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At least 649 records · Page 36

Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelica-json: Transforming energy models to digitize the control delivery process

Building simulation models are typically not used to generate the documentation required for bidding and project delivery of commercial building systems, or for their semantic modeling and commissioning. This paper presents a software tool that aids in digitizing the control delivery process, spanning simulation during design to implementation and formal verification during commissioning. The tool can generate from Modelica models digital documentation of control sequences. This digital documentation, along with other project drawings and specifications can be used for project bidding. It can also be used for implementation of control sequences through machineto-machine translation to commercial legacy control products, for which we are currently developing the proposed ASHRAE Standard 231P based on the presented work. Moreover, as-installed control sequences can be formally verified against the design specification, and a semantic model in Brick can be exported to aid in configuration of building analytics and fault detection. The paper presents what we believe is the first translation of a Modelica-implemented control sequence to a native implementation on a commercial control platform, using the webCTRL product line from Automated Logic. The paper also shows how a webCTRL implementation can be formally verified against its Modelica specification. These use cases have all been demonstrated with a prototype implementation that is now being further developed.

Wetter, Michael↗

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation

This study uses a convection‐permitting model simulation to describe the environmental conditions under which convective upscale growth occurs in central Argentina, particularly examining environmental parameters when deep convection initially forms that could differentiate the rate of initial upscale growth. Simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are separated into slow and rapid growth by the rate of spatial growth from convection initiation until reaching the MCS scale. A low‐level jet (LLJ) is found more frequently near the deep convection that experiences rapid growth to an MCS, but its presence alone is not predictive of rapid growth. Using spatially‐averaged parameters, we find that rapid growth to MCSs also occurs in environments that are significantly more thermodynamically favorable with greater low‐level moisture and instability. Fewer significant differences are found in the kinematic environment with only the 0–2 km vertical wind shear magnitude being significantly larger for rapid growth MCSs compared to slow growth MCSs, potentially related to LLJs often peaking near this height. When focusing only on MCSs with the slowest and fastest growth rates, elevated‐layer shear is significantly smaller for very rapid growth MCSs, suggesting elevated‐layer shear may help discriminate between the upper and lower bounds of growth rate. Finally, when upscale growth occurs near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) with a LLJ present, rapid growth is also supported by favorable wind shear orientation. However, this does not hold for upscale growth occurring away from the SDC, highlighting the importance of interpreting shear direction relative to the orientation of features initiating deep convection.

Sasaki, Clayton R. S. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl↗

Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) [SWR-16-18]

The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) is used to compute cloudy irradiance. Radiative transfer (RT) models simulating broadband solar radiation have been widely used by atmospheric scientists to model solar resources for various energy applications such as operational forecasting. Due to the complexity of solving the RT equation, the computation under cloudy conditions can be extremely time consuming though many approximations (e.g. two-stream approach and delta-M truncation scheme) have been utilized. Thus, a more efficient RT model is crucial for model developers as a new option for approximating solar radiation at the land surface with minimal loss of accuracy. We have developed a fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) using the simplified clear-sky RT model, REST2, and simulated cloud transmittances and reflectances from the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) with a sixteen-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT). Simulated lookup tables (LUTs) of cloud transmittances and reflectances were created by varying cloud optical thicknesses, cloud particle sizes, and solar zenith angles. Equations with optimized parameters were fitted to the cloud transmittances and reflectances to develop the model. Using this model the all-sky solar irradiance at the land surface can be computed rapidly by combining REST2 with the cloud transmittances and reflectances. This new RT model is more than 1000 times faster than those currently utilized in solar resource assessment and forecasting since it does not explicitly solve the RT equation for each individual cloud condition. Our results indicate the accuracy of the fast radiative transfer model is comparable to or better than two-stream approximation in term of computing cloud transmittance and solar radiation.

Xie, Yu↗

Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) 2023 [SWR-16-18]

The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) is used to compute cloudy irradiance. Radiative transfer (RT) models simulating broadband solar radiation have been widely used by atmospheric scientists to model solar resources for various energy applications such as operational forecasting. Due to the complexity of solving the RT equation, the computation under cloudy conditions can be extremely time consuming though many approximations (e.g. two-stream approach and delta-M truncation scheme) have been utilized. Thus, a more efficient RT model is crucial for model developers as a new option for approximating solar radiation at the land surface with minimal loss of accuracy. We have developed a fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) using the simplified clear-sky RT model, REST2, and simulated cloud transmittances and reflectances from the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) with a sixteen-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT). Simulated lookup tables (LUTs) of cloud transmittances and reflectances were created by varying cloud optical thicknesses, cloud particle sizes, and solar zenith angles. Equations with optimized parameters were fitted to the cloud transmittances and reflectances to develop the model. Using this model the all-sky solar irradiance at the land surface can be computed rapidly by combining REST2 with the cloud transmittances and reflectances. This new RT model is more than 1000 times faster than those currently utilized in solar resource assessment and forecasting since it does not explicitly solve the RT equation for each individual cloud condition. Our results indicate the accuracy of the fast radiative transfer model is comparable to or better than two-stream approximation in term of computing cloud transmittance and solar radiation.

