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Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Ulysses at 50 deg south: Constant immersion in the high-speed solar wind

We present speed observations from the Ulysses solar wind plasma experiment through 50 deg south latitude. The pronounced speed modulation arising from solar rotation and the tilt of the heliomagnetic current sheet has nearly disappeared. Ulysses is now observing wind speeds in the 700 to 800 km/s range, with a magnetic polarity indicating an origin in the large south polar coronal hole. The strong compressions, rarefractions, and shock waves previously seen have weakened or disappeared. Occasional coronal mass ejections characterized by low plasma density caused by radial expansion have been observed. The coronal configuration was simple and stable in 1993, indicating that the observed solar wind changes were caused by increasing spacecraft latitude. Trends in prevailing speed with increasing latitude support previous findings. A decrease in peak speed southward of 40 deg latitude may indicate that the fastest solar wind comes from the equatorial extensions of the polar coronal holes.

Phillips, J. L.↗

Coronal mass ejections

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are now recognized as an important component of the large-scale evolution of the solar corona. Some representative observations of CMEs are reviewed with emphasis on more recent results. Recent observations and theory are examined as they relate to the following aspects of CMEs: (1) the role of waves in determining the white-light signature; and (2) the mechanism by which the CME is driven (or launched) into the corona.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

Solar Energetic Particle Variations

In the largest solar energetic-particle (SEP) events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In fact, the highest proton intensities directly measured near Earth at energies up to approximately 1 GeV occur at the time of passage of shocks, which arrive about a day after the CMEs leave the Sun. CME-driven shocks expanding across magnetic fields can fill over half of the heliosphere with SEPs. Proton-generated Alfven waves trap particles near the shock for efficient acceleration but also throttle the intensities at Earth to the streaming limit early in the events. At high energies, particles begin to leak from the shock and the spectrum rolls downward to form an energy-spectral 'knee' that can vary in energy from approximately 1 MeV to approximately 1 GeV in different events. All of these factors affect the radiation dose as a function of depth and latitude in the Earth's atmosphere and the risk to astronauts and equipment in space. SEP ionization of the polar atmosphere produces nitrates that precipitate to become trapped in the polar ice. Observations of nitrate deposits in ice cores reveal individual large SEP events and extend back approximately 400 years. Unlike sunspots, SEP events follow the approximately 80-100-year Gleissberg cycle rather faithfully and are now at a minimum in that cycle. The largest SEP event in the last 400 years appears to be related to the flare observed by Carrington in 1859, but the probability of SEP events with such large fluences falls off sharply because of the streaming limit.

Reames, D. V.↗

Comparison Between Path Lengths Traveled by Solar Electrons and Ions in Ground-Level Enhancement Events

We have examined the Wind/3DP/SST electron and Wind/EPACT/LEMT ion data to investigate the path length difference between solar electrons and ions in the ground-level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23. Assuming that the onset time of metric type II or decameter-hectometric (DH) type III radio bursts is the solar release time of non-relativistic electrons, we have found that within an error range of plus or minus 10% the deduced path length of low-energy (approximately 27 keV) electrons from their release site near the Sun to the 1 AU observer is consistent with the ion path length deduced by Reames from the onset time analysis. In addition, the solar longitude distribution and IMF topology of the GLE events examined are in favor of the coronal mass ejection-driven shock acceleration origin of observed non-relativistic electrons.We have also found an increase of electron path lengths with increasing electron energies. The increasing rate of path lengths is correlated with the pitch angle distribution (PAD) of peak electron intensities locally measured, with a higher rate corresponding to a broader PAD. The correlation indicates that the path length enhancement is due to the interplanetary scattering experienced by first arriving electrons. The observed path length consistency implies that the maximum stable time of magnetic flux tubes, along which particles transport, could reach 4.8 hr.

