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At least 649 records · Page 36

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of drought events, affecting soil functions including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are driven by growing microorganisms. Yet we know little about microbial responses to drought due to methodological limitations. Here, we estimate microbial growth rates in montane grassland soils exposed to ambient conditions, drought, and potential future climate conditions (i.e., soils exposed to 6 years of elevated temperatures and elevated CO 2 levels). For this purpose, we combined 18 O-water vapor equilibration with quantitative stable isotope probing (termed ‘vapor-qSIP’) to measure taxon-specific microbial growth in dry soils. In our experiments, drought caused >90% of bacterial and archaeal taxa to stop dividing and reduced the growth rates of persisting ones. Under drought, growing taxa accounted for only 4% of the total community as compared to 35% in the controls. Drought-tolerant communities were dominated by specialized members of the Actinobacteriota, particularly the genus Streptomyces. Six years of pre-exposure to future climate conditions (3 °C warming and + 300 ppm atmospheric CO 2 ) alleviated drought effects on microbial growth, through more drought-tolerant taxa across major phyla, accounting for 9% of the total community. Our results provide insights into the response of active microbes to drought today and in a future climate, and highlight the importance of studying drought in combination with future climate conditions to capture interactive effects and improve predictions of future soil-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Argon metastable density and temperature of a 94 GHz microplasma

Laser diode absorption spectroscopy is used to experimentally measure Ar(1s 5 ) metastable density and translational gas temperature within a 94 GHz microplasma. A square two-dimensional photonic crystal (PhC) at this resonance frequency serves to ignite and sustain the plasma from 20 to 200 Torr (2.7 × 10 3 –2.7 × 10 4 Pa) by using millimeter wave power from 300 to 1000 mW. Metastable density within the plasma is estimated from the absorption line shape of the laser traversing the PhC. The metastable density reaches an order of 10 19 m –3 at lower pressure and decreases as pressure increases. From the Lorentzian line shape of the absorption profile at 811.53 nm, the gas temperature is extracted and found to increase from 500 K at 20 Torr to 1300 K at 200 Torr. Furthermore, these data are analyzed and compared with a zero-dimensional plasma model and with previous experimental plasma results at 43 GHz.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parameter Identification for Battery Abuse Reaction Kinetics Models Using DSC Analysis [SWR-23-87]

This code estimates the parameters as inputs for NREL’s abuse reaction kinetics model using Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) experimental data. The parameters for calculating the rates of abuse reactions among battery cell components at elevated temperatures include frequency factor, activation energy, and reaction orders. The least-squared method is employed to fit the reaction model to DSC data. The code is implemented in MATLAB.

Yang, Chuanbo↗

Gauge boson signals at the cosmological collider

We study the production of massive gauge bosons during inflation from the axion-type coupling to the inflaton and the corresponding oscillatory features in the primordial non-Gaussianity. In a window in which both the gauge boson mass and the chemical potential are large, the signal is potentially reachable by near-future large scale structure probes. This scenario covers a new region in oscillation frequency which is not populated by previously known cosmological collider models. We also demonstrate how to properly include the exponential factor and discuss the subtleties in obtaining power dependence of the gauge boson mass in the signal estimate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Role of fast-ion transport manipulating safety factor profile in KSTAR early diverting discharges

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) activity is analyzed for a particular KSTAR discharge category, the main features of which are a high-$q_\mathrm{min}$ and a broad q profile. An interesting finding in this scenario is that a steady-state high-$q_\mathrm{min}$ and broad q profile has been constructed even without a strong off-axis current drive scheme. Time traces of magnetics spectrograms and electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) clearly show that Alfvénic type MHD activity appears as a high-$q_\mathrm{min}$ and broad q profile is formed. Conversely, this activity disappears as the current profiles evolve toward a low-$q_\mathrm{min}$ profile. In this study, the effect of MHD modes and accompanying fast-particle transport on the formation of various current profiles is explored. The frequency patterns of the magnetics spectrograms and ECEI coherence are compared using a NOVA analysis to determine which series of Alfvénic modes are active. Then, the kick-model is applied to potential modes, and used to estimate how much fast-ions are transported and beam driven current profiles are varied. Here, by comparing the reconstructed total current profile from the kinetic EFIT with the beam-driven current profile estimated from the kick model, it is determined how energetic particle transport is responsible for maintaining the safety factor profile and which q profile can provide high β N operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Inferring the Focal Depths of Small Earthquakes in Southern California Using Physics-Based Waveform Features