Xie, Yu↗

Impact of Forest Canopy Structure on Buoyant Plume Dynamics During Wildland Fires

Heterogeneous forest canopies can generate complex turbulent structures, but in the presence of a fire plume, these interactions are not fully understood. This study investigates the influence of forest canopy heterogeneity on buoyant plume dynamics resulting from surface thermal anomalies representing wildland fires, utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) was employed to simulate six canopy configurations: no canopy, homogeneous canopy, external plume-edge canopy, internal plume-edge canopy, 100 m gap canopy, and 200 m gap canopy. Each configuration was analyzed with and without a static surface heat flux patch of 5000 W ∙ m -2 , resulting in a resting buoyant plume. Simulations were conducted under three crosswind speeds: 0, 5, and 10 m ∙ s -1 . Results show that canopy structure significantly modifies plume behavior, mean flow, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets. Plume updraft speed and tilt varied with canopy configuration and crosswind speed. Horizontal pressure gradients associated with plume-atmosphere interaction were modified based on the canopy configuration, resulting in varying crosswind speed reductions at the plume region. Strong momentum absorption was observed above the canopy for the crosswind cases, with the greatest enhancement in the gap canopies. Momentum injection from below the canopy due to the heat source was also observed, resulting in plume structure modulation based on canopy configuration. TKE was found to be the largest in the gap canopy configurations. TKE budget analysis revealed that buoyant production dominated over shear production. At the center of the heat patch, the gap canopy configurations showed enhanced buoyancy within the gap. These results improve our knowledge of fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions that can inform fire models on the impacts of canopy heterogeneity on plume dynamics and ember ejections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crack-Free 30% Chromium-Nickel Alloy Welding Products for Nuclear Service

We report prior research in the development of 30% chromium-nickel alloy nuclear welding wires has resulted in the resolution of primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) and ductility dip cracking (DDC) as well as improvement in solidification cracking (SC) resistance. The resolution of DDC exhibits some Laves phase, which has a negative effect on SC resistance. In this study, the use of an alternate carbide former, tantalum (Ta), in combination with niobium (Nb) was researched. Three heats of recently designed Filler Metal 52MSS-Ta (i.e., HV1648, HV1673A, and VX131WXW) were melted, fabricated, and systematically studied. DDC and SC were evaluated with thermodynamic modeling using the Scheil solidification simulation model, two types of varestraint tests, and strain-to-fracture (STF) testing. The varestraint and STF test results showed an improved SC resistance with reduced Laves phase and concurrent excellent DDC resistance. Optimized compositions with low Laves phase also exhibited high threshold strain values (TSVs) in the STF test. VX131WXW — which contains 2.81 wt-% Ta, 0.6 wt-% Nb, and 6 wt-% iron (Fe) - exhibited a TSV of 24%. Thermo-Calc computed the Laves phase to be 0.24% for VX131WXW compared to 0.06% in HV1673A. This difference in Laves phase resulted in the lower SC resistance of VX131WXW compared to HV1673A when measured with longitudinal varestraint testing. The maximum crack distance for HV1673A was about 0.6 mm while that of heat VX131WXW was about 1.0 mm. The typical diluted weld deposit made with VX131WXW was also resistant to PWSCC due to the chromium content exceeding 24%. These simultaneous results mark progress toward crack-free welds and provide direction for further optimization of Ta-containing filler metals.

30% chromium-nickel alloy↗

Cooperative lane control application for fully connected and automated vehicles at multilane freeways

Advances in communications technology have made the development of connected and automated vehicle (CAV) applications that may potentially replace traditional, gantry operated lane control signals (LCSs) possible. Here, we develop the concept of a prototype CAV-enabled LCS application and provides a preliminary assessment of the potential improvement it offers over traditional LCS. Real-world data obtained from an LCS on I-66 in Northern Virginia was used to calibrate and validate a baseline simulation model. Further, the current lane control scenarios utilized in the Northern Virginia LCS were identified and relevant data resulting from implementation of those scenarios were collected to model the LCS in a simulation environment. The performance of real-world LCS was then compared to a prototype CAV-enabled LCS application developed in this research. The CAV-enabled LCS application consistently outperformed the traditional LCS with increased throughput and speeds. On average, an increase of 18.4%, 9.6% and 12.8% in throughput was observed for three selected scenarios under the best case of a 1 sec headway. Furthermore, the CAV-enabled LCS application was also found to reduce volatility, represented by variation in acceleration and deceleration regimes, by an average of 25.6% and 49.6%. The reduction in turbulence in the traffic stream may indicate potential improved safety with the CAV system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing

