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At least 649 records · Page 36

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DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Investigation of phase-change coatings for variable thermal control of spacecraft

An investigation was conducted to determine the feasibility of producing a spacecraft coating system that could vary the ratio of its solar absorptance to thermal emittance to adjust automatically for changes in the thermal balance of a spacecraft. This study resulted in a new concept called the phase-change effect which uses the change that occurs in the optical properties of many materials during the phase transition from a crystalline solid to an amorphous material. A series of two-component model coatings was developed which, when placed on a highly reflecting substrate, exhibited a sharp decrease in solar absorptance within a narrow temperature range. A variable thermal control coating can have a significant amount of temperature regulation with the phase-change effect. Data are presented on several crystallite-polymer formulations, their physical and optical properties, and associated phase-change temperatures. Aspects pertaining to their use in a space environment and an example of the degree of thermal regulation attainable with these coatings is also given.

Kelliher, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Disproportional changes in hematocrit, plasma volume, and proteins during exercise and bed rest.

The interrelationships between the changes in plasma volume, hematocrit, and plasma proteins during muscular exercise and bed rest were investigated. Proportionally, the changes in hematocrit are always smaller than the changes in plasma volume. For this reason changes in the concentration of blood constituents can only be quantitated on the basis of plasma volume changes. During short periods of intensive exercise, there was a small loss of plasma proteins. With prolonged submaximal exercise there was a net gain in plasma protein, which contributes to stabilization of the vascular volume. Prolonged bed rest induced hypoproteinemia; this loss of plasma protein probably plays an important role in recumbency hypovolemia.

Van Beaumont, W.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Effects of additives on volume change on melting, surface tension, and viscosity of liquid aluminum oxide

The effects of various oxide additives on the volume change on melting, the surface tension, and the viscosity of liquid Al2O3 were studied. Additives of Sm2O3, MgO, and Y2O3 which form solid solutions, compounds, and multiphase solids with Al2O3 were studied. A review of the property data for Al2O3 and Al2O3 containing oxide additives is presented. Oxide additives to Al2O3 reduce the volume change on melting and with the exception of SiO2 lower the viscosity; surface tensions change with oxide additives, but changes vary with different container material. Viscosity and volume change on melting appeared to be significantly more important for studying the properties of liquid oxides than surface tension. Supercooling of 270 K of yttrium aluminum garnet was observed.

Bates, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Plasma column changes at small solar elongations

The differenced range versus integrated Doppler (DRVID) technique was used to study charged particle changes in the ray path between earth and Mariner 9. For plasma activity near the sun, DRVID data were obtained from August 10 to October 24, 1972, surrounding the Mariner 9 superior conjunction on September 7. If the records are viewed in terms of range change or range change rate, the day-to-day fluctuations in these quantities mask the changes expected due to the varying solar elongation. Thus, while the steady-state total electron content varies by a factor of 4, the columnar content changes show no systematic variations.

Callahan, P. S.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field.

This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).

Martin, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Red cell volume with changes in plasma osmolarity during maximal exercise.

The volume of the red cell in vivo was measured during acute changes in plasma osmolarity evoked through short (6 to 8 min) maximal exercise in six male volunteer subjects. Simultaneous measurements of mean corpuscular red cell volume (MCV), hematocrit, blood hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), and plasma osmolarity showed that there was no change in the MCV or MCHC with a concomitant rise of nearly 6% in plasma osmolarity. Apparently, in vivo, the volume of the red cell in exercising healthy human subjects does not change measurably, in spite of significant changes in osmotic pressure of the surrounding medium. Consequently, it is not justified to correct postexercise hematocrit measurements for changes in plasma osmolarity.

Van Beaumont, W.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Public attitudes toward programs of large-scale technological changes: Some reflections and policy prescriptions, appendix E

The question of how ready the public is for the implementation of large-scale programs of technological change is considered. Four vital aspects of the issue are discussed which include: (1) the ways in which the public mis-perceives the change process, (2) the ways in which recent history impacts on public attitudes, (3) the ways in which the public divides among itself, and (4) the fundamentals of public attitudes towards change. It is concluded that nothing is so critical in the 1970's to securing public approval for large-scale planned change projects as is securing the approval by change-agents of the public.

Shostak, A. B.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Geographic applications of ERTS-1 imagery to landscape change

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 has proven to be an effective earth-orbiting monitor of landscape change. Its regional coverage for large areal monitoring has been effective for the detection and mapping of agricultural plowing regions, for general forest cover mapping, for flood mapping, for strip mine mapping, and for short-lived precipitation mapping patterns. Paramount to the entire study has been the temporal coverage provided by ERTS. Without the cyclic coverage on an 18 day basis, temporal coverage would have been inadequate for the detection and mapping of strip mining landscape change, the analysis of agricultural landscape change based on plowing patterns, the analysis of urban-suburban growth changes, and the mapping of the Mississippi River floods. Cost benefits from ERTS are unquestionably superior to aircraft systems in regard to large regional coverage and cyclic temporal parameters. For the analysis of landscape change in large regions such as statewide areas or even areas of 10,000 square miles, ERTS is of cost benefit consideration. Not only does the cost of imagery favor ERTS but the reduction of man-hours using ERTS has been in the magnitude of 1:10.

