Meteoroid damage assessment - Space vehicle design criteria
Meteoroid damage determination and spacecraft structure protection and reliability
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Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems
This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.
Kalia, Prince↗
Advanced Techniques for Assessment of Postural and Locomotor Ataxia, Spatial Orientation, and Gaze Stability
In addition to adapting to microgravity, major neurovestibular problems of space flight include postflight difficulties with standing, walking, turning corners, and other activities that require stable upright posture and gaze stability. These difficulties inhibit astronauts' ability to stand or escape from their vehicle during emergencies. The long-ter7n goal of the NSBRI is the development of countermeasures to ameliorate the effects of long duration space flight. These countermeasures must be tested with valid and reliable tools. This project aims to develop quantitative, parametric approaches for assessing gaze stability and spatial orientation during normal gait and when gait is perturbed. Two of this year's most important findings concern head fixation distance and ideal trajectory analysis. During a normal cycle of walking the head moves up and down linearly. A simultaneous angular pitching motion of the head keeps it aligned toward an imaginary point in space at a distance of about one meter in front of a subject and along the line of march. This distance is called the head fixation distance. Head fixation distance provides the fundamental framework necessary for understanding the functional significance of the vestibular reflexes that couple head motion to eye motion. This framework facilitates the intelligent design of counter-measures for the effects of exposure to microgravity upon the vestibular ocular reflexes. Ideal trajectory analysis is a simple candidate countermeasure based upon quantifying body sway during repeated up and down stair stepping. It provides one number that estimates the body sway deviation from an ideal sinusoidal body sway trajectory normalized on the subject's height. This concept has been developed with NSBRI funding in less than one year. These findings are explained in more detail below. Compared to assessments of the vestibuo-ocular reflex, analysis of vestibular effects on locomotor function is relatively less well developed and quantified. We are improving this situation by applying methodologies such as nonlinear orbital stability to quantify responses and by using multivariate statistical approaches to link together the responses across separate tests. In this way we can exploit the information available and increase the ability to discriminate between normal and pathological responses. Measures of stability and orientation are compared to measures such as dynamic visual acuity and with balance function tests. The responses of normal human subjects and of patients having well documented pathophysiologies are being characterized. When these studies are completed, we should have a clearer idea about normal and abnormal patterns of eye, head, and body movements during locomotion and their stability in a wide range of environments. We plan eventually to use this information to validate the efficacy of candidate neurovestibular and neuromuscular rehabilitative techniques. Some representative studies made during this year are summarized.
Wall, Conrad., III↗
Reliability-Based Design of a Safety-Critical Automation System: A Case Study
In 1986, NASA funded a project to modernize the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels, including the replacement of obsolescent controls with a modern, automated distributed control system (DCS). The project effort on this system included an independent safety analysis (ISA) of the automation system. The purpose of the ISA was to evaluate the completeness of the hazard analyses which had already been performed on the Modernization Project. The ISA approach followed a tailoring of the risk assessment approach widely used on existing nuclear power plants. The tailoring of the nuclear industry oriented risk assessment approach to the automation system and its role in reliability-based design of the automation system is the subject of this paper.
Carroll, Carol W.↗
Inclusion of Radiation Environment Variability for Reliability Estimates for SiC Power MOSFETs
Variability of the solar energetic particle environment is investigated for single-event-burnout reliability of silicon-carbide power metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors. A probabilistic assessment of failure evaluates the benefits of de-rating voltage, shielding, and mission length. The Prediction of Solar particle Yields for Characterizing Integrating Circuits code is used to calculate a cumulative density function for the fluence of the environment. The lethal ion method is then used to determine what proportion of the environment will cause single-event-burnout. The operating voltage determines the lowest linear-energy-transfer particle that will cause single-event-burnout and that should be included in the environment distribution. The shielding and mission length also determine the final environment distribution of the mission fluence. Through calculating the reliability for different operating voltages, shielding, and mission length for a specific device, it is shown that shielding thickness and operating voltage have a large effect on reliability and can be traded off during the design.
Heavy ion↗
Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment
One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.
