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Real-time expert systems for monitoring and control are driven by input data which changes with time. One of the subtle problems of this field is the propagation of time variant problems from rule to rule. This propagation problem is even complicated under a multiprogramming environment where the expert system may issue test commands to the system to get data and to access time consuming devices to retrieve data for concurrent reasoning. Two approaches are used to handle the flood of input data. Snapshots can be taken to freeze the system from time to time. The expert system treats the system as a stationary one and traces changes by comparing consecutive snapshots. In the other approach, when an input is available, the rules associated with it are evaluated. For both approaches, if the premise condition of a fired rule is changed to being false, the downstream rules should be deactivated. If the status change is due to disappearance of a transient problem, actions taken by the fired downstream rules which are no longer true may need to be undone. If a downstream rule is being evaluated, it should not be fired. Three mechanisms for solving this problem are discussed: tracing, backward checking, and censor setting. In the forward tracing mechanism, when the premise conditions of a fired rule become false, the premise conditions of downstream rules which have been fired or are being evaluated due to the firing of that rule are reevaluated. A tree with its root at the rule being deactivated is traversed. In the backward checking mechanism, when a rule is being fired, the expert system checks back on the premise conditions of the upstream rules that result in evaluation of the rule to see whether it should be fired. The root of the tree being traversed is the rule being fired. In the censor setting mechanism, when a rule is to be evaluated, a censor is constructed based on the premise conditions of the upstream rules and the censor is evaluated just before the rule is fired. Unlike the backward checking mechanism, this one does not search the upstream rules. This paper explores the details of implementation of the three mechanisms.
A complete listing is given of the expert system rules for the Entry phase of the Onboard Navigation (ONAV) Ground Based Expert Trainer System for aircraft/space shuttle navigation. These source listings appear in the same format as utilized and required by the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) expert system shell which is the basis for the ONAV entry system. A schematic overview is given of how the rules are organized. These groups result from a partitioning of the rules according to the overall function which a given set of rules performs. This partitioning was established and maintained according to that established in the knowledge specification document. In addition, four other groups of rules are specified. The four groups (control flow, operator inputs, output management, and data tables) perform functions that affect all the other functional rule groups. As the name implies, control flow ensures that the rule groups are executed in the order required for proper operation; operator input rules control the introduction into the CLIPS fact base of various kinds of data required by the expert system; output management rules control the updating of the ONAV expert system user display screen during execution of the system; and data tables are static information utilized by many different rule sets gathered in one convenient place.
Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.
Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.
If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current population and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Various guidelines have been proposed to date to support this effort, including the development of right of way rules to guide how a collision avoidance maneuver should be performed, and how the maneuver burden should be shared between the two satellites involved. However, it is very difficult to evaluate and compare proposed guidelines due to the complex nature of space traffic and the rapidly changing space environment. This study seeks to address this issue by utilizing the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a high-fidelity simulation tool that has been developed at Georgia Tech over the past few years with the explicit purpose of evaluating the future of space traffic environment. Using this tool, a sensitivity study is performed that incorporates a likely set of future large constellations and provides metrics on the impact that a select set of proposed maneuvering guidelines would have on operators given realistic variations in spacecraft capabilities (e.g. maneuverability and propulsion capabilities), and other factors (owner-country, public vs. private, etc.). Specifically, this study compares three potential right of way rules: 1) a rule based on maneuverability proposed by the Space Safety Coalition, 2) a rule based on the geometry of the spacecraft rendezvous, and 3) a rule that equally distributes the maneuver burden between two operators, The results highlight general observations on the effectiveness and limitations of each of the proposed maneuvering guidelines. In addition to the choice of right of way rule, success of space traffic management will be significantly impacted by compliance – which operators, or how many operators, comply with the space traffic rules. The findings of this analysis have important implications for future methods that could be pursued to put in place right of way rules. For example, non-binding right of way rules may have variable levels of compliance that differ across actors. The impact of compliance by just one nation, or non-compliance by just one nation, help to demonstrate the impact of ensuring all major space actors coordinate on this effort. Overall, this analysis provides insight into the relative gains in safety (decrease in collision risk) that would likely result from more politically intense efforts to increase the number of countries implementing space traffic management rules.
A system, method, and computer readable-media for creating a stable synthetic neural system. The method includes training an intellectual choice-driven synthetic neural system (SNS), training an emotional rule-driven SNS by generating emotions from rules, incorporating the rule-driven SNS into the choice-driven SNS through an evolvable interface, and balancing the emotional SNS and the intellectual SNS to achieve stability in a nontrivial autonomous environment with a Stability Algorithm for Neural Entities (SANE). Generating emotions from rules can include coding the rules into the rule-driven SNS in a self-consistent way. Training the emotional rule-driven SNS can occur during a training stage in parallel with training the choice-driven SNS. The training stage can include a self assessment loop which measures performance characteristics of the rule-driven SNS against core genetic code. The method uses a stability threshold to measure stability of the incorporated rule-driven SNS and choice-driven SNS using SANE.
