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At least 649 records · Page 36

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Numerical Water Tracers in the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Implementation and Changes in Moisture Origin

Numerical water tracers are implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. Simulations performed with the water‐tag‐enabled model for both pre‐industrial and future greenhouse gas concentrations reveal a marked increase in the role of mid‐latitude and southern subtropical regions as exporters of atmospheric moisture—to the extratropical upper troposphere and the tropical free troposphere. For the latter, the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone increases cross‐hemispheric transport of subtropical water vapor to the Northern Hemisphere. In the polar regions, most of the lower tropospheric moistening instead arises from increases in local evaporation. These findings illustrate the utility of the water tags, underscore critical changes in global hydrologic cycle, and provide insight into atmospheric dynamics under future climate scenarios. For applications when a global grid is desired, we additionally propose a novel statistical reconstruction, based on copula modeling, of the joint distribution of origin of water vapor, which reduces the number of tracers from order $\mathcal{O}\left({n}^{2}\right)$to order $\mathcal{O}(n)$, substantially ameliorating the considerable computational cost of water tracers. This statistical reconstruction is particularly beneficial to the interpretation of the relationship between latitude and longitude of origin of moisture over the tropical oceans and in the lower troposphere over land.

copula modeling↗

Thermo-Mechanical Modeling and Evaluation of the Cracking Response of Additively Manufactured Monolithic SiC Lattice Structures Subjected to Laser Heating

Increasing operating temperatures of solar receivers is paramount to the efficiency of concentrated solar thermal (CST) and solar power (CSP) systems. Owing to its high temperature stability combined with excellent thermal and optical properties, SiC has been the material of choice for application in high-temperature solar receivers. The state-of-the-art SiC volumetric concentrating solar air receivers such as honeycomb design have been demonstrated in field tests to achieve exit air temperatures approaching 800oC. However, successful application of CST systems for decarbonization requires significant increase in temperature capability of SiC receiver technology. Supported by an award from the Solar Technology Office (SETO), US Department of Energy (DOE), GE Research in collaboration with Heliogen Holdings Inc, is engaged in the development of ultra-High Operating Temperature SiC-matrix Solar Thermal Air Receiver (HOTSSTAR) enabled by additive manufacturing. The program objective is to design and to demonstrate a techno-economically viable SiC air receiver technology to achieve exit air temperature of 1100oC for CST applications. This report summarizes the learnings of a computational study on additively manufactured SiC lattice structures subjected to laser heating. The results from this study aim to help guide the design of a SiC receiver through a better understanding of lattice structure geometric parameters and their implications on the cracking response of the structure. In the study, a heat flux was applied to the surface of a 2”-diameter cylindrical lattice structure to simulate a 4kW CO2 laser. The resulting temperature distribution was applied to a structural model to approximate the stress distribution within the lattice structure and a Weibull analysis was performed to gain insight into the probability of failure and to evaluate the cracking response of the structure. With this approach, the influence of lattice density on temperature, stress, and probability of failure was explored for two different lattice beam spacings. A discussion on modeling assumptions, a comparison with experimental results, and an evaluation of the lattice cracking response is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Implementation Aspects of Smart Grids Cyber-Security Cross-Layered Framework for Critical Infrastructure Operation

Communication networks in power systems are a major part of the smart grid paradigm. It enables and facilitates the automation of power grid operation as well as self-healing in contingencies. Such dependencies on communication networks, though, create a roam for cyber-threats. An adversary can launch an attack on the communication network, which in turn reflects on power grid operation. Attacks could be in the form of false data injection into system measurements, flooding the communication channels with unnecessary data, or intercepting messages. Using machine learning-based processing on data gathered from communication networks and the power grid is a promising solution for detecting cyber threats. In this paper, a co-simulation of cyber-security for cross-layer strategy is presented. The advantage of such a framework is the augmentation of valuable data that enhances the detection as well as identification of anomalies in the operation of the power grid. The framework is implemented on the IEEE 118-bus system. The system is constructed in Mininet to simulate a communication network and obtain data for analysis. A distributed three controller software-defined networking (SDN) framework is proposed that utilizes the Open Network Operating System (ONOS) cluster. According to the findings of our suggested architecture, it outperforms a single SDN controller framework by a factor of more than ten times the throughput. This provides for a higher flow of data throughout the network while decreasing congestion caused by a single controller’s processing restrictions. Furthermore, our CECD-AS approach outperforms state-of-the-art physics and machine learning-based techniques in terms of attack classification. The performance of the framework is investigated under various types of communication attacks.

