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SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comprehensive study of non-adaptive and residual-based adaptive sampling for physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have shown to be effective tools for solving both forward and inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs). PINNs embed the PDEs into the loss of the neural network using automatic differentiation, and this PDE loss is evaluated at a set of scattered spatio-temporal points (called residual points). The location and distribution of these residual points are highly important to the performance of PINNs. However, in the existing studies on PINNs, only a few simple residual point sampling methods have mainly been used. Here, we present a comprehensive study of two categories of sampling for PINNs: non-adaptive uniform sampling and adaptive nonuniform sampling. We consider six uniform sampling methods, including (1) equispaced uniform grid, (2) uniformly random sampling, (3) Latin hypercube sampling, (4) Halton sequence, (5) Hammersley sequence, and (6) Sobol sequence. We also consider a resampling strategy for uniform sampling. To improve the sampling efficiency and the accuracy of PINNs, we propose two new residual-based adaptive sampling methods: residual-based adaptive distribution (RAD) and residual-based adaptive refinement with distribution (RAR-D), which dynamically improve the distribution of residual points based on the PDE residuals during training. Hence, we have considered a total of 10 different sampling methods, including six non-adaptive uniform sampling, uniform sampling with resampling, two proposed adaptive sampling, and an existing adaptive sampling. We extensively tested the performance of these sampling methods for four forward problems and two inverse problems in many setups. Our numerical results presented in this study are summarized from more than 6000 simulations of PINNs. Here, we show that the proposed adaptive sampling methods of RAD and RAR-D significantly improve the accuracy of PINNs with fewer residual points for both forward and inverse problems. Furthermore, the results obtained in this study can also be used as a practical guideline in choosing sampling methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aligned and Unaligned Coherence: A New Diagnostic Tool

The study of combustion noise from turbofan engines has become important again as the noise from other sources like the fan and jet are reduced. A method has been developed to help identify combustion noise spectra using an aligned and unaligned coherence technique. When used with the well known three signal coherent power method and coherent power method it provides new information by separating tonal information from random process information. Examples are presented showing the underlying tonal structure which is buried under broadband noise and jet noise. The method is applied to data from a Pratt and Whitney PW4098 turbofan engine.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite elements for Matérn-type random fields: Uncertainty in computational mechanics and design optimization

This work highlights an approach for incorporating realistic uncertainties into scientific computing workflows based on finite elements, focusing on prevalent applications in computational mechanics and design optimization. We leverage Matérn-type Gaussian random fields (GRFs) generated using the SPDE method to model aleatoric uncertainties, including environmental influences, variating material properties, and geometric ambiguities. Our focus lies on delivering practical GRF realizations that accurately capture imperfections and variations and understanding how they impact the predictions of computational models as well as the shape and topology of optimized designs. Here we describe a numerical algorithm based on solving a generalized SPDE to sample GRFs on arbitrary meshed domains. The algorithm leverages established techniques and integrates seamlessly with the open-source finite element library MFEM and associated scientific computing workflows, like those found in industrial and national laboratory settings. Our solver scales efficiently for large-scale problems and supports various domain types, including surfaces and embedded manifolds. We showcase its versatility through biomechanics and topology optimization applications, emphasizing the potential to influence these domains. The flexibility and efficiency of SPDE-based GRF generation empowers us to run large-scale optimization problems on 2D and 3D domains, including finding optimized designs on embedded surfaces, and to generate design features and topologies beyond the reach of conventional techniques. Moreover, these capabilities allow us to model and quantify geometric uncertainties on reconstructed submanifolds, such as the interpolated surfaces of cerebral aneurysms provided by postprocessing CT scans. In addition to offering benefits in these specific domains, the proposed techniques transcend specific applications and generalize to arbitrary forward and backward problems in uncertainty quantification involving finite elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crystallographic variant mapping using precession electron diffraction data

In this work, we developed three methods to map crystallographic variants of samples at the nanoscale by analyzing precession electron diffraction data using a high-temperature shape memory alloy and a VO2 thin film on sapphire as the model systems. The three methods are (I) a user-selecting-reference pattern approach, (II) an algorithm-selecting-reference-pattern approach, and (III) a k-means approach. In the first two approaches, Euclidean distance, Cosine, and Structural Similarity (SSIM) algorithms were assessed for the diffraction pattern similarity quantification. We demonstrated that the Euclidean distance and SSIM methods outperform the Cosine algorithm. We further revealed that the random noise in the diffraction data can dramatically affect similarity quantification. Denoising processes could improve the crystallographic mapping quality. With the three methods mentioned above, we were able to map the crystallographic variants in different materials systems, thus enabling fast variant number quantification and clear variant distribution visualization. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are also discussed. We expect these methods to benefit researchers who work on martensitic materials, in which the variant information is critical to understand their properties and functionalities.

