Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cost model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36

Porting the WAVEWATCH III (v6.07) wave action source terms to GPU

Abstract. Surface gravity waves play a critical role in several processes, including mixing, coastal inundation, and surface fluxes. Despite the growing literature on the importance of ocean surface waves, wind–wave processes have traditionally been excluded from Earth system models (ESMs) due to the high computational costs of running spectral wave models. The development of the Next Generation Ocean Model for the DOE’s (Department of Energy) E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Project partly focuses on the inclusion of a wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), into E3SM. WW3, which was originally developed for operational wave forecasting, needs to be computationally less expensive before it can be integrated into ESMs. To accomplish this, we take advantage of heterogeneous architectures at DOE leadership computing facilities and the increasing computing power of general-purpose graphics processing units (GPUs). This paper identifies the wave action source terms, W3SRCEMD, as the most computationally intensive module in WW3 and then accelerates them via GPU. Our experiments on two computing platforms, Kodiak (P100 GPU and Intel(R) Xeon(R) central processing unit, CPU, E5-2695 v4) and Summit (V100 GPU and IBM POWER9 CPU) show respective average speedups of 2× and 4× when mapping one Message Passing Interface (MPI) per GPU. An average speedup of 1.4× was achieved using all 42 CPU cores and 6 GPUs on a Summit node (with 7 MPI ranks per GPU). However, the GPU speedup over the 42 CPU cores remains relatively unchanged (∼ 1.3×) even when using 4 MPI ranks per GPU (24 ranks in total) and 3 MPI ranks per GPU (18 ranks in total). This corresponds to a 35 %–40 % decrease in both simulation time and usage of resources. Due to too many local scalars and arrays in the W3SRCEMD subroutine and the huge WW3 memory requirement, GPU performance is currently limited by the data transfer bandwidth between the CPU and the GPU. Ideally, OpenACC routine directives could be used to further improve performance. However, W3SRCEMD would require significant code refactoring to make this possible. We also discuss how the trade-off between the occupancy, register, and latency affects the GPU performance of WW3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Advanced Meso-Scale Peridynamic Modeling Technology using High-Performance Computing for Cost-Effective Product Design and Testing of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites in Light-weight Vehicles

We study a peridynamic composite modeling technology based on the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, implemented in the commercial LS-DYNA software, for modeling and prediction of failure in carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites. The proposed technology is developed for the material failure analysis at the meso-scale, which provides the prevailing fiber-matrix interaction mechanism, without adoption of the representative volume element method and thus avoiding complicated numerical calibration procedures. Three types of experimental tests—in-plane coupon test, out-of-plane coupon test, and a component crash test—are simulated in a high-performance computing environment to assess the performance of the proposed peridynamic composite modeling technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SNM Radiation Signature Classification Using Different Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Models

The timely detection of special nuclear material (SNM) transfers between nuclear facilities is an important monitoring objective in nuclear nonproliferation. Persistent monitoring enabled by successful detection and characterization of radiological material movements could greatly enhance the nuclear nonproliferation mission in a range of applications. Supervised machine learning can be used to signal detections when material is present if a model is trained on sufficient volumes of labeled measurements. However, the nuclear monitoring data needed to train robust machine learning models can be costly to label since radiation spectra may require strict scrutiny for characterization. Therefore, this work investigates the application of semi-supervised learning to utilize both labeled and unlabeled data. As a demonstration experiment, radiation measurements from sodium iodide (NaI) detectors are provided by the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operating Scenarios (MINOS) venture at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as sample data. Anomalous measurements are identified using a method of statistical hypothesis testing. After background estimation, an energy-dependent spectroscopic analysis is used to characterize an anomaly based on its radiation signatures. In the absence of ground-truth information, a labeling heuristic provides data necessary for training and testing machine learning models. Supervised logistic regression serves as a baseline to compare three semi-supervised machine learning models: co-training, label propagation, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). In each case, the semi-supervised models outperform logistic regression, suggesting that unlabeled data can be valuable when training and demonstrating value in semi-supervised nonproliferation implementations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Thermochemical Platform Analysis WBS: 2.1.0.302

