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At least 649 records · Page 36

An Upgrade Path for the Fermilab Accelerator Complex

The completion of the PIP-II project and its superconducting linear accelerator will provide up to 1.2 MW of beam power to the LBNF/DUNE facility for neutrino physics. It will also be able to produce high-power beams directly from the linac that can be used for lower-energy particle physics experiments as well, such as directing beam toward the Muon Campus at Fermilab for example. Any further significant upgrade of the beam power to DUNE, however, will be impeded by the limitations of the present Booster synchrotron at the facility. To increase the power to DUNE by a factor of two would require a new accelerator arrangement to feed the Main Injector that does not include the Booster. In what follows, a path toward upgrading the Fermilab accelerator complex to bring the beam power for DUNE to 2.4 MW is presented, using a new rapid-cycling synchrotron plus an energy upgrade to the PIP-II linac. The path includes the ability to instigate a new lower-energy, very high-power beam delivery system for experiments that can address much of the science program presented by the Booster Replacement Science Working Group. It also allows for the future possibility to go beyond 2.4 MW up to roughly 4 MW from the Main Injector.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

wtDigiTwin (Wind Turbine Digital Twin) [SWR-21-15]

This wind turbine digital twin software (wtDigiTwin) provides a digital twin solution for wind turbine applications. The focus of wtDigiTwin is to estimate loads, motions and environmental conditions for an operating wind turbine. The program uses supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements as inputs, together with a wind turbine model. The wind industry is currently challenged by the high cost of operation and maintenance. These costs could be mitigated if component failures are predicted, but such predictions are difficult unless the turbines are equipped with expensive measuring devices. The alternative is to use a digital twin such as wtDigiTwin to estimate the necessary signals. wtDigiTwin can perform online prediction of signals that are otherwise not measured, using a limited set of reliable measurements and a physics-based model. The predicted signals can be used in applications that have direct cost benefits: 1) real-time estimation of the fatigue consumption of key components of the wind turbine; 2) root cause analyses and failure detections ; 3) lifetime reassessments ; 4) improvements to follow-on designs. The current version provides examples to estimate wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and tower loads on an onshore wind turbine using the following measurements tower top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The model combines a linear state-space model, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The state space model is obtained either using OpenFAST linearizations, or using the yams package provided with the software.

Branlard, Emmanuel↗

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Considerations for Defining G-Values for Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

Sealed-canister dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) generated by research reactors is an alternative to current storage and disposition pathways as directed by the U.S. Department of Energy. The major challenge faced for this storage approach is radiolytic H 2 generation, including from the aluminum (oxy)hydroxide layers on the surface of ASNF. Experimental and modeling activities have been carried out to characterize the radiolytic yield as part of a DOE-sponsored research program to develop the technical basis for ASNF dry storage. The G-value is a commonly way to report results of radiolysis testing and is defined as the radiolytic yield of a species (e.g. molecular hydrogen) per unit radiation energy deposited into the material system. An independent technical review of the ASNF dry storage technical basis performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory raised questions about differences in G-value definitions used for experiments on ASNF surrogates consisting of aluminum samples with adherent (oxy)hydroxides compared to G-values reported in prior literature and how the magnitudes compared between different studies. Material systems resembling ASNF pose complications for measuring/defining G-values to predict the evolution of H 2 in a sealed canister, including i) accounting for radiolytic yields potentially arising from multiple sources, i.e., residual free (vapor), physisorbed, and chemisorbed/chemically bound waters; ii) deciding what portions of the multi-material system to include in the absorbed energy (radiation dose) calculation, considering possible energy exchange between materials as well as measurement limitations, and iii) capturing variations in G-value associated with non-linear yield vs. dose curves and/or dependence on the cover gas. This report summarizes previous literature information on radiolytic H 2 generation and associated G-values from mixed-material systems (generally oxides in contact with water or organic compounds) and from (oxy)hydroxides/hydrates to compare with the definitions and values for ASNF surrogate samples containing adherent aluminum (oxy)hydroxides.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Robust Molecular Predictive Methods for Novel Polymer Discovery and Applications

