencies. The principal aim is to identify the relationship between the IAEA’s initiated risk perception characteristics and the content of the respective public acceptance reports. Those relationships are described and analyzed into a network diagram using the ATLAS.ti software consisting of Clustering and C-Coefficient analyses. This diagram identifies the main variables relating to significant characteristics of risk perception. Future studies should further evaluate the intensity of public opinion against the suggested constructs of executing a thorough and structured risk management mechanism, to advance public trust as well as crisis communication.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air quality and health impacts of the 2020 wildfires in California

Abstract Background Wildfires in 2020 ravaged California to set the annual record of area burned to date. Clusters of wildfires in Northern California surrounded the Bay Area covering the skies with smoke and raising the air pollutant concentrations to hazardous levels. This study uses the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research database and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model to estimate the effects of wildfire emissions on air quality during the period from August 16 to October 28 of 2020. In addition, low-cost sensor data for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from the PurpleAir network is used to enhance modeled PM 2.5 concentrations. The resulting impacts on ozone and PM 2.5 are used to quantify the health impacts caused by wildfires using the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition. Results Wildfire activity significantly increased direct PM 2.5 emissions and emissions of PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Direct PM 2.5 emissions surged up to 38 times compared to an average day. Modeling results indicated that wildfires alone led to a rise in ozone daily maximum 8-h average by up to 10 ppb and exceeded PM 2.5 air quality standards in numerous locations by up to 10 times. While modeled PM 2.5 concentrations were lower than measurements, correcting these with PurpleAir data improved the accuracy. The correction using PurpleAir data increased estimates of wildfire-induced mortality due to PM 2.5 exposure by up to 16%. Conclusions The increased hospital admissions and premature mortality attributed to wildfires were found to be comparable to the health impacts avoided by strategies aimed at meeting ozone and PM2.5 air quality standards. This suggests that widespread wildfire emissions can negate years of efforts dedicated to controlling air pollution. The integration of low-cost sensor data proved invaluable in refining the estimates of health impacts from PM2.5 resulting from wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Signals Measure Neuronal Activity in the Cortex

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is an emerging optical neuroimaging technology that indirectly measures neuronal activity in the cortex via neurovascular coupling. It quantifies hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]) and thus measures the same hemodynamic response as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), but is portable, non-confining, relatively inexpensive, and is appropriate for long-duration monitoring and use at the bedside. Like fMRI, it is noninvasive and safe for repeated measurements. Patterns of [Hb] changes are used to classify cognitive state. Thus, fNIRS technology offers much potential for application in operational contexts. For instance, the use of fNIRS to detect the mental state of commercial aircraft operators in near real time could allow intelligent flight decks of the future to optimally support human performance in the interest of safety by responding to hazardous mental states of the operator. However, many opportunities remain for improving robustness and reliability. It is desirable to reduce the impact of motion and poor optical coupling of probes to the skin. Such artifacts degrade signal quality and thus cognitive state classification accuracy. Field application calls for further development of algorithms and filters for the automation of bad channel detection and dynamic artifact removal. This work introduces a novel adaptive filter method for automated real-time fNIRS signal quality detection and improvement. The output signal (after filtering) will have had contributions from motion and poor coupling reduced or removed, thus leaving a signal more indicative of changes due to hemodynamic brain activations of interest. Cognitive state classifications based on these signals reflect brain activity more reliably. The filter has been tested successfully with both synthetic and real human subject data, and requires no auxiliary measurement. This method could be implemented as a real-time filtering option or bad channel rejection feature of software used with frequency domain fNIRS instruments for signal acquisition and processing. Use of this method could improve the reliability of any operational or real-world application of fNIRS in which motion is an inherent part of the functional task of interest. Other optical diagnostic techniques (e.g., for NIR medical diagnosis) also may benefit from the reduction of probe motion artifact during any use in which motion avoidance would be impractical or limit usability.

