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At least 649 records · Page 36

Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment

Abstract. The timing of sea ice retreat and advance in Arctic coastal waters varies substantially from year to year. Various activities, ranging from marine transport to the use of sea ice as a platform for industrial activity or winter travel, are affected by variations in the timing of breakup and freeze-up, resulting in a need for indicators to document the regional and temporal variations in coastal areas. The primary objective of this study is to use locally based metrics to construct indicators of breakup and freeze-up in the Arctic and subarctic coastal environment. The indicators developed here are based on daily sea ice concentrations derived from satellite passive-microwave measurements. The “day of year” indicators are designed to optimize value for users while building on past studies characterizing breakup and freeze-up dates in the open pack ice. Relative to indicators for broader adjacent seas, the coastal indicators generally show later breakup at sites known to have landfast ice. The coastal indicators also show earlier freeze-up at some sites in comparison with freeze-up for broader offshore regions, likely tied to earlier freezing of shallow-water regions and areas affected by freshwater input from nearby streams and rivers. A factor analysis performed to synthesize the local indicator variations shows that the local breakup and freeze-up indicators have greater spatial variability than corresponding metrics based on regional ice coverage. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in the synthesized metrics of coastal breakup and freeze-up and the corresponding regional ice coverage. The findings imply that locally defined indicators can serve as key links between pan-Arctic or global indicators such as sea ice extent or volume and local uses of sea ice, with the potential to inform community-scale adaptation and response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overcoming persistent challenges in putting environmental flow policy into practice: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis

The implementation of environmental flows (e-flows) aims to reduce the negative impacts of hydrological alteration on freshwater ecosystems. Despite the growing attention to the importance of e-flows since the 1970s, actual implementation has lagged. Therefore, we explore the limitations in e-flows implementation, their systemic reasons, and solutions. We conducted a systematic review and a bibliometric analysis to identify peer-reviewed articles published on the topic of e-flows implementation research in the last two decades, resulting in 68 research and review papers. Co-occurrence of terms, and geographic and temporal trends were analyzed to identify the gaps in environmental water management and propose recommendations to address limitations on e-flows implementation. We identify the underlying causes and potential solutions to such challenges in environmental water management. The limitations to e-flow implementation identified were categorized into 21 classes. The most recognized limitation was the competing priorities of human uses of water (n = 29). Many secondary limitations, generally co-occurring in co-causation, were identified as limiting factors, especially for implementing more nuanced and sophisticated e-flows. The lack of adequate hydrological data (n = 24) and ecological data (n = 28) were among the most mentioned, and ultimately lead to difficulties in starting or continuing monitoring/adaptive management (n = 28) efforts. The lack of resource/capacity (n = 21), experimentation (n = 19), regulatory enforcement (n = 17), and differing authorities involved (n = 18) were also recurrent problems, driven by the deficiencies in the relative importance given to e-flows when facing other human priorities. In order to provide a clearer path for successful e-flow implementation, system mapping can be used as a starting point and general-purpose resource for understanding the sociohydrological problems, interactions, and inherited complexity of river systems. Secondly, we recommend a system analysis approach to address competing demands, especially with the use of coupled water-energy modeling tools to support decision-making when hydropower generation is involved. Such approaches can better assess the complex interactions among the hydrologic, ecological, socioeconomic, and engineering dimensions of water resource systems and their effective management. Lastly, given the complexities in environmental water allocation, implementation requires both scientific rigor and proven utility. Consequently, and where possible, we recommend a move from simplistic flow allocations to a more holistic approach informed by hydroecological principles. To ease conflicts between competing water demands, water managers can realize more 'pop per drop' by supporting key components of a flow regime that include functional attributes and processes that enhance biogeochemical cycling, structural habitat formation, and ecosystem maintenance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MSU Disentanglement Analysis Software

This software is used to disentangle the forced-versus-unforced components of tropospheric temperature change over the satellite era (after 1979) using maps of surface temperature change as a predictor. In general, the software assembles training datasets (from pre-computed surface temperature trend maps and domain averaged tropospheric warming rates), trains statistical/machine learning (ML) algorithms, applies the trained statistical/ML model to climate model data and observations, and then saves the results. A leave-one-out approach is used in which the statistical/ML models are iteratively trained on (N- 1) climate model and then applied to the remaining climate model (and observations). Each model includes a large ensemble (i.e., >10) of model simulations. The software relies on scikit-learn ridge regression, PLS regression, and neural network algorithms.

