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WMAP Detection of Early Reionization

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) has mapped the full sky in Stokes I, Q, and U parameters at frequencies 23, 33, 41, 61, and 94 GHz. We detect correlations between the temperature and polarization maps significant at more than 10 standard deviations. The correlations are inconsistent with instrument noise and are significantly larger than the upper limits established for potential systematic errors. The correlations are present in all WMAP frequency bands with similar amplitude from 23 to 94 GHz, and are consistent with a superposition of a CMB signal with a weak foreground. The fitted CMB component is robust against different data combinations and fitting techniques. On small angular scales the WMAP data show the temperature-polarization correlation expected from adiabatic density perturbations. The data for $\ell > 20$ agree well with the signal predicted solely from the temperature power spectra, with no additional free parameters. The existence of correlations on super-horizon scales provides significant support for inflationary cosmologies. We detect excess power on large angular scales compared to predictions based on the temperature power spectra alone. The excess power is well described by reionization at redshift $11 < z < 30$ at 95\% confidence. A model-independent fit to reionization optical depth yields results consistent with the best-fit $\Lambda$CDM model, with best fit value $\tau = 0.17 \pm 0.04$ at 68\% confidence, including systematic and foreground uncertainties. This trough in the absorption spectra of distant quasars, and implies that the universe has a complex ionization history. I will discuss the WMAP data and its implications for reionization in the early universe.

Kogut, A.↗

Accurate determination of the electron spin polarization in magnetized iron and nickel foils for Møller polarimetry

The Møller polarimeter in Hall A at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, VA, has provided reliable measurements of electron beam polarization for the past two decades. Past experiments have typically required polarimetry at the 1% level of absolute uncertainty which the Møller polarimeter has delivered. However, the upcoming proposed experimental program including MOLLER and SoLID have stringent requirements on beam polarimetry precision at the level of 0.4% (The MOLLER Collaboration, 2014; The SoLID collaboration, 2019), requiring a systematic re-examination of all the contributing uncertainties. Møller polarimetry uses the double polarized scattering asymmetry of a polarized electron beam on a target with polarized atomic electrons. The target is a ferromagnetic material magnetized to align the spins in a given direction. In Hall A, the target is a pure iron foil aligned perpendicular to the beam and magnetized out of plane parallel or antiparallel to the beam direction. The acceptance of the detector is engineered to collect scattered electrons close to 90° in the center of mass frame where the analyzing power is a maximum (-7/9). One of the leading systematic errors comes from determination of the target foil polarization. Polarization of a magnetically saturated target foil requires knowledge of both the saturation magnetization and g', the electron g-factor which includes components from both spin and orbital angular momentum from which the spin fraction of magnetization is determined. Target foil polarization has been previously addressed in a 1997 publication “A precise target for Møller polarimetry” by de Bever et al. (1997) at a level of precision sufficient for experiments up to this point. Several shortcomings with the previous published value require revisiting the result prior to MOLLER. Here, we utilize the existing world data to provide a best estimate for target polarization for both nickel and iron foils including uncertainties in magnetization, high-field and temperature dependence, and fractional contribution to magnetization from orbital effects. We determine the foil electron spin polarization at 294 K to be 0.08020 ± 0.00018 (@4 T applied field) for iron and 0.018845+/-0.000053 (@2 T applied field) for nickel. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of additional systematic uncertainties to Møller polarimetry using this technique.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) First Year Observations: TE Polarization

