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Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model
Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.
Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using 139 fb -1 of ATLAS data
Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in $pp$ collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 -1 fb of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region.
The growth of density perturbations in the last ~10 billion years from tomographic large-scale structure data
In order to investigate the origin of the ongoing tension between the amplitude of matter fluctuations measured by weak lensing experiments at low redshifts and the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, we reconstruct the evolution of this amplitude from z ~ 2 using existing large-scale structure data. To do so, we decouple the linear growth of density inhomogeneities from the background expansion, and constrain its redshift dependence making use of a combination of 6 different data sets, including cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB lensing. We analyze these data under a consistent harmonic-space angular power spectrum-based pipeline. We show that current data constrain the amplitude of fluctuations mostly in the range 0.2 < z < 0.7, where it is lower than predicted by . This difference is mostly driven by current cosmic shear data, although the growth histories reconstructed from different data combinations are consistent with each other, and we find no evidence of systematic deviations in any particular experiment. In spite of the tension with , the data are well-described by the model, albeit with a lower value of S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 . As part of our analysis, we find constraints on this parameter of S 8 = 0.7781 ± 0.0094 (68% confidence level), reaching almost percent-level errors comparable with CMB measurements, and 3.4σ away from the value found by .
Utilizing CellBox to Describe Varied Dynamical Systems
CellBox is a hybrid modeling framework that integrates machine-learning approaches with explicit mathematical modeling to determine the behavior of dynamical systems, intended for determining the complex interactions of molecule and phenotype within a cellular environment using perturbation/response-based data. The original work utilized analysis of a melanoma cell line, SK-Mel-133, which we sought to expand to and evaluate effectiveness in describing other nonlinear systems both within and outside of biology. We evaluated with two models. One model is based upon the free-fall of an object under a velocity-dependent drag force; this produced inherent perturbation/response data. The other model is based upon a form of mass-action molecular kinetics; for this, we ran the simulation to steady state in each species for each perturbation and select the steady state as input for CellBox. We determined that CellBox, outside of its original use case, can still strongly predict even non-biological dynamical systems in the small-perturbation regime, with r = 0.99977 to 0.85123, p < 0.05 for freefall. However, CellBox cannot accurately predict behavior within large-perturbation regimes, p >> 0.05 for freefall. In addition, we performed a naïve comparison of CellBox network structure to known network structure in the mass-action model to assess accuracy.
A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems
The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.
Characterization of the pressure coefficient of manganin and temperature evolution of pressure in piston-cylinder cells
Here, we report measurements of the temperature- and pressure-dependent resistance, R ( T , p ), of a manganin manometer in a 4 He-gas pressure setup from room temperature down to the solidification temperature of 4 He ( T solid ~ 50 K at 0.8 GPa) for pressures, p , between 0 GPa and ~0.8 GPa. The same manganin wire manometer was also measured in a piston-cylinder cell (PCC) from 300 K down to 1.8 K and for pressures between 0 GPa and ~2 GPa. From these data, we infer the temperature and pressure dependence of the pressure coefficient of manganin, α ( T , p ), defined by the equation R p = (1 + αp ) R 0 , where R 0 and R p are the resistances of manganin at ambient pressure and finite pressure, respectively. Our results indicate that upon cooling, α first decreases, then goes through a broad minimum at ~120 K, and increases again toward lower temperatures. In addition, we find that α is almost pressure-independent at T ≳ 60 K up to p ~ 2 GPa, but shows a pronounced p dependence at T ≲ 60 K. Using this manganin manometer, we demonstrate that p overall decreases with decreasing temperature in the PCC for the full pressure range and that the size of the pressure difference between room temperature and low temperatures ( T = 1.8 K), Δ p , decreases with increasing pressure. We also compare the pressure values inferred from the manganin manometer with the low-temperature pressure, determined from the superconducting transition temperature of elemental lead (Pb). As a result of these data and analysis, we propose a practical algorithm to infer the evolution of pressure with temperature in a PCC.