Po-Chedley, StephenD↗

Cosolvent-tuned interactions in ionic liquids: A vibrational and quantum-chemical study of ethylene glycol ratio effects

Ionic liquids (ILs) are attractive media for CO 2 capture but remain limited by viscosity and cost. Blending ILs with ethylene glycol (EG) is a practical route to mitigate these constraints, yet the molecular origins of cosolvent effects and their dependence on composition are not well resolved. We combine Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy with quantum-chemical (DFT) analysis to elucidate how the IL:EG molar ratio modulates intermolecular interactions and electronic structure. Computed vibrational frequencies enable mode assignment and deconvolution of overlapping bands, revealing systematic, ratio-dependent shifts and broadenings in (i) EG O–H stretching, (ii) cation and EG C–H stretchings (imidazolium C2–H, C4–H, C5–H, methyl and ethyl groups, -CH2 of EG), (iii) anion signature modes (e.g., CN motifs), and (iv) EG C–O and C–C stretchings, consistent with the redistribution of hydrogen-bonding networks. Molecular electrostatic potential (MESP) maps quantify attenuation of extreme potential regions with increasing EG, indicating progressive screening of cation–anion electrostatic interactions. Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM) identifies emergent bond critical points between EG and the IL ions, while Reduced Density Gradient–Noncovalent Interaction (RDG–NCI) analysis differentiates strong directional hydrogen bonds from dispersive contacts across compositions. Together, these results show that EG fraction controls a switch from predominantly ion–ion to mixed ion–EG coordination, altering local polarity and polarizability that underlie the observed FT-IR trends. The framework provides composition–structure–spectrum relationships that can guide rational selection of IL:EG ratios to balance favorable molecular interactions with practical performance targets in scalable CO 2 capture systems.

DAC↗

Microstructure of irradiated AGR TRISO particle buffer layers as measured by X-ray computed tomography

Shrinkage of the initially low-density buffer layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles during irradiation is a well-known phenomenon with potential implications for fission product and actinide transport, as well as potential pyrocarbon fracture that in some cases has been observed to impact particle performance. During post-irradiation examination, the buffer layer's structure is commonly determined using 2D microscopy of a particle cross section or a series of particle cross sections at staggered depths. Although these methods provide a general idea of the irradiated buffer microstructure, they do not provide a full picture of the TRISO coating microstructure. By contrast, x-ray computed tomography (XCT) provides full 3D imaging of the TRISO particle. Particles from various compacts irradiated for the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program were imaged using XCT. Some of these particles were selected because of abnormal fission product inventories (e.g., low 137 Cs), whereas others were randomly selected from the center of the fission product inventory distribution. Qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques were applied to the randomly selected particles as representatives of typical TRISO behavior to study the post-irradiation structure of the buffer layer. These results showed that, while separation of the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon layers was a common behavior during the radiation-induced shrinkage of the buffer, a portion of the original buffer/inner pyrolytic carbon interface remained intact throughout irradiation in nearly all cases. Furthermore, these results also indicated clear trends in the degree of buffer densification with irradiation temperature and fluence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automatic Fault Detection & Diagnostics: Residential Market Analysis

This report provides an overview of the market potential for automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) in the residential sector, focusing on embedded AFDD in central air conditioners (CAC) and air-source heat pumps (ASHP) as well as the use of smart diagnostic tools to ensure quality installation of CAC/ASHP equipment. The contents include background on AFDD, stakeholder engagement efforts, a technology assessment of AFDD and smart diagnostic tools, residential CAC and ASHP market trends, a characterization of the CAC and ASHP installed base, a synopsis of utility provider programs, and market barriers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Investigating Carboxysome Morphology Dynamics with a Rotationally Invariant Variational Autoencoder