Utility-scale systems that combine solar photovoltaic and battery (PV+battery) technologies are growing in popularity on the U.S. bulk power system. The business case for PV+battery systems depends on both their ability to reduce costs and their ability to generate value synergies associated with the provision of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Capacity value can constitute a significant portion of the value PV+battery hybrids provide to the grid (e.g., through avoided or deferred capacity) and receive through revenues. Throughout this report, we define capacity value as the monetary value of a plant's contribution towards the planning reserve margin, which ultimately depends on market rules and structures. PV+battery hybrids do not always fit into current market structures because of the interactions between the PV and battery components. Unique considerations for the capacity value of PV+battery hybrids include the disparate nature of participation models for PV and battery technologies in existing market rules and the potential influence of a shared interconnection capacity; limitations imposed by a shared inverter; limited ability to charge the battery in advance of capacity events if charging must be sourced from the coupled PV; and challenges or uncertainties associated with co-optimizing the operations of the PV and battery components. Grid operators are currently considering how market structures can be modified to optimally determine the capacity value provided by PV+battery systems, and the rules of how they are integrated into markets are still being written. As with any resource, poorly designed rules could increase the cost of energy and reduce system reliability, while well-designed rules could allow markets to receive the full benefits hybrid systems can offer without overcompensating them for the services they provide. Well-designed rules for PV+battery systems must consider the unique aspects listed above, while leveraging the commonalities with existing resource types. In this report, we summarize the technical capability and market rules that influence the capacity value of PV+battery systems. We further discuss the potential tradeoffs between computational complexity and accuracy for the various ways in which grid operators can credit PV+battery systems for capacity. Finally, we describe markets for capacity, survey current wholesale market rules applying to PV+battery systems, and provide a snapshot of the current regulatory landscape for PV+battery systems.
A fuzzy classifier system that discovers rules for controlling a mathematical model of a pH titration system was developed by researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM). Fuzzy classifier systems successfully combine the strengths of learning classifier systems and fuzzy logic controllers. Learning classifier systems resemble familiar production rule-based systems, but they represent their IF-THEN rules by strings of characters rather than in the traditional linguistic terms. Fuzzy logic is a tool that allows for the incorporation of abstract concepts into rule based-systems, thereby allowing the rules to resemble the familiar 'rules-of-thumb' commonly used by humans when solving difficult process control and reasoning problems. Like learning classifier systems, fuzzy classifier systems employ a genetic algorithm to explore and sample new rules for manipulating the problem environment. Like fuzzy logic controllers, fuzzy classifier systems encapsulate knowledge in the form of production rules. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the ability of fuzzy classifier systems to generate a fuzzy logic-based process control system.
Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.
The number of objects in space has been increasing rapidly, and the risk of collision has grown as well. Many spacecraft operators are now receiving multiple collision warnings a day. Despite this, systems to manage space traffic have been limited: there are no broadly agreed upon guidelines or rules governing the response to predicted potential collisions. Instead, spacecraft operators generally determine whether, when, and how to respond to these warnings on a manual and ad hoc basis. Coordination between operators, if it occurs, often requires repeated communication and negotiation. Some space actors have suggested that the space community should develop right of way rules, similar to those in the ground, sea, and air domains, to guide collision response decisions. However, it is unclear whether such rules would be effective, and it’s unknown whether such rules would have an equitable impact across various spacecraft operators. To address these issues, we developed the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a software tool that was used to simulate the space environment with a recent catalog of objects obtained from the U.S. Space-Track.org system. We implemented multiple potential right of way rules within this model. The analysis confirmed that the choice of right of way rule makes a meaningful difference in terms of both efficiency and distributional effects in terms of collision avoidance maneuvers. For example, our analysis shows that rules in which the less massive satellite is required to maneuver results in a more equitable distribution of maneuver responsibility among space actors and also requires less fuel mass, compared to a rule in which the more massive satellite maneuvers.
This report works through two sample design analyses of representative Grade 91 components using the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5, Appendix HBB-T rules for the strain and deformation and creep-fatigue design criteria using a design by inelastic analysis approach. The component geometries and loadings were selected to span a wide variety of potential applications. The sample components are an endplate geometry, which is fairly representative of typical pressure vessel construction, and a core block, representing a critical component in a heat pipe microreactor, which has a complicated geometry and complex thermal stress history. These sample problems serve several functions. First, they are complete worked examples of how to apply the current design by inelastic analysis rules. Second, they serve as test cases to evaluate the current rules and provide feedback on how they could be optimized to deal with complicated component geometries or to be better automated in modern finite element analysis software. Finally, the analysis here uses an inelastic constitutive model for Grade 91 developed by Argonne National Laboratory and proposed for inclusion in the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules as a reference constitutive model. Using this constitutive model in the sample problem analyses tests the model in the context of the ASME Code rules. The final conclusions of this report are that the material model and the current Code rules are satisfactory, but that the Code rules could be optimized to simplify automation and reduce over conservatism. Future work should address the specific optimization topics discussed in this report.
