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DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Tensor Decompositions for Scalable Supervised Learning of Scientific Data (Final Report)

In this document we highlight the detailed accomplishments and progress that we have made in this period. This progress seeks to address the three main objectives to provide new algorithms for quantifying uncertainty in low-multilinear-rank models and to leverage them for data analysis. These include: (1) develop probabilistic models for low-multilinear-rank functions; (2) develop a suite of Bayesian learning approaches to learn the probabilistic models from data; (3) apply the techniques on challenging problems arising in DOE-relevant applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1997

Scalable, Finite Element Analysis of Electromagnetic Scattering and Radiation

In this paper a method for simulating electromagnetic fields scattered from complex objects is reviewed; namely, an unstructured finite element code that does not use traditional mesh partitioning algorithms.

Cray Adaptive FORTRAN (CRAFT) refined mesh error i↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cost-optimized energy storage operation for a grid-connected solar PV system at community and individual scales

This study provides a comparative analysis of grid-connected PV-integrated battery storage at individual and community scales. The paper addresses the challenge of managing energy demand-generation mismatch by using a battery energy storage optimization algorithm, which minimizes operational costs while accounting for battery degradation. Also, this work introduces a broader evaluation basis that includes seasonal variability, grid exchange smoothness, and scalability across different battery capacities. Results show that community-scale storage more effectively dampens grid exchange power fluctuations and reduces system costs, particularly with moderate price differences between electricity buying and selling prices and low battery capacities. The paper also analyzes the impacts of static control versus cost-optimized battery system management. Here, it is shown that the gap in system costs between the cost-optimized and static control scenarios widens as the price difference increases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Astronomaly at scale: searching for anomalies amongst 4 million galaxies

ABSTRACT Modern astronomical surveys are producing data sets of unprecedented size and richness, increasing the potential for high-impact scientific discovery. This possibility, coupled with the challenge of exploring a large number of sources, has led to the development of novel machine-learning-based anomaly detection approaches, such as astronomaly. For the first time, we test the scalability of astronomaly by applying it to almost 4 million images of galaxies from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey. We use a trained deep learning algorithm to learn useful representations of the images and pass these to the anomaly detection algorithm isolation forest, coupled with astronomaly’s active learning method, to discover interesting sources. We find that data selection criteria have a significant impact on the trade-off between finding rare sources such as strong lenses and introducing artefacts into the data set. We demonstrate that active learning is required to identify the most interesting sources and reduce artefacts, while anomaly detection methods alone are insufficient. Using astronomaly, we find 1635 anomalies among the top 2000 sources in the data set after applying active learning, including eight strong gravitational lens candidates, 1609 galaxy merger candidates, and 18 previously unidentified sources exhibiting highly unusual morphology. Our results show that by leveraging the human–machine interface, astronomaly is able to rapidly identify sources of scientific interest even in large data sets.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient quantum simulation of QCD jets on the light front

Quark and gluon jets provide one of the best ways to probe the matter produced in ultrarelativistic high-energy collisions, from cold nuclear matter to hot quark-gluon plasma. In this work, we propose a unified framework for efficient quantum simulation of many-body dynamics using the ( 3 + 1 )-dimensional QCD Hamiltonian on the light front, particularly suited for studying the scattering of quark and gluon jets on nuclear matter in heavy-ion collisions. We describe scalable methods for mapping physical degrees of freedom onto qubits and for simulating in-medium jet evolution. We then validate our framework by implementing an algorithm that directly maps second-quantized Fock states onto qubits and uses Trotterized simulation for simulating time dynamics. Using a classical emulator, we investigate the evolution of quark and gluon jets with up to three particles in Fock states, extending prior studies. These calculations enable the study of key observables, including jet momentum broadening, particle production, and parton distribution functions. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Qian, Wenyang (ORCID:0000000155250996)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Universal energy-speed-accuracy trade-offs in driven nonequilibrium systems