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) has mapped the full sky in Stokes I, Q, and U parameters at frequencies 23, 33, 41, 61, and 94 GHz. We detect correlations between the temperature and polarization maps significant at more than 10 standard deviations. The correlations are inconsistent with instrument noise and are significantly larger than the upper limits established for potential systematic errors. The correlations are present in all WAMP frequency bands with similar amplitude from 23 to 94 GHz, and are consistent with a superposition of a CMB signal with a weak foreground. The fitted CMB component is robust against different data combinations and fitting techniques. On small angular scales (theta less than 5 deg), the WMAP data show the temperature-polarization correlation expected from adiabatic perturbations in the temperature power spectrum. The data for l greater than 20 agree well with the signal predicted solely from the temperature power spectra, with no additional free parameters. We detect excess power on large angular scales (theta greater than 10 deg) compared to predictions based on the temperature power spectra alone. The excess power is well described by reionization at redshift 11 is less than z(sub r) is less than 30 at 95% confidence, depending on the ionization history. A model-independent fit to reionization optical depth yields results consistent with the best-fit ACDM model, with best fit value t = 0.17 +/- 0.04 at 68% confidence, including systematic and foreground uncertainties. This value is larger than expected given the detection of a Gunn-Peterson trough in the absorption spectra of distant quasars, and implies that the universe has a complex ionization history: WMAP has detected the signal from an early epoch of reionization.

Kogut, A.↗

A Hard Look at the Neutron Stars and Accretion Disks in 4U 1636-53, GX 17+2, and 4U 1705-44 with NuStar

We present NuSTAR observations of neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binaries: 4U 1636-53, GX 17+2, and 4U 1705-44. We observed 4U 1636-53 in the hard state, with an Eddington fraction, F{sub Edd}, of 0.01; GX 17+2 and 4U 1705-44 were in the soft state with fractions of 0.57 and 0.10, respectively. Each spectrum shows evidence for a relativistically broadened Fe K{sub α} line. Through accretion disk reflection modeling, we constrain the radius of the inner disk in 4U 1636-53 to be R{sub in}=1.03±0.03 ISCO (innermost stable circular orbit), assuming a dimensionless spin parameter a{sub ∗}=cJ/GM{sup 2}=0.0, and R{sub in}=1.08±0.06 ISCO for a{sub ∗}=0.3 (errors quoted at 1σ). This value proves to be model independent. For a{sub ∗}=0.3 and M=1.4 M{sub ⊙}, for example, 1.08 ± 0.06 ISCO translates to a physical radius of R=10.8±0.6 km, and the NS would have to be smaller than this radius (other outcomes are possible for allowed spin parameters and masses). For GX 17+2, R{sub in}=1.00--1.04 ISCO for a{sub ∗}=0.0 and R{sub in}=1.03--1.30 ISCO for a{sub ∗}=0.3. For a{sub ∗}=0.3 and M=1.4 M{sub ⊙}, R{sub in}=1.03--1.30 ISCO translates to R=10.3--13.0 km. The inner accretion disk in 4U 1705-44 may be truncated just above the stellar surface, perhaps by a boundary layer or magnetosphere; reflection models give a radius of 1.46–1.64 ISCO for a{sub ∗}=0.0 and 1.69–1.93 ISCO for a{sub ∗}=0.3. We discuss the implications our results may have on the equation of state of ultradense, cold matter and our understanding of the innermost accretion flow onto NSs with low surface magnetic fields, and systematic errors related to the reflection models and spacetime metric around less idealized NSs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-E-T-642: Safety Procedures for Error Elimination in Cyberknife Stereotactic Radiosurgery (SRS) and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT)

Purpose: Cyberknife system is used for providing stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) hypofractionation scheme. The whole treatment delivery is based on live imaging of the patient. The minor error made at any stage may bring severe radiation injury to the patient or damage to the system itself. Several safety measures were taken to make the system safer. Methods: The radiation treatment provided thru a 6MV linac attached to Kuka robot (Cyberknife G4, Accuray Inc. Sunnyvale, CA, USA). Several possible errors were identified related to patient alignment, treatment planning, dose delivery and physics quality assurance. During dose delivery, manual and visual checks were introduced to confirm pre and intra-treatment imaging to reduce possible errors. One additional step was introduced to confirm that software tracking-tools had worked correctly with highest possible confidence level. Robotic head move in different orientations over and around the patient body, the rigidity of linac-head cover and other accessories was checked periodically. The vender was alerted when a tiny or bigger piece of equipment needed additional interlocked support. Results: As of our experience treating 525 patients on Cyberknife during the last four years, we saw on and off technical issues. During image acquisition, it was made essential to follow the site-specific imaging protocols. Adequate anatomy was contoured to document the respective doses. Followed by auto-segmentation, manual tweaking was performed on every structure. The calculation box was enclosing the whole image during the final calculation. Every plan was evaluated on slice-by slice basis. To review the whole process, a check list was maintained during the physics 2nd-check. Conclusion: The implementation of manual and visual additional checks introduced along with automated checks for confirmation was found promising in terms of reduction in systematic errors and making the system safer than before.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Resolve survey photometry and volume-limited calibration of the photometric gas fractions technique