Carboxysomes are a class of bacterial microcompartments that form proteinaceous organelles within the cytoplasm of cyanobacteria and play a central role in photosynthetic metabolism by defining a cellular microenvironment permissive to CO2 fixation. Critical aspects of the assembly of the carboxysomes remain relatively unknown, especially with regard to the dynamics of this microcompartment. Progress in understanding carboxysome dynamics is impeded in part because analysis of the subtle changes in carboxysome morphology with microscopy remains a low-throughput and subjective process. Here we use deep learning techniques, specifically a Rotationally Invariant Variational Autoencoder (rVAE), to analyze fluorescence microscopy images of cyanobacteria bearing a carboxysome reporter and quantitatively evaluate how carboxysome shell remodelling impacts subtle trends in the morphology of the microcompartment over time. Toward this goal, we use a recently developed tool to control endogenous protein levels, including carboxysomal components, in the model cyanobacterium Synechococcous elongatus PCC 7942. By utilization of this system, proteins that compose the carboxysome can be tuned in real time as a method to examine carboxysome dynamics. We find that rVAEs are able to assist in the quantitative evaluation of changes in carboxysome numbers, shape, and size over time. Further, we propose that rVAEs may be a useful tool to accelerate the analysis of carboxysome assembly and dynamics in response to genetic or environmental perturbation and may be more generally useful to probe regulatory processes involving a broader array of bacterial microcompartments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Corrosion Response of Ni-19Cr-5Fe in Molten NaCl-MgCl 2 Salt

Ni-based alloys are strong candidates for use in high-temperature molten salt reactors due to their superior corrosion resistance and mechanical stability compared to stainless steels. In this study, the static corrosion behavior of a Ni-19Cr-5Fe model alloy was systematically evaluated in a purified molten NaCl-MgCl 2 salt at 700°C for 30, 240, and 500 h. Post-exposure analyses were conducted to assess microstructural evolution, corrosion depth, and elemental depletion profiles. Corrosion rates, quantified by chromium depletion depth, followed an inverse power-law trend with increasing exposure time, indicating diffusion-limited kinetics. This trend is attributed to limitations in mass transport in the static salt and to the progressive local depletion of reactive chromium species. Coupled electron backscatter diffraction and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy analysis further revealed that the grain boundary character significantly influences corrosion susceptibility: high-angle grain boundaries exhibited pronounced Cr depletion and pitting, while low-angle and Σ3 boundaries remained comparatively resistant. These results offer valuable insight into the role of microstructure in corrosion processes and reinforce the importance of time-dependent material evaluation in molten salt environments relevant to advanced reactor designs.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Disaggregating growth in future retail electricity rates

The retail rate impacts of a number of emerging trends (e.g., rapid deployment of electric vehicles and storage, transmission build-out for large-scale renewables deployment, and grid modernization) are unknown. Importantly, decision-makers are concerned about the potential future rate impacts on energy affordability and equity. We disaggregate the key drivers of retail electricity rates and assess their impacts on future rate growth considering their interactions and uncertainty. Specifically, we develop ranges of future cost growth for a generic investor-owned and vertically-integrated electric utility representing typical cost and operating characteristics. The rate driver growth rate ranges are applied in isolation and jointly to quantify the uncertainty and variability in future retail electricity rates. The results identify what rate drivers and factors may minimize and/or decrease uncertainty in retail rate growth and their linkages to industry trends.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer

Abstract Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic strength of iron under pressure-temperature conditions of Earth’s inner core

Iron (Fe) is a primary constituent of terrestrial planetary cores, yet its rheological properties under extreme conditions remain uncertain. Here we present direct measurements of Fe strength at 310-430 GPa pressures and 3700-5800 K temperatures, obtained using Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability experiments at the National Ignition Facility. Single-crystal α-Fe samples with [001] and [111] orientations are shock-ramp compressed past the α-ε transition along paths approaching Earth’s inner core conditions. We find that ε-Fe derived from [001] α-Fe is consistently stronger (11-20 GPa) than that from [111] α-Fe (8-18 GPa), contrary to the trend at ambient conditions. Large-scale molecular dynamics simulations reproduce this atypical strength anisotropy and attribute it to microstructural evolution during the phase transition and subsequent ε-phase plasticity. Ripple growth analysis further constrains viscosities of 100-170 Pa·s under the driven conditions. Our results provide experimental benchmarks for Fe rheology at inner-core conditions, with implications for seismic anisotropy and the geodynamo.