The C language integrated production system (CLIPS) is a forward chaining rule based language to provide training and delivery for expert systems. Conceptually, rule based languages have great potential for benefiting from the inherent parallelism of the algorithms that they employ. During each cycle of execution, a knowledge base of information is compared against a set of rules to determine if any rules are applicable. Parallelism also can be employed for use with multiple cooperating expert systems. To investigate the potential benefits of using a parallel computer to speed up the comparison of facts to rules in expert systems, a parallel version of CLIPS was developed for the FLEX/32, a large grain parallel computer. The FLEX implementation takes a macroscopic approach in achieving parallelism by splitting whole sets of rules among several processors rather than by splitting the components of an individual rule among processors. The parallel CLIPS prototype demonstrates the potential advantages of integrating expert system tools with parallel computers.
The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) cannot effectively perform sound and complete logical inference in most real-world contexts. The problem facing CLIPS is its lack of goal generation. Without automatic goal generation and maintenance, forward chaining can only deduce all instances of a relationship. Backward chaining, which requires goal generation, allows deduction of only that subset of what is logically true which is also relevant to ongoing problem solving. Goal generation can be mimicked in simple cases using forward chaining. However, such mimicry requires manual coding of additional rules which can assert an inadequate goal representation for every condition in every rule that can have corresponding facts derived by backward chaining. In general, for N rules with an average of M conditions per rule the number of goal generation rules required is on the order of N*M. This is clearly intractable from a program maintenance perspective. We describe the support in Eclipse for backward chaining which it automatically asserts as it checks rule conditions. Important characteristics of this extension are that it does not assert goals which cannot match any rule conditions, that 2 equivalent goals are never asserted, and that goals persist as long as, but no longer than, they remain relevant.
All the NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) goals except the Learning System provide the scientist with several different techniques. When VEG is run, rules assist the scientist in selecting the best of the available techniques to apply to the sample of cover type data being studied. The techniques are stored in the VEG knowledge base. The design and implementation of an interface that allows the scientist to add new techniques to VEG without assistance from the developer were completed. A new interface that enables the scientist to add techniques to VEG without assistance from the developer was designed and implemented. This interface does not require the scientist to have a thorough knowledge of Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) by Intellicorp or a detailed knowledge of the structure of VEG. The interface prompts the scientist to enter the required information about the new technique. It prompts the scientist to enter the required Common Lisp functions for executing the technique and the left hand side of the rule that causes the technique to be selected. A template for each function and rule and detailed instructions about the arguments of the functions, the values they should return, and the format of the rule are displayed. Checks are made to ensure that the required data were entered, the functions compiled correctly, and the rule parsed correctly before the new technique is stored. The additional techniques are stored separately from the VEG knowledge base. When the VEG knowledge base is loaded, the additional techniques are not normally loaded. The interface allows the scientist the option of adding all the previously defined new techniques before running VEG. When the techniques are added, the required units to store the additional techniques are created automatically in the correct places in the VEG knowledge base. The methods file containing the functions required by the additional techniques is loaded. New rule units are created to store the new rules. The interface that allow the scientist to select which techniques to use is updated automatically to include the new techniques. Task H was completed. The interface that allows the scientist to add techniques to VEG was implemented and comprehensively tested. The Common Lisp code for the Add Techniques system is listed in Appendix A.
This paper describes the building of a corn disease diagnostic expert system using CLIPS, and the development of a neural expert system using the fact representation method of CLIPS for automated knowledge acquisition. The CLIPS corn expert system diagnoses 21 diseases from 52 symptoms and signs with certainty factors. CLIPS has several unique features. It allows the facts in rules to be broken down to object-attribute-value (OAV) triples, allows rule-grouping, and fires rules based on pattern-matching. These features combined with the chained inference engine result to a natural user query system and speedy execution. In order to develop a method for automated knowledge acquisition, an Artificial Neural Expert System (ANES) is developed by a direct mapping from the CLIPS system. The ANES corn expert system uses the same OAV triples in the CLIPS system for its facts. The LHS and RHS facts of the CLIPS rules are mapped into the input and output layers of the ANES, respectively; and the inference engine of the rules is imbedded in the hidden layer. The fact representation by OAC triples gives a natural grouping of the rules. These features allow the ANES system to automate rule-generation, and make it efficient to execute and easy to expand for a large and complex domain.