The connection between measure theoretic optimal transport and dissipative nonequilibrium dynamics provides a language for quantifying nonequilibrium control costs, leading to a collection of thermodynamic speed limits, which rely on the assumption that the target probability distribution is perfectly realized. This is almost never the case in experiments or numerical simulations, so here we address the situation in which the external controller is imperfect. We obtain a lower bound for the dissipated work in generic nonequilibrium control problems that (1) is asymptotically tight and (2) matches the thermodynamic speed limit in the case of optimal driving. Along with analytically solvable examples, we refine this imperfect driving notion to systems in which the controlled degrees of freedom are slow relative to the nonequilibrium relaxation rate, and identify independent energy contributions from fast and slow degrees of freedom. Furthermore, we develop a strategy for optimizing minimally dissipative protocols based on optimal transport flow matching, a generative machine learning technique. Furthermore, this latter approach ensures the scalability of both the theoretical and computational framework we put forth. Crucially, we demonstrate that we can compute the terms in our bound numerically using efficient algorithms from the computational optimal transport literature and that the protocols we learn saturate the bound.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Convolutional Neural Networks for Hydrometeor Classification using Dual Polarization Doppler Radars

Traditional fuzzy logic hydrometeor classification algorithm is a common way to classify precipitation type from dual polarization doppler radar. We propose a deep learning-based method to estimate hydrometeors efficiently using observed radar variables such as horizontal reflectivity (Z H ), differential reflectivity (Z DR ), correlation coefficient (ρ HV ) and specific differential phase (K DP ) from National Weather Service NEXRAD collected at Vance AFB facility at the first elevation angle from January 1st, 2015 to July 31th, 2019. We stack matrices of values from these four polarimetric variables as one 3D array. Samples are preprocessed and divided into training, validation and test set with four target hydrometeor categories (Ice Crystals (IC), Dry Snow (DS), Light and/or Moderate Rain (RA) and Big Drops (rain) (BD)). We developed and optimized five Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) architectures and achieved an accuracy of 87.23% and 93.736% respectively using modified ResNet with two different input data selection strategies for hydrometeor classification. Training data selection strategies were important to ensure use of available samples in training for robust performance evaluated by applying the models to novel time period beyond what was use to train the model. Seasonal variation in atmospheric conditions lead to seasonal patterns of liquid vs solid forms of precipitation, that poses challenge for classifier and offer insights into domain specific approaches required for problem of hydrometeor identification. Computationally efficient and scalable approach for classification of hydrometeors offer opportunties to effectively use the large volumes of rich time series of radar observations that are becoming increasingly available.

Lu, Yuping↗

DOE OSTI2019

UPS: Unified PMU-Data Storage System to Enhance T+D PMU Data Usability

The emerging distribution-level phasor measurement unit (D-PMU) is expected to play an important role in enhancing distribution system observability and situational-awareness. It is a demanding yet challenging task to develop advanced D-PMU data management and analytics tools to improve D-PMU data usability and further promote D-PMU projects deployment. This paper focuses on D-PMU data processing and storage. It presents a brief review of existing D-PMU data storage systems and points out their limitations on high-performance, flexibility, and scalability. To overcome the limitations, a unified PMU-data storage system (UPS) is proposed. Specifically, a unified I/O interface between storage servers and computing jobs is developed to effectively reduce the overhead of managing various computing jobs and data analytics over multiple storage infrastructures; and PMUCache with PMUCache partitioning and PMUCache replacement algorithms are designed to support in-situ data processing and shared distributed data storage and further serve the computing jobs/queries with different Quality of Service (QoS) requirements. Through a series of experiments, it is demonstrated that UPS achieves high performance on fast and big data processing and storage, and efficiently increases the flexibility and scalability of PMU data management systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mu2e DAQ and slow control systems