cross-layered↗

Validation of predictive performance models for supersonic gas-jet nozzles at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics

We present results characterizing the neutral-density distributions produced by the supersonic nozzles used in experiments on the OMEGA-60 and OMEGA-EP laser systems at the University of Rochester’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE). Axisymmetric Fluent® simulations using LLE nozzle specifications capture the viscous effects, gas expansion, and shock waves that complicate flow predictions for offsets above the nozzle exit. Here, these simulations show good agreement with neutral-density measurements obtained using a four-wave shearing interferometer. An analytical form is given for the plateau length. Fits to simulation data for boundary layer thickness, mean plateau density, and density ramps are given as functions of nozzle offset and nozzle backing pressure for a number of nozzles and gases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Overlapping Domain Coupling of Multidimensional and System Codes in NEAMS - Pronghorn and SAM

This report describes the implementation and testing of domain-overlapping coupling of the Pronghorn and SAM codes. Both Pronghorn and SAM are codes developed by the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program for analysis of advanced nuclear reactors. Pronghorn focuses on analyzing multi-dimensional core flow conditions, while SAM focuses on analysis of the entire system including, among other components, piping, pumps, and heat exchangers. It is desirable for many advanced reactor thermal-hydraulics simulations to couple Pronghorn and SAM to obtain self-consistent solutions in the core and the system. The domain-overlapping coupling approach provides a robust and numerically efficient candidate for this coupling. We describe the algorithm for obtaining self-consistent solutions between a SAM network of flow channels and an overlapped multi-dimensional Pronghorn domain. The algorithm is tested for a variety of simple canonical test problems and a model of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). Results demonstrate that the domain overlapping coupling approach provides consistent pressure, mass flow rate, enthalpy, and passive scalar distributions between Pronghorn and SAM and converges reliably and efficiently (at most 15 iterations, usually much less than 10) for the considered test problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient Reinforcement Learning for Real-Time Hardware-Based Energy System Experiments: Preprint

In the context of urgent climate challenges and the pressing need for rapid technology development, Reinforcement Learning (RL) stands as a compelling data-driven method for controlling real-world physical systems. However, RL implementation often entails time-consuming and computationally intensive data collection and training processes, rendering them inefficient for real-time applications that lack non-real-time models. To address these limitations, real-time emulation techniques have emerged as valuable tools for the lab-scale rapid prototyping of intricate energy systems. While emulated systems offer a bridge between simulation and reality, they too face constraints, hindering comprehensive characterization, testing, and development. In this research, we construct a surrogate model using limited data from simulated systems, enabling an efficient and effective training process for a Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) agent for future deployment. Our approach is illustrated through a hydropower application, demonstrating the practical impact of our approach on climate-related technology development.

deep Q-learning↗

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript modeling microbial regulation of priming effects

This data package is associated with the publication “Modeling Microbial Regulatory Feedback in Organic Matter Decomposition Identifies Copiotrophic Traits as Key Drivers of Positive Priming” published as a preprint on BioRXiv by Ahamed et al. (2026); https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.11.607483. The package contains MATLAB scripts and saved simulation outputs used to implement a cybernetic model of microbial regulation during complex organic matter (OM) decomposition governing priming effects. It includes models of (i) single microbial functional groups (copiotrophic or oligotrophic degraders) and (ii) binary consortia composed of degraders and non-degraders with contrasting or common growth traits. Simulation results were generated using Monte Carlo analyses, with randomized key model parameters across a range of environmental mixing fractions of complex and labile OM. The dataset was created to provide a transparent and reusable computational framework for systematically exploring how microbial growth traits, metabolic regulation, and community composition influence OM decomposition dynamics and priming effects. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes the variable definitions. This package includes: (1) annotated MATLAB code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws; (2) saved output files containing data (e.g., biomass, substrates, enzyme levels, priming metrics); and (3) scripts for processing saved outputs and regenerating figures. Specifically, the data package contains three main MATLAB scripts: runPrimingModel.m, runPlotData.m, and runPlotSuppFigS1.m, along with this readme and supporting documentation. Users should begin with runPrimingModel.m, which contains the annotated code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws. This script runs the Monte Carlo simulations of microbial OM decomposition and allows users to modify microbial trait definitions, adjust parameter distributions, or define new community configurations. Simulation outputs are automatically saved as .mat files in the folder named SavedData, which stores all pre-generated results included in this package. The second script, runPlotData.m, reads files from the SavedData folder and processes them to regenerate the figures presented in the manuscript. The third script, runPlotSuppFigS1.m, specifically generates Figure S1 in the Supplementary Material of the manuscript. The package also includes the aforementioned files in non-proprietary .txt format. If users intend to use them, they should first save the files in their respective .m or .mat formats prior to execution in MATLAB.