We present custom-processed ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared photometry for the REsolved Spectroscopy of a Local VolumE (RESOLVE) survey, a volume-limited census of stellar, gas, and dynamical mass within two subvolumes of the nearby universe (RESOLVE-A and RESOLVE-B). RESOLVE is complete down to baryonic mass ∼10{sup 9.1−9.3} M{sub ⊙}, probing the upper end of the dwarf galaxy regime. In contrast to standard pipeline photometry (e.g., SDSS), our photometry uses optimal background subtraction, avoids suppressing color gradients, and employs multiple flux extrapolation routines to estimate systematic errors. With these improvements, we measure brighter magnitudes, larger radii, bluer colors, and a real increase in scatter around the red sequence. Combining stellar mass estimates based on our optimized photometry with the nearly complete H i mass census for RESOLVE-A, we create new z = 0 volume-limited calibrations of the photometric gas fractions (PGF) technique, which predicts gas-to-stellar mass ratios (G/S) from galaxy colors and optional additional parameters. We analyze G/S-color residuals versus potential third parameters, finding that axial ratio is the best independent and physically meaningful third parameter. We define a “modified color” from planar fits to G/S as a function of both color and axial ratio. In the complete galaxy population, upper limits on G/S bias linear and planar fits. We therefore model the entire PGF probability density field, enabling iterative statistical modeling of upper limits and prediction of full G/S probability distributions for individual galaxies. These distributions have two-component structure in the red color regime. Finally, we use the RESOLVE-B 21 cm census to test several PGF calibrations, finding that most systematically under- or overestimate gas masses, but the full probability density method performs well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraints on Neutrino Oscillation Parameters from Neutrinos and Antineutrinos with Machine Learning

NOvA is a two detector, long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment measuring the oscillations of muon neutrinos from the \numi neutrino beam over a baseline of \SI{810}{km}. The experiment uses four oscillation channels, $\numu \rightarrow \numu$, $\numubar \rightarrow \numubar$, $\numu \rightarrow \nue$, and $\numubar \rightarrow \nuebar$, with a peak neutrino energy of \SI{1.8}{GeV}. This dissertation describes the analysis of these channels using a dataset of $13.6\times10^{20}$ protons on target neutrino beam mode and $12.5\times10^{20}$ protons on target antineutrino beam mode. The analysis makes use of improvements in the treatment of systematic uncertainties and machine learning techniques to reconstruct neutrino interactions. A technique for decorrelating systematic errors using principle component analysis was utilized to reduce and optimize neutrino cross section and beam related uncertainties. The improved machine learning algorithms make use of convolutional ne ural net works for neutrino event classification, particle classification, and instance segmentation. The selection of neutrino signal events utilizing the neutrino event classifier shows an efficiency of 63\% for the selection of electron neutrinos in neutrino beam mode and 75\% for electron antineutrinos in antineutrino beam mode. Using this algorithm, 82 appearing electron neutrino candidates and 33 appearing electron antineutrino candidates were observed with expected backgrounds of 26.8 and 14.0 respectively. In addition, 211 surviving muon neutrino candidates and 105 muon antineutrino candidates were identified with a purity of more than 96\% using the same neutrino event classifier. Fitting these data to the three flavor neutrino oscillation model, using constraints on \thetaonetwo, \thetaonethree, and \dmsqonetwo from solar and reactor neutrino experiments, the oscillation parameters are measured to be $\sintwothree = 0.57^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, $\dmsqthreetwo = \SI[parse-numbers= false]{+ 2.41\pm0.07 \times 10^{-3}}{eV^2}$, and $\dcp=0.82^{+0.27}_{-0.87}\pi$ with a preference for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. Leading systematic uncertainties for these measurements come from detector calibration and neutrino interaction models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗

Cluster cosmology without cluster finding

ABSTRACT We propose that observations of supermassive galaxies contain cosmological statistical constraining power similar to conventional cluster cosmology, and we provide promising indications that the associated systematic errors are comparably easier to control. We consider a fiducial spectroscopic and stellar mass complete sample of galaxies drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and forecast how constraints on Ωm–σ8 from this sample will compare with those from number counts of clusters based on richness λ. At fixed number density, we find that massive galaxies offer similar constraints to galaxy clusters. However, a mass-complete galaxy sample from DESI has the potential to probe lower halo masses than standard optical cluster samples (which are typically limited to λ ≳ 20 and Mhalo ≳ 1013.5 M⊙ h−1); additionally, it is straightforward to cleanly measure projected galaxy clustering wp for such a DESI sample, which we show can substantially improve the constraining power on Ωm. We also compare the constraining power of M*-limited samples to those from larger but mass-incomplete samples [e.g. the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) sample]; relative to a lower number density M*-limited samples, we find that a BGS-like sample improves statistical constraints by 60 per cent for Ωm and 40 per cent for σ8, but this uses small-scale information that will be harder to model for BGS. Our initial assessment of the systematics associated with supermassive galaxy cosmology yields promising results. The proposed samples have a ∼10 per cent satellite fraction, but we show that cosmological constraints may be robust to the impact of satellites. These findings motivate future work to realize the potential of supermassive galaxies to probe lower halo masses than richness-based clusters and to potentially avoid persistent systematics associated with optical cluster finding.

(cosmology): large-scale structure of Universe↗

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

Backus, George E.↗

TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA COLORS AND EJECTA VELOCITIES: HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN REGRESSION WITH NON-GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTIONS

We investigate the statistical dependence of the peak intrinsic colors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) on their expansion velocities at maximum light, measured from the Si II λ6355 spectral feature. We construct a new hierarchical Bayesian regression model, accounting for the random effects of intrinsic scatter, measurement error, and reddening by host galaxy dust, and implement a Gibbs sampler and deviance information criteria to estimate the correlation. The method is applied to the apparent colors from BVRI light curves and Si II velocity data for 79 nearby SNe Ia. The apparent color distributions of high-velocity (HV) and normal velocity (NV) supernovae exhibit significant discrepancies for B – V and B – R, but not other colors. Hence, they are likely due to intrinsic color differences originating in the B band, rather than dust reddening. The mean intrinsic B – V and B – R color differences between HV and NV groups are 0.06 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 mag, respectively. A linear model finds significant slopes of –0.021 ± 0.006 and –0.030 ± 0.009 mag (10{sup 3} km s{sup –1}){sup –1} for intrinsic B – V and B – R colors versus velocity, respectively. Because the ejecta velocity distribution is skewed toward high velocities, these effects imply non-Gaussian intrinsic color distributions with skewness up to +0.3. Accounting for the intrinsic-color-velocity correlation results in corrections to A{sub V} extinction estimates as large as –0.12 mag for HV SNe Ia and +0.06 mag for NV events. Velocity measurements from SN Ia spectra have the potential to diminish systematic errors from the confounding of intrinsic colors and dust reddening affecting supernova distances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving Global Reanalyses and Short Range Forecast Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Moisture Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a "1+1"D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the "1+1"D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+lD scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Improving Global Reanalyses and Short-Range Forecast Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Moisture Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a 1+1D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the 1+1D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSW rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Accuracy/Computation Performance of a New Trilateration Scheme for GPS-Style Localization

