Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cloud coverage”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36

Physical Processes Governing Atmospheric Trace Constituents Measured from an Aircraft on PEM-Tropics

Before the mission, the PI (principal investigator) was instrumental in securing real-time use of the new 51-level ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological data. During the mission, he provided flight planning and execution guidance as meteorologist for the P-3B. Mr. Yong Zhu computed and plotted meteorological forecast maps using the ECMWF data and transmitted them to the field from MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Dr. John Cho was in the field for the Christmas Island portion to extract data from the on-site NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) radars for local wind profiles that were used at the flight planning meetings. When the power supply for the VHF radar failed, he assisted the NOAA engineer in its repair. After the mission, Mr. Zhu produced meteorological data memos, which were made available to the PEM (Pacific Exploratory Mission)-Tropics B science team on request. An undergraduate student, Ms. Danielle Morse, wrote memos annotating the cloud conditions seen on the aircraft external monitor video tapes. Dr. Cho and the PI circulated a memo regarding the status (and associated problems) of the meteorological measurement systems on the DC-8 and P-3B to the relevant people on the science team. Several papers by members of our project were completed and accepted by JGR (Journal of Geophysical Research) for the first special section on PEM-Tropics B. These papers included coverage of the following topics: 1) examination of boundary layer data; 2) water vapor transport; 3) tropospheric trace constituent layers; 4) summarizations of the meteorological background and events during PEM-Tropics B; 5) concomitant lidar measurements of ozone, water vapor, and aerosol.

Newell, Reginald E.↗

Lightning and Precipitation: Observational Analysis of LIS and PR

Lightning flash rate can identify areas of convective rainfall when the storms are dominated by ice-phase precipitation. Modeling and observational studies indicate that cloud electrification and microphysics are very closely related and it is of great interest to understand the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysical quantities. Analyzing data from the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and the Precipitation Radar (PR), we show a quantitative relationship between microphysical characteristics of thunderclouds and lightning flash rate. We have performed a complete analysis of all data available over the Mediterranean during the TRMM mission and show a range of reflective profiles as a function of lightning activity for both convective and stratiform regimes as well as seasonal variations. Due to the increasing global coverage of lightning detection networks, this kind of study can used to extend the knowledge about thunderstorms and discriminate between different regimes in regions where radar measurements are readilly available.

Adamo, C.↗

A Microwave Pressure Sounder

An instrument to measure atmospheric pressure at the earth's surface from an orbiting satellite would be a valuable addition to the expanding inventory of remote sensors. The subject of this report is such an instrument - the Microwave Pressure Sounder (MPS). It is shown that global-ocean coverage is attainable with sufficient accuracy, resolution and observational frequency for meteorological, oceanographic and climate research applications. Surface pressure can be deduced from a measurement of the absorption by an atmospheric column at a frequency in the wing of the oxygen band centered on 60 GHz. An active multifrequency instrument is needed to make this measurement with sufficient accuracy. The selection of optimum operating frequencies is based upon accepted models of surface reflection, oxygen, water vapor and cloud absorption. Numerical simulation using a range of real atmospheres defined by radiosonde observations were used to validate the frequency selection procedure. Analyses are presented of alternative system configurations that define the balance between accuracy and achievable resolution.

Flower, D. A.↗

The Aeolus Mission Concept, an Innovative Mission to Study the Winds and Climate of Mars

Aeolus is a mission to provide the first set of global, seasonal, and diurnal data to characterize winds and study the climate of Mars. Aeolus measures surface and atmospheric temperatures, aerosol abundances, and Doppler shifts in atmospheric spectral lines. The payload includes a system of four of a new type of miniaturized Spatial Heterodyne Spectrometer (SHS) paired to two orthogonal viewing telescopes that can measure CO2 (daytime absorption) and O2 (day and night emission) lines in the Martian atmosphere. The Thermal Limb Sounder (TLS) instrument measures atmospheric temperature profiles and aerosol (H2O ice clouds, dust) profiles, and the Surface Radiometric Sensor Package (SuRSeP) measures the total reflected solar radiance, and surface temperatures down to 140K. These combined spectral and thermal measurements will provide a new understanding of the global energy balance, dust transport processes, and climate cycles in the Martian atmosphere. The mission concept for Aeolus consists of a single sub-100 kg secondary spacecraft in a highly inclined orbit, allowing it to pass over all local times. Aeolus attains global coverage of the surface for a mission duration of one Martian year, to capture climate patterns during each Martian season. This paper gives an overview of the Aeolus payload, spacecraft, and the methodology used to mature the Aeolus mission concept.