Polymeric materials are ubiquitous in modern society and they play an instrumental role in almost all industries, undoubtedly including the energy and environment sectors. Increased demand of energy and awareness to sustainability both necessitates the development of novel polymers with enhanced properties. Unfortunately, their structural and behavioral complexity render such discovery challenging and impeded. To address this problem, scientists are developing various computational modeling techniques and leveraging their power to depict the relationship between structural characteristics of polymers and their properties (such as rheological behaviors), and use such prediction to guide the design and syntheses of novel polymeric materials with enhanced performances. Unfortunately, predicting the relationships between polymer structure and composition with rheological properties via atomistic modeling is still a major challenge because of the extended time and length scales involved. Studying dynamic shear viscosity and linear viscoelasticity using molecular models requires capabilities that have been elusive, including representation of large molecular weight chains with an effective internal scale capable of describing entanglement, shear-rates that are in the s-1 scale with accurate quantitative stresses, and chemically-realistic combinations of both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Motivated by these unmet challenges, the overall technical objective of this DOE-STTR Phase II project is to develop robust molecular predictive methods for advanced polymer discovery and applications and especially for designing and demonstrating the “smart” polymer-based waterflooding enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. In particular, we apply state-of-the-art molecular modeling methods developed by our academic partner, Materials Stimulation Center (MSC) at California Institute of Technology (Caltech), to facilitate and accelerate the experimental discovery processes. During the Phase I of this project, we had focused on development and demonstration of the molecular modeling methods to describe rheological properties of non-Newtonian polymer fluids, and to improve our fundamental understandings of shear-thickening mechanism and kinetics. In Phase II, we further apply the theoretical models to guide our experimental programs to improve our design of smart rheology modifier (SRM) polymers and their optimization for EOR. Specifically, we have three objectives in the Phase II study: (1) to further improve out computational modeling methods, coupling with the advanced machine learning algorithms; (2) to develop cost-effective and efficient SRM-flooding process suitable for EOR applications under typical reservoir conditions; and (3) to further explore the application of our molecular predictive models for innovative material discovery in other industrial applications. The recent development of our multiscale predictive framework allows the successful prediction of rheological properties from the chemical structure for polymers of experimentally relevant molecular weights, and provides an in-silico machine learning engine for screening novel compositions and structures with optimized non-Newtonian response, required for both shear-thinning and shear-thickening applications. Our framework provides: (1) procedures and tools for systematic coarsening from atomistic models and reverse mapping of coarse-grain models to atomistic, (2) unique ab initio methods to characterize the atomistic origin of colloidal and interfacial interactions and phenomena, (3) systematic structure and composition builders based on practical descriptors that drive rheological changes in polymer melts and diluted polymer mixtures, (4) a rheological properties engine capable of predicting viscosity in the zero-shear limit and under realistic dynamic conditions (for shear-rates commensurate with experiments) for large heterogeneous systems, (5) coarse-grain force fields with improved non-bond descriptions based on accurate quantum mechanics, (6) an in-silico screening machine learning engine that feeds from the systematic model builders to cover the descriptors search space, computes the rheological properties from converged trajectories spanning sub-milliseconds and ranks them for each structure/composition using an automated viscosity-vs-shear rate fitness function that can be tuned for shear-thickening, shear-thinning and other rheological responses.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Computationally Efficient Control Co-Design Optimization Framework with Mixed-Fidelity Fluid and Structure Analysis: OpenTurbineCoDe (OTCD) - ARPA-E ATLANTIS Phase I Project (Final Technical Report)

The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Aerodynamic Turbines Lighter and Afloat with Nautical Technologies and Integrated Servo-control (ATLANTIS) Program is to develop new technologies for floating offshore wind turbines, or wind farms, using the discipline of control co-design (CCD.) In this context, our goal is to develop a computationally efficient optimization framework for design of floating offshore wind turbines. Our specific aim is to utilize high-fidelity structural, aerodynamic, aero-structural tools, and to derive control-oriented reduced- or low-order models directly from the high-fidelity tools. We proposed a mixed-fidelity modeling approach which means that we are also using low- and mid-fidelity tools when necessary. This research is conducted by a multidisciplinary team consisting of Rutgers University, University of Michigan, Brigham Young University, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The computational framework, called OpenTurbineCoDe, is designed to integrate, where possible, traditional structural, aerodynamic, aeroelastic models (e.g., OpenFAST) and advanced control algorithms with higher fidelity simulation tools including Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) solvers, and three-dimensional structural finite element solvers. All the high-fidelity tools used in this research provide numerically exact gradients to facilitate both efficient optimization and local linearization for control implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

AENET–LAMMPS and AENET–TINKER : Interfaces for accurate and efficient molecular dynamics simulations with machine learning potentials

