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DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change. Likewise, this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa. By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs, numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes. These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation over Africa in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2013

Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetized metric for evaluating the benefits associated with marginal reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It represents the expected welfare loss from the future damages caused by the release of one tonne of CO2 in a given year, expressed in consumption equivalent terms. It is intended to be a comprehensive measure, taking into account changes in agricultural productivity, human health risks, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, and the frequency and severity of flooding and storms, among other possible impacts. Estimating the SCC requires long-term modeling of global economic activity, the climate system, and the linkages between the two through anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the effects of changing climatic conditions on economic activity and human well-being. The United States government currently uses the SCC in regulatory benefit-cost analyses to assess the welfare effects of changes in CO2 emissions. Consistent application of the SCC to federal rulemaking analyses began in 2009-2010 with the development of a set of global SCC estimates that employed three prominent integrated assessment models (IAMs) -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE. The U.S. government report identified a number of limitations associated with SCC estimates in general and its own assumptions in particular: an incomplete treatment of damages, including potential “catastrophic” impacts; uncertainty regarding the extrapolation of damage functions to high temperatures; incomplete treatment of adaptation and technological change; and the evaluation of uncertain outcomes in a risk-neutral fashion. External experts have identified other potential issues, including how best to model long-term socio-economic and emissions pathways, oversimplified physical climate and carbon cycle modeling within the IAMs, and an inconsistency between non-constant economic growth scenarios and constant discount rates. The U.S. government has committed to updating the estimates regularly as modeling capabilities and scientific and economic knowledge improves. To help foster further improvements in estimating the SCC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy hosted a pair of workshops on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis.” The first focused on conceptual and methodological issues related to integrated assessment modeling and the second brought together natural and social scientists to explore methods for improving damage assessment for multiple sectors. These two workshops provide the basis for the 13 papers in this special issue.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic performance analysis of two regional Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

In support of more efficient utilization of clean energy generation sources, including renewable and nuclear options, hybrid energy systems (HES) can be designed and operated as flexible energy resources (FER) to meet both electrical and thermal energy needs in the electric grid and industrial sectors. These conceptual systems could effectively and economically be utilized, for example, to manage the increasing levels of dynamic variability and uncertainty introduced by variable energy resources (VER) such as renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar), distributed energy resources, demand response schemes, and modern energy demands (e.g., electric vehicles) with their ever changing usage patterns. HES typically integrate multiple energy inputs (e.g., nuclear and renewable generation) and multiple energy outputs (e.g., electricity, gasoline, fresh water) using complementary energy conversion processes. This work reports a preliminary dynamic analysis of two realistic HES including a nuclear reactor as the main baseload heat generator and to assess the local (e.g., HES owners) and system (e.g., the electric grid) benefits attainable by their application in scenarios with multiple commodity production and high renewable penetration. It is performed for regional cases - not generic examples - based on available resources, existing infrastructure, and markets within the selected regions. This study also briefly addresses the computational capabilities developed to conduct such analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning

Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hydropower Operations in the Colorado River Basin: Institutional Analysis of Opportunities and Constraints