Biomass concentration↗

Machine Learning for Neutron Resonance Evaluations [Slides]

The performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depends on a precise understanding of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials used in these systems. These cross sections exhibit a resonance structure whose shape is determined in part by the angular momentum quantum numbers of the resonances. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. In this presentation, we describe the application of machine learning to automate the quantum number assignments. Scikit-learn classifiers were trained on simulated resonance data whose statistical properties were chosen to mimic real data. We explored the use of several physics (and random matrix theory)-motivated features for training the classifiers, including the nearest neighbor spacing distribution, cumulative level distribution, and channel width distributions. Initial results demonstrated that we can determine resonance spin groups somewhat reliably. We are now investigating the application of our approach to 52 Cr resonance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Efficient learning of power grid voltage control strategies via model-based deep reinforcement learning

Here this article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results for model-free DRL-based methods in power systems control problems. But in power systems applications, these model-free methods have certain issues related to training time (clock time) and sample efficiency; both are critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. It is also desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, the state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model (SM), instead of a real-world power grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized within the policy learning framework, making the process faster and more sample efficient. However, having stable training in model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We addressed these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step loss in surrogate model training. Finally, we achieved 97.5% reduction in samples and 87.7% reduction in training time for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Real-Time Implementation and Validation of Federated Learning for Grid Services

Grid-edge devices are becoming increasingly important in the energy transition. Preserving privacy was not previously considered an important aspect for power grid operations, but with the increased proliferation of customer-owned assets, it is now an essential consideration. Several mechanisms have been proposed to provide privacy for non-utility owned assets in the power grid. Federated learning (FL) is one method gaining prominence in this area. Although FL has been used for other applications, such as auto-complete in phones, there has not been much investigation into whether these approaches are feasible for grid applications. In this work, we use a research platform with real-time simulators and hardware-in-the-loop capabilities to investigate how FL can be applied to grid-edge devices, and we present the potential grid services that can be derived for these devices. We discuss the computational challenges with deploying complex FL approaches, and we explore several grid services, including participation in retail electricity markets, voltage control, and resilience-driven reconfiguration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Group-Additivity–Embedded Multiscale Modeling for Electric Field-Enhanced Nanocatalysis

Elucidating structure-performance relationships remains a central challenge in field-enhanced catalysis, where nanoparticles exhibit nonuniform surface sites with site-dependent responses to electric fields. Low-coordination sites (edges, corners, and tips) are particularly electric field-sensitive (EF), leading to nonuniform charge distribution, adsorption energies, and catalytic activity. Here, using ammonia decomposition on a ruthenium cluster as a model system, we develop a transferable multiscale framework integrating density functional theory, group additivity (GA), Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi scaling, and microkinetic modeling to predict EF-dependent activity across nonuniform cluster sites. Across sites and fields, the nitrogen adsorption energy (E N ) emerges as the governing descriptor, yielding robust volcano relationships whose optimum shifts systematically with field: negative fields strengthen N binding via electron accumulation, while positive fields weaken N binding via charge depletion, moving the optimal E N toward weaker binding. Microkinetic analysis shows that N≡N bond formation remains the key kinetic bottleneck over most conditions; positive fields lower the effective barrier and, critically, increase the fraction of near-optimal active sites, leading to a net enhancement in overall activity relative to zero-field and negative-field cases. By capturing EF- and site-dependent energetics with high accuracy and low computational cost, this GA-embedded multi-scale simulation workflow provides a physically interpretable route to predict and design field-enhanced nanocatalysis.

