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The neutron electric dipole moment experiment at the Spallation Neutron Source

Novel experimental techniques are required to make the next big leap in neutron electric dipole moment experimental sensitivity, both in terms of statistics and systematic error control. The nEDM experiment at the Spallation Neutron Source (nEDM@SNS) will implement the scheme of Golub & Lamoreaux [Phys. Rep., 237, 1 (1994)]. The unique properties of combining polarized ultracold neutrons, polarized 3 He, and superfluid 4He will be exploited to provide a sensitivity to ~ 10-28 e · cm. Our cryogenic apparatus will deploy two small (3 L) measurement cells with a high density of ultracold neutrons produced and spin analyzed in situ. The electric field strength, precession time, magnetic shielding, and detected UCN number will all be enhanced compared to previous room temperature Ramsey measurements. Our 3 He co-magnetometer offers unique control of systematic effects, in particular the Bloch-Siegert induced false EDM. Furthermore, there will be two distinct measurement modes: free precession and dressed spin. This will provide an important self-check of our results. Following five years of “critical component demonstration,” our collaboration transitioned to a “large scale integration” phase in 2018. An overview of our measurement techniques, experimental design, and brief updates are described in these proceedings.

Leung, Kent↗

Designing ITER motional Stark effect line shift (MSE-LS) spectrometers

As a part of ITER beam aided diagnostics, the design of Motional Stark Effect (MSE) diagnostic observing the emission from the Balmer-α line is underway. The physics of Stark splitting shows that the Stark manifold is polarization dependent, and the energy splitting results in a line shift proportional to the electric field. Due to the challenges of maintaining the calibration of the plasma facing mirrors in ITER, the conventional MSE polarimetry measurement technique is replaced with a spectral approach that is deemed more favorable in the ITER environment. The MSE line shift (LS) diagnostic is designed to quantify the Lorentz electric field magnitude by measuring the Stark manifold using visible spectroscopy. In the presence of large magnetic fields and high energy heating beams of 1 MeV, the expected Stark splitting is much larger than in typical devices. The MSE-LS design has unique challenges requiring careful consideration and modeling of its viewing geometry and photon budget. The MSE-LS approach on ITER is promising but has stringent demands on the allowable errors for the statistical and systematic fitting uncertainties. In this study, a full system model and numerical simulations of data for each sightline are completed. For a range of optical transmission fractions, photon noise analysis is conducted to determine the statistical uncertainties. This provides guidance on the spectrometer throughput, dispersion at the detector, optics, and other design choices. A conceptual design of a high throughput spectrometer with a volume phase transmission grating is presented.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Systematic uncertainties associated with the cosmological analysis of the first Pan-STARRS1 type Ia supernova sample

We probe the systematic uncertainties from the 113 Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) sample along with 197 SN Ia from a combination of low-redshift surveys. The companion paper by Rest et al. describes the photometric measurements and cosmological inferences from the PS1 sample. The largest systematic uncertainty stems from the photometric calibration of the PS1 and low-z samples. We increase the sample of observed Calspec standards from 7 to 10 used to define the PS1 calibration system. The PS1 and SDSS-II calibration systems are compared and discrepancies up to ∼0.02 mag are recovered. We find uncertainties in the proper way to treat intrinsic colors and reddening produce differences in the recovered value of w up to 3%. We estimate masses of host galaxies of PS1 supernovae and detect an insignificant difference in distance residuals of the full sample of 0.037 ± 0.031 mag for host galaxies with high and low masses. Assuming flatness and including systematic uncertainties in our analysis of only SNe measurements, we find w =−1.120{sub −0.206}{sup +0.360}(Stat){sub −0.291}{sup +0.269}(Sys). With additional constraints from Baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background (CMB) (Planck) and H {sub 0} measurements, we find w=−1.166{sub −0.069}{sup +0.072} and Ω{sub m}=0.280{sub −0.012}{sup +0.013} (statistical and systematic errors added in quadrature). The significance of the inconsistency with w = –1 depends on whether we use Planck or Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe measurements of the CMB: w{sub BAO+H0+SN+WMAP}=−1.124{sub −0.065}{sup +0.083}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A 3% DETERMINATION OF H {sub 0} AT INTERMEDIATE REDSHIFTS