The Colorado River Basin is facing an unprecedented drought. In ongoing drought management efforts, limited attention has been paid to hydropower generation. While some studies do exist on hydropower, they are quantitative in nature and focus on calculating the reduction in megawatts generated at dams in the Basin with declining water availability. These studies simplify the complex process of hydropower generation; water availability is but one factor that impacts hydropower generation. At a more fundamental level, formal institutional arrangements, that is, laws, policies, and rules create the framework within which dams are operated and hydropower is generated. This paper conducts a comparative institutional analysis of water, environment, and energy laws and policies and changes therein to understand the constraints and opportunities faced by hydropower generation in the Colorado River Basin. To tease out the nuances in how institutional arrangements affect dam operations and hydropower generation, the comparative analysis focuses on the two largest and strategically important dams in the Basin: Hoover and Glen Canyon. This paper uses Elinor Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development Framework to analyze laws and policies at three levels: constitutional-choice, collective-choice, and operational levels. Constitutional-choice level laws and policies apply to the entire Basin, whereas collective-choice level and operational level laws and policies are dam specific. Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams face similar biophysical challenges by the virtue of their location in the same river basin. Yet, despite the similarity in the biophysical setting, the analysis in this study finds that the differences in the applicability of constitutional-choice level laws along with the differences in dam specific collective-choice and operational level institutional arrangements produce a distinct set of constraints for hydropower generation at Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams. Even without a drought, water and environmental laws at both the constitutionalchoice and collective-choice levels as well as power contracts constrain hydropower generation and limit the flexibility with which Glen Canyon Dam can be operated. Water and environmental laws also impose specific water release requirements that, at times, require off-peak power generation at Glen Canyon Dam. On the other hand, even with a drought, Hoover Dam faces limited hydropower generation constraints and can operate flexibly. This is because constitutional-choice level laws and dam-specific collective-choice and operational level laws pose limited constraints for flexible daily operations at Hoover. The result is that Hoover Dam can generate hydropower at the same level as it did three decades ago and operate flexibly to provide ancillary services and peaking generation. While water and environmental laws and policies pose constraints for hydropower generation, the analysis in this study further finds that specific historic provisions within energyrelated institutional arrangements and recent changes within power contracts have maintained and even enhanced the value of hydropower to power customers. Historic institutional provisions ensure that hydropower is sold ‘at cost’ making this resource economically competitive with wholesale electricity market rates. Recent power contract modifications have resulted in the amendment of an older resale prohibition clause to expand the flexibility available to power customers in using their capacity and/or energy allocation in RTOs, ISOs, and bulk power markets. This amendment has opened up an opportunity for customers, especially Hoover power customers, to use flexible generation and ancillary services in a market environment. In addition, the extension of power contract duration to the legally maximum term has enhanced the reliability and stability of this resource for customers. In the Colorado River Basin, despite the enduring economic responsibility of power customers—where laws require customers to pay for a large portion of construction and O&M costs whether or not they actually receive hydropower— the persistent threat of a drought-induced water shortage, and constraints imposed by water and environmental laws and policies, power customers continue to invest in this resource as energy-related institutional arrangements and power contract provisions protect the reasons why they value hydropower. Lastly, the analysis in this study finds that the consequences of changes in hydropower generation for energy users, irrigators, and environmental programs in the Basin depend on how specific institutional arrangements tie electricity revenues to irrigation aid and environmental programs, and how the power contracts themselves are set up. Collective-choice level institutional arrangements create a higher level of financial dependency of irrigation aid and environmental programs on electricity revenues in the Upper Basin—the legal subdivision of Colorado River where Glen Canyon Dam is located—compared to the Lower Basin—the legal subdivision of Colorado River where Hoover Dam is located. Therefore, changes in hydropower generation or the way its revenue is collected and used will have far reacting detrimental consequences for the Upper Basin. Likewise, differences in the nature of power contracts for Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams also creates differences in the financial impact incurred by energy users when there is a reduction in hydropower generation. While this study identifies the types of impacts on resource users as a result of specific institutional arrangements, the calculation of extent of impact warrants further attention. Hydropower in the United States is in a unique position today. The strategic importance of this resource for the nation’s electricity sector is rapidly growing even as its contribution to overall electricity generation remains fairly small. This strategic importance, however, is built hydropower’s ability to operate flexibly in order to support the integration of intermittent renewable generating sources and the expansion of electricity markets. As this study shows, such flexibility may not be available at certain plants not due to the lack of water availability but because of institutional constraints. Institutional arrangements may also require dam operators to first consider high priority water uses (such as irrigation or environmental needs), which in turn may limit the ability to generate hydropower when it is most valuable or useful. Engineering and quantitative models, such as production cost models, recognize policy constraints for hydropower operations but often inadequately capture or assume away such constraints in the models. A failure to account for policy constraints in these models runs the risk of inaccurate representation of the operational flexibility and capacity available at specific hydropower plants, which can result in over/underestimation of hydropower’s ability to support the integration of variable renewable resources and address grid reliability concerns. Against this background, this paper and the analysis herein serves as an example of how we can systematically identify institutional constraints (and opportunities) that influence the flexibility in not only generating electricity at specific dams but also using this hydropower once it is generated.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Change vs. Transformation, Hard Edges to Soft - The Role of Integrated Land Use Planning in the Adaptive Reuse of Contaminated Sites - 16431

Between the bookends of World War II and the Cold War, numerous cycles of up-sizing, down-sizing, and right sizing resulted in changing needs for federal real property to support government missions. The end of the Cold War has yielded many opportunities for reuse of federal facilities as defense-related property needs have been lessened. These federal facilities have both a historic and an environmental legacy, from radionuclides to unexploded ordnance to landfills and everything in between. Private-sector manufacturing sites have been especially affected by changing market demands. Obsolescence and advancing technologies have made the 'have to have it' product into the 'what was that for?' The result has been thousands of hectares (acres) of contaminated land throughout the country. While site histories go back in time, it is the environmental cleanup contaminants that have the ability to go forward in time and influence the future use of a site. Demonstrating that property conditions are protective of human health and the environment facilitates reuse options for these properties. Site reuse creates land for communities to attract businesses, grow their tax bases, add open space, and implement sustainability efforts, such as renewables, or set the property aside for future possibilities. A broad range of sites have been made available across the country as a result of federal mission changes and changed economic market conditions affecting private industry. This broad range of properties should have similarly broad recipes for reuse. Even with the constraints of zoning, topographic/natural conditions and use restrictions necessitated by past operations, the pathways to creative, adaptive, and sustainable reuse can be taken by integrating the planning with the remediation or, in a more community-sensitive approach, by integrating the remediation with the planning. Situations do exist where a like-kind use is an ideal reuse option, but a redevelopment of sameness need not be a foregone conclusion. Unlike the operational and imposed environments from which these sites came, with their engineered features often developed in a systematic manner with straight lines and hard edges, they can indeed be transformed into functional, relaxed, and engaging places and be productive again. A site's transformation can begin with how the remediation incorporates sustainable techniques that consider the future use of a site, and how the sustainable remediation can dovetail with the community's reuse plans. Rather than building on Greenfields and extending infrastructure and services to more distant locations, many communities are looking within their already developed footprints for growth possibilities. For some communities this is their only source of growth. Stigmatized and challenged as they may be to reuse, the nation's excess, under-utilized, surplus, and abandoned industrial past presents opportunities well worth considering for improvement to local and regional economies. Communities that are engaged in remediation and reuse planning efforts at these sites have the opportunity to shape their futures, transform their identities and incorporate sustainable practices throughout the process. Unlike the simple name change of a facility, transformative change takes time. Transformative change relies on working partnerships, dedication to achieving something better, open communication, and cooperative planning. It is this type of change that tends to be lasting and tailored to a place. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Missouri Agricultural Energy Saving Team-A Revolutionary Opportunity (MAESTRO)