The Mu2e experiment at the Fermilab Muon Campus will search for the coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the feld of an aluminum nucleus with a sensitivity improvement by a factor of 10,000 over existing limits. The Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition System (TDAQ) uses otsdaq as the online Data Acquisition System (DAQ) solution. Developed at Fermilab, otsdaq integrates both the artdaq DAQ and the art analysis frameworks for event transfer, fltering, and processing. otsdaq is an online DAQ software suite with a focus on fexibility and scalability and provides a multiuser, web-based, interface accessible through a web browser. The data stream from the detector subsystems is read by a software flter algorithm that selects events which are combined with the data fux coming from a Cosmic Ray Veto System. The Detector Control System (DCS) has been developed using the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) open source platform for monitoring, controlling, alarming, and archiving. The DCS System has been integrated into otsdaq. A prototype of the TDAQ and the DCS systems has been built at Fermilab’s Feynman Computing Center. In this paper, we report on the progress of the integration of this prototype in the online otsdaq software.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Locally adaptive activation functions with slope recovery for deep and physics-informed neural networks

Here we propose two approaches of locally adaptive activation functions namely, layer-wise and neuron-wise locally adaptive activation functions, which improve the performance of deep and physics-informed neural networks. The local adaptation of activation function is achieved by introducing a scalable parameter in each layer (layer-wise) and for every neuron (neuron-wise) separately, and then optimizing it using a variant of stochastic gradient descent algorithm. In order to further increase the training speed, an activation slope-based slope recovery term is added in the loss function, which further accelerates convergence, thereby reducing the training cost. On the theoretical side, we prove that in the proposed method, the gradient descent algorithms are not attracted to sub-optimal critical points or local minima under practical conditions on the initialization and learning rate, and that the gradient dynamics of the proposed method is not achievable by base methods with any (adaptive) learning rates. We further show that the adaptive activation methods accelerate the convergence by implicitly multiplying conditioning matrices to the gradient of the base method without any explicit computation of the conditioning matrix and the matrix–vector product. The different adaptive activation functions are shown to induce different implicit conditioning matrices. Furthermore, the proposed methods with the slope recovery are shown to accelerate the training process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning Constrained Parametric Differentiable Predictive Control Policies With Guarantees

We present differentiable predictive control (DPC), a method for offline learning of constrained neural control policies for nonlinear dynamical systems with performance guarantees. We show that the sensitivities of the parametric optimal control problem can be used to obtain direct policy gradients. Specifically, we employ automatic differentiation (AD) to efficiently compute the sensitivities of the model predictive control (MPC) objective function and constraints penalties. To guarantee safety upon deployment, we derive probabilistic guarantees on closed-loop stability and constraint satisfaction based on indicator functions and Hoeffding’s inequality. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed method can learn neural control policies for various parametric optimal control tasks. In particular, we show that the proposed DPC method can stabilize systems with unstable dynamics, track time-varying references, and satisfy nonlinear state and input constraints. Our DPC method has practical time savings compared to alternative approaches for fast and memory-efficient controller design. Specifically, DPC does not depend on a supervisory controller as opposed to approximate MPC based on imitation learning. We demonstrate that, without losing performance, DPC is scalable with greatly reduced demands on memory and computation compared to implicit and explicit MPC while being more sample efficient than model-free reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Secure, Scalable Control and Communications for Distributed PV

An increasing number of jurisdictions are adopting Distributed Energy Resource (DER) interconnection standards which require photovoltaic (PV) inverters, energy storage systems, and other DER to include interoperable grid-support functionality. These functions provide grid operators the nobs to support local and bulk power system operations with DER equipment, but the associated grid operator-to-DER communications networks must be deployed with appropriate cybersecurity features. In some situations, additional security features may prevent control system scalability or increase communication latencies and dropouts. These unintentional consequences of the security features would therefore hinder the ability of the grid operator to implement specific control algorithms. This project evaluated the tradeoffs between power system performance and cybersecurity metrics for several grid services.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Secure Scalable Control and Communications for Distributed PV (Final Technical Report)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2009

MODIS Science Algorithms and Data Systems Lessons Learned

For almost 10 years, standard global products from NASA's Earth Observing System s (EOS) two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors are being used world-wide for earth science research and applications. This paper discusses the lessons learned in developing the science algorithms and the data systems needed to produce these high quality data products for the earth sciences community. Strong science team leadership and communication, an evolvable and scalable data system, and central coordination of QA and validation activities enabled the data system to grow by two orders of magnitude from the initial at-launch system to the current system able to reprocess data from both the Terra and Aqua missions in less than a year. Many of the lessons learned from MODIS are already being applied to follow-on missions.