The updated ITPA global H-mode confinement database: description and analysis
The multi-machine ITPA Global H-mode Confinement Database has been upgraded with new data from JET with the ITER-like wall and ASDEX Upgrade with the full tungsten wall. This paper describes the new database and presents results of regression analysis to estimate the global energy confinement scaling in H-mode plasmas using a standard power law. Various subsets of the database are considered, focusing on type of wall and divertor materials, confinement regime (all H-modes, ELMy H or ELM-free) and ITER-like constraints. Apart from ordinary least squares, two other, robust regression techniques are applied, which take into account uncertainty on all variables. Regression on data from individual devices shows that, generally, the confinement dependence on density and the power degradation are weakest in the fully metallic devices. Using the multi-machine scalings, predictions are made of the confinement time in a standard ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER. The uncertainty on the scaling parameters is discussed with a view to practically useful error bars on the parameters and predictions. One of the derived scalings for ELMy H-modes on an ITER-like subset is studied in particular and compared to the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling in engineering and dimensionless form. Transformation of this new scaling from engineering variables to dimensionless quantities is shown to result in large error bars on the dimensionless scaling. Regression analysis in the space of dimensionless variables is therefore proposed as an alternative, yielding acceptable estimates for the dimensionless scaling. The new scaling, which is dimensionally correct within the uncertainties, suggests that some dependencies of confinement in the multi- machine database can be reconciled with parameter scans in individual devices. This includes vanishingly small dependence of confinement on line-averaged density and normalized plasma pressure (β), as well as a noticeable, positive dependence on effective atomic mass and plasma triangularity. Extrapolation of this scaling to ITER yields a somewhat lower confinement time compared to the IPB98(y, 2) prediction, possibly related to the considerably weaker dependence on major radius in the new scaling (slightly above linear). Further studies are needed to compare more flexible regression models with the power law used here. In addition, data from more devices concerning possible ‘hidden variables’ could help to determine their influence on confinement, while adding data in sparsely populated areas of the parameter space may contribute to further disentangling some of the global confinement dependencies in tokamak plasmas.
Electricity Baseline 2022 Background Data and Log File
The ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0) was used to generate the 2022 electricity baseline: a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data. ElectricityLCI implements a local data store for downloading and accessing public data on an individual's computer. The data store follows the folder definition provided by USEPA's esupy Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/esupy), which utilized the appdirs Python dependency (https://pypi.org/project/appdirs/). This submission includes the background data used to generate the 2022 electricity baseline inventory. Each zip archive stores the source files as found in their data stores. Sub-folders in each of the data stores are archived separately. For example, stewi.zip contains the JSON files, while stewi.facility.zip is the 'facility' sub-folder of stewi data store that stores the parquet files. To reproduce the data store, extract each zip file and drag-and-drop sub-folders in to their appropriate root folders to recreate the data stores, then copy the root folders to your data store folder (as returned by running the following on the command line: `python -c "import appdirs; print(appdirs.user_data_dir())"`). The main five data stores include: 'electricitylci', 'facilitymatcher', 'fedelemflowlist', 'stewi', and 'stewicombo'. The log file generated by the 2022 model run is also included, which contains the statements at the DEBUG level and above.
Electricity Baseline 2021 Background Data and Log File
The ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0) was used to generate the 2021 electricity baseline: a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data. ElectricityLCI implements a local data store for downloading and accessing public data on an individual's computer. The data store follows the folder definition provided by USEPA's esupy Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/esupy), which utilizes the appdirs Python dependency (https://pypi.org/project/appdirs/). An overview of the ElectricityLCI data stores may be found on the README (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/blob/v2.0/README.md#data-store). This submission includes the background data used to generate the 2021 electricity baseline inventory. Each zip archive stores the source files as found in their data stores. Sub-folders in each of the data stores are archived separately. For example, stewi.zip contains the JSON files, while stewi.facility.zip is the 'facility' sub-folder of stewi data store that stores the parquet files. To reproduce the data store, extract each zip file and drag-and-drop sub-folders in to their appropriate root folders to recreate the data stores, then copy the root folders to your data store folder (as returned by running the following on the command line: python -c "import appdirs; print(appdirs.user_data_dir())"). The main five data stores include: 'electricitylci', 'facilitymatcher', 'fedelemflowlist', 'stewi', and 'stewicombo'. The log file generated by the 2021 model run is also included, which contains the statements at the DEBUG level and above.
Electricity Baseline 2020 Background Data and Log File
The ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0) was used to generate the 2020 electricity baseline: a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data. ElectricityLCI implements a local data store for downloading and accessing public data on an individual's computer. The data store follows the folder definition provided by USEPA's esupy Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/esupy), which utilizes the appdirs Python dependency (https://pypi.org/project/appdirs/). An overview of the ElectricityLCI data stores may be found on the README (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/blob/v2.0/README.md#data-store). This submission includes the background data used to generate the 2020 electricity baseline inventory. Each zip archive stores the source files as found in their data stores. Sub-folders in each of the data stores are archived separately. For example, stewi.zip contains the JSON files, while stewi.facility.zip is the 'facility' sub-folder of stewi data store that stores the parquet files. To reproduce the data store, extract each zip file and drag-and-drop sub-folders in to their appropriate root folders to recreate the data stores, then copy the root folders to your data store folder (as returned by running the following on the command line: python -c "import appdirs; print(appdirs.user_data_dir())"). The main five data stores include: 'electricitylci', 'facilitymatcher', 'fedelemflowlist', 'stewi', and 'stewicombo'. The log file generated by the 2020 model run is also included, which contains the statements at the DEBUG level and above.
