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DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of AGR-3/4 In-pile Silver Release Predictions Against Post-Irradiation Examination Measurements

Fuel performance modeling codes that accurately predict the transport of radionuclides in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors that utilize tristructural isotopic (TRISO) fuel particles are an important aspect of reactor safety analyses. One objective of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 experiment was to assess the transport of fission products through fuel particles and their subsequent release into the compact matrix and structural graphite materials. This was accomplished by irradiating uranium oxycarbide (UCO) driver fuel particles and designed-to-fail (DTF) particles to serve as known sources of fission products. The fission product of particular interest when it comes to such transport is silver (Ag-110 m), as it has a 250-day half-life and has relatively high mobility in the TRISO coating layers. Furthermore, to assess the current modeling capabilities and diffusion parameters employed in the fuel performance codes PARFUME and BISON, the fractional release of silver release predicted by the two codes were compared against post-irradiation examination measurements from the AGR-3/4 experiment.

AGR-3/4 Experiment↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic analysis of the use of atomic layer deposited transition metal oxides in silicon heterojunction solar cells

The industry for producing silicon solar cells and modules has grown remarkably over the past decades, with more than a 100-fold reduction in price over the past 45?years. The main solar cell fabrication technology has shifted over that time and is currently dominated by the passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC). Other technologies are expected to increase in market share, including tunnel-oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) and heterojunction technology (HJT). In this paper, we examine the cost potential for using atomic layer deposition (ALD) to form transition metal oxide (TMO) layers (MoO x , TiO x and aluminium-doped zinc oxide [AZO]) to use as lower cost alternatives of the p-doped, n-doped and indium tin oxide (ITO) layers, respectively, the layers normally used in HJT solar cells. Using a bottom-up cost and uncertainty model with equipment cost data and process experience in the lab, we find that the production cost of these variations will likely be lower per wafer than standard HJT, with the main cost drivers being the cost of the ALD precursors at high-volume production. We then considered what efficiency is required for these sequences to be cost effective in $/W and discuss whether these targets are technically feasible. This work motivates further work in developing these ALD TMO processes to increase their efficiency towards their theoretical limits to take advantage of the processing cost advantage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Economics of electric vehicle corridor fast charging in the United States

Corridor direct-current fast charging (DCFC) stations enable long-distance electric vehicle travel, yet their economics remain uncertain due to high capital costs, low initial utilization, and exposure to utility demand charges. This study evaluates the long-term economics of corridor DCFC across the United States, incorporating capital and operating expenses-including charging equipment and real-world utility tariffs-alongside modeled station utilization, financial incentives, and ancillary retail revenue. In the Baseline scenario, modeled breakeven costs for corridor DCFC average $\$$0.42/kWh over 20 years, yet fewer than half of stations reach cost parity with gasoline on a per-mile basis. Utilization is the primary driver of cost variation, with low-utilization stations costing roughly six times more per kilowatt-hour than the national average. Excluding stations that fail to reach cost parity reduces National Highway System coverage within 50 miles from 94% to 67%, underscoring the trade-off between market-driven deployment and comprehensive network coverage. These results provide guidance for charging providers, utilities, planners, and policymakers seeking to develop and sustain a financially viable national corridor charging network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing extreme fast charge battery protocols – A review spanning materials to systems

Extreme fast charging (XFC) has become a focal research point in the lithium-battery community over the last several years. As adoption of electric vehicles increases, fast charging has become a key driver in enhancing consumer recharge experience. Recently, the research community has made significant improvements in developing charge protocols to support XFC. New charge protocol designs derived using a combination of advanced, physically derived models, and electrochemical and secondary characterization methods, increase charge acceptance and decrease aging. By coordinating these methods and modifying protocols to account for different material constraints, including lithium plating and cathode particle degradation, novel charge protocols have increased the energy accepted during charging by over 25% in 10 min and increased the charge acceptance prior to a constant-voltage step by approximately 3x. Here, we review several charge-protocol advances, aging factors which are enhanced by XFC and advances which will enable adoption of XFC capable vehicles. These advances include implementing machine learning and other detection algorithms to reduce and classify lithium plating, which is known to significantly degrade cell performance and reduce cell life. The review concludes by discussing full-system fast charge requirements, including electric vehicle service equipment needs for implementing XFC protocols.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Central transcriptional regulator controls photosynthetic growth and carbon storage in response to high light