The Missouri Agricultural Energy Saving Team-A Revolutionary Opportunity (MAESTRO) program brought together a team of representatives from government, academia, and private industry to enhance the availability of energy efficiency services for small livestock producers in the State of Missouri. The Missouri Department of Agriculture (MDA) managed the project via a subcontract with the University of Missouri (MU), College of Agriculture Food and Natural Resources, MU Extension, the MU College of Human Environmental Sciences, the MU College of Engineering, and the Missouri Agricultural and Small Business Development Authority (MASBDA). MU teamed with EnSave, Inc, a nationally-recognized expert in agricultural energy efficiency to assist with marketing, outreach, provision of farm energy audits and customer service. MU also teamed with independent home contractors to facilitate energy audits of the farm buildings and homes of these livestock producers. The goals of the project were to: (1) improve the environment by reducing fossil fuel emissions and reducing the total energy used on small animal farms; (2) stimulate the economy of local and regional communities by creating or retaining jobs; and (3) improve the profitability of Missouri livestock producers by reducing their energy expenditures. Historically, Missouri scientists/engineers conducted programs on energy use in agriculture, such as in equipment, grain handling and tillage practices. The MAESTRO program was the first to focus strictly on energy efficiency associated with livestock production systems in Missouri and to investigate the applicability and potential of addressing energy efficiency in animal production from a building efficiency perspective. A. Project Objectives The goal of the MAESTRO program was to strengthen the financial viability and environmental soundness of Missouri's small animal farms by helping them implement energy efficient technologies for the production facility, farm buildings, and the homes on these farms. The expected measurable outcomes of the project were to improve the environment and stimulate the economy by: • Reducing annual fossil fuel emissions by 1,942 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, reducing the total annual energy use on at least 323 small animal farms and 100 farm homes by at least 8,000 kWh and 2,343 therms per farm. • Stimulating the economy by creating or retaining at least 69 jobs, and saving small animal farmers an average of $2,071 per farm in annual energy expenditures. B. Project Scope The MAESTRO team chose the target population of small farms because while all agriculture is traditionally underserved in energy efficiency programs, small farms were particularly underserved because they lack the financial resources and access to energy efficiency technologies that larger farms deploy. The MAESTRO team reasoned that energy conservation, financial and educational programs developed while serving the agricultural community could serve as a national model for other states and their agricultural sectors. The target population was approximately 2,365 small animal farm operations in Missouri, specifically those farms that were not by definition a confined animal feeding operation (CAFO). The program was designed to create jobs by training Missouri contractors and Missouri University Extension staff how to conduct farm audits. The local economy would be stimulated by an increase in construction activity and an increasing demand for energy efficient farm equipment. Additionally, the energy savings were deemed critical in keeping Missouri farms in business. This project leveraged funds using a combination of funds from the Missouri Department of Natural Resources’ Missouri Energy Center and its Soil and Water Conservation Program, from the state's Linked Deposits, MASBDA's agricultural loan guarantee programs, and through the in-kind contribution of faculty and staff time to the project from these agencies and MU. Several hundred Missouri livestock producers were contacted during the MAESTRO project. Of the livestock producers, 254 invited the team to conduct a farm energy assessment which complied with ASABE 612. A total of 147 livestock farm upgrades were implemented, representing 57.5 percent of the farms for which a farm energy assessment was completed. This represented a statewide average annual savings of 1,088,324 kWh and 75,516 therms. The team also reviewed the condition of the livestock producer’s home(s). A total of 106 home energy assessments were completed and 48 individual homes implemented their recommended upgrades, representing 45 percent of the farm homes for which an energy assessment was completed. This represented a statewide average annual savings of 323,029 kWh, and 769.4 therms. More of these farmers likely would have updated their homes but the funding to incentivize them fell short. In spite of the shortfall in incentive funds, some farmers still updated their homes as they saw the value in making these changes to their home.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hamilton: Flexible, Open Source $10 Wireless Sensor System for Energy Efficient Building Operation

