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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Search for physics beyond the standard model in top quark production with additional leptons in the context of effective field theory

A search for new physics in top quark production with additional final-state leptons is performed using data collected by the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV at the LHC during 2016–2018. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Using the framework of effective field theory (EFT), potential new physics effects are parametrized in terms of 26 dimension-six EFT operators. The impacts of EFT operators are incorporated through the event-level reweighting of Monte Carlo simulations, which allows for detector-level predictions. The events are divided into several categories based on lepton multiplicity, total lepton charge, jet multiplicity, and b-tagged jet multiplicity. Kinematic variables corresponding to the transverse momentum (p$_{T}$) of the leading pair of leptons and/or jets as well as the p$_{T}$ of on-shell Z bosons are used to extract the 95% confidence intervals of the 26 Wilson coefficients corresponding to these EFT operators. No significant deviation with respect to the standard model prediction is found.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for vector-boson resonances decaying into a top quark and a bottom quark using $p p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new massive charged gauge boson, $W'$, is performed with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The dataset used in this analysis was collected from proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . The reconstructed tb invariant mass is used to search for a $W'$ boson decaying into a top quark and a bottom quark. The result is interpreted in terms of a $W'$ boson with purely right-handed or left-handed chirality in a mass range of 0.5–6 TeV. Different values for the coupling of the $W'$ boson to the top and bottom quarks are considered, taking into account interference with single-top-quark production in the $s$-channel. No significant deviation from the background prediction is observed. The results are expressed as upper limits on the $W'$ → $tb$ production cross-section times branching ratio as a function of the $W'$-boson mass and in the plane of the coupling vs the $W'$-boson mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence of pair production of longitudinally polarised vector bosons and study of CP properties in ZZ → 4ℓ events with the ATLAS detector at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A study of the polarisation and CP properties in ZZ production is presented. The used data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb –1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The ZZ candidate events are reconstructed using two same-flavour opposite-charge electron or muon pairs. The production of two longitudinally polarised Z bosons is measured with a significance of 4.3 standard deviations, and its cross-section is measured in a fiducial phase space to be 2.45 ± 0.60 fb, consistent with the next-to-leading-order Standard Model prediction. The inclusive differential cross-section as a function of a CP-sensitive angular observable is also measured. The results are used to constrain anomalous CP-odd neutral triple gauge couplings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for direct production of electroweakinos in final states with one lepton, jets and missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for electroweak production of wino-like chargino pairs, ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^{+}{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^{-}$, and of wino-like chargino and next-to-lightest neutralino, ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^{\pm }{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_2^0$, are presented. The models explored assume that the charginos decay into a W boson and the lightest neutralino, ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^{\pm}\to {W}^{\pm }{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$. The next-to-lightest neutralinos are degenerate in mass with the chargino and decay to ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$ and either a Z or a Higgs boson, ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_2^0\to Z{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$ or $h{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$. The searches exploit the presence of a single isolated lepton and missing transverse momentum from the W boson decay products and the lightest neutralinos, and the presence of jets from hadronically decaying Z or W bosons or from the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of b-quarks. The searches use 139 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV proton-proton collisions data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. No deviations from the Standard Model expectations are found, and 95% confidence level exclusion limits are set. Chargino masses ranging from 260 to 520 GeV are excluded for a massless ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$ in chargino pair production models. Degenerate chargino and next-to-lightest neutralino masses ranging from 260 to 420 GeV are excluded for a massless ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$ for ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_2^0\to Z{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$. For decays through an on-shell Higgs boson and for mass-splitting between ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^{\pm }/{\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_2^0$ and ${\overset{\sim }{\chi}}_1^0$ as small as the Higgs boson mass, mass limits are improved by up to 40 GeV in the range of 200–260 GeV and 280–470 GeV compared to previous ATLAS constraints.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for resonances in events with photon and jet final states in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for resonances in events with the γ+jet final state has been performed using proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt s$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The total data analyzed correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . Models of excited quarks and quantum black holes are considered. Using a wide-jet reconstruction for the candidate jet, the γ+jet invariant mass spectrum measured in data is examined for the presence of resonances over the standard model continuum background. The background is estimated by fitting this mass distribution with a functional form. The data exhibit no statistically significant deviations from the expected standard model background. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level on the resonance mass and other parameters are set. Excited light-flavor quarks (excited bottom quarks) are excluded up to a mass of 6.0 (3.8) TeV. Quantum black hole production is excluded for masses up to 7.5 (5.2) TeV in the Arkani-Hamed-Dimopoulos-Dvali (Randall-Sundrum) model. These lower mass bounds are the most stringent to date among those obtained in the γ+jet final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-independent search for pair production of new bosons decaying into muons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The results of a model-independent search for the pair production of new bosons within a mass range of 0.21 < m < 60 GeV, are presented. This study utilizes events with a four-muon final state. We use two data sets, comprising 41.5 fb −1 and 59.7 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, recorded in 2017 and 2018 by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study of the 2018 data set includes a search for displaced signatures of a new boson within the proper decay length range of 0 < cτ < 100 mm. Our results are combined with a previous CMS result, based on 35.9 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected in 2016. No significant deviation from the expected background is observed. Results are presented in terms of a model-independent upper limit on the product of cross section, branching fraction, and acceptance. The findings are interpreted across various benchmark models, such as an axion-like particle model, a vector portal model, the next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model, and a dark supersymmetric scenario, including those predicting a non-negligible proper decay length of the new boson. In all considered scenarios, substantial portions of the parameter space are excluded, expanding upon prior results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reynolds stress tensor measurements using magnetic resonance velocimetry: expansion of the dynamic measurement range and analysis of systematic measurement errors