We recently introduced a new geometric trilateration (GT) method for GPS-style positioning. Preliminary singlepoint analysis using simplistic error assumptions indicates that the new scheme delivers almost indistinguishable localization accuracy as the traditional Newton-Raphson (NR) approach. Also, the same computation procedure can be used to perform high-accuracy relative positioning between a reference vehicle and an arbitrary number of target vehicles. This scheme has the potential to enable a) new mission concepts in collaborative science, b) in-situ navigation services for human Mars missions, and c) lower cost and faster acquisition of GPS signals for consumer-grade GPS products. The new GT scheme differs from the NR scheme as follows: 1. The new scheme is derived from Pythagoras Theorem, whereas the NR method is based on the principle of linear regression. 2. The NR method uses the absolute locations (xi, yi, zi)’s of the GPS satellites as input to each step of the localization computation. The GT method uses the Directional Cosines Ui’s from Earth’s center to the GPS satellite Si. 3. Both the NR method and the GT method iterate to converge to a localized solution. In each iteration step, multiple matrix operations are performed. The NR method constructs a different matrix in each iterative step, thus requires performing a new set of matrix operations in each step. The GT scheme uses the same matrix in each iteration, thus requiring computing the matrix operations only once for all subsequent iterations. In this paper, we perform an in-depth comparison between the GT scheme and the NR method in terms of a) GPS localization accuracy in the GPS operation environment, b) its sensitivity with respect to systematic errors and random errors, and c) computation load required to converge to a localization solution.

Lee, Charles↗

Synoptic Mapping of Chemical Composition, Thermal Structure, and Air Motion from UARS Observations

An operational mapping algorithm was developed to process measurements of individual species observed by different satellite instruments on board UARS. Based on Fast Fourier Synoptic Mapping (FFSM), the algorithm accounts for the precessing orbit of UARS, the error of individual instruments, and gaps associated with instrument duty cycle and the satellite yaw maneuver. It provides synoptic structure and evolution on periods as short as 1 day, derived collectively from all observations of an individual species. The algorithm was applied to synoptically map temperature, thickness, and several chemical constituents observed by the instruments: MLS, CLAES, ISAMS, and HALOE. Each field variable observed by these instruments was mapped twice-daily in continuous global time series several months long. Mapped behavior produced via FFSM was compared against standard archived products generated via Kalman filtering. The standard map products reveal similar behavior, but are limited to features of larger scale. Tracer structure that develops through flow deformation and attending transport is therefore represented in those products more coarsely, eventually being sheared down to scales that are no longer represented properly. The synoptic time series also reveal a diurnal cycle for several of the constituents, one that emerges clearly in their space-time spectra. The zonal and meridional structure of diurnal variability was mapped by filtering the space-time spectrum, an intermediate product of FFSM, to those scales resolved by the UARS sampling. Geographical variations of the diurnal cycle have also been evaluated in its seasonal-mean structure by compositing distributions at individual local times. Both were compared to diurnal variations in chemical models and in dynamical models that account for transport by the diurnal tide. Diurnal variations were found to introduce spurious behavior into the archived products generated via Kalman filtering, behavior that is misrepresented in those synoptic time series. Aliasing by under-sampled diurnal variations introduces a bias into the time-mean structure of archived products. That systematic error is manifested as anomalous wave structure in the time-mean fields. By contrast, synoptic time series generated via FFSM faithfully represent such behavior as varying diurnally, so it does not corrupt time-mean structure. Tracer structure mapped via the above algorithm was being applied to determine the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the stratosphere through Lagrangian considerations. Preliminary results are encouraging: They reveal diabatic ascent in the tropics, balanced by diabatic descent over the winter hemisphere. This Lagrangian description of transport derived from UARS tracer measurements would be potentially valuable for diagnosing interannual changes of transport, specifically, in relation to interannual changes of total ozone. Regrettably, support was reduced to 50% of the approved funding level, leaving this component incomplete.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Global Geochemical Variation on the Lunar Surface: A Three-Element Approach

