Results for “defense” — Page 36

NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Asteroid↗

NASA NTRS2017

A PCR Based Microbial Monitoring Alternative Method of Detection and Identification of Microbes Aboard ISS

Previous research has shown that microorganisms and potential human pathogens have been detected on the International Space Station (ISS) with additional introduction of new microflora occurring with every exchange of crew or addition of equipment and supplies. These microbes are readily transferred between crew and subsystems (i.e. ECLSS, environmental control and life support systems). As this can be detrimental to astronaut health and optimal performance of ISS systems, monitoring of systems such as ECLSS to include identification of microbial contaminants could prevent adverse effects on human health and life support systems. Current monitoring on ISS is laborious and utilizes culture based methods followed by sample return to Earth for complete analysis. Future, long-distance spaceflight missions will require real-time monitoring capabilities that enable efficient and rapid assessments of the microbial environment allowing for expedited decisions and more targeted response to cope with anomalies. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR), a molecular microbial monitoring method was chosen and numerous PCR instruments investigated for their potential to perform in microgravity conditions. Using ISS as a test bed for PCR verification in microgravity will enable NASA to assess whether molecular based microbiological sensors may be components of reliable, closed-loop life support and habitation systems in spacecraft, enhancing infrastructure capabilities through increased efficiency, reliability, and time savings by enabling sample analysis on orbit. NASA selected the Water Monitoring Suite as one of the rapid spaceflight hardware demonstration activities utilizing a streamlined process to minimize the time required to fly experimental flight hardware. The RAZOR EX (BioFire Defense, Salt Lake City, UT) system was part of the water monitoring suite and is a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time PCR instrument designed for field work. The RAZOR EX was originally designed for Department of Defense (DoD) under a small business innovative research (SBIR) grant and is ruggedized, compact and provides a rapid, sample to answer in less than an hour. PCR assays using a fluorescent probe were optimized and spiked with known concentrations of DNA (Pseudomonas aeruginosa) ranging from 0.002 to 20 ng. PCR reagents were lyophilized and configured in customized pouches and tested for flight readiness. Three types of water were used to rehydrate the reagents and demonstrate the fidelity of the PCR reaction in microgravity. Molecular grade deionized water served as a control while filtered and unfiltered ISS potable water served to test for chemical or biological inhibitors. All three types were compared to parallel ground test results. Nine tests were run on ISS (3 of each water type) and the critical threshold cycle (Ct) was compared to parallel ground tests completed at Kennedy Space Center, FL and Johnson Space Center, TX. All concentrations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa DNA were detected. A comparison of the Ct produced in real time PCR indicated similarity between flight and ground samples. There appeared to be no significant difference between flight or ground PCR reactions or between any of the three water types. This testing demonstrated the ability to perform molecular testing during spaceflight operations with similar sensitivity. It will allow for future ground development of molecular protocols and minimize the need for spaceflight testing. Future testing will include development of additional targets including environmental and health related organisms.

Christina Khodadad↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cyber-Attack Methods, Why They Work on Us, and What to Do

Basic cyber-attack methods are well documented, and even automated with user-friendly GUIs (Graphical User Interfaces). Entire suites of attack tools are legal, conveniently packaged, and freely downloadable to anyone; more polished versions are sold with vendor support. Our team ran some of these against a selected set of projects within our organization to understand what the attacks do so that we can design and validate defenses against them. Some existing defenses were effective against the attacks, some less so. On average, every machine had twelve easily identifiable vulnerabilities, two of them "critical". Roughly 5% of passwords in use were easily crack-able. We identified a clear set of recommendations for each project, and some common patterns that emerged among them all.

cybersecurity↗

NASA NTRS2017

Spaceflight Activates Autophagy Programs and the Proteasome in Mouse Liver

Increased oxidative stress is an unavoidable consequence of exposure to the space environment. Our previous studies showed that mice exposed to space for 13.5 days had decreased glutathione levels, suggesting impairments in oxidative defense. Here we performed unbiased, unsupervised and integrated multi-'omic analysis of metabolomic and transcriptomic datasets from mice flown aboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis. Enrichment analyses of metabolite and gene sets showed significant changes in osmolyte concentrations and pathways related to glycerophospholipid and sphingolipid metabolism, likely consequences of relative dehydration of the spaceflight mice. However, we also found increased enrichment of aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis and purine metabolic pathways, concomitant with enrichment of genes associated with autophagy and the ubiquitin-proteasome. When taken together with a down-regulation in NRF2-mediated signaling, our analyses suggest that decreased hepatic oxidative defense may lead to aberrant tRNA post-translational processing, induction of degradation programs and senescence-associated mitochondrial dysfunction in response to the spaceflight environment..