This study presents magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) Reynolds Stress measurements in a periodic hill channel with a hill Reynolds number of Re = 29,500. The velocity encoding scheme is based on the ICOSA6 method with six icosahedral encoding directions and multiple encoding values are measured to increase the dynamic range. The full Reynolds stress tensor is obtained from a voxel-wise three-dimensional Gaussian fit using the magnitude data of all acquisitions. The MRV results are compared to a wall-resolved large eddy simulation and laser Doppler velocimetry measurements conducted in the same channel. It is shown that the MRV Reynolds stress data have excellent precision and agree qualitatively with the reference data. However, there are apparent systematic deviations. One of the most prominent error contributions is the signal attenuation caused by higher orders of motion, which leads to an overestimation of the turbulence level. Another fundamental error is identified in the assumption that the turbulence is Gaussian distributed. With the presented reconstruction technique, the MRV data are fitted to a statistical model, and depending on the examined flow setup, the Gaussian model can lead to considerable errors. Possible ways of how to reduce all identified errors are presented. In summary, this technique enables Reynolds stress tensor measurements in complex internal flows with high dynamic range and excellent precision. However, several issues need to be resolved to make the turbulence quantification more accurate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous isotope effects decouple conifer leaf and branch sugar δ 18 O and δ 13 C

Isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose are a prominent tool to reconstruct paleoclimate and plant responses to environmental variation. Current models for cellulose isotope ratios assume a transfer of the environmental signals recorded in bulk leaf water to carbohydrates and ultimately into stem cellulose. However, the isotopic signal of carbohydrates exported from leaf to branch may deviate from mean leaf values if spatial heterogeneity in isotope ratios exists in the leaf. We tested whether the isotopic heterogeneity previously observed along the length of a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) leaf water was preserved in photosynthetic products. We observed an increase in both sugar and bulk tissue δ 18 O values along the needle, but the increase in carbohydrate δ 18 O values was dampened relative to the trend observed in leaf water. In contrast, δ 13 C values of both sugar and bulk organic matter were invariant along the needle. Additionally, phloem-exported sugar measured in the branch below the needles did not match whole-needle values of δ 18 O or δ 13 C. Instead, there was a near-constant offset observed between the branch and needle sugar δ 13 C values, while branch δ 18 O values were most similar to δ 18 O values observed for sugar at the base of the needle. The observed offset between the branch and needle sugar δ 18 O values likely arises from partial isotope oxygen exchange between sugars and water during phloem loading and transport. An improved understanding of the conditions producing differential δ 13 C and δ 18 O isotope effects between branch phloem and needle sugars could improve tree-ring-based climate reconstructions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ThunderSecure: deploying real-time intrusion detection for 100G research networks by leveraging stream-based features and one-class classification network

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks (40/100G) across distributed sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience intrusions. However, monitoring anomalies in such high-speed network traffics is challenging given current cyber-infrastructure. Moreover, traditional network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are signature based. However, anomaly patterns are difficult to define and that rulesets are often not updated frequently enough to reflect the changes of attack behaviors. We present ThunderSecure, a high-throughput, unsupervised learning-based intrusions detection system for 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements an efficient packet processing and detection pipeline using multi-cores and GPUs. It extracts statistical and temporal features from real-time network data streams and feeds them to a one-class anomaly detection network. A baseline of normal distribution will be created based on the training observation. Testing traffic deviated from the learned profile will be marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets mirrored from two 100G network connections at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic captured long after the training and made nearly certain detection on the segment of the streams where anomalous flows were injected.

100G research network↗
DOE OSTI2024

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Flexible Generator Operating Regions via Chance- constrained Stochastic Unit Commitment

Here, we introduce a novel chance-constrained stochastic unit commitment model to address uncertainty in renewables' production uncertainty in power systems operation. For most thermal generators,underlying technical constraints that are universally treated as "hard" by deterministic unit commitment models are in fact based on engineering judgments, such that system operators can periodically request operation outside these limits in non-nominal situations, e.g., to ensure reliability. We incorporate this practical consideration into a chance-constrained stochastic unit commitment model, specifically by in-frequently allowing minor deviations from the minimum and maximum thermal generator power output levels. We demonstrate that an extensive form of our model is computationally tractable for medium-sized power systems given modest numbers of scenarios for renewables' production. We show that the model is able to potentially save significant annual production costs by allowing infrequent and controlled violation of the traditionally hard bounds imposed on thermal generator production limits. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of optimal solutions to our model under two restricted regimes and observe similar qualitative results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High precision control and deep learning-based corn stand counting algorithms for agricultural robot