Crystallographic variant mapping↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Random-Forest Cloud-Regime Classification Model Based on Surface Radiation and Cloud Products

Various methods have been developed to characterize cloud type, otherwise referred to as cloud regime. These include manual sky observations, combining radiative and cloud vertical properties observed from satellite, surface-based remote sensing, and digital processing of sky imagers. While each method has inherent advantages and disadvantages, none of these cloud-typing methods actually includes measurements of surface shortwave or longwave radiative fluxes. Here, a method that relies upon detailed, surface-based radiation and cloud measurements and derived data products to train a random-forest machine-learning cloud classification model is introduced. Measurements from five years of data from the ARM Southern Great Plains site were compiled to train and independently evaluate the model classification performance. A cloud-type accuracy of approximately 80% using the random-forest classifier reveals that the model is well suited to predict climatological cloud properties. Furthermore, an analysis of the cloud-type misclassifications is performed. While physical cloud types may be misreported, the shortwave radiative signatures are similar between misclassified cloud types. From this, we assert that the cloud-regime model has the capacity to successfully differentiate clouds with comparable cloud–radiative interactions. Therefore, we conclude that the model can provide useful cloud-property information for fundamental cloud studies, inform renewable energy studies, and be a tool for numerical model evaluation and parameterization improvement, among many other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Algorithm for Characterization of Fiber Aggregation in Composite Microstructures

Composite structures are susceptible to localized flaws, or variability, that drive global failure. To capture this variance, a multiscale model needs to be introduced that not only accurately represents the statistical nature of the composite microstructure but is also efficient. At the microscale, fiber aggregation creates local stress concentrations, where failure is likely to occur sooner than expected. A method of rapid microstructure generation, in conjunction with cluster characterization, is examined to develop accurate reproductions of 2D composite cross-sections. Parameterization of shape and size of fiber clusters is used to characterize representative volume elements. The discrete element method is used to generate pseudo-microstructures. The clustering parameters from the pseudo- and actual microstructure arrangements (obtained from micrographs) can be compared to determine the validity of the representative volume element generated with the discrete element method. Results show a promising approach to evaluating randomness of fiber distributions and how to accurately recreate microstructures for strength analysis.

Carbon fiber↗
NASA NTRS2005

Nonlinear Reduced Order Random Response Analysis of Structures With Shallow Curvature

The goal of this investigation is to further develop nonlinear modal numerical simulation methods for application to geometrically nonlinear response of structures with shallow curvature under random loadings. For reduced order analysis, the modal basis selection must be capable of reflecting the coupling in both the linear and nonlinear stiffness. For the symmetric shallow arch under consideration, four categories of modal basis functions are defined. Those having symmetric transverse displacements (ST modes) can be designated as transverse dominated (ST-T) modes and in-plane dominated (ST-I) modes. Those having anti-symmetric transverse displacements (AT modes) can similarly be designated as transverse dominated (AT-T) modes and in-plane dominated (AT-I) modes. The response of an aluminum arch under a uniformly distributed transverse random loading is investigated. Results from nonlinear modal simulations made using various modal bases are compared with those obtained from a numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. While inclusion of ST-T modes is important for all response regimes, it is found that the ST-I modes become increasingly important in the nonlinear response regime, and that AT-T and AT-I modes are critical in the autoparametric regime.

Przekop, Adam↗
NASA NTRS2006

Nonlinear Reduced Order Random Response Analysis of Structures with Shallow Curvature

The goal of this investigation is to further develop nonlinear modal numerical simulation methods for application to geometrically nonlinear response of structures with shallow curvature under random loadings. For reduced order analysis, the modal basis selection must be capable of reflecting the coupling in both the linear and nonlinear stiffness. For the symmetric shallow arch under consideration, four categories of modal basis functions are defined. Those having symmetric transverse displacements (ST modes) can be designated as transverse dominated (ST-T) modes and in-plane dominated (ST-I) modes. Those having anti-symmetric transverse displacements (AT modes) can similarly be designated as transverse dominated (AT-T) modes and in-plane dominated (AT-I) modes. The response of an aluminum arch under a uniformly distributed transverse random loading is investigated. Results from nonlinear modal simulations made using various modal bases are compared with those obtained from a numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. While inclusion of ST-T modes is important for all response regimes, it is found that the ST-I modes become increasingly important in the nonlinear response regime, and that AT-T and AT-I modes are critical in the autoparametric regime.