electrons↗

Alternating Twist Along an Erupting Prominence

Triangulation measurements using observations from the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft, combined with observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), are used to characterize the behavior of a prominence involved in two successive coronal mass ejections 6-7 December 2010. The STEREO separation at the time was 171.6 degrees, which was functionally equivalent to a separation of 8.4 degrees, and thus very favorable for feature co-identification above the limb. The first eruption at approximately 14:16 UT (Universal Time) on 6 December of the middle branch of the prominence starts off a series of magnetic reconfigurations in the right branch, which itself erupts at approximately 2:06 UT the next day, about 12 hours after the first eruption. The cool prominence material seen at 304 angstroms drains back down to the surface, but a flux-rope-like magnetic structure is seen to erupt in both 195 angstroms by the STEREO/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI), and in white light by the STEREO/COR1 (Coronagraph 1) inner coronagraph. In between the two eruptions, two different signs of helicity are seen in the measured twist of the right branch. This is interpreted to be caused by the overall prominence channel being composed of different segments with alternating helicity signs. The erupting parts on 6 and 7 December both show positive twist, but negative twist is seen in between these positive sections. Negative twist is consistent with the dextral chirality signs seen in the He II line at 304 angstroms prior to both eruptions. However, during the period between the eruptions, a region of positive twist grows and replaces the region of negative twist, and finally erupts. We interpret these observations in the light of models that predict that helicity cancellation can be an important factor in the triggering of flares and coronal mass ejections.

Prominences↗

EIT And SXT Observations of a Quiet-Region Filament Ejection: First Eruption, Then Reconnection

We observe a slow-onset quiet-region filament eruption with the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh. This event occurred on 1999 April 18 and was likely the origin of a coronal mass ejection detected by SOHO at 08:30 UT on that day. In the EIT observation, one-half of the filament shows two stages of evolution: stage 1 is a slow, roughly constant upward movement at approximately 1 km/s lasting approximately 0.5 hr, and stage 2 is a rapid upward eruption at approximately 16 km/s occurring just before the filament disappears into interplanetary space. The other half of the filament shows little motion along the line of sight during the time of stage 1 but erupts along with the rest of the filament during stage 2. There is no obvious emission from the filament in the SXT observation until stage 2; at that time, an arcade of EUV and soft X-ray loops forms first at the central location of the filament and then expands outward along the length of the filament channel. A plot of EUV intensity versus time of the central portion of the filament (where the postflare loops initially form) shows a flat profile during stage 1 and a rapid upturn after the start of stage 2. This light curve is delayed from what would be expected if 'tether-cutting' reconnection in the core of the erupting region were responsible for the initiation of the eruption. Rather, these observations suggest that a loss of stability of the magnetic field holding the filament initiates the eruption, with reconnection in the core region occurring only as a by-product.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Obscuration of Flare Emission by an Eruptive Prominence

We report on the eclipsing of microwave flare emission by an eruptive prominence from a neighboring region as observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz. The obscuration of the flare emission appears as a dimming feature in the microwave flare light curve. We use the dimming feature to derive the temperature of the prominence and the distribution of heating along the length of the filament. We find that the prominence is heated to a temperature above the quiet Sun temperature at 17 GHz. The duration of the dimming is the time taken by the eruptive prominence in passing over the flaring region. We also find evidence for the obscuration in EUV images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission.

coronal mass ejections↗

CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

The ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) heliosphere clusters H1 and H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. Solar wind stream interaction regions, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ~27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of coronal mass ejections into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5–10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver et al. (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

Space weather↗

Energetic protons from a disappearing solar filament

A solar energetic (E 50 MeV) particle (SEP) event observed at 1 AU began about 15000 UT on 1981 December 5. This event was associated with a fast coronal mass ejection observed with the Solwind coronagraph on the P78-1 satellite. No metric type 2 or type 4 burst was observed, but a weak interplanetary type 2 burst was observed with the low frequency radio experiment on the International Sun-Earth Explorer-3 satellite. The mass ejection was associated with the eruption of a large solar quiescent filament which lay well away from any active regions. The eruption resulted in an H alpha double ribbon structure which straddled the magnetic inversion line. No impulsive phase was obvious in either the H alpha or the microwave observations. This event indicates that neither a detectable impulsive phase nor a strong or complex magnetic field is necessary for the production of energetic ions.

