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At least 649 records · Page 36

Termination shock response to large-scale solar wind fluctuations

The analysis of data recorded by the Voyager 2 spacecraft indicates the presence of large-scale fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure on the time scale of tens of days. The amplitude of the fluctuations is highly variable but often lies within a factor of 5 to 10 change from an average or mean value of the ram pressure. Since the spacecraft has presumably not encountered the termination shock yet, these fluctuations should eventually interact with the shock and thereby play a role in determining the shock location. Numerical solutions of the time-dependent gas dynamic equations are used to simulate the response of the termination shock to fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure comparable to those observed. The primary result of this study is that the maximum shock excursion due to the fluctuations is of the order of 1 AU, which is much smaller than that predicted by other studies. Additional simulations show that the limited movement is due to the fact that the time scale for the termination shock response is substantially larger than the time scale of the fluctuations. It is also shown that the heliopause acts as a barrier for the fluctuations and confines them to the heliosphere.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

Air-sea interactions and precipitation over the tropical oceans

In this lecture, the author principally discusses air-sea exchanges that are relevant to climate and global problems. The processes of interest are those acting over time scales of months to decades, which in some instances are influenced by smaller-time-scale processes, down to the diurnal time scale. The repsective influence of these processes varies with regions, seasons and scales over which they occur and, because these processes are mostly nonlinear, scale interactions can be quite complex. Owing to the breadth of the topic addressed, the discussion is mostly focused on the tropical regions where air-sea interactions and precipitation processes eventually affect the entire globe. This allows a look in more detail at some air-sea processes, such as those associated with the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). This oscillation, which affects the climate of the entire globe, acts over periods of a year or longer and is caused, primarily, by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific. As a result, SST variability is often used as an indicator of coupled ocean-atmosphere low-frequency variability. Global or basin scale processes can uniquely be observed from space-born instruments with the coverage required. Space based techniques have been developed during the last decade which can now be used to illustrate the scientific issues presented and the presentation concludes with an overview of some Earth Observing System (EOS) capabilities for addressing air-sea interactions and hydrology issues.

Gautier, C.↗

Solar activity, the QBO, and tropospheric responses

The suggestion that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as modulated by the solar wind are the carriers of the component of solar variability that affects weather and climate has been discussed in the literature for 30 years, and there is now a considerable body of evidence that supports it. Variations of GCR occur with the 11 year solar cycle, matching the time scale of recent results for atmospheric variations, as modulated by the quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial stratospheric winds (the QBO). Variations in GCR occur on the time scale of centuries with a well defined peak in the coldest decade of the little ice age. New evidence is presented on the meteorological responses to GCR variations on the time scale of a few days. These responses include changes in the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the two days following solar flare related high speed plasma streams and associated GCR decreases, and in decreases in Vorticity Area Index (VAI) following Forbush decreases of GCR. The occurrence of correlations of GCR and meteorological responses on all three time scales strengthens the hypothesis of GCR as carriers of solar variability to the lower atmosphere. Both short and long term tropospheric responses are understandable as changes in the intensity of cyclonic storms initiated by mechanisms involving cloud microphysical and cloud electrification processes, due to changes in local ion production from changes in GCR fluxes and other high energy particles in the MeV to low GeV range. The nature of these mechanisms remains undetermined. Possible stratospheric wind (particularly QBO) effects on the transport of HNO3 and other constituents incorporated in cluster ions and possible condensation and freezing nuclei are considered as relevant to the long term variations.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

The impact of physicochemical property interactions of iso -octane/ethanol blends on ignition timescales

This work presents new measurements of liquid fuel ignition delay times of iso-octane and ethanol fuel blends obtained from an ignition quality tester at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL IQT), which are compared to previous ignition delay data from the University of Michigan rapid compression facility (UM RCF), at the same experimental conditions. Pressure-time histories were used to determine liquid fuel ignition delays at global stoichiometric non-premixed conditions for iso-octane, ethanol and iso-octane/ethanol blends of 25, 50, 75% by volume in mixtures of 10% oxygen diluted in nitrogen. Temperatures ranging from 880 to 970 K were studied at a pressure of 10 atm. By comparing total ignition delay times from the NREL IQT with chemical ignition delay times from the UM RCF, the contributions of physical phenomena were quantified as representative time scales for spray injection, breakup and evaporation processes, and for gas-phase turbulent mixing. Regression analyses were developed for ignition time scales as function of blend level and charge temperature. Non-dimensional analyses were also carried out to determine the relative effects of physical time scales with respect to chemical ignition delay times.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Space–time structure of weak magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

