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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Structure of Offshore Low-Level Jet Turbulence and Implications to Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling

This paper explores realistic nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence arising from nonstationarity at the mesoscale, particularly within offshore low-level jets with implications to offshore wind farms, using high-fidelity multiscale large-eddy simulations (LES). To this end, we analyzed the single-point turbulence statistical structure of a North-Atlantic offshore LLJ event simulated using high-resolution LES (AMR-Wind). The nonstationary LLJ is simulated using a mesoscale-to-microscale coupled (MMC) simulation procedure involving data assimilation of mesoscale velocity and temperature data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Unlike the assimilation of mesoscale velocity data into the LES, the direct assimilation of temperature profiles had a strong impact on turbulence stratification, thereby causing erroneous predictions of turbulence both above and within the jet layer. Various approaches to mitigate this effect have resulted in multiple (four) variants of this MMC strategy. Outcomes from this work clearly show that the turbulence within the low-level jet is a strong function of the MMC approach as the turbulence structure within the low-level jet is dependent on the flux of residual turbulence from outside the jet, which in turn depends on the temperature forcing history. Additionally, the turbulence predicted by all these different methods (as well as the observation data) show similar deviations from equilibrium as evidenced by comparisons with idealized atmospheric turbulence structure obtained using the same numerical method. In general, we observe that the predicted LLJ turbulence tends to differ from canonical ABL turbulence with comparable shear. Particularly, the combination of shear and turbulence observed in such nonstationary low-level turbulence cannot be matched using equilibrium settings and therefore, represents a critical use-case for both testing and leveraging meso–micro coupling strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Progress in Turbulence Detection via GNSS Occultation Data

The increased availability of radio occultation (RO) data offers the ability to detect and study turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere. An analysis of how RO data can be used to determine the strength and location of turbulent regions is presented. This includes the derivation of a model for the power spectrum of the log-amplitude and phase fluctuations of the permittivity (or index of refraction) field. The bulk of the paper is then concerned with the estimation of the model parameters. Parameter estimators are introduced and some of their statistical properties are studied. These estimators are then applied to simulated log-amplitude RO signals. This includes the analysis of global statistics derived from a large number of realizations, as well as case studies that illustrate various specific aspects of the problem. Improvements to the basic estimation methods are discussed, and their beneficial properties are illustrated. The estimation techniques are then applied to real occultation data. Only two cases are presented, but they illustrate some of the salient features inherent in real data.

Cornman, L. B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Engineering in Air Traffic Management Research

NASA is working to develop an integrated set of advanced technologies to enable efficient arrival operations in high-density terminal airspace for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. This integrated arrival solution is being validated and verified in laboratories and transitioned to a field prototype for an operational demonstration at a major U.S. airport. Within NASA, this is a collaborative effort between Ames and Langley Research Centers involving a multi-year iterative experimentation process. Designing and analyzing a series of sequential batch computer simulations and human-in-the-loop experiments across multiple facilities and simulation environments involves a number of statistical challenges. Experiments conducted in separate laboratories typically have different limitations and constraints, and can take different approaches with respect to the fundamental principles of statistical design of experiments. This often makes it difficult to compare results from multiple experiments and incorporate findings into the next experiment in the series. A statistical engineering approach is being employed within this project to support risk-informed decision making and maximize the knowledge gained within the available resources. This presentation describes a statistical engineering case study from NASA, highlights statistical challenges, and discusses areas where existing statistical methodology is adapted and extended.

Wilson, Sara R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Coherent Lidar Design and Performance Verification

This final report summarizes the investigative results from the 3 complete years of funding and corresponding publications are listed. The first year saw the verification of beam alignment for coherent Doppler lidar in space by using the surface return. The second year saw the analysis and computerized simulation of using heterodyne efficiency as an absolute measure of performance of coherent Doppler lidar. A new method was proposed to determine the estimation error for Doppler lidar wind measurements without the need for an independent wind measurement. Coherent Doppler lidar signal covariance, including wind shear and turbulence, was derived and calculated for typical atmospheric conditions. The effects of wind turbulence defined by Kolmogorov spatial statistics were investigated theoretically and with simulations. The third year saw the performance of coherent Doppler lidar in the weak signal regime determined by computer simulations using the best velocity estimators. Improved algorithms for extracting the performance of velocity estimators with wind turbulence included were also produced.