We present a method for displaying the relative abundances of three important elements (Th, Fe, and Ti) on the same map projection of the lunar surface. Using Th-, Fe-, and Ti-elemental abundances from orbital geochemical data and assigning each element a primary color, a false-color map of the lunar surface was created. This approach is similar to the ternary diagram approach presented by Davis and Spudis with some important differences, discussed later. For the present maps, Th abundances were measured by the Lunar Prospector (LP) Gamma-Ray Spectrometer(GRS).The new LPGRS low-altitude dataset was used in this analysis. Iron and Ti weight percentages were based on Clementine spectral reflectance data smoothed to the LP low altitude footprint. This method of presentation was designed to aid in the location and recognition of three principal lunar compositions: ferroan anorthosite (FAN), mare basalts (MB), and the Mg suite/ KREEP-rich rocks on the lunar surface, with special emphasis on the highlands and specific impact basins. In addition to the recognition of these endmember rock compositions, this method is an attempt to examine the relationship between elemental compositions that do not conform readily to previously accepted or observed endmember rocks in various specific regions of interest, including eastern highlands regions centered on 150 deg longitude, and a northern highlands Th-rich region observed. The LP low-altitude data has full width at half-maximum spatial resolution of about 40 km. The Clementine spectral reflectance datasets were adapted using an equal-area, gaussian smoothing routine to this footprint. In addition, these datasets, reported in weight percent of FeO and of Ti02, were adjusted to Fe and Ti weight percentages. Each dataset was then assigned one of the three primary colors: blue for Th, red for Fe, and green for Ti. For each element, the data range was normalized to represent the ratio of each point to the maximum in the dataset. (To view the color table, go to http://cass.jsc.nasa.gov/meetings/moon99/pdf/8033.pdf.) The full range of lunar longitudes is represented, but due to the lack of coverage of the Clementine data for latitudes > 70 deg and <-70 deg, the data for these regions is excluded. The differences between this approach and the ternary diagram approach of Davis and Spudis eliminate some of the uncertainty and ambiguity of the ternary diagram approach. Rather than using a ratio of Th to Ti normalized to CI chondritic ratios, and a ternary diagram with ternary apexes located at specific endmember compositional values, elemental compositions were used independently, eliminating the errors resulting from dividing numbers that can have high uncertainties, especially at low concentration. The three elements used in this method of presentation were chosen for several reasons. One reason for the inclusion of Th in this study is that it is an accurate indicator of KREEP. Iron and Ti concentrations are both low in highland regolith, causing any small fluctuations in Th to stand out very well. In addition, Fe and Ti are good compositional indicators of different mare basalts. Mixed with red for Fe, the green for Ti produces a yellow signal in high-Ti basalts. While universally high in Fe relative to the surrounding highlands, mare basalts have a diverse range of Ti values, making Ti concentration a valuable asset to the classification and identification of different basalt types. Finally, an important constraint in element selection is the availability of the global data, both from LP and Clementine results. Data for Th, Fe, and Ti are among the highest quality of existing lunar remote-sensing data. In addition, LP data for Fe and Ti will become available, enabling these data to be incorporated into the analysis. Using upper-limit values for end member rock compositions calculated from Korotev et al., attempts were made to locate the different endmember compositions of terranes on this diagram. Most strikingly, ferroan anorthosite (Th < and = 0.37 micro g/g; Fe (wt%)< and =2.29; Ti (wt%) < and = 0.22), which should appear as an almost black, reddish color, does not appear on the diagram at any noticeable frequency. Based on this analysis, the suggestion of extensive FAN regions on the lunar surface is not strong, especially at the presently accepted values for Fe and Th. However, to make sure this effect is not due to systematic errors, a thorough investigation of the precision, accuracy, and uncertainties of the Fe, Ti, and Th abundances needs to be carried out, especially at low concentrations. A particular region of interest is an area of high Th concentrations relative to Fe and Ti content north and east of Humboldtianum Crater. First observed by Lawrence et al., this region does not coincide with any visible impact structure and comprises one of the closest approximations to pure blue (high Th, very low Ti and Fe) on the lunar surface. Such an elemental composition does not lend itself readily to classification, and presents something of an anomaly. More detailed analysis of this region is needed to understand its structure and origin. There seems to be a longitudinal asymmetry in the Th concentrations of the highlands regolith. High-Th, low-Ti, and Fe regions are located between 135 deg and 180 deg longitude and between -30 deg and +30 deg latitude. While the Th levels are not high enough to attract attention in a single elemental display, the variation in the abundance of Th relative to Fe and Ti abundances can be clearly seen. The composition that these data suggest is not well represented in the sample return suite. In addition, these regions were largely missed by the Apollo orbital ground tracks, which only covered the outer edge of the areas of interest. The LP orbital Th data represent the first information about the Th concentrations in these regions of the highlands. Additional information contained in original.