Autophagy↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗

NASA NTRS2018

Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Water Security

River basins for which transboundary coordination and governance is a factor are of concern to US national security, yet there is often a lack of sufficient data-driven information available at the needed time horizons to inform transboundary water decision-making for the intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. To address this need, a two-day workshop entitled Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Global Water Security was held in August 2017 in Maryland. The committee that organized and convened the workshop (the Organizing Committee) included representatives from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and the US Air Force. The primary goal of the workshop was to advance knowledge on the current US Government and partners' technical information needs and gaps to support national security interests in relation to transboundary water. The workshop also aimed to identify avenues for greater communication and collaboration among the scientific, intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. The discussion around transboundary water was considered in the context of the greater global water challenges facing US national security.

Hakimdavar, Raha↗

NASA NTRS2019

Persistent Assets in Zero-G and on Planetary Surfaces: Enabled by Modular Technology and Robotic Operations

Space operations are on the cusp of a revolutionary new operational paradigm that leverages modular systems and recurring robotic visits to “Persistent Assets” enabling asset maintenance, repair, and enhancement. A “Persistent Asset” is defined here as any zero-g or planetary surface system that benefits from in-space assembly (ISA) or multiple visits for servicing, repairs, and upgrades. This term is an extension of the term “Persistent Platform” used by Ms. Pam Melroy at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to describe the vision of the Agency for a geosynchronous Earth orbiting platform. In this paper, the term “Persistent Asset” is introduced to encompass not only zero-g systems; such as telecommunication platforms, Earth observing science platform, Department of Defense platforms, and scientific telescope systems, but also planetary surface systems that support missions such as human outposts, science stations, and in-situ resource utilization systems. In contrast to the current state of the art, where space systems are typically launched as a single unit and operated without any further physical intervention after launch; future systems will be maintained, enhanced and reconfigured in-situ as new technology becomes available or mission needs change. Visits to the persistent asset can be regularly scheduled or dictated by funding constraints enabling a pay-as-you-go approach, which is largely independent of time-constraints and able to exploit launches of opportunity. In this paper, historical in-space assembly activities which relied heavily on astronaut extra-vehicular activity will be reviewed as well as early robotic assembly activities. These approaches will be contrasted with emerging modular approaches supporting realization of a new Persistent Asset operational paradigm. The paper will define attributes of the Persistent Asset paradigm and illustrate advantages by applying the paradigm to two relevant applications: 1) a large space telescope backing structure and 2) the backbone structure for a solar electric transport vehicle. Finally, recently developed unique Persistent Asset elements (modules, and interface approaches) will be described.

Doggett, William R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Creating and Using Sensors That Tell Us About Precipitation

Precipitation is deceptively simple to measure - just put a container in the back yard - and this was the only technology available until radar was discovered to be capable of sensing precipitation in the 1940's,leading to quantitative estimates by the 1970's.Meanwhile, satellite-based sensors started advancing.The first precipitation estimates from space re purposed the existing geosynchronous satellite infrared (GEO-IR) data, but purpose-built passive microwave (PMW) sensors soon became a reality. In 1987, the launch of the first Special Sensor Microwave/Imager on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F08 by the U.S. Department of Defense, and their decision to open the dataset top public use, created a boom in precipitation algorithms that continues to this day. Experimental work to create a global multi-satellite product by Global Precipitation Climatology Project, and then a "virtual constellation"of PMW sensors from satellite agencies around the globe by the NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and by NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, resulted in a new generation of quasi-global multi-satellite precipitation estimates at increasingly fine time and space scales. TRMM and the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement mission have hosted precipitation radars in space, providing critical new quasi-global information about 3-D precipitation structures and enabling improved calibration of the PMW constellation's estimates.

Huffman, George J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Persistent Assets in Zero-G and on Planetary Surfaces: Enabled by Modular Technology and Robotic Operations

Space operations are on the cusp of a revolutionary new operational paradigm that leverages modular systems and recurring robotic visits to “Persistent Assets” enabling asset maintenance, repair, and enhancement. A “Persistent Asset” is defined here as any zero-g or planetary surface system that benefits from in-space assembly (ISA) or multiple visits for servicing, repairs, and upgrades. This term is an extension of the term “Persistent Platform” used by Ms. Pam Melroy at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to describe the vision of the Agency for a geosynchronous Earth orbiting platform. In this paper, the term “Persistent Asset” is introduced to encompass not only zero-g systems; such as telecommunication platforms, Earth observing science platform, Department of Defense platforms, and scientific telescope systems, but also planetary surface systems that support missions such as human outposts, science stations, and in-situ resource utilization systems. In contrast to the current state of the art, where space systems are typically launched as a single unit and operated without any further physical intervention after launch; future systems will be maintained, enhanced and reconfigured in-situ as new technology becomes available or mission needs change. Visits to the persistent asset can be regularly scheduled or dictated by funding constraints enabling a pay-as-you-go approach, which is largely independent of time-constraints and able to exploit launches of opportunity. In this paper, historical in-space assembly activities which relied heavily on astronaut extra-vehicular activity will be reviewed as well as early robotic assembly activities. These approaches will be contrasted with emerging modular approaches supporting realization of a new Persistent Asset operational paradigm. The paper will define attributes of the Persistent Asset paradigm and illustrate advantages by applying the paradigm to two relevant applications: 1) a large space telescope backing structure and 2) the backbone structure for a solar electric transport vehicle. Finally, recently developed unique Persistent Asset elements (modules, and interface approaches) will be described.

