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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Continuous-time probabilistic models for longitudinal electronic health records

Analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data is an important goal for precision medicine. Difficulty in applying Machine Learning (ML) methods, either predictive or unsupervised, stems in part from the heterogeneity and irregular sampling of EHR data. Here, we present an unsupervised probabilistic model that captures nonlinear relationships between variables over continuous-time. This method works with arbitrary sampling patterns and captures the joint probability distribution between variable measurements and the time intervals between them. Inference algorithms are derived that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of future using under a trained model. As an example, we consider data from the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the areas of diabetes and depression. Likelihood ratio maps are produced showing the likelihood of risk for moderate-severe vs minimal depression as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections from HADES proton flow data

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian Process emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate energies, we infer from the HADES proton flow data the posterior probability distribution functions of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section modification factor X with respect to free-space and the corresponding incompressibility K of nuclear matter as well as their correlation function. In conclusion, the mean value of X is found to be $X$ = $1.32_ {+0.28} ^ {-0.40} $ at 68% confidence level assuming the nuclear incompressibility K will not exceed 400 MeV, providing circumstantial evidence for enhanced baryon-braryon scattering cross sections in hot and dense nuclear matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fraction of broad absorption line quasars in different radio morphologies

ABSTRACT In this study, we investigated the orientation model of Broad Absorption Line (BAL) quasars using a sample of sources that are common in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release (DR)-16 quasar catalogue and Very Large Array (VLA)-Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty Centimeters (FIRST) survey. Using the radio cut-out images from the FIRST survey, we first designed a deep-learning model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) to classify the quasar radio morphologies into the core-only, young jet, single lobe, or triples. These radio morphologies are further sub-classified into core-dominated and lobe-dominated sources. The CNN models can classify the sources with a high precision of >98 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for all the morphological sub-classes. The average BAL fraction in the resolved core, core-dominated, and lobe-dominated quasars are consistent with the BAL fraction inferred from radio and infrared surveys. We also present the distribution of BAL quasars as a function of quasar orientation by using the radio core-dominance as an orientation indicator. A similar analysis is performed for HiBALs, LoBALs, and FeLoBALs. All the radio morphological sub-classes and BAL sub-classes show an increase in BAL fraction at high orientation angles of the jets with respect to the line of sight. Our analysis suggests that BAL quasars are more likely to be found in viewing angles close to the equatorial plane of the quasar. However, a pure orientation model is inadequate, and a combination of orientation and evolution is probably the best way to explain the complete BAL phenomena.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous single-shot rotation–vibration non-equilibrium thermometry using pure rotational fs/ps CARS coherence beating

Here, we report the development of a simple and sensitive two-beam hybrid femtosecond/picosecond pure rotational coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (fs/ps CARS) method to simultaneously measure the rotational and vibrational temperatures of diatomic molecules. Rotation–vibration non-equilibrium plays a key role in the chemistry and thermalization in low-temperature plasmas as well as thermal loading of hypersonic vehicles. This approach uses time-domain interferences between ground state and vibrationally excited N 2 molecules to intentionally induce coherence beating that leads to apparent non-Boltzmann distributions in the pure rotational spectra. These distortions enable simultaneous inference of both the rotational and vibrational temperatures. Coherence beating effects were observed in single-shot fs/ps CARS measurements of a 75 Torr N 2 DC glow discharge and were successfully modeled for rotational and vibrational temperature extraction. We show that this method can be more sensitive than a pure rotational fs/ps CARS approach using a spectrally narrow probe pulse. Lastly, we experimentally measured the beat frequencies via Fourier transform of the time-domain response and obtained excellent agreement with the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

exoALMA. V. Gaseous Emission Surfaces and Temperature Structures

An analysis of the gaseous component in protoplanetary disks can inform us about their thermal and physical structure, chemical composition, and kinematic properties, all of which are crucial for understanding various processes within the disks. By exploiting the asymmetry of the line emission, or via line profile analysis, we can locate the emitting surfaces. Here, we present the emission surfaces of the exoALMA sources in 12 CO J = 3–2, 13 CO J = 3–2, and CS J = 7–6. We find that 12 CO traces the upper disk atmosphere, with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.28, while 13 CO and CS trace lower regions of the disk with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.16 and ≈0.18, respectively. We find that 12 CO $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ and the disk mass are positively correlated with each other; this relationship offers a straightforward way to infer the disk mass. We derive 2D r – z temperature distributions of the disks. Additionally, we search for substructure in the surfaces and radial intensity profiles; we find evidence of localized substructure in the emission surfaces and peak intensity profiles of nearly every disk, with this substructure often being coincident between molecular tracers, intensity profiles, and kinematic perturbations. Four disks display evidence of potential photodesorption, implying that this effect may be common even in low far-ultraviolet star-forming regions. For most disks, we find that the physical and thermal structure is more complex than analytical models can account for, highlighting a need for more theoretical work and a better understanding of the role of projection effects on our observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1973

The doublet-ratio method and interstellar abundances.