Thomsen, D. R.↗

Lattice QCD Calculation of Nucleon Structure

It is emphasized in the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan that "understanding the structure of hadrons in terms of QCD's quarks and gluons is one of the central goals of modern nuclear physics." Over the last three decades, lattice QCD has developed into a powerful tool for ab initio calculations of strong-interaction physics. Up until now, it is the only theoretical approach to solving QCD with controlled statistical and systematic errors. Since 1985, we have proposed and carried out first-principles calculations of nucleon structure and hadron spectroscopy using lattice QCD which entails both algorithmic development and large-scale computer simulation. We started out by calculating the nucleon form factors -- electromagnetic, axial-vector, πNN, and scalar form factors, the quark spin contribution to the proton spin, the strangeness magnetic moment, the quark orbital angular momentum, the quark momentum fraction, and the quark and glue decomposition of the proton momentum and angular momentum. The first round of calculations were done with Wilson fermions in the `quenched' approximation where the dynamical effects of the quarks in the sea are not taken into account in the Monte Carlo simulation to generate the background gauge configurations. Beginning in 2000, we have started implementing the overlap fermion formulation into the spectroscopy and structure calculations. This is mainly because the overlap fermion honors chiral symmetry as in the continuum. It is going to be more and more important to take the symmetry into account as the simulations move closer to the physical point where the u and d quark masses are as light as a few MeV only. We began with lattices which have quark masses in the sea corresponding to a pion mass at ~ 300 MeV and obtained the strange form factors, charm and strange quark masses, the charmonium spectrum and the D s meson decay constant f D s , the strangeness and charmness, the meson mass decomposition and the strange quark spin from the anomalous Ward identity. Recently, we have started to include multiple lattices with different lattice spacings and different volumes including large lattices at the physical pion mass point. We are getting quite close to being able to calculate the hadron structure at the physical point and to do the continuum and large volume extrapolations, which is our ultimate aim. We have now finished several projects which have included these systematic corrections. They include the leptonic decay width of the ρ, the πN sigma and strange sigma terms, and the strange quark magnetic moment. Over the years, we have also studied hadron spectroscopy with lattice calculations and in phenomenology. These include Roper resonance, pentaquark state, charmonium spectrum, glueballs, scalar mesons a 0 (1450) and σ(600) and other scalar mesons, and the 1 -+ meson. In addition, we have employed the canonical approach to explore the first-order phase transition and the critical point at finite density and finite temperature. We have also discovered a new parton degree of freedom -- the connected sea partons, from the path-integral formulation of the hadronic tensor, which explains the experimentally observed Gottfried sum rule violation. Combining experimental result on the strange parton distribution, the CT10 global fitting results of the total u and d anti-partons and the lattice result of the ratio of the momentum fraction of the strange vs that of u or d in the disconnected insertion, we have shown that the connected sea partons can be isolated. In this final technical report, we shall present a few representative highlights that have been achieved in the project.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Improving Reanalyses Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Total Precipitable Water Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data types reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also leads to a better short-range forecast, but the impact is modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged fields. These results suggest that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, it is possible to improve the time-averaged "climate content" in the assimilated data without comparable improvements in the short-range forecast skill. Results of this experiment provide a useful benchmark for evaluating error covariance models for optimal use of these data types.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