Recent determinations of the Hubble constant, H {sub 0}, at extremely low and very high redshifts based on the cosmic distance ladder (grounded with trigonometric parallaxes) and a cosmological model (applied to Planck 2013 data), respectively, are revealing an intriguing discrepancy (nearly 9% or 2.4σ) that is challenging astronomers and theoretical cosmologists. In order to shed some light on this problem, here we discuss a new determination of H {sub 0} at intermediate redshifts (z ∼ 1), using the following four cosmic probes: (1) measurements of the angular diameter distances for galaxy clusters based on the combination of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and X-ray data (0.14 ≤ z ≤ 0.89); (2) the inferred ages of old high redshift galaxies (0.62 ≤ z ≤ 1.70); (3) measurements of the Hubble parameter H(z) (0.1 ≤ z ≤ 1.8); and (4) the baryon acoustic oscillation signature (z = 0.35). In our analysis, assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology and considering statistical plus systematic errors, we obtain H{sub 0}=74.1{sub −2.2}{sup +2.2} km s{sup –1} Mpc{sup –1} (1σ) which is a 3% determination of the Hubble constant at intermediate redshifts. We stress that each individual test adopted here has error bars larger than the ones appearing in the calibration of the extragalactic distance ladder. However, the remarkable complementarity among the four tests works efficiently in greatly reducing the possible degeneracy on the space parameter (Ω {sub m}, h), ultimately providing a value of H {sub 0} that is in excellent agreement with the determination using recessional velocities and distances to nearby objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measuring cosmological distances using cluster edges as a standard ruler

ABSTRACT The line-of-sight velocity dispersion profile of galaxy clusters exhibits a ‘kink’ corresponding to the spatial extent of orbiting galaxies. Because the spatial extent of a cluster is correlated with the amplitude of the velocity dispersion profile, we can utilize this feature as a gravity-calibrated standard ruler. Specifically, the amplitude of the velocity dispersion data allows us to infer the physical cluster size. Consequently, observations of the angular scale of the ‘kink’ in the profile can be translated into a distance measurement to the cluster. Assuming the relation between cluster radius and cluster velocity dispersion can be calibrated from simulations, we forecast that with existing data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey we will be able to measure the Hubble constant with 3.0 per cent precision. Implementing our method with data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will result in a 1.3 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant. Adding cosmological supernova data improves the uncertainty of the DESI measurement to 0.7 per cent. While these error estimates are statistical only, they provide strong motivation for pursuing the necessary simulation program required to characterize and calibrate the systematic uncertainties impacting our proposed measurement. Whether or not our proposed measurement can in fact result in competitive H0 constraints will depend on what the eventual systematics floor for this method is.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Star/galaxy separation at faint magnitudes: application to a simulated Dark Energy Survey