Mauro, David↗

Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) Observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on Aura

Backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) instruments designed for measuring stratospheric ozone profiles have proven to be robust tools for observing polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). These measurements are available for more than 30 years, and have been used to demonstrate the existence of long-term variations in PMC occurrence frequency and brightness. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the EOS Aura satellite provides new and improved capabilities for PMC characterization. OMI uses smaller pixels than previous BUV instruments, which increases its ability to identify PMCs and discern more spatial structure, and its wide cross-track viewing swath provides full polar coverage up to 90 latitude every day in both hemispheres. This cross-track coverage allows the evolution of PMC regions to be followed over several consecutive orbits. Localized PMC variations determined from OMI measurements are consistent with coincident SBUV/2 measurements. Nine seasons of PMC observations from OMI are now available, and clearly demonstrate the advantages of these measurements for PMC analysis.

DeLand, Matthew T.↗

Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Release 2.5 Longwave Monthly Data in Native Format (SRB_REL2.5_LW_MONTHLY)

The Surface Radiation Budget Data include upward and downward fluxes averaged at monthly intervals for the entire globe between 07/01/1983 and 06/30/2005. These parameters were derived using the Longwave algorithm of the NASA World Climate Research Programme/Global Energy and Water-Cycle Experiment (WCRP/GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=Ranges from 1 degree (tropics and subtropics) to 120 degrees (the poles).; Temporal_Resolution=3 hourly; Temporal_Resolution_Range=3 hourly].

SURFACE UPWARD LONGWAVE FLUX↗

Observed perturbations of the Earth's Radiation Budget - A response to the El Chichon stratospheric aerosol layer?

The Earth Radiation Budget experiment, launched aboard the Nimbus-7 polar-orbiting spacecraft in late 1978, has now taken over seven years of measurements. The dataset, which is global in coverage, consists of the individual components of the earth's radiation budget, including longwave emission, net radiation, and both total and near-infrared albedos. Starting some six months after the 1982 eruption of the El Chichon volcano, substantial long-lived positive shortwave irradiance anomalies were observed by the experiment in both the northern and southern polar regions. Analysis of the morphology of this phenomena indicates that the cause is the global stratospheric aerosol layer which formed from the cloud of volcanic effluents. There was little change in the emitted longwave in the polar regions. At the north pole the largest anomaly was in the near-infrared, but at the south pole the near UV-visible anomaly was larger. Assuming an exponential decay, the time constant for the north polar, near-infrared anomaly was 1.2 years. At mid- and low latitudes the effect of the El Chichon aerosol layer could not be separated from the strong reflected-shortwave and emitted-longwave perturbations issuing from the El Nino/Southern Oscillation event of 1982-83.

Ardanuy, P. E.↗

Detailed Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes with Modern/High-Quality Satellite Observations

We examine, in detail, Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall processes using modernhigh quality satellite precipitation measurements. The focus here is on measurements derived from three NASA cloud and precipitation satellite missionslinstruments (TRMM/PR&TMI, AQUNAMSRE, and CLOUDSATICPR), and a fourth TRMM Project-generated multi-satellite precipitation measurement dataset (viz., TRMM standard algorithm 3b42) -- all from a period beginning in 1998 up to the present. It is emphasized that the 3b42 algorithm blends passive microwave (PMW) radiometer-based precipitation estimates from LEO satellites with infi-ared (IR) precipitation estimates from a world network of CEO satellites (representing -15% of the complete space-time coverage) All of these observations are first cross-calibrated to precipitation estimates taken from standard TRMM combined PR-TMI algorithm 2b31, and second adjusted at the large scale based on monthly-averaged rain-gage measurements. The blended approach takes advantage of direct estimates of precipitation from the PMW radiometerequipped LEO satellites -- but which suffer fi-om sampling limitations -- in combination with less accurate IR estimates from the optical-infrared imaging cameras on GEO satellites -- but which provide continuous diurnal sampling. The advantages of the current technologies are evident in the continuity and coverage properties inherent to the resultant precipitation datasets that have been an outgrowth of these stable measuring and retrieval technologies. There is a wealth of information contained in the current satellite measurements of precipitation regarding the salient precipitation properties of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Using different datasets obtained from the measuring systems noted above, we have analyzed the observations cast in the form of: (1) spatially distributed means and variances over the hierarchy of relevant time scales (hourly I diurnally, daily, monthly, seasonally I intra-seasonally, and inter-annually), (2) time series at these different time scales taken as area-averages over the hierarchy of relevant space scales (Indian sub-Division, Indian sub-continent, and Circumambient Indian Ocean), (3) principal autocorrelation and cross-correlation structures over various monsoon space-time domains, (4) diurnally modulated amplitude-phase properties of rain rates over different monsoon space-time domains, (5) foremost rain rate probability distributions intrinsic to monsoon precipitation, and (6) behavior of extreme events including occurrences of flood and drought episodes throughout the course of inter-annual monsoon processes.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Polar Geophysics Products Derived from AVHRR: The "AVHRR Polar Pathfinder