Sensors for improving building performance are rapidly populating the market, driven in part by the drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from energy production as well as improve the interior environment for healthy and more productive spaces. UC Berkeley has led wireless sensor development over the past 25 years (e.g., Telos mote), with the Hamilton (named after Alexander Hamilton on the US $10 bill) as the most recent. The Hamilton sensor was designed as a low-cost high-performance sensor that is modular and interoperable. The objective of the Hamilton project was to create, evaluate and establish the technological foundations for secure and easy to deploy building energy efficiency applications utilizing pervasive, low-cost wireless sensors integrated with traditional Building Management Systems (BMS), consumer-sector building components, and powerful data analytics. The project included iterative hardware design, incorporating a high-performance database (BTrDb, http://btrdb.io/), creating and iterating the development of secure data middleware (BOSSwave, WAVE/WAVEMQ), working with and pushing the development of an open-source tiny operating system RiotOS, and implementing and improving protocols such as Thread/OpenThread and TCP/IP. The hardware benefited from careful design to drive down the cost; the design included a System-on-a-Chip (SoC), chip antenna, single crystal and five passive components. Careful design of the operating system created a low-power design to enable a long life with small batteries. The hardware included several sensors: temperature, radiant temperature, relative humidity, magnetometer, accelerometer, and light, with an optional occupancy (Passive InfraRed) sensor. The project was the basis of several applications, both internal to the research team and other researchers and professionals at other institutions. Several applications used the sensor hardware as the basis for other complex devices. Other applications used the sensors to improve building performance through interoperating with the building Heating Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) system, such as using occupancy and/or distributed temperature sensing to reduce HVAC zone energy while still providing thermal comfort and to reduce peak loads in small commercial buildings. We demonstrated cloud-based energy analytics, implemented a schedule and a Model Predictive Controller in a small commercial building to optimize HVAC energy, occupancy and electricity price. Initial integration of these technological innovations was performed through the creation of execution containers containing the WAVE agent and various driver, proxy, or building system function logic. The research added to the understanding of efficient sensor hardware, secure middleware, time-series data management (high performance database), efficient communication protocols, and interoperating with applications and building systems. The project showed the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of creating a low-cost, modular, and easy-to-deploy sensor. Through conversations with multiple end users, the research team discovered that many customers wanted data management and services in addition to the sensors. HamiltonIOT developed packages of sensors, border router, and data services to provide a seamless “plug-and-play” sensor deployment. Some customers were willing to pay for higher quality sensors (such as light); some customers wanted a robust enclosure (waterproof).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling of High-Resolution Residential Load Profiles Using Low-Resolution Smart Meter Measurements

Accurate and high-resolution residential load profiles are essential for power system modeling, demand response planning, and effective grid operation. As the energy sector moves towards a more actively managed distribution system, the ability to understand residential energy consumption at a minute-by-minute scale becomes increasingly critical. High-resolution load profiles provide key insights into demand patterns and user behavior, enabling grid operators to design more effective energy solutions; however, residential load measurements in the field are typically recorded at low resolutions, such as 15-60 minutes, which makes it hard to study the characteristics of different residential customers. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a data-driven approach to generate realistic, high-resolution residential load profiles based on lowre-solution measurements and weather information. The proposed method retains the key features of the actual residential load measurements while offering appliance-level energy consumption details for each residential building. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load profile generator, proving its capability to support utilities in optimizing residential energy management and ensuring a more reliable and resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multicycle large-eddy simulations of a direct-injection hydrogen-fueled optical engine

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a carbon-free chemical energy carrier and one promising solution for achieving effective decarbonization of the transportation sector, particularly for internal combustion engines (ICEs). With a focus on ICEs, and compared to port-fuel injection, direct injection (DI) of gaseous H 2 during the compression stroke offers potential advantages, which include backfire avoidance and reduction of preignition occurrence. In these last two decades, much research, experimental and numerical, has been devoted to understanding H 2 's mixing and combustion processes in ICEs. Computational fluid dynamics modeling efforts commonly rely on unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) turbulence frameworks, mostly due to their computational affordability. However, many authors have pointed out the opportunity to perform large-eddy simulations (LESs) to investigate the cyclic variability of H 2 engines and assess potential advantages of using LES in place of URANS, especially for lean operation. This study addresses this knowledge gap and presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of the H 2 DI process in an optical engine operating at relatively low tumble conditions, using multicycle LESs. In conclusion, the manuscript presents a thorough validation of the results against experimental data available from the literature as well as direct comparison with URANS, demonstrating the feasibility of multicycle LESs for CFD modeling of DI H 2 -fueled ICEs.