ammonia decomposition↗

Cybersecurity Workforce Training for SMR Integration into Distribution Grids: A Competency Framework and Containerized Hands-On Lab for the SMR/DER/Microgrid Boundary

Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors are entering the U.S. distribution grid as synchronous generation on feeders designed for loads and inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs). No existing cybersecurity training program addresses this intersection of nuclear operations, DER management, and operational technology security. As subcontractor to Iowa State University on the CyDERMS Center, Argonne analyzed the relevant standards and training landscape, translated the resulting gaps into a twelve-objective competency framework across distribution-operator and graduate-analyst role tracks, and built a containerized training lab using a ∼400-bus composite grid model behind a realistically simulated Modbus TCP SCADA stack. The analysis isolates the balance-of-plant / energy-management-system (BOP/EMS) boundary as the critical jurisdictional seam where, as of March 2026, neither NRC nor NERC CIP cleanly claims cybersecurity responsibility for distribution-connected SMRs. The framework maps each objective across NIST CSF 2.0, ISA/IEC 62443, NIST NICE Task–Knowledge–Skill statements, and NRC RG 5.71 awareness-and-training controls. The training lab implements operator-recognition assessment scenarios spanning grid-side disturbances and telemetry-layer anomalies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Systems Using Co-Simulation

One approach for modeling natural gas and electricity networks as integrated systems is co-simulation, which involves separating a single model into subproblems that are solved iteratively, with coupling information passed between then. Although a fully integrated problem might be more direct, co-simulation offers advantages in that it can sometimes be more computationally tractable, and can also leverage existing simulation tools to represent the subproblems. Here we present a framework for co-simulation of natural gas and electricity networks using the HELICS tool. We provide validation of the co-simulation approach by comparing results with a fully integrated approach that uses the same simulation tool, finding that the two approaches provide identical results for a range of test cases. We then present results from natural gas and electricity network co-simulation case study of the Colorado Front Range, with an evaluation of the present-day system and also a future system with higher shares of renewable power. The presentation will close with a discussion on future avenues of work for co-simulation of gas and power networks.

co-simulation↗

Progress on Computational Modeling of Water-Based NSTF (FY2021)