We address the problem of separating stars from galaxies in future large photometric surveys. We focus our analysis on simulations of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). In the first part of the paper, we derive the science requirements on star/galaxy separation, for measurement of the cosmological parameters with the gravitational weak lensing and large-scale structure probes. These requirements are dictated by the need to control both the statistical and systematic errors on the cosmological parameters, and by point spread function calibration. We formulate the requirements in terms of the completeness and purity provided by a given star/galaxy classifier. In order to achieve these requirements at faint magnitudes, we propose a new method for star/galaxy separation in the second part of the paper. We first use principal component analysis to outline the correlations between the objects parameters and extract from it the most relevant information. We then use the reduced set of parameters as input to an Artificial Neural Network. This multiparameter approach improves upon purely morphometric classifiers (such as the classifier implemented in SExtractor), especially at faint magnitudes: it increases the purity by up to 20 per cent for stars and by up to 12 per cent for galaxies, at i-magnitude fainter than 23.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validation of the DESI DR2 measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) galaxy and quasar clustering data represents a significant expansion of data from Data Release 1 (DR1), providing improved statistical precision in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) constraints across multiple tracers, including bright galaxies, luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and quasars. In this paper, we validate the BAO analysis of DR2. We present the results of robustness tests on the blinded DR2 data and, after unblinding, consistency checks on the unblinded DR2 data. All results are compared with those obtained from a suite of mock catalogs that replicate the selection and clustering properties of the DR2 sample. We confirm the consistency of DR2 BAO measurements with DR1 while achieving a reduction in statistical uncertainties due to the increased survey volume and completeness. The combined BAO precision, including both statistical and systematic errors, improves from ∼0.52% in DR1 to 0.30% in DR2—a factor of 1.7 gain. We assess the impact of analysis choices, including different data vectors (correlation function vs power spectrum), modeling approaches and systematics treatments, and an assumption of the Gaussian likelihood, finding that our BAO constraints are stable across these variations and assumptions with a few minor refinements to the baseline setup of the DR1 BAO analysis. We summarize a series of pre-unblinding tests that confirmed the readiness of our analysis pipeline, the final systematic errors, and the DR2 BAO analysis baseline. The successful completion of these tests led to the unblinding of the DR2 BAO measurements, ultimately leading to the DESI DR2 cosmological analysis, with their implications for the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy presented in the DESI key paper (companion paper).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Nucleon mass with highly improved staggered quarks

We present the first computation in a program of lattice-QCD baryon physics using staggered fermions for sea and valence quarks. For this initial study, we present a calculation of the nucleon mass, obtaining 964 ±16 MeV with all sources of statistical and systematic errors controlled and accounted for. This result is the most precise determination to date of the nucleon mass from first principles. We use the highly improved staggered quark action, which is computationally efficient. Three gluon ensembles are employed, which have approximate lattice spacings 𝑎 ≈ 0.09, 0.12, and 0.15 fm, each with equal-mass 𝑢/𝑑, 𝑠, and 𝑐 quarks in the sea. Further, all ensembles have the light valence and sea 𝑢/𝑑 quarks tuned to reproduce the physical pion mass, avoiding complications from chiral extrapolations. Our work opens a new avenue for precise calculations of baryon properties, which are both feasible and relevant to experiments in particle and nuclear physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Study of e + e - → η Φ via initial state radiation at Belle

Using 980 fb -1 of data collected on and around the (n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) resonances with the Belle detector at the KEKB collider, we measure the cross section of e + ⁢e - → η⁢Φ from threshold to 3.95 GeV via initial state radiation. There are clear Φ⁡(1680) and J/ψ signals but no significant Φ⁡(2170) signal in the ηΦ final state. The branching fraction $\mathscr{B}$⁡[J/ψ →η⁢Φ] is measured to be (7.2 ±0.8 ±0.5) ×10 -4 . The resonant parameters of Φ⁡(1680) are determined to be m Φ(1680) = (1696±8±10) MeV/c 2 (statistical and systematic errors, respectively), Γ Φ⁡(1680) =(175±13±16) MeV and, depending on the possible presence of predominantly constructive or destructive interference between Φ⁡(1680) and continuum production, Γ$^{e^+e^-}_{Φ⁡(1680)}$·$\mathscr{B}$⁡[Φ⁡(1680)→ηΦ] and $\mathscr{B}$⁡[Φ(1680)→η⁢Φ] are determined to be (75 ±10 ±11) eV and (25±12±2)% or (207±16±20) eV and (23 ±10 ±2)%, respectively. The upper limit for Γ$^{e^+e^-}_{Φ⁡(2170)}$·$\mathscr{B}$⁡[Φ⁡(2170) → ηΦ] is determined to be either 0.17 or 18.6 eV at the 90% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Proton Isovector Helicity Distribution on the Lattice at Physical Pion Mass