Wolfe, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hardware Autonomy for Space Infrastructure

NASA prioritizes autonomous systems development with the expectation that it will continue to drive significant improvements in human and science exploration capability. Crew operations benefit from a spectrum of machine assistance to complete replacement of dangerous or highly repetitive tasks. Many science operations have a teleoperation component, and similarly benefit from a range of autonomy implementations that make long distance applications feasible. As we consider longer duration deep space missions, we also consider higher levels of autonomy in order meet emergent safety, maintenance, and logistics needs. One of the challenges within this scope is installation and maintenance of infrastructure, such as large scale instrumentation and communications equipment, crew habitats, and operational facilities. We describe how a programmable meta-material architecture may shift the paradigm of how we design, build, and operate future space infrastructure and assets. A primary objective of this strategy is to free the design space from launch vehicle constraints and fundamentally shift how a mission is designed and conducted. This integrates advances in materials (mechanical meta-materials), manufacturing (cooperative mobile robotics), and autonomy (multi-agent planning algorithms). Engineering systems that utilize a modular and reconfiguration building block approach, such as digital communication and computation systems, currently lead in terms of size and complexity scalability. NASA is extending the benefits and flexibility of digital systems to hardware systems, to optimize materials life-cycle management and expand our space exploration mission capabilities to meet long duration and deep space infrastructure needs, in accordance with long term NASA goals of "in-space reliance" and "mass-less exploration."

In space assembly↗

DOE OSTI2017

ML-GA

ML-GA is a software that can be used to expedite design optimization process combining machine learning and genetic algorithm approaches. It employs a machine learning (ML) model (any ML algorithm can be incorporated) to predict the quality (merit) of a design from the input parameters. Then, a stochastic global optimization genetic algorithm (GA) is used, with the machine learning model as the objective function, to optimize the input parameters based on the merit function. ML-GA is scalable to higher computational platforms like supercomputers and clusters enabling optimization to be performed in significantly short time frames (e.g., in a day).

PAL, PINAKI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rubik’s Cube Topology Based Particle Swarm Algorithm for Bilevel Building Energy Transaction

Following the rapid growth of distributed energy resources (e.g. renewables, battery), localized peer-to-peer energy transactions are receiving more attention for multiple benefits, such as, reducing power loss, stabilizing the main power grid, etc. To promote distributed renewables locally, the local trading price is usually set to be within the external energy purchasing and selling price range. Consequently, building prosumers are motivated to trade energy through a local transaction center. This local energy transaction is modeled in bilevel optimization game. A selfish upper level agent is assumed with the privilege to set the internal energy transaction price with an objective of maximizing its arbitrage profit. Meanwhile, the building prosumers at the lower level will response to this transaction price and make decisions on electricity transaction amount. Therefore, this non-cooperative leader-follower trading game is seeking for equilibrium solutions on the energy transaction amount and prices. In addition, a uniform local transaction price structure (purchase price equals selling price) is considered here. Aiming at reducing the computational burden from classical Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) transformation and protecting the private information of each stakeholder (e.g., building), swarm intelligence based solution approach is employed for upper level agent to generate trading price and coordinate the transactive operations. On one hand, to decrease the chance of premature convergence in global-best topology, Rubiks Cube topology is proposed in this study based on further improvement of a two-dimensional square lattice model (i.e., one local-best topology-Von Neumann topology). Rotating operation of the cube is introduced to dynamically changing the neighborhood and enhancing information flow at the later searching state. Several groups of experiments are designed to evaluate the performance of proposed Rubiks Cube topology based particle swarm algorithm. The results have validated the effectiveness of proposed topology and operators comparing with global-best version PSO and Von Neumann topology based PSO and its scalability on larger scale applications.

Feng, Xiaochun↗