Climate model simulations run under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) use an inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset, which exhibits pronounced interannual variability from 1997–2014 due to the infusion of satellite data. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) with original and smoothed CMIP6 BBA forcings, we show that the CMIP6 data inhomogeneity causes spurious decadal subarctic land warming. During years with reduced aerosol concentrations, increased solar radiation can trigger abrupt subarctic permafrost thawing, increased soil water drainage, upper soil drying, and subsequent surface warming. This slow process, which is further amplified by nonlinear cloud-aerosol interactions, cannot be completely offset during years of increased aerosol fluxes, thereby reddening surface temperature spectra in response to large-amplitude interannual aerosol forcing. More generally, our CESM2 experiments identify a pathway for generating decadal variability in high latitudes, involving interannual shortwave forcing and slow nonlinear soil responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of the atmospheric turbulence-development tendency on new particle formation: a common finding on three continents

Abstract A new mechanism of new particle formation (NPF) is investigated using comprehensive measurements of aerosol physicochemical quantities and meteorological variables made in three continents, including Beijing, China; the Southern Great Plains site in the USA; and SMEAR II Station in Hyytiälä, Finland. Despite the considerably different emissions of chemical species among the sites, a common relationship was found between the characteristics of NPF and the stability intensity. The stability parameter (ζ = Z/L, where Z is the height above ground and L is the Monin–Obukhov length) is found to play an important role; it drops significantly before NPF as the atmosphere becomes more unstable, which may serve as an indicator of nucleation bursts. As the atmosphere becomes unstable, the NPF duration is closely related to the tendency for turbulence development, which influences the evolution of the condensation sink. Presumably, the unstable atmosphere may dilute pre-existing particles, effectively reducing the condensation sink, especially at coarse mode to foster nucleation. This new mechanism is confirmed by model simulations using a molecular dynamic model that mimics the impact of turbulence development on nucleation by inducing and intensifying homogeneous nucleation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process‐based models will advance our understanding of “grassy” ecosystems

Abstract Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process‐based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hermes-3

Hermes-3 is a plasma simulation model built on BOUT++, developed as part of research studies of the edge and divertor regions of magnetically confined fusion plasmas such as tokamaks. The main purpose of this model is multi-species simulation of plasmas containing a mixture of deuterium, tritium, helium and other plasma and neutral gas species.

Dudson, BenjaminD↗

Real-Time Testbed for Transmission Line Protection

Hardware in the loop (HIL) testing is crucial for designing and managing electric power grids. These grids are becoming larger and more complex. The importance for students to have safe and intuitive ways to interact with the devices associated with the power grids has never been more crucial. Since most of these tests involve high voltages, this can be a deterrent for instructors and students in undergraduate programs. HIL testing is a solution to these common issues. This method has become one of the most popular methods for testing these power systems. With the use of Western Michigan University’s (WMU) Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) and SEL-421-7 protection relay, a HIL testbed has been created. These devices were interconnected using the communication protocol known as Generic Object-Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE). A simulated transmission line system was modeled in an RTDS software RSCAD as the basis for this testbed. This model simulated different types of faults that could occur in a transmission line while in operation. The SEL-421-7 relay is connected to the RSCAD simulation via GOOSE to protect our simulated transmission line. This testbed was set up to give students a clear understanding of how distance protection works as well as how the SEL-421-7 will react to various kinds of faults, in addition to how useful the RTDS can be when testing different power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. IX. Detection of Near-horizon Circular Polarization

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations have revealed a bright ring of emission around the supermassive black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy. EHT images in linear polarization have further identified a coherent spiral pattern around the black hole, produced from ordered magnetic fields threading the emitting plasma. Here we present the first analysis of circular polarization using EHT data, acquired in 2017, which can potentially provide additional insights into the magnetic fields and plasma composition near the black hole. Interferometric closure quantities provide convincing evidence for the presence of circularly polarized emission on event-horizon scales. We produce images of the circular polarization using both traditional and newly developed methods. All methods find a moderate level of resolved circular polarization across the image ( $\langle$| v |$\rangle$ < 3.7%), consistent with the low image-integrated circular polarization fraction measured by the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (| v int |< 1%). Despite this broad agreement, the methods show substantial variation in the morphology of the circularly polarized emission, indicating that our conclusions are strongly dependent on the imaging assumptions because of the limited baseline coverage, uncertain telescope gain calibration, and weakly polarized signal. We include this upper limit in an updated comparison to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulation models. This analysis reinforces the previously reported preference for magnetically arrested accretion flow models. We find that most simulations naturally produce a low level of circular polarization consistent with our upper limit and that Faraday conversion is likely the dominant production mechanism for circular polarization at 230 GHz in M87*.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Particle Receiver Models for Systems Analysis

Particle receivers are gaining importance in the field of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) due to the high temperature that particles can achieve without degradation. Several researchers are studying the potential of this technology by means of system analyses, which need simple and light models of the system. This study presents two simple models for the particle receiver. The simplest model is a correlation obtained by fitting the results calculated with a more complex receiver model simulated in CFD. The other model is a 1D model, which is benchmarked against the same CFD results. Although both models achieve high coefficient of determination, R2, when compared to CFD results, the 1D model seems to provide more accurate results (especially during sunsets and sunrises). Both models are integrated into a tecno-economic model developed in previous work. The LCOE obtained with the 1D model is between 7% and 10% greater than the one obtained with the correlation.

González-Portillo, Luis F. (ORCID:0000000348643825↗