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Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Druyan, L. M.↗

A Nuclear Interaction Model for Understanding Results of Single Event Testing with High Energy Protons

An internuclear cascade and evaporation model has been adapted to estimate the LET spectrum generated during testing with 200 MeV protons. The model-generated heavy ion LET spectrum is compared to the heavy ion LET spectrum seen on orbit. This comparison is the basis for predicting single event failure rates from heavy ions using results from a single proton test. Of equal importance, this spectra comparison also establishes an estimate of the risk of encountering a failure mode on orbit that was not detected during proton testing. Verification of the general results of the model is presented based on experiments, individual part test results, and flight data. Acceptance of this model and its estimate of remaining risk opens the hardware verification philosophy to the consideration of radiation testing with high energy protons at the board and box level instead of the more standard method of individual part testing with low energy heavy ions.

Culpepper, William X.↗

Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact

Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observationminus- background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.

Variational Analysis↗

Jet stream winds - Enhanced aircraft data acquisition and analysis over Southwest Asia

A project is described for providing the accurate initial and verification analyses for the jet stream in regions where general circulation models are known to have large systematic errors, either due to the extreme sparsity of data or to incorrect physical parameterizations. For this purpose, finely spaced aircraft-based meteorological data for the Southwest Asian regions collected for three 10-day periods in the winter of 1988-1989 will be used, together with corresponding data for the North American regions used as a control, to rerun the assimilation cycles and forecast models of the NMC and the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. Data for Southeast Asia will be collected by three carriers with extensive wide-body routes crossing the total region, while data for the North American region will be obtained from the archives of ACARS and GTS.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 5: Interpretation, compilation and field verification procedures in the CARETS project

The production of the CARETS map data base involved the development of a series of procedures for interpreting, compiling, and verifying data obtained from remote sensor sources. Level II land use mapping from high-altitude aircraft photography at a scale of 1:100,000 required production of a photomosaic mapping base for each of the 48, 50 x 50 km sheets, and the interpretation and coding of land use polygons on drafting film overlays. CARETS researchers also produced a series of 1970 to 1972 land use change overlays, using the 1970 land use maps and 1972 high-altitude aircraft photography. To enhance the value of the land use sheets, researchers compiled series of overlays showing i cultural features, county boundaries and census tracts, surface geology, and drainage basins. In producing Level I land use maps from Landsat imagery, at a scale I of 1:250,000, interpreters overlaid drafting film directly on Landsat color composite transparencies and interpreted on the film. They found that such interpretation involves pattern and spectral signature recognition. In studies using Landsat imagery, interpreters identified numerous areas of change but also identified extensive areas of "false change," where Landsat spectral signatures but not land use had changed.

Field verification procedures↗

HLPW-4/GMGW-3: Overview and Workshop Summary

The Fourth AIAA CFD High Lift Prediction Workshop and the Third Geometry and Mesh Generation Workshop were held collaboratively with the common goal of assessing the numerical prediction capability of current-generation computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology for swept, medium/high-aspect-ratio wings in high-lift configurations. A key aspect of this joint endeavor was the use of Technology Focus Groups, an innovative new approach for workshops involving close collaboration between participants. These groups, which included both mesh generation and flow solver experts, worked to accelerate advancements for their particular methodologies by addressing key questions of importance {\em prior} to the workshop. The high-lift version of the NASA Common Research Model (CRM-HL) configuration was the focus of this workshop. Measured experimental wind tunnel data were available for comparison. The workshop also included a two-dimensional turbulence model verification exercise based on the CRM-HL wing shape. Altogether, 44 participants submitted a total of 184 data sets of CFD results. This paper provides a high-level summary of the results and conclusions from the workshop. Like at past workshops, fixed-grid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes continued to be inaccurate and inconsistent for high lift. However, mesh adaptation definitively brought more consistency. Scale-resolving methods appeared most promising for predicting high-lift flow physics.

