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High Strength Steel-Aluminum Components by Vaporizing Foil Actuator Welding

This project aimed to address the challenge of effectively welding dissimilar materials—high-strength steel and high-strength aluminum for creating lightweight, multi-material automotive components. For automotive companies, reducing weight of a vehicle is critical task regulated by the government to solve the issue of greenhouse gas emissions. Production of lightweight cars and trucks can be achieved by substitution of current all-steel structures with multi-material lightweight structures that include high strength-to-weight-ration materials such as high-strength steels, aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys, titanium alloys, coupled with lightweight designs. This requires dissimilar metal welding, which is challenging for state of the art joining processes such as resistance spot welding. The cycle of melting-cooling-freezing during traditional welding that can easily ruin the designed outstanding properties of the advanced base metals, such as aluminum alloys, making the welded area much weaker than the base metals. To weld two different metals with great difference in melting points, such as aluminum and steel, it’s even more difficult or impossible because of the formation of brittle intermetallic compounds at the welded interface. In this project, a novel welding method, developed at OSU, was selected for validation and development. This novel technology enables welding by impact without melting and proves to be robust to join various dissimilar lightweight metals. Termed as vaporizing foil actuator welding or VFAW, the technology uses a thin aluminum foil that is rapidly vaporized by a high current pulse to produce an explosive-like pressure pulse to drive one metallic piece into another at the high speed required for impact welding. This project entailed development of the early-stage welding technology in terms of (a) the consumables, the welding apparatus and the power sources, (b) coupon scale screening of many material combinations including corrosion studies, (c) computational modeling and design of the welded interface as well as of the multi-material prototype component, and (d) mechanical testing for strength and durability at coupon scale and to a certain extent the prototype scale. The all-steel engine cradle of 2016 Chevrolet Cruze was chosen as the baseline prototype component. The target set for the project was to demonstrate a 20% weight reduction at a cost premium of less than $\$ $5/lb saved without compromising on baseline mechanical properties. At project completion, a 12% lighter prototype component was demonstrated with an estimated cost premium of $\$ $9.8/lb saved. Besides prototype level demonstration of the technology, this project also enabled elevation of the technology’s readiness level to where a hydraulically actuated welding head was developed and made ready for deployment at a research and development facility for Tier 1 automotive supplier.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Renewable Hydrogen to Vehicle (RH2V) – Operation Verification and Risk Mitigation Studies: Original Agreement (Modification 0) (CRADA Final Report)

Toyota has announced plans for commercial fuel cell vehicle deployment in 2015. To fully realize the benefits of fuel cell vehicles (zero emission with no performance loss in terms of vehicle range and capability), hydrogen produced efficiently from renewable sources is necessary. Most of the hydrogen fueling stations today utilize hydrogen reformed from natural gas (produced onsite or delivered). This enables more stations to be deployed cost-effectively within a network. Producing and using cost-effective renewable hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles will enable realization of the full potential. A viable option of green hydrogen that reliably delivers on the full suite of benefits for Toyota fuel cell vehicle drivers is needed. NREL is in a unique position to analyze and optimize renewable hydrogen production scenarios using the Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF), a facility that is specifically designed to evaluate renewable energy integration technologies. As the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) primary national laboratory for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development, NREL has extensive knowledge of photovoltaic systems as well as alternative renewable technologies for efficient and reliable production of green hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗

Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections

Accurate representation and projection of water fluxes are vital, particularly in monsoon regions where seasonal variability and changes significantly impact water resources, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and the economy. This study uses both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to investigate the present-day representation of key water flux components (including precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, and moisture advection) over the Afro-Asian region during the summer monsoon (JJAS). We also examine future changes under two emission scenarios and assess the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes while identifying sources of projection uncertainty. Our results show that both models reasonably capture the present-day characteristics of water flux components, although with noticeable biases. Across most regions, we find that CMIP6 models demonstrate slight improvements over CMIP5 in the representation of these components. In a warmer future, a robust intensification of JJAS precipitation (exceeding 0.25 mm/day) is projected across the Afro-Asian region. This increase is largely driven by the vertical thermodynamic term associated with increasing temperature. We find that model uncertainty is the primary source of uncertainty in water flux projections, accounting for over 50 % of the total variance.