Carbon capture and biochemical storage are some of the primary drivers of photosynthetic yield and productivity. To elucidate the mechanisms governing carbon allocation, we designed a photosynthetic light response test system for genetic and metabolic carbon assimilation tracking, using microalgae as simplified plant models. The systems biology mapping of high light-responsive photophysiology and carbon utilization dynamics between two variants of the same Picochlorum celeri species, TG1 and TG2 elucidated metabolic bottlenecks and transport rates of intermediates using instationary 13 C-fluxomics. Simultaneous global gene expression dynamics showed 73% of the annotated genes responding within one hour, elucidating a singular, diel-responsive transcription factor, closely related to the CCA1/LHY clock genes in plants, with significantly altered expression in TG2. Transgenic P. celeri TG1 cells expressing the TG2 CCA1/LHY gene, showed 15% increase in growth rates and 25% increase in storage carbohydrate content, supporting a coordinating regulatory function for a single transcription factor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural insights into isoform-specific RAS-PI3Kα interactions and the role of RAS in PI3Kα activation

Abstract Mutations in RAS and PI3Kα are major drivers of human cancer. Their interaction plays a crucial role in activating PI3Kα and amplifying the PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway. Disrupting RAS-PI3Kα interaction enhances survival in lung and skin cancer models and reduces tumor growth and angiogenesis, although the structural details of this interaction remain unclear. Here, we present structures of KRAS, RRAS2, and MRAS bound to the catalytic subunit (p110α) of PI3Kα, elucidating the interaction interfaces and local conformational changes upon complex formation. Structural and mutational analyses highlighted key residues in RAS and PI3Kα impacting binding affinity and revealed isoform-specific differences at the interaction interface in RAS and PI3K isoforms, providing a rationale for their differential affinities. Notably, in the RAS-p110α complex structures, RAS interaction with p110α is limited to the RAS-binding domain and does not involve the kinase domain. This study underscores the pivotal role of the RAS-PI3Kα interaction in PI3Kα activation and provides a blueprint for designing PI3Kα isoform-specific inhibitors to disrupt this interaction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implications of the correlation between bulge-to-total baryonic mass ratio and the number of satellites for SAGA galaxies

