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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of NASA’s Remote-Sensing Capabilities in Coastal Environments

This work represents the second part of a two-part study set up by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) in 2017. The study summarizes a three-year investigation on the feasibility of using satellite remote sensing to monitor emissions of oil and gas operations over the outer continental shelf (OCS) to determine if they have negative impacts on coastal air quality (AQ). The target pollutant is nitrogen dioxide (NO2), for which BOEM conducts regular emissions surveys. The major data source for this report is a May 2019 oceanographic cruise (“SCOAPE” = Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment) conducted in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) off Louisiana with the Research Vessel Point Sur, loaded with a suite of trace-gas analyzers and a direct-sun remote sensor Pandora spectrometer that measures column NO2. The SCOAPE cruise, augmented by in situ NO2 and Pandora measurements at Cocodrie (Louisiana; 29.25° N, 90.66° W) showed that (1) under cloud-free conditions, satellites can detect elevated column NO2 amounts near isolated large platforms and from clusters of smaller operations; (2) satellite (the European Space Agency’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument [TROPOMI]) total column (TC) NO2 agrees well with TC NO2 from ground-based Pandora spectrometers (to 11–18%), with the satellite biased low when pollution levels are higher; (3) in general, NO2 measured in situ and in column amounts by Pandora or TROPOMI is greater over coastal Louisiana than over the OCS; (4) the extent to which Pandora or satellite measurements correlate with surface NO2 is highly variable.

NO2↗
NASA NTRS2007

Potential for Measurement of Trace Volatile Organic Compounds in Closed Environments Using Gas Chromatograph/Differential Mobility Spectrometer

For nearly 3.5 years, the Volatile Organic Analyzer (VOA) has routinely analyzed the International Space Station (ISS) atmosphere for a target list of approximately 20 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Additionally, an early prototype of the VOA collected data aboard submarines in two separate trials. Comparison of the data collected on ISS and submarines showed a surprising similarity in the atmospheres of the two environments. Furthermore, in both cases it was demonstrated that the VOA data can detect hardware issues unrelated to crew health. Finally, it was also clear in both operations that the VOA s size and resource consumption were major disadvantages that would restrict its use in the future. The VOA showed the value of measuring VOCs in closed environments, but it had to be shrunk if it was to be considered for future operations in these environments that are characterized by cramped spaces and limited resources. The Sionex Microanalyzer is a fraction of the VOA s size and this instrument seems capable of maintaining or improving upon the analytical performance of the VOA. The two design improvements that led to a smaller, less complex instrument are the Microanalyzer s use of recirculated air as the gas chromatograph s carrier gas and a micromachined detector. Although the VOA s ion mobility spectrometer and the Microanalyzer s differential mobility spectrometer (DMS) are related detector technologies, the DMS was more amenable to micromachining. This paper will present data from the initial assessment of the Microanalyzer. The instrument was challenged with mixtures that simulated the VOCs typically detected in closed-environment atmospheres.

Limero, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laser-driven collisionless shock acceleration of ions from near-critical plasmas

Here, this paper overviews experimental and numerical results on acceleration of narrow energy spread ion beams by an electrostatic collisionless shockwave driven by 1 μm (Omega EP) and 10 μm (UCLA Neptune Laboratory) lasers in near critical density CH and He plasmas, respectively. Shock waves in CH targets produced high-energy ~50 MeV protons (ΔE/E of ≤30%) and 314 MeV C 6+ ions (ΔE/E of ≤10%). Observation of acceleration of both protons and carbon ions to similar velocities is consistent with reflection of particles off the moving potential of a shock front. For shocks driven by CO 2 laser in a gas jet, ~30 MeV peak in He ion spectrum was detected. Particle-in-cell simulations indicate that regardless of the target further control over its density profile is needed for optimization of accelerated ion beams in part of energy spread, yield and maximum kinetic energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2020

TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): motivations and protocol version 1.0

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼66 % of the Earth's incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.

Thomas Jean Daniel Fauchez↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Power Light Gas Helicon Plasma Source For VASMIR

