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At least 649 records · Page 36

Wind-US Results for the AIAA 2nd Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop

This presentation contains Wind-US results presented at the 2nd Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop. The workshop was organized by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Air Breathing Propulsion Systems Integration Technical Committee with the purpose of assessing the accuracy of computational fluid dynamics for air breathing propulsion applications. Attendees included representatives from government, industry, academia, and commercial software companies. Participants were encouraged to explore and discuss all aspects of the simulation process including the effects of mesh type and refinement, solver numerical schemes, and turbulence modeling. The first set of challenge cases involved computing the thrust and discharge coefficients for a 25deg conical nozzle for a range of nozzle pressure ratios between 1.4 and 7.0. Participants were also asked to simulate two cases in which the 25deg conical nozzle was bifurcated by a solid plate, resulting in vortex shedding (NPR=1.6) and shifted plume shock (NPR=4.0). A second set of nozzle cases involved computing the discharge and thrust coefficients for a convergent dual stream nozzle for a range of subsonic nozzle pressure ratios. The workshop committee also compared the plume mixing of these cases across various codes and models. The final test case was a serpentine inlet diffuser with an outlet to inlet area ratio of 1.52 and an offset of 1.34 times the inlet diameter. Boundary layer profiles, wall static pressure, and total pressure at downstream rake locations were examined.

Wind-US↗

Session 022 - Panel: Doing Business with the US Department of Energy (R1.8)

This panel session provided a fast-paced, high-energy and thought-provoking session on how to do business with the US DOE. Representatives from the Office of EM and the NNSA gave attendees insight on how to market and seek opportunities within their program offices, sites and laboratories, along with suggestions from a successful small business in the DOE market. Panelists with presentations: Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management (EM) (Norbert Doyle); Indian Eyes, LLC - What We Learned (video, Roxie Schescke)

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Panel Session 94: US DOE Procurement Opportunities and End-State Contracting Model Status

This panel focused on DoE's procurement implementation strategy and planned activities for its first-tier contractors (Tier 1 procurements). This panel also focused on the implementation status of DoE's End State Contracting Model, which uses a single-award ID/IQ approach to give DOE flexibility to better define discrete scopes of work for site closure or end states. The panelists provided their prospective on progress toward the implementation of this new approach, lessons learned and the path forward for upcoming opportunities utilizing this contracting model. Panelists with presentations: EFCOG (Billy Morrison); DOE Procurement Opportunities - 4 Ways for Small Business Participation (Anne Marie Bird); US DOE Procurement and Contracting Opportunities (Aaron Deckard)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Panel Session 110B: US DOE High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) Interpretation

This panel focused on the US DOE High-Level radioactive Waste (HLW) definition interpretation. Discussion integrated topics such as the issuance of the HLW interpretation Federal Registration Notice, the status of the draft Environmental Assessment that analyzes the treatment and commercial disposal of up to 10,000-gallons of SRS Defense Waste Processing Facility recycle wastewater in South Carolina, and the path forward. Panelists with presentations: Status on the Environmental Assessment for the Commercial Disposal of Defense Waste Processing Facility Recycle Wastewater from SRS (Theresa Kliczewski); Enhancing Stakeholder Engagement on the HLW interpretation (Kara Colton, Rick McLeod); Technical Aspects of Potential Disposal of SRS DWPF Recycle Wastewater (Kent Rosenberger)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Panel Session 34: US DOE Featured Site: Savannah River Operations Office: 70 Years of Service

The Savannah River Site celebrates its 70. anniversary on November 28, 2020. On this date in 1950, President Harry S. Truman requested the Dupont Company to design, build and operate what was then known as the Savannah River Plant in response to the Soviet Union's detonation of its first atomic weapon, which set the Cold War into motion. During the 1950's, six South Carolina towns were relocated for the construction of SRS and by 1953, the 310 square mile site was complete. Nearly 40,000 workers were employed t build five nuclear reactors and support facilities, two chemical separations plants, heavy water extraction plant, nuclear fuel and target fabrication facility tritium extraction facility and waste management facilities. SRS played a key role in winning the Cold War and for seven decades, SRS has been a leader within the DOE complex. Today, the site supports environmental stewardship and maintains the nation's nuclear deterrent while ensuring the safekeeping and disposal of domestic and international nuclear materials. The site continues to support the nation's nuclear defense as it explores new potential NNSA missions. SRS has a proud 70- year history and looks forward to a future of service as a national asset and strong community partner. The session was kicked off with a video message from Secretary of Energy, Dan Brouillette, who thanked employees past and current for their efforts. The video also provided an overview of the history and future of the Site. This panel provided an overview of the Savannah River Site's 70 years of service (history, challenges, opportunities, and future) presented by the SRS's Senior leadership and the local Aiken, South Carolina Mayor. Panelists with presentations: US DOE Secretary Dan Brouillette's Overview of DOE and SRS - A Legacy of 70 Years of Service (Amy Boyette); 70 Years of Service (Michael Budney); 70 Years of Service (Stuart MacVean); SRS Liquid Waste (Thomas Foster); National Nuclear Security Administration (Nicole Nelson-Jean)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Session 059 - Panel: Small Business Procurement and Contracting Opportunities within the US DOE Complex and USACE FUSRAP Sites (R1.7)