We searched for correlations between the number of satellites and fundamental galactic properties for the Milky Way-like host galaxies in order to better understand their diverse satellite populations. We specifically aim to understand why galaxies that are very similar in stellar mass content, star formation rate, and local environment have very different numbers of satellites. Deep and extensive spectroscopic observations are needed to characterize the complete satellite luminosity function beyond the Local Group. One such endeavor is an ongoing Satellites of Galactic Analogs (SAGA) spectroscopic survey that has completed spectroscopic observations of 36 Milky Way-like galaxies within their virial radii down to the luminosity of Leo I dwarf galaxy. We correlated the number of satellites of SAGA galaxies with several fundamental properties of their hosts – including total specific angular momentum, which is considered to be well preserved throughout galaxy lifetime – in an attempt to identify the main driver of their diverse satellite populations. We aim to reveal some intrinsic galactic property decisive in making more or less satellites irrespective of baryonic mass or the environment in which galaxies reside. We modeled Spitzer Heritage Archive images of SAGA host galaxies at 3.6 and 4.5 microns with GALFIT code to obtain their stellar masses. We also searched the Extragalactic Database for information on their gas content and rotation velocities. Empirical correlations, like the baryonic Tully–Fisher relation and the stellar mass–size relation were used to exclude outliers. All the available galactic properties from the literature along with measured stellar masses were correlated with the number of satellites and no significant correlation was found. However, when we considered the “expected” number of satellites based on the correlation between the baryonic bulge-to-total ratio and the number of satellites confirmed for several nearby galaxies then strong correlations emerge between this number and (1) the mass of the bulge, and (2) the total specific angular momentum. The first correlation is positive, implying that galaxies with more massive bulges have more satellites, as already confirmed. Furthermore, the second correlation with the angular momentum is negative, meaning that, the smaller the angular momentum, the greater the number of expected satellites. This would imply that either satellites cannot form if galaxy angular momentum is too high, or that satellites form inside-out, so that angular momentum is being transferred to the outer parts of the galaxies. However, deeper spectroscopic observations are needed to confirm these findings, because they rely on the expected rather than detected number of satellites. There was a luminosity limit to the SAGA survey equivalent to the luminosity of Leo I dwarf satellite of the Milky Way galaxy (the SAGA limit). In particular, correlations found in this work are very susceptible to the total number of satellites of the NGC 4158 galaxy. This galaxy is predicted to have many more satellites than detected up to the SAGA limit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

SYCL for Performance Portability: Application Experience with Coupled Cluster Formalism in Quantum Chemistry on Exascale Systems

The exascale computing has brought unprecedented heterogeneity in node architectures, with systems such as Frontier and Aurora featuring diverse GPU accelerators, network connectivity among others. Ensuring performance portability across these platforms is a key challenge. To address this, we employ the SYCL programming model to develop portable, high-performance quantum chemistry workloads. As a representative application, we focus on the non-iterative Triples component of the coupled-cluster CCSD(T) method, a key driver in quantum chemistry. In this work, we report on our experience deploying SYCL-based implementations using both DPC++ and AdaptiveCPP across two flagship exascale platforms: OLCF Frontier with AMD MI250X GPUs and ALCF Aurora with Intel GPUs. Our results demonstrate that SYCL enables efficient, single-source implementations that scale to thousands of nodes, delivering performance on par with vendor-optimized HIP solutions. We highlight key insights into runtime behavior, kernel portability, and scaling characteristics, showing that SYCL offers a viable path for performance-portable computing.

Bagusetty, Abhishek [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2026

The scientific case for concurrent neutron and X-ray scattering and spectroscopy

The interrogation of materials with X-rays or neutrons to determine structure, energetics, and dynamics is fundamental to advancing physical and chemical materials science and enabling innovative material technologies. A persistent challenge in materials development is that progress depends on understanding structure and dynamics across multiple length and time scales in increasingly complex, multicomponent systems featuring interfaces, heterogeneity, and hierarchical organization. Despite rapidly growing demands on materials characterization, current experimental approaches are almost exclusively based on isolated X-ray or neutron scattering and spectroscopy, reflecting a paradigm largely unchanged for decades. To assess the scientific need for a new experimental paradigm, a 3-day workshop sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) was held at the SpringHill Suites, San Jose, California, from June 2 to 4, 2022. The workshop brought together 70 national and international experts who critically evaluated opportunities enabled by concurrent neutron and X-ray (NeX) scattering, spectroscopy, and imaging experiments. The participants reached a clear consensus that establishing NeX capabilities is crucial for advancing the science of complex materials in the United States. This report illustrates the scientific drivers for NeX experiments through representative examples spanning biomaterials, energy materials, soft matter, nanomaterials, quantum materials, geoscience, and applied materials research. The complementarity of neutrons and X-rays is essential for robust model development and refinement, particularly in multiphase and multicomponent systems. While joint refinement of data from separate experiments is valuable, concurrent measurements uniquely eliminate uncertainties arising from sample evolution, environmental drift, and irreproducibility associated with experiments performed at different locations and times. Realizing NeX capabilities will require the development of new instrumentation, data analysis frameworks, and robust sample environments compatible with both neutron and X-ray probes. Addressing these challenges will enable unambiguous interpretation of complex materials behavior and open new frontiers in materials research.