Condensed-matter physics↗

A robust statistical analysis of the role of hydropower on the system electricity price and price volatility

Abstract Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage and large reservoir storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid (S. Rehman, L M Al-Hadhrami, and M M Alam), (2015 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 44 , 586–98). This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014-2020 (ISONE, ISO New England Web Services API v1.1 .” https://webservices.iso-ne.com/docs/v1.1/ , 2021. Accessed: 2021-01-10). We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (>70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Comment on “Nonlocal nucleon matrix elements in the rest frame”

In a recent paper, “Nonlocal nucleon matrix elements in the rest frame” [1], it was observed that the next-to-leading order calculations of the renormalization factor can describe, to a few percent accuracy, the logarithm of the lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) rest frame matrix elements with separations up to distances of 0.6 fm on multiple lattice spacings. We argue that perturbative QCD breaks down at such a distance scale after resumming the associated large logarithms, while the Ansatz used in the analysis there is not justified in perturbation theory. Besides, we explain the observation in Ref. [1] and demonstrate that the Ansatz fails to describe the data for 𝑧 > 0.3 fm, showing an opposite trend. Finally, although Ref. [1] proposes multiplying the Ansatz by a Gaussian correction model, which is shown to reduce the discrepancy with the data, this does not legitimize the use of perturbative QCD at such distance scales.

Lattice QCD↗

Eastern Interconnection Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Study Report

To meet the government mandates such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), conventional synchronous generators with rotating mass are being displaced by inverter-based resources (IBRs), leading to high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). As a result, the inherent properties and characteristics of the transformed generation mix may significantly impact the grid behaviour, and it is of paramount significance that the impact and the consequences of the resource mix change is thoroughly understood to adopt measures to maintain reliable grid operations. Of great concern is the inter-area low-frequency oscillation, which usually propagates through a large region and has a system-wide impact. Such oscillations may lead to unnecessary or inadvertent tripping of generators, that may be simply reacting to the oscillation originating from geographically remote sites. Such tripping of generators can lead to cascading outages, system split and load loss events. Over the years, several system-wide oscillation events have been observed across all three North American interconnections. This project titled Wide-area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study, sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE), aims to conduct the required research to capture and investigate the potential changes in wide-area oscillatory performance of the system as a result of resource mix transition. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted this research and technical staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as advisors to the project. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the power system wide-area oscillatory behaviours, as a result of the generation-mix changes due to the increased penetration of RES in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). The analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the EI system. This research conducted in this project evaluates the wide-area oscillatory behaviour of the EI, using a model-based approach for potential future resource mixes, and the measurement-based analysis with 21-month phasor measurement unit (PMU) time series. The oscillation modes in EI system along with the impact of the changes of the generation mix on the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of the oscillations have been studied.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Covers J and K

Drainage structures are used in urban street and highway systems to capture stormwater runoff. These structures typically consist of catch basins fitted with grates, inlets, or combination grate/inlet configurations that collect runoff and convey it through buried drainage systems. They are strategically placed within curb-and-gutter systems to enhance public safety by efficiently removing water from roadways and thereby reducing the risk of hydroplaning. The performance of drainage structures is commonly evaluated in terms of hydraulic efficiency, defined as the percentage of flow captured by the basin relative to the total flow reaching the structure. Understanding the hydraulic performance of these structures allows designers to properly space inlets, resulting in cost-effective designs that also help ensure the safety of the traveling public. MDOT uses a variety of drainage structures for runoff capture, as documented in Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) Drainage Manual. Many of these structures incorporate sinusoidal-type grates that are not addressed in HEC-22. Because physical modeling of these structures has been limited, further analysis is needed to verify their capture efficiency. Under current MDOT practice, the capture efficiency of these grates is estimated by assuming performance similar to that of a comparably sized reticuline grate described in HEC22. The first phase of this effort, titled Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C, focused on evaluating the hydraulic performance of MDOT’s Cover C grate. Cover C was selected as the initial test candidate because its sinusoidal pattern is representative of other MDOT grates, while it is typically used in high-volume, higher-speed applications. A similar version, Cover CX, is used on interstate highways but does not include transverse bars for bicycle safety. The current second phase of the study expands this work to evaluate MDOT’s Covers J and K. These grates were selected for additional analysis to further assess the hydraulic performance of MDOT drainage structures that are not directly represented by grate configurations in HEC-22. The results of this phase will build on the findings from the Cover C analysis and support improved understanding of the capture efficiency of MDOT’s standard drainage grates. This report is intended to serve as a companion document to the earlier study, Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C [3]. The present work applies the same overall CFD-based evaluation approach to MDOT Covers J and K and compares the resulting performance trends with those previously identified for Cover C. In particular, both studies assess on-grade interception efficiency, sag-location hydraulic capacity, and the effects of partial obstruction relative to HEC-22-based design estimates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Renewable Energy Technology and Systems Integration for the Oil and Gas Industry