The objective of the NREL Thermochemical Platform Analysis (WBS 2.1.0.302) project is to inform and guide R&D priorities for thermal and catalytic conversion processes by providing process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This is achieved through close collaboration with researchers and external experts, along with the use of both commercially available modeling tools and the development or use of collaboration-derived domain-specific tools and resources, such as refinery integration, kinetic and reactor models, phase equilibrium models, and pertinent bio-products market studies. This project is directly aligned with DOE-BETO goals, with the enabling of technology advancements and cost reduction for biomass derived biofuels being one of its primary objectives. TEA-guided research facilitated by this project has helped achieve significant modeled cost reductions for the ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) pathway and the indirect liquefaction (IDL) pathway for the conversion of syngas to high-octane gasoline (HOG). Cost reduction through refinery integration, development of valuable co-products, and other options are being identified for future research to help reduce the modeled MFSP to $2.50/GGE by 2030. Additional priorities anticipated in the future, such as the use of renewable electricity for liquid fuels and products, and emphasis on waste utilization are also being explored in conjunction with research on catalytic utilization of syngas and other gases (including CO2). Industry-relevant parameters are given deliberate attention as part of the work done under this project to help answer questions important for future commercialization and address associated risks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High-Octane Gasoline from Lignocellulosic Biomass via Syngas and Methanol/Dimethyl Ether Intermediates: 2020 State of Technology

The 2020 state of technology (SOT) serves as an update to the 2019 SOT report and details the techno-economic analysis (TEA) results for producing high-octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL). This report only describes changes to the experimental and analysis results from previous SOTs; more details regarding the full process design can be found in the 2015 design report. The conversion pathway presented in this report includes the gasification of biomass, steam reforming and cleanup of the syngas, followed by the conversion of the syngas to HOG via methanol and dimethyl-ether (DME) intermediates. Research efforts in 2020 included the collection of experimental results over a variety of isobutane (iC4) to DME ratios in the feed of the DME-to-HOG reactor, enabling the TEA to identify the effect on modeled product yield and cost. Additionally, a significant re-build of the Aspen Plus model allowed for better integration of new research, however underlying conceptual and economic assumptions remain the same as those detailed in the 2015 deign report. The 2020 SOT also considers the potential for federal carbon tax credits from CO 2 capture in the acid-gas removal step and the impact on the final minimum fuel selling price.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Phase 1: Duke Energy Zero Emission Resource Integration Study (ZERIS); Phase 2: Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy (Final Report)

Phase 1: This statement of work makes up Phase 1 of a larger effort. During this Phase 1 effort, NREL will work with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of new solar power into the Duke Energy power system under a variety of different penetrations scenarios, with a maximum of ten (10) full scenarios examined. The existing fleet, particularly the nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessments and discussions. Duke Energy is looking to quantify how much solar generation its system can handle. NREL will work with Duke Energy to quantify solar potential, identify likely integration challenges and possible opportunities for wind, storage, demand side resources and other technologies. Phase 2: This Statement of Work consists of a follow-up effort (Phase 2) to a recently completed Phase 1 modeling effort. During Phase 2, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of variable generation resources (wind and solar) and storage into Duke Energy's system in the Carolinas. The existing fleet, particularly nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessment and discussions. This Statement of Work also includes an extension to Phase II of the Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy. In this extension, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to extend the production cost analysis developed in Phase II to 2018 weather and load data for Duke Energy's territory. This extension leverages the modeling tools and datasets developed as part of Phase II. The analysis will compare results from Phase II (using 2012 weather and load) with 2018 results to assess system operations with increased penetration of renewables and storage. Simplifying assumptions will be made for modeling Duke Energy's neighbors in the production cost model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

J-PLUS: Support vector regression to measure stellar parameters

Stellar parameters are among the most important characteristics in studies of stars which, in traditional methods, are based on atmosphere models. However, time, cost, and brightness limits restrain the efficiency of spectral observations. The Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) is an observational campaign that aims to obtain photometry in 12 bands. Owing to its characteristics, J-PLUS data have become a valuable resource for studies of stars. Machine learning provides powerful tools for efficiently analyzing large data sets, such as the one from J-PLUS, and enables us to expand the research domain to stellar parameters. The main goal of this study is to construct a support vector regression (SVR) algorithm to estimate stellar parameters of the stars in the first data release of the J-PLUS observational campaign. The training data for the parameter's regressions are featured with 12-waveband photometry from J-PLUS and are crossidentified with spectrum-based catalogs. These catalogs are from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment, and the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration. We then label them with the stellar effective temperature, the surface gravity, and the metallicity. Ten percent of the sample is held out to apply a blind test. We develop a new method, a multi-model approach, in order to fully take into account, the uncertainties of both the magnitudes and the stellar parameters. The method utilizes more than 200 models to apply the uncertainty analysis. We present a catalog of 2 493 424 stars with the root mean square error of 160 K in the effective temperature regression, 0.35 in the surface gravity regression, and 0.25 in the metallicity regression. We also discuss the advantages of this multi-model approach and compare it to other machine-learning methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessing the Costs of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams Using a Reference Site Model