The two-time energy spectrum of weak magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is found by applying a wave-turbulence closure to the cumulant hierarchy constructed from the dynamical equations. Solutions are facilitated via asymptotic expansions in terms of the small parameter $\varepsilon$ , describing the ratio of time scales corresponding to Alfvénic propagation and nonlinear interactions between counter-propagating Alfvén waves. The strength of nonlinearity at a given spatial scale is further quantified by an integration over all possible delta-correlated modes compliant in a given set of three-wave interactions that are associated with energy flux through the said scale. The wave-turbulence closure for the two-time spectrum uncovers a secularity occurring on a time scale of order $\varepsilon ^{-2}$ , and the asymptotic expansion for the spectrum is reordered in a manner comparable to the one-time case. It is shown that for the regime of stationary turbulence, the two-time energy spectrum exponentially decays on a lagged time scale $(\varepsilon ^2 \gamma _k^s)^{-1}$ in proportion to the strength of the associated three-wave interactions, characterized by nonlinear decorrelation frequency $\gamma _k^s$ . The scaling of the form $k_{\perp } v_0 \chi _0$ exhibited by this frequency is reminiscent of random sweeping by the outer scale with characteristic fluctuation velocity $v_0$ that is modified due to competition with Alfvénic propagation (characterized by $\chi _0$ ) at the said scale. A brief calculation of frequency broadening of the power spectrum due to nonlinear interactions is also presented.

Physics↗

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗

Variability of Disk Emission in Pre-Main Sequence and Related Stars. II. Variability in the Gas and Dust Emission of the Herbig Fe Star SAO 206462

We present thirteen epochs of near-infrared (0.8-5 microns) spectroscopic observations of the pre-transitional, "gapped" disk system in SAO 206462 (=HD 135344B). In all, six gas emission lines (Br(alpha) , Br(gamma), Pa(beta), Pa(delta), Pa(epsilon), and the 0.8446 microns line of O I) along with continuum measurements made near the standard J, H, K, and L photometric bands were measured. A mass accretion rate of approximately 2 x 10(exp 8)Solar Mass/yr was derived from the Br(gamma) and Pa(beta) lines. However, the fluxes of these lines varied by a factor of over two during the course of a few months. The continuum also varied, but by only approx.30%, and even decreased at a time when the gas emission was increasing. The H I line at 1.083 microns was also found to vary in a manner inconsistent with that of either the hydrogen lines or the dust. Both the gas and dust variabilities indicate significant changes in the region of the inner gas and the inner dust belt that may be common to many young disk systems. If planets are responsible for defining the inner edge of the gap, they could interact with the material on time scales commensurate with what is observed for the variations in the dust, while other disk instabilities (thermal, magneto-rotational) would operate there on longer time scales than we observe for the inner dust belt. For SAO 206462, the orbital period would likely be 1-3 years. If the changes are being induced in the disk material closer to the star than the gap, a variety of mechanisms (disk instabilities, interactions via planets) might be responsible for the changes seen. The He I feature is most likely due to a wind whose orientation changes with respect to the observer on time scales of a day or less. To further constrain the origin of the gas and dust emission will require multiple spectroscopic and interferometric observations on both shorter and longer time scales that have been sampled so far.

Sitko, Michael L.↗

Superplastic Creep of Metal Nanowires From Rate-Dependent Plasticity Transition

Understanding the time-dependent mechanical behavior of nanomaterials such as nanowires is essential to predict their reliability in nanomechanical devices. This understanding is typically obtained using creep tests, which are the most fundamental loading mechanism by which the time dependent deformation of materials is characterized. However, due to existing challenges facing both experimentalists and theorists, the time dependent mechanical response of nanowires is not well-understood. Here, we use atomistic simulations that can access experimental time scales to examine the creep of single-crystal face-centered cubic metal (Cu, Ag, Pt) nanowires. Here, we report that both Cu and Ag nanowires show significantly increased ductility and superplasticity under low creep stresses, where the superplasticity is driven by a rate-dependent transition in defect nucleation from twinning to trailing partial dislocations at the micro- or millisecond time scale. The transition in the deformation mechanism also governs a corresponding transition in the stress-dependent creep time at the microsecond (Ag) and millisecond (Cu) time scales. Overall, this work demonstrates the necessity of accessing time scales that far exceed those seen in conventional atomistic modeling for accurate insights into the time-dependent mechanical behavior and properties of nanomaterials.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales

Characteristics of precipitation estimates for rate and amount from three global high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), four global climate data records (CDRs), and four reanalyses are compared. All datasets considered have at least daily temporal resolution. Estimates of global precipitation differ widely from one product to the next, with some differences likely due to differing goals in producing the estimates. HRPPs are intended to produce the best snapshot of the precipitation estimate locally. CDRs of precipitation emphasize homogeneity over instantaneous accuracy. Precipitation estimates from global reanalyses are dynamically consistent with the large-scale circulation but tend to compare poorly to rain gauge estimates since they are forecast by the reanalysis system and precipitation is not assimilated. Regional differences among the estimates in the means and variances are as large as the means and variances, respectively. Even with similar monthly totals, precipitation rates vary significantly among the estimates. Temporal correlations among datasets are large at annual and daily time scales, suggesting that compensating bias errors at annual and random errors at daily time scales dominate the differences. However, the signal-to-noise ratio at intermediate (monthly) time scales can be large enough to result in high correlations overall. It is shown that differences on annual time scales and continental regions are around 0.8 mm day -1 , which corresponds to 23 W m -2 . These wide variations in the estimates, even for global averages, highlight the need for better constrained precipitation products in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the use of finite difference matrix-vector products in Newton-Krylov solvers for implicit climate dynamics with spectral elements

Efficient solutions of global climate models require effectively handling disparate length and time scales. Implicit solution approaches allow time integration of the physical system with a step size governed by accuracy of the processes of interest rather than by stability of the fastest time scales present. Implicit approaches, however, require the solution of nonlinear systems within each time step. Usually, a Newton's method is applied to solve these systems. Each iteration of the Newton's method, in turn, requires the solution of a linear model of the nonlinear system. This model employs the Jacobian of the problem-defining nonlinear residual, but this Jacobian can be costly to form. If a Krylov linear solver is used for the solution of the linear system, the action of the Jacobian matrix on a given vector is required. In the case of spectral element methods, the Jacobian is not calculated but only implemented through matrix-vector products. The matrix-vector multiply can also be approximated by a finite difference approximation which may introduce inaccuracy in the overall nonlinear solver. In this paper, we review the advantages and disadvantages of finite difference approximations of these matrix-vector products for climate dynamics within the spectral element shallow water dynamical core of the Community Atmosphere Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Use of Finite Difference Matrix-Vector Products in Newton-Krylov Solvers for Implicit Climate Dynamics with Spectral Elements

Efficient solution of global climate models requires effectively handling disparate length and time scales. Implicit solution approaches allow time integration of the physical system with a time step dictated by accuracy of the processes of interest rather than by stability governed by the fastest of the time scales present. Implicit approaches, however, require the solution of nonlinear systems within each time step. Usually, a Newton s method is applied for these systems. Each iteration of the Newton s method, in turn, requires the solution of a linear model of the nonlinear system. This model employs the Jacobian of the problem-defining nonlinear residual, but this Jacobian can be costly to form. If a Krylov linear solver is used for the solution of the linear system, the action of the Jacobian matrix on a given vector is required. In the case of spectral element methods, the Jacobian is not calculated but only implemented through matrix-vector products. The matrix-vector multiply can also be approximated by a finite-difference which may show a loss of accuracy in the overall nonlinear solver. In this paper, we review the advantages and disadvantages of finite-difference approximations of these matrix-vector products for climate dynamics within the spectral-element based shallow-water dynamical-core of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM).

climate modeling↗

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Magnectic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynamical hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth s core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypotheses pass the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth s core, this yields a JGR-PI, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale change.In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at length- scale l/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy- overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magneto- geostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core-mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core- source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order 120 years is pseudo-scale-invariant. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conducting fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte↗