This paper presents high precision control and deep learning-based corn stand counting algorithms for a low-cost, ultra-compact 3D printed and autonomous field robot for agricultural operations. Currently, plant traits, such as emergence rate, biomass, vigor, and stand counting, are measured manually. This is highly labor-intensive and prone to errors. The robot, termed TerraSentia, is designed to automate the measurement of plant traits for efficient phenotyping as an alternative to manual measurements. In this paper, we formulate a Nonlinear Moving Horizon Estimator that identifies key terrain parameters using onboard robot sensors and a learning-based Nonlinear Model Predictive Control that ensures high precision path tracking in the presence of unknown wheel-terrain interaction. Moreover, we develop a machine vision algorithm designed to enable an ultra-compact ground robot to count corn stands by driving through the fields autonomously. The algorithm leverages a deep network to detect corn plants in images, and a visual tracking model to re-identify detected objects at different time steps. We collected data from 53 corn plots in various fields for corn plants around 14 days after emergence (stage V3 - V4). The robot predictions have agreed well with the ground truth with C robot =1.02×C human -0.86 and a correlation coefficient R=0.96. The mean relative error given by the algorithm is -3.78%, and the standard deviation is 6.76%. These results indicate a first and significant step towards autonomous robot-based real-time phenotyping using low-cost, ultra-compact ground robots for corn and potentially other crops.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part III: Boundary-Layer Parametrizations

Numerical weather prediction is often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 4.0 was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City. We compare three different simulations in their ability to reproduce the observations, each using a different boundary-layer parametrization. Specifically, we examine the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) boundary-layer parametrizations. All three predict the wind speed well during the day but overpredict it at night. The MYNN parametrization is better than MYJ at predicting the daytime turbulence in the surface layer, but both underpredict the nocturnal turbulence. Additionally, the MYJ parametrization is best at predicting the reciprocal Obukhov length, while MYNN and YSU both significantly overpredict thermal stability. Reconstructing the reciprocal Obukhov length from other simulated parameters produces more accurate values for both parametrizations. All three models overpredict the boundary-layer height, particularly under convective conditions. The MYJ parametrization overestimates boundary-layer height the most, while YSU and MYNN have comparable performance with MYNN having an advantage in predicting the stable boundary-layer height. Several days were found where the WRF simulations predict significant deviations from the prevailing diurnal pattern in wind direction, which are not found in the observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of the Surface Fluxes for Heat and Momentum in Unstable Conditions with Machine Learning and Similarity Approaches for the LAFE Data Set

Abstract Measurements of three flux towers operated during the land atmosphere feedback experiment (LAFE) are used to investigate relationships between surface fluxes and variables of the land–atmosphere system. We study these relations by means of two machine learning (ML) techniques: multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). We compare their flux derivation performance with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and a similarity relationship using the bulk Richardson number (BRN). The ML approaches outperform MOST and BRN. Best agreement with the observations is achieved for the friction velocity. For the sensible heat flux and even more so for the latent heat flux, MOST and BRN deviate from the observations while MLP and XGB yield more accurate predictions. Using MOST and BRN for latent heat flux, the root mean square errors (RMSE) are 107 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 and 121 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 , respectively, as well as the intercepts of the regression lines are $$\approx 110$$ ≈ 110 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 . For the ML methods, the RMSEs reduce to 31 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and 33 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB as well as the intercepts to just 4 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and $$-1$$ - 1 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB with slopes of the regression lines close to 1, respectively. These results indicate significant deficiencies of MOST and BRN, particularly for the derivation of the latent heat flux. In fact, in contrast to the established theories, feature importance weighting demonstrates that the ML methods base their improved derivations on net radiation, the incoming and outgoing shortwave radiations, the air temperature gradient, and the available water contents, but not on the water vapor gradient. The results imply that further studies of surface fluxes and other turbulent variables with ML techniques provide great promise for deriving advanced flux parameterizations and their implementation in land–atmosphere system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topography-Induced TKE Budget Behavior Over an Amazon Forest

Data from three different heights (35, 50 and 81 m) of one of the ATTO Project towers in the Amazon forest were used to calculate the TKE (turbulence kinetic energy) budget and some other statistics within the RSL (roughness sublayer). The statistical analyses were carried out for unstable and stable cases. The vertical transport and the vertical advection terms do not explain the imbalances found in the TKE budget, highlighting the impor- tance of horizontal terms in complex terrain. Indeed, patterns independent of the time of day were found for vertical transport, horizontal and vertical velocity skewness, the mean vertical component velocity, and momentum and vertical TKE flux. Here, the highest values of mean vertical velocity were observed from the direction where there is a valley near the tower, which may indicate a topographical effect. Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) predictions for the mean velocity gradient, strictly applicable only in the inertial sublayer (ISL), gave reasonable predictions at 35 and 50 m, but dimensionless dissipation rates displayed large scatter. At 81 m, there were clear deviations from MOST for the two functions, disclosing the effect of topography. In addition, a neutral LES (large-eddy simu- lation) study showed good agreement with tower data for the same general wind direction.

ATTO project↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