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At least 649 records · Page 36

Hurricane Intensity Forecasts with a Global Mesoscale Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

It is known that General Circulation Models (GCMs) have insufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. The increasing capabilities of high-end computers (e.g., the NASA Columbia Supercomputer) have changed this. In 2004, the finite-volume General Circulation Model at a 1/4 degree resolution, doubling the resolution used by most of operational NWP center at that time, was implemented and run to obtain promising landfall predictions for major hurricanes (e.g., Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). In 2005, we have successfully implemented the 1/8 degree version, and demonstrated its performance on intensity forecasts with hurricane Katrina (2005). It is found that the 1/8 degree model is capable of simulating the radius of maximum wind and near-eye wind structure, and thereby promising intensity forecasts. In this study, we will further evaluate the model s performance on intensity forecasts of hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl in 2004. Suggestions for further model development will be made in the end.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗

Implementation of Cloud Retrievals for Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Atmospheric Retrievals: Part 1. Description and Characterization of Errors on Trace Gas Retrievals

We develop an approach to estimate and characterize trace gas retrievals in the presence of clouds in high spectral measurements of upwelling radiance in the infrared spectral region (650-2260/cm). The radiance contribution of clouds is parameterized in terms of a set of frequency-dependent nonscattering optical depths and a cloud height. These cloud parameters are retrieved jointly with surface temperature, emissivity, atmospheric temperature, and trace gases such as ozone from spectral data. We demonstrate the application of this approach using data from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and test data simulated with a scattering radiative transfer model. We show the value of this approach in that it results in accurate estimates of errors for trace gas retrievals, and the retrieved values improve over the initial guess for a wide range of cloud conditions. Comparisons are made between TES retrievals of ozone, temperature, and water to model fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), temperature retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), tropospheric ozone columns from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GEOS-Chem, and ozone retrievals from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). In each of these cases, this cloud retrieval approach does not introduce observable biases into TES retrievals.

aerosols↗

Parameterization of Cloud Droplet Formation in Global Climate Models

An aerosol activation parameterization has been developed based on a generalized representation of aerosol size and composition within the framework of an ascending adiabatic parcel; this allows for parameterizing the activation of chemically complex aerosol with an arbitrary size distribution and mixing state. The new parameterization introduces the concept of"population splitting", in which the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that form droplets are treated as two separate populations; those that have a size close to their critical diameter and those that do not.Explicit consideration of kinetic limitations of droplet growth is introduced. Our treatment of the activation process unravels much of its complexity. As a result of this, a substantial number of conditions of droplet formation can be treated completely free of empirical information or correlations; there are, however, some conditions of droplet activation for which an empirically derived correlation is utilized. Predictions of the parameterization are compared against extensive cloud parcel model simu;lations for a variety of aerosol activation conditions that cover a wide range of chemical variability and CCN concentrations. The parameterization tracks the parcel model simulations closely and robustly. The parameterization presented here is intended to allow for a comprehensive assessment of the aerosol indirect effect in general circulation models.

Nenes, A.↗

Maritime Aerosol Network as a Component of AERONET - First Results and Comparison with Global Aerosol Models and Satellite Retrievals

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. Over 80 cruises were completed through early 2010 with deployments continuing. Measurement areas included various parts of the Atlantic Ocean, the Northern and Southern Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and inland seas. MAN deploys Microtops handheld sunphotometers and utilizes a calibration procedure and data processing traceable to AERONET. Data collection included areas that previously had no aerosol optical depth (AOD) coverage at all, particularly vast areas of the Southern Ocean. The MAN data archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we present results of AOD measurements over the oceans, and make a comparison with satellite AOD retrievals and model simulations.

Smirnov, A.↗

Incorporation of the Mass Concentration and the New Snow Albedo Schemes into the Global Forecasting Model, GEOS-5 and the Impact of the New Schemes over Himalayan Glaciers

Recently the issue on glacier retreats comes up and many factors should be relevant to the issue. The absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) are considered to be one of the factors. After they deposited onto the snow surface, it will reduce snow albedo (called snow darkening effect) and probably contribute to further melting of glacier. The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) has developed at NASA/GSFC. However, the original snowpack model used in the land surface model in the GEOS-5 did not consider the snow darkening effect. Here we developed the new snow albedo scheme which can consider the snow darkening effect. In addition, another scheme on calculating mass concentrations on the absorbing aerosols in snowpack was also developed, in which the direct aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model in the GEOS-5 were used. The scheme has been validated with the observed data obtained at backyard of the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, by Dr. Teruo Aoki (Meteorological Research Institute) et aL including me. The observed data was obtained when I was Ph.D. candidate. The original GEOS-5during 2007-2009 over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau region showed more reductions of snow than that of the new GEOS-5 because the original one used lower albedo settings. On snow cover fraction, the new GEOS-5 simulated more realistic snow-covered area comparing to the MODIS snow cover fraction. The reductions on snow albedo, snow cover fraction, and snow water equivalent were seen with statistically significance if we consider the snow darkening effect comparing to the results without the snow darkening effect. In the real world, debris cover, inside refreezing process, surface flow of glacier, etc. affect glacier mass balance and the simulated results immediately do not affect whole glacier retreating. However, our results indicate that some surface melting over non debris covered parts of the glacier would be explained by the snow darkening effect. Further discussion and observations are necessary to assess the glacier issue.