The VASIMR space propulsion development effort relies on a high power (greater than 10kW) helicon source to produce a dense flowing plasma (H, D and He) target for ion cyclotron resonance (ICR) acceleration of the ions. Subsequent expansion in an expanding magnetic field (magnetic nozzle) converts ion lunetic energy to directed momentum. This plasma source must have critical features to enable an effective propulsion device. First, it must ionize most of the input neutral flux of gas, thus producing a plasma stream with a high degree of ionization for application of ICR power. This avoids propellant waste and potential power losses due to charge exchange. Next, the plasma stream must flow into a region of high magnetic field (approximately 0.5 T) for efficient ICR acceleration. Third, the ratio of input power to plasma flux must be low, providing an energy per ion-electron pair approaching 100 eV. Lastly, the source must be robust and capable of very long life-times (years). In our helicon experiment (VX-10) we have measured a ratio of input gas to plasma flux near 100%. The plasma flows from the helicon region (B approximately 0.1 T) into a region with a peak magnetic field of 0.8 T. The energy input per ion-electron pair has been measured at 300 plus or minus 100 eV. Recent results at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) show an enhanced efficiency mode of operation with a high power density, over 5 kW in a 5 cm diameter tube. Our helicon is presently 9 cm in diameter and operates up to 3.5 kW of input power. An upgrade to a power level of 10 kW is underway. Much of our recent work has been with a Boswell double-saddle antenna design. We are also converting the antenna design to a helical type. With these modifications, we anticipate an improvement in the ionization efficiency. This paper presents the results from scaling the helicon in the VX-10 device from 3.5 to 10 kW. We also compare the operation with a double-saddle to a helical antenna design. Finally, we discuss modeling of these configurations using ORNL's EMIR code.

Squire, J. P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Staged Z-pinch experiment at the double-EAGLE pulsed power facility

The staged Z-pinch is a potential high-energy gain fusion concept where a high atomic number liner implodes on a deuterium target using a pulsed multi-MA current source. Over the past several years this concept has been studied on 0.5–1.0 MA facilities using Ar and Kr gas puffs injected at R = 1.2 cm. Neutron yield up to (2.5 ± 0.34) x 10 10 was measured, Ruskov et al (2023 IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 51 3310–6). Here, in this study, we present experimental results from the 4 MA, 110 ns current rise time Double-EAGLE facility at L3Harris (currently, Fisica Inc.) where a larger radius nozzle created gas density profiles peaked at R = 2.5 cm. Modeling with the MACH2 and FLASH codes indicates that the larger radius allows stronger acceleration of the liner plasma and generation of shock waves that preheat a target plasma layer next to the liner to temperatures $T_i >$1 keV. The resulting counter thermal pressure on the liner plasma limits the growth of the Magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor (MRT) instability at the liner-vacuum boundary and the implosion proceeds in a relatively stable manner. Near bang time the enormous target plasma thermal pressure smoothens the MRT perturbations developed during the earlier implosion stages. Time integrated x-ray pinhole images with cutoff energy of 100 eV confirm that a long (∼3 cm), stable and uniform high energy density plasma column is formed in the final implosion stage. Consistent neutron yield in the 10 10 –10 11 range was measured for both Ar and Kr liners imploding on a deuterium target.

Physics - Plasma physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gen3 Gas Phase System Development and Demonstration (Final Technical Report)

Work undertaken in this project seeks to transform the current baseline technology – which is a collection of related but separately developed components and concepts – into a unified and operating test facility and an accompanying preliminary commercial design. This project is motivated by the primary goal of developing a system to absorb concentrated solar energy and deliver it into thermal energy storage at temperatures above 700°C, thereby enabling integration with a high-efficiency supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle to achieve or exceed a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) target of 6 ¢ per kilowatt-hour electric (kW e -hr). The proposed baseline solution utilizes a high-temperature gas phase (GP) system interfacing with a two-tank particle thermal energy storage (TES) and intermediate heat exchangers to supply sCO 2 at 20-25 megapascals (MPa) and 700°C at the turbine inlet.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Creating Novel Gas Separation Constructs by Manipulating Free-Volume Distributions in Polymer-Grafted Nanoparticles

Polymer membranes are critical to sustainability applications, and in this work we focused on one key application, the efficient separation of gas mixtures. Despite their widespread use, important challenges remain in the use of polymer membranes in this context – i.e., finding membrane materials with selectively improved transport of the desired mixture component(s) while possessing enhanced strength and improved aging behavior relative to the best current benchmarks. The important separation figures of merit are the gas flux, which is proportional to the permeability, P i = D i × S i (Di is the gas diffusivity and S i its solubility coefficient) and selectivity (i.e., gas purity,α ij = P i /P j ). The goal is to simultaneously maximize P i and α ij . Most research to date has empirically targeted the development of new glassy polymers with improved separation performance. These include thermally rearranged (TR) polymers and polymers of intrinsic microporosity (PIMs).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Parametric Study of Carbon Nanotube Production by Laser Ablation Process