Direct injection↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Supply Chains and Advanced Manufacturing of Small Hydropower Systems

Clean energy manufacturing is a sector of increasing importance both in the United States and worldwide. In the United States, it has been presented as an engine for job creation in a sector of the U.S. economy that was hit hard by the 2008-2009 recession. The Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center (CEMAC), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducts credible, objective, industry-relevant, recurring, and consistent analyses of clean energy technologies. In this project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) collaborated in a hydropower manufacturing and supply chain analysis primarily for U.S. small hydropower (SHP) market to provide insights on supply chain constraints, manufacturing cost, location factors, and opportunities for hydropower using advanced manufacturing technologies. The goal of the project is to improve understanding of the manufacturing opportunities in the U.S. hydropower supply chain, specific competitive advantages, and factors for manufacturing location decisions for SHP. These insights could be used to inform investment and research strategies, policy, and other decisions that could promote economic growth and strengthen U.S. manufacturing capabilities. The project scope included a design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMA) costs analysis and a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) sensitivity analysis of modular, representative SHP turbines. A representative SHP system was chosen to be made up of two 5 megawatt (MW) turbines, as these Kaplan style turbines could be useable for many non-powered dams (NPDs) across the U.S. The sensitivity analysis used the Integrated Design and Assessment (IDEA) tool, which has helped highlight the impact of the turbine equipment cost on the potential capital expenditure (CAPEX) and LCOE of the installed, representative system. In addition, the project team analyzed international tradeflows (e.g., export and import of hydropower turbines and the parts used in hydropower systems). As part of this project, hydropower stakeholder interviews were undertaken to help identify insights related to hydropower manufacturing opportunities for U.S. players in SHP, the country-specific manufacturing advantages in the United States and threats, and key factors behind manufacturing location decisions made by the SHP industry. Key opportunities for the US SHP market and industry include: Foreign export markets such as Chile, China, Columbia, India and Japan, have an estimated 71,795 MW of technical potential that could be serviced with SHP installations. Utilization of existing manufacturing capacity and expertise, along with economies of scale benefits, could result in increased global competitiveness through lower investment requirements and component costs, which could lead to increased U.S. strength in the export of SHP systems and components. Technology advances such as modular turbine designs, standardized units for conduit systems, precast systems, and improved powertrain technologies could help reduce costs, particularly for manufacturing a small number of units. The DOE is also exploring modular hydropower designs, which would integrate standard independently-produced components, validated to meet multiple specifications. Using modules in product design simplifies manufacturing activities such as inspection, testing, assembly, and purchasing, may increase economies of scale to lower total system cost. There are significant opportunities for the use of composites and Additive Manufacturing (AM) for hydropower components, when design changes are made to hydropower systems. By taking advantage of the corrosion resistance, light-weighting and structural benefits, composites and AM could help significantly alter hydropower structures and installations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating CO 2 mitigation strategies in SAF biorefineries: Techno-economic and life cycle analysis

The aviation sector requires scalable decarbonization strategies, and lignocellulosic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents a promising pathway. This study comparatively evaluates the techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) of three CO 2 management strategies integrated within a U.S.-based gasification–Fischer–Tropsch SAF biorefinery: (i) catalytic hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methanol, (ii) geological CO 2 sequestration, and (iii) mineralization to sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ). Techno-economic analysis indicates that methanol synthesis requires approximately 26% higher capital investment and 33% higher operating costs than mineralization. Although methanol co-production generates the highest gross revenue, NaHCO 3 production reduces the SAF minimum selling price by approximately 38% relative to both methanol synthesis and geological sequestration pathways, reflecting a more balanced cost allocation through mineral co-product valorization. Geological sequestration lowers operating costs by nearly 50% compared with methanol synthesis but remains highly dependent on carbon credit mechanisms. LCA reveals substantial divergence in climate performance. Relative to methanol synthesis, sequestration improves net greenhouse gas performance by approximately 163%, transitioning the system from net-positive to net-negative emissions. Mineralization further enhances carbon mitigation, achieving roughly 85% greater carbon reduction than sequestration and over sixfold improvement relative to methanol synthesis within the defined system boundary. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen price, co-product market value, and process emissions as dominant drivers. Under baseline assumptions, CO 2 mineralization is found to offer the most balanced pathway.