Using AI to predict calibration constants for the central drift chamber in GlueX at Jefferson Lab
The AI for Experimental Controls project team at Jefferson Lab has developed an AI system to control and calibrate a large drift chamber system in near-real time. The AI system will monitor environmental and experimental variables to recommend voltage settings that maintain consistent dE/dx gain and optimal resolution throughout the experiment. At present, calibrations are performed after data have been recorded and require a considerable amount of time and attention from experts. The calibrations currently require multiple iterations and depend on accurate tracking information. Our approach uses environmental data, such as atmospheric pressure and gas temperature, and beam conditions, such as the flux of incident particles, as inputs to a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model. For the data taken during the GlueX 2020 run period, the GPR is able to predict the existing gain correction factors to within 3.5%. This talk will briefly describe the development, testing, and future plans for this system at Jefferson Lab.
GaAs Neutron Response Functions and Radiation Damage Metrics
The radiation effects community needs clear, well-documented, neutron energy-dependent responses that can be used in assessing radiation-induced material damage to GaAs semiconductors and for correlating observed radiation-induced changes in the GaAs electronic properties with computed damage metrics. In support of the objective, this document provides: a) a clearly defined set of relevant neutron response functions for use in dosimetry applications; b) clear mathematical expressions for the defined response functions; and c) updated quantitative values for the energy- dependent response functions that reflect the best current nuclear data and modelling. This document recaps the legacy response functions. It then surveys the latest nuclear data and updates the recommended response function to support current GaAs damage studies. A detailed tabulation for six of the energy-dependent response functions is provided in an Appendix.
A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data
This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.
Host-specific and tissue-dependent orchestration of microbiome community structure in traditional rice paddy ecosystems
Abstract Background and aim Rice and duckweed are two monocotyledonous plants that naturally coexist in paddy fields. While the presence of duckweed in paddy fields significantly improves rice productivity, the interplay between soil microbes and the two plant hosts in this agroecosystem remains unexplored. Methods We compared the bacterial community structure between duckweed, rice and soil from multiple rice paddies. We also isolated bacteria from these communities and characterized their modes of bacterial colonization and plant growth-promotion using model plants. Results Our data indicate that host-specific and tissue-dependent factors reproducibly orchestrate the bacterial community structure associated with their plant hosts. This is corroborated by results from culture-dependent approaches in which the dominant genus Pantoea isolated from rice aerial tissues can strongly attach and colonize gnotobiotic duckweed in spite of the low representation of this bacterial genus in the natural duckweed microbiome. Our study identified a core of 254 bacterial taxa that are consistently found in all rice and duckweed tissue samples from rice paddy fields. Furthermore, characterizing auxin-producing bacteria isolates from both plant species identified potential plant growth-promoting bacteria that may improve growth for both duckweed and rice in paddy fields. Conclusions Results from this work provide evidence for the importance of the host tissue and species context in determining plant colonization by microbes in the paddy field system. The resources generated in this study could facilitate the agronomic deployment of microbes for more sustainable rice production.
A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology
Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.
The impact of the fiducial cosmology assumption on BAO distance scale measurements
ABSTRACT Standard analysis pipelines for measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) in galaxy surveys make use of a fiducial cosmological model to guide the data compression required to transform from observed redshifts and angles to the measured angular and radial BAO peak positions. In order to remove any dependence on the fiducial cosmology from the results, all models compared to the data should mimic the compression and its dependence on the fiducial model. In practice, approximations are made when testing models: (1) There is assumed to be no residual dependence on the fiducial cosmology after reconstruction, (2) differences in the distance–redshift relationship are assumed to match a linear scaling, and (3) differences in clustering between true and fiducial models are assumed to be removed by the free parameters used to null the non-BAO signal. We test these approximations using the current standard measurement procedure with a set of halo catalogues from the aemulus suite of N-body simulations, which span a range of wCDM cosmological models. We focus on reconstruction of the primordial BAO and locating the BAO. For the range of wCDM cosmologies covered by the aemulus suite, we find no evidence for systematic errors in the measured BAO shift parameters α∥ and α⊥ to $\lt 0.1\%$. However, the measured errors $\sigma _{\alpha _{\parallel }}$ and $\sigma _{\alpha _{\bot }}$ show a notable absolute increase by up to +0.001 and +0.002, respectively, in the case that the fiducial cosmology does not match the truth. These effects on the inferred BAO scale will be important, given the precision of measurements expected from future surveys including DESI, Euclid, and WFIRST.
Assessing First-Order Dependence of Thermolytic HGR on Glycolate at Low Glycolate Concentrations
This report describes the results of testing performed to investigate the assumed first-order behavior of glycolate at low concentrations in the current Glycolate Thermolytic Hydrogen Generation Rate (HGR) expression. Four experiments were performed at 100 °C using a simulant based on a Tank 28 supernate sample, and the glycolate concentration in the experiments ranged from 5 - 175 mg/L. The thermolytic HGR results from all tests were well-described by the current Glycolate Thermolytic HGR Model. A linear fit of the Ln(HGR) and Ln(Gly) gave a suggested reaction order of 1.15. Additionally, by taking into account prior knowledge on how varying chemistry impacts the HGR, a reaction order of 0.99 was obtained. Both cases suggest that the data validates the assumed first-order dependence of HGR on glycolate.