Machine-learning potentials (MLPs) trained on data from quantum-mechanics based first-principles methods can approach the accuracy of the reference method at a fraction of the computational cost. To facilitate efficient MLP-based molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations, an integration of the MLPs with sampling software is needed. Here, we develop two interfaces that link the atomic energy network (ænet) MLP package with the popular sampling packages TINKER and LAMMPS. The three packages, ænet, TINKER, and LAMMPS, are free and open-source software that enable, in combination, accurate simulations of large and complex systems with low computational cost that scales linearly with the number of atoms. Scaling tests show that the parallel efficiency of the ænet–TINKER interface is nearly optimal but is limited to shared-memory systems. The ænet–LAMMPS interface achieves excellent parallel efficiency on highly parallel distributed memory systems and benefits from the highly optimized neighbor list implemented in LAMMPS. We demonstrate the utility of the two MLP interfaces for two relevant example applications: the investigation of diffusion phenomena in liquid water and the equilibration of nanostructured amorphous battery materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Phonon-informed Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) Optimization for Crystalline Graphite and Beryllium Metal

Fast neutrons born from fission lose energy through scattering interactions in the process of slowing-down. As neutrons thermalize to the order of $k$ $b$ $T$ (where $k$ $b$ is the Boltzmann constant, and $T$ is the temperature of the medium), their de Broglie wavelength and energy approaches the order of inter-atomic spacing and quantized lattice vibrations, i.e., phonons. At thermal energies, the thermal scattering law (TSL), i.e., $S$($α, β$), captures crystal binding contributions to the total reaction rate, or cross section. This dimensionless material property describes the energy ($β$) and momentum ($α$) exchanges available in a medium. Currently, $S$($α, β$) is evaluated in the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH) code for discrete inputs and stored as ENDF/B File 7 for 0-phonon elastic (MT 2) and n-phonon inelastic (MT 4) processes. Further processing recasts $S$($α, β$) into cumulative distribution functions for sampling post-collision scattering kinematics. In practice, interpolation schemes are employed to access data between tabulated values. An improvement to this juncture of the nuclear data pipeline is supplying cross sections on-the-fly (OTF), as has been developed for the un-resolved resonance region to minimize non-physical interpolation errors. This capability may improve simulation accuracy for accident and transient analyses, where rapidly varying changes in temperature and pressure are difficult to predict beforehand. To do so, deep artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be employed which collapse non-linear, complex data into a lightweight dictionary of neural weights and biases. This has been successfully demonstrated for the hydrogen in light water $S$($α, β$) dataset in the form of a Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) module. In this work, the NeTS framework is extended to consider the impact of material-dependent dynamical features on optimal neural pre-processing and architecture design decisions, such as number of neurons per hidden layer, residual skip connections and neural depth. New NeTS modules for crystalline graphite and beryllium metal illuminate a novel correlation between dynamical nonlinearity and optimal neural parametrization when deploying $S$($α, β$) on-the-fly.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improving Self-Driving Labs: Quantifying System-Level Experiment Repeatability and Broadening Instrument-Level Compatibility

Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) is a self-driving laboratory (SDL) which performs wet-lab science with peptide-lanthanide combinations in an automated and, ultimately, an autonomous manner to aid in soil analysis for domestic lithium mining. Autonomous experimentation involves automated experimentation, experiment planning, and active learning. MARS consists of a 6-axis robotic arm (UR5e) on a linear rail, pipette robots (Opentrons 2), and microplate readers. These components transport, operate on, and collect data with chemical solutions in standard labware. For effective autonomy, MARS must perform system-level labware operations repeatably, plan experiments autonomously, and be portable between research-domains. Repeatability is evaluated by labware placement precision, such that future operations can properly locate labware, as well as the elapsed time, so that low variance mean estimates of experiment duration can inform high-level researcher decision making. Autonomous experiment planning is the next step to decouple experimentation from human management; however, there is a conflict between the ideal system-level experiment goals and the constraints imposed by instruments’ limitations. Sub-domain portability is a long-term goal to extend MARS’ research beyond the chemistry of peptide-lanthanide binding to other sub-domains without having to invest significant overhead to system retrofitting. To address these goals, we manually trained the robotic arm labware placement and modelled statistical failurerate and uncertainty Additionally, we benchmarked the duration and variance of each experiment sub-operation as a heuristic for research decision making. Next, we use a parameterized geometric program (PGP) approach to design experiments that optimize system-level objectives and satisfy instrument-level constraints. Lastly, we proposed a Python framework to maximize MARS’ extensibility to other scientific sub-domains through a JSON-based experiment specification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Domain-decomposition nonlinear manifold reduced order model