Frehlich, Rod↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative methods and modeling to assess COVID–19–interrupted in vivo pharmacokinetic bioequivalence studies with two reference batches

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented unprecedented challenges to the generic drug development, including interruptions in bioequivalence (BE) studies. Per guidance published by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the COVID-19 public health emergency, any protocol changes or alternative statistical analysis plan for COVID-19-interrupted BE study should be accompanied with adequate justifications and not lead to biased equivalence determination. In this study, we used a modeling and simulation approach to assess the potential impact of study outcomes when two different batches of a Reference Standard (RS) were to be used in an in vivo pharmacokinetic BE study due to the RS expiration during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulations were performed with hypothetical drugs under two scenarios: (1) uninterrupted study using a single batch of an RS, and (2) interrupted study using two batches of an RS. The acceptability of BE outcomes was evaluated by comparing the results obtained from interrupted studies with those from uninterrupted studies. The simulation results demonstrated that using a conventional statistical approach to evaluate BE for COVID-19-interrupted studies may be acceptable based on the pooled data from two batches. An alternative statistical method which includes a “batch” effect to the mixed effects model may be used when a significant “batch” effect was found in interrupted four-way crossover studies. However, such alternative method is not applicable for interrupted two-way crossover studies. Overall, the simulated scenarios are only for demonstration purpose, the acceptability of BE outcomes for the COVID19-interrupted studies could be case-specific.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Micro-mechanical investigation of the thermo-mechanical properties of micro-architectured tungsten coatings

The thermo-mechanical response of micro-architectured tungsten coatings is characterized in the temperature range of 293 to 673 K using both in situ micro-compression experiments inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM) as well as image-based crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations. The experiments were conducted on micropillar-like specimens that were focus ion beam milled into the coatings, while the simulations were conducted on columnar-grained micropillar simulation cells constructed based on the statistics of the coating’s microstructure. The experimental results show that the stress–strain response and deformation mode exhibit a strong temperature-dependence. At room temperature, catastrophic failure is observed shortly after yield and is manifested in the form of intergranular fracture and buckling of individual columnar grains. With increasing temperature, this catastrophic failure is gradually suppressed and the material exhibits a steadier strain hardening response at 693 K. The CPFEM simulations are also shown to be in good agreement with the experimental results, and these simulations indicate that the material response is strongly influenced by the local crystallographic anisotropy and microstructure inhomogeneity. Furthermore, the simulations capture the underlying mechanisms that control the temperature-dependent transition in deformation mode. The current results highlight that the micro-architectured microstructure offers a great combination of excellent mechanical strength and structural integrity at elevated temperatures, which is of importance for high temperature applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Lattice Boltzmann Method for Turbomachinery Simulations

Lattice Boltzmann (LB) Method is a relatively new method for flow simulations. The start point of LB method is statistic mechanics and Boltzmann equation. The LB method tries to set up its model at molecular scale and simulate the flow at macroscopic scale. LBM has been applied to mostly incompressible flows and simple geometry.

Hsu, A. T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A large-scale comparison of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) techniques in simulating reservoir releases over the Upper Colorado Region