Carbon capture and storage↗
DOE OSTI2014

Strengthening Retrofit Markets for Comprehensive Savings in Multifamily Buildings (Interim Final Report)

Energy efficiency is vitally important in Maine. Nearly 70% of Maine households rely on fuel oil as their primary energy source for home heating, a higher share than in any other state. Coupled with the state's long, cold winters, Maine's dependence on oil renders homeowners particularly vulnerable to fluctuating fuel costs. With $\$$4.5 million in seed funding from the Energy Department's Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, the Governor's Energy Office (GEO), through Efficiency Maine Trust (the Trust), is spurring Maine landlords to lower their monthly energy bills and improve comfort for their tenants during the state's cold winter months and increasingly warmer summers. Maine's aging multifamily housing stock can be expensive to heat and costly to maintain. It is not unusual to find buildings with little or no insulation, drafty windows, and significant air leaks, making them ideal candidates for energy efficiency upgrades. Maine modeled its Multifamily Efficiency Program (MEP) after the state's highly successful Home Energy Savings Program (HESP) for single-family homes. HESP provided cash incentives and financing opportunities to owners of one-to four-unit structures, which resulted in thousands of energy assessments and whole-house energy upgrades in 225 communities. Maine's new MEP multifamily energy efficiency upgrade and weatherization initiative focuses on small to medium-sized (i.e., five to 20 units) apartment buildings. The program's energy efficiency upgrades will provide at least 20% energy savings for each upgraded multifamily unit. The Trust’s MEP relies on a network of approved program partners who help move projects through the pipeline from assessment to upgrade. MEP has two components: benchmarking and development of an Energy Reduction Plan (ERP). Using the ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager benchmarking tool, MEP provides an assessment of current energy usage in the building, establishes a baseline for future energy efficiency improvements, and enables tracking and monitoring of future energy usage at the building— all at no cost to the building owner. The ERP is developed by a program partner using either the Trust’s approved modeling or prescriptive tools; it provides detailed information about the current energy related conditions in the building and recommends energy efficiency, health, and safety improvements. The Trust's delivery contractor provides quality assurance and controls throughout the process. Through this effort, MEP's goal is to establish a self-sustaining, market-driven program, demonstrating the value of energy efficiency to other building owners. The increasing value of properties across the state will help incentivize these owners to continue upgrades after the grant period has ended. Targeting urban areas in Maine with dense clusters of multifamily units—such as Portland, Lewiston- Auburn, Bangor, and Augusta—MEP engaged a variety of stakeholder groups early on to design its multifamily program. Through direct emails and its website, program officials invited lending institutions, building professionals, engineering firms, equipment distributors, and local property owners associations to attend open meetings around the state to learn about the goals of the multifamily program and to help define its parameters. These meetings helped program administrators understand the diversity of the customer base: some owners are individuals with a single building, while other owners are groups of people or management companies with an entire portfolio of multifamily buildings. The diversity of the customer base notwithstanding, owners see MEP as an opportunity to make gains in their respective properties. Consistently high turnouts at stakeholder meetings fueled greater customer interest as awareness of the program spread through word of mouth. The program also gained traction by utilizing the program partner networks and building on the legacy of the Trust’s successful HESP for single-family residences. MEP offers significant incentives for building owners to participate in the upgrade program. Wholebuilding benchmarking services are available to most multifamily housing buildings free of charge. The service provides the building owner with an assessment of the building's current energy efficiency as compared to other multifamily buildings on a national scale, establishes a baseline to measure future improvements, and enables owners to track monthly energy consumption using the ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager. Once the benchmarking process is complete, the program links building owners with approved program partners (e.g., energy professionals, home performance contractors) to identify and implement specific energy-saving opportunities in the building. Program partners can also provide project quotes with estimated financing incentives and payback period calculations that enable building owners to make informed decisions. What's more, the Trust provides two financial incentives for successful completion of program milestones. The first is a per-unit incentive for completion of an approved ERP (i.e., $\$$100 per unit if a prescriptive path is followed, and $\$$200 per unit for a modeled ERP). Upon final inspection of the installed project scope of work, an incentive of $\$$1,400 per unit or 50% of installed cost—whichever is less—is paid. The Trust originally established a $\$$1 million loan-loss reserve fund (LLRF) to further enhance financing opportunities for qualified multifamily building owners. This funding mechanism was designed to connect building owners with lenders that retain the mortgages for their properties and encourages the lenders to offer financing for energy efficiency improvements. However, there has been no interest in the LLRF and therefore the LLRF has been reduced. Ultimately, MEP plans to build an online tool for building owners to assess opportunities to make upgrades in their multifamily units. The tool will include a performance rating system to provide a way for building owners to more easily understand energy use in their building, and how it could be improved with energy efficiency upgrades. Prospective tenants will also be able to use the rating system to make informed decisions about where to rent. Furthermore, the rating can be incorporated into real estate listings as a way for prospective home buyers and the real estate financial community to evaluate a home's operating costs. The Trust’s MEP has identified the state's most experienced energy professionals, vendors, suppliers, and contractors that install energy efficiency equipment in the multifamily sector to be qualified program partners. To be eligible for partnership, energy assessment professionals and contractors are required to have demonstrated experience in the multifamily sector and hold associated professional certifications, such as Building Operator Certification (BOC), Certified Energy Manager (CEM), Professional Engineer (PE), or Building Performance Institute (BPI) Multifamily Building Analyst. Widespread program interest has enabled the Trust to redirect funds that might otherwise be needed for program promotion to building capacity through contractor training. In addition to boosting professional training and certification opportunities, MEP teaches its partners how to market the multifamily program to prospective multifamily homeowners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2011