Launch Vehicle↗
The Challenger tragedy was caused by an Apollo mistake, terminating risk analysis
NASA’s view of risk changed between early Apollo and the Space Shuttle. Risk was a known serious problem at the beginning of Apollo and the risk estimates were disturbingly high. To avoid public concern, risk analysis was discontinued. Risk analysis was avoided in Shuttle, leading to an unnecessarily risky design. The immediate cause of the Challenger tragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in cold weather. The fundamental cause was the high risk of the Shuttle design. Before Challenger, management thought and testified that the probability of an accident was 1 in 100,000. After Challenger, Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a Shuttle failure. The recent Orion design uses the safer Apollo approach, with a hardened capsule, launch abort escape, and the crew placed above the rocket tanks and engines. During Apollo it was estimated that, “assuming all elements from propulsion to rendezvous and life support were done as well or better than ever before, that 30 astronauts would be lost before 3 were returned safely to the Earth.” The chance of astronaut survival was only 10%. After the Apollo 1 tragedy, the awareness of risk led to an intense focus on achieving safety. “The only possible explanation for the astonishing success – no losses in space and on time – was that every participant at every level in every area far exceeded the norm of human capabilities.” During Apollo, a NASA PRA found that the chance of success was “less than 5 percent.” The NASA Administrator felt that “the numbers could do irreparable harm,” and discontinued numerical risk assessment. This led to decreasing understanding of risk. The head of Apollo reliability and safety decided, “Statistics don’t count for anything,” and that risk is reduced by “attention taken in design.” The great and initially unexpected success of Apollo appeared to validate the neglect of PRA. Continuing to neglect the mathematical estimation of risk led Shuttle into a high risk design that produced tragic results. The initial design of the Shuttle emphasized increasing capability and reducing cost without analysis or even mention of risk. A retired NASA official stated, “some NASA people began to confuse desire with reality. … One result was to assess risk in terms of what was thought acceptable without regard for verifying the assessment. … Note that under such circumstances real risk management is shut out.” Not computing risk led to removing launch abort, removing crew escape, selecting less reliable Solid Rocket Boosters, placing the crew compartment next to the rocket boosters, and accepting more stressed shielding tile designs. Accepting these specific risks directly caused the shuttle disasters. The Challenger tragedy is frequently taught as a case of management failure. The focus is on the Challenger launch decision hours before, which is a dramatic example of bad management. However, the true cause of the Challenger disaster occurred decades earlier in the Apollo era. When the easily predictable failures occurred, failure investigations focused on how they might have been avoided. The Shuttle was cancelled after the space station was completed because of its high risk. The ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the choice by the Apollo-era NASA administrator to avoid a negative public reaction to realistic risk analysis.
Harry W. Jones↗
New Applications for the Testing and Visualization of Wireless Networks
Traditional techniques for examining wireless networks use physical link characteristics such as Signal-to-Noise (SNR) ratios to assess the performance of wireless networks. Such measurements may not be reliable indicators of available bandwidth. This work describes two new software applications developed at NASA Glenn Research Center for the investigation of wireless networks. GPSIPerf combines measurements of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) throughput with Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates to give users a map of wireless bandwidth for outdoor environments where a wireless infrastructure has been deployed. GPSIPerfView combines the data provided by GPSIPerf with high-resolution digital elevation maps (DEM) to help users visualize and assess the impact of elevation features on wireless networks in a given sample area. These applications were used to examine TCP throughput in several wireless network configurations at desert field sites near Hanksville, Utah during May of 2004. Use of GPSIPerf and GPSIPerfView provides a geographically referenced picture of the extent and deterioration of TCP throughput in tested wireless network configurations. GPSIPerf results from field-testing in Utah suggest that it can be useful in assessing other wireless network architectures, and may be useful to future human-robotic exploration missions.
Griffin, Robert I.↗
Communications satellite business ventures - Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies
An economic evaluation and planning procedure which assesses the effects of various policies on fixed satellite business ventures is described. The procedure is based on a stochastic financial simulation model, the Domsat II, which evaluates spacecraft reliability, market performance, and cost uncertainties. The application of the Domsat II model to the assessment of NASA's ion thrusters for on-orbit propulsion and GaAs solar cell technology is discussed. The effects of insurance rates and the self-insurance option on the financial performance of communication satellite business ventures are investigated. The selection of a transportation system for placing the satellites into GEO is analyzed.
Greenberg, J. S.↗
Accuracy of remotely sensed data: Sampling and analysis procedures
A review and update of the discrete multivariate analysis techniques used for accuracy assessment is given. A listing of the computer program written to implement these techniques is given. New work on evaluating accuracy assessment using Monte Carlo simulation with different sampling schemes is given. The results of matrices from the mapping effort of the San Juan National Forest is given. A method for estimating the sample size requirements for implementing the accuracy assessment procedures is given. A proposed method for determining the reliability of change detection between two maps of the same area produced at different times is given.