Kahler, S. W.↗

Bidirectional about 1 MeV/amu ion intervals in 1973-1991 observed by the Goddard Space Flight Center instruments on IMP 8 and ISEE 3/ICE

Bidirectional energetic ion flows (BIFs) in the solar wind at 1AU during 1973-1991 are examined on the basis of about 1 MeV/amu data from the Goddard Space Flight Center instruments on ISEE3/ICE and IMP 8. BIFs are observed more frequently around solar maximum, when they are observed about 12 percent of the time compared with about 5 percent at solar minimum. Intervals with durations greater than 4 hr are observed on average approximately every 3-4 d at solar maximum and every 2 wk at solar minimum, with about 33 percent of these intervals following within 2 d of an interplanetary shock. Various coronal mass ejection signatures and BIFs greater than 1 MeV/amu usually do not coincide exactly, and additional bidirectional ion events are identified.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Electromagnetic waves with frequencies near the local proton gyrofrequency: ISEE-3 1 AU observations

Low Frequency (LF) electromagnetic waves with periods near the local proton gyrofrequency have been detected in interplanetary space by the magnetometer onboard International-Sun-Earth-Explorer-3 (ISEE-3). Transverse peak-to-peak amplitudes as large as delta vector B/absolute value of B approximately 0.4 have been noted with compressional components (Delta absolute value of B/absolute value of B) typically less than or = 0.1. Generally, the waves have even smaller amplitudes, or are not detectable within the solar wind turbulence. The waves are elliptically/linearly polarized and are often, but not always, found to propagate nearly along vector B(sub zero). Both right- and left-hand polarizations in the spacecraft-frame have been detected. The waves are observed during all orientations of the interplanetary magnetic field, with the Parker spiral orientation being the most common case. Because the waves are detected at and near the local proton cyclotron frequency, the generation mechanism must almost certainly be solar wind pickup of freshly created hydrogen ions. Possible sources for the hydrogen are the Earth's atmosphere, coronal mass ejections from the Sun, comets and interstellar neutral atoms. At this time it is not obvious which potential source is the correct one. Statistical tests employing over one year of ISEE-3 data will be done in the near future to eliminate/confirm some of these possibilities.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

The Observational Consequences of Proton-Generated Waves at Shocks

In the largest solar energetic particle (SEP) events, acceleration takes place at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections. Protons streaming away from strong shocks generate Alfven waves that trap particles in the acceleration region, limiting outflowing intensities but increasing the efficiency of acceleration to higher energies. Early in the events, with the shock still near the Sun, intensities at 1 AU are bounded and spectra are flattened at low energies. Elements with different charge-to-mass ratios, Q/A, differentially probe the wave spectra near shocks, producing abundance ratios that vary in space and time. An initial rise in He/H, while Fe/O declines, is a typical symptom of the non-Kolmogorov wave spectra in the largest events. Strong wave generation can cause cross-field scattering near the shock and unusually rapid reduction in anisotropies even far from the shock. At the highest energies, shock spectra steepen to form a "knee." For protons, this spectral knee can vary from approx. 10 MeV to approx. 1 GeV depending on shock conditions for wave growth. In one case, the location of the knee scales approximately as Q/A in the energy/nucleon spectra of other species.

Reames, Donald V.↗

Energy Transport in the Thermosphere During the Solar Storms of April 2002

The dramatic solar storm events of April 2002 deposited a large amount of energy into the Earth's upper atmosphere, substantially altering the thermal structure, the chemical composition, the dynamics, and the radiative environment. We examine the flow of energy within the thermosphere during this storm period from the perspective of infrared radiation transport and heat conduction. Observations from the SABER instrument on the TIMED satellite are coupled with computations based on the ASPEN thermospheric general circulation model to assess the energy flow. The dominant radiative response is associated with dramatically enhanced infrared emission from nitric oxide at 5.3 microns from which a total of approx. 7.7 x 10(exp 23) ergs of energy are radiated during the storm. Energy loss rates due to NO emission exceed 2200 Kelvin per day. In contrast, energy loss from carbon dioxide emission at 15 microns is only approx. 2.3% that of nitric oxide. Atomic oxygen emission at 63 microns is essentially constant during the storm. Energy loss from molecular heat conduction may be as large as 3.8% of the NO emission. These results confirm the "natural thermostat" effect of nitric oxide emission as the primary mechanism by which storm energy is lost from the thermosphere below 210 km.