Final Technical Report: Results of Phase 1

Arizona Public Service Company (APS) expects that by 2027, renewable energy will account for 6,590 GWh in energy consumption by its customers. While much of this future energy will come from large centrally-located power plants, distributed renewable energy, sited at the point of end-use will also play an important role in meeting the needs of APS customers and is expected to provide 1,734 GWh. With increasing penetration of residential and commercial photovoltaic (PV) systems at the point of end-use, PV power generation not only offsets the load, but could also cause significant shifts in power flow patterns through the distribution system, and could possibly cause reversal of flow through some branches of a distribution circuit. Significant changes to power flow introduced into existing distribution systems due to the increased amount of PV systems may cause operational issues, including over-voltage on the distribution feeder (loss of voltage regulation) and incorrect operation of control equipment, which may lead to an increase in the number of operations and related equipment wear that could affect equipment reliability and customer power quality. Additionally, connecting generation resources to a distribution feeder can introduce additional sources of short-circuit current to the distribution system. This could potentially result in increased short-circuit currents, potentially reaching damaging levels, causing protection desensitization and a potential loss of protection coordination. These effects may be further compounded by variability of PV production due to shading by clouds. The effects of these phenomena in distributed PV applications are not well understood, and there is a great need to characterize this variability. This project will contribute to understanding the effects of high-penetration solar electricity on the design and operation of distribution systems by demonstrating how a high penetration of PV systems affects grid operations of a working, utility distribution feeder. To address the technical challenges related to the integration of distributed PV when PV penetration levels reach or exceed 30% of the total load, technologies and methods to ensure the stable and safe operation of the feeder will be evaluated. Lessons learned will enable APS to improve the framework for future PV integration on its system and may also aid other utilities across the United States energy sector in accelerating the adoption of distributed photovoltaic generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Special Considerations for the Removal and Disposal of Micro-Reactor Experiments

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is preparing to host several microreactor experiments through 2030 and beyond. Two new test beds currently under development will operate as microreactor or nuclear system experiment user facilities. Test bed experiments will be performed in series, with each nuclear experiment installed, operated, and removed before installation of the subsequent experiment. The necessarily brief transition period between experiments introduces unique equipment removal and radioactive waste disposal challenges. This paper evaluates equipment removal and radioactive waste management topics associated with tight sequencing of nuclear experiments and presents some of the solutions and approaches currently planned to meet these special considerations for one such experiment, the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), slated for operation at INL’s Laboratory for Operation and Testing in the United States (LOTUS). The MCRE project is a collaboration between Southern Company Services, TerraPower, and INL, among others, to provide integral nuclear data that will advance molten salt fast reactor technology. MCRE will be the first critical fast-spectrum circulating fuel system ever operated and the first experiment operated in the LOTUS test bed. The experiment will nominally operate at zero power with planned low power excursions as part of operational planning for MCRE has been to minimize at-power operations to limit fission product formation while still achieving experimental objectives. After the experiment is complete, MCRE will be allowed to radioactively decay for a short period (nominally 90 days) prior to system defueling, flushing, removal, and disposal of all MCRE equipment, readying the test bed for the next nuclear experiment. Equipment removal and radioactive waste disposal have been integral to MCRE project planning since the Cooperative Research and Development Agreement was formalized in 2021. Due to requirements for future use of the test bed, the MCRE system, of necessity, must be removed in a much shorter time frame than typical for historic reactor decommissioning projects at INL. This results in minimal time for radioactive decay, resulting in not only elevated radiation dose rates but also the presence of short-to-medium-lived isotopes not typically encountered in the reactor decommissioning and radioactive waste management space. Additional unique constraints placed on the project include lack of intrinsic remote-operations capabilities in the test bed, space constraints in the test bed once MCRE has been installed, and contamination minimization requirements to return the test bed to as-found conditions to enable future use. This paper discusses planned solutions to these challenges. Approaches for implementing remote or semi-remote technologies in a non-hot cell environment with limited space availability are discussed. The paper also summarizes the systems engineering approach for concept development and design of equipment removal systems, which are being implemented concurrent with the MCRE design phase, providing feedback to system designers to incorporate features enabling efficient and safe equipment removal approaches. The timing of this paper at a relatively early phase of the project is meant to highlight the importance of early planning for nuclear system decommissioning while reactor design is ongoing to allow design feedback on componentry driven from decommissioning system needs. As new, innovative nuclear reactor technologies enter the nuclear market sector, reactor experiments are crucial for providing new integral nuclear data that establish safe operational margins for technology advancement. Microreactor experiments at INL will require safe, effective, and timely decommissioning approaches, which in turn require nuclear systems designed to expedite decommissioning. In addition to the advancement of nuclear reactor technologies, these nuclear experiments provide an opportunity to demonstrate, deploy, and test new removal and disposal capabilities to support the next generation of nuclear reactor technology.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kansas City, Missouri, Streetlight Electric Vehicle Charging: Strategies and challenges for site selection of streetlight electric vehicle infrastructure in Kansas City, Missouri (Final Report)