We present a state-of-the-art calculation of the isovector quark helicity Bjorken-x distribution in the proton using lattice-QCD ensembles at the physical pion mass. We compute quasi-distributions at proton momenta P z ϵ {2.2; 2.6; 3.0} GeV on the lattice, and match them systematically to the physical parton distribution using large-momentum effective theory (LaMET).We reach an unprecedented precision through high statistics in simulations, large-momentum proton matrix elements, and control of excited-state contamination. The resulting distribution with combined statistical and systematic errors is in agreement with the latest phenomenological analysis of the spin-dependent experimental data; in particular, Δ$\bar{u}$(x) > Δ$\bar{d}$(x).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Feasibility of RACT for 3D dose measurement and range verification in a water phantom

Purpose: The objective of this study is to establish the feasibility of using radiation-induced acoustics to measure the range and Bragg peak dose from a pulsed proton beam. Simulation studies implementing a prototype scanner design based on computed tomographic methods were performed to investigate the sensitivity to proton range and integral dose. Methods: Derived from thermodynamic wave equation, the pressure signals generated from the dose deposited from a pulsed proton beam with a 1 cm lateral beam width and a range of 16, 20, and 27 cm in water using Monte Carlo methods were simulated. The resulting dosimetric images were reconstructed implementing a 3D filtered backprojection algorithm and the pressure signals acquired from a 71-transducer array with a cylindrical geometry (30 × 40 cm) rotated over 2π about its central axis. Dependencies on the detector bandwidth and proton beam pulse width were performed, after which, different noise levels were added to the detector signals (using 1 μs pulse width and a 0.5 MHz cutoff frequency/hydrophone) to investigate the statistical and systematic errors in the proton range (at 20 cm) and Bragg peak dose (of 1 cGy). Results: The reconstructed radioacoustic computed tomographic image intensity was shown to be linearly correlated to the dose within the Bragg peak. And, based on noise dependent studies, a detector sensitivity of 38 mPa was necessary to determine the proton range to within 1.0 mm (full-width at half-maximum) (systematic error < 150 μm) for a 1 cGy Bragg peak dose, where the integral dose within the Bragg peak was measured to within 2%. For existing hydrophone detector sensitivities, a Bragg peak dose of 1.6 cGy is possible. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that computed tomographic scanner based on ionizing radiation-induced acoustics can be used to verify dose distribution and proton range with centi-Gray sensitivity. Realizing this technology into the clinic has the potential to significantly impact beam commissioning, treatment verification during particle beam therapy and image guided techniques.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Measurement Error and Resolution in Quantitative Stable Isotope Probing: Implications for Experimental Design

Quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP) estimates isotope tracer incorporation into DNA of individual microbes and can link microbial biodiversity and biogeochemistry in complex communities. As with any quantitative estimation technique, qSIP involves measurement error, and a fuller understanding of error, precision, and statistical power benefits qSIP experimental design and data interpretation. We used several qSIP data sets—from soil and seawater microbiomes—to evaluate how variance in isotope incorporation estimates depends on organism abundance and resolution of the density fractionation scheme. We assessed statistical power for replicated qSIP studies, plus sensitivity and specificity for unreplicated designs. As a taxon’s abundance increases, the variance of its weighted mean density declines. Nine fractions appear to be a reasonable trade-off between cost and precision for most qSIP applications. Increasing the number of density fractions beyond that reduces variance, although the magnitude of this benefit declines with additional fractions. Our analysis suggests that, if a taxon has an isotope enrichment of 10 atom% excess, there is a 60% chance that this will be detected as significantly different from zero (with alpha 0.1). With five replicates, isotope enrichment of 5 atom% could be detected with power (0.6) and alpha (0.1). Finally, we illustrate the importance of internal standards, which can help to calibrate per sample conversions of %GC to mean weighted density. These results should benefit researchers designing future SIP experiments and provide a useful reference for metagenomic SIP applications where both financial and computational limitations constrain experimental scope.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Muon loss rates from betatron resonances at the Muon g – 2 Storage Ring at Fermilab