Przekop, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uniform Subspace Correction Preconditioners for Discontinuous Galerkin Methods with hp-Refinement

In this paper, we develop subspace correction preconditioners for discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretizations of elliptic problems with hp-refinement. These preconditioners are based on the decomposition of the DG finite element space into a conforming subspace, and a set of small nonconforming edge spaces. The conforming subspace is preconditioned using a matrix-free low-order refined technique, which in this work, we extend to the hp-refinement context using a variational restriction approach. The condition number of the resulting linear system is independent of the granularity of the mesh h, and the degree of the polynomial approximation p. The method is amenable to use with meshes of any degree of irregularity and arbitrary distribution of polynomial degrees. Furthermore, numerical examples are shown on several test cases involving adaptively and randomly refined meshes, using both the symmetric interior penalty method and the second method of Bassi and Rebay (BR2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1981

An analytic technique for statistically modeling random atomic clock errors in estimation

Minimum variance estimation requires that the statistics of random observation errors be modeled properly. If measurements are derived through the use of atomic frequency standards, then one source of error affecting the observable is random fluctuation in frequency. This is the case, for example, with range and integrated Doppler measurements from satellites of the Global Positioning and baseline determination for geodynamic applications. An analytic method is presented which approximates the statistics of this random process. The procedure starts with a model of the Allan variance for a particular oscillator and develops the statistics of range and integrated Doppler measurements. A series of five first order Markov processes is used to approximate the power spectral density obtained from the Allan variance.

Fell, P. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven predictive probability density function control of fiber length stochastic distribution shaping in refining process

Pulp is the most important raw material in paper in paper industries, whose Fiber Length Stochastic Distribution (FLSD) shaping directly determines the energy consumption and paper quality of the subsequent papermaking processes. However, the mean and variance are insufficient to describe the output FLSD shaping, which display non-Gaussian distribution properties. Therefore, the traditional control, method based on the mean and variance of fiber length is difficult to control the FLSD shaping effectively. In this paper, a novel data-driven predictive probability density function (PDF) control method is proposed for output FLSD shaping in refining process. Primarily, in order to improve the approximation accuracy of the PDF employing RBF neural network, the parameters (center value and width) of each RBF basis functions are tuned via utilizing iterative learning control (ILC) law, and the corresponding estimations of weights law can be obtained. Secondly, considering that the conventional linear model of weights vector has drawbacks of low accuracy and weak generalization ability, random vector functional link networks (RVFLNs) based data driven nonlinear modelling method is employed to characterize the prediction model between the input variables and weights vector. Finally, in order to reduce the randomness of the output FLSD, a minimum entropy control method under mean constraint is employed to design the predictive PDF controller for the output FLSD shaping with the help of the established nonlinear stochastic distribution model. Both simulations and experiments are given to illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

Probability debsity function, Fiber length distrib↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A hybrid calibration approach to Hertz-type contact parameters for discrete element models

This study aims at providing a hybrid calibration framework to estimate Hertz-type contact parameters (particle-scale shear modulus and Poisson ratio) for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional discrete element modelling (DEM). On the basis of statistically isotropic granular packings, a set of analytical formulae between macroscopic material parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) and particle-scale Hertz-type contact parameters for granular systems are derived under small-strain isotropic stress conditions. However, the derived analytical solutions are only estimated values for general models. By viewing each DEM modelling as an implicit mathematical function taking the particle-level parameters as independent variables and employing the derived analytical solutions as the initial input parameters, an automatic iterative scheme is proposed to obtain the calibrated parameters with higher accuracies. Considering highly nonlinear features and discontinuities of the macro-micro relationship in Hertz-based discrete element models, the adaptive moment estimation algorithm is adopted in this study because of its capacity of dealing with noise gradients of cost functions. Here, the proposed method is validated with several numerical cases including randomly distributed monodisperse and polydisperse packings. Noticeable improvements in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy have been made.

Constitutive law↗
DOE OSTI2021

Xanthohumol Microbiome and Signature in Healthy Adults (the XMaS Trial): Safety and Tolerability Results of a Phase I Triple-Masked, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial

Scope Xanthohumol, a prenylflavonoid from hops, has been extensively studied preclinically but has undergone limited research in human subjects. A triple-masked, placebo-controlled phase I clinical trial was conducted to examine the safety and tolerability of xanthohumol. Methods and results Thirty healthy volunteers were randomized to 24?mg/day xanthohumol (99.8% pure) or placebo for eight weeks. Comprehensive metabolic panels, complete blood counts, body weight, vital signs, and health-related quality of life questionnaires were assessed every two weeks. Participants were interviewed for adverse events (AEs) throughout the trial. Thirteen of 14 (93%) and 14 of 16 (88%) participants completed the trial in Group A and B respectively. There were no withdrawals due to AEs. There were no clinically relevant, between-group differences in laboratory biomarkers, body weight, vital signs, or health-related quality of life. There were no severe or FDA-defined serious AEs, but non-serious AEs were documented in both Group A (n=42) and Group B (n=58). Conclusion Over an eight-week period, 24 mg daily xanthohumol was safe and well-tolerated by healthy adults.

Langley, Blake↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