Carbon nanotubes form a new class of nanomaterials that are presumed to have extraordinary mechanical, electrical and thermal properties. The single wall nanotubes (SWNTs) are estimated to be 100 times stronger than steel with 1/6th the weight; electrical carrying capacity better than copper and thermal conductivity better than diamond. Applications of these SWNTs include possible weight reduction of aerospace structures, multifunctional materials, nanosensors and nanoelectronics. Double pulsed laser vaporization process produces SWNTs with the highest percentage of nanotubes in the output material. The normal operating conditions include a green laser pulse closely followed by an infrared laser pulse. Lasers ab late a metal-containing graphite target located in a flow tube maintained in an oven at 1473K with argon flow of 100 sccm at a 500 Torr pressure. In the present work a number of production runs were carried out, changing one operating condition at a time. We have studied the effects of nine parameters, including the sequencing of the laser pulses, pulse separation times, laser energy densities, the type of buffer gas used, oven temperature, operating pressure, flow rate and inner flow tube diameters. All runs were done using the same graphite target. The collected nanotube material was characterized by a variety of analytical techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Raman and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA). Results indicate trends that could be used to optimize the process and increase the efficiency of the production process.

Arepalli, Sivaram↗
DOE OSTI2025

The health and indoor environmental quality impacts of residential building envelope retrofits: A literature review

Retrofitting existing buildings to improve energy efficiency is an important strategy to meet increasingly stringent energy efficiency targets. While the primary objective of energy efficiency retrofits is to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, retrofits can also result in non-energy impacts (NEIs), which contribute to decision-making processes and overall value of the retrofit. NEIs have been studied extensively in retrofitted residential buildings; however, these studies have historically grouped passive (i.e., building envelope) and active (i.e., heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and energy system) upgrades, making it difficult to identify the underlying mechanism(s) of action for each NEI and developing effective retrofit strategies, based on occupant need. The purpose of this study was to better account for NEIs, based on a literature review, summarizing the current state of knowledge on NEIs associated with residential building envelope retrofits. We limited our search to health- and indoor environmental quality-related NEIs. The review identified strong evidence that building envelope retrofits improve acoustic comfort, wintertime thermal comfort, and respiratory and cardiovascular health outcomes. IAQ outcomes were mixed, with studies reporting both increases and decreases to indoor contaminant concentrations following retrofits. The strength of the effect was generally governed by pre-retrofit contaminant concentrations and whether indoor concentrations were dominated by indoor or outdoor sources. Most studies evaluating summertime thermal comfort identified increased incidence of summertime overheating; however, none of these studies linked the change in thermal conditions to health outcomes. Recommendations for future work include expanding studies to include more market rate housing and the health impacts of summertime overheating in retrofitted buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

First feedback-controlled divertor detachment in W7-X: Experience from TDU operation and prospects for operation with actively cooled divertor

In the last experimental campaign (OP1.2b) of the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X), boronisation as a mean for first wall conditioning was applied for the first time which led to strongly reduced impurity fluxes from plasma-facing components. Thermal detachment at the uncooled target plates of the test divertor unit (TDU) was reached at higher plasma densities and was accompanied by high recycling of neutrals at the target plate. A feedback control system was established in W7-X to actively control the gas injection (actuator) for plasma fuelling and impurity seeding [3] through the divertors. It allowed very successful stabilisation of the detached plasma condition state as well as mitigation of thermal overloads to some baffle tiles. Different routinely available diagnostic signals were used as input parameters (sensors). We describe the setup of the feedback control system, its performance and provide some example results with the main focus on the development of the control scheme which led to the detachment stabilisation over the entire longest (30 s) high-power discharge at W7-X so far. In view of the achieved very successful detachment stabilisation and the necessity to include simultaneous optimisation of the core performance in the future, the feedback control system is being upgraded for the upcoming campaign (OP2.1) in which the water cooled and hereby inherently steady-state capable divertor has been currently installed. The prospects and some experiment ideas for active detachment control are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tantalum oxide and nitride spectral features from a laser-produced plasma

Here, we report measurements of time-resolved Ta, TaO and TaN emission spectroscopic signatures from a laser-produced plasma. Plasmas were generated using 1064 nm, 6 ns pulses from an Nd:YAG laser focused onto a pure Ta metal target in a gaseous environment with varying percentages of O 2 /N 2 for controlling gas-phase oxidation/plasma chemistry. Time-resolved analysis showed that Ta oxide emission is prominent at later times in plasma evolution, whereas strong atomic emission is present at early times in air. Emission spectral features as a function of O 2 partial pressure showed that TaO emission intensity increases, while the peak intensity of TaO appears earlier with increasing O 2 availability. We also report emission spectra of TaN, and show that plasma chemistry favors TaO formation instead of TaN when O 2 is present in the environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancement of Two Heterogeneous Reactions in the Production of the Medical Isotope 188 W