Harrivel, Angela↗

NASA NTRS2013

Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Signals Measure Neuronal Activity in the Cortex

Harrivel, Angela↗

NASA NTRS2010

Progress in Development of the Axel Rovers

Progress has been made in the development of a family of robotic land vehicles having modular and minimalist design features chosen to impart a combination of robustness, reliability, and versatility. These vehicles at earlier stages of development were described in two previous NASA Tech Briefs articles: "Reconfigurable Exploratory Robotic Vehicles" (NPO-20944), Vol. 25, No. 7 (July 2001), page 56; and "More About Reconfigurable Exploratory Robotic Vehicles" (NPO-30890), Vol. 33, No. 8 (August 2009), page 40. Conceived for use in exploration of the surfaces of Mars and other remote planets, these vehicles could also be adapted to terrestrial applications, including exploration of volcanic craters or other hostile terrain, military reconnaissance, inspection of hazardous sites, and searching for victims of earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, or mining accidents. In addition, simplified versions of these vehicles might be marketable as toys. The most basic module in this family of reconfigurable robots is the Axel rover, which has a cylindrical body with two main wheels and a trailing link. Inside its body are three motors and associated mechanisms for driving the two wheels and for rotating the link 360 around its symmetrical body. The actuated link serves several purposes: It is used as a lever arm to react to the wheels thrust to move Axel in multiple directions. It is used to rotate the Axel housing in order to tilt, to the desired angle, any sensors and instruments mounted on or in the Axel housing. It provides an alternative mobility mode, which is primarily used in its tethered configuration. Turn ing the link into the ground in lieu of driving the wheels causes the Axel housing and wheels to roll as a unit and thereby leads to a tumbling motion along the ground. With a tether mounted around Axel s cylindrical body, the link serves as a winch mechanism to reel and unreel the tether raising and lowering Axel over steep and vertical surfaces (Figure 1). Sensors, computation, and communication modules are also housed inside Axel s body. A pair of stereo vision cameras provides three-dimensional view for autonomous navigation and avoiding obstacles. Inertial sensors determine the tilt of the robot and are used for estimating its motion. In a fully developed version, power would be supplied by rechargeable batteries aboard Axel; at the time of reporting the information for this article, power was supplied from an external source via a cable. In and of itself, the Axel rover is fully capable of traversing and sampling terrains on planetary surfaces. By use of only the two main wheel actuators and the caster link actuator, Axel can be made to follow an arbitrary path, turn in place, and operate upside- down or right-side-up. If operated in a tethered configuration, as shown in Figure 1, it can be made to move down and up a steep crater wall, descend from an overhang to a cave, and ascend from the cave back to the overhang, all by use of the same three actuators. Such tethered operation could be useful in searching for accident victims or missing persons in mines, caves, and rubble piles. Running the tether through the caster link enhances the stability of Axel and provides a restoring force that keeps the link off the ground for the most part during operation on a steep slope. In its extended configuration, two Axel modules can dock to either side of a payload module to form the four wheeled Axel2 rover (Figure 2). Additional payload and Axel modules can dock to either side of the Axel2 to form the Axel3 rover, extending its payload capacity and its mobility capabilities.

Nesnas, Issa A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Avoiding Complications in Bone and Soft Tissue Ablation

As with percutaneous ablation of tumors in the liver, lungs, and kidneys, ablation of bone and non-visceral soft tissue tumors carries risk, primarily from collateral damage to vital structures in proximity to the target tumor. Certain risks are of particular interest when ablating bone and non-visceral soft tissue tumors, namely neural or skin injury, bowel injury, fracture, and gas embolism from damaged applicators. Ablation of large volume tumors also carries special risk. Many techniques may be employed by the interventional radiologist to minimize complications when treating tumors in the musculoskeletal system. These methods include those to depict, displace, or monitor critical structures. Thus, measures to provide thermoprotection may be active, such as careful ablation applicator placement and use of various displacement techniques, as well as passive, including employment of direct temperature, radiographic, or neurophysiologic monitoring techniques. Cementoplasty should be considered in certain skeletal locations at risk of fracture. Patients treated with large volume tumors should be monitored for renal dysfunction and properly hydrated. Finally, ablation applicators should be cautiously placed in the constrained environment of intact bone.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Designing for Advanced Aerial Mobility: Human-Autonomy Teaming and In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance

The continued growth of aviation shall require new innovative technologies and operational concepts to meet the ever-increasing demands on air transportation. The NASA Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) project focuses on emerging aviation markets, such as Urban Air Mobility (UAM). UAM is defined as “...a safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo transportation within an urban area. It is inclusive of small package delivery and other urban unmanned aerial system services and supports a mix of onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous operations” ([1]). The AAM project emphasizes technology development and validating system-level concepts and solutions in coordination with other NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) projects to enable UAM metro- and micro-plex vertiport and airspace concepts of operations. The NASA AAM research portfolio includes the concepts of Remote Supervisor-in-Command (RSC) and Fleet and Airspace Manager (FAM) as possible human roles for consumer fleet providers. NASA research in RSC is focused on development of guidelines and standards for remote pilots/operators passively and actively controlling a large fleet of autonomous aircraft. For FAM, flight and ground system concepts and technologies to enable high density homogeneous operations at increased scale from vertiport(s), and coordination with other humans in the systems (e.g., UAM urban airspace manager, Air Traffic Control) are key research areas. The envisioned UAM operations are posited to require autonomous systems to enable functions ranging from fleet and resource management to vehicle control. Although automation has become increasingly sophisticated and ubiquitous in civil aviation, autonomy represents a significant evolution in automation, which has generally been limited in functional scope and capability. As autonomy takes on increasing responsibilities, humans and machines will be required to work together in new and different ways [2], rather than traditional design approaches focused on how machines (i.e., autonomy) can do the work of people. The emerging field of human-autonomy teaming (HAT) represents a comprehensive and prioritized research-driven approach to enable the success of future emerging aviation market applications through capabilities and principles that facilitate humans and machine working and thinking better together. The NASA Transformational Tools and Technologies (TTT) Autonomous System (AS) Sub-project was created to assist with the transition into higher levels of autonomy to enable new modes of air transportation, such as UAM. TTT-AS has identified HAT as a key research need to enable UAM while maintaining today’s ultra-safe aviation system safety levels. The latter challenge has been taken up by the NASA System-Wide Safety (SWS) Project, which recognizes that aviation safety, as it evolves, shall require new ways of thinking about safety to include integration of a wide-range of existing and new safety systems and practices, enhanced tools and technologies, increased access to data and data fusion, improved data analysis capabilities, enhanced in-time risk monitoring and detection, hazard prioritization and mitigation, safety assurance decision-support, and in-time integrated system analytics [3].The operational concept of UAM represents a variety of work that has been termed, “work-as-imagined” to characterize the idea that how people think that work is done and how work is actually done are often not the same [4]. To ensure design success and system safety, looking at “work-as-done” provides a comparative approach toward UAM concept and technology design through examination of corresponding analogs found today in aviation (e.g., on-demand operations) and other transportation domains (e.g., port operations). The paper shall discuss various alternative applications with specific focus on airline operation center (AOC) operations, and unmanned aerial system (UAS) command-and-control to inform scaled-versions of FAM and RSC, respectively, and with consideration of the national airspace system contextual environment. The tenets and principles of the HAT field and current NASA research efforts under the TTT-AS sub-project shall also be described. Finally, the SWS sub-project efforts to develop In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) and In-Time Safety Management Systems (IASMS) are discussed in terms of how “in-time” safety assurance may be conceptualized for the on-demand mobility air taxi “work-as-imagined” operational concept [5]. As part of this effort, concepts from the emerging field of resilience engineering, are being studied. Traditional approaches to aviation safety have focused on what can go wrong and how to prevent it. Another approach to thinking about system safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” (protective safety) but also “ensuring that things go right” (productive safety), that enables a system to exhibit the resilient performance [6] necessary for the success of the future aviation system emerging concepts of operations. The paper shall describe efforts focused on how productive safety and resilience may enable a more complete approach to system safety thinking and design of ISSA and IASMS for UAM. Future directions and research needs shall also be discussed.

resilience↗