Determining the depths of small crustal earthquakes is challenging in many regions of the world, because most seismic networks are too sparse to resolve trade-offs between depth and origin time with conventional arrival-time methods. Precise and accurate depth estimation is important, because it can help seismologists discriminate between earthquakes and explosions, which is relevant to monitoring nuclear test ban treaties and producing earthquake catalogs that are uncontaminated by mining blasts. Here, we examine the depth sensitivity of several physics-based waveform features for ~8000 earthquakes in southern California that have well-resolved depths from arrival-time inversion. We focus on small earthquakes (2 < M L < 4) recorded at local distances (<150 km), for which depth estimation is especially challenging. We find that differential magnitudes (M w /M L –M c ) are positively correlated with focal depth, implying that coda wave excitation decreases with focal depth. We analyze a simple proxy for relative frequency content, Φ≡log 10 (M 0 )+3log 10 (f c ), and find that source spectra are preferentially enriched in high frequencies, or “blue-shifted,” as focal depth increases. Here, we also find that two spectral amplitude ratios Rg 0.5–2 Hz/Sg 0.5–8 Hz and Pg/Sg at 3–8 Hz decrease as focal depth increases. Using multilinear regression with these features as predictor variables, we develop models that can explain 11%–59% of the variance in depths within 10 subregions and 25% of the depth variance across southern California as a whole. We suggest that incorporating these features into a machine learning workflow could help resolve focal depths in regions that are poorly instrumented and lack large databases of well-located events. Some of the waveform features we evaluate in this study have previously been used as source discriminants, and our results imply that their effectiveness in discrimination is partially because explosions generally occur at shallower depths than earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improved Upper Limit on Degree-scale CMB B -mode Polarization Power from the 670 Square-degree POLARBEAR Survey

We report an improved measurement of the degree-scale cosmic microwave background B-mode angular-power spectrum over 670 deg 2 sky area at 150 GHz with Polarbear. In the original analysis of the data, errors in the angle measurement of the continuously rotating half-wave plate, a polarization modulator, caused significant data loss. By introducing an angle-correction algorithm, the data volume is increased by a factor of 1.8. We report a new analysis using the larger data set. We find the measured B-mode spectrum is consistent with the ΛCDM model with Galactic dust foregrounds. We estimate the contamination of the foreground by cross-correlating our data and Planck 143, 217, and 353 GHz measurements, where its spectrum is modeled as a power law in angular scale and a modified blackbody in frequency. We place an upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r < 0.33 at 95% confidence level after marginalizing over the foreground parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Introduction of a Variable Inductance Transformer for the Design of Resonant Power Converters

Magnetic integration is a hot topic in power electronics that concerns the use of a transformer’s leakage and magnetizing inductances purposefully in isolated power electronic converters, thereby giving the opportunity to save the cost and footprint of any additional inductor. This is of prime interest, especially in CLLLC resonant converters which require up to three inductors. For a complete integration of these inductances, the concept of a variable inductance transformer (VIT) is introduced in this thesis. A VIT is an adaptive magnetic structure that facilitates an easy adjustment of both magnetizing and leakage inductances to meet their desired values. However, for a more promising design, an accurate estimation of these inductances is necessary. While the evaluation of magnetizing inductance is quite straightforward, the calculation of leakage inductance is rather convoluted, because the leakage inductance is influenced by both the winding layout and the operating frequency. In this thesis, three new semi-analytical methods for calculating the frequency-independent leakage inductance, and a novel semi-analytical method for evaluating the frequency-dependent leakage inductance are proposed. These methods can calculate the respective leakage inductances of a VIT within an outstanding ±5% uncertainty. Finally, a bidirectional CLLLC resonant dc-dc converter is investigated for the constant current constant voltage (CCCV) charging of the next-generation 900 V traction battery of an electric vehicle. A new voltage gain equation is derived for designing the CLLLC resonant tank, and a small-signal model is presented for designing the variable-frequency feedback controller. Furthermore, a new methodology to design a VIT is developed to overcome the challenges associated with small coupling coefficients and guarantee a complete magnetic integration of the tank inductances. All theoretical results presented herein are verified through simulations and experiments performed on hardware prototypes designed in the lab.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Experimental investigation of turbulent wake flows in a helically wrapped rod bundle in presence of localized blockages