Hydropower capacity in the United States currently stands at approximately 103 GW, and there are remaining water resources that could help meet the rapidly increasing demand for electricity and ancillary grid services. Existing dams that do not generate power, known as non-powered dams, are a near-term solution to enhance the contribution of hydropower to the US power grid. However, there are thousands of such sites, and the lack of detailed information about their specific characteristics and associated costs presents significant challenges for stakeholders. This study addresses these challenges by developing a reference site model to evaluate the potential costs of hydropower at non-powered dams using currently available technologies. An application of the model reveals a wide range of estimates for capacity, capital costs, levelized cost of electricity, and cost components. While many sites are competitive with current technologies, the majority would need cost-reducing innovations to be viable. Despite the limited available information, the model offers valuable insights into the relative competitiveness of hydropower projects at non-powered dams. The simulation results highlight the need for continued technological advancements in hydropower and provide a basis for evaluating the benefits of new innovations.

cost drivers↗

Energy Prediction Impact of the Space Level Occupancy Schedule for a Primary School

By using the same occupant schedule for all spaces, a building level occupancy schedule in building energy modelling can reduce the cost and time of data collection, especially for large-scale simulations or when detailed occupancy data cannot be obtained. However, by describing the unique occupancy status in each space, a space level schedule can better reflect real-world scenarios. This research investigates the energy prediction impact of a space level occupancy schedule for primary school modelling in 16 ASHRAE climate zones. The results show that when switched from a building level to a space level occupancy schedule, the energy prediction difference is between -1.0% and 0.8%. Generally, the predicted building energy consumption using a space level occupancy schedule is higher than when using a building level occupancy schedule in hot and warm climate zones, but lower in other climate zones.

building energy model↗

Unlocking Metamaterials At The Macro Scale (CRADA Final Report)

This project was part of the Cyclotron Road program, which supports scientific entrepreneurs in their efforts to commercialize novel technologies with potential to address energy, manufacturing and climate related issues. The participants' technology is a lightweight cellular material system which could be applied to a range of products and markets and offer benefits of reduced weight, cost, waste, and carbon footprint. The objective of the project was to investigate potential opportunities and de-risk technical and market barriers in pursuit of successful commercialization. This project’s purpose was to find market pathways and technical roadmaps for commercializing the lightweight cellular material technology. The main problems to overcome are the risks in both tech and market. On the technical side, performance, weight, cost and speed of manufacturing, and other scaleup problems needed to be addressed. On the market side, the challenges included finding product/market fit, developing business models and go to market strategies, and developing commercial relationships within various industries. Our approach typically started with market analysis, in order to identify potential applications where our technology could solve problems and address pain points. To do this, we performed customer discovery, interviewing hundreds of industry stakeholders along all parts of the value chain for a given product or industry. From here, we would develop technoeconomic models which combined aspects of numerical modeling for structural and mechanical performance based on criteria from customers or industry guidelines such as stiffness, strength, weight, and other physical properties. Then, this would be combined with detailed cost models to translate the engineering solution into a manufacturable, scalable product. The challenge here was to have equal or better performance at lower cost and higher speed than existing solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of Low Cost Infrasound Sensor Packages

Sandia National Laboratories has tested and evaluated the performance of the following five models of low-cost infrasound sensors and sensor packages: Camas microphone, Gem Infrasound Logger, InfraBSU sensor, Raspberry Boom, and the Samsung S10 smartphone utilizing the Redvox app. The purpose of this infrasound sensor evaluation is to measure the performance characteristics in such areas as power consumption, sensitivity, self-noise, dynamic range, response, passband, linearity, sensitivity variation due to changes in static pressure and temperature, and sensitivity to vertical acceleration. The infrasound monitoring community has leveraged such sensors and integrated packages in novel ways; better understanding the performance of these units serves the geophysical monitoring community.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Regulation of dhurrin pathway gene expression during Sorghum bicolor development

Plant defence models evaluate the costs and benefits of resource investments at different stages in the life cycle. Poor understanding of the molecular regulation of defence deployment and remobilization hampers accuracy of the predictions. Cyanogenic glucosides, such as dhurrin are phytoanticipins that release hydrogen cyanide upon bio-activation. In this study, RNA-seq was used to investigate the expression of genes involved in the biosynthesis, bio-activation and recycling of dhurrin in Sorghum bicolor . Genes involved in dhurrin biosynthesis were highly expressed in all young developing vegetative tissues (leaves, leaf sheath, roots, stems), tiller buds and imbibing seeds and showed gene specific peaks of expression in leaves during diel cycles. Genes involved in dhurrin bio-activation were expressed early in organ development with organ-specific expression patterns. Genes involved in recycling were expressed at similar levels in the different organ during development, although post-floral initiation when nutrients are remobilized for grain filling, expression of GSTL1 decreased > tenfold in leaves and NITB2 increased > tenfold in stems. Results are consistent with the establishment of a pre-emptive defence in young tissues and regulated recycling related to organ senescence and increased demand for nitrogen during grain filling. This detailed characterization of the transcriptional regulation of dhurrin biosynthesis, bioactivation and remobilization genes during organ and plant development will aid elucidation of gene regulatory networks and signalling pathways that modulate gene expression and dhurrin levels. In-depth knowledge of dhurrin metabolism could improve the yield, nitrogen use efficiency and stress resilience of Sorghum .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Review of Machine Learning Classification Using Quantum Annealing for Real-World Applications