This NOAA/NASA Pathfinder effort was established to locate, acquire, and process Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery into geo-located and calibrated radiances, cloud masks, surface clear-sky broadband albedo, clear-sky skin temperatures, satellite viewing times, and viewing and solar geometry for the, high-latitude portions of the northern and southern hemispheres (all area north of 48N and south of 53S). AVHRR GAC data for August 1981 - July 1998 were acquired, with some gaps remaining, and processed into twice-daily 5-km grids, with some products also provided at 25-km resolution. AVHRR LAC data for 3.5 years of coverage in the northern hemisphere and 2.75 years of coverage in the southern hemisphere were processed into 1.25-km grids for the same suite of products. The resulting data sets are presently being transferred to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for archiving and distribution. Using these data, researchers now have at their disposal an extensive AVHRR data set for investigations of high-latitude processes. In addition, the data lend themselves to development and testing of algorithms. The products are particularly relevant for climate research and algorithm development as applied to relatively long time periods and large areas.

Maslanik, James↗

Vexcel Spells Excellence for Earth and Space

With assistance from Stennis Space Center, Vexcel was able to strengthen the properties of its Apex Ground Station(TM), an affordable, end-to-end system that comes complete with a tracking antenna that permits coverage within an approximate 2,000-kilometer radius of its location, a high speed direct-to-disk data acquisition system that can download information from virtually any satellite, and data processing software for virtually all synthetic aperture radar and optical satellite sensors. Vexcel is using an Apex system linked to the Terra satellite to help scientists and NASA personnel measure land and ocean surface temperatures, detect fires, monitor ocean color and currents, produce global vegetation maps and data, and assess cloud characteristics and aerosol concentrations. In addition, Vexcel is providing NASA with close-range photogrammetry software for the International Space Station. The technology, commercially available as FotoG(TM), was developed with SBIR funding and support from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Commercially, FotoG is used for demanding projects taken on by engineering firms, nuclear power plants, oil refineries, and process facilities. A version of Vexcel's close-range photo measurement system was also used to create virtual 3-D backdrops for a high-tech science fiction film.

Source record↗

Surface Radiation Budget

The Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) data sets contain global 3-hourly, daily and monthly averages of surface longwave and shortwave radiative properties, cloud amount, and meteorological properties computed using models. The main input data for these models include cloud information, top-of-atmosphere radiances and profiles of atmospheric water vapor and temperature. Some of the input data include Earth Radiation Budget Energy (ERBE) top-of-atmosphere clear-sky albedo and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) radiances and cloud amount. SRB parameters derived for the renewable energy community are also available from the Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set. Other SRB data are available from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). [Mission Objectives] The objective of the SRB Project is to produce and archive a global data set of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) surface and top of the atmosphere parameters. The data generated in the SRB project may be used in conjunction with other data sets to facilitate the development of renewable energy resources and increase understanding of radiative properties within the meteorological community. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=2005-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Stackhouse, Paul W.↗

Aerosol Properties Derived from Airborne Sky Radiance and Direct Beam Measurements in Recent NASA and DoE Field Campaigns

The AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) ground-based suite of sunphotometers provides measurements of spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD), precipitable water and spectral sky radiance, which can be inverted to retrieve aerosol microphysical properties that are critical to assessments of aerosol-climate interactions. Because of data quality criteria and sampling constraints, there are significant limitations to the temporal and spatial coverage of AERONET data and their representativeness for global aerosol conditions.The 4STAR (Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research) instrument, jointly developed by NASA Ames and PNNL (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) with NASA Goddard collaboration, combines airborne sun tracking and AERONET-like sky scanning with spectroscopic detection. Being an airborne instrument, 4STAR has the potential to fill gaps in the AERONET data set. The 4STAR instrument operated successfully in the SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys) experiment in Aug./Sep. 2013 aboard the NASA DC-8 and in the DoE (Department of Energy)-sponsored TCAP (Two Column Aerosol Project, July 2012 & Feb. 2013) experiment aboard the DoE G-1 aircraft. 4STAR provided direct beam measurements of hyperspectral AOD, columnar trace gas retrievals (H2O, O3, NO2), and the first ever airborne hyperspectral sky radiance scans, which can be inverted to yield the same products as AERONET ground-based observations. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the new 4STAR capabilities, with an emphasis on 26 high-quality sky radiance measurements carried out by 4STAR in SEAC4RS. We compare collocated 4STAR and AERONET sky radiances, as well as their retrievals of aerosol microphysical properties for a subset of the available case studies. We summarize the particle property and air-mass characterization studies made possible by the combined 4STAR direct beam and sky radiance observations.