This report documents the FY21 progress and achievements made in the computational analyses of the water-based NSTF. Both system-level and high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses were performed to gain a complete understanding of the complex flow and heat transfer phenomena in natural convection systems. The progress on the waterbased NSTF experimental testing is summarized in a companion report (ANL-ART-230). As a continuation of progress from previous years, in FY21 the RELAP5 model of the NSTF was first updated to include a representative heated cavity that incorporated convection and conduction means of heat transfer. Two different cavity models were developed, one that models the radiation heat exchange among all surfaces in one enclosure (Cavity Model 1), and another that employs multiple radiation enclosures with each considering the surfaces at one axial level (Cavity Model 2). This updated RELAP5 deck was benchmarked with single-phase test data to tune form loss coefficients of the elbows and tees, along with heat transfer coefficients within the cavity and off the external insulation panels. This tuned model was then found to accurately predict fluid temperatures within 2.5% and both system and riser flow rates within 6% during single-phase, steady-state simulations. For transient simulations, there is a slight over prediction of the flow rate, fluid temperatures, and heater temperatures during the heat-up period, which indicate that the transient heat loss may be underestimated. Following, the capabilities of RELAP5-3D were examined, which feature a conduction enclosure model that is not present in the current version of RELAP5-MOD3.3 used for all previous NSTF simulations. As an initial comparison of the two codes, single-phase simulations were run that used similar input decks. The results indicate that the single-phase flow predicted by the two codes was very similar, however RELAP5-3D appears to predict a higher system flow during the two-phase transient when compared to the flow rates predicted by RELAP5-MOD3.3. Furthermore, RELAP5-3D run did not capture the density wave oscillations or geysering phenomena, which are large oscillation flow instabilities observed in the experimental facility. To further the prediction capabilities for capturing two-phase instabilities, Options 55, 57, 58, 61, which are implemented by default in RELAP5-MOD3.3 but not in RELAP5-3D, were investigated. When enabling Option 61, RELAP5-3D agrees well with MOD3.3 in predicting the total system flow, while other options have negligible effect on the predicted total system flow by RELAP5-3D. However, none of these options enables RELAP5-3D to produce the same flow instabilities. For future steps, efforts are currently underway to investigate RELAP5-3D’s different behavior in predicting low-pressure two-phase instabilities. STAR-CCM+ was used to perform CFD analysis of the water-based test facility and provide simulation results for comparisons to experimental data. Efforts first focused on describing the characteristics of flow within the heated cavity. A study was performed on whether possible leakage flow between the two sides of the cavity could substantially impact and explain the results. An additional second assumption was examined which defined adiabatic side walls, so physical insulation structures were added to the models to allow conduction across this outer insulation. The results suggest that potential porosity of the insulation could be a major factor in the temperature distribution within the cavity and should be considered in any studies where it is desirable to know the cavity wall temperatures to higher accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Algorithm for Dynamic Load Prioritization in Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Increasing deployment of advanced sensing, controls, and communication infrastructure enables buildings to provide services to the power grid, leading to the concept of grid-interactive efficient buildings. Since occupant activities and preferences primarily drive the availability and operational flexibility of building devices, there is a critical need to develop occupant-centric approaches that prioritize devices for providing grid services, while maintaining the desired end-use quality of service. In this paper, we present a decision-making framework that facilitates a building owner/operator to effectively prioritize loads for curtailment service under uncertainties, while minimizing any adverse impact on the occupants. The proposed framework uses a stochastic (Markov) model to represent the probabilistic behavior of device usage from power consumption data, and a load prioritization algorithm that dynamically ranks building loads using a stochastic multi-criteria decision-making algorithm. The proposed load prioritization framework is illustrated via numerical simulations in a residential building use-case, including plug-loads, air-conditioners, and plug-in electric vehicle chargers, in the context of load curtailment as a grid service. Suitable metrics are proposed to evaluate the closed-loop performance of the proposed prioritization algorithm under various scenarios and design choices. Scalability of the proposed algorithm is established via computational analysis, while time-series plots are used for intuitive explanation of the ranking choices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Numerical and boundary condition effects on the prediction of detonation engine behavior using detailed numerical simulations

High-fidelity numerical simulations of an experimental rotating detonation engine with discrete fuel/air injection were conducted. A series of configurations with different feed-plenum pressures but with constant equivalence ratio were studied. Detailed chemical kinetics for the hydrogen/air system is used. A resolution study for the full rotating detonation engine (RDE) system simulation is also conducted. Two kinds of boundary conditions, a total pressure boundary and a constant mass flow rate boundary, are used to assess the effects of the inlet boundary. As mass flow rate is increased, the total pressure boundary causes more error in the axial pressure distribution while the constant mass flow rate gives a better solution for all cases ran. The simulations confirm experimental findings, and reproduce qualitative as well as some of the quantitative trends. These results demonstrate that a) fuel-air mixing is highly non-uniform within the detonation chamber, leading to variations in local equivalence ratio, b) the fuel and oxidizer injectors experience significant backflow as the detonation wave passes over, but recover at different rates which further augments the inefficiencies in mixing, and c) parasitic combustion in the mixing region makes the detonation wave weak by extending the reaction zone across the wave.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Large eddy simulation of a pressurized reactive fluid–particle system: single-particle dynamics analysis

Pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in power generation. Designing an effective burner plays a vital role in developing new combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of particles in a pressurized oxy-combustor could be higher than that in the conventional combustor, therefore, the particle dynamics in the pressurized vessel need to be evaluated accordingly. The present computational work is to predict the influence of the particle size and particle injection location on the particle trajectory. The Stokes number based on turbulence fluctuation, St, is adopted to evaluate the impact of the gas phase on the particulate phase. A large eddy simulation (LES) with the environment pressure of 15 bar and the thermal input of the fuel particle of 100 kWth has been performed by means of the commercial CFD package. It is shown that that in this pressurized environment St << 1 for the 25 µm particles, St ~ 1 for the 100 µm particles, while for the particles exceeding 200 µm St >> 1. The trajectories of the sampling particles from the LES results support this conclusion: the particles less than 100 µm tend to be uniformly distributed in the space while the particles exceeding 200 µm tend to concentrate in the combustor.

Li, Lei↗