Introduction to the mission and research of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA). JISEA is co-sponsored by industries, governments, and partnered with several academic institutions (see https://www.jisea.org). Presentation will review statistics about the growth of renewable energy and also discuss potential future trends. It will review several specific case studies relevant to the oil and gas industry, including renewable energy for industrial operations and clean technologies and fuels that would be most relevant to oil and gas technologies and capabilities.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Paleo-Megadroughts and Abrupt Climate Changes in the Speleothem Records. Final report

This project is motivated by the speleothem isotope records in Asia, which show regional responses in the hydrologic cycle to different climate forcings. Speleothem isotopic records are typically interpreted in terms of local precipitation variations or monsoon intensity. Our study demonstrates that non-local processes also play an important role. We started this project to understand the regional difference in speleothem isotopic composition between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day. The record in Southwest China showed greater depletion during the LGM compared to those in East China. Our modeling and analysis showed that speleothems record, in addition, large scale changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture transport and their subsequent impact on precipitation. We developed an algorithm to partition total precipitation according to their formation dynamics, namely into frontal and non-frontal precipitation, and showed that the two have different trends and hence different causal mechanism. We then focused our subsequent attention on circulation impacts on precipitation changes. We applied a machine learning algorithm to detect rainbands in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product, and showed that the seasonal migrations of the rainbands are tied to the seasonal migrations of the jet stream, in particular the northerlies of the jet meanders. These northerlies, in turn, are partly topographic Rossby waves excited as the upstream westerlies impinge on the Tibetan Plateau. The seasonal variations of these upstream westerlies thus contribute to the seasonal movements of the rainbands and regional precipitation changes. Our analysis of the modern precipitation isotope record further confirms the importance of jet stream changes in the isotopic variations and shows that isotope-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality, with less pronounced northward migration of the jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of beam ion driven Alfvén eigenmode stability induced by Tungsten contamination in EAST

Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) activity is observed in the EAST high β N and low B T discharge 93910, operation scenario dedicated to explore the ITER baseline scenario. AEs are triggered after the plasma is contaminated by Tungsten that causes an abrupt variation of the thermal plasma and energetic particles (EPs) profiles. The aim of the present study is to analyze the AE stability in the 93910 discharge using the gyro-fluid code FAR3d, identifying the AE stability trends by comparing the plasma before and after the Tungsten contamination. Tungsten contamination causes the destabilization of Toroidal AEs (TAE) and Energetic particle modes (EPMs) in the same frequency range and radial location with respect to the experimental observation and M3D-K/GTAW code results. Next, a set of parametric studies are performed to analyze the effect of the thermal plasma and EP parameters on the AE stability. The analysis indicates a lower EP β threshold for the AEs destabilization if the EP energy increases, an improved AE stability of on-axis NBI configurations due to the stronger continuum damping in the inner plasma region as well as a large enhancement of the EP drive as the thermal ion density increases due to a higher ratio of the EP and Alfven velocities. Consequently, the simulations indicate the increment of the thermal ion density after the Tungsten contamination could be the main cause of the AE/EPM destabilization.

AE↗