Climate change↗

(U) A General-Purpose Code for Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics with MCNP6 for Fixed-Source Problems

Correlated sampling can be used to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies by taking advantage of the negative covariance term in the sandwich formula. Booth first showed how correlated sampling can be applied with batch statistics using MCNP’s tally fluctuation chart (TFC) to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies in fixed-source problems. Booth presented a problem in which a 1273% uncertainty in a difference was reduced to 8% by accounting for correlations. Researchers He and Su recently studied correlated sampling using the TFC in MCNP version 5. They determined that the code did not print enough digits in the TFC tally means for accurate batch statistics in some cases. After modifying the source code, they concluded that “correlated sampling can yield a standard deviation of about one magnitude smaller than that predicted by the direct, un-correlated simulation when the changes in system response are small (say about 1%), which is equivalent to saving in CPU time by a factor of 100. Such saving [sic] becomes less significant as the change in system response becomes larger.” He and Su provided the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a difference of tallies. In this report, we follow up on their work by providing the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a ratio of tallies and of a difference of two tallies divided by a third tally. We extend these formulas to differences and ratios of ratios. These formulas are applied to reduce the uncertainty associated with calculating a relative sensitivity. He and Su did not investigate the accuracy of their correlated sampling uncertainty estimates. We use their test problems and evaluate the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates by comparing with results obtained from random sampling, and, in simple cases, with theoretical values of the “exact” uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties obtained from batch statistics are accurate as long as at least 100 batches are used. We present a new computer code, COSUBS (COrrelated Sampling Using Batch Statistics), that reads MCNP6 TFCs and applies correlated sampling using batch statistics for the tally combinations that the user specifies. COSUBS is a very general tool that compares all TFCs for a base case and one or two perturbed cases. It computes uncertainties for ratios if given only a base case. This report is organized as follows. The equations to apply batch statistics to the difference of random tallies are reviewed in Sec. II. Section III presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a ratio of random tallies; this is useful for computing relative sensitivities using a one-sided finite difference and the relative sensitivity using the differential operator method. Section IV presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two random tallies divided by a third; this is useful for computing a relative sensitivities using a central difference. Section V presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two ratios with four random tallies. Section VI presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a one-sided finite difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses four random tallies). Section VII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a central difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses six random tallies). Section VIII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a sum of random tallies. Section IX discusses how to apply batch statistics using MCNP6. Section X presents COSUBS, describing its command-line options and logic. Sections XI through XVI present numerical results for various test problems. Section XVII is a summary and conclusions. Appendix A derives the theoretical Monte Carlo tally variance given certain assumptions; these variances are used to verify the batch statistics for some of the problems. Appendix B lists the MCNP6 input for the unperturbed example problem. Appendix C presents modifications made to MCNP6.3 to support this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Berry phase in quantum field theory: Diabolical points and boundary phenomena

We study aspects of Berry phase in gapped many-body quantum systems by means of effective field theory. Once the parameters are promoted to spacetime-dependent background fields, such adiabatic phases are described by Wess-Zumino-Witten (WZW) and similar terms. In the presence of symmetries, there are also quantized invariants capturing generalized Thouless pumps. Consideration of these terms provides constraints on the phase diagram of many-body systems, implying the existence of gapless points in the phase diagram which are stable for topological reasons. We describe such diabolical points, realized by free fermions and gauge theories in various dimensions, which act as sources of "higher Berry curvature" and are protected by the quantization of the corresponding WZW terms or Thouless pump terms. Here, these are analogous to Weyl nodes in a semimetal band structure. We argue that in the presence of a boundary, there are boundary diabolical points---parameter values where the boundary gap closes---which occupy arcs ending at the bulk diabolical points. Consideration of the topological effective action for the parameters also provides some new checks on conjectured infrared dualities and deconfined quantum criticality in 2+1d.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evidence for autotrophic growth of purple sulfur bacteria using pyrite as electron and sulfur source