Yasunari, Teppei↗

Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. Recent advancements in solar observations and numerical simulations provide a basis for developing physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. The goal is to develop new strategic capabilities that enable characterization and prediction of the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. The integration of first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is a new, transformative step in space weather research and prediction. This approach will substantially enhance an existing model of magnetic flux distribution and transport developed by the Air Force Research Lab. The development plan is to use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to develop Coupled Models for Emerging flux Simulations (CMES) that couples three existing models: (1) an MHD formulation with the anelastic approximation to simulate the deep convection zone (FSAM code), (2) an MHD formulation with full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and a detailed description of radiative transfer and thermodynamics to simulate near-surface convection and the photosphere (Stagger code), and (3) an MHD formulation with full, compressible Navier-Stokes equations and an approximate description of radiative transfer and heating to simulate the corona (Module in BATS-R-US). CMES will enable simulations of the emergence of magnetic structures from the deep convection zone to the corona. Finally, a plan will be summarized on the development of a Flux Emergence Prediction Tool (FEPT) in which helioseismology-derived data and vector magnetic maps are assimilated into CMES that couples the dynamics of magnetic flux from the deep interior to the corona.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

meteorological parameters↗

Representation of Nucleation Mode Microphysics in a Global Aerosol Model with Sectional Microphysics

In models, nucleation mode (1 nm<Dp <10 nm) particle microphysics can be represented explicitly with aerosol microphysical processes or can be parameterized to obtain the growth and survival of nuclei to the model's lower size boundary. This study investigates how the representation of nucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively.We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10 min versus a 1 h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e., 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e., 1 nm boundary) with the 10 min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles (J10) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafinemode (10 nm≤Dp ≤70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e., 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine-mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e., 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 (Dp ≥10 nm) and CCN(0.2 %) (i.e., CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above ∼700 hPa where nucleation contributes most strongly to CN10 concentrations. The lowermost-layer CN10 is substantially improved with the 3 nm boundary (compared to 10 nm) in most areas. The overprediction in CN10 with the 3 nm and 10 nm boundaries can be explained by the overprediction of J10 or J3 with the parameterized microphysics, possibly due to the instantaneous growth rate assumption in the survival and growth parameterization. The errors in CN10 predictions are sensitive to the choice of the lower size boundary but not to the choice of the time step applied to the microphysical processes. The spatial distribution of CCN(0.2 %) with the 3 nm boundary is almost identical to that with the 1 nm boundary, but that with the 10 nm boundary can differ more than 10-40% in some areas. We found that the deviation in the 10 nm simulations is partly due to the longer time step (i.e., 1 h time step used in the 10 nm simulations compared to 10 min time step used in the benchmark simulations), but, even with the same time step, the 10 nm cutoff showed noticeably higher errors than the 3 nm cutoff. In conclusion, we generally recommend using a lower diameter boundary of 3 nm for studies focused on aerosol indirect effects but down to 1 nm boundary for studies focused on CN10 predictions or nucleation.

microphysics↗

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗

Correlation Between Soil Moisture and Dust Emissions: An Investigation for Global Climate Modeling

This work is using the newly available NASA SMAP soil moisture measurement data to evaluate its impact on the atmospheric dust emissions. Dust is an important component of atmospheric aerosols, which affects both climate and air quality. In this work, we focused on semi-desert regions, where dust emissions show seasonal variations due to soil moisture changes, i.e. in Sahel of Africa. We first identified three Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites in the Sahel (IER_Cinzana, Banizoumbou, and Zinder_Airport). We then utilized measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine mode fraction, size distribution, and single-scattering albedo and its wave-length dependence to select dust plumes from the available measurements We matched the latitude and longitude of the AERONET station to the corresponding SMAP data cell in the years 2015 and 2016, and calculated their correlation coefficient. Additionally, we looked at the correlation coefficient with a three-day and a five-day shift to check the impact of soil moisture on dust plumes with some time delay. Due to the arid nature of Banizoumbou and Zinder_Airport, no correlation was found to exist between local soil moisture and dust aerosol load. While IER_Cinzana had soil moisture levels above the satellite threshold of 0.02cm3/cm3, R-value approaching zero indicated no presence of a correlation. On the other hand, Ilorin demonstrated a significant negative correlation between aerosol optical depth and soil moisture. When isolating the analysis to Ilorin's dry season, a negative correlation of -0.593 was the largest dust-isolated R-value recorded, suggesting that soil moisture is driven the dust emission in this semi-desert region during transitional season.