In nuclear sodium fast reactors, bundles of rods are tightly packed into a triangular lattice, enclosed in a hexagonal duct, and each pin is spirally wrapped with a thin wire. Flow blockages can potentially impact the local flow characteristics and heat transfer mechanisms in the bundle due to its small subchannel size. The effects of the blockage on the flow structures and heat transfer mechanisms are important aspects that require an accurate investigation. In this study, the flow-field characteristics in the vicinity of a blockage located in the exterior subchannel of rod bundles with helically wrapped wires were experimentally investigated. The velocity fields in the exterior subchannel were acquired by applying matched-index-of-refraction and time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) techniques for Reynolds numbers of Re 1 = 4000 and Re 2 = 17 000, i.e., equivalent to Rew 1 = 19 600 and Rew 2 = 83 200, respectively, based on the blockage width. The results from the TR-PIV measurements revealed an arch-shaped vortex with a large flow recirculation and a pair of counter-rotating vortices in the wake region downstream of the blockage, which is commonly observed in the wake flow of bluff bodies. The relative lateral distance and angle between the two vortices decreased when the Reynolds numbers increased. Profiles of maximum turbulence intensity along the shear layers illustrated the transition process including the growth, peak, and decay along the flow direction. From the spectral analysis of the turbulent velocities extracted at points along the shear layer, the Strouhal numbers ( St ) representing the vortex shedding frequency were found to be St = 0.25 and St = 0.56 for the left and right shear layers, respectively. Characteristics of shear layers generated by the blockage in the exterior subchannel were investigated via the two-point cross correlation of fluctuating velocities. The patiotemporal cross correlations of turbulent velocities, computed at points in the region where the left shear layer exhibited rolling effects and vortex breakdowns, were considerably wider and longer. The convection velocity U c was estimated to be ~0.82 U m to 0.93 U m . Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) analysis was applied to the instantaneous velocity fields to extract the statistically dominant flow structures. It was found that POD modes 2–3 and 4–5 formed the pair modes when the corresponding POD temporal coefficients depicted sinusoidal shapes and exhibited nearly circular orbits in the phase space. Spectral analysis of the POD temporal coefficients confirmed the vortex shedding frequencies detected in the analysis of turbulent velocities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Spurious solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder

Spurious solar-wind effects are a potential noise source in future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) measurements. One noise coupling mechanism is constrained by estimating solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder (LPF). While LISA is designed for drag-free differential measurement, predicting the realistic impact both bounds the operational environment and assesses whether LISA could provide serendipitous space-weather observations. Data from NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), situated at the L1 Lagrange point, serves as a reliable source of solar-wind data. The data sets are compared over the 114 d time period from 1 March 2016 to 23 June 2016. This period gives the longest readily-available open data set, without interference from other commissioning activities. To evaluate space weather effects, the data from both satellites are formatted, gap-filled/interpolated, and fast-Fourier transformed for amplitude spectral density and coherence comparisons. Solar wind effects are not seen in a coherence plot between LPF and ACE; modest coherence in the planned LISA observational frequency band can be attributed to chance. This result indicates that measurable correlation due to solar-wind acceleration noise over 3 month timescales will be a negligible noise source. LISA is unlikely to inform solar wind measurements routinely. Another source of noise from the Sun, solar radiation pressure, is estimated to impart greater acceleration noise, but has yet to be analyzed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variable-Speed Pump Efficiency Calculation For Fluid Flow Systems with and without Static Head