This software combines nonlinear-manifold reduced order models (NM-ROMs) with domain decomposition (DD) techniques. NM-ROMs, which utilize a shallow, sparse autoencoder trained with full order model (FOM) snapshot data, approximate the FOM state on a nonlinear manifold. These models offer advantages over linear-subspace ROMs (LS-ROMs) particularly in scenarios with slowly decaying Kolmogorov n-width. However, the training of NM-ROMs involves a number of parameters that scale with the size of the FOM, and storing high-dimensional FOM snapshots can significantly increase the cost of ROM training for extreme-scale problems. To mitigate these costs, the software employs DD to partition the FOM into smaller subdomains, computes NM-ROMs for each, and then integrates these to form a global NM-ROM. This strategy offers multiple benefits: it enables parallel training of subdomain NM-ROMs, reduces the number of parameters needed, decreases the dimensional requirements of subdomain FOM training data, and allows for customization to the unique characteristics of each FOM subdomain. The use of a shallow, sparse autoencoder architecture in each subdomain NM-ROM facilitates the application of hyper-reduction (HR), simplifying the nonlinear complexities and enhancing computational speed. This software marks the inaugural application of NM-ROM combined with HR to a DD problem. It features an algebraic DD reformulation of the FOM, training of NM-ROMs with HR for each subdomain, and employs a sequential quadratic programming (SQP) solver for the evaluation of the coupled global NMROM. The effectiveness of the DD NM-ROM with HR is numerically demonstrated on the 2D steady-state Burgers' equation, showing an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy over the DD LS-ROM with HR.

Diaz, AlejandroN↗

Metagenome-assembled genomes from Wind River Basin floodplain sediments Riverton, Wyoming site (August 2015)

Microorganisms play a key role in cycling nutrients and contaminants in the terrestrial environment depending on their genetic potential. Here we present metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community in floodplain sediment samples taken August 29, 2015 at a location (KB1) close to DOE Legacy Management well 855 at the Riverton, Wyoming floodplain site in the Wind River Basin (WRB). The groundwater at this site exhibits persistent U, Mo, and sulfate plumes and is one of the field sites in focus for the SLAC Groundwater Quality SFA program. Sediment samples from a deep soil pit were collected from 0 to 234 cm depth below surface at discrete depths every ~10-20 cm for microbial analyses. 13 metagenomes were sequenced through JGI and can be found under Gold sequencing project: Gs0131241. Metagenomes were assembled, binned, and refined using metawrap to generate MAGs (>50% complete and < 10% contamination based on checkM scores).This dataset includes a zip file of 2216 MAG fasta files and a csv file with quality, taxonomic classification (GTDB RS220), and metagenome accessions for MAGs. This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying insects, clouds, and precipitation using vertically pointing polarimetric radar Doppler velocity spectra

Abstract. This study presents a method to identify and distinguish insects, clouds, and precipitation in 35 GHz (Ka-band) vertically pointing polarimetric radar Doppler velocity power spectra and then produce masks indicating the occurrence of hydrometeors (i.e., clouds or precipitation) and insects at each range gate. The polarimetric radar used in this study transmits a linear polarized wave and receives signals in collinear (CoPol) and cross-linear (XPol) polarized channels. The measured CoPol and XPol Doppler velocity spectra are used to calculate linear depolarization ratio (LDR) spectra. The insect–hydrometeor discrimination method uses CoPol and XPol spectral information in two separate algorithms with their spectral results merged and then filtered into single value products at each range gate. The first algorithm discriminates between insects and clouds in the CoPol Doppler velocity power spectra based on the spectra texture, or spectra roughness, which varies due to the scattering characteristics of insects vs. cloud particles. The second algorithm distinguishes insects from raindrops and ice particles by exploiting the larger Doppler velocity spectra LDR produced by asymmetric insects. Since XPol power return is always less than CoPol power return for the same target (i.e., insect or hydrometeor), fewer insects and hydrometeors are detected in the LDR algorithm than the CoPol algorithm, which drives the need for a CoPol based algorithm. After performing both CoPol and LDR detection algorithms, regions of insect and hydrometeor scattering from both algorithms are combined in the Doppler velocity spectra domain and then filtered to produce a binary hydrometeor mask indicating the occurrence of cloud, raindrops, or ice particles at each range gate. Forty-seven summertime days were processed with the insect–hydrometeor discrimination method using US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Ka-band zenith pointing radar observations in northern Oklahoma, USA. For these 47 d, over 70 % of the hydrometeor mask column bottoms were within ±100 m of simultaneous ceilometer cloud base heights. All datasets and images are available to the public on the DOE ARM repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A fast and accurate domain decomposition nonlinear manifold reduced order model