Christopher L Rumsey↗

Time and Frequency-Domain Cross-Verification of SLS 6DOF Trajectory Simulations

The SLS GNC team and its partners have developed several time- and frequency-based simulations for development and analysis of the proposed SLS launch vehicle. The simulations differ in fidelity and some have unique functionality that allows them to perform specific analyses. Some examples of the purposes of the various models are: trajectory simulation, multi-body separation, Monte Carlo, hardware in the loop, loads, and frequency domain stability analyses. While no two simulations are identical, many of the models are essentially six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) representations of the SLS plant dynamics, hardware implementation, and flight software. Thus at a high level all of those models should be in agreement. Comparison of outputs from several SLS trajectory and stability analysis tools are ongoing as part of the program's current verification effort. The purpose of these comparisons is to highlight modeling and analysis differences, verify simulation data sources, identify inconsistencies and minor errors, and ultimately to verify output data as being a good representation of the vehicle and subsystem dynamics. This paper will show selected verification work in both the time and frequency domain from the current design analysis cycle of the SLS for several of the design and analysis simulations. In the time domain, the tools that will be compared are MAVERIC, CLVTOPS, SAVANT, STARS, ARTEMIS, and POST 2. For the frequency domain analysis, the tools to be compared are FRACTAL, SAVANT, and STARS. The paper will include discussion of these tools including their capabilities, configurations, and the uses to which they are put in the SLS program. Determination of the criteria by which the simulations are compared (matching criteria) requires thoughtful consideration, and there are several pitfalls that may occur that can severely punish a simulation if not considered carefully. The paper will discuss these considerations and will present a framework for responding to these issues when they arise. For example, small event timing differences can lead to large differences in mass properties if the criteria are to measure those properties at the same time, or large differences in altitude if the criteria are to measure those properties when the simulation experiences a staging event. Similarly, a tiny difference in phase can lead to large gain margin differences for frequency-domain comparisons of gain margins.

VanZwieten, Tannen↗

Time and Frequency-Domain Cross-Verification of SLS 6DOF Trajectory Simulations

The Space Launch System (SLS) Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) team and its partners have developed several time- and frequency-based simulations for development and analysis of the proposed SLS launch vehicle. The simulations differ in fidelity and some have unique functionality that allows them to perform specific analyses. Some examples of the purposes of the various models are: trajectory simulation, multi-body separation, Monte Carlo, hardware in the loop, loads, and frequency domain stability analyses. While no two simulations are identical, many of the models are essentially six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) representations of the SLS plant dynamics, hardware implementation, and flight software. Thus at a high level all of those models should be in agreement. Comparison of outputs from several SLS trajectory and stability analysis tools are ongoing as part of the program's current verification effort. The purpose of these comparisons is to highlight modeling and analysis differences, verify simulation data sources, identify inconsistencies and minor errors, and ultimately to verify output data as being a good representation of the vehicle and subsystem dynamics. This paper will show selected verification work in both the time and frequency domain from the current design analysis cycle of the SLS for several of the design and analysis simulations. In the time domain, the tools that will be compared are MAVERIC, CLVTOPS, SAVANT, STARS, ARTEMIS, and POST 2. For the frequency domain analysis, the tools to be compared are FRACTAL, SAVANT, and STARS. The paper will include discussion of these tools including their capabilities, configurations, and the uses to which they are put in the SLS program. Determination of the criteria by which the simulations are compared (matching criteria) requires thoughtful consideration, and there are several pitfalls that may occur that can severely punish a simulation if not considered carefully. The paper will discuss these considerations and will present a framework for responding to these issues when they arise. For example, small event timing differences can lead to large differences in mass properties if the criteria are to measure those properties at the same time, or large differences in altitude if the criteria are to measure those properties when the simulation experiences a staging event. Similarly, a tiny difference in phase can lead to large gain margin differences for frequency-domain comparisons of gain margins.