Congalton, R. G.↗
Further studies with data collected by NASA's airborne Doppler lidar in Oklahoma in 1981
Continued study of the lidar data collected in 1981 has resulted in significant new improvements in the analysis techniques reported by Bluestein et al. (1985) and McCaul (1985). Through comparison of fore- and aft-derived scalar fields of intensity and spectral width, the self-consistency of the lidar moment estimates was assessed. Reflectivity estimates were found to be quite stable and reliable, while spectral widths were prone to become noisy if signal to noise ratio (SNR) fell below 12 dB. In addition, spectral widths contained a significant component due to radial velocity gradients in areas along gust fronts, and these components were different along the fore and aft lines of sight. Significant improvement in agreement between the fore and aft fields of spectral width was obtained by estimating the radial velocity gradient component and then removing it from the raw measured widths to yield only the turbulent portion of the contribution to width. Additional analyses showed that lidar-derived vorticity estimates were consistent with several approximate models of vorticity growth along gust front zones, and with the hypothesis that Helmholtz instability could have been responsible for vortices seen along part of the gust front of 30 June 1981. Computations of divergence transverse to axes through an isolated cumulus congestus indicated that the strongest convergence tended to lie along an axis parallel to the congestus. This and the results of other additional analyses seem to suggest that the lidar winds do indeed accurately reflected the basic features of the real wind field.
Bluestein, H. B.↗
A perspective on future directions in aerospace propulsion system simulation
The design and development of aircraft engines is a lengthy and costly process using today's methodology. This is due, in large measure, to the fact that present methods rely heavily on experimental testing to verify the operability, performance, and structural integrity of components and systems. The potential exists for achieving significant speedups in the propulsion development process through increased use of computational techniques for simulation, analysis, and optimization. This paper outlines the concept and technology requirements for a Numerical Propulsion Simulation System (NPSS) that would provide capabilities to do interactive, multidisciplinary simulations of complete propulsion systems. By combining high performance computing hardware and software with state-of-the-art propulsion system models, the NPSS will permit the rapid calculation, assessment, and optimization of subcomponent, component, and system performance, durability, reliability and weight-before committing to building hardware.
Miller, Brent A.↗
Carbon dioxide and water vapor high temperature electrolysis
The design, fabrication, breadboard testing, and the data base obtained for solid oxide electrolysis systems that have applications for planetary manned missions and habitats are reviewed. The breadboard tested contains sixteen tubular cells in a closely packed bundle for the electrolysis of carbon dioxide and water vapor. The discussion covers energy requirements, volume, weight, and operational characteristics related to the measurement of the reactant and product gas compositions, temperature distribution along the electrolyzer tubular cells and through the bundle, and thermal energy losses. The reliability of individual cell performance in the bundle configuration is assessed.
Isenberg, Arnold O.↗
Lunar lander and return propulsion system trade study
This trade study was initiated at NASA/JSC in May 1992 to develop and evaluate main propulsion system alternatives to the reference First Lunar Outpost (FLO) lander and return-stage transportation system concept. Thirteen alternative configurations were developed to explore the impacts of various combinations of return stage propellants, using either pressure or pump-fed propulsion systems and various staging options. Besides two-stage vehicle concepts, the merits of single-stage and stage-and-a-half options were also assessed in combination with high-performance liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen propellants. Configurations using an integrated modular cryogenic engine were developed to assess potential improvements in packaging efficiency, mass performance, and system reliability compared to non-modular cryogenic designs. The selection process to evaluate the various designs was the analytic hierarchy process. The trade study showed that a pressure-fed MMH/N2O4 return stage and RL10-based lander stage is the best option for a 1999 launch. While results of this study are tailored to FLO needs, the design date, criteria, and selection methodology are applicable to the design of other crewed lunar landing and return vehicles.
Hurlbert, Eric A.↗
A Review of Transmission Diagnostics Research at NASA Lewis Research Center
This paper presents a summary of the transmission diagnostics research work conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center over the last four years. In 1990, the Transmission Health and Usage Monitoring Research Team at NASA Lewis conducted a survey to determine the critical needs of the diagnostics community. Survey results indicated that experimental verification of gear and bearing fault detection methods, improved fault detection in planetary systems, and damage magnitude assessment and prognostics research were all critical to a highly reliable health and usage monitoring system. In response to this, a variety of transmission fault detection methods were applied to experimentally obtained fatigue data. Failure modes of the fatigue data include a variety of gear pitting failures, tooth wear, tooth fracture, and bearing spalling failures. Overall results indicate that, of the gear fault detection techniques, no one method can successfully detect all possible failure modes. The more successful methods need to be integrated into a single more reliable detection technique. A recently developed method, NA4, in addition to being one of the more successful gear fault detection methods, was also found to exhibit damage magnitude estimation capabilities.