Public streetlight charging, whether on streets in central business districts or residential areas, provides easy charging access for apartment residents and homeowners alike. While most electric vehicle (EV) drivers charge at home, they do so in garages or on driveways they own. For renters and residents of multifamily housing (MFH), however, this may not be an option. EVs have a lower cost of ownership compared to conventional vehicles, and a used EV may be an affordable option for a lower-income household. But without easy access to charging, even a low-cost used EV may not be an option for a prospective buyer. An affordable curbside charging network has the potential to expand EV adoption into neighborhoods that have to date seen minimal interest and uptake of the technology and associated charging infrastructure. Streetlight charging networks can provide an economical, scalable, and effective approach to providing equitable and convenient charging. Metropolitan Energy Center (MEC) is dedicated to the mission of creating resource efficiency, environmental health, and economic vitality in the Kansas City region and beyond. Since 1983, MEC has provided resources, outreach, and training to make alternative fuels and energy efficiency commonplace. MEC led a streetlight charging pilot project that installed limited EV charging infrastructure on the streetlight system in Kansas City, Missouri, to demonstrate and test the benefits of curbside charging for EVs at existing on-street parking locations. The project aimed to cost-effectively expand the charging network in Kansas City to support residential charging and provide infrastructure in one or more charging deserts throughout the city. This pilot evaluates the impact and overall success of streetlight charging based on community feedback, utilization of charging infrastructure, technical feasibility, and cost. The project has pursued a data- and community-driven site selection process designed to identify sites with high demand and high opportunity for EV charging. This project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and awarded to MEC through a competitive proposal process. The novelty and complexity of this project required an organization that could facilitate collaboration across levels of government, community members, and industry partners. For the past 25 years, through Kansas City Regional Clean Cities, MEC has worked with numerous public and private fleets on a variety of projects to improve the environmental performance and efficiency of the regional vehicle fleet. To advance affordable, efficient, and clean transportation efforts, DOE Clean Cities and Communities coalitions create local networks of public and private sector stakeholders and engage communities. Rooted within their local communities, the coalitions serve as experts and ambassadors, bringing to bear the collective knowledge, experience, and practical know-how of the entire network from within DOE, its national laboratories, and diverse stakeholders in the field. MEC and its project partners made in-kind contributions to leverage federal dollars for the benefit of the Kansas City community. Findings from this project will help determine the best applications for streetlight charging technologies to maximize funding impact and serve community needs. The team evaluated locations based on expected charging demand, technical feasibility, safety considerations, and enhanced charging network siting needs. Throughout the project, the team gathered feedback and evaluated ways to make public charging for EVs available to all community members. The insights will help Kansas City and other communities streamline future efforts to support EV drivers through public charging in the city right-of-way. Furthermore, this project will inform citywide guidance for future installations. MEC is committed to a transparent and publicly accessible approach that encourages the collaborative evaluation of streetlight charging. The project has engaged the community to proactively identify and evaluate the benefits and impacts of streetlight charging. It was a priority for the project to ensure the benefits of this pilot are distributed equitably to all members of the Kansas City community and that new charging opportunities and associated resources are available in diverse neighborhoods across the city. The charging infrastructure supports an affordable curbside charging network that will enable more drivers to choose EVs and provide easy charging access for all community members interested in driving an EV. The community feedback received through this project informed future resources and opportunities to make EVs more accessible to all members of the Kansas City community. MEC worked with several community partners on this project, including Missouri University of Science and Technology (MST), Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); the city of Kansas City, Missouri; Evergy; Black and McDonald (B&M); LilyPad EV; EVNoire; and Westside Housing Organization (WHO). Project partners contributed to the cost match required for DOE grants through capital expenditures, personnel, and other in-kind contributions. Detailed descriptions of project team organizations can be found in Appendix A. Project Partners. Analysts at NREL and MST/PennState developed site maps based on demand and equity considerations. MEC conducted outreach to community members to garner input on project design and site selection, and received approval from the Missouri Public Service Commission (PSC) for Evergy’s EV charging station ownership. MEC worked with all partners to gather additional siting criteria and developed a site selection evaluation checklist, and partners conducted site visits to proposed installation sites. Next, B&M, Evergy, and the city executed all site agreements, conducted site-specific engineering design, acquired associated permits, and issued notices to proceed site by site or in small batches. Finally, from January to April 2023, the project team installed 23 EV charging stations built on Kansas City’s streetlight system in six council districts. Evergy will own, operate, and monitor the stations for 10 years, sharing charging data with MEC for at least 1 year.

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