Here, this paper integrates nonlinear-manifold reduced order models (NM-ROMs) with domain decomposition (DD). NM ROMs approximate the full order model (FOM) state in a nonlinear-manifold by training a shallow, sparse autoencoder using FOM snapshot data. These NM-ROMs can be advantageous over linear-subspace ROMs (LS-ROMs) for problems with slowly decaying Kolmogorov n-width. However, the number of NM-ROM parameters that need to be trained scales with the size of the FOM. Moreover, for “extreme-scale” problems, the storage of high-dimensional FOM snapshots alone can make ROM training expensive. To alleviate the training cost, this paper applies DD to the FOM, computes NM-ROMs on each subdomain, and couples them to obtain a global NM-ROM. This approach has several advantages: Subdomain NM-ROMs can be trained in parallel, involve fewer parameters to be trained than global NM-ROMs, require smaller subdomain FOM dimensional training data, and can be tailored to subdomain specific features of the FOM. The shallow, sparse architecture of the autoencoder used in each subdomain NM-ROM allows application of hyper-reduction (HR), reducing the complexity caused by nonlinearity and yielding computational speedup of the NM-ROM. This paper provides the first application of NM-ROM (with HR) to a DD problem. In particular, this paper details an algebraic DD reformulation of the FOM, training a NM-ROM with HR for each sub domain, and a sequential quadratic programming (SQP) solver to evaluate the coupled global NM-ROM. Theoretical convergence results for the SQP method and a priori and a posteriori error estimates for the DD NM-ROM with HR are provided. The proposed DD NM-ROM with HR approach is numerically compared to a DD LS-ROM with HR on the 2D steady-state Burgers’ equation, showing an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy of the proposed DD NM-ROM over the DD LS-ROM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Science Meets Physical Organic Chemistry

At the heart of synthetic chemistry is the holy grail of predictable catalyst design. In particular, researchers involved in reaction development in asymmetric catalysis have pursued a variety of strategies toward this goal. This is driven by both the pragmatic need to achieve high selectivities and the inability to readily identify why a certain catalyst is effective for a given reaction. While empiricism and intuition have dominated the field of asymmetric catalysis since its inception, enantioselectivity offers a mechanistically rich platform to interrogate catalyst-structure response patterns that explain the performance of a particular catalyst or substrate. In the early stages of an asymmetric reaction development campaign, the overarching mechanism of the reaction, catalyst speciation, the turnover limiting step, and many other details are unknown or posited based on related reactions. Considering the unclear details leading to a successful reaction, initial enantioselectivity data are often used to intuitively guide the ultimate direction of optimization. However, if the conditions of the Curtin-Hammett principle are satisfied, then measured enantioselectivity can be directly connected to the ensemble of diastereomeric transition states (TSs) that lead to the enantiomeric products, and the associated free energy difference between competing TSs (ΔΔ G ‡ = - RT ln[( S )/( R )], where ( S ) and ( R ) represent the concentrations of the enantiomeric products). We, and others, speculated that this important piece of information can be leveraged to guide reaction optimization in a quantitative way. Although traditional linear free energy relationships (LFERs), such as Hammett plots, have been used to illuminate important mechanistic features, we sought to develop data science derived tools to expand the power of LFERs in order to describe complex reactions frequently encountered in modern asymmetric catalysis. Specifically, we investigated whether enantioselectivity data from a reaction can be quantitatively connected to the attributes of reaction components, such as catalyst and substrate structural features, to harness data for asymmetric catalyst design. In this context, we developed a workflow to relate computationally derived features of reaction components to enantioselectivity using data science tools. The mathematical representation of molecules can incorporate many aspects of a transformation, such as molecular features from substrate, product, catalyst, and proposed transition states. Statistical models relating these features to reaction outputs can be used for various tasks, such as performance prediction of untested molecules. Perhaps most importantly, statistical models can guide the generation of mechanistic hypotheses that are embedded within complex patterns of reaction responses. Overall, merging traditional physical organic experiments with statistical modeling techniques creates a feedback loop that enables both evaluation of multiple mechanistic hypotheses and future catalyst design. In this Account, we highlight the evolution and application of this approach in the context of a collaborative program based on chiral phosphoric acid catalysts (CPAs) in asymmetric catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