Rehder, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Correlation changes in EEG, conditioned and behavioral reactions with various degrees of oxygen insufficiency

The dynamics of change in bioelectric activity of the brain during acute hypoxia are studied for the time that working capacity and active consciousness are preserved, and to establish the correlation between EEG changes and behavioral reactions under oxygen starvation. Changes in body functions and behavioral disturbances are related to the degree of oxygen saturation in the blood, to bioelectric activity of the brain, and to an increase in conditioned reflexes. The capacity for adequate reaction to external signals and for coordinated psychomotor activity after loss of consciousness returns to man after 30 seconds. Repeated effects of hypoxia produce changes in the physiological reactions of the body directed toward better adaptation to changing gaseous environments.

Agadzhanyan, N. A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Long-term changes in ultraviolet P Cygni profiles observed with Copernicus

The incidence and nature of variability occurring on time scales of years in the ultraviolet P Cygni profiles of 15 O and B stars are investigated using spectrophotometric data obtained with the Copernicus satellite. It is found that some change in at least a few details of the P Cygni profiles is evident in almost every case, that the changes in a few stars appear to represent substantial variations in the column densities of the particular ions observed, and that the changes in other stars are minor in nature and do not result from significant alterations in the quantity of material in the stellar winds. Most of the narrow absorption features are shown to be invariant in velocity, although their strengths have apparently changed in certain cases. The nature of the changes observed in each of the program stars is briefly described, the time scale for variability in the stellar winds is considered, and two stars (Zeta Pup and Delta Ori A) are identified for which some alteration in the total amount of material in the stellar wind has taken place. It is suggested that the narrow absorption features probably represent temperature gradients or plateaus in the stellar-wind velocity fields or may be caused by flat regions in the height dependence of the wind velocity.

Snow, T. P., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Change detection in coastal zone environments

A study was conducted with the objective to develop and evaluate various change detection techniques based upon computer-aided analysis of Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to monitor coastal zone environments. The study site selected includes a portion of the Matagorda Bay estuarine system located along the Texas Coast. The principal data sources for the study were MSS data collected on November, 27, 1972 and February 25, 1975. The MSS data were processed and a multidata eight-channel data set at a scale of 1:24,000 was obtained. A description is presented of four change detection techniques which were designed and implented for evaluation, taking into account postclassification comparison change detection, delta data change detection, spectral/temporal change classification, and layered spectral/temporal approach. The results of the investigation are discussed.

Weismiller, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Mansouri-Chang gravitation theory

The gauge theory of gravitation introduced by Mansouri and Chang (1976) is investigated; a symbolic manipulation computer system generates the Mansouri-Chang field equations in various coordinate systems. It is found that all vacuum Einstein spaces are vacuum Mansouri-Chang spaces in four dimensions, though for higher dimensions an Einstein vacuum space is not generally a Mansouri-Chang solution. The possibility that no solutions of the Mansouri-Chang equations are not Einstein vacuum spaces is discussed.

Pavelle, R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The relationship of compliance changes during fatigue loading to the fracture of composite materials

The study outlined here is based on measurements of the change in engineering stiffness values induced by the development of damage in composite laminates during quasi-static or cyclic (fatigue) loading. These changes are found to be related to the individual details of the damage events in the laminates, as well as to the residual strength and life of the laminates. It is believed that the stiffness changes can also be used to relate composite material behavior under cyclic loading to its behavior under quasi-static loading. Results are presented for both notched and unnotched laminates. Compliance changes are found to be caused by damage events that bring about both global and local redistributions of stress. It is also found that the redistributions of stress determine the residual strength of the laminate. The quantitative link between compliance changes and fracture strength is the mechanics of the internal stress redistributions.

Reifsnider, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Hypersonic slender-wedge analysis with gradual change in angle of attack

The behavior of a narrow cross-section wedge wing moving at a high Mach number and subjected to an angle of attack changing exponentially with time is investigated. This type of wedge wing is commonly employed as a lifting surface in hypersonic vehicles. The time history of wall shear, heat transfer, displacement thickness, and viscous induced pressure are determined. Results show that for the same change in angle of attack, the flow attains the final steady state much faster when the change is exponential than when the change is made impulsively. In addition, the unsteady character of the flow is primarily confined to the initial stages of the change in the angle of attack.

Gupta, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Updating Landsat-derived land-cover maps using change detection and masking techniques

The California Integrated Remote Sensing System's San Bernardino County Project was devised to study the utilization of a data base at a number of jurisdictional levels. The present paper discusses the implementation of change-detection and masking techniques in the updating of Landsat-derived land-cover maps. A baseline landcover classification was first created from a 1976 image, then the adjusted 1976 image was compared with a 1979 scene by the techniques of (1) multidate image classification, (2) difference image-distribution tails thresholding, (3) difference image classification, and (4) multi-dimensional chi-square analysis of a difference image. The union of the results of methods 1, 3 and 4 was used to create a mask of possible change areas between 1976 and 1979, which served to limit analysis of the update image and reduce comparison errors in unchanged areas. The techniques of spatial smoothing of change-detection products, and of combining results of difference change-detection algorithms are also shown to improve Landsat change-detection accuracies.

Likens, W.↗