X-ray↗

DOE OSTI2023

First-Principles Cost Estimation of a Sodium Fast Reactor Nuclear Plant

A multi-tiered cost analysis is performed to estimate full costs of a nuclear power plant (NPP) based on sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) technology. To address the lack of fully transparent cost estimations from past undertakings for NPPs, we have developed a detailed and first-principles-based cost estimate for a generalized SFR NPP. Our intent is to achieve a high degree of transparency with our cost assumptions and develop a cost model that is flexible and easily extendable to variations in NPP design and other nuclear reactor types. Furthermore, we strive to achieve a clear organization of costs and complete identification of key cost drivers based on first principles. To this end, the cost results of our analysis as given in Table 24 and Table 25 are organized and categorized into a code of accounts (COA) under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Varying degrees of first-principles methods are employed, such as design for manufacture and assembly® (DFMA® ), to elucidate costs in all process levels of the plant equipment, buildings and site structures, personnel, and other miscellaneous but significant cost elements. These approaches have been successfully applied in past cost analysis projects and are designed to enable rapid and flexible cost estimation. Application of these techniques for evaluating NPP costs is similar in concept to the full, detailed estimation of construction and fabrication costs determined in a later stage of NPP development. Note that our approach tries to avoid use of other past analysis results and data such as those from the legacy Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) Program, as these resources are based on historical NPP costs and thus may not be indicative of new reactor technologies or construction and fabrication/manufacturing techniques. However, we provide a comparison of our SFR NPP cost results in Table 90 against those included in the EEDB for a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Techno-Economic Analysis Framework for a Solar Thermochemical Fuel Production Process

Synthetic liquid fuels can provide a drop-in substitute for fossil-based fuels in sectors such as aviation and maritime, where electrification is not a viable option due to the need for high specific energy density. However, for these alternative fuels to be adopted at a commercial scale, their price must be competitive compared to their fossil-based counterparts. The reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) reaction offers a promising pathway, using hydrogen (sourced from electrolysis) and carbon dioxide as the feed and reacting to produce syngas - a mixture of H2 and CO at a specific ratio. Syngas is a useful precursor that can be converted into fuels and chemicals via known downstream processes, such as liquid transportation fuels via Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. The RWGS reaction is currently not applied in commercial scale, unlike the rest of the components in the process chain (electrolyzers and syngas-to-fuel synthesis units). The RWGS reaction poses several challenges due to its restrictive thermodynamics. Being an equimolar reaction, high temperatures and a large excess of H2 are needed to achieve reasonable CO2 conversion at equilibrium. This has detrimental effects on practical process implementation and the quality of syngas that can be produced, with direct effect on the energy and capital requirements, as well as the need for expensive downstream separation. In this work, we are proposing to develop a new concentrating solar thermal (CST) compatible RWGS reactor, performing the reaction in a 2-step chemical looping process using metal oxide at a temperature range of 600-800 degrees Celsius. By decoupling the reactor from the solar receiver, the Generation 3 (Gen3) CST technology could be utilized, together with its proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technology, benefitting from a good match to the required temperatures. CST technology is a viable option for supplying the heat that could be rapidly deployed in scale, thus being a good match to the gas-to-liquid (GTL) process which requires a large minimal scale to be commercially viable. The integration of TES with CST also allows operating the plant at large annual capacity factors and avoids multiple shutdown/startup cycles, thus fitting into the steady-state operation mode that most GTL processes require. The main innovation in the proposed design hinges on a countercurrent reaction design using a packed bed reactor. In 2019 Metcalfe et al. showed the benefits of countercurrent species exchange could be realized in a redox chemical-looping processes, by storing the favorable countercurrent chemical potential profiles in a packed bed of non-stoichiometric oxide. Metcalfe et al. applied this breakthrough concept to the WGS reaction, which is conventionally a co-feed catalytic process, showing a dramatic improvement. Bulfin et al. (2023) performed a similar proof-of-concept demonstration for the RWGS reaction using CeO2, achieving cumulative and peak CO2 conversions of 88% and 95%, respectively, compared to a thermodynamic limit of 58% for the co-feed catalytic process at the same conditions. In our new REGENLOOP project, we are developing a reactor prototype from the heat-exchange packed bed reactor-type, a commonly used reactor in the chemical industry. The endothermic heat of reduction will be supplied to the reactor using CST, while the same heat transfer fluid (HTF) mechanism will be used to extract the exothermic heat of oxidation. An array of multiple reactors is used to supply constant high-purity CO stream, that is then mixed with H2 from electrolysis to produce a high-purity syngas at the required composition. By removing the CO-CO2 separation after the RWGS process, significant energy and cost reduction can be achieved. A physics-based TEA framework is currently being developed, covering all the major plant processes, from the solar collection through storage, chemical looping RWGS, GTL, and auxiliary unit operations, up to the liquid hydrocarbon product. This modeling framework will utilize reduced-order models for the chemical looping RWGS and TES, CST modeling using SolarPILOT, and Aspen Plus for the GTL. By using this combined physics-based approach, the effects of design/operating parameters on the performance and cost can be elucidated. In our presentation, the modeling framework will be presented in detail, including preliminary cost predictions of using this plant configuration under a few selected relevant case studies. This study will be used to identify the major cost drivers, informing further system design and optimization needed to chart the way for a commercially viable pathway.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Automated Driving Strategies Leveraging Anticipation and Optimal Control