DoE↗

CERES ERBE-like Instantaneous TOA Estimates (ES-8) in HDF (CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1)

The ES-8 archival data product contains a 24-hour, single-satellite, instantaneous view of scanner fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reduced from spacecraft altitude unfiltered radiances using Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner Inversion algorithms and the ERBE shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Angular Distribution Models (ADMs). The ES-8 also includes the total (TOT), SW, LW, and window (WN) channel radiometric data; SW, LW, and WN unfiltered radiance values; and the ERBE scene identification for each measurement. These data are organized according to the CERES 3.3-second scan into 6.6-second records. As long as there is one valid scanner measurement within a record, the ES-8 record will be generated. The following CERES ES8 data sets are currently available: CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Transient-Ops2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2005-11-01] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

TOA FLUX↗

CERES ERBE-like Instantaneous TOA Estimates (ES-8) in HDF (CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition1)

The ES-8 archival data product contains a 24-hour, single-satellite, instantaneous view of scanner fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reduced from spacecraft altitude unfiltered radiances using Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner Inversion algorithms and the ERBE shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Angular Distribution Models (ADMs). The ES-8 also includes the total (TOT), SW, LW, and window (WN) channel radiometric data; SW, LW, and WN unfiltered radiance values; and the ERBE scene identification for each measurement. These data are organized according to the CERES 3.3-second scan into 6.6-second records. As long as there is one valid scanner measurement within a record, the ES-8 record will be generated. The following CERES ES8 data sets are currently available: CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES8_TRMM-PFM_Transient-Ops2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES8_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES8_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES8_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2005-11-01] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

EOSDIS↗

Remote temperature sounding in the presence of cloud by zenith scanning

The principles of remote sounding of vertical temperature profiles in planetary atmospheres containing cloud layers are presented for an approach that uses measurements at different angles to the local vertical to eliminate the unknown cloud effects. A numerical example for a model of the earth's atmosphere shows that soundings separated by 40 deg in zenith angle permit the recovery of the temperature profile with an error that is not significantly greater than that obtained in the clear atmosphere case, and without serious horizontal smear. It is proposed that the method will be valuable for the interpretation of measurements made by instruments on spin-stabilized spacecraft on planetary missions, since in these cases the required angular coverage is obtained automatically for most trajectories.

Taylor, F. W.↗

The 16-45 micron observations of the Galactic Center

Existing observations of the Galactic Center at infrared and radio wavelengths challenge our understanding of the detailed morphology and energy balance of the inner few parsec, including the Galactic Center and the infrared torus. The distribution and nature of the sources heating this region are still not well understood; existing determinations of dust temperature and ionization do not provide us with consistent pictures of the relative important of the central source and the embedded stars in this dusty region. The composite IR emission of the Galactic Center can be crudely divided into three categories: (1) hot dust heated directly by an incident UV field along the inner region of the Galactic Center torus; (2) warm dust heated by te non-ionizing radiation of the embedded stars and re-radiated NIR dust emission; (3) cooler absorbing dust located along the galactic line of sight. The apparent inconsistencies between the observations and theoretical expectations may stem from the interplay of various physical process and source-cloud geometries. Observations with increased spatial and spectral resolution are clearly needed to provide the information necessary to address the various problems. Therefore, we made 15-45 micron spectrophotometric observations of the inner 80 min (3 pc) regions surrounding the Galactic Center with the 20 min aperture of Goddard Cryogenic Grating Spectrometer No. 2 in May 1994 from the KAO. We measured nine points, including the 50 and 90 micron peaks of Davidson et al. and points between them and SgrA,. The wavelength coverage of our instrument ensures sensitivity to the hot dust component, silicate emission and/or absorption features, and cooler dust at longer wavelengths. Our observations will be used to set limits on the luminosity of any central sources, or give an independent estimate of central luminosity, and to set limits on the range of acceptable dust parameters for this region.

Chan, Kin-Wing↗

On the Validation of Satellite-Derived Sea Ice Surface Temperature

The surface temperature of sea ice controls the rate of ice growth and heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. An algorithm for the satellite retrieval of ice surface temperature has recently been published, but due to the lack of validation data has not been extensively tested. In this paper, data from a recent Arctic field experiment is used in an attempt to validate that algorithm. While the procedure is, in principle, straightforward, we demonstrate that validation is complicated by a variety of factors, including incorrectly assumed atmospheric conditions, undetected clouds in the satellite data, spatial and temporal variability in the surface temperature field, and surface and satellite measurement errors. Comparisons between surface temperatures determined from upwelling broadband longwave radiation, spatial measurements of narrow-band radiation, thermocouples buried just below the snow surface, and narrow-band satellite data show differences of 1 to 3 deg. C. The range in these independent measurements indicates the need for specially designed validation experiments utilizing narrow-band radiometers on aircraft to obtain broad spatial coverage.

Key, J.↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