In recent years, the Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) models have become popular tools in assisting various aspects of reservoir operation. However, the practical uses are still rarely reported. Comparison experiment of many AI&DM models over a large number of reservoir cases is particularly valuable to help reservoir operators first examine the usefulness and transferability of different AI&DM models, and then identify the most stable and reliable AI&DM model in assist of various decision-making processes. In this study, a total of 12 AI&DM models with different parameterizations and simulation scenarios are comprehensively tested out and compared in simulating the controlled reservoir outflows of 33 reservoir cases over the Upper Colorado Region, United States. Results show that the Random Forecast and the Long-Short-Term-Memory model could consistently derive the best statistical performance than other models under the baseline simulation scenario. The employed AI&DM models could obtain satisfactory statistical interquartile ranges (25–75%) between [0.6–0.9], [0.3–0.8], and [0.2–0.8], for CORR, NSE, and KGE measurements, respectively, and [1.5–6.5], [–15 to 20], and [0.5–8.5] for the normalized RMSE, PBIAS and RSR measurements, respectively. Results also show Multi-Layer Perceptron model and Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree Algorithm produced more stable and superior performance than other models under more complex input scenarios. We also found that the performance of different AI&DM models are closely relevant to the reservoir elevations, sizes, and functionalities. Discussions were made about the sensitivity of AI&DM models’ parameterizations and the key advantages of AI&DM models over the rule-based reservoir models. We further identify that the main advantage of AI&DM models is the flexibility in designing input structures, whereas the rule-based simulation model is rather limited. Future studies were suggested regarding the best way reservoir operators and researchers could use, select, and apply different AI&DM models in simulating reservoir releases under different natural and modeling environments. Finally, this comparison study also serves as a reference and a piece of groundwork for further promoting the practical uses of AI&DM models in assisting reservoir operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved quality metrics for association and reproducibility in chromatin accessibility data using mutual information

Correlation metrics are widely utilized in genomics analysis and often implemented with little regard to assumptions of normality, homoscedasticity, and independence of values. This is especially true when comparing values between replicated sequencing experiments that probe chromatin accessibility, such as assays for transposase-accessible chromatin via sequencing (ATAC-seq). Such data can possess several regions across the human genome with little to no sequencing depth and are thus non-normal with a large portion of zero values. Despite distributed use in the epigenomics field, few studies have evaluated and benchmarked how correlation and association statistics behave across ATAC-seq experiments with known differences or the effects of removing specific outliers from the data. Here, we developed a computational simulation of ATAC-seq data to elucidate the behavior of correlation statistics and to compare their accuracy under set conditions of reproducibility. Using these simulations, we monitored the behavior of several correlation statistics, including the Pearson’s R and Spearman’s ρ coefficients as well as Kendall’s τ and Top–Down correlation. We also test the behavior of association measures, including the coefficient of determination R 2 , Kendall’s W, and normalized mutual information. Our experiments reveal an insensitivity of most statistics, including Spear man’s ρ, Kendall’s τ, and Kendall’s W, to increasing differences between simulated ATAC-seq replicates. The removal of co-zeros (regions lacking mapped sequenced reads) between simulated experiments greatly improves the estimates of correlation and association. After removing co-zeros, the R 2 coefficient and normalized mutual information display the best performance, having a closer one-to-one relationship with the known portion of shared, enhanced loci between simulated replicates. When comparing values between experimental ATAC-seq data using a random forest model, mutual information best predicts ATAC-seq replicate relationships. Collectively, this study demonstrates how measures of correlation and association can behave in epigenomics experiments. We provide improved strategies for quantifying relationships in these increasingly prevalent and important chromatin accessibility assays.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effective Resistivity in Relativistic Collisionless Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection can power spectacular high-energy astrophysical phenomena by producing nonthermal energy distributions in highly magnetized regions around compact objects. By means of two-dimensional fully kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, we investigate relativistic collisionless plasmoid-mediated reconnection in magnetically dominated pair plasmas with and without a guide field. In X-points, where diverging flows result in a nondiagonal thermal pressure tensor, a finite residence time for particles gives rise to a localized collisionless effective resistivity. Here, for the first time for relativistic reconnection in a fully developed plasmoid chain, we identify the mechanisms driving the nonideal electric field using a full Ohm law by means of a statistical analysis based on our PIC simulations. We show that the nonideal electric field is predominantly driven by gradients of nongyrotropic thermal pressures. We propose a kinetic physics motivated nonuniform effective resistivity model that is negligible on global scales and becomes significant only locally in X-points. It captures the properties of collisionless reconnection with the aim of mimicking its essentials in nonideal magnetohydrodynamic descriptions. This effective resistivity model provides a viable opportunity to design physically grounded global models for reconnection-powered high-energy emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular dynamics simulation of metallic Al–Ce liquids using a neural network machine learning interatomic potential