SOLAR STORMS↗

Deployed Electromagnetic Radiation Deflector Shield Creating a Zone of Minimum Radiation and Magnetic/Plasma Effects for Spacecraft

Spaceflight outside of the Earth's protective magnetic field is dangerous from a cosmic radiation perspective. Inside Earth's magnetic field, where the manned International Space Station (ISS) orbits, the radiation encountered is minimal and almost all is deflected by our planet's magnetic fields. However, outside that protective shield, the Sun's solar wind (high energy radiation, solar energetic particles or SEPs) consisting of protons, electrons, alpha particles and plasmas continuously bombards the spacecraft for the months or years of spaceflight. On occasion the Sun produces a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that vastly increases the energy and volume of this radiation. These particles damage human DNA as well as living tissue and can destroy sensitive electronics. The Deployed Electromagnetic Radiation Deflector Shield (DERDS) provides a magnetic field that will deflect SEPs and CMEs and other harmful solar and cosmic rays away from a manned spacecraft, robotic spacecraft, or manned extra-planetary base stations using an electromagnet that is deployed between the spacecraft/station and the source of radiation and creates a magnetosphere or zone of minimal radiation in which the spacecraft or base station would reside.

Patent↗

Source Regions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Variability in Heavy-Ion Elemental Composition in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are those in which ions are accelerated to their observed energies by interactions with a shock driven by a fast coronal mass-ejection (CME). Previous studies have shown that much of the observed event-to-event variability can be understood in terms of shock speed and evolution in the shock-normal angle. But an equally important factor, particularly for the elemental composition, is the origin of the suprathermal seed particles upon which the shock acts. To tackle this issue, we (1) use observed solar-wind speed, magnetograms, and the PFSS model to map the Sun-L1 interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line back to its source region on the Sun at the time of the SEP observations; and (2) then look for correlation between SEP composition (as measured by Wind and ACE at approx. 2-30 MeV/nucleon) and characteristics of the identified IMF-source regions. The study is based on 24 SEP events, identified as a statistically-significant increase in approx. 20 MeV protons and occurring in 1998 and 2003-2006, when the rate of newly-emergent solar magnetic flux and CMEs was lower than in solar-maximum years and the field-line tracing is therefore more likely to be successful. We find that the gradual SEP Fe/O is correlated with the field strength at the IMF-source, with the largest enhancements occurring when the footpoint field is strong, due to the nearby presence of an active region. In these cases, other elemental ratios show a strong charge-to-mass (q/M) ordering, at least on average, similar to that found in impulsive events. These results lead us to suggest that magnetic reconnection in footpoint regions near active regions bias the heavy-ion composition of suprathermal seed ions by processes qualitatively similar to those that produce larger heavy-ion enhancements in impulsive SEP events. To address potential technical concerns about our analysis, we also discuss efforts to exclude impulsive SEP events from our event sample.

magnetic field↗

Solar disturbances and correlated geospace responses: Relativistic magnetospheric electron acceleration

The role of high-speed solar wind streams in driving relativistic electron acceleration within the earth's magnetosphere is discussed based on International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Observatory and related spacecraft observations. A 'recirculation' mechanism for electron acceleration and redistribution was invoked. Recently, an increase in the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and related 'magnetic clouds' was seen at 1 AU. As these CME/cloud systems interact with the earth's magnetosphere, they are able to produce rapid enhancements in the magnetospheric electron population. The relativistic electron signatures observed by the POLAR, SAMPEX, and other spacecraft during recent magnetic cloud events, especially January 1997 and May 1997, were compared and contrasted. In these cases, there were large solar wind and IMF changes during the cloud passages and very rapid energetic electron acceleration was observed. The relative geoeffectiveness of these events is examined and 'space weather' predicatability is assessed.

Baker, D. N.↗

X-ray imaging of flare loops and coronal arches

HXIS (Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer) results related to preflare, flare-decay, and post-flare phases in the solar corona are summarized. Particularly discussed are miniflares, long-lived X-ray enhancements along filament channels, flare precursors (some signifying the flare position, others possibly related to the onset of mass ejections), growth of post-flare loops, images of sites of field-line reconnections late in the flare development, giant post-flare coronal arches with energy contents comparable to coronal transients, and hot loops interconnecting active regions. The extremely low HXIS background, in particular, made it possible to discover many new, previously unknown features in the solar corona. Also emphasized are some problems that have appeared during the evaluation of HXIS data, for the benefit of those who plan future hard X-ray imaging experiments.

Svestka, Z.↗