Optimizing the training of a machine learning pipeline helps in reducing training costs and improving model performance. One such optimizing strategy is quantum annealing, which is an emerging computing paradigm that has shown potential in optimizing the training of a machine learning model. The implementation of a physical quantum annealer has been realized by D-wave systems and is available to the research community for experiments. Recent experimental results on a variety of machine learning applications using quantum annealing have shown interesting results where the performance of classical machine learning techniques is limited by limited training data and high dimensional features. This article explores the application of D-wave’s quantum annealer for optimizing machine learning pipelines for real-world classification problems. Finally, we review the application domains on which a physical quantum annealer has been used to train machine learning classifiers. We discuss and analyze the experiments performed on the D-Wave quantum annealer for applications such as image recognition, remote sensing imagery, computational biology, and particle physics. We discuss the possible advantages and the problems for which quantum annealing is likely to be advantageous over classical computation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sizing battery energy storage and PV system in an extreme fast charging station considering uncertainties and battery degradation

In this paper, we present mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulations to obtain optimal sizing for a battery energy storage system (BESS) and solar generation system in an extreme fast charging station (XFCS) to reduce the annualized total cost. The proposed model characterizes a typical year with eight representative scenarios and obtains the optimal energy management for the station and BESS operation to exploit the energy arbitrage for each scenario. Contrasting extant literature, this paper proposes a constant power constant voltage (CPCV) based improved probabilistic approach to model the XFCS charging demand for weekdays and weekends. This paper also accounts for the monthly and annual demand charges based on realistic utility tariffs. Furthermore, BESS life degradation is considered in the model to ensure no replacement is needed during the considered planning horizon. Different from the literature, this paper offers pragmatic MILP formulations to tally BESS charge/discharge cycles using the cumulative charge/discharge energy concept. McCormick relaxations and the Big-M method are utilized to relax the bi-linear terms in the BESS operational constraints. Finally, a robust optimization-based MILP model is proposed and leveraged to account for uncertainties in electricity price, solar generation, and XFCS demand. Case studies were performed to signify the efficacy of the proposed formulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A projection-based analytical Jacobian framework for chemical kinetics applications

A major challenge in simulating complex combustion systems with detailed chemical kinetic models is the cost of integrating the chemical source terms, often done using stiff ODE solvers that require frequent Jacobian evaluations. Using analytically derived Jacobian matrices instead of divided-difference-based numerical Jacobian approximations can significantly reduce the associated computational cost. However, ambiguities arise in the formulation of analytical Jacobians because the chemical state of the system, or state vector, can be expressed in multiple ways, involving variables that are typically not independent from one another. Here, in this work, the consequences of those ambiguities on practical calculations are characterized in detail, and a generalized, projection-based framework is proposed as a mitigation strategy. Performances are assessed in a series of test cases involving a variety of configurations and numerical solution approaches. Results show that with proper treatment, commonly used analytical Jacobian formulations can be considered as equivalent for practical purposes, thereby alleviating concerns that the state vector chosen to express the governing equations and corresponding analytical Jacobian may significantly impact the accuracy of the simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of an enzyme cocktail to bioconvert untapped starch in sweet sorghum processing by-products: Part II. Application and economic potential

Demand for bioethanol and other biochemicals produced from agricultural crops has increased. Sweet sorghum has been identified as a promising bioenergy crop as it can produce starch, sugar, and fibrous biomass. During processing, starch accumulates in the juice sediments and clarification mud. And, while currently not recovered, it can be made accessible for fermentation by enzymatic hydrolysis. The enzymatic hydrolysis of starch in sweet sorghum processing streams was investigated, followed by fermentation of the resulting glucose to ethanol. The juice sediment contained sufficient starch to increase fermentable sugars by 127%, allowing a final ethanol titer of 11.1 vol%. The economics for fermentation of only dissolved sugars (Scenario 1) versus dissolved sugars and hydrolyzed starch (Scenario 2) were compared using a technoeconomic model. Fixed capital cost was found to be similar for both scenarios. For a set harvest period, Scenario 2 could produce 20% more ethanol; however, if the distillation by-product was dried and marketed as animal feed, Scenario 1 was more cost effective. A plant producing 5.6–5.7 Mkg of fuel ethanol per year had a minimum selling price of $0.67/kg of ethanol with concurrent production of animal feed and zero cost sweet sorghum processing. Finally, even with these optimistic assumptions, the estimated production cost was higher than the current wholesale price of fuel ethanol.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