Automated vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems bring computation, sensing, and communication technologies that exceed human abilities in some ways. For example, automated vehicles may sense a panorama all at once, do not suffer from human impairments and distractions, and could wirelessly communicate precise data with neighboring vehicles. Prototype and commercial deployments have demonstrated the capability to relieve human operators of some driving tasks up to and including fully autonomous taxi rides in some areas. The ultimate impact of this technology’s large-scale market penetration on energy efficiency remains unclear, with potential negative factors like road use by empty vehicles competing with positive ones like automatic eco-driving. Fundamentally enabled by historic and look-ahead data, this dissertation addresses the use of automated driving and driver assistance to optimize vehicle motion for energy efficiency. Facets of this problem include car following, co-optimized acceleration and lane change planning, and collaborative multi-agent guidance. Optimal control, especially model predictive control, is used extensively to improve energy efficiency while maintaining safe and timely driving via constraints. Techniques including chance constraints and mixed integer programming help overcome uncertainty and non-convexity challenges. Extensions of these techniques to tractor trailers on sloping roads are provided by making use of linear parameter-varying models. To approach the wheel-input energy eco-driving problem over generally shaped sloping roads with the computational potential for closed-loop implementation, a linear programming formulation is constructed. Distributed and collaborative techniques that enable connected and automated vehicles to accommodate their neighbors in traffic are also explored and compared to centralized control. Using simulations and vehicle-in-the-loop car following experiments, the proposed algorithms are benchmarked against others that do not make use of look-ahead information.

Dollar, Robert Austin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand Segmentation, Drivers, and Management Through 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working closely with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity (OE) to understand the critical drivers and potential means of managing distribution transformer demand through 2050. This effort has consulted with utility representative organizations and transformer manufacturers to understand the problem, characterized the in-service assets, and modeled future demand. Distribution transformers, or service transformers, range from 10 to 5,000 kilovolt-amperes (kVA), have a high-side voltage of less than 34.5 kilovolts, and have step-down power delivery for customer end use. This research will help the manufacturing sector understand production requirements and better inform utility strategies for managing their demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