The Muon g–2 Experiment at Fermilab (E989) is directed toward measuring the muon magnetic anomaly, a μ = (g–2)/2, with total statistical and systematic errors of 0.14 ppm. Here, this new measurement will serve as strong probe of effects of as yet undiscovered particles beyond the Standard Model (SM), and perhaps validate or disprove other theoretical models beyond the SM. Of special interest is the reduction of muon losses from the storage ring to achieve the precision needed at the Muon g–2 Experiment.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Testing the Delayed Gamma Capability in MCNP6

The mission of the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office is to quickly and reliably detect unauthorized attempts to import or transport special nuclear material for use against the United States. Developing detection equipment to meet this objective requires accurate simulation of both the detectable signature and detection mechanism. A delayed particle capability was initially added to MCNPX 2.6.A in 2005 to sample the radioactive fission product parents and emit decay particles resulting from the decay chain. To meet the objectives of detection scenario modeling, the capability was designed to sample a particular time for emitting particular multiplicity of a particular energy. Because the sampling process of selecting both time and energy is interdependent, to linearize the time and emission sampling, atom densities are computed at several discrete time steps, and the time-integrated production is computed by multiplying the atom density by the decay constant and time step size to produce a cumulative distribution function for sampling the emission time, energy, and multiplicity. The delayed particle capability was initially given a time-bin structure to help reasonably reproduce, from a qualitative sense, a fission benchmark by Beddingfield, which examined the delayed gamma emission. This original benchmark was only qualitative and did not contain the magnitudes of the actual measured data but did contain relative graphical representation of the spectra. A better benchmark with measured data was later provided by Hunt, Mozin, Reedy, Selpel, and Tobin at the Idaho Accelerator Center; however, because of the complexity of the benchmark setup, sizable systematic errors were expected in the modeling, and initial results compared to MCNPX 2.7.0 showed errors outside of statistical fluctuation. Presented in this paper is a more simplified approach to benchmarking, utilizing closed form analytic solutions to the granddaughter equations for particular sets of decay systems. We examine five different decay chains (two-stage decay to stable) and show the predictability of the MCNP6 delayed gamma feature. Results do show that while the default delayed gamma calculations available in the MCNP6 1.0 release can give accurate results for some isotopes (e.g., 137 Ba), the percent differences between the closed form analytic solutions and the MCNP6 calculations were often >40% ( 28 Mg, 28 Al, 42 K, 47 Ca, 47 Sc, 60 Co). With the MCNP6 1.1 Beta release, the tenth entry on the DBCN card allows improved calculation within <5% as compared to the closed form analytic solutions for immediate parent emissions and transient equilibrium systems. While the tenth entry on the DBCN card for MCNP6 1.1 gives much better results for transient equilibrium systems and parent emissions in general, it does little to improve daughter emissions of secular equilibrium systems. Finally, hypotheses were presented as to why daughter emissions of secular equilibrium systems might be mispredicted in some cases and not in others.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Lattice QCD Calculation of Nucleon Structure