ABSTRACT Purple sulfur bacteria (PSB) are capable of anoxygenic photosynthesis via oxidizing reduced sulfur compounds and are considered key drivers of the sulfur cycle in a range of anoxic environments. In this study, we show that Allochromatium vinosum (a PSB species) is capable of autotrophic growth using pyrite as the electron and sulfur source. Comparative growth profile, substrate characterization, and transcriptomic sequencing data provided valuable insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the bacterial utilization of pyrite and autotrophic growth. Specifically, the pyrite-supported cell cultures (“py”’) demonstrated robust but much slower growth rates and distinct patterns from their sodium sulfide-amended positive controls. Up to ~200-fold upregulation of genes encoding various c - and b -type cytochromes was observed in “py,” pointing to the high relevance of these molecules in scavenging and relaying electrons from pyrite to cytoplasmic metabolisms. Conversely, extensive downregulation of genes related to LH and RC complex components indicates that the electron source may have direct control over the bacterial cells’ photosynthetic activity. In terms of sulfur metabolism, genes encoding periplasmic or membrane-bound proteins (e.g., FccAB and SoxYZ) were largely upregulated, whereas those encoding cytoplasmic proteins (e.g., Dsr and Apr groups) are extensively suppressed. Other notable differentially expressed genes are related to flagella/fimbriae/pilin(+), metal efflux(+), ferrienterochelin(−), and [NiFe] hydrogenases(+). Characterization of the biologically reacted pyrite indicates the presence of polymeric sulfur. These results have, for the first time, put the interplay of PSB and transition metal sulfide chemistry under the spotlight, with the potential to advance multiple fields, including metal and sulfur biogeochemistry, bacterial extracellular electron transfer, and artificial photosynthesis. IMPORTANCE Microbial utilization of solid-phase substrates constitutes a critical area of focus in environmental microbiology, offering valuable insights into microbial metabolic processes and adaptability. Recent advancements in this field have profoundly deepened our knowledge of microbial physiology pertinent to these scenarios and spurred innovations in biosynthesis and energy production. Furthermore, research into interactions between microbes and solid-phase substrates has directly linked microbial activities to the surrounding mineralogical environments, thereby enhancing our understanding of the relevant biogeochemical cycles. Our study represents a significant step forward in this field by demonstrating, for the first time, the autotrophic growth of purple sulfur bacteria using insoluble pyrite (FeS2) as both the electron and sulfur source. The presented comparative growth profiles, substrate characterizations, and transcriptomic sequencing data shed light on the relationships between electron donor types, photosynthetic reaction center activities, and potential extracellular electron transfer in these organisms capable of anoxygenic photosynthesis. Furthermore, the findings of our study may provide new insights into early-Earth biogeochemical evolutions, offering valuable constraints for understanding the environmental conditions and microbial processes that shaped our planet’s history.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Processing and Analytics System for Microscopy Data Workflows: The Pycroscopy Ecosystem of Packages

Major advancements in fields as diverse as biology and quantum computing have relied on a multitude of microscopy techniques. Despite the considerable proliferation of these instruments, significant bottlenecks remain in terms of processing, analysis, storage, and retrieval of the acquired datasets. Aside from lack of file standards, individual domain-specific analysis packages are often disjoint from the underlying datasets, and thus keeping track of analysis and processing steps remains tedious for the end-user, hampering reproducibility. Here, in this study, the pycroscopy ecosystem of packages is introduced, an open-source python-based ecosystem underpinned by a common data model. The data model, termed the N-dimensional spectral imaging data format, is realized in pycroscopy's sidpy package. This package is built on top of dask arrays, thus leveraging dask array attributes, but expanding them to accelerate microscopy relevant analysis and visualization. Several examples of the use of the pycroscopy ecosystem to create workflows for data ingestion and analysis of scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and scanning probe microscopy data are shown. Adoption of such standardized routines will be critical to usher in the next generation of autonomous instruments where processing, computation, and meta-data storage will be critical to overall experimental operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Private, public, and bottled drinking water: Shared contaminant-mixture exposures and effects challenge

Background: Humans are primary drivers of environmental–contaminant exposures worldwide, including in drinking-water (DW). In the United States, point-of-use DW (POU–DW) is supplied via private tapwater (TW), public-supply TW, and bottled water (BW). Differences in management, monitoring, and messaging and lack of directly–intercomparable exposure data influence the actual and perceived quality and safety of different DW supplies and directly impact consumer decision–making. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta-analysis (quantitative synthesis) of POU–DW contaminant–mixture exposures and corresponding potential human–health effects of private-TW, public-TW, and BW by aggregating exposure results and harmonizing apical–health–benchmark–weighted and bioactivity–weighted effects predictions across previous studies by this research group. Discussion: Simultaneous exposures to multiple inorganic and organic contaminants of known or suspected human-health concern are common across all three DW supplies, with substantial variability observed in each and no systematic difference in predicted cumulative risk between supplies. Differences in contaminant or contaminant–class exposures, with important implications for DW–quality improvements, were observed and attributed to corresponding differences in regulation and compliance monitoring. Conclusion: The results indicate that human-health risks from contaminant exposures are common to and comparable in all three DW–supplies, including BW. Importantly, this study’s target analytical coverage, which exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the breadth of contaminant mixtures in the environment and potentially present in DW. Thus, the results emphasize the need for improved understanding of the adverse human-health implications of long-term exposures to low–level inorganic–/organic–contaminant mixtures across all three distribution pipelines and do not support commercial messaging of BW as a systematically safer alternative to public-TW. Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking–water treatment is necessary to reduce risks associated with long-term DW–contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations, and to reduce environmental waste and plastics contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploration of the polarization angle variability of the Crab Nebula with POLARBEAR and its application to the search for axionlike particles