Magnetic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynmcal hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth's core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypothes pass the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth's core, this yields a generalized Stevenson-McLeod spectrum for the core-source field, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale change. In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at lentgh-scale l/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy- overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magneto-geostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core- mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core-source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order l20 years is pseudo-scale-invarient. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conductmg fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

Adaptive Time Step Control for Multirate Infinitesimal Methods

Multirate methods have been used for decades to temporally evolve initial-value problems in which different components evolve on distinct time scales, and thus use of different step sizes for these components can result in increased computational efficiency. Generally, such methods select these different step sizes based on experimentation or stability considerations. For problems that evolve on a single time scale, adaptivity approaches that strive to control local temporal error are widely used to achieve numerical results of a desired accuracy with minimal computational effort, while alleviating the need for manual experimentation with different time step sizes. However, there is a notable gap in the publication record on the development of adaptive time step controllers for multirate methods. In this paper, we extend the single-rate controller work of Gustafsson [ACM Trans. Math. Software, 20 (1994), pp. 496-517] to the multirate method setting. Specifically, we develop controllers based on polynomial approximations to the principal error functions for both the "fast" and "slow" time scales within multirate infinitesimal (MRI) methods. We additionally investigate a variety of approaches for estimating the errors arising from each time scale within MRI methods. We then numerically evaluate the proposed multirate controllers and error estimation strategies on a range of multirate test problems, comparing their performance against an estimated optimal performance. Through this work, we combine the most performant of these approaches to arrive at a set of multirate adaptive time step controllers that robustly achieve desired solution accuracy with minimal computational effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Perspective: Ultrafast magnetism and THz spintronics

This year the discovery of femtosecond demagnetization by laser pulses is 20 years old. For the first time, this milestone work by Bigot and coworkers gave insight directly into the time scales of microscopic interactions that connect the spin and electron system. While intense discussions in the field were fueled by the complexity of the processes in the past, it now became evident that it is a puzzle of many different parts. Rather than providing an overview that has been presented in previous reviews on ultrafast processes in ferromagnets, this perspective will show that with our current depth of knowledge the first applications are developed: THz spintronics and all-optical spin manipulation are becoming more and more feasible. The aim of this perspective is to point out where we can connect the different puzzle pieces of understanding gathered over 20 years to develop novel applications. Based on many observations in a large number of experiments. Differences in the theoretical models arise from the localized and delocalized nature of ferromagnetism. Transport effects are intrinsically non-local in spintronic devices and at interfaces. We review the need for multiscale modeling to address the processes starting from electronic excitation of the spin system on the picometer length scale and sub-femtosecond time scale, to spin wave generation, and towards the modeling of ultrafast phase transitions that altogether determine the response time of the ferromagnetic system. Today, our current understanding gives rise to the first usage of ultrafast spin physics for ultrafast magnetism control: THz spintronic devices. This makes the field of ultrafast spin-dynamics an emerging topic open for many researchers right now.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Using Low-Frequency Earthquake Families on the San Andreas Fault as Deep Creepmeters

The central section of the San Andreas Fault hosts tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) similar to subduction zone environments. LFEs are often interpreted as persistent regions that repeatedly fail during the aseismic shear of the surrounding fault allowing them to be used as creepmeters. Here, we test this idea by using the recurrence intervals of individual LFEs within LFE families to estimate the timing, duration, recurrence interval, slip, and slip rate associated with inferred slow slip events. We formalize the definition of a creepmeter and determine whether this definition is consistent with our observations. We find that episodic families reflect surrounding creep over the interevent time, while the continuous families and the short time scale bursts that occur as part of the episodic families do not. However, when these families are evaluated on time scales longer than the interevent time these events can also be used to meter slip. A straightforward interpretation of episodic families is that they define sections of the fault where slip is distinctly episodic in well-defined slow slip events that slip 16 times the long-term rate. In contrast, the frequent short-term bursts of the continuous and short time scale episodic families likely do not represent individual creep events but rather are persistent asperities that are driven to failure by quasi-continuous creep on the surrounding fault. We find that the moment-duration scaling of our inferred creep events are inconsistent with the proposed linear moment-duration scaling. However, caution must be exercised when attempting to determine scaling with incomplete knowledge of scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