climate↗

On the Performance of Global Magnetohydrodynamic Models in the Earth's Magnetosphere

We study the performance of four magnetohydrodynamic models (BATS-R-US, GUMICS, LFM, Open GGCM) in the Earths magnetosphere. Using the Community Coordinated Modeling Centers Run-on-Request system, we compare model predictions with magnetic field measurements of the Cluster, Geotail and Wind spacecraft during a multiple substorm event. We also compare model cross polar cap potential results to those obtained from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network(SuperDARN) and the model magnetopause standoff distances to an empirical magnetopause model. The correlation coefficient (CC) and prediction efficiency (PE) metrics are used to objectively evaluate model performance quantitatively. For all four models, the best performance outside geosynchronous orbit is found on the dayside. Generally, the performance of models decreases steadily down stream from the Earth. On the dayside most CCs are above 0.5 with CCs for Bx and Bz close to 0.9 for three out of four models. In the magnetotail at a distance of about -130 Earth radii from Earth, the prediction efficiency of all models is below that of using an average value for the prediction with the exception of Bz. Bx is most often best predicted and correlated both on the dayside and the nightside close to the Earth whereas in the far tail the CC and PE for Bz are substantially higher than other components in all models. We also find that increasing the resolution or coupling an additional physics module does notautomatically increase the model performance in the magnetosphere.

geomagnetic tail↗

Spaceborne Remote Sensing of Aerosol Type: Global Distribution, Model Evaluation and Translation into Chemical Speciation

It is essential to evaluate and refine aerosol classification methods applied to passive satellite remote sensing. We have developed an aerosol classification algorithm (called Specified Clustering and Mahalanobis Classification, SCMC) that assigns an aerosol type to multi-parameter retrievals by spaceborne, airborne or ground-based passive remote sensing instruments [1]. The aerosol types identified by our scheme are pure dust, polluted dust, urban-industrialdeveloped economy, urban-industrialdeveloping economy, dark biomass smoke, light biomass smoke and pure marine. We apply the SCMC method to inversions from the ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET [2]) and retrievals from the space-borne Polarization and Directionality of Earths Reflectances instrument (POLDER, [3]). The POLDER retrievals that we use differ from the standard POLDER retrievals [4] as they make full use of multi-angle, multispectral polarimetric data [5]. We analyze agreement in the aerosol types inferred from both AERONET and POLDER and evaluate GEOS-Chem [6] simulations over the globe. Finally, we use in-situ observations from the SEAC4RS airborne field experiment to bridge the gap between remote sensing-inferred qualitative SCMC aerosol types and their corresponding quantitative chemical speciation. We apply the SCMC method to airborne in-situ observations from the NASA Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment (LARGE, [7]) and the Differential Aerosol Sizing and Hygroscopicity Spectrometer Probe (DASH-SP, [8]) instruments; we then relate each coarsely defined SCMC type to a sum of percentage of individual aerosol species, using in-situ observations from the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS, [9]), the Soluble Acidic Gases and Aerosol (SAGA, [10]), and the High - Resolution Time - of - Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR ToF AMS, [11]).

airborne↗

Analyzing Seasonal Forcing Mechanisms of the Martian Polar Warming with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

The meridional transport of heat, momentum, water, dust, trace species and gases is critical for the control of Mars’ climate. Though the nature and structure of the mean meridional circulation has been previously studied, questions remain regarding the seasonal forcing mechanisms, and the implications on the combined thermal and dynamical response for Mars’ climate. A useful diagnostic of the mean meridional circulation and transport in the middle atmosphere is polar warming.

Brecht, A. S.↗

Remote Sensing of Seasonal and Annual Variation of Equatorial New Production: A Model for Global Estimates

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are strongly correlated with surface nitrate concentrations in coastal upwelling regions. Upwelling also occurs in the equatorial Pacific; correlations between temperature and nitrate concentration are strong. The University of Miami weekly averaged Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST data for October 1986 through June 1989 have been used to compute surface nitrate concentrations from 90 deg - 180 deg W and from 15 deg S - 15 deg N. The surface areas with nitrate above detection limits are combined with existing nitrate uptake data to give weekly estimates of equatorial new production.

Barder, R.↗