The Crab Nebula, also known as Tau A, is a polarized astronomical source at millimeter wavelengths. It has been used as a stable light source for polarization angle calibration in millimeter-wave astronomy. However, it is known that its intensity and polarization vary as a function of time at a variety of wavelengths. Thus, it is of interest to verify the stability of the millimeter-wave polarization. If detected, polarization variability may be used to better understand the dynamics of Tau A, and for understanding the validity of Tau A as a calibrator. One intriguing application of such observation is to use it for the search of axionlike particles (ALPs). Ultralight ALPs couple to photons through a Chern-Simons term, and induce a temporal oscillation in the polarization angle of linearly polarized sources. After assessing a number of systematic errors and testing for internal consistency, we evaluate the variability of the polarization angle of the Crab Nebula using 2015 and 2016 observations with the 150 GHz P instrument. We place a median 95% upper bound of polarization oscillation amplitude A < 0.06 5 ° over the oscillation frequencies from 0.75 year − 1 to 0.66 hour − 1 . Assuming that no sources other than ALP are causing Tau A’s polarization angle variation, that the ALP constitutes all the dark matter, and that the ALP field is a stochastic Gaussian field, this bound translates into a median 95% upper bound of ALP-photon coupling g a γ γ < 2.16 × 10 − 12 GeV − 1 × ( m a / 10 − 21 eV ) in the mass range from 9.9 × 10 − 23 eV to 7.7 × 10 − 19 eV . This demonstrates that this type of analysis using bright polarized sources is as competitive as those using the polarization of cosmic microwave background in constraining ALPs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, Shunsuke (ORCID:0000000204007555)↗

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

(U) Using the MCNP6 Perturbation Capability for Source Nuclide Density Sensitivities

The Taylor series (differential operator) perturbation method, as implemented in the PERT capability in MCNP6 (Ref. 1), can be used for first- and second-order sensitivity analyses in fixed-source problems. Unfortunately, the PERT capability does not yet work with point-detector (F5) or pulse-height (F8) tallies. Also, the second-order Taylor series term lacks the cross terms that would allow the calculation of mixed sensitivities. Finally, the PERT capability does not compute any sensitivities involving the source in a fixed-source problem. When neutrons or gamma rays are emitted due to radioactive decay, the source rate density depends intrinsically on the nuclide densities in the source material. When the PERT capability in MCNP6 is used to compute sensitivities of a response to nuclide and material densities, those sensitivities do not include the effect of the source.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian optimization to design a novel x-ray shaping device

In radiation therapy, x-ray dose must be precisely sculpted to the tumor, while simultaneously avoiding surrounding organs at risk. This requires modulation of x-ray intensity in space and/or time. Typically, this is achieved using a multi leaf collimator (MLC) - a complex mechatronic device comprising over one hundred individually powered tungsten ‘leaves’ that move in or out of the radiation field as required. Here, an all-electronic x-ray collimation concept with no moving parts is presented, termed “SPHINX”: Scanning Pencil-beam High-speed Intensity-modulated X-ray source. SPHINX utilizes a spatially distributed bremsstrahlung target and collimator array in conjunction with magnetic scanning of a high energy electron beam to generate a plurality of small x-ray “beamlets.” A simulation framework was developed in Topas Monte Carlo incorporating a phase space electron source, transport through user defined magnetic fields, bremsstrahlung x-ray production, transport through a SPHINX collimator, and dose in water. This framework was completely parametric, meaning a simulation could be built and run for any supplied geometric parameters. This functionality was coupled with Bayesian optimization to find the best parameter set based on an objective function which included terms to maximize dose rate for a user defined beamlet width while constraining inter-channel cross talk and electron contamination. Designs for beamlet widths of 5, 7, and 10 mm 2 were generated. Each optimization was run for 300 iterations and took approximately 40 h on a 24-core computer. For the optimized 7-mm model, a simulation of all beamlets in water was carried out including a linear scanning magnet calibration simulation. Finally, a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism was developed and used to estimate dose rate under various conditions. The optimized 5–, 7–, and 10-mm models had beamlet widths of 5.1 , 7.2 , and 10.1 mm 2 and dose rates of 3574, 6351, and 10 015 Gy/C, respectively. The reduction in dose rate for smaller beamlet widths is a result of both increased collimation and source occlusion. For the simulation of all beamlets in water, the scanning magnet calibration reduced the offset between the collimator channels and beam centroids from 2.9 ±1.9 mm to 0.01 ±0.03 mm. A slight reduction in dose rate of approximately 2% per degree of scanning angle was observed. Based on a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism, SPHINX in conjunction with next-generation linear accelerators has the potential to achieve substantially higher dose rates than conventional MLC-based delivery, with delivery of an intensity modulated 100 x 100 mm 2 field achievable in 0.9 to 10.6 s depending on the beamlet widths used. Bayesian optimization was coupled with Monte Carlo modeling to generate SPHINX geometries for various beamlet widths. A complete Monte Carlo simulation for one of these designs was developed, including electron beam transport of all beamlets through scanning magnets, x-ray production and collimation, and dose in water. These results demonstrate that SPHINX is a promising candidate for sculpting radiation dose with no moving parts, and has the potential to vastly improve both the speed and robustness of radiotherapy delivery. A multi-beam SPHINX system may be a candidate for delivering magavoltage FLASH RT in humans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - II: Numerical results