The method of doublet ratios, used in obtaining interstellar Na I and Ca II abundances, is generalized to include realistic multiple-cloud cases. Entirely apart from any errors of observation, the simplified velocity distribution used in the method leads to errors in the inferred column densities which are systematic and which can be as large as a factor of ten or more in some practical cases. The D lines of Na I toward zeta Oph illustrate such order-of-magnitude underestimates.

Nachman, P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A satellite passive 37-GHz scattering-based method for measuring oceanic rain rates

A combination of theory and measurement is used to develop a scattering-based method for quantitatively measuring rainfall over the ocean from Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) 37-GHz observations. This technique takes the observed scattering effects of precipitation on 37-GHz brightness temperatures and applies it to the oceanic environment. It requires an estimate of the effective radiating temperature of the cloudy portion of the atmosphere, and a brightness temperature measurement of the cloud-free ocean surface. These two measurements bound all possible combinations of clear and cloudy conditions within a footprint in terms of bipolarized brightness temperatures. Any satellite-observed brightness temperature T(B) lower than these values is assumed to reflect scattering, which at 37 GHz is only due to precipitation-size hydrometeors. Because the technique involves linear transformation between dual polarized brightness temperature and rain rate, there are no nonlinear 'footprint filling' effects and a unique footprint-averaged rain rate results. It is shown that these SMMR-derived rain rates for five cases of convection over the Gulf of Mexico are closely related to simultaneously derived radar rain rates, having a correlation of 0.90. This technique is then applied to a massive squall line over the Gulf of Mexico, and the resulting rain rate distribution reflects features found in cloud top heights and texture inferred from GOES infrared and visible imagery.

Spencer, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Laser Pyrometer For Spot Temperature Measurements

Laser pyrometer makes temperature map by scanning measuring spot across target. Scanning laser pyrometer passively measures radiation emitted by scanned spot on target and calibrated by similar passive measurement on blackbody of known temperature. Laser beam turned on for active measurements of reflectances of target spot and reflectance standard. From measurements, temperature of target spot inferred. Pyrometer useful for non-contact measurement of temperature distributions in processing of materials.

Elleman, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Morphological study of the innervation pattern of the rabbit sinoatrial node

The pattern of sinoatrial (SA) node innervations in rabbit was elucidated using a newly developed highly reproducible cholinesterase/silver impregnation staining procedure which made it possible to delineate large nerves, fine processes, and ganglion cells. The SA node and dominant pacemaker sites were identified by microelectrode recording. A generalized pattern of innnervation was recognized, which includes a large ganglionic complex inferior to the SA node; two or more moderately large nerves traversing the SA node parallel to the crista terminalis; nerves entering the intercaval region from the septum, the superior vena cava, and the inferior vena cava to impinge on the SA node; and a fine network of nerve processes, which was particularly dense in the SA node. From the location and distribution of the nerves and ganglionic branches, it can be inferred that the neural network in the intercaval region is capable of performing complex modulatory and integrative functions among the structures within this region.

Roberts, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Canopy bidirectional reflectance dependence on leaf orientation

The dependence of the bidirectional reflectance (BR) on the inclination and azimuthal orientation of a leaf is analyzed, with the primary assumption that, in terms of both obscuration and shadowing, the entire canopy consists of the same leaves. The BR patterns of a dense canopy are examined as a function of canopy architecture. It is assumed that the leaves are opaque Lambertian reflectors, having identical orientation and relfecting properties throughout the canopy, and distributed randomly with respect to the the irradiation field and the viewing direction. Analytical expressions are presented and analyzed for the BR factor. It is noted that maximal BR occurs at large viewing zenith angles. A complex and often steep dependence of the BR on azimuthal location is reported, noting that the BR thus depends on the leaf azimuth as well as the zenith angle. It is concluded that the question of azimuthal distribution has to be addressed when conducting model inversions to infer canopy characteristics and architecture.

Brakke, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Interrelation of soft and hard X-ray emissions during solar flares. II - Simulation model

Two-dimensional electrostatic particle simulations are presented which incorporate the effect of quasi-static electric fields on particle dynamics as well as effects associated with wave-particle interactions induced by the accelerated particles. The properties of the soft and hard X-ray and microwave emissions from such systems are examined. In particular, it is shown that acceleration by quasi-static electric fields and heating via wave-particle interactions produces electron distributions with a broken-power law, similar to those inferred from hard X-ray spectra. Also, heating of the ambient plasma gives rise to a region of hot plasma propagating down to the chromosphere at about the ion sound speed.

Winglee, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effect of non-Poisson samples on turbulence spectra from laser velocimetry

Spectral analysis of laser velocimetry (LV) data plays an important role in characterizing a turbulent flow and in estimating the associated turbulence scales, which can be helpful in validating theoretical and numerical turbulence models. The determination of turbulence scales is critically dependent on the accuracy of the spectral estimates. Spectral estimations from 'individual realization' laser velocimetry data are typically based on the assumption of a Poisson sampling process. What this Note has demonstrated is that the sampling distribution must be considered before spectral estimates are used to infer turbulence scales.

Sree, Dave↗