It is emphasized in the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan that "understanding the structure of hadrons in terms of QCD's quarks and gluons is one of the central goals of modern nuclear physics." Over the last three decades, lattice QCD has developed into a powerful tool for ab initio calculations of strong-interaction physics. Up until now, it is the only theoretical approach to solving QCD with controlled statistical and systematic errors. Since 1985, we have proposed and carried out first-principles calculations of nucleon structure and hadron spectroscopy using lattice QCD which entails both algorithmic development and large-scale computer simulation. We started out by calculating the nucleon form factors -- electromagnetic, axial-vector, πNN, and scalar form factors, the quark spin contribution to the proton spin, the strangeness magnetic moment, the quark orbital angular momentum, the quark momentum fraction, and the quark and glue decomposition of the proton momentum and angular momentum. The first round of calculations were done with Wilson fermions in the `quenched' approximation where the dynamical effects of the quarks in the sea are not taken into account in the Monte Carlo simulation to generate the background gauge configurations. Beginning in 2000, we have started implementing the overlap fermion formulation into the spectroscopy and structure calculations. This is mainly because the overlap fermion honors chiral symmetry as in the continuum. It is going to be more and more important to take the symmetry into account as the simulations move closer to the physical point where the u and d quark masses are as light as a few MeV only. We began with lattices which have quark masses in the sea corresponding to a pion mass at ~ 300 MeV and obtained the strange form factors, charm and strange quark masses, the charmonium spectrum and the D s meson decay constant f D s , the strangeness and charmness, the meson mass decomposition and the strange quark spin from the anomalous Ward identity. Recently, we have started to include multiple lattices with different lattice spacings and different volumes including large lattices at the physical pion mass point. We are getting quite close to being able to calculate the hadron structure at the physical point and to do the continuum and large volume extrapolations, which is our ultimate aim. We have now finished several projects which have included these systematic corrections. They include the leptonic decay width of the ρ, the πN sigma and strange sigma terms, and the strange quark magnetic moment. Over the years, we have also studied hadron spectroscopy with lattice calculations and in phenomenology. These include Roper resonance, pentaquark state, charmonium spectrum, glueballs, scalar mesons a 0 (1450) and σ(600) and other scalar mesons, and the 1 -+ meson. In addition, we have employed the canonical approach to explore the first-order phase transition and the critical point at finite density and finite temperature. We have also discovered a new parton degree of freedom -- the connected sea partons, from the path-integral formulation of the hadronic tensor, which explains the experimentally observed Gottfried sum rule violation. Combining experimental result on the strange parton distribution, the CT10 global fitting results of the total u and d anti-partons and the lattice result of the ratio of the momentum fraction of the strange vs that of u or d in the disconnected insertion, we have shown that the connected sea partons can be isolated. In this final technical report, we shall present a few representative highlights that have been achieved in the project.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

On the use of Graphs for Test Sequence Selection

This report demonstrates that applying graph theory techniques provides a way to obtain sufficient statistics in finding errors when testing complex state machines. It discusses how to define the tests, then demonstrates how to automatically generate test suites that diversify test cases, subject to constraints. If included within a continuous integration approach, these constructs provide an unbiased means to systematically check for errors within the latest controller software release.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

THE STORY OF SUPERNOVA “REFSDAL” TOLD BY MUSE

We present Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) observations in the core of the Hubble Frontier Fields (HFF) galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, where the first magnified and spatially resolved multiple images of supernova (SN) “Refsdal” at redshift 1.489 were detected. Thanks to a Director's Discretionary Time program with the Very Large Telescope and the extraordinary efficiency of MUSE, we measure 117 secure redshifts with just 4.8 hr of total integration time on a single 1 arcmin{sup 2} target pointing. We spectroscopically confirm 68 galaxy cluster members, with redshift values ranging from 0.5272 to 0.5660, and 18 multiple images belonging to seven background, lensed sources distributed in redshifts between 1.240 and 3.703. Starting from the combination of our catalog with those obtained from extensive spectroscopic and photometric campaigns using the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ), we select a sample of 300 (164 spectroscopic and 136 photometric) cluster members, within approximately 500 kpc from the brightest cluster galaxy, and a set of 88 reliable multiple images associated with 10 different background source galaxies and 18 distinct knots in the spiral galaxy hosting SN “Refsdal.” We exploit this valuable information to build six detailed strong-lensing models, the best of which reproduces the observed positions of the multiple images with an rms offset of only 0.″26. We use these models to quantify the statistical and systematic errors on the predicted values of magnification and time delay of the next emerging image of SN “Refsdal.” We find that its peak luminosity should occur between 2016 March and June and should be approximately 20% fainter than the dimmest (S4) of the previously detected images but above the detection limit of the planned HST /WFC3 follow-up. We present our two-dimensional reconstruction of the cluster mass density distribution and of the SN “Refsdal” host galaxy surface brightness distribution. We outline the road map toward even better strong-lensing models with a synergetic MUSE and HST effort.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