This panel session focused on small business procurement and contracting opportunities within the DOE Complex and USACE FUSRAP Sites. The federal government encourages prime contractors to obtain goods and services from small and disadvantaged businesses (Tier 2) and often tie these goals to contract award fee. Goods and services being considered for these procurements include decontamination and decommissioning, remediation, transportation and disposal of radioactive waste, health physics, emergency response planning and training, lab services, R and D products, waste treatment, maintenance, A/E and professional consulting. Panelists with presentations: Small Business Procurement and Contracting Opportunities within the US DOE Complex and USACE FUSRAP Program (Aaron Deckard; Subcontracting Opportunities with the DOE Primes (William Badger); Bechtel National, Inc. Small Business Opportunities (Lisa Tribuce-Leoung Tat); Small Business Procurement and Contracting Opportunities (Gina Joiner); Small Business Procurement and Contracting Opportunities - Flour (Katy Burnau); Environmental WORK, Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) (John Busse)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Circular Economy Contributions to Decarbonizing the US Steel Sector

The potential benefits of the circular economy (CE) for decarbonization have recently attracted much attention in the academic and grey literature. The department of energy (DOE) industrial decarbonization roadmap highlight that in addition to the four pillars (energy efficiency, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)) identified in the roadmap, "scenarios [...] will need to be developed that incorporate materials efficiency and circular economy strategies". Moreover, the roadmap identifies hard-to-abate CO2 emissions across the five industrial subsectors included in the analysis (iron & steel, chemical, food & beverage, refining, and cement manufacturing). Thus, additional options to decarbonize the industrial sector, like the CE, could prove beneficial to address those hard-to-abate emissions. Moreover, they may be less costly, require less R&D or incentives, and be more readily adopted than other strategies such as energy efficiency and CCUS. While the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap includes some CE strategies (e.g., the increasing market share of steel from electric arc furnaces - which incorporate steel scrap), a deeper dive into what role the CE could play in the United States (US) industrial decarbonization is needed. In this work, we present several industrial decarbonization scenarios that incorporate materials efficiency and circular economy strategies for the iron & steel subsector. The scenarios identify barriers (including technical limits and constraints), opportunities, and R&D needs.Moreover, we estimate the contribution of those scenarios to reducing the industrial sector's CO2 emissions and their potential synergies with the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap's four pillars. Iron & steel manufacturing was responsible for 90 million tons of industrial CO2 emissions in 2020 - 7% of the industrial sector's total process- related emissions. Besides recycling - which presents technical limitations due to trace contaminants - CE strategies on the demand side could lower iron & steel manufacturing emissions (e.g., the development of lighter products or business models that encourage a more intensive use). This study reviews barriers, opportunities, and trade-offs for 5 material efficiency strategies. Many topics explored in the review call for further research.

barriers↗

Simulating competition in the US bioeconomy to produce hard‐to‐electrify transportation fuels using limited biomass resources

This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno-economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost-optimized scenarios, while low-carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas-minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Systematic Assessment of US Food and Drug Administration Dosing Recommendations For Drug Development Programs Amenable to Response‐Guided Titration

A key goal in drug development is optimized dosing for patients. Interactions between drug developers and regulatory scientists throughout development are important for the optimization of dosing and serve as a forum to discuss approaches for optimal dosing, such as precision or individualized dosing. To date, there has not been a systematic assessment of the advice provided by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to drug developers from an individualized dosing perspective. Here, we reviewed FDA recommendations on dose selection for efficacy trials at end‐of‐phase meetings between the FDA and drug developers for 76 new molecular entities approved between 2013 and 2017 that are considered amenable for an individualized dosing method, response‐guided titration. Forty FDA dosing recommendations were identified as specific to dose selection and design of the respective efficacy trials and subsequently: (i) characterized based on if they were supportive of individualized dosing and (ii) compared with dosing regimens used in efficacy trials and labeling at approval to evaluate if FDA recommendations were implemented. Of these 40 recommendations for efficacy trials, 35 (88%) were considered supportive of individualized dosing. Eighteen of these 40 recommendations (45%) were incorporated into efficacy trials and 11 (28%) were incorporated into labeling. This research suggests that early FDA‐sponsor interactions can support the study of doses in efficacy trials that may lead to individualized dosing strategies in labeling.