To accurately calculate pump energy savings gained from implementing variable frequency drive (VFD) controls, the variation of pump efficiency must be considered when operating conditions transition from the design operating point to new operating points. Many software tools require users to specify the new pump efficiency, or it is assumed to be unchanged. Unfortunately, many users have challenges of estimating the pump efficiency at new operating points. This paper presents a simplified method of estimating centrifugal pump efficiency at new operating speeds when the pump is controlled by a VFD. This methodology applies to systems with and without static head when the system curve is not affected by the change, and also systems where the change in operation changes the system curve.A hypothetical fluid flow system and centrifugal pump were used to demonstrate the calculation process for these scenarios. For this hypothetical system, the pump’s efficiency at new operating points was up to 5.4% lower than the design operating point.

42 ENGINEERING↗

BEYONDPLANCK VIII. Efficient sidelobe convolution and corrections through spin harmonics

We introduce a new formulation of the Conviqt convolution algorithm in terms of spin harmonics, and apply this to the problem of sidelobe correction for BEYONDPLANCK, the first end-to-end Bayesian Gibbs sampling framework for CMB analysis. We compare our implementation to the previous Planck LevelS implementation, and find good agreement between the two codes in terms of accuracy, but with a speed-up reaching a factor of 3–10, depending on the frequency bandlimits, l max and m max . The new algorithm is significantly simpler to implement and maintain, since all low-level calculations are handled through an external spherical harmonic transform library. We find that our mean sidelobe estimates for Planck LFI are in good agreement with previous efforts. Additionally, we present novel sidelobe rms maps that quantify the uncertainty in the sidelobe corrections due to variations in the sky model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tight Bound on the Neutron Star Radius with Quasiperiodic Oscillations in Short Gamma-Ray Bursts

Abstract Quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) have been recently discovered in the short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) 910711 and 931101B. Their frequencies are consistent with those of the quasiradial and quadrupolar oscillations of binary neutron star (BNS) merger remnants, as obtained in numerical relativity simulations. These simulations reveal quasi-universal relations between the remnant oscillation frequencies and the tidal coupling constant of the binaries. Under the assumption that the observed QPOs are due to these postmerger oscillations, we use the frequency–tide relations in a Bayesian framework to infer the source redshift, as well as the chirp mass and the binary tidal deformability of the BNS progenitors for GRBs 910711 and 931101B. We further use this inference to estimate bounds on the mass–radius relation for neutron stars. By combining the estimates from the two GRBs, we find a 68% credible range R 1.4 = 12.4 8 − 0.40 + 0.41 km for the radius of a neutron star with mass M = 1.4 M ⊙ , which is one of the tightest bounds to date.

Guedes, Victor↗

Conformational Dynamics of Bacteriochlorophyll c in Chlorosomes from the bchQ Mutant of Chlorobaculum tepidum

In contrast to the common viewpoint that bacteriochlorophyll (BChl) motion is largely absent within the chlorosome assembly, physics-based modeling points to a crucial role of the nanoscale librational motion of the macrocycle for the transfer of excitons. To elucidate this motion experimentally, compositional uniformity and high sensitivity are required. We focused on uniformly 13 C labeled chlorosome preparations from the bchQ mutant Chlorobaculum tepidum with significantly enhanced structural homogeneity. The librational motion is characterized using Rotational Echo DOuble Resonance (REDOR), and in addition, the impact of temperature on specific functionalities within BChl molecules is studied with 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional dipolar and scalar-based MAS NMR measurements. Results show the gradual freezing of the tails and side chains of the BChls with decreasing temperature. However, the librational motion analyzed by measuring the 5C–H dipolar coupling strength obtained from REDOR data sets persists at different temperatures. REDOR simulations show a close match to the experimental dephasing frequency of oscillation for a dipolar coupling strength of 17.5 ± 0.5 kHz which is considerably less than the dipolar coupling strength of 22.7 kHz in the rigid limit. Following a two-site jump model, we arrive at an estimate for BChl libration sampling at an angle of θ = 48 ± 4°, corroborating that the macrocycle indeed experiences significant librational motion on a time scale that is short compared to the NMR measurement time. This finding is in full quantitative support of the dominant rotational motion exhibited by the BChl macrocycle estimated from early MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