William R Doggett↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗

NASA NTRS2010

Report of the 1st SMAP Applications Workshop

The NASA Earth Science Division has made a commitment to “discover and demonstrate applications that inform resource management, policy development and decision making” (NASA Earth Science Division Applied Sciences Program, Program Strategy, 2010–2015). The NASA mission teams have the opportunity to take a lead role in meeting this challenge. A primary goal of the SMAP mission is to engage SMAP end users and build broad support for SMAP applications through a transparent and inclusive process. Toward this goal, the SMAP mission formed an open-community SMAP Applications Working Group (ApplWG) with over 150 members. The ApplWG held the first SMAP Applications Workshop on September 9–10, 2009, at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Silver Spring, Maryland. Workshop attendees represented state and federal agencies, operational centers focused on natural hazards and disasters, international organizations, and academia. Introductory speakers from NOAA, US Geological Survey (USGS), US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Environment Canada, and US Department of Defense (DoD) addressed applications that included floods and droughts, early famine warning, crop assessments, human health, and defense.

O’Neill, P.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles and Systems Support Safer Aeronautics Research

Area-I partnered with the NASA SBIR/STTR program to develop Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UASs) that supported advanced aeronautics research. The company’s developments with NASA culminated in the Prototype-Technology Evaluator and Research Aircraft (PTERA), a versatile UAS enabling low-risk flight experiments that are safer than piloted tests and more dynamic than wind tunnel testing. From the initial seed funding from NASA, Area-I continued to hone its abilities in UAS development, finding success with the Department of Defense and leading to the company’s acquisition by Anduril Industries—a $4.6 billion defense technology company—in 2021.

Bruce R Cogan↗

NASA NTRS2020

CyberGAN: Generating High-fidelity Cybersecurity Data With Generative Adversarial Networks

Machine learning for cyber defense offers the promise of detecting adversarial activity against the ground data systems managing critical space assets. A fundamental challenge facing machine learning research in cybersecurity is the lack of high-fidelity, shareable datasets for robust evaluation and testing of machine learning-based solutions. High-fidelity, real-world datasets are necessary for reliable benchmarking of nominal system behavior and malicious activity. Unfortunately, such realistic datasets of both nominal and adversarial activity are rarely shared publicly by data owners due to security and privacy concerns. Besides, the available adversarial data is sparse, which makes training models on malicious activity much harder. This situation has impeded and continues to impede the research and successful adoption of machine learning methods for cyber defense. Researchers have dealt with this problem by generating data within a low-fidelity lab environment, using classified and thus unshareable datasets, or downloading low-fidelity public datasets made available by others. We propose an innovative solution to the problem by employing machine learning methods to generate high-fidelity data. Specifically, we propose the use of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate high-fidelity data for cybersecurity purposes. GANs have found successful image processing and natural language applications, but have not yet been investigated for cyber data generation. Our proposed approach first involves training the `discriminator' network of the GAN with a sample of real-world data consisting of malicious and nominal samples. We then use the `generator' network to generate new high-fidelity data samples consisting of an appropriate mix of malicious and nominal activity. We demonstrate applications of our architecture by generating high-fidelity cybersecurity data containing both malicious and nominal samples. We thoroughly evaluate the fidelity of our generated data using heuristics and evaluate its usefulness for machine learning applications using three different datasets. Overall, our approach results in high-fidelity, shareable datasets.

Zhang, Yuening↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Gaps for Rapid Response Missions to Near-Earth Objects, Interstellar Objects, and Long-Period Comets

The last several years has seen the discovery of the first two interstellar objects, the first ever planetary defense mission, recommendation for a rapid reconnaissance planetary defense demonstration, and the continued emergence of a robust commercial small satellite industry. The present and near future also consist of emerging next-generation observatories including Vera Rubin and NEO Surveyor. These seemingly disparate events converge in the context of rapid response: a cross-cutting capability that would enable NASA and the international community to quickly discover and respond to an emerging target such as a near-Earth object (NEO), interstellar object (ISO), or long-period comet (LPC) either for rapid characterization of a potential threat, or revolutionary science that would inform early solar system formation and evolution. In late October 2022, subject matter experts gathered at the California Institute of Technology in a week-long workshop sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) to address enabling mission concepts for rapid response and key technology gaps (final report in progress). These experts concurred that the ability to respond on the order of a few months is necessary for rapid in-situ characterization of a NEO, ISO, or LPC, and that while there are several technology gaps, this capability could be realized in the near future.

Technology gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