Wang, Lingshan↗

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Relative Abundance of Soil Nutrient‐Degrading Enzyme‐Encoding Genes Across Continental US Ecoregions

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns in the relative abundance of soil extracellular enzyme‐encoding genes is critical for predicting microbial responses to environmental change and their potential role in nutrient cycling. Yet, integrating novel metagenomic observations with spatiotemporal environmental gradients to infer regional patterns and future trajectories has remained unclear. To address this gap, we applied a machine learning (ML) approach, integrating soil metagenomic data with environmental variables—soil properties, topography, vegetation, and climate—to predict the relative abundance of enzyme‐encoding genes for soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) across surface soils of the continental United States. We assessed potential responses under future emission scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) by comparing a baseline (1985–2014) to a future period (2071–2100). The ML model explained 57%–63% of baseline variation. Precipitation was identified as the most influential factor for the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes, while slope length, representing horizontal distance that water can travel downslope, was the primary driver for P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance. Projections revealed spatially heterogeneous shifts across continental US ecoregions: the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes decreased in wetter ecoregions and increased in drier ecoregions under future climate, while P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance decreased significantly in semiarid and Mediterranean ecoregions. This study demonstrates the utility of metagenomic data for mapping soil genetic potential and predicting its regional response to environmental change, to inform ecosystem management strategies.

extracellular enzyme-encoding genes↗

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100

We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward indicators of the performance of US infrastructures under climate change risks

Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, however, is severely limited at present. The development of such indicators must be considered an ongoing activity that will require expansion and refinement. A number of recent consensus reports suggest four priorities for indicators that portray the impacts of climate change, climate-related extreme events, and other driving forces on infrastructure. These are changes in the reliability of infrastructure services and the implications for costs; changes in the resilience of infrastructures to climate and other stresses; impacts due to the interdependencies of infrastructures; and ongoing adaptation in infrastructures.

adaptation, indicators, infrastructure↗

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overcoming challenges to support US resumption of high specific activity cobalt-60

Domestic production of high specific activity 60 Co was halted after a target rupture in 2012 at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). The Isotope Program (IP) within the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science tasked a multilaboratory team of researchers and managers from Oak Ridge and Idaho National Laboratories with the redesign the radioisotope capsule. The objective of this effort was to create a more robust and reliable design, compared to the pre-2012 target. The team successfully completed this task to produce the DOE-IP cobalt (Co) production capsule design. Furthermore, 66 capsules were successfully fabricated by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and delivered to Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for irradiation in the ATR between January 2014 and October 2016. This paper describes the efforts of the team to prepare and disposition the two initial DOE-IP Co production capsules that were processed in March 2020. These efforts include performing accurate production predictions, experimentally validating predictions with assay measurements, shipping with the Orano-furnished Battelle Energy Alliance Research Reactor shipping package, and disassembling capsules at the isotope vendor site.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Growing grasses in unprofitable areas of US Midwest croplands could increase species richness

The US has large potential to grow perennial energy crops, but because these crops are rarely grown in current agricultural landscapes, it is unclear how biodiversity may be affected. Over time, as agriculture has increased, many grassland species have declined. In addition, not all agricultural land is profitable for growing annual crops. Unprofitable areas were responsible for a loss of approximately $110 million USD per year from 2013 to 2016. Based on this, we want to know how converting less-profitable portions of agricultural fields to switchgrass, a native prairie grass, would influence species occurrence. To address this question, we developed an alternative landscape in which clustered corn/soy acres with a low return on investment (ROI) were replaced with grassland. We also developed and validated species distribution models to predict changes in species occurrence for 28 avian species in Iowa in response to landscape management. Furthermore, we compared results for three different models: Random forest (RF), Stochastic gradient boosting (GBM), and Neural network (Nnet) and found that all models performed well and predicted similar species distribution. Predicted species richness increased by 3.66% (RF), 2.79% (GBM), and 7.51% (Nnet) when we simulated a change in management for ~3% of Iowa's low ROI corn/soybean areas to grassland. If harvested, these areas could generate approximately 7.6 million dry tons/year of switchgrass for bioenergy, thereby increasing farmers earnings. Unprofitable areas tended to occur along streams, which suggest that incorporating partially harvested riparian buffers can benefit avian biodiversity, while improving water quality and reducing unnecessary costs for farmers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