Johnson, Matthew↗

Use of Semi-Autonomous Tools for ISS Commanding and Monitoring

As the International Space Station (ISS) has moved into a utilization phase, operations have shifted to become more ground-based with fewer mission control personnel monitoring and commanding multiple ISS systems. This shift to fewer people monitoring more systems has prompted use of semi-autonomous console tools in the ISS Mission Control Center (MCC) to help flight controllers command and monitor the ISS. These console tools perform routine operational procedures while keeping the human operator "in the loop" to monitor and intervene when off-nominal events arise. Two such tools, the Pre-positioned Load (PPL) Loader and Automatic Operators Recorder Manager (AutoORM), are used by the ISS Communications RF Onboard Networks Utilization Specialist (CRONUS) flight control position. CRONUS is responsible for simultaneously commanding and monitoring the ISS Command & Data Handling (C&DH) and Communications and Tracking (C&T) systems. PPL Loader is used to uplink small pieces of frequently changed software data tables, called PPLs, to ISS computers to support different ISS operations. In order to uplink a PPL, a data load command must be built that contains multiple user-input fields. Next, a multiple step commanding and verification procedure must be performed to enable an onboard computer for software uplink, uplink the PPL, verify the PPL has incorporated correctly, and disable the computer for software uplink. PPL Loader provides different levels of automation in both building and uplinking these commands. In its manual mode, PPL Loader automatically builds the PPL data load commands but allows the flight controller to verify and save the commands for future uplink. In its auto mode, PPL Loader automatically builds the PPL data load commands for flight controller verification, but automatically performs the PPL uplink procedure by sending commands and performing verification checks while notifying CRONUS of procedure step completion. If an off-nominal condition occurs during procedure execution, PPL Loader notifies CRONUS through popup messages, allowing CRONUS to examine the situation and choose an option of how PPL loader should proceed with the procedure. The use of PPL Loader to perform frequent, routine PPL uplinks offloads CRONUS to better monitor two ISS systems. It also reduces procedure performance time and decreases risk of command errors. AutoORM identifies ISS communication outage periods and builds commands to lock, playback, and unlock ISS Operations Recorder files. Operation Recorder files are circular buffer files of continually recorded ISS telemetry data. Sections of these files can be locked from further writing, be played back to capture telemetry data that occurred during an ISS loss of signal (LOS) period, and then be unlocked for future recording use. Downlinked Operation Recorder files are used by mission support teams for data analysis, especially if failures occur during LOS. The commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files are encompassed in three different operational procedures and contain multiple user-input fields. AutoORM provides different levels of automation for building and uplinking the commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files. In its automatic mode, AutoORM automatically detects ISS LOS periods, then generates and uplinks the commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files when MCC regains signal with ISS. AutoORM also features semi-autonomous and manual modes which integrate CRONUS more into the command verification and uplink process. AutoORMs ability to automatically detect ISS LOS periods and build the necessary commands to preserve, playback, and release recorded telemetry data greatly offloads CRONUS to perform more high-level cognitive tasks, such as mission planning and anomaly troubleshooting. Additionally, since Operations Recorder commands contain numerical time input fields which are tedious for a human to manually build, AutoORM's ability to automatically build commands reduces operational command errors. PPL Loader and AutoORM demonstrate principles of semi-autonomous operational tools that will benefit future space mission operations. Both tools employ different levels of automation to perform simple and routine procedures, thereby offloading human operators to perform higher-level cognitive tasks. Because both tools provide procedure execution status and highlight off-nominal indications, the flight controller is able to intervene during procedure execution if needed. Semi-autonomous tools and systems that can perform routine procedures, yet keep human operators informed of execution, will be essential in future long-duration missions where the onboard crew will be solely responsible for spacecraft monitoring and control.

Brzezinski, Amy S.↗

NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities Using WRF, LIS and GSI

weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2‐km northwestern‐hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra‐tropical cyclones with intense non‐convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified‐WRF (NU‐WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real‐time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU‐WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Formation and Combustion of Unconfined Drop Clusters in Microgravity

Single-drop and droplet array studies have become common methods to isolate and investigate the effects of any of the complexities that enter into the drop combustion process. Microgravity environments are required to allow larger drops to be studied while minimizing or eliminating the confounding effects of buoyancy. Based on the results from current isolated drop, drop array, and spray studies funded through the Microgravity Science and Applications Division, it has become clear that even with the effects of buoyancy removed, the extrapolation of results from droplet array studies to spray flames is difficult. The problem occurs because even the simplest spray systems introduce complexities of multi-disperse drop sizes and drop-drop interactions, coupled with more complicated fluid dynamics. Not only do these features make the interpretation of experimental data difficult, they also make the problem very difficult to analyze computationally. Group combustion models, in which the interaction between droplets is treated on a statistical manner, have become a popular method to investigate the behavior of large numbers of interacting droplets, particularly through the work of Ryan et al. and Bellan and co-workers. While these models idealize the actual spray systems to a point where they can be treated computationally, the experimental analogy to these models is difficult to achieve because it requires the formation and Combustion of drop clusters without the effects of buoyancy. Therefore, even though these models have provided useful and insightful information, the verification of the results by direct comparison with experimental data is still lacking.

Liu, S.↗

Preliminary design of an auxiliary power unit for the space shuttle. Volume 5: Selected system cycle performance data

Detailed cycle steady-state performance data are presented for the final auxiliary power unit (APU) system configuration. The selection configuration is a hydrogen-oxygen APU incorporating a recuperator to utilize the exhaust energy and using the cycle hydrogen flow as a means of cooling the component heat loads. The data are given in the form of computer printouts and provide the following: (1) verification of the adequacy of the design to meet the problem statement for steady-state performance; (2) overall system performance data for the vehicle system analyst to determine propellant consumption and hydraulic fluid temperature as a function for varying mission profiles, propellant inlet conditions, etc.; and (3) detailed component performance and cycle state point data to show what is happening in the cycle as a function of the external forcing functions.