Al-rich Al-Ce alloys have the possibility of replacing heavier steel and cast-irons for use in high-temperature applications. Knowledge about the structures and properties of Al-Ce alloys at liquid state is vital for optimizing the manufacture process to produce desired allows. However, reliable molecular dynamics simulation of Al-Ce alloy systems remains a great challenge due to the lack of accurate Al-Ce interatomic potential. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) deep machine learning (ML) method is used to develop a reliable interatomic potential for Al-Ce alloy. Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation data on Al-Ce liquid with small unit cell (~200 atoms) and on the known Al-Ce crystalline compounds are collected to train the interatomic potential using ANN-ML. The obtained ANN-ML model reproduces well the energies, forces, and atomic structure of Al 90 Ce 10 liquid and crystalline phases of Al-Ce compounds in comparison with ab initio results. The developed ANN-ML potential is applied in molecular dynamics simulations to study the structures and properties of metallic Al 90 Ce 10 liquid, which would provide useful insight for guiding experimental process to produce desired Al-Ce allows.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-observation discrepancies in Arctic moisture intrusions: causes and pathways for improved simulation

Arctic moisture intrusions (MIs), narrow filaments of strong moisture transport, are key drivers of poleward moisture flux and Arctic weather extremes, yet their representation in climate models is poorly understood. Using a new Arctic MI detection algorithm, we document persistent biases across three CMIP generations (CMIP3–CMIP6): models overestimate MI occurrence over the Pacific sector and underestimate it over the Atlantic sector. These errors stem from misrepresented midlatitude westerly jets, with an equatorward North Atlantic jet associated with too few Atlantic MIs, and a poleward, weakened North Pacific jet linked to too many Pacific MIs. Experiments that correct sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration biases and increase atmospheric resolution improve jet structure and MI statistics, while a cloud-locking simulation indicates that better high-frequency cloud–radiation–circulation interactions can yield further gains. Our results clarify pathways to reducing long-standing MI and jet biases, providing guidance for improving simulations of Arctic and midlatitude climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Three velocity component, nonhomogeneous atmospheric boundary layer turbulence modeling

The vertical nonhomogeneous character of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer results in a non-stationary turbulence process relative to an aircraft during takeoff and landing despite the fact that the turbulence statistics can be horizontally homogeneous. The simulation of the three components of the turbulent winds which include the nonstationary aspect of atmospheric turbulence is the subject of this paper. A procedure is developed and demonstrated to generate the three components of a turbulence ramdom process field, u sub i(x,z) where x and z denote horizontal and vertical coordinates and u sub i, i = 1,2,3 are the three orthogonal components of the turbulent random field. This field satisfies any desired one point auto spectra as well as two point statistics (interlevel correlations). By use of Taylors frozen eddy hypothesis we can transform the turbulent random field into the time domain and obtain the random turbulence along an aircraft trajectory.

Perlmutter, M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale spatial analysis of fracture arrangement and pattern reconstruction using Ripley's K-function

This work presents novel multiscale spatial data analytics using Ripley's K-function, as a measure of spatial interaction, to study one-dimensional arrangement of fractures. Fracture spatial arrangements are classified into clustered, anticlustered, or indistinguishable from random by testing statistical significance of the calculated Ripley's K-function. Characterizations of fracture arrangements are performed as a function of length scale and position. Analysis of the K-function along the study interval identifies where fracture clustering and anticlustering occur. Here, a simulation technique is also introduced here to statistically reconstruct spatial arrangements and to generate fracture realizations that are spatially similar to the fractures observed in the field. With this simulation technique, one can also fill spatial gaps in fracture measurements where data are absent, unreliable, or unused. Synthetic as well as field-measured 1D fracture datasets are used for testing and demonstration. Methods introduced in this work can be readily applied to fracture datasets observed in outcrops, borehole image logs, and cores.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