We report the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions is influenced by kinetic conditions with an emphasis on reactants in different phases to have effective interactions. Optimal interactions of reactants rely on the rational design of the equipment and engineering parameters for the reaction process, especially for the process on a large scale. 188 W production at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory is such an example. In processing the irradiated 186 W metal target for the 188 W product, two of the heterogeneous reactions are essential ones: (1) the gas–solid reaction of O 2 + W to form WO 3 and (2) the gas–liquid reaction of OsO 4 being absorbed by the NaOH sorbent. Better understanding of the two reactions has led to revisions to the design of the quartz reaction vessel (gas–solid reaction) and the scrubbing system (gas–liquid reaction). The optimized quartz vessel resulted in less heating hours, whereas a more efficient OsO 4 scrubbing system ensured that all volatile OsO 4 was qualitatively captured.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relativistic ultrafast electron diffraction at high repetition rates

The ability to resolve the dynamics of matter on its native temporal and spatial scales constitutes a key challenge and convergent theme across chemistry, biology, and materials science. The last couple of decades have witnessed ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) emerge as one of the forefront techniques with the sensitivity to resolve atomic motions. Increasingly sophisticated UED instruments are being developed that are aimed at increasing the beam brightness in order to observe structural signatures, but so far they have been limited to low average current beams. Here, we present the technical design and capabilities of the HiRES (High Repetition-rate Electron Scattering) instrument, which blends relativistic electrons and high repetition rates to achieve orders of magnitude improvement in average beam current compared to the existing state-of-the-art instruments. The setup utilizes a novel electron source to deliver femtosecond duration electron pulses at up to MHz repetition rates for UED experiments. Instrument response function of sub-500 fs is demonstrated with < 100 fs time resolution targeted in future. We provide example cases of diffraction measurements on solid-state and gas-phase samples, including both micro- and nanodiffraction (featuring 100 nm beam size) modes, which showcase the potential of the instrument for novel UED experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Instrumented Capsule Design to Measure Thermal Conductivity in Miniature UO2 Specimens

Numerous separate effects irradiations of miniature nuclear fuel specimens have been conducted in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) under the experimental platform designated as MiniFuel. MiniFuel is a static irradiation capability in which microstructural evolution and fuel performance phenomena are observed during postirradiation examination thereby offering a snapshot of the terminal fuel characteristics. This approach inherently requires fielding an irradiation where the experimental conditions are determined using predictive models and the pertinent outcomes are measured at the end of the test. Static irradiations can provide useful insights to the relationships between fuel performance and the pivotal irradiation conditions, namely temperature and burnup, but the ability to monitor fuel performance in situ would further support fuel development and qualification. To this end, an instrumented experiment design is being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to capture thermal conductivity degradation and fission gas release during HFIR irradiation. These phenomena will be monitored using unique capsule designs that each target a different phenomenon. This paper details the thermal conductivity capsule (TCC) design and its expected performance envelope as determined using computer models. Each TCC will contain a miniature UO2 disc specimen (~0.5 mm thick × 5 mm diameter) sandwiched between metallic slugs with embedded thermocouples. The coupling of in situ temperature measurements, known thermal conductivity of the metallic components, and heat generation rates computed using high-fidelity neutronics models make the thermal conductivity measurement possible. This paper describes the reactor physics and heat transfer models used to predict the capsule’s performance and the methodology for calculating the fuel specimen’s thermal conductivity from the thermocouple measurements.

Gorton, Jacob [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269806083)↗
DOE OSTI2023

South Africa National Cooling Plan

South Africa is committed to preserving the environment and addressing climate change related issues based on science and equity. In 2019, South Africa ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to reduce the consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to simultaneously protect the ozone layer and contribute to mitigating climate change. In 2015, South Africa also signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement to fight against climate change and committed to achieve a “peak, plateau and decline” greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectory at a level between 398 and 614 MtCO2e/year by 20301. In 2021 revised target ranges of 398-510 Mt CO 2 -eq for 2025, and 398-440 Mt CO 2 -eq for 2030 were issued, as well as aspiring to reach a net zero carbon economy by 2050. Addressing the environmental impacts of cooling products converges the objectives of these two treaties. Cooling products are the main source of HFC use and they consume a significant amount of electricity produced from emission intensive coal fired power plants. South Africa’s efforts to mitigate global warming can therefore be amplified if the energy efficiency (EE) of cooling products is improved at the same time a refrigerant transition from HFC is considered. Synergistic actions with respect to sustainable cooling access across sectors will have a higher impact than actions taken in isolation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