Hamilton, M. L.↗

Viking relativity experiment - Verification of signal retardation by solar gravity

Analysis of 14 months of data obtained from radio ranging to the Viking spacecraft verified, to an estimated accuracy of 0.1%, the prediction of the general theory of relativity that the round-trip times of light signals traveling between the earth and Mars are increased by the direct effect of solar gravity. The corresponding value for the metric parameter gamma is 1.000 plus or minus 0.002, where the quoted uncertainty, twice the formal standard deviation, allows for possible systematic errors.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗

A Survey of Current Rotorcraft Propulsion Health Monitoring Technologies

A brief review is presented on the state-of-the-art in rotorcraft engine health monitoring technologies including summaries on current practices in the area of sensors, data acquisition, monitoring and analysis. Also, presented are guidelines for verification and validation of Health Usage Monitoring System (HUMS) and specifically for maintenance credits to extend part life. Finally, a number of new efforts in HUMS are summarized as well as lessons learned and future challenges. In particular, gaps are identified to supporting maintenance credits to extend rotorcraft engine part life. A number of data sources were consulted and include results from a survey from the HUMS community, Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) documents, American Helicopter Society (AHS) papers, as well as references from Defence Science & Technology Organization (DSTO), Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Delgado, Irebert R.↗

Deep imaging of the field of the z = 4.9 quasar PC 1247+3406, and faint galaxy counts in the K band with the Keck telescope

We present deep images in the K(sub s) band of the field of the quasar PC 1247+3406 at z = 4.897, obtained using the near-infrared camera on the W. M. Keck telescope. A number of faint sources have been detected, some of which appear to be quite red. Their nature and redshifts remain uncertain at this time. These data are combined with deep Keck infrared images of five additional fields and present galaxy counts reaching down to K(sub s) = 22 mag, comparable to the deepest K-band surveys to date. The data presented here are in good agreement with the Hawaii Deep Survey and represent the first independent verification of those results. The slope of the log N-log S relation derived from these data agrees well with the Hawaii Deep Survey, while the counts are slightly higher, especially at the faintest levels probed here. This may be due to a presence of groups or clusters around the target objects at high redshifts.

Soifer, B. T.↗

Materials And Processes Technical Information System (MAPTIS) LDEF materials database

The Materials and Processes Technical Information System (MAPTIS) is a collection of materials data which was computerized and is available to engineers in the aerospace community involved in the design and development of spacecraft and related hardware. Consisting of various database segments, MAPTIS provides the user with information such as material properties, test data derived from tests specifically conducted for qualification of materials for use in space, verification and control, project management, material information, and various administrative requirements. A recent addition to the project management segment consists of materials data derived from the LDEF flight. This tremendous quantity of data consists of both pre-flight and post-flight data in such diverse areas as optical/thermal, mechanical and electrical properties, atomic concentration surface analysis data, as well as general data such as sample placement on the satellite, A-O flux, equivalent sun hours, etc. Each data point is referenced to the primary investigator(s) and the published paper from which the data was taken. The MAPTIS system is envisioned to become the central location for all LDEF materials data. This paper consists of multiple parts, comprising a general overview of the MAPTIS System and the types of data contained within, and the specific LDEF data element and the data contained in that segment.

Davis, John M.↗

A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Brandon L. Hearley↗

Active Mirror Predictive and Requirements Verification Software (AMP-ReVS)

This software is designed to predict large active mirror performance at various stages in the fabrication lifecycle of the mirror. It was developed for 1-meter class powered mirrors for astronomical purposes, but is extensible to other geometries. The package accepts finite element model (FEM) inputs and laboratory measured data for large optical-quality mirrors with active figure control. It computes phenomenological contributions to the surface figure error using several built-in optimization techniques. These phenomena include stresses induced in the mirror by the manufacturing process and the support structure, the test procedure, high spatial frequency errors introduced by the polishing process, and other process-dependent deleterious effects due to light-weighting of the mirror. Then, depending on the maturity of the mirror, it either predicts the best surface figure error that the mirror will attain, or it verifies that the requirements for the error sources have been met once the best surface figure error has been measured. The unique feature of this software is that it ties together physical phenomenology with wavefront sensing and control techniques and various optimization methods including convex optimization, Kalman filtering, and quadratic programming to both generate predictive models and to do requirements verification. This software combines three distinct disciplines: wavefront control, predictive models based on FEM, and requirements verification using measured data in a robust, reusable code that is applicable to any large optics for ground and space telescopes. The software also includes state-of-the-art wavefront control algorithms that allow closed-loop performance to be computed. It allows for quantitative trade studies to be performed for optical systems engineering, including computing the best surface figure error under various testing and operating conditions. After the mirror manufacturing process and testing have been completed, the software package can be used to verify that the underlying requirements have been met.

Basinger, Scott A.↗