This paper is the second part of a two-part paper that documents the numerical results for the partial derivatives model presented in part I. In this paper, we derive the error bounds for the analytical point-wise error expression and verify our bounds with numerical experiments. The point-wise error expressions make available, and bound, the sources that contribute to the total error of the interpolated cross section in terms of the Lagrange interpolation errors and the model form error. MPACT is used to generate two-group homogenized cross sections for Westinghouse's AP1000 Region 4 lattice to evaluate the accuracy of the bounds. Error bounds calculated over a grid are compared to numerical data for uni-variate and multi-variate interpolation. The point-wise error bounds of a typical case matrix - two branches in each state variable - are displayed for bi-variate interpolation in the state variables: moderator density, fuel temperature, and boron concentration. The error bounds are shown to be highly accurate compared to numerical results, and in accordance with the underlying physics. We then discuss and show how the sources of error contribute to the total error, and consider the improvement of each error source. Finally, we mention future work such as propagating our cross section error bounds through a reactivity calculation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Coupled hydro-thermal flow and radionuclide transport driven by spatial variation of heat-generating radioactive wastes in shale formations

Deep geologic disposal of multiple nuclear waste packages with various heat sources can induce nonuniform hydro-thermal behaviors in the near-field of the repository, consequently influencing the long-term radionuclide transport in the far-field once waste form breach initiates. Here, this study looks into three cases with variation in the spatial order of six groups of heat sources (10th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of heat outputs generated from 1,981 as-loaded dual-purpose canisters in the field site) in a shale-hosted repository with respect to the uni-directional groundwater flow (from west to east): (1) cooler waste packages from west to east, (2) hotter waste packages from west to east, and (3) hottest waste packages in the middle of the repository. Our field-scale PFLOTRAN simulation represents heat-driven multiphysics coupled mechanisms, including multiphase flow, heat transfer, and chemical/radioactive transport, and also, calculates the onset of waste form breach based on temperature-dependent canister vitality. The results from this sensitivity study will quantify the short- (less than 1 × 10 3 years) and long-term (up to 1 × 10 6 years) impacts of sporadic heat pulses from waste package on the spatio-temporal perturbation in hydro-thermal flow quantities and the rate of radionuclide transport in both near- and far-field of the repository system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data from: Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N2O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

The long-term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N2O flux measurements with site-specific Michaelis-Menten kinetics of nitrification-derived N2O, we test the relative importance of nitrification-derived N2O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N2O fluxes was 13-17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27-42% in a low-input cover-cropped annual cropping system, and 52-63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be less than 10% of these values because of low N2O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04 to 8% of NH3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available NH4+ in situ. Most nitrification-derived N2O was produced by ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) rather than archaea (AOA), who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification-derived N2O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification-derived N2O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification-derived N2O (higher Vmax) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N2O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Accuracy Mesh-Free Quadrature for Trimmed Parametric Surfaces and Volumes

This work presents a high-accuracy, mesh-free, generalized Stokes theorem-based numerical quadrature scheme for integrating functions over trimmed parametric surfaces and volumes. The algorithm relies on two fundamental steps: (1) We iteratively reduce the dimensionality of integration using the generalized Stokes theorem to line integrals over trimming curves, and (2) we employ numerical antidifferentiation in the generalized Stokes theorem using high-order quadrature rules. Additionally, the scheme achieves exponential convergence up to trimming curve approximation error and has applications to computation of geometric moments, immersogeometric analysis, conservative field transfer between high-order curvilinear meshes, and initialization of multi-material simulations. We compare the quadrature scheme to commonly-used quadrature schemes in the literature and show that our scheme is much more efficient in terms of number of quadrature points used. We provide an open-source implementation of the scheme in MATLAB as part of QuaHOG, a software package for Quadrature of High-Order Geometries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