Zakajsek, James J.↗
Test load verification through strain data analysis
A traditional binding acceptance criterion on polycrystalline structures is the experimental verification of the ultimate factor of safety. At fracture, the induced strain is inelastic and about an order-of-magnitude greater than designed for maximum expected operational limit. At this extreme strained condition, the structure may rotate and displace at the applied verification load such as to unknowingly distort the load transfer into the static test article. Test may result in erroneously accepting a submarginal design or rejecting a reliable one. A technique was developed to identify, monitor, and assess the load transmission error through two back-to-back surface-measured strain data. The technique is programmed for expediency and convenience. Though the method was developed to support affordable aerostructures, the method is also applicable for most high-performance air and surface transportation structural systems.
Verderaime, V.↗
Non-Micropipe Dislocations in 4H-SiC Devices: Electrical Properties and Device Technology Implications
It is well-known that SiC wafer quality deficiencies are delaying the realization of outstandingly superior 4H-SiC power electronics. While efforts to date have centered on eradicating micropipes (i.e., hollow core super-screw dislocations with Burgers vectors greater than or equal to 2c), 4H-SiC wafers and epilayers also contain elementary screw dislocations (i.e., Burgers vector = 1c with no hollow core) in densities on the order of thousands per sq cm, nearly 100-fold micropipe densities. While not nearly as detrimental to SiC device performance as micropipes, it has recently been demonstrated that elementary screw dislocations somewhat degrade the reverse leakage and breakdown properties of 4H-SiC p(+)n diodes. Diodes containing elementary screw dislocations exhibited a 5% to 35% reduction in breakdown voltage, higher pre-breakdown reverse leakage current, softer reverse breakdown I-V knee, and microplasmic breakdown current filaments that were non-catastrophic as measured under high series resistance biasing. This paper details continuing experimental and theoretical investigations into the electrical properties of 4H-SiC elementary screw dislocations. The nonuniform breakdown behavior of 4H-SiC p'n junctions containing elementary screw dislocations exhibits interesting physical parallels with nonuniform breakdown phenomena previously observed in other semiconductor materials. Based upon experimentally observed dislocation-assisted breakdown, a re-assessment of well-known physical models relating power device reliability to junction breakdown has been undertaken for 4H-SiC. The potential impact of these elementary screw dislocation defects on the performance and reliability of various 4H-SiC device technologies being developed for high-power applications will be discussed.
Neudeck, Philip G.↗
Technology Maturity Towards Highly Reusable Space Transportation Goals
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) has advanced key propulsion and launch vehicle systems technologies towards enabling the concepts identified by the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) Study as having significant potential for reducing the cost of access to space. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) manages the ASTP for the NASA Aero-Space Technology Enterprise. The HRST Study was conducted from 1995 through 1997 to evaluated launch concepts with the potential to reduce launch cost to $100 to $200 per pound of payload to low Earth orbit in the 2016 to 2022 timeframe. The HRST represents a generation of launch vehicles beyond the Lockheed-Martin VentureStar concept with a goal of another factor of ten reduction in launch cost below the next generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. Several concepts were developed and evaluated during the initial HRST studies. At the completion of the concept development phase in 1997, four task forces were formed to integrate the results of the study. These task forces were System Concept Definition, Operations Assessment. Cost Assessment and Technology Assessment. The Operations Assessment task force published its final report in November 1998. The Operations Assessment task force evaluated both single stage to orbit (SSTO) and two-stage to orbit (TSTO) concepts. SSTO concepts included horizontal takeoff and horizontal landing, vertical takeoff and vertical landing and vertical takeoff and horizontal landing. Horizontally launched concepts including launch assist options. SSTO concepts included airbreathing and all rocket as well as combination propulsion systems. The Operations Assessment considered the significance of performance margin, flight rate capability, reliability, launch assist, design optimization and technology development. These studies serve as a guide for the ASTP to prioritize technology development towards future highly reusable launch systems. Although the ASTP supports the development of technology that is focused at a near term fully reusable launch vehicle, the core of the technology development is looking ahead to future generations of launch vehicles that will enable dramatic growth in civil and commercial space enterprise. The primary focus of the paper is to status the key enabling technologies including rocket based combined cycle (RBCC) propulsion, magnetic launch assist, long life, low weight rocket propulsion, integral hot structures. robust thermal protection systems and integrated vehicle health management. The ASTP technology roadmap is leading rapidly towards system demonstration and eventual future X vehicle flight demonstrations.